called ‘the coverage factor’ k. The commonly quoted expanded uncertainty corresponding to confidence level of 95% is obtained by choosing k While presenting the final result, if the calculated expectation value of the result is represented by R and the expanded combined standard uncertainty by uc, then the final result is to be stated as R + 2u, and its meaning is that the probability of finding the value of the quantity between R-2u, and R+ 2u, is 95%. PROPAGATION OF UNCERTAINTIES If the result R of an experiment (called output) can either be a direct measurement or an indirect measurement based on measurements of quantities X, Y, ..Z, etc.,(called inputs) in the experiment. We can express mathematically R as a function of X, Y, ..Z. In symbols, R AX Y, .2). When the errors AX, AY, .. AZ are small, we can express the error in R as ao a sR=—ax + ars ex oy The partial differential coefficients as well as the errors can have either posi negative signs and so if the signs of errors in the measured quantities are known that information has to be used while summing the terms. This becomes important in the evaluation of worst case errors due to systema or errors in measurements. This formula can be called the formula for propagation of errors in measurements. The observed values of the inputs X,Y, Zetc., are the best estimates of the inputs and they are represented by lower case letters x, y, 2, etc., Similarly, the output determined from these measurements is the estimate of the output and is denoted by y. ‘Applying this formula in some simple cases the expressions for error propagation can be obtained for ready reference as shown below. If A and B represent expressions with no measured quantity common to both of them then the following expressions giving the maximum uncertainty are valid R=A+B then AR=AA+AB. then AR=AA- AB. R=AB then AR/R = AA/A + \B/B. R=NB then AR/R = AA/A- AB/B. R=A" or A” then AR/R=n(AA/A).R=InA then AR= AAA, R=expA then AR/R = AA or alternately, AR = R MA. re eee tena (O22 ae A+B ieee. VA ‘The value of AR given by the above formula will represent the worst case error. systematic errors (Type B) are of fixed magnitude and sign and from the above formulas we see that these errors may get cancelled under certain conditions. For example, when the systematic error in both A and B is identical R = A ~ B is free from error. Similarly, when AA/A = AB/B, R= A/Bis independent of effect of errors in A and B. When the magnitudes AX, AY, .. AZ etc., of the worst case error in X, ¥,...2 etc, are known but not their signs, then principles of probability are to be used while combining the terms as is done in case of random errors. With the available information about these errors appropriate probability distribution functions (PDF) is assigned to their distributions and standard uncertainties for those distributions are evaluated. The combined standard uncertainty is then obtained by by using the formula for propagation of uncertainties as described below. But there is one exception for this rule. When measurements of different quantities are interdependent the absolute values of worst case errors are to be added to get the worst case error in the result. The standard uncertainty is then evaluated by assigning the appropriate PDF for the distribution. (All terms with minus signs are to be replaced with plus signs in the above formulas before combining.) ‘The so called theory of errors was developed to estimate the uncertainty in the result due to random errors in measurements. The theory is applicable to data which are free of systematic errors. Random errors are supposed to be due to cumulative effect of a very large number of independent causes and so it is expected that it is more likely that the magnitude of such error is small but equally likely to have positive or negative sign. While considering the propagation of errors the terms like AX AY... AZ etc,, in the above expression are to be replaced by a terms which will take into account the fact of their random variations. According to the theory if the number of observations is infinite then the mean of the readings should give the true value because every positive error will get cancelled by equal negative error in the sum. But since the set of readings for measurement of a quantity consists of a finite number n, the mean may differ from the true value. The difference between the two is the error by definition. Since the true value is unknown, the exercise of evaluating the uncertainty consists of defining an interval, (with the mean of the readings at 6