Indo Tambangraya Megah

Bloomberg: ITMG.IJ | Reuters: ITMG.JK

Coal Mining Sector
4 March 2021 JCI Index: 6,376

BUY (from Sell) Demand Recovery and Stable Prices

Target Price (IDR) 14,200 (from 13,550)
Pendapatan tumbuh +43% qoq pada 4Q20, didukung oleh kenaikan volume penjualan
Potential Upside (%) 19.1
sebesar +35% qoq menjadi 5.8 juta ton dengan ASP pada level USD 52.7/t (3Q20: USD
Price Comparison 48.8/t). Kenaikan permintaan pada negara tujuan ekspor yang mengalami musim
Cons. Target Price (IDR) 14,962 dingin menjadi pendorong kenaikan harga dan penjualan pada 4Q20. SSI
SSI vs. Cons. (%) 94.91 memproyeksikan ASP FY21-22F di level USD 59.5-55.3/t (2020: USD 53.5/t). Kami
menaikkan rekomendasi menjadi BUY dengan TP IDR 14,200, merefleksikan 12.1x P/E
Stock Information FY21F.
Last Price (IDR) 11,925 Penurunan laba bersih -69.5% yoy seiring meningkatnya beban. Meskipun terjadi
Shares Issued (Mn) 1,130 penurunan biaya pendapatan dan operasional masing-masing sebesar -29% yoy dan -
Market Cap. (IDR Bn) 13,474 34.8% yoy, beban perusahaan lainnya meningkat. Beban keuangan naik menjadi USD
52-Weeks High/Low (IDR) 15,700/5,650 3.5 juta (2019: USD 1.5 juta) sementara pendapatan keuangan turun menjadi USD 3
3M Avg. Daily Value (IDR Bn) 74.9 juta (2019: USD 6.2 juta). Selain itu, perusahaan juga mencatat kerugian dari swap
Free Float (%) 34.7 batubara dan BBM sebesar USD 7 juta (2019: laba sebesar USD 11.3 juta) serta kerugian
Shareholder Structure:
kurs sebesar USD 4 juta (2019: laba sebesar USD 4.3 juta). Kondisi tersebut berefek
pada bottom line ITMG yang melemah -69.5% yoy menjadi USD 39.5 juta (2019: USD
Banpu Minerals (%) 65.1
129.4 juta).
Public (%) 34.9
Volume penjualan 4Q20 tumbuh +35% qoq. Volume penjualan turun -16% yoy menjadi
Stock Performance 21.2 juta ton pada 2020, dengan ASP sebesar USD 53.5/t (2019: USD 64.6/t). Meski
(%) YTD 1M 3M 12M demikian, pada 4Q20 volume penjualan meningkat +35% qoq menjadi 5.8 juta ton
Absolute (13.9) 2.1 (20.0) 7.9
dengan ASP USD 52.7/t (3Q20: USD 48.8/t). Kenaikan volume penjualan dan harga
batubara mendorong pendapatan ITMG naik +43% qoq pada 4Q20. SSI
JCI Return 6.7 4.9 9.5 15.5
memproyeksikan penjualan batubara FY21F-22F sebesar 21.2-21.5 juta ton (+0.2% yoy
Relative (20.6) (2.8) (29.5) (7.6)
dan +1.3% yoy) dengan perkiraan ASP FY21-22F pada level USD 59.5-55.3/t. Harga
batubara acuan kami proyeksikan stabil di level USD 70-65/t.
Stock Price & Volumes, 12M
20,000 35 Pulihnya permintaan dan stabilnya harga. Rata-rata harga batubara Newcastle selama
30 YTD2021 berada pada level USD 84/ton. Pada 4Q20, terjadi peningkatan harga
15,000 25 batubara menjadi USD 68.2/ton dari 3Q20 sebesar USD 53.5/ton seiring meningkatnya
10,000
20
permintaan saat musim dingin. Kami memperkirakan harga akan kembali ke level
15
sebelumnya setelah musim dingin berakhir. SSI memperkirakan harga batubara global
10
5,000 FY21F-22F akan stabil pada level USD 70-65/ton. Dari sisi ekspor, eksposur ITMG ke
5
China yang sebesar 22% (FY20) diperkirakan masih akan bertahan seiring masih
IDR

- -
Millions

Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 berlanjutnya pembatasan impor China dari Australia.
Volume (RHS) Last Price
Menaikkan rekomendasi, BUY TP IDR 14,200. TP SSI merefleksikan PE FY21-22F 12.1-
15.9x dengan potensi upside +19.1.%. Saat ini ITMG berada pada -1 SD 5-Year PE band.

Company Background Forecasts and Valuations (@ IDR 11,925 per share)

PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG) adalah Y/E Dec 19A 20A 21F 22F 23F
perusahaan tambang batubara di Indonesia yang Revenue (USD Mn) 1,716 1,185 1,304 1,246 1,254
memiliki cadangan batubara sebanyak 335 juta ton EBITDA (USD Mn) 225 143 149 120 141
dengan produksi tahunan 23.4 juta ton. Wilayah EV/EBITDA (x) 3.3 6.3 4.7 5.4 4.1
operasi ITMG berada di kawasan Kalimantan Tengah
Net Profit (USD Mn) 129 39 77 59 73
dan Kalimantan Timur.
EPS (USD) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
EPS Growth (%) (50) (67) 69 (23) 25
P/E Ratio (x) 7.0 21.1 12.4 16.2 13.0
BVPS (USD) 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8
P/BV Ratio (x) 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0
DPS (USD) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dessy Lapagu Dividend Yield (%) 22.9 5.8 1.8 3.5 2.7
+62 21 2854 8392 ROAE (%) 14.0 4.6 8.8 6.5 8.0
dessy.lapagu@samuel.co.id ROAA (%) 9.8 3.3 6.3 4.6 5.8
Interest Coverage (x) 120.5 29.9 6.3 4.6 6.4
Net Gearing (%) n.c. n.c. n.c. n.c. n.c.

www.samuel.co.id Page 1 of 4
Indo Tambangraya Megah
Bloomberg: ITMG.IJ | Reuters: ITMG.JK
Coal Mining Sector
4 March 2021 JCI Index: 6,376

Exhibit 1. Financial Results

(USD Mn) 4Q19 3Q20 4Q20 yoy (%) qoq (%) FY19 FY20 yoy (%) FY20/Cons (%) FY20/SSI (%)
Revenue 411 219 313 (23.7) 43.0 1,716 1,185 (30.9) 99.4 94.0
Gros s Profi t 89 46 59 (33.2) 29.4 327 199 (39.0) 100.9 98.4
Opera ti ng Profi t 46 25 42 (9.6) 69.6 181 104 (42.4) 108.1 121.9
Net Profi t 28 10 (0.5) n/a n/a 129 39 (69.5) 61.9 63.6

Gros s Ma rgi n (%) 21.6 20.9 18.9 (2.7) ppt (2.0) ppt 19.0 16.8 (2.2) ppt
Opera ti ng Ma rgi n (%) 11.2 11.2 13.3 2.1 ppt 2.1 ppt 10.5 8.8 (1.8) ppt
Net Ma rgi n (%) 6.9 4.6 (0.2) (7.0) ppt (4.7) ppt 7.5 3.3 (4.2) ppt
Source: Company Data, SSI Research

Exhibit 2. Forecast Changes

New Old Change (%)
21F 22F 23F 21F 22F 23F 21F 22F 23F
Production Vol ume (mi l l i on ton) 19.3 19.6 19.7 23.8 27.2 29.4 (19.0) (28.2) (33.0)
Sa l es Vol ume (mi l l i on ton) 21.2 21.5 21.7 25.9 29.6 31.9 (17.9) (27.3) (32.2)
ASP (USD/ton) 59.5 55.3 55.3 60.3 59.5 58.7 (1.4) (7.2) (5.8)
Coa l Pri ce (USD/ton) 70.0 65.0 65.0 68.0 67.1 66.1 2.9 (3.1) (1.7)

Revenue (USD Mn) 1,304 1,246 1,254 1,594 1,802 1,919 (18.2) (30.9) (34.7)
Opera ting Profi t (USD Mn) 95 70 97 94 133 153 0.5 (47.4) (36.6)
EBITDA (USD Mn) 149 120 141 135 163 171 10.2 (26.6) (17.3)
Net Profi t (USD Mn) 77 59 73 70 96 110 10.0 (38.8) (33.3)
EPS (USD) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 10.0 (38.8) (33.3)
BVPS (USD) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 35.6 58.4 110.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 4.7 5.4 4.1 7.3 6.1 6.0 (36.1) (12.1) (32.1)
P/E Ra tio (x) 12.4 16.2 13.0 16.7 12.2 10.6 (25.7) 33.5 22.6
P/BV Ra tio (x) 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.8 2.0 2.6 (39.7) (48.4) (61.3)
Source: SSI Research

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Indo Tambangraya Megah
Bloomberg: ITMG.IJ | Reuters: ITMG.JK
Coal Mining Sector
4 March 2021 JCI Index: 6,376

Key Financial Figures

Profit and Loss Cash Flow

Y/E Dec (USD Mn) 19A 20A 21F 22F 23F Y/E Dec (USD Mn) 19A 20A 21F 22F 23F
Revenue 1,716 1,185 1,304 1,246 1,254 Net Profit 129 39 77 59 73
Cost of Revenue (1,389) (986) (1,117) (1,084) (1,065) D&A 44 39 54 50 44
Gross Profit 327 199 187 161 189 Changes in Working Capital (84) 94 (13) 7 1
Operating Expense (146) (95) (92) (91) (92) Operating CF 89 173 118 115 118
G&A Expense (30) (20) (22) (21) (21)
Selling & Marketing Expense (117) (75) (70) (70) (71) Capital Expenditure (48) (19) (21) (20) (20)
Operating Profit 181 104 95 70 97 Others (48) (26) - - -
EBITDA 225 143 149 120 141 Investing CF (96) (45) (21) (20) (20)
EBITDA Margin (%) 13 12 11 10 11
Finance Income 6 3 4 6 7 Dividend Paid (214) (65) (20) (38) (29)
Finance Expense (1) (3) (15) (15) (15) Net Borrowing 11 10 (0) (0) (0)
Loss/(gain) on coal and fuel swaps (11) 7 8 7 7 Others - - - - -
Loss/(gain) on forex, net (4) 4 4 4 4 Financing CF (203) (55) (20) (38) (29)
Other Income, net 16 (42) 22 21 21
Pre-tax Profit 186 73 118 93 121 Net - Cash flow (210) 73 78 57 69
Taxes, net (59) (35) (43) (36) (50) Forex Gain/(Loss) 1 (0) (1) (0) (0)
Minority Interest 3 2 2 2 2 Cash at Beginning 368 159 232 309 365
Net Profit 129 39 77 59 73 Cash at Ending 159 232 309 365 434

Balance Sheet Key Ratios

Y/E Dec (USD Mn) 19A 20A 21F 22F 23F Y/E Dec 19A 20A 21F 22F 23F
Cash 159 231 309 365 434 Gross Profit Margin (%) 19.0 16.8 14.3 12.9 15.1
Receivables 150 84 124 99 101 Operating Margin (%) 10.5 8.8 7.3 5.6 7.7
Inventory 103 60 78 74 71 Pretax Margin (%) 10.8 6.1 9.0 7.5 9.7
Others 57 44 49 46 47 Net Profit Margin (%) 7.5 3.3 5.9 4.7 5.8
Total Current Asset 469 420 560 585 652 Revenue Growth (%) (14.5) (30.9) 10.0 (4.5) 0.7
Net Fixed Asset 223 196 185 167 145 EBITDA Growth (%) (53.4) (36.3) 4.2 (19.7) 17.9
Other Assets 517 543 534 504 479 Debt to Equity (x) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Total Asset 1,209 1,159 1,279 1,256 1,276
Payables 78 62 108 86 85 Major Assumptions
ST. Debt and CMLTD 15 30 30 30 30 Y/E Dec 19A 20A 21F 22F 23F
Other Current Liabilities 140 115 126 121 121
Current Liability 233 207 264 237 237 Production Volume (million ton) 23.4 18.6 19.3 19.6 19.7
LT. Debt - 36 36 36 36 Sales Volume (million ton) 25.3 21.2 21.2 21.5 21.7
Other LT. Liabilities 91 69 75 72 73 ASP (USD/ton) 64.6 53.5 59.5 55.3 55.3
Total Liability 325 312 376 345 346 Coal Price (USD/ton) 67.7 80.5 70.0 65.0 65.0
Minority Interest (5) (8) (8) (8) (8)
Total Equity 890 854 910 919 938

Peers Comparison

Last Market EPS

YTD Chg. ROE (%) PBV (x) PE (x)
Ticker Price Cap Growth (%)

(IDR/ Share) (IDR Tn) (%) 21F 22F 21F 22F 21F 22F 21F 22F
ITMG 12,100 13.7 (12.1) 12.1 13.7 1.0 1.0 12.3 16.1 (32.2) (23.5)
ADRO 1,200 38.4 (16.4) 5.3 8.8 0.7 0.7 8.3 8.3 - -
PTBA 2,760 31.8 (1.8) 13.6 17.6 1.7 1.5 10.1 6.9 45.2 45.8
Average 2.7 3.7 0.3 0.3 2.8 2.6 3.4 3.9
Source: SSI Research, Bloomberg (valuation at last price)

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 Indo Tambangraya Megah
Bloomberg: ITMG.IJ | Reuters: ITMG.JK
Coal Mining Sector
4 March 2021 JCI Index: 6,376

Research Team
Head of Equity Research, Strategy, Banking,
Suria Dharma suria.dharma@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8148
Consumer Staples
Ahmad Mikail Zaini Economist ahmad.mikail@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8396
William Mamudi, CFTe, CMT Technical Analyst william.mamudi@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8382
Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor m.alfatih@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8129
Cement , Cigarette,Paper, Plantation,Telco
Yosua Zisokhi yosua.zisokhi@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8387
Infra, Chemical
Dessy Lapagu Aviation, Coal, Metal, Retail dessy.lapagu@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8392
Automotive,Construction, Mining Cont.,
Selvi Ocktaviani selvi.ocktaviani@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8393
Precast,Telco, Toll Roads
Nashrullah Putra Media, Poultry nashrullah.putra@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8739
Olivia Laura Anggita Healthcare, Property olivia.laura@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8393
Ahmad Fadillah Oil & Gas ahmad.fadillah@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8144
Calista Muskitta Research Associate calista.muskitta@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8331

Equity Institutional Team

Benny Bambang Soebagjo Head of Institutional Equity Sales benny.soebagjo@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8312
Ronny Ardianto Institutional Equity Sales ronny.ardianto@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8399
Fachruly Fiater Institutional Equity Sales fachruly.fiater@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8325
Henry Sutanto Institutional Equity Sales hensry.sutanto@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8329
Sylviawati Customer Service sylviawati@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8193

Private Wealth Management

Evelyn Satyono Head of PWM Equity Sales evelyn.satyono@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8380
Clarice Wijana PWM Equity Sales clarice.wijana@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8395
Gitta Wahyu Retnani PWM Equity Sales gitta.wahyu@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8365
Wahyudi Budiyono Dealer wahyudi.budiyono@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8152

Equity Retail Team

Kelvin Long Head of Retail Equity Sales kelvin.long@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8150
Lucia Irawati Retail Equity Sales lucia.irawati@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8173
Salt World Widjaja Retail Equity Sales salt@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8163

Fixed Income Sales Team

R. Virine Tresna Sundari Head of Fixed Income virine.sundari@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8170
Rudianto Nugroho Fixed Income Sales rudianto.nugroho@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8306
Sany Rizal Keliobas Fixed Income Sales sany.rizal@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8337
Rahmawati Fixed Income Sales rahmawati@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8385

Online Trading Sales Team

Joseph Soegandhi Head of OLT joseph.soegandhi@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8872
Nugroho Nuswantoro Head of Marketing Online Trading nugroho.nuswantoro@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8372
Wahyu Widodo Marketing wahyu.widodo@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8371

DISCLAIMER: Analyst Certification: The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and
no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The
analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any
recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no
circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all
investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot
be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.

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