Learning Objectives: After studying the unit, the students should be able to:

● Define demography

● Describe and explain the theory of demographic transition and its effect on global population

● Identify the effects of overpopulation on the economic

welfare Global Demography

Demography: Meaning and Its Origin

The term demography was derived from the Greek words demos for “population” and graphia for
“description” or “writing,” thus the phrase, “writings about population.” 181 It was coined by Achille
Guillard, a Belgian statistician, in 1855. However, the origins of modern demography can be traced back
to the John Graunt’s analysis of ‘Bills of Mortality’ which was published in 1662. 182

By its meaning, as cited by Tulchinsky, demography refers to the study of populations, with reference to
size and density, fertility, mortality, growth, age distribution, migration, and vital statistics and the
interaction of all these with social and economic conditions”. As such, demography is based on vital
statistics reporting and special surveys of population size and density; it measures trends over time. 183

Demographic transition started in mid- or late 1700’s in Europe. During that time, death rates and fertility
began to decline. High to low fertility happened 200 years in France and 100 years in the United States. In
other parts of the world, the transition began later. It was only in the 20 th century that mortality decline
in Africa and Asia, with the exemption of Japan. In India, life expectancy in India was only 24 years in the
early 20th century while the same life expectancy occurred in China in 1929 until 1931. Fertility decline
in Asia did not begin until the 1950’s and so on. 184 In the case of Japan, it was until the 1930’s that “total
fertility rate did not drop below five births per woman” 185 This resulted in rapid population growth
after the Second World War affecting the age structure of Asia and the developing world. Specifically, the
baby boom in the developing world was caused by the decline of infant and child mortality rates. The
West, on the other hand, experienced baby boom that resulted from rising birth rates.

Effect of Demographic Transition

A remarkable effect of the demographic transition is ‘the enormous gap in life expectancy that emerged
between Japan and the West on the one hand and the rest of the world on the other.” By 1820, the life
expectancy at birth of Japan and the West was 12 years greater than that of other countries. It increased
by 20 years by 1900. Although there was an improvement in life expectancy all throughout the world in
1900-1950, the gap had reached 22 years. In 1999, the gap declined to 14 years. These differences in time
of transition affected the global population. During the 19th century, Europe and the West had an
increased in share in the world’s population, from 22.0 percent to 33.0 percent, while Asia and Oceania’s
contribution dropped from 69.0 percent to 56.7. India and China suffered from economic stagnation and
decline during that time. 186

There was a reverse in global population shares during the 20th century as Africa, Asia, Latin America,
and Oceania had high levels of population growth rates. Population growth shows a more remarkable
shift: “Between 1820 and 1980, 69.3 percent of the world’s population growth occurred in Europe and
Western offshoots. Between 1950 and 2000, however, only 11.7 percent occurred in the region.” 187
The United States projected that population growth will be shifted toward Africa. It is estimated that by
2150, the region’s share to the world population will be almost 20 percent, relatively much greater than
its share in 1820 (seven percent) and in 1900 (six percent). Also, in 2150, there will be a projected
increase of two billion if we combine the population of Asia, Latin America, and Oceania.

In terms of age structure, the overall trend in Japan and the West was downward until 1950. Their
dependency ratio was close to 0.5. It only increased, although temporary, when the baby boom after the
Second World War occurred. Japan’s dependency ratio, however, increased between 1888 and 1920. its
dependency ratio was higher than the West between 1920 and the early 1950’s. It dropped in 1970 and
later since its precipitous decline in childbearing during the 1950’s and low fertility rates in recent years.

The developing countries like India and the Philippines had higher dependency ratios than the West in
1900. A great increase in dependency ratio was caused by the decline in infant and child mortality and
high levels of fertility, with its peak around 1970.

Dependency ratios started to disappear because there is a decline in global birth rate. Furthermore, the
gap in fertility between the West and the less developed countries became smaller by the 21 st century.
Over the next 50 years, the cases of dependency ratios of these two areas in the world will be reversed.
188 The aging populations will cause a rise in dependency ratio, starting in the West.

Theory of Demographic Transition

Demographic transition theory suggests that future population growth will develop along a
predictable four- or five-stage model.189

Stage 1

In stage one, pre-industrial society, death rates and birth rates are high and roughly in balance. An
example of this stage is the United States in the 1800s. All human populations are believed to have had
this balance until the late 18th century, when this balance ended in Western Europe. In fact, growth rates
were less than 0.05% at least since the Agricultural Revolution over 10,000 years ago.

Population growth is typically very slow in this stage, because the society is constrained by the available
food supply; therefore, unless the society develops new technologies to increase food production (e.g.
discovers new sources of food or achieves higher crop yields), any fluctuations in birth rates are soon
matched by death rates.

Stage 2

In stage two, that of a developing country, death rates drop rapidly due to improvements in food supply
and sanitation, which increase life spans and reduce disease. Afghanistan is currently in this stage.

The improvements specific to food supply typically include selective breeding and crop rotation and
farming techniques. Other improvements generally include access to technology, basic healthcare, and
education. For example, numerous improvements in public health reduce mortality, especially childhood
mortality. Prior to the mid-20th century, these improvements in public health were primarily in the areas
of food handling, water supply, sewage, and personal hygiene. Another variable often cited is the increase
in female literacy combined with public health education programs which emerged in the late 19th and
early 20th centuries.
In Europe, the death rate decline started in the late 18th century in northwestern Europe and spread to
the south and east over approximately the next 100 years. Without a corresponding fall in birth rates this
produces an imbalance, and the countries in this stage experience a large increase in population.

Stage 3

In stage three, birth rates fall. Mexico’s population is at this stage. Birth rates decrease due to various
fertility factors such as access to contraception, increases in wages, urbanization, a reduction in subsistence
agriculture, an increase in the status and education of women, a reduction in the value of children’s work,
an increase in parental investment in the education of children and other social changes. Population
growth begins to level off. The birth rate decline in developed countries started in the late 19th century in
northern Europe.

While improvements in contraception do play a role in birth rate decline, it should be noted that
contraceptives were not generally available nor widely used in the 19th century and as a result likely did
not play a significant role in the decline then.

It is important to note that birth rate decline is caused also by a transition in values; not just because of
the availability of contraceptives.

Stage 4

During stage four, there are both low birth rates and low death rates. Birth rates may drop to well below
replacement level as has happened in countries like Germany, Italy, and Japan, leading to a shrinking
population, a threat to many industries that rely on population growth. Sweden is considered to currently
be in Stage 4.

As the large group born during stage two ages, it creates an economic burden on the shrinking working
population. Death rates may remain consistently low or increase slightly due to increases in lifestyle
diseases due to low exercise levels and high obesity and an aging population in developed countries. By
the late 20th century, birth rates and death rates in developed countries leveled off at lower rates.

Stage 5 (Debated)

Some scholars delineate a separate fifth stage of below-replacement fertility levels. Others hypothesize a
different stage five involving an increase in fertility. The United Nations Population Fund (2008)
categorizes nations as high-fertility, intermediate-fertility, or low-fertility. The United Nations (UN)
anticipates the population growth will triple between 2011 and 2100 in high-fertility countries, which
are currently concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa.

For countries with intermediate fertility rates (the United States, India, and Mexico all fall into this
category), growth is expected to be about 26 percent. Low-fertility countries like China, Australia, and
most of Europe will actually see population decline of approximately 20 percent.

References:

Global Demography

181. Poston,Jr. D. and Leon F. Bouvier. (2016). An Introduction to Demography. Cambridge University Press. Retrieved
from https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/population-and- society/an- introduction-to-
demography/A646239C30C3E41F767594F87E920FFF
182. Timaeus, I. M. (n.d.). Demography Retrieved from
http://www.medicine.mcgill.ca/epidemiology/hanley/c609/Material/DemographyEoB.pdf

183. Tulchinsky, T. H. and Elena A. Varavikova. (2014). The new public health (Third Edition), measuring, monitoring and evaluating the
health of population. Retrieved from https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/social-sciences/demographic-transition

184. Aldama, P.K. R. (2018). The Contemporary World. Manila: Rex Book Store

185. Shigeyuki, A., La Croix, S.J., & Mason, A. (2002). Population and globalization. Southeast Asian Studies. 40, (3)

186.Ibid.

187. Ibid.

188.Ibid.

189.Caldwell, J. (2006). Demographic Transition Theory. Springer: Australia. Retrieved from books.google.com