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Officer Safety

Paul C. Wood
Dominating Your Operational Environment

How to adjust risk variables to increase

officer safety
Risk tolerance on the job is ultimately a personal matter where the
most effective cops incorporate risk management practices into daily
decision-making

Sep 5, 2014

Public Duty Doctrine (PDD) discusses the extent to which a legal obligation exists for sworn law
enforcement officers to protect the public or risk their lives in the performance of duty. While most
LEOs feel a level of responsibility to the public well beyond the minimal obligations found in PDD
and law, risk tolerance on the job is ultimately a personal matter where the most effective cops
incorporate risk management practices into daily decision-making. 

Doing so allows cops to avoid perceiving risk as “just part of the job” — an attitude that can
desensitize  the matter with potentially disastrous consequences. 

Let’s put the concept of risk under the spotlight — specifically risk to the officer of severe injury or
death in the line of duty — and suggest a framework to conceptualize the variables and best
manage the operational environment. 

Risk, Defined

Risk — in the context of this effort — is a measure of overall exposure to hazard. It falls into four
categories: high, significant, moderate, and low.

Law enforcement organizations should strive to manage steady state, daily risk at a ‘moderate’
level or below, while accepting occasional incursions into the ‘significant’ category and exposure to
‘high’ risk by exception only. In order to affect this, it is necessary to understand risk as a function
of three variables: 

1. Probability: This considers the likelihood of encountering a situation where loss of life or
severe bodily injury exists to the officer.
 2. Vulnerability: This considers an officer’s susceptibility to severe bodily injury or death
during an actual incident.

3. Consequence: This considers the impact of an attack to the officer as well as non-officer
centric second and third order effects (primarily impacts to loved ones).

Risk = Probability x Vulnerability x Consequence

Managing risk at or below a certain level requires manipulating the magnitude of each variable as
much as reasonably possible to optimize the desired risk outcome. What follows is a basic look —
neither prescriptive nor definitive — at each of the risk variables to understand the fundamentals
behind their inputs and potential for mitigation.

Probability

Probability considers the likelihood of encountering a situation where there exists the potential for
loss of life or severe bodily injury. It is an expression of your operational environment. Probability
assessment involves developing a list of possible situations and determining the likelihood of
encountering them expressed in terms of being very likely, probable, possible, or unlikely. 

Potential assessment areas include:

•    Likelihood of a violent encounter 

•    Likelihood of an automobile related accident (in or out of your car)

•    Likelihood of exposure to stress and associated ailments 

•    Likelihood of exposure to lethal or debilitating pathogens

•    Likelihood of environmental hazards (floods, fires, HAZMAT)

Mitigation

Crime and violence demographics of a given patrol area or work environment (jails/prisons),
participation in certain units (high-risk felony units, drug task forces, special response teams),
frequency of vehicle stops in high traffic areas, operations in adverse weather and sustained night
operations are some of the more significant determinants of probability assessments. 

Mitigating these issues is often beyond the reasonable span of control of most cops — doing so
would likely come at the cost of performing a cop’s duty. This is often where the dangerous
attitude of risk being “just part of the job” originates, as doing so overlooks the potential impact of
addressing the other two risk variables. 

Vulnerability

The most significant impact an officer can have on the risk equation lies in addressing
vulnerabilities. This considers your ability to detect, deter, defend against and/or defeat an attack
or to avoid or survive an otherwise life-threatening situation as outlined in the probability section. 

While many valid constructs exist to assess an officer’s vulnerability, this effort uses Massad
Ayoob’s “four priorities for survival” as a starting point with the addition of a non-prioritized area
for physical fitness. 

Ratings of excellent, good, fair, and poor characterize these assessment areas. 
Potential assessment areas (prioritized) include:

1.    Mental awareness and preparedness 

2.    Application of appropriate tactics 

3.    Skill/familiarity with safety equipment 

4.    Equipment selection

5.    Physical fitness

Mitigation

•    Priority #1: Situational awareness — mindset that anticipates and sees an attack — and
the will to live

•    Priority #2: Maintaining a position of dominance during suspect searches, approaches and
interactions — use of appropriate arrest control techniques; hand-hand combative skills; use
of cover and concealment; appropriate use of back-up; maneuvering under fire; effective
communications 

•    Priority #3: Weapons safety — ability to effectively employ primary and backup weapons
systems; familiarity with self/first aid; emergency driving competency (to include use of seat
belts)

•    Priority #4: Appropriately suited personal protection equipment — firearms, ammunition,
body armor, less lethal equipment, radios, restraints, eye protection, footwear, vehicles 

•    Priority #5: Physical fitness — physical ability to execute appropriate tactics and prevail in
physical altercations; prevention of stress-related ailments

Consequence

Severe injury and death are enduring hazards for LEOs. Arguably, most efforts should center on
ensuring harmful incidents do not occur in the first place through analysis and mitigation of
probability and vulnerability. 

However, this does not mean consequence mitigation measures are unimportant as they focus on
lessening incident impact to officers and their families. 

Mitigation/Consequence Management:

•    Comprehensive health care

•    Adequate life insurance 

•    Personal affairs in order – financial, advanced directives, will, power of attorney

•    Personal relationships in order 

•    Physical fitness (as it applies to aiding recovery)

•    Mental state (will to survive and carry on through recovery)

Final Analysis

Treating the three risk variables as individual “dials” which can be regulated to zero to eliminate
risk is not practical in police work — there will always be inherent risk in wearing the badge. While
probability is relatively difficult to manipulate, it is possible to affect significant influence over
consequence and most importantly to survival, vulnerability. 

How much you choose to take advantage of these opportunities often boils down to an individual
decision — one that will be the largest contributor to the magnitude of risk you face on a daily
basis. 

About the author

Lieutenant Colonel Paul C. Wood is assigned to North American Aerospace Defense Command and United States Northern
Command (NORAD and USNORTHCOM), Peterson Air Force Base, Colorado where he works in the J5 Plans, Policy and Strategy
Division, as the Branch Chief for Homeland Defense Strategy, Policy and Doctrine.

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