Probability Independent events

no times A occurs n (A)

•
A & B are independent when :
p, (a) Pr (An B) PRCA ) Pr (B)
.

= = ↳ = ✗
no .
of trials n (E)
↳ Pr IAIB ) = Pr (A)
Pr ( A ) ) PRCA ) Pr (A) (B)
'
Pr / A Pr (A) does not affect
'
: I -
(=) = I - .
Pr

Pr (A)
Pr 10 ) = 0
; Pr (E) = 1 ;
Of c- 1 Venn
diagram
Additional rules :Pr ( AUB ) -
- Pr (A) + Pr (B) -
Pr CAN B) A B A B

only a
only
A not and B not

mutually exclusive : events can't occur at the same time B

B a

↳ Pr / An B) = 0
not AnorB
↳ Pr / AU B) = Pr (A) +
Pr (B)
Pr / AUB )
A B → Events A & B don't

have outcomes in
any
A A B
common B

⇒ A & Bare
mutually
exclusive events

conditional Probability
Pr ( An B) Complement of ACA
'
) mutually Exclusive
Pr 1A B) = , Prl B) =/ 0
pr (B)
TWO -
WAY TABLE / KARNAUGHMAP MULTI -
STAGE events
WITH Replacement
A
A A
'
E ¥
B AMB A' AB B § A
¥ B
A'
' ' '
B '
AND AB B

E A A
'
1
5 4 A
g-
g
B
Pr / AAB ) PRIAAB )=Pr( A)
'
+

¥ B
PRCA 'nB)tPr(A 'nB ) : PRCA )
' '

WITHOUT Replacement
3 A
Pr / An B) tprla 'nB)=PrCB ) I

pr( ANB )+pr( A 'nB )=Pr( B )

' ' '
§ A
I
8 B

5 4- A
8
Ty
B
4

J B
 Discrete Random Variables
Discrete Random variable is one that can take -
median : middle value of distribution
only countable number of values .( do not have ↳
adding up prob until it's > 0.5

to take whole number ) -

GO.at 0.25 = 0.65

(⇒ mean : 1
Pr ( ✗ x ) (K ) :
=
=p
↳
plx ) e
Of 1 , for all x .
Mode : variable has highest probability
↳
¥ plk ) 1 = ↳ 0-4 is the highest
⇐ 0 is the mode
£
Pr / at i. b) =
aacsb plz )
•
Variance Var ( X) : how far away the ✗ values

Measures of Centre are from the mean

'
✗ 0 1 2 3 ↳ var ( x ) = El ✗ 2) -
( ECX) )
↳ Var lax + b) = a
'
Var ( X )
Prcx :X) 0.4 0.25 0.05 0.3
. Mean : Expected value ECN.ir aka .

average
-
standard deviation sdlx) ( o )
PRIX ) sd ( X ) Farci )
↳ Eliel =
adding up all ✗ ✗ ↳ =

'
↳ Elk ) : 0×0.4 -1 1×0.25 + 2×0.05 + 3×0.3 (⇒ (Sdk ) ) = Var ( X )
= 1.25 ↳ In general , for many random variables
4 E- ( ax b) + a E- (X ) + b Prt m 2 of x en -120 ) I. 0.95
-

↳ E- ( god ) =
adding up all glut ✗ PRIX)
 Binomial Distribution
General Rule ✗ ~Bi In , p ) " "
Tech -

free technique
-
n: number of trial Prlx > 1) 70.95
-

p: probability of success 1- Prlx :o) > 0.95

" Pr (11--0) < 0.05

(F)
"

Pr ( ✗ = x) =
p
"
( l -

P) ,x= 0,1 , . . .
, n 0.52
"
< 0-05
0.05
! n
loge 0.52 <
loge
where (F) =
Ncp =
× ! (n
n

-
x) ! n >
loge 0.05
0.52
= 4-58
Loge
Es n = 5 .

Graph , variance , expected value

Biln , p )
✗ n
Using spreadsheet CAS
↳ Expected value : Eu) :
np
↳ Variance : Varix )= npcl p ) -

↳ standard deviation : sdlx) :O = Var ( X )

Finding sample space

✗ ~ Bi (n , 0.48)

Define → Trial & Error

Define f.lk/=binomialCDfl2 ,
K ,
K ,
0.48 )

-
sub different values for x
 Continuous Variable
Continuous Random Variable : can take on . mis the median where
values that range over an interval of real values Pr ( Xfm ) =
2- = PRIX >m )

probability density funtion it is usually given :

•
E. g) Probability Density Function

by hybrid / piecewise function f. (x )

a

conditions
o
glx ) 30
y(x) :{ I -
sin 12711

0 ,
elsewhere
, k - I < x < k

°
1% fix)dx = 1 where 1 < k 24

Calculations
*
Notes : Prca < x ) = Pr (atx ) To find K :
Pr lack < b) lab fluidic K

%
• =

. Pr ( ✗ = a) = Sad glxldk = Flat -

Flat = 0 solve ,
I -
sin 12×10111=1 lake 4
co

. Mean : ECX) : f- as x -

flxldx ⇐, K: 1T¥ or
k=d"z
is

'
Var ( X ) = f. •
K
' -

ylk ) die -

µ
'

-
sdcx ) = Varcx )

m is

• median = f- •
Kiddie =/ m flxldx =
f-
Normal Distribution
Normal Distribution
: a
perfectly symmetric
continuous random variable defined by the Bell Curve Exact value of Normal Distribution
Pr within 10

General Rules ✗ ~
N ( µ 02) ,
'
Pr ( n -
o < x <
u to ) = 0.68
meat ↳ variance / Gda )]
Pr ( -1 C Z C 1) = 0.68
. Area under entire curve is 1 Pr within 20

.
Mean : E- ( X ) = u Pr (n -
20 < x <
µ -1 201=0.95
.
Variance : Var (X ) = o
'
Pr f -
2 < 2 < 2) = 0 95 .

.
Standard deviation : sell ✗ 1=0 Pr within 30
U -
o it µ to

Pr (µ -
30 < a <
µ -1301=0.997
Standard Normal Distribution : Z -
N lo , 1) Pr C- 3<2 < 3) = 0.997
-
Pr ( 2 2) + Pr ( 2 > 2) 1
< = Inverse Normal + CAS techniques
. Pr ( 2 < 2) = Pr ( 2 > 2)
-
Inverse Normal Normal Cbf
.
Pr ( 2 > 0 ) : 0.5
.
Pr ( a < 2 < b) Pr ( 2 < b) = -
Pr ( 2 < a)

Transform to / from Standard Normal Distribution

X -
U
z =
V ; K = Oz +
µ

Pr ( a ex < b) where
a = lower ; b =
upper
 Sampling and Estimation
p
Sample distribution of Proportion for Binomial

Sample is a subset
of population Pr la c Ñ < b = Pr ( na e ✗ < n b)
p
.

.
Pr I Ñ > a) = Pr ( X > na )
.
Mean : ECÑ ) = Eth ) =
In ECX) =
ntnp =p
Population Proportion population : is a setof eligible
all In short : ECM =p
'
numbers of a
group It has
. a fixed probability .
Variance : Var (F) = Var (¥ ) =
#) var (X )

number of the attribute

=
÷ np ( I p )
-
=
PILI
p =
total size
( fixed ) In short : var (B) =
P"_¥
. Standard deviation : sd (B) = Var (D)
" P'
Sample proportion sample proportion is the sdlri ) =P
-

: ratio
n

of successful outcomes to the sample size

number of sample with attribute
Random sample size
p = ( Variable )
sample size
Main →
Keyboard →
catalogue → R → Rand List

p^ can be used as an estimate of p (n , start ,

end ) CAS techniques
• n = Sample size randy :
get a random no

Ñ
.

=
¥ where ✗ is a binomial random variable . start ,
end = domain rand ( range) get
: a random no

in the given range

→ Ñ c- ( 0 , In %
, ,
- - -

, ¥ 1) , randlistl domain ) get :

"
domain '

random numbers
Sample distribution of Proportion for Normal for : a confidence Intervals

sufficiently large sample size the distribution is

,

PY
ri
"n-Ñ) krill
-

approximately normally distributed . CI :( pi -

k , pit n
F- Nlu 04 ,

EIB ) =p Ñlhpj
Mean : k :
margin of error
Pll p) n
-

Variance : var ( ✗ > =

n
P"
-
Ñ
ri " PY
standard deviation : sdlx ) = 95% CI : K 1.96 ; CI c- (p -1.96
Blinn
-

:
, pi -11.96
n
n

i. Ñn Nlp , P''n) 90% CI : K : 1.64 ; CI c- (p -1.64

till B)
n
-

, pi -11.64
ri " PY
n
-

Probabily tips 99% CI : K 2.58 ; CI c- (pi ri " PY

I)
P' "
-

: - 2.58
n
, B -12.58

Population vs Sample small sample ( DISTRIBUTION TABU ) LARGE SAMPLE ( GRAPH )

SMALL population PROBABILITY TREE WITH WITHOUT Replacement

COUNTING METHODS WITHOUT Replacement

BINOMIAL WITH Replacement

HYPERGEOMETRIC WITHOUT Replacement

IRGE Population Binomial DISTRIBUTION NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

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