UNDERSTANDING THE CITY:

POPULATION AND SOCIAL

DEVELOPMENT
Carmeli Marie Chaves, EnP
Assistant Professor
29 May 2019

SCURP 2019
A Basic Course in Urban and Regional Planning
Training and Extension Services Division
3/F Cariño Hall, School of Urban and Regional Planning
University of the Philippines - Diliman, Quezon City
27-31 May 2019
Understanding the City: Population and the
Geophysical Base
OBJECTIVES OF THE DISCUSSION

 To provide participants with an understanding of the role

of population as a planning variable;
 To enable participants to link population and
development by reviewing measures of population
composition, population size and growth, and population
distribution;
 To present selected standards and regulations in social
sector planning (education, health, protective services,
social welfare, sports and recreation, housing); and
 To demonstrate the application of these standards, and
regulations in social needs assessment and planning in
the Philippine context.
Introduction
 Population as a planning variable
 as a consumer/user
 as a producer
 Population projection as an essential planning skill

 Population is related to development.

 Social development planning is essential in improving

livability.
 Population
 Education
 Health
 Protective Services
 Scoail Welfare
 Sports and Recreation
 Housing
 Social development planning in the context of the Philippine
Development Plan and UN Sustainable Development Goals
Population is related to development.

•Provides a large pool of productive and

creative human resources
•Magnet for businesses and other
activities
•Potential source of taxes and revenue for
a LGU
•Basis for the justification of certain
projects (roads, bridges, hospitals)
•May foster innovation and adaptation
Population as the object or target of
development
•It is the basis for determining the level of
basic services needed by the individuals
of a specific area (i.e. health centers, day
care services, schools, water, power, etc.)
•It can also be used as a guide to project
for the needs of certain groups (i.e.
education, recreation, housing)
Population and development

•Population processes (fertility, migration,

mortality) lead to outcomes (population
size, age-sex structure, spatial
distribution of population) which affect
various development processes
(consumption, savings behavior, public
expenditure patterns). All of these lead to
outcomes in terms of income, levels of
employment, and health status.
 Population and development
Development Processes

Population Outcomes •Consumption of goods and services

• Population size (e.g., food, health, education, housing)
• Age-sex structure •Savings/Investment
• Spatial distribution •Human capital utilization (labor)
•Physical capital utilization (land, capital,
technology)
•Environmental resource utilization
•Public expenditure

Development Outcomes
Population Processes •Income/ income distribution
• Fertility •Poverty incidence
• Mortality •Employment
• Migration •Educational status
•Health/ Nutritional status
Figure 1. Population •Quality of the labor force
and development •Environmental quality
interrelationships •Housing conditions
(Herrin/NEDA)
•Mobility and accessibility to goods and
services
Part 1

Understanding the City:

Population and the Geophysical
Base
Sources of Population Data

• Census of Population (every 10 years)

• Vital registration system (Local Civil
Registry)
• Philippine Statistics Authority
• LGU counts, e.g., Community Based
Monitoring System
Population Components

• Population size (or population level) – total

number of the members of a population
• Population composition (or population
structure) – characteristics of a population for
a particular period, e.g., age-sex composition
• Population growth – a change in population
size over two points in time as a result of
births, deaths, in-migration and out-migration
• Population distribution – spatial distribution or
location of the members of a population
Population Size

• Philippines

2000 : 76,504,077
2007 : 88,574,614
2010 : 94,013,200
2015: 100,981,437

 Quezon City
2015: 2,936,116
20 Most Populous Cities in the Philippines
Twenty most populous cities, Philippines, 2015
Rank Name Region Pop. Rank Name Region Pop.
National Capital 2,936,11 National Capital
1 Quezon City 11 Paranaque 665,822
Region 6 Region
National Capital 1,780,14
2 Manila 12 Dasmarinas Calabarzon 659,019
Region 8
1,632,99 National Capital
3 Davao City Davao Region 13 Valenzuela 620,422
1 Region
National Capital 1,583,97
4 Caloocan 14 Bacoor Calabarzon 600,609
Region 8
5 Cebu City Central Visayas 922,611 15 General Santos Soccsksargen 594,446
Zamboanga Zamboanga National Capital
6 861,799 16 Las Pinas 588,894
City Peninsula Region
National Capital National Capital
7 Taguig 804,915 17 Makati 582,602
Region Region
San Jose del
8 Antipolo Calabarzon 776,386 18 Central Luzon 574,089
Monte
National Capital Negros Island
9 Pasig 755,300 19 Bacolod 561,875
Region Region
Cagayan de Northern National Capital
10 675,950 20 Muntinlupa 504,509
Oro Mindanao Region
Quezon City

2010 population 2,173,831

2015 population 2,936,116

2010-2015 PGR 1.17%

Population by district, Quezon City

Source: www.quezoncity.gov.ph
Population Structure Sex Ratio

- the ratio between the total number of men and

the total number of women x 100

total no. of men

total no. of women
Total Population by Age Group, Sex and Sex Ratio, Philippines 2000
Total
Age Group Male Female Sex Ratio
Population

Philippines 76,504,077 38,524,267 37,979,810 101.43

Under 1 1,917,431 986,506 930,925 105.97

1 to 4 7,752,071 3,965,426 3,786,645 104.72

5 to 9 9,694,781 4,962,013 4,732,768 104.84

10 to 14 8,949,614 4,541,197 4,408,417 103.01

15 to 19 8,017,298 4,017,830 3,999,468 100.46

20 to 24 7,069,403 3,522,518 3,546,885 99.31

25 to 29 6,071,089 3,053,616 3,017,473 101.20

30 to 34 5,546,294 2,804,522 2,741,772 102.29

35 to 39 4,901,023 2,496,821 2,404,202 103.85

40 to 44 4,163,494 2,120,314 2,043,180 103.78

45 to 49 3,330,054 1,696,712 1,633,342 103.88

50 to 54 2,622,316 1,318,632 1,303,684 101.15

55 to 59 1,903,649 943,133 960,516 98.19

60 to 64 1,633,150 786,137 847,013 92.81

65 to 69 1,138,843 533,469 605,374 88.12

70 to 74 797,970 361,614 436,356 82.87

75 to 79 505,356 218,622 286,734 76.25

80 and over 490,241 195,185 295,056 66.15

Philippines: Sex ratio is 101.43
 Of the total population in 2000, about 38.5 M
(50.36%,)were males while 38.0 M (49.64%)
were females.

 Males outnumbered females with a sex ratio of

101.43 males for every 100 females.

 There were more males than females in the age

groups 0-19 and 25-54 years.

 Females dominated in the rest of the age

groups.
Age-Sex Structure, Quezon City, 2010
Age Range Male Female Total
Under 1 34,501 32,160 66,661
1-4 129,896 121,152 251,047
5-9 155,753 146,133 301,886
10-14 140,199 134,467 274,666
15-19 140,393 159,336 299,729
20-24 148,219 168,456 316,676
25-29 144,730 157,329 302,058
30-34 120,690 124,736 245,426
35-39 108,274 111,165 219,439
40-44 86,699 92,839 179,537
Sex
45-49 72,273 78,123 150,396
Ratio,
QC
50-54 57,501 63,695 121,197
94.8
55-59 39,960 43,742 83,702
60-64 24,408 29,383 53,791
65-69 15,742 21,427 37,169
70-74 10,373 15,496 25,869
75-79 6,000 9,799 15,799
80 & over 5,032 10,547 15,579
TOTAL 1,440,641 1,519,986 2,960,627
 Age-Sex Distribution, Philippines
(Population Pyramid)

Source: Philippine Statistics Authority

Age Structure of the Philippine Population

• Typical broad base at the bottom consisting of

large numbers of children and a narrow top made
up of relatively small number of elderly.

• Young dependents belonging to age group 0-14

comprised 37.01%.

• The old dependents (65 + ) accounted for 3.83%,

while 59.16% comprised the economically active
population (15 - 64).
Population Structure

Median age – the age that divides a

population into equal halves

(2015) 23.4 years

The Philippine population has a median

age of 23.4 years, slightly higher than
the 22.9 median age in 2010. This means
that half of the population is below
23.4 years old.
Dependency Ratio
= Total no. of young dependents + total no. of old dependents
working age population
= P0-14 + P65+
P15-64
Young Dependents – Ages 0-14
Old Dependents – Age 65 +
Working Population – Ages 15-64

 Indicates how many people are potentially working to

support those who are too young and too old to work.

 Does not take into account those who are of working

age but are unemployed or still studying or those who
are of dependent age but are working.
Dependency Ratio

2015 Philippine dependency ratio was

61

Every 100 persons in the working age

group (15-64) had to support about 54
young dependents and 7 old
dependents.
Addressing the Needs of Particular Age Groups

Health care – important for individuals below 15 years old,

women of childbearing ages (15-49), and the elderly

Education – demand is highest from age 5 – 20, then declines

thereafter

Food – demand is highest among young age groups, especially

teenagers

Employment – demand is highest among the working age

population (15-64)

Housing – demand peaks at ages when people start living

independently or start their own families
Relationship Between a Birth and Future Service
Requirements
 Population Growth
- Change in population size over two points in time
as a result of births, deaths, in-migration and out-
migration

Sources of population change

1. fertility
2. mortality
3. migration
Censuses of the Philippines
Average annual rate of
Year Population Source of data
increase (%)
1799 1,502,574 - Fr. Buzeta
1800 1,561,251 3.91 Fr. Zuniga
1812 1,933,331 1.80 Cedulas
1819 2,106,230 1.23 Cedulas
1829 2,593,287 2.10 Church
1840 3,096,031 1.62 Local officials
1850 3,857,424 2.22 Fr. Buzeta
1858 4,290,381 1.34 Bowring
1870 4,712,006 0.78 Guia de Manila
1877 5,567,685 2.41 Census
1887 5,984,727 0.72 Census
1896 6,261,339 0.50 Prof. Plehn's estimate based on census records.
1903 7,635,426 2.87 Census
1918 10,314,310 2.03 Census
1939 16,000,303 2.11 Census
1948 19,234,182 2.07 Census
1960 27,087,685 2.89 Census
1970 36,684,486 3.08 Census
1975 42,070,660 2.78 Census
1980 48,098,460 2.71 Census
1990 60,703,206 2.35 Census
1995 68,616,536 2.32 Census
2000 76,504,077 2.36 Census
2007 88,574,614 2.04 Census
Intercensal growth rates
Population Doubling Time
- the number of years for a population to
double
Doubling time = 0.69 Doubling Time of Various
Rates of Growth
r
Rates of Doubling
Growth (%) Time (years)
Philippines: Population to 0.5 138
double in 35 years 1 69
2 35
(at 2.00% PGR) 3 23
4 17
Population Distribution

- spread of a population over an area

(spatial distribution)
Population distribution by region: 2007
Region Total Population Percent
Philippines 88,574,614 100.00
NCR 11,553,427 13.04
CAR 1,520,743 1.72
I - Ilocos 4,545,906 5.13
II - Cagayan Valley 3,051,487 3.44
III - Central Luzon 9,720,982 10.97
IV A - Calabarzon 11,743,110 13.26
IV B - Mimaropa 2,559,791 2.89
V - Bicol 5,109,798 5.77
VI - Western Visayas 6,843,643 7.73
VII - Central Visayas 6,398,628 7.22
VIII - Eastern Visayas 3,912,936 4.42
IX - Western Mindanao 3,230,094 3.65
X - Northern Mindanao 3,952,437 4.46
XI - Southern Mindanao 4,156,653 4.69
XII - Central Mindanao 3,829,081 4.32
XIII - Caraga 2,293,480 2.59
ARMM 4,120,795 4.65
Population Density
Gross population density
No. of persons
unit of land area (hectare or sq km)
-crude since not all lands in the area are
liveable

Net population density

No. of persons
unit of alienable and disposable land
 Migration
- permanent change of residence that requires
crossing an administrative boundary from place
of origin to place of destination

Rate of migration (assumed)

= PGR of municipality/ city/ province (smaller
area) – national PGR (bigger area)

Quezon City 1.17 % (2010-2015)

NCR 1.58
(out) migration -0.41 %
Urbanization in the Philippines

• Total population (2015)

100,981,437
• PGR 1.72%
• Urbanization level 45%

Source of image: Seventide - Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0,

Source of image: http://www.geographicguide.com/asia/maps/southeast.htm
https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=32056529
Characteristics of growth
•Lopsided in favor of urban areas: poorest
agricultural regions falling behind cities in
terms of progress
•Primacy of Metro Manila and its contiguous
regions
•Urban sprawl
•Migration to cities

(Source of image: de.wallpaperswiki.org)

Urban-Rural Distribution

•The definition of an urban area varies from

country to country. In most cases, an area
is categorized as urban if the main source
of livelihood of the inhabitants is not
agriculture-related and if the population
density of the area is relatively high.
New Definition of an Urban Area
(As per NSCB Executive Board Res. No. 9, Oct. 13, 2003)

1. A barangay with a population of 5,000 or more, or

2. A barangay with at least one establishment having a
minimum of 100 employees, or
3. A barangay with at least 5 establishments, each with
a minimum of 10 employees and 5 or more facilities
within a 2-km radius from the barangay hall.
4. All barangays in the National Capital Region are
automatically classified as urban.
5. All highly urbanized cities will be subjected to criteria
1, 2 & 3 to determine which barangays are urban.
6. All other barangays are considered rural.