Ecohydrology & Hydrobiology 22 (2022) 155–167

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Ecohydrology & Hydrobiology

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ecohyd

Modeling long term response of environmental flow

attributes to future climate change in a North African
watershed (Bouregreg watershed, Morocco)
Youssef Brouziyne 1,∗, Salwa Belaqziz 2,3, Lahcen Benaabidate 4,
Aziz Aboubdillah 5, Ali El Bilali 6, Ahmed Elbeltagi 7,8, Ourania Tzoraki 9,
Abdelghani Chehbouni 1,10
1
Mohammed VI Polytechnic University (UM6P), International Water Research Institute, Benguerir, Morocco
2
Laboratory of Computer Systems and Vision, Computer Science Department, Ibn Zohr University, Agadir Morocco
3
Mohammed VI Polytechnic University (UM6P), Center for Remote Sensing Applications, Benguerir, Morocco
4
Laboratory of Functional Ecology and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Sciences and Techniques, University of Sidi Mohamed Ben
Abdellah, Fez, Morocco
5
Ecole Nationale d’Agriculture de Meknès, Meknes, Morocco
6
Hassan II University of Casablanca, Faculty of Sciences and Techniques of Mohammedia, Morocco
7
Agricultural Engineering Department, Faculty of Agriculture, Mansoura University, Egypt
8
College of Environmental and Resources Science, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
9
Department of Marine Sciences, School of Environment, University of the Aegean, Greece
10
Institut de recherche pour le développement (IRD), unité mixte de recherche (UMR) Centre d’études spatiales de la biosphère (Cesbio),
Toulouse, France

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Environmental flows are unanimously considered to be one of the most comprehensive
Received 30 April 2021 indicators of the rivers health and their capacities to provide ecosystem goods and services.
Revised 30 July 2021
In this study, the objective was to predict the response of environmental flow components
Accepted 10 August 2021
in a typical North African rivers network to future climate change. The study watershed is
Available online 24 August 2021
Bouregreg watershed (BW) in Morocco. To achieve this objective, a hybrid approach was
Key words: build based on the semi-distributed model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and
Climate change the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration program (IHA). Data of two emissions scenarios
environmental flow (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from a downscaled Global Circulation Model were used to force the
Bouregreg watershed hybrid SWAT-IHA to calculate modifications of BW’s environmental flow components in
SWAT 2085-2100 period. Results showed that BW will experience climatic changes under both
IHA scenarios. Most of the environmental flow attributes will be modified within the study
period: loss of natural flow variability due to shift in exceedance probability of low flows
(up to 40%), decrease of monthly low flows, forward shift in high flow timing (up to 50%),
and alteration of both the duration and the rise rates of floods. BW’s streams responded
unequally to the simulated changes in terms of the altered attributes as well as the degree
of the alteration. This study confirmed the ability of the developed modeling approach to
monitor environmental flow parameters for the first time in Morocco, and contributed in
highlighting the necessity of proactive long term strategies to protect riverine ecosystems
in North Africa watersheds.
© 2021 European Regional Centre for Ecohydrology of the Polish Academy of Sciences.
Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

∗
Correspondence.
E-mail address: Youssef.brouziyne@gmail.com (Y. Brouziyne).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecohyd.2021.08.005
1642-3593/© 2021 European Regional Centre for Ecohydrology of the Polish Academy of Sciences. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Y. Brouziyne, S. Belaqziz, L. Benaabidate et al.
1. Introduction
Ecosystems and water depend, unarguably, on each
other for the ecological integrity and sustainability
(Gibson et al. 2005, Richter et al. 1996). Both freshwater
ecosystems, as well as coastal and marine areas, require
adequate quantities, frequency and quality of freshwater to
maintain their functioning and production of environmen-
tal goods and services. In the other hand, much terrestrial
and freshwater systems are essential for water supply (ex:
clouds, aquifer recharge areas, springs) (Poff et al. 2007).
Rivers are generally considered as a key element in this
equilibrium since they govern many essential ecological
balances in the riverine ecosystems (Dyer et al. 2014). Fur-
thermore, and in addition to their central role in maintain-
ing biodiversity, riverine ecosystems provide a set of ser-
vices and goods to human societies; some of which, such
as the supply of drinking water, represent a vital need for
humans (Poff & Zimmerman 2010).
Spatiotemporal changes of river’s flow regimes are gen-
erally in response to different factors associated to: climate
variability and/or change, watershed controls (land cover,
geology, topography), and human intervention (water col-
lection infrastructure, water diversion)(Poff et al. 2010,
Richter et al. 1998). Doll and Zhang (2010) proved that cli-
mate change will have more significant impacts on river’s
flow regimes than water regulation effects, especially in ar-
eas where intensity of climate change is expected to be
high.
Being located in one of global climate change hotspots,
Northern Africa is one of the most water-stressed regions
worldwide (Bzioui 2005). Climate change has already been
noticed in this region, and most projections are show-
ing an increasing alteration intensity of the local hydro-
logic components in the future; which might lead to dis-
charge reduction by more than 20% in some scenarios
(Waha et al. 2017).Under such critical situation, decision
makers are challenged to cope with the growing demand
for water and the preservation of freshwater ecosystems
(Richter et al. 2011).
Birsbane Declaration (2007) defined the environmental
flows as "the quantity, timing and quality of water flows re-
quired to sustain freshwater and estuarine ecosystems and
the human livelihoods and well-being that depend on these
ecosystems". The environmental flows are generally con-
sidered in policies and plans related to water planning
and allocation as a key component for biodiversity pro-
tection and human’ water-based activities (Poff & Zimmer-
man 2010, Quesada-Alvarado et al. 2021). Due to the im-
portance of this component, forecasting its response to fu-
ture climate patterns, with as much details about its spa-
tial sensitivity as possible, is crucial to build sustainable
water use and preservation strategies.
In this context, the primary purpose of this study is
to assess the potential impact of climate change on envi-
ronmental flows during the last fifteen years of this cen-
tury in a strategic watershed located in North Africa (Mo-
rocco): Bouregreg watershed (BW). By combining a GIS-
based semi-distributed model, meteorological data from
two emission scenarios of Coordinated Regional Climate
Downscaling Experiment model, and a hydrologic alter-
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Ecohydrology & Hydrobiology 22 (2022) 155–167
ation software. We aimed specifically to: (1) understand
climate and water balance within the end of the century
in the study watershed,(2) assess the alteration of environ-
mental flows to projected climate, and (3) identify the spa-
tial variability of the environmental flows due to climate
change across the rivers network. Outcomes of this study
will help to prioritize the most vulnerable areas for poten-
tial strategies addressing future climate-induced alteration
to hydrology under North Africa context.
2. Materials & methods
2.1. Study area
The Bouregreg watershed (BW) is located in the North-
western part of Morocco, and is sharing most ecologi-
cal features with the major watersheds in Northern Africa
(Fig. 1). With a total drainage area of 9656km2 , BW is play-
ing key ecological and socio-economic roles in the coun-
try by securing ecological integrity of the area, providing
drinking water for major cities and urban centres within
and around its territory, and hosting different activities
(farming, pastoralism, forestry) (ABHBC 2011). Altitudes in
BW are diverse and are following a gradient ranging from
1726m in the mountainous eastern part to the sea level
in the extreme Western part (Fig. 1) (Bounouira 2007).
Forests, pasture and range lands, and agricultural lands are
the three major land use classes in BW with respectively
24%, 30%, and 28% cover of the total watershed surface. The
rest of the study watershed area is covered by bare lands
(14%), urban centre (3%) and water bodies (1%).
The study watershed is considered as a Mediterranean
climate watershed with the influence of the ocean (in the
extreme west) and the one of Atlas Mountains (in the
east)(Khomsi et al. 2013). Under the effect of ocean cur-
rents that are acting as conveyer belts of (mainly) cold
water, the western plateau of BW records average annual
rainfall of 400 mm to 500 mm and low temperature am-
plitudes (average annual mean temperature of 18°C). The
highland part in the extreme east, and due to the eleva-
tion effect, is usually recording an average annual rain-
fall exceeding 600 mm with occasional snowfall (average
annual mean temperature of 15°C) (Khomsi et al. 2013,
ABHBC 2018).
Surface water component is dominating the water bud-
get in the study watershed (by 90%); the water potential
of BW is estimated at 720 Mm3 (Belmatrik 2010). Rivers
network is formed by four non-perennial streams: Kori-
fla and Machraa streams, with average daily streamflow
of 1.2m3 /s and 0.76m3 /s measured at Ain Loudah and
S.M. Chrif streamgauges respectively; and the two major
ones, Bouregreg and Grou, with average daily streamflow
of 5.24m3 /s and 5.63m3 /s recorded at Aguibat Ziar and Ras
Fathia streamgauges respectively (ABHBC 2011). The both
large rivers are taking origin from the Atlas mountains in
the east (Fig. 1). Maximum streamflow is usually recorded
in winter season, with the lowest streamflow occurring in
summer season (Fig. 2).
From ecological perspective, the very few investigations
of freshwater ecosystems in the BW revealed high diversity
Y. Brouziyne, S. Belaqziz, L. Benaabidate et al. Ecohydrology & Hydrobiology 22 (2022) 155–167

Fig. 1. Location, topography, stream network of BW and the used streamgauges

Fig. 2. Average daily streamflow per month at the four streamgauges (calculated over the period 1985 to 2005)

in macro-invertebrate, fish and non-swimming waterbirds
species in this watershed (Arifi et al. 2019, El Asri 2006).
2.2. Models
2.2.1. Hydrologic Model
In order to simulate the hydrological processes in the
study watershed, we used the semi-distributed model: Soil
and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) (Arnold et al. 1998).
Considering the extensive and the successful use on
different geo-physical and climatic conditions (in-
cluding in Northern Africa)(Brouziyne et al. 2017,
Abouabdillah et al. 2014) and over various hydrological and
climate change’ related aspects (climate change-induced
hydrologic alteration of hydrology)(Mittal et al. 2014,
Arnold et al. 2012, Teklay et al. 2021), SWAT model has
been selected to simulate the hydrology of the BW rivers
network.
SWAT model is a conceptual basin scale model de-
veloped to investigate climate scenarios and large vari-
ety of strategies related to land use, crops management,
and water infrastructure on hydrology, water quality, and
crops production (Li et al. 2017, Neitsch et al. 2002,
Arnold et al. 1993). Spatially, and by relying on GIS plat-
form, SWAT (Called ArcSWAT by some specialists) is di-
viding the basin into units called Hydrologic Response

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Y. Brouziyne, S. Belaqziz, L. Benaabidate et al.
Units (HRUs); each HRU represents a unique combination
of soil, slope, and land use classes. The different physi-
cal processes that are simulated by SWAT are reproduced
within each HRU allowing wide possibilities to understand
the spatial distribution of different processes occurring
within the watershed at each time step of the simulation
(Arnold et al. 1993).
To calibrate the hydrologic component of SWAT over
BW, we used SUFI-2 algorithm (Abbaspour et al. 2004)
of SWAT Calibration and Uncertainty Procedure(SWAT-CUP)
program (Abbaspour et al. 2007). Three statistical indica-
tors, Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE), the determination co-
efficient (R2 ), and Percent Bias (PBIAS) were adopted to
measure the goodness-of-fit of simulated streamflow com-
pared to the recorded one at the four streamgauges while
adjusting the most sensitive parameters.
2.2.2. Hydrologic alteration calculator
Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) program was
developed by Richter et al.(1996) of The Nature Conser-
vancy. This software is a suite of metrics commonly used
to assess the degree of hydrologic alteration caused by var-
ious forms of river regulation, in environmental flow stud-
ies. In this study, IHA was used to compute the potential
alteration of environmental flow components (EFCs) under
projected climate change impacts. In IHA, the EFCs param-
eters were developed based on their ecological relevance.
They are calculated based on a complex algorithm that
parses the relevance of a set of flow conditions (or flow
events) to ecological integrity of riverine ecosystems.
The flow events that were monitored in our study at
each stream gauge during the climate change impact inves-
tigations are: monthly low flows, high flow pulses, small
floods, and large floods. They are calculated based on fif-
teen year’s baseline daily streamflow data (Pre-impact)
and the daily streamflow data of the last fifteen years of
this century (Post-impact). More details about the calcu-
lation method are presented in Richter et al.(1996). In this
study, the EFCs parameters were analyzed while comparing
the pre-impact to the post-impact streamflow data at the
four streamgauges of BW. Alteration of EFCs was estimated
through the calculation of the change in mean values from
the pre-impact to the post-impact period as a Deviation
factor (DF)(Richter et al. 1996):
|(Post − impact value) − (Pre − impact value)|
DF = × 100%
(P re − impact value)
2.3. Datasets
SWAT model requires significant amount of input data
to reproduce the different processes within the study wa-
tershed. To build the SWAT hydrologic module for BW we
used the following data:
2.3.1. Spatial dataset
Spatial input dataset were obtained from open source
websites: (1) A Digital Elevation Model (DEM) with 30m
spatial resolution provided from the Shuttle Radar Topog-
raphy Mission (SRTM) database of NASA’s Space Endeav-
our flight. It was used to delineate BW’s sub basins and to
build the hydrographic network based on the discretization
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Ecohydrology & Hydrobiology 22 (2022) 155–167
tool of ArcGIS software. Then, four monitoring points were
placed in the real locations of the four BW streamgauges
(Aguibat Ziar, Ras Fathia, Ain Loudah, and S.M.Chrif); (2) A
soil map of 1km resolution with its related attributes de-
tails provided from the Harmonized World Soil Database
(HWSD V1.21)(FAO 2013). Further soil conductivity’ related
parameters were computed using Soil Water Characteris-
tics program (Saxton & Rawls 2006) and (3) Three high
quality Landsat 8 satellite images, downloaded from the
Earth Explorer database of US Geological Survey to cre-
ate specific land cover map for BW with 30m resolu-
tion based on supervised classification algorithms. Land-
sat 8 is using the recently developed sensors: Operational
Imager (OLI) and Thermal InfraRed Sensor (TRIS) for en-
hanced scenes acquirement. Atmospheric and geometric
corrections of BW’s satellite images were carried out us-
ing image-processing software ERDAS IMAGINE (v. 2015).
In order to develop specific spectral signatures of the major
land cover classes in BW, field visits were performed dur-
ing full vegetation period to collect reference points coor-
dinates of parcels hosting the different land cover classes;
signatures assignment in the created land cover map was
performed then with certainty (Kappa coefficient: 86%).
2.3.2. Hydro-meteorological dataset
Local climate and water management authority pro-
vided daily temperatures (max & min) and precipitation
series from January 1985 to December 2005 obtained from
12 weather stations across BW.
Daily streamflow datasets, from January 1990 to De-
cember 2005, at the four streamgauges of BW provided
by the local climate and water management authority and
were used to calibrate and validate SWAT hydrologic mod-
ule.
2.3.3. Projection dataset
As per future climate scenarios, daily climate vari-
ables (precipitation and max & min temperature) of two
emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from the Global
Climate Model CNRM-CM5 were used to investigate future
climate and hydrology. The CNRM-CM5 model is a member
of the 5th version of the Coupled Model Intercomparison
Project (CMIP5) (Taylor et al. 2012) and was widely used in
climate change studies in north Africa due to its low uncer-
tainty over this region (Balaghi 2017, Hadour et al. 2020) .
The considered future climate variables datasets cover the
period from January 2080 to December 2100.
To correct for bias and perform spatial downscaling of
the CNRM-CM5 simulations, 25km resolution data from
Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) were used.
The Bias-Corrected Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD) method
(Wood et al. 2004) was selected for this purpose. This
method is based on both statistical bias correction as well
as spatial disaggregation to transform bias-corrected future
model simulations from coarse-scale to fine-scale.
To assess the performance of the climate downscaling
approach, averaged downscaled historical precipitation and
temperature data from the climate model were compared
to averaged observed precipitation and temperature data,
respectively, across the study watershed; Fig. 3 summa-
rizes the results. Compared to observations, overall, the
Y. Brouziyne, S. Belaqziz, L. Benaabidate et al. Ecohydrology & Hydrobiology 22 (2022) 155–167

Fig. 3. Comparison of observed and downscaled monthly cumulative rainfall and mean temperature averaged for all BW’s stations during the historical
period of 1985-2005, the box plots show the 10, 25, 50, 75, and 90 percentiles of mean temperature and rainfall amounts.

Fig. 4. Flowchart of the Hybrid SWAT-IHA approach

adopted downscaling approach succeeded in capturing the
general trend of monthly temperature as well as the sea-
sonal variability of precipitation in BW including during
both rainy and dry periods (winter and summer seasons,
respectively) (Fig. 3).
2.4. Approach
The adopted hybrid SWAT-IHA approach shown in
Fig. 4 can be stated as the following steps:
a. The SWAT model was set up by using input geospa-
tial and metrological dataset over the period 1985 to
2005, while dedicating the first five years to warm-up
the model. We then obtain simulated daily streamflow
data at the four streamgauges over the period 1990 to
2005;
b. The SWAT-CUP program was run to obtain the best
agreement between simulated and observed stream-
flow data at the four streamgauges. The process is
achieved as soon as the best satisfactory values of the
adopted goodness-of-fit indicators (NSE, PBIAS, and R2)
are reached; more details on the calibration and valida-
tion efforts of streamflow module of SWAT on BW are
presented in Brouziyne et al.(2020);

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Y. Brouziyne, S. Belaqziz, L. Benaabidate et al.
Fig. 5. Simulated and recorded streamflow during calibration and validation (aggregated on monthly time steps) at the stations (a)Aguibat Ziar, (b) Ras
Fathia, (c) S.M. Chrif, and (d) Ain Loudah.
c. The calibrated SWAT model was run using the projected
climatic data of the selected two emissions scenarios
(RCP4.5 & RCP8.5) over the period 2080 to 2100, while
dedicating the first five years to warm-up the model.
We then obtain simulated future daily streamflow at
the four streamgauges over the period 2085 to 2100,
hereinafter referred to as 2090s;
d. The IHA program was used for the calculation of EFCs
based on the daily observed and simulated future
streamflow data. In this study, the pre-impact period
(or Baseline) is corresponding to the 1990-2005 period;
while the post-impact period is referring to 2085-2100
period (2090s);
e. The EFCs analysis gave the final results of the hybrid
SWAT-IHA approach.
3. Results & discussion
3.1. Hydrologic model calibration
Daily streamflow data simulated at the four stream-
gauges (from 1990 to 2005) were confronted to the
recorded ones while observing the adopted goodness-of-fit
parameters (R2 , NSE, and PBIAS). To perform this task, the
calibration and uncertainty program SWAT CUP was used.
Four SWAT hydrologic parameters were revealed influenc-
ing the hydrologic systems in the four streams, namely:
CN2 (initial SCS runoff curve number for moisture con-
dition II), SOL_AWC (available water capacity of the soil
layer), ESCO (soil evaporation compensation factor), and
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Ecohydrology & Hydrobiology 22 (2022) 155–167
GWQMN (threshold depth of water return in shallow flow
to occur). All the four parameters were adjusted accord-
ingly at the four streamgauges to reach the best reproduc-
tion of recorded streamflows; more details about the sen-
sitivity analysis was described in Brouziyne et al.(2020).
Considering that R2 and NSE coefficient start to indicate
acceptable agreement between recorded and simulated
streamflow at the values 0.5 and 0.36 respectively, wherein
the PBIAS value needs to be ±25% (Moriasi et al. 2007,
Van Liew et al. 2003), the daily streamflow calibration
and validation results indicated a satisfactory model per-
formance for hydrological processes over all BW streams
(Fig. 5).
Hydrographs of simulated and recorded streamflows at
the four gauging stations confirmed the ability of SWAT
model to successfully mimic the recorded flow in overall
(Fig. 5). Most of peaks and low flows were in reasonable
agreement with the recorded data along the simulation pe-
riods at all the four streamflow gauging stations.
Due to the importance of seasonal variability of flows
in the present study, SWAT model performances in rep-
resenting (specifically) this variability in the BW were in-
vestigated. Streamflow simulation during low flow (sum-
mer season) and high flow (winter season) periods, sepa-
rately, at the four streamgauges were confronted to their
respective recorded data during the same periods. Two
agreement metrics were selected for this investigation: the
PBIAS and NSE. The table 1 represents the results of this
investigation.
Y. Brouziyne, S. Belaqziz, L. Benaabidate et al. Ecohydrology & Hydrobiology 22 (2022) 155–167

Table 1
Model performance for the high and low flow season at the four streamgauges

Calibration Validation

High flow Low flow High flow Low flow

Aguibat NSE 0.631 0.548 0.473 0.425

Ziar PBIAS 23 16 -18 22
Ras NSE 0.745 0.417 0.534 0.497
Fathia PBIAS 19 -15 16 23
S.M. NSE 0.545 0.505 0.683 0.432
Chrif PBIAS -19 -21 -20 15
Ain NSE 0.681 0.391 0.696 0.407
Loudah PBIAS -18 -23 -11 22

Fig. 6. Comparison of monthly mean temperature distribution in 2090s to baseline

Van Liew et al. (2003) reported that with an absolute
value of PBIAS less than 25% and (or) NSE greater than
0.36, the performance of the SWAT model can be con-
sidered satisfactory, especially under arid/semi-arid con-
texts and in focused investigation on specific extreme flow
regimes. Based on NSE and PBIAS values at (almost) all
BW’s streamgauges (table 1), the SWAT model performance
showed satisfactory compromise under both extreme flow
regimes in the study watershed despite the intermittent
feature of the streamflow network. This investigation also
helped in examining the risks of inability of the selected
goodness-of-fit parameters to measure model performance
under extreme flow regimes when applied during calibra-
tion over continuous long term hydrological conditions.
Therefore, the simulations of BW’s hydrologic systems by
the calibrated SWAT model can be considered with con-
fidence to investigate future hydrologic alteration in the
study watershed.
3.2. Projected climate
Based on future temperature analysis, and compared to
baseline period’ temperatures, BW will experience clear in-
crease of mean temperature by the end of the century by
+1.44°C and +2.7°C under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively.
Fig. 6 summarizes the monthly distribution of mean tem-
perature during 2090s (1985 to 2100) compared to base-
line.
The expected change in monthly temperature over BW
should follow the same increasing trend across all months
and it is expected to be higher under RCP8.5 than un-
der RCP4.5. Under both emission scenarios, the highest in-
crease is projected during BW’s dry season (from June to
September).
Concerning precipitation (Fig. 7), projections show
that equivalent annual precipitation to the baseline’s one
(460mm) is expected under the RCP4.5 (455mm) and
lesser under the RCP8.5 (307mm). However, the estimated
standard deviations of future annual precipitation are 158
mm and 171 mm under the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5
respectively, while the baseline’s standard deviation is
102mm. This suggests a higher fluctuation of precipita-
tion on year-to-year basis compared to the baseline situ-
ation. The other important change as per 2090 s precipi-
tation will concern the monthly distribution, as shown in
the figure 7.
The main change in the pattern of BW’s monthly pre-
cipitation during 2090s is the reduction of monthly aver-
ages of November to January under both RCPs; this pe-
riod covers the rainy season in baseline. Precipitation in
March and April are expected to exceed the baseline aver-
ages under both scenarios. Similar concentration of precip-
itation in spring season (in comparison to baseline) have
been projected in other studies over the Mediterranean re-
gion and confirmed that rainfall events are likely to be
rarer but with larger daily amounts during spring sea-
son (Goubanova & Li 2007). The most consistent explana-
tion for this shift was provided by Meehl et al.(2005) as
the modification of advective effects associated with
changes in atmospheric circulation over some part of the
Mediterranean region. As per consequence on the hydro-
logic process, such shifts in the monthly distribution of

161
Y. Brouziyne, S. Belaqziz, L. Benaabidate et al.
Fig. 7. Comparison of monthly precipitation averages distribution in 2090s to baseline
Fig. 8. Comparison of water balance components in baseline and 2090s
precipitation might have significant impacts on the differ-
ent hydrologic regimes in the study watershed as proved
in similar contexts by De Girolamo et al.(2015) and
Porthoghese et al.(2013).
3.3. Future water balance
Once SWAT model is calibrated over baseline situa-
tion (more details on SWAT model performance are pre-
sented in Brouziyne et al.(2020)), it was run to simu-
late the water balance components in BW under baseline
and 2090s (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) situations using their re-
spective climate variables. The main water balance com-
ponents that are simulated by SWAT are: Potential Evapo-
transpiration (PET), actual Evapotranspiration (ET), Lateral
flow (LATQ), surface runoff (SURFQ), and total water yield
(TWYD) which represents the total amount of water enter-
ing main channel covering surface runoff, lateral flow, and
groundwater less transmission losses to the aquifer bed.
Fig. 8 shows the comparison between the different water
balance components during each simulation scenario.
Compared to baseline, TWYD reduction during 2090s
is almost the major development; the reduction is ex-
pected to be by -7% under RCP4.5 and by -45% under
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Ecohydrology & Hydrobiology 22 (2022) 155–167
RCP8.5.The dramatic reduction in BW’s TWYD, especially
under RCP8.5, could be directly linked to the predicted de-
crease of annual precipitation (-33%). The reduction in pre-
cipitation might be the key factor also behind the pre-
dicted decrease in ET during 2090s compared to base-
line. Nevertheless, actual evapotranspiration will keep be-
ing the predominant component in the water balance at
the end of the century: respectively 60% and 72% under
RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. PET increase in the future, by +6%
(RCP4.5) and +17% (RCP8.5), could be linked to the pre-
dicted increase of temperature in the study watershed.
The identified changes are consistent with the results ob-
tained by other studies over similar watersheds in North-
ern Africa such as in Merguellil watershed in Tunisia
(Abouabdillah et al. 2010) and in R’dom watershed in Mo-
rocco watershed (Brouziyne et al. 2018).
3.4. EFCs analysis
3.4.1. Flow Duration Curves
Being one of the widely used techniques to character-
ize hydrological regime of watersheds, the flow duration
curve (FDC) is computed by IHA program by analysing
the pre-impact’ streamflow time series and then the
Y. Brouziyne, S. Belaqziz, L. Benaabidate et al.
Fig. 9. Flow duration curves at the four streamgauges during 2090s (red line) compared to baseline (green line)
post-impact ones through a probabilistic approach; fur-
ther description of the computing method is available at
Richter et al.(1996). Fig. 9 represents annual FDCs analy-
sis for the two 2090 s scenarios compared to the reference
FDC of baseline, at the four streamgauges.
Based on FDC analysis, BW’s flows regimes are ex-
pected to experience alterations during 2090s. A par-
tial change of exceedance probability shape of low flows
was predicted under RCP4.5 in almost all streamgauges
(with less incidence in Machraa and Korifla streams);
while the change will be general and more severe un-
der the RCP8.5 (with more impact in the Bouregreg and
Grou streams, BW’s largest streams). Since the probabil-
ity of lower flow at pre-impact period is supposed to in-
crease under RCP4.5, the observed shift of the shape of
2090 s low flow (RCP4.5) to right indicates a potential in-
crease in low flow regimes variability; however the natu-
163
Ecohydrology & Hydrobiology 22 (2022) 155–167
ral variability should be preserved in moderate and high
flows.
Under RCP8.5, flow variability pattern was predicted to
be altered under 2090 s climate at all streamgauges. The
shift, to left, of flow probability pattern across all flow
rates means that the same flow rate will occur less fre-
quently than in baseline. This situation will be leading to
natural variability loss; which is expected to occur severely
at all the four streamgauges levels.
This flow modification could be explained by the de-
crease of flow assurance due to the previously revealed
change in future climate. Across the four streamgauges and
the two RCPs, the most severe modification of FDC was
predicted at the streamgauges of the two largest streams,
with changes of extreme exceedance probability of +38%
in Bouregreg stream (RCP4.5) and +40% in Grou stream
(RCP4.5).
Y. Brouziyne, S. Belaqziz, L. Benaabidate et al.
Fig. 10. The distribution of deviation factor percentage of monthly low flow mean
Similar modifications of FDCs were simulated in inves-
tigations of future climate change impact on flow regime
in watersheds located in southern Italy (Pumo et al. 2016).
The studied watersheds are similar to BW in terms of ma-
jor physical and hydro-climatic characteristics; and will ex-
perience changes of climate patterns equivalently to BW.
The authors reported that the FCDs will be downshifted
under the future climate change scenarios but with un-
even rates across the sub-watersheds (Pumo et al. 2016).
The main interpretation is the variability in terms of lo-
cal micro-climate, topography, as well as the dimensions of
the tributaries; which can be applicable on BW situation
also to understand the variable response of FDCs within
the streamflow network.
3.4.2. Monthly low flows
Due to its importance to the ecosystems, the mon-
itoring of low flow parameter (especially at monthly
wise) provides useful indication about the river health
(Institute of Hydrology 1980). Indeed, some of the key
roles of monthly low flows include: providing adequate
habitat for aquatic organisms, maintaining suitable tem-
peratures and dissolved oxygen, and maintaining water
table levels in floodplain, and soil moisture for plants
(Arnell 2003, Gibson et al. 2005). Fig. 10 summarize devi-
ation factor percentages of monthly low flow mean under
RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.
In overall, there will be a reduction of mean low flows
in 2090s compared to baseline at the four streamgauges.
Most of BW’s streams will experience a decrease in low
flow means, especially under the RCP8.5, except in July and
August (also in June under RCP4.5) where an increase has
been predicted at Ain Loudah and S.M.Chrif gauges.
In the Merguellil watershed, a typical Mediterranean
watershed extending over an area of 1200 km2 in Tunisia,
Abouabdillah et al.(2010) have found equivalent results af-
ter combining SWAT model and IHA program to under-
stand the response of flow regime to climate change in
this watershed. Under most of climate change scenarios
where temperatures will increase and rainfall to decrease,
monthly flows in Merguellil are expected to decrease ex-
pect in july and august (under some scenarios) where pos-
itive deviations have been computed.
The computed high positive deviations for July and Au-
gust can be explained by the very low values of base-
line flows during these months at Loudah and S.M.Chrif
gauges which amplified the deviation even if the change
164
Ecohydrology & Hydrobiology 22 (2022) 155–167
is small. As per the ywo largest streams (Bouregreg and
Grou), gauged by Aguibat Ziar and Ras Fathia, no flows are
generally recorded during July and August and no change
was predicted during 2090s. The most significant negative
deviations have been estimated again at Agibat Ziar and
Ras Fathia streamgauges.
3.4.3. High flows
IHA program computes high flow (pulses) events as any
rise of water level (after a rainstorm) that does not exceed
the river channel banks (Richter et al. 1996). Fig. 11 repre-
sents the deviations in post-impact’s high flow characteris-
tics against the ones in baseline situation.
Across both RCPs, all high flow characteristics will be
altered in 2090s but the most significant deviation is rela-
tive to the timing. The positive deviation in timing of high
flows means that their occurrence is expected to be later
across the year’s Julian days than in baseline. In overall,
and except the duration and peak in some streamgauges
(RCP4.5), a general reduction of fall and rise rate, and fre-
quency was predicted under both emissions scenarios.
The predicted alteration to high flows in BW are sup-
posed to influence some balances of the riverine ecosys-
tems as this environmental flow component helps in shap-
ing the physical pattern of the river channel, maintaining
salinity levels in estuaries, and restore normal water qual-
ity level after low flow period (Martin et al. 2019).
3.4.4. Floods
Both small and large flood are important for the river-
ine and terrestrial ecosystems as they contribute in pro-
viding recharge opportunity for the floodplain’s water ta-
ble, depositing nutrients on floodplain, providing migration
and new feeding opportunities for fish (Lynch et al. 2019).
Small floods are defined by IHA as "river rises that over-
top the main channel but does include more extreme floods"
(Richter et al. 1996). As presented in Fig. 12, the main pre-
dicted alterations of this component of environmental flow
under RCP4.5 are: the very significant positive deviation of
the duration (more than 300%), and the relative reduction
in almost all the other characteristics (including frequency)
in all BW’s streams. As per RCP8.5, the major changes are
about the increase of the duration (Korifla and Bouregreg
streams), the extending of the timing, and the reduction of
the frequency in all streams.
Concerning the large floods characteristics (Fig. 13), the
main changes during 2090s under RCP4.5 are the very
Y. Brouziyne, S. Belaqziz, L. Benaabidate et al. Ecohydrology & Hydrobiology 22 (2022) 155–167

Fig. 11. Deviation factor percentages of predicted high flows characteristics

Fig. 12. Deviation factor percentages of predicted small floods characteristics

Fig. 13. Deviation factor percentages of predicted large floods characteristics

165
Y. Brouziyne, S. Belaqziz, L. Benaabidate et al.
significant deviation of the duration in Machraa stream
(gauged by S.M.chrif), the increase in fall and rise rates
in Korifla stream (gauged by Ain Loudah), and the in-
crease in the frequency by 100% in both Machraa and Ko-
rifla streams. The two key alterations of large floods under
RCP8.5 are about the increase in Rise rate (Korifla stream)
and the increase in the duration in Machraa stream.
Similar flood modifications were projected by
Sellami et al. (2016) in Chiba and Thau basins in north-
eastern Tunisia and South of France, respectively, by 2071.
The authors proved that the timing, magnitude, and fre-
quencies of (small and large) floods are supposed to be
altered at the both basins under the effects of changing
climate. In the same investigation, the flow regime in the
Chiba basin has been revealed more vulnerable to climate
change-induced alteration than the Thau basin since the
modification of floods parameters will be larger in the
Tunisian basin.
4. Conclusion
The overall objective of this study was to assess fu-
ture climate change-induced modifications of environmen-
tal flow component at BW. Like in most of the major North
African watersheds, BW’s climate is expected to change by
the end of the current century. Temperature wise, +1.44°C
and +2.7°C increase in mean temperature are projected
by the used GCM over BW under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 re-
spectively. Concerning precipitation, the significant change
should be expected under the emission scenario RCP8.5
where a reduction of annual precipitation average is pro-
jected. The simulation of future water balance in BW re-
vealed that total water yield will drop down and the po-
tential evapotranspiration will rise up under both emis-
sion scenarios; actual evapotranspiration will keep being
the major water balance component in the study water-
shed.
Based on the analysis of BW’s flows duration curves
under 2090 s climate, severe natural flow variability loss
was predicted under RCP8.5 in all the four studied streams.
However, the variability alteration is expected to affect
mainly low flow regimes under the RCP4.5. In terms of
monthly low flows, the whole BW stream network will ex-
perience a negative deviation compared to baseline aver-
ages; the highest deviations have been computed for BW’s
major streams (Bouregreg and Grou). Furthermore, forward
shift in high flow timing was simulated at the four stream-
gauges under both emission scenarios. As per floods com-
ponent, duration of small floods will be extended in most
of BW’s streams; however, it is mainly fall and rise rates
(Korifla) and duration (Machraa stream) of large floods will
be altered.
In overall, BW’s environmental flow components will be
affected by the climate change at the end of this century.
This study revealed that the response of BW’s streams will
be different in terms of both the altered component and
the degree of deviation. These findings suggest the neces-
sity to put in place appropriate strategies of environmental
flow preservation taking into consideration the specificity
of each stream.
166
Ecohydrology & Hydrobiology 22 (2022) 155–167
This study confirmed the ability of the proposed ap-
proach, hybrid SWAT-IHA, in revealing the future response
of BW’s stream network toward the 21st century climate,
and might be used to address the climate change-induced
modification of the environmental flows in similar water-
sheds in North Africa.
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors declare that they have no known compet-
ing financial interest of personal relationships that have
appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
Funding
This research has not received any specific grant from
funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-
profit sectors.
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank the anonymous re-
viewers for taking time and effort in reviewing the
manuscript. The authors sincerely appreciate the insight-
ful comments and suggestions provided by the reviewers
which helped in improving the manuscript.
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