Lingxiao Ying, Hujiao Cheng, Zehao Shen, Pingao Guan, Caifang Luo, Xingzi Peng,

Relative humidity and agricultural activities dominate wildfire ignitions in

Yunnan, Southwest China: Patterns, thresholds, and implications,
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,
Volume 307,
2021,
108540,
ISSN 0168-1923,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108540.
(https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192321002240)
Abstract: Wildfires are land-surface processes and ecological disturbances
occurring around the world. The wildfire regime in Yunnan Province of Southwest
China is recognized as similar to that of the adjoining Indo-China Peninsula, a
global hotspot for wildfires. However, the ignition mechanisms in this region
remain unclear, with interactions among ecosystem features, local agricultural
activities, and fire weather controlled by the West Pacific and Indian Ocean
monsoons. Based on the ground records of 5145 confirmed wildfire events in Yunnan
during the period of 2003–2015, we used a logistic regression model to estimate the
local environmental controls on wildfire ignitions. Results highlighted the primary
role of meteorology-driven characters, especially the prevalent importance of daily
minimum relative humidity across the region. The threshold of the relative humidity
was 37.48% ± 15.60% for the 50% ignition probability. Relative humidity also
dominated ignition over years, with fuel conditions relatively stable and playing a
minor role in contrast to the inter-annual climate changes. Moreover, agriculture-
related ignition comprised most wildfire records, and human activities deeply
shaped the spatiotemporal patterns of ignition. The distance to the nearest village
was the primary factor during the beginning of the agricultural season, with a
farming radius of 1.2 km as a key threshold for ignition. The complementary roles
among influential factors were prominent at county scale. Among counties, the
variation of ignition mechanisms corresponded to the influence paths of the two
monsoons. This study highlights the importance of ground wildfire records in
deriving critical wildfire ignition information such as environmental thresholds
and change rates, which can provide important insights for sustainable forest
management in this region, including wildfire monitoring, ignition control, fuel
structure adjusting, and implementing differentiated strategies for fire prevention
with regard to the environmental contexts.
Keywords: Wildfire ignition; Relative humidity; Agricultural activity; Threshold;
Yunnan province in China