Crime, Security & Risk Management

Lead & Lag Indicator Debates Where Danger & Harm Reside In-Between

Tony Ridley MSc CSyP CAS MSyl

Risk, Security, Safety, Resilience & Management Sciences (Applied) www.risk-management.au
Crime, Security & Risk Management: Indicators, Harm & Danger

Crime is possibly the worst primer for action when it comes to security and risk
management. Because what constitutes crime or is reported as crime is far
from real-world realities and the occurrence of criminal activity (including
harm, loss and violence) that are reported and captured by either law
enforcement or the justice system.

In other words, crime as a number or reported event is an exceptionally

incomplete and inaccurate lag indicator for the consideration of security and
risk management measures, inclusive of protection of assets.

Tony Ridley MSc CSyP CAS MSyl

Risk, Security, Safety, Resilience & Management Sciences (Applied) www.risk-management.au
Crime, Security & Risk Management: Indicators, Harm & Danger

Remembering that security and risk management is a pre-emptive,

preventative pursuit of protection of assets, not reactionary, which
remains the dominant function of law enforcement.

As a result, over reliance or exclusive measurement of crime as a

metric for security and risk management action exposes people,
information, processes, resources and profits to real-world threats,
harms, danger, harm and risk.
Tony Ridley MSc CSyP CAS MSyl
Risk, Security, Safety, Resilience & Management Sciences (Applied) www.risk-management.au
Crime, Security & Risk Management: Indicators, Harm & Danger

A word of caution though.

Security and risk management is

laden with imaginary,
improbable or generic threat
actor narratives.

That is, 'there are bad actors,

criminals and terrorist' on every
street corner and every city

Tony Ridley MSc CSyP CAS MSyl

Risk, Security, Safety, Resilience & Management Sciences (Applied) www.risk-management.au
Crime, Security & Risk Management: Indicators, Harm & Danger

Analysis, intelligence, expertise

and training are required to
adequately evaluate threats,
vulnerability and scales of
risk...and resulting measures of
proportional security
management.

Tony Ridley MSc CSyP CAS MSyl

Risk, Security, Safety, Resilience & Management Sciences (Applied) www.risk-management.au
Crime, Security & Risk Management: Indicators, Harm & Danger

In short, professionals and amateurs alike make false

judgements of crime, threat and harm all the time.

Even in the face of statistical and analytical data that

contradicts and disproves highly subjective, heuristic and ex-
ante forecasts so prevalent across the security industry and
management activities of private/public entities.

Tony Ridley MSc CSyP CAS MSyl

Risk, Security, Safety, Resilience & Management Sciences (Applied) www.risk-management.au
Crime, Security & Risk Management: Indicators, Harm & Danger

Critical understanding and analysis of how crime statistics are formed

and the inherent variables and weaknesses remains an under
estimated and poorly understood factor within security and risk
management doctrine, education and industry practices.

Moreover, professionals need to critique and challenge the 'group

think', even it if produced by government agencies and actors.

Tony Ridley MSc CSyP CAS MSyl

Risk, Security, Safety, Resilience & Management Sciences (Applied) www.risk-management.au
Crime, Security & Risk Management: Indicators, Harm & Danger

Crime
Statistics
Compilation
and
Reporting:
Realities

Tony Ridley MSc CSyP CAS MSyl

Risk, Security, Safety, Resilience & Management Sciences (Applied) www.risk-management.au
Crime, Security & Risk Management: Indicators, Harm & Danger

Further misunderstood or inadequately considered is

the inter-related layers that enable or deter criminal
activity.

It is more than just a victim to offender relationship.

Tony Ridley MSc CSyP CAS MSyl

Risk, Security, Safety, Resilience & Management Sciences (Applied) www.risk-management.au
Crime, Security & Risk Management: Indicators, Harm & Danger

Oversight, intervention,
protective agents (security,
law enforcement, etc) and
environment all influence,
enable and modify the crime
opportunity and intervention
dimensions.

Tony Ridley MSc CSyP CAS MSyl

Risk, Security, Safety, Resilience & Management Sciences (Applied) www.risk-management.au
Crime, Security & Risk Management: Indicators, Harm & Danger

In sum, if you wait for crime or statistics that confirm extremely

limited occurrences/visibility of crime, you are exposing your assets
and organisation to preventable loss, harm, danger and risk.
However, this does not invite a siege mentality or that 'evil' lurks in
every corner. Qualified and quantified analysis, intelligence and
evaluation is required to inform security and risk management
pursuits, of which crime statistics represents an essential but very
small contribution.

Tony Ridley MSc CSyP CAS MSyl

Risk, Security, Safety, Resilience & Management Sciences (Applied) www.risk-management.au