დისკრეტული ალბათობა 2021

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ზუსტ და საბუნებისმეტყველო მეცნიერებათა

ფაკულტეტის
კომპიუტერული მეცნიერებების დეპარტამანტი
დისკრეტული ალბათობა
შესავალ ლექციათა კურსი

„მონაცემთა ანალიზი და სტატისტიკა“
პროფ: გია სირბილაძე
- 2021 -
ლექციათა კური – „დისკრეტული ალბათობა“ საბაკალავრო პროგრამა 1

„კომპიუტერული მეცნიერება“ სტუდენტებისთვის
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CFHXTDB
"FDB I. ITV"{DTDB"B TMCGTHBVTYNB .

TKTVTYNFHEK {LJVBKJ<F"F CBDHWT LF FK<F"J<F..................3
§ 1. ITV"{DTDB"B TMCGTHBVTYNB LF TKTVTYNFHEK {LJVBKJ<F"F CBDHWT.....3
§ 2. {LJVBKJ<F& JGTHFWBT<B {LJVBKJ<T<PT.......................................................3
§ 3. FK<F"J<F............................................................................................................ 5
§ 4. UTJVTNHBEKB FK<F"J<F.................................................................................7
§ 5. {LJVBKJ<F"F }FVBC FK<F"J<F.....................................................................8
§ 6. VWBHT FK<F"J<BC {LJVBKJ<BC ITESKT<KJ<BC GHBWBGB.......................8
§ 7. GBHJ<B"B FK<F"J<F^ {LJVBKJ<F"F YFVHFDKBC FK<F"J<F.....................8
§ 8. {LJVBKJ<F"F LFVJERBLT<KJ<F....................................................................9
§ 9. UFVHYFDKT<BC GHBYWBGB^ LTYLHJUHFVF.........................................................10
§ 10.O>J<F^ UFLFYFWDKT<F^ }EA"T<F.....................................................................11
§ 11.FK<F"J<F"F UFVJ"DKF LTYLHJUHFVT<BC VTIDTJ<B"...............................12
§ 12.CHEKB FK<F"J<BCF LF <FBTCBC AJHVEKT<B...............................................14
§ 13. EXCEL.........................................................................................................................................................15
RB"{DT<B "DB"ITVJOVT<BCF"DBC.......................................................................................................16
CFDFH}BIJT<B........................................................................................................ 17
"FDB II. LBCRHTNEKB ITV"{DTDB"B CBLBLTT<B........................25

§ 1. LBCRHTNEKB ITV"{DTDB"B CBLBLBC UFYFOBKT<BC RFYJYB........................25
§ 2. LBCRHTNEKB ITV"{DTDB"B CBLBLBC VF"TVFNBREHB KJLBYB
(CFIEFKJ VYBIDYTKJ<F)^ VJLF......................................................................27
§3*. ITV"{DTDB"B CBLBLBC AEYMWBBC VF"TVFNBREHB KJLBYB.........................28
§ 4. LBCGTHCBF^ CFIEFKJ RDFLHFNEKB UFLF{HF..............................................29
§ 5. SBHB"FLB LBCRHTNEKB UFYFOBKT<FYB...................................................................................31
§ 5.1.<THYEKBC UFYFOBKT<F.................................................................................................................... 31
§ 5.2.<THYEKBC WLF"F CMTVF& <BYJVEHB UFYFOBKT<F.........................................31
§ 5.3./BGTHUTJVTNHBEKB UFYFOBKT<F..................................................................35
§ 5.4.GEFCJYBC UFYFOBKT<F.....................................................................................35
§ 6. EXCEL..........................................................................................................................................................37
RB"{DT<B "DB"ITVJOVT<BCF"DBC........................................................................................................39
CFDFH}BIJT<B.......................................................................................................40
"FDB I I I*. JHUFYPJVBKT<BFYB ITV"{DTDB"B CBLBLTT<B......45

§ 1. JHUFYPJVBKT<BFYB LBCRHTNEKB ITV"{DTDB"B CBLBLTT<B......................45
§ 2. JHUFYPJVBKT<BFYB ITV"{DTDB"B CBLBLBC
HBW{DB"B VF{FCBF"T<KT<B..............................................................................46
§3*.GBHJ<B"B UFYFOBKT<F LF GBHJ<B"B VF"TVFNBREHB KJLBYB...................49
RB"{DT<B "DB"ITVJOVT<BCF"DBC.................................................................................................... .51
CFDFH}BIJT<B......................................................................................................51
2 ლექციათა კური – „დისკრეტული ალბათობა“ საბაკალავრო პროგრამა

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შესავალი: ადამიანის ინტელეტს გააჩნია საოცარი თვისება: არაზუსტი, არასაკმარისი და

საკმაოდ წინააღმდეგობრივი ინფორმაციის არსებობის შემთხვევაშიც კი გააკეთოს საკმაოდ სწორი,
დასაჯერებელი და სანდო დასკვნები მიმდინარე მოვლენის, ცდის თუ ექსპერიმენტის შედეგებთან
მიმართებაში. ყოველივე ამის თეორიული საფუძვლები რა თქმა უნდა მრავალი დარგიდან თუ
მიმართულებიდან მოდის, რომელთა გამაერთიამებელი მონაცემთა ანალიზი და სტატისტიკაა.
ინფორმაციის წყარო მისი ბუნება და რა თქმა უნდა თვითონ მონაცემები განმსაზღვრელია თუ რა
მიდგომა, მეთოდი თუ სქემა უნდა გამოვიყენოთ კვალიფიციური და სანდო შეფასებებისა და
დასკვნების გასაკეთებლად. მათ კი გაცილებით მაღალი ღირებულება უნდა გააჩნდეს
გამოყენებებში, ვიდრე ინტუიციასა და გამოცდდილებას.
თქვენთვის სკოლის მათემატიკის კურსიდან ცნობილია რომ^ სტატისტიკა არის მეცნიერება,
რომელიც შეისწავლის დასაბუთებულ პირველადი დამუშავებისა და შეფასების მეთოდებსა და
ხერხებს პოპულაციის უცნობი პარამეტრებისთვის, როგორიცაა მოლოდინი, საშუალო
კვადრატული გადახრა და ა.შ. ასევე თქვენ გაეცანით ალბათობის ცნების ინტუიციურ წარმოდგენას
და ალბათობათა აღრიცხვის ძირითად მარტივ წესებს.
მიმდინარე კურსში „მონაცემთა ანალიზი და სტატისტიკა“ თქვენ გაეცნობით იგივე
პრობლემატიკას, რაც სკოლის კურში იყო წარმოდგენილი, ოღონდ კვალიფიციურ და შედარებით
ღრმა დონეზე. გავივლით პროგრამას, რომლის ცოდნა აუცილებელია ინფორმატიკის
მიმართულების საბაკალავრო პროგრამების სწავლების სტუდენტებისთვის და რომელიც
რეკომენდირებულია მსოფლიოში აღიარებული კომპიუტერული საზოგადოება ACM-ის
სწავლების მეთოდოლოგიით.
სასწავლო კურსი „დისკრეტული ალბათობა“ წარმოადგენს „მონაცემთა ანალიზი და
სტატისტიკა“ –ს სწავლების შესავალ, აუცილებელ ნაწილს. კურსში მოცემულია დისკრეტული
ალბათობის ძირითადი ობიქტები და მათი სტრუქტურები. ყოველი თავის ბოლოს წარმოდგენილია
სავარჯიშო ამოცანები და ზოგიერთი მათგანის გადაწყვეტა EXCEL- ის სტატისტიკურ ფუნქციათა
გარემოში.
"FDB I. ITV"{DTDB"B TMCGTHBVTYNB .

TKTVTYNFHEK {LJVBKJ<F"F CBDHWT LF FK<F"J<F
§ 1. ITV"{DTDB"B TMCGTHBVTYNB LF TKTVTYNFHEK {LJVBKJ<F"F CBDHWT
crjkbc vf'tvfnbrbc rehcib 'mdty uftwfyb' itv'[dtdb'b tmcgthbvtync& bub cfvb v'fdfhb
vj'[jdyb' ufybcfpqdht,f& 1& tmcgthbvtynbc itltubc obyfcofh fvjwyj,f iteskt,tkbf& 2&
fhct,j,c tmcgthbvtynbc itltu'f cbvhfdkeh-ajhvfkehb fqothbc itcfskt,kj,f& 3& fhct,j,c
ufyvtjht,b'b tmcgthbvtynbc xfnfht,bc itepqelfdb itcfskt,lj,f& ufydb[bkj' itv'[dtdb'b
tmcgthbvtynbc itvltub vfhnbdb vfufkb'b&
vfufkb'b 2.1. d'mdf'^ tmcgthbvtynb ybiyfdc cbvtnhbekb vjytnbc fult,fc& dfrdbhlt,b'^ @hf
vjlbc# lfdfhlybk vjytnfpt& fv tmcgthbvtynbc itltut,bf* @uth,bc vjcdkf# (u) lf @cfafcehbc
vjcdkf# (c)& w[flbf^ cf[tptf itv'[dtdb'b tmcgthbvtynbc cfvbdt gbhj,f&
itv'[dtdb'b tmcgthbvtynb fqbotht,f vbcb eh'bth'ufvjvhbw[fdb itltut,bc chekb
xfvjyf'dfkb'& fv itltut,c tktvtynfhekb [ljvbkj,t,b tojlt,f^ [jkj vf' chek
th'j,kbj,fc – tktvtynfhek [ljvbkj,f'f cbdhwt& erfyfcrytkb  fcj'b fqbybiyt,f^ 'db'
tktvtynfhekb [ljvbkj,f rb –  fcj'b ebyltmcjl fy byltmcb'&
2.1 vfufkb'bcf'dbc tktvtynfhek [ljvbkj,f'f cbdhwt bmyt,f

 = {u^c}. 
vfufkb'b 2.2. fujht,ty th' rfvf'tkc& wlfc tmdcb itltub itbskt,f /mjyltc (ptlf
of[yfupt othnbkt,bc hfjltyj,bc vb[tldb')
 = {1, 2, 3, 4^ 5^ 6 }. 
vfufkb'b 2.3. fult,ty jh c[dflfc[df vjytnfc& fm j'[b itcfskj itltubf lf
 = {uu, uc, cu, cc}. 

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vfufkb'b 2.4. fujht,ty jh ufhxtdfl rfvf'tkc^ fy jh]th fujht,ty th' rfvf'tkc& .jdtk
vjcfkjlytk itltuc itdecf,fvj' hbw[d'f o.dbkb (i, j)^ cflfw i gbhdtk rfvf'tkpt vjcfcdktkb
hbw[dbf^ [jkj j – vtjhtpt& fv wlbcf'dbc
 = { (1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6)
(2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6)
(3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6)
(4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6)
(5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6)
(6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6) }. 
vfufkb'b 2.5. vjytnfc fult,ty uth,bc gbhdtk ufvjxtyfvlt& fm
 = {u, cu, ccu, ...}.
ufyc[dfdt,b' gbhdtkb 4 vfufkb'bcfufy^ hjvkt,ibw  itbwfdlf tktvtynt,bc cfchek
hfjltyj,fc (itcf,fvbcfl 2, 6, 4 lf 36 tktvtynfhek [ljvbkj,fc)^ fv vfufkb'ib  ecfchekjf^
vfuhfv 'dkflb^ fye bct'b^ hjv itcfskt,tkbf tktvtynt,bc uflfyjvhdf& 
§ 2. {LJVBKJ<F& JGTHFWBT<B {LJVBKJ<T<PT
tktvtynfhekb [ljvbkj,t,bc hfbvt th'j,kbj,fc itlutybk [ljvbkj,fc^ fy e,hfkjl

[ljvbkj,fc eojlt,ty&
dbn.db'^ hjv wlbc itltufl [lt,f A [ljvbkj,f^ 'e wlfc vj/.df bct'b  tktvtynfhekb
[ljvbkj,f^ hjvtkbw A-c tre'dybc& tmcgthbvtynbc xfnfht,fvlt dth dbn.db'^ vj[lt,f 'e fhf A&
hfw itt[t,f -c^ bub wlbc .jdtkb xfnfht,bcfc [lt,f^ fye fewbkt,tkb [ljvbkj,ff^ [jkj ^
fye wfhbtkb cbvhfdkt (hjvtkbw fhwth' tktvtynfhek [ljvbkj,fc fh itbwfdc)^ ofhvjflutyc
iteskt,tk [ljvbkj,fc^ hjvtkbw wlbc fhwth'b xfnfht,bcfc fh vj[lt,f&
hjujhw d[tlfd'^ [ljvbkj,f c[df fhfathbf^ 'e fhf cbvhfdkt'f 'tjhbbc sbhb'flb
j,btmnb – cbvhfdkt* fvbnjv jgthfwbt,b itv'[dtdb' [ljvbkj,t,pt pecnfl bvlfudfhfl
ufybvfhnt,f^ hjujhw xdtekt,hbd cbvhfdktt,pt& e,hfkjl fv jgthfwbt,c cbvhfdkt'f
'tjhbbcfufy ufyc[dfdt,ekb cf[tkt,b /mdbf ('evwf^ xdty [ibhfl vbdvfh'fd' cbvhfdkt'f
'tjhbbc tyfcfw)& mdtvj' vj.dfybkbf w[hbkb^ cfblfyfw ptvj'mvekb yf'tkb uf[lt,f&
w[hbkb 2.1
cbvhfdkt'f 'tjhbbc tyf fk,f'j,bc 'tjhbbc tyf
 eybdthcfkehb cbdhwt fewbkt,tkb [ljvbkj,f
 wfhbtkb cbvhfdkt iteskt,tkb [ljvbkj,f
A-c cfobyffqvltuj [ljvbkj,f

A A cbvhfdkbc lfvfnt,f
(A [ljvbkj,f fh [lt,f)
A lf B [ljv& yfvhfdkb ('fyfrdt'f)
AB A lf B cbvhfdktt,bc 'fyfrdt'f (A lf B [ljvbkj,t,b th'fl [lt,f)
A lf B [ljv& ]fvb (ufth'bfyt,f)
AB A lf B cbvhfdktt,bc ufth'bfyt,f ([lt,f th'b vfbyw A lf B [ljv&)
A lf B [ljvbkj,f'f c[dfj,f
A\B A lf B cbvhfdktt,bc c[dfj,f ([lt,f A lf fh [lt,f B [ljv&)
AB A cbvhfdkt itlbc B-ib A [ljvbkj,f bodtdc B-c
A lf B [ljvbkj,f'f AB ]fvb (fye ufth'bfyt,f) tojlt,f bct'b  tktvtynfhekb

[ljvbkj,t,bc th'j,kbj,fc^ hjvkt,bw tre'dybc th'c vfbyw A lf B [ljvbkj,f'fufy (fy
v[jkjl A-c fy v[jkjl B-c^ fy A-cf lf B-c th'fl)&

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A lf B [ljvbkj,f'f AB yfvhfdkb (fye 'fyfrdt'f) tojlt,f bct'b -t,bc th'j,kbj,fc^

hjvkt,bw tre'dybfy A-c lf B-c th'fl& 'e AB=^ vfiby dbn.db'^ hjv A lf B [ljvbkj,t,b
e'fdct,flbf (bcbyb dth 'fdclt,f th'fl^ fh [lt,f th'fl)&
cbvjrkbcf'dbc A lf B [ljvbkj,f'f yfvhfdkc ('fyfrdt'fc) xdty fqdybiyfd' AB-'b&
[jkj e'fdct,fl A lf B [ljvbkj,f'f ]fvbcf'dbc dfv]j,byt,' A+B fqybidyfc&
A lf B [ljvbkj,f'f A\B c[dfj,f tojlt,f bct'b -t,bc th'j,kbj,fc^ hjvkt,bw
tre'dybc A-c lf fh tre'dybc B-c&
A-c cfobyffqvltuj [ljvbkj,ff A = \ A&
fv,j,ty^ hjv A [ljvbkj,f bodtdc B-c ('e vj[lf A^ vjv[lfhf B [ljvbkj,fw) lf othty A
B^ 'e A-ib itvfdfkb .jdtkb tktvtynfhekb [ljvbkj,f itlbc B-ibw&
'e ofhvjdbluty'^ hjv ohblfy itv'[dtdb' dbhxtd' othnbkc& vfiby tktvtynfhekb
[ljvbkj,t,b fv ohbc othnbkt,bf^ fewbkt,tkb [ljvbkj,ff v'tkb oht^ [jkj c[df
[ljvbkj,t,b fv ohbc mdtcbvhfdktt,bf& ptvj' xfvj'dkbkb jgthfwbt,b itbskt,f 'dfkcfxbyjl
ufvjdcf[j' t&o& dtybc (Venn) lbfuhfvt,bc cfiefkt,b'%
B
A A A
 A A AB
B B B
B
A A A
A
AB A\B AB AB=
yf[& 2.1. dtybc lbfuhfvt,b

vfufkb'b 2.6. (2.2. vfufkb'bc ufuhstkt,f) fv itv'[dtdfib tktvtynfhekb [ljvbkj,t,bf
1={1}, 2={2}, 3={3}, 4={4}, 5={5}, 6={6}& ufydcfpqdhj' [ljvbkj,t,b% A – @rfvf'tkpt
keob hbw[dbc vjcdkf#^ B – @rfvf'tkpt cfvbc ]thflb hbw[dbc vjcdkf#& ptvj' 'mvekbc
'fyf[vfl^ fqybiyekb [ljvbkj,t,b fct xfbotht,f A={2,4,6}, B={3,6}&
xfvj'dkbkb jgthfwbt,bcf'dbc vbdbqt,'%
AB ybiyfdc rfvf'tkpt keob fy cfvbc ]thflb hbw[dbc vjcdkfc^ AB={2,3,4,6}&
AB rfvf'tkpt th'lhjekfl keob lf cfvbc ]thflb hbw[dbc vjcdkff^ t&b& AB={6}&
keobc cfobyffqvltuj rtynbf lf fvbnjv A ={1,3,5}&
A\B ybiyfdc keob^ vfuhfv fhf cfvbc ]thflb hbw[dbc vjcdkfc^ t&b& A-lfy eylf fvjdfulj'
6 lf vfifcflfvt^ A\B={2,4}& 
§ 3. FK<F"J<F
d'mdf'^ itv'[dtdb' tmcgthbvtynbc n-]th xfnfht,bc itltufl hfbvt A [ljvbkj,f n(A)-

]th ufy[jhwbtklf& vfiby A [ljvbkj,bc afhlj,b' cb[ibhtf
 ( A)
fn(A) = n . (2.1)
n
afhlj,b' cb[ibht'f ev'fdhtcb 'dbct,ff vf'b vluhflj,f^ hfw itvltuib vlujvfhtj,c&
'e lfdfrdbhlt,b' afhlj,b'b cb[ibhbc .jafmwtdfc tmcgthbvtynbc ufyvtjht,f'f phlbc
rdfkj,fpt^ efvhfdb vfufkb'bf bvbcf^ hjv fn(A) vwbhtl bwdkt,f wlf'f cfrvfjl lblb hfjltyj,bc

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vbqotdbc itvltu lf vhfdfkb wlbcfufy itvlufhb th'b cthbblfy c[df fct'bdt cthbfpt
uflfcdkbcfc&
afhlj,b'b cb[ibhbc vluhflj,f udfabmht,byt,c lfdeidf'^ hjv fn(A) pjvfdc j,btmnehfl
fhct,ek P(A) hbw[dc – A [ljvbkj,bc fk,f'j,fc^ hjvtkbw vjwtvek wlfib [ljvbkj,bc
itcfskt,kj,bc [fhbc[bc vf[fcbf't,tkbf%
fn(A)  P(A). (2.2)
fk,f'j,bc erfyfcrytk ufyvfhnt,fc fk,f'j,bc cnfnbcnbreh ufyvfhnt,fc eojlt,ty&
fk,f'j,bc cnfnbcnbreh ufyvfhnt,f

hfbvt A [ljvbkj,bc P(A) fk,f'j,f fhbc fv [ljvbkj,bc afhlj,b'b cb[ibhbc "pqdhekb"
vybidytkj,f vhfdfk]th ufyvtjht,flb wlt,bcf'dbc&
vjdb.dfyj' t&o& fk,f'j,bc rkfcbrehb ufyvfhnt,f& 'e tktvtynfhek [ljvbkj,f'f

cbdhwt cfchekbf lf^ d'mdf'^ N othnbkbcfufy itlut,f^
 = {1, ... ,N},
[jkj M fhbc bv tktvtynfhek [ljvbkj,f'f hfjltyj,f^ hjvkt,bw ufycfpqdhfdty A
[ljvbkj,fc ( [tkc eo.j,ty A [ljvbkj,bc ufy[jhwbtkt,fc) lf itv'[dtdb'b tmcgthbvtynbc
.dtkf itltub th'yfbhflff vjcfkjlytkb (tktvtynfhek [ljvbkj,f'f ufy[jhwbtkt,f
njkitcfskjf)^ vfiby
M
P(A) = . (2.3)
N
fk,f'j,bc rkfcbrehb ufycfpqdht,f
'e itv'[dtdb' tmcgthbvtync fmdc th'yfbhfl vjcfkjlytk (njkitcfskj) itltu'f cfchekb
hfjltyj,f^ vfiby [ljvbkj,bc fk,f'j,f njkbf vbcb [tkitvo.j,b itltut,bc hfjltyj,bc
itafhlt,bcf .dtkf itcfskj itltu'f hfjltyj,fc'fy&
lfidt,f tktvtynfhek [ljvbkj,f'f njkitcfskj,kj,bc itcf[t, bvbc
trdbdfktynehbf^ hjv P()=1 lf yt,bcvbthb A [ljvbkj,bc fk,f'j,f vfcib itvfdfkb
tktvtynfhekb [ljvbkj,t,bc hfjltyj,bc ghjgjhwbekbf& fhct,j,c ,tdhb fvjwfyf^
hjvkbcf'dbcfw fqybiyekb ufycfpqdhf cfdct,b' cfrvfhbcbf& fk,f'j,bc rkfcbrehb ufycfpqdhf
bcnjhbekfl gbhdtkbf&
vfufkb'b 2.7. (2.2. vfufkb'bc ufuhstkt,f) cbvtnhbbc vjcfpht,blfy ufvjvlbyfht
rfvf'kbc .jdtk of[yfuc th'b lf bubdt fk,f'j,f itudbskbf vbdfybzj'& fmtlfy^ 'e A keob
hbw[dbc vjcdkfc ybiyfdc^ ufvjdf^ hjv P(A)=3/6=1/2& 
vfufkb'b 2.8. (2.3. vfufkb'bc ufuhstkt,f) cbvtnhbekb vjytnbcf'dbc uth,bc lf
cfafcehbc fk,f'j,t,b njkb ufvjdf& hfw itt[t,f jhb c[dflfc[df cbvtnhbekb vjytnbc fult,fc^
,eyt,hbdbf^ hjv uu^ uc^ cu^ cc tktvtynfhek [ljvbkj,f'fufy .jdtkc 1/4 fk,f'j,f vbtybzjc& 'e
A ybiyfdc^ hjv vjytnt,pt c[dflfc[df udthlt,b vjdblf^ udtmyt,f P(A)=1/2& 
f[kf itdelut' fk,f'j,bc wyt,bc ajhvfkbpfwbfc& 'e tktvtynfhek [ljvbkj,f'f
cbdhwt cfchekbf lf^ d'mdf'^ N othnbkbcfufy itlut,f^
 = {1, ... ,N},
tktvtynfhek [ljvbkj,t,c itdecf,fvj' p1,...,pN hbw[dt,b^ hjvkt,bw bct'bf^ hjv
(f) 0  pi  1, i = 1, ... , N; (,) p1 +  + pN = 1.
tc ybiyfdc^ hjv pi fhbc i tktvtynfhekb [ljvbkj,bc fk,f'j,f P({i})=pi&
'e cfchekb  cbdhwbc A [ljvbkj,f itbwfdc M othnbkc
A = { i1 ,..., iM },
vfiby
P(A) = p i1 + ... + p iM . (2.4)
w[flbf^ hjv
P() = p1++pN = 1. (2.5)
'e f[kf lfdeidt,'^ hjv A-cf lf B-c cfth'j tktvtynb fh uffxybf'^ fye AB=^ vfiby

Page 7 of 52
P(A+B) = P(A)+P(B),
hfw (2.5)-bc uf'dfkbcobyt,b' udfsktdc^ hjv

P(A)+P( A ) = 1 (2.6)
fye
P( A )=1–P(A).
[ljvbkj,bc (2.3) 'fyfafhlj,b' itvjqt,ek fk,f'j,fc itvltub 'dbct,t,b uffxybf&
P1. .jdtkb A [ljvbkj,bcf'dbc 0  P(A)  1*
P2. P()=1*
P3. 'e A lf B [ljvbkj,t,b e'fdct,flbf^ vfiby P(A+B) = P(A)+ P(B)&
erfyfcrytk 'dbct,fc fk,f'j,f'f itrht,bc 'dbct,f fye fk,f'j,bc flbwbehj,f tojlt,f&
§ 4. UTJVTNHBEKB FK<F"J<F
'e tktvtynfhek [ljvbkj,f'f cbdhwt  fhf'dkflbf^ vfiby fk,f'j,t,b vbtotht,f fhf

-c wfkrtek  othnbkt,c^ fhfvtl vbc mdtcbvhfdktt,c& xdty itvjdbafhukt,b' t&o& fk,f'j,bc
utjvtnhbekb ufycfpqdhb'&
d'mdf'^  ,hn.tkb fhtf lf itv'[dtdb' dbhxtd'  othnbkc -lfy^ [jkj A [ljvbkj,f
ofhvjflutyc  ,hn.tkb fhbc hfbvt yfobkc& vfiby bvbc fk,f'j,f^ hjv itv'[dtdb' fhxtekb 
othnbkb tre'dybc A-c^ (itflfht 2.6 vfufkb'c)^ fk,f'j,bc rkfcbrehb ufycfpqdhbc vcufdcfl
fhbc
| A|
P(A) = , (2.7)
||
cflfw |A| fm erdt afh'j,c ybiyfdc& (2.4) ajhvekb' ufvj'dkbk fk,f'j,fc utjvtnhbek
yf[& 2.2
fk,f'j,fc eojlt,ty& fqcfybiyfdbf^ hjv (2.8)-bc sfkb' wfkrtekb othnbkbc fk,f'j,f yekbc
njkbf^ hflufy othnbkbc afh'j,b yekbc njkbf (itflfht lbcrhtnek itv'[dtdfc)&
vfufkb'b 2.9. (it[dtlhbc fvjwfyf)& jhb gbhb it'fy[vlf ufhrdtek flubkpt it[dltc
th'vfyt'c 18-blfy 19 cff'fvlt& 'b'jtekb itv'[dtdb' vjvtynib vblbc lf vtjhtc tkjlt,f 20
oe'bc vfysbkpt& dbgjdj' fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv tc gbht,b th'vfyt'c it[dlt,bfy&
'e 18+x gbhdtkb gbhbc vjcdkbc vjvtynbf^ [jkj 18+y – vtjht gbhbcf (cflfw x lf y
cff't,ib bpjvt,f)^ tktvtynfhekb [ljvbkj,bc hjkib itudbskbf fdbhxbj' (x, y) othnbkb^
hjvtkbw  th'tekjdfy rdflhfnc fdct,c& w[flbf^ hjv xdty'dbc cfbynthtcj A [ljvbkj,f fhbc
cbvhfdkt%
A = {(x,y) : |x–y|1/3}.
fvhbufl^ .jdtkb abmcbht,ekb x-bcf'dbc^ 0x1,
x–1/3  y  x+1/3.

Page 8 of 52
y
1
1/3
0 1/3 2/3 1 x
yf[& 2.3.
hjwf 0x1/3, y = x–1/3 ohabc vfubth mdtlf cfpqdhbc hjkib bmyt,f x qthsb% 0yx+1/3^
[jkj hjwf 2/3x1^ ptlf cfpqdfhb y=x+1/3 ohabc vfubth bmyt,f y=1&
lfinhb[ekb fht^ w[flbf^ njklblbf jhb rdflhfnbc c[dfj,bcf^ hjvtk'fufy th'b
th'tekjdfybf^ vtjhtc udthlb rb fhbc 2/3& cf,jkjjl%
P(A) = 5/9. 
§ 5. {LJVBKJ<F"F }FVBC FK<F"J<F
fk,f'j,bc P3 'dbct,f^ itvltuyfbhfl pjufllt,f% yt,bcvbthb A lf B [ljvbkj,t,bcf'dbc
P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(AB). (2.8)

vfh'kfw^ AB=A+ A B lf B=AB+ A B ofhvjlutyt,b P3-bc sfkb' udfsktdc
P(AB)=P(A)+P( A B) lf P(B)=P(AB)+P( A B) ajhvekt,c (itcfrht,'f e'fdct,flj,bc ufvj)^
cfblfyfw vbbqt,f (2.8)&
jhpt vtnb [ljvbkj,bcf'dbc jgthfwbt,b htrehtynekfl ufybcfpqdht,f lf itcf,fvbcb
ajhvekt,bw fctdt vbbqt,f& vfufkb'fl^
P(ABC) = P((AB)C) = P(AB) + P(C) – P((AB)C) =
= P(A) + P(B) + P(C) – P(AB) – P(AC) – P(BC) + P(ABC).
§ 6. VWBHT FK<F"J<BC VMJYT {LJVBKJ<BC UFY{JHWBTKT<BC ITESKT<KJ<BC

GHBYWBGB
lfdeidf' A [ljvbkj,bc fk,f'j,f vwbhtf (f[kjcff yek'fy)& lfrdbhdt,f'f [fyuhskbdb

ghfmnbrf udbxdtyt,c^ hjv vwbht fk,f'j,bc vmjyt [ljvbkj,f th'tekjdfy wlfib^ evhfdktc
itv'[dtdfib^ fh [jhwbtklt,f& fv afmnbc cfaesdtkpt itcfskt,tkbf vbdbqj' t&o&
vwbht fk,f'j,bc vmjyt [ljvbkj,bc ufy[jhwbtkt,bc iteskt,kj,bc ghbywbgb:

'e itv'[dtdb'b [ljvbkj,bc fk,f'j,f vwbhtf (f[kjcff yek'fy)^ vfiby ghfmnbrekfl
itudbskbf xfd'dfkj'^ hjv th'tekjdfy wlfib bc fh ufy[jhwbtklt,f&
fvudfhfl^ 'e A [ljvbkj,bc fk,f'j,f vwbhtf (f[kjcff yek'fy)^ vfiby cfobyffqvltuj

A [ljvbkj,bc fk,f'j,f f[kjcff th''fy lf vwbht fk,f'j,bc vmjyt [ljvbkj,bc
ufy[jhwbtkt,bc iteskt,kj,bc ghbywbgblfy ufvjvlbyfht vbdbqt,' vtnfl vybidytkjdfy
itltuc:
'e itv'[dtdb'b [ljvbkj,bc fk,f'j,f f[kjcff th''fy^ vfiby ghfmnbrekfl itudbskbf

xfd'dfkj'^ hjv lblb fk,f'j,bc vmjyt [ljvbkj,f th'tekjdfy wlfib .jdtk'dbc
ufy[jhwbtklt,f

Page 9 of 52
§ 7. GBHJ<B"B FK<F"J<F^ {LJVBKJ<F"F YFVHFDKBC FK<F"J<F
ufydb[bkj' itvltub vfufkb'b.

vfufkb'b 2.10. wlf vlujvfhtj,c rfvf'kbc ufujht,fib& dbgjdj' fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv
th'b rfvf'kbc ufujht,bcfc 4-pt yfrkt,b hbw[db vjdf (A [ljvbkj,f)^ 'e wyj,bkbf^ hjv keob
hbw[db vjdblf (B [ljvbkj,f)&
fvj[cyf& ufydcfpqdhj' itvltub [ljvbkj,t,b% A = {1,2,3}, B={2,4,6}. fvhbufl
cfsbt,tkbf A [ljvbkj,bc gbhj,b'b fk,f'j,f B [ljvbkj,bc gbhj,b' (B gbhj,b'). fv
afmnc xdty fct xfdoth' P(A|B). B gbhj,bc ufhtit^ fk,f'j,bc rkfcbrehb ufyvfhnt,b'^ P(A)=1/2.
B gbhj,bc itchekt,bcfc^ hjvtkibw itlbc cfvb {2}, {4}, {6} tktvtynfhekb [ljvbkj,f^ A
[ljvbkj,bc [tkitvo.j,b tktvtynfhekb [ljvbkj,ff {2}^ hbc ufvjw P(A|B)=1/3.
fldbkb lfcfyf[bf^ hjv P{AB} = 1/6 lf P{B} = 3/6^ cfblfyfw cf,jkjjl^
P ( AB )
P{A|B}= =1[ljvbkj,f'f yfvhfdkbc fk,f'j, /3.
P( B)
hfw ofhvjflutyc gbhj,b'b fk,f'j,bc pjufl ufycfpqdht,fc& 
A [ljvbkj,bc gbhj,b'b fk,f'j,f B [ljvbkj,bc gbhj,b' (B gbhj,b', P(B)>0) tojlt,f
P( AB )
P(A|B) = (2.9)
P( B)
obkflc&
gbhj,b'b fk,f'j,bcf'dbc fuht'dt vbqt,ekbf fqybidyf PB(A). gbhj,b' fk,f'j,fc

P(A|B) egbhj,j P(A) fk,f'j,bc 'dbct,t,b uffxybf&
w[flbf^ hjv 'e P(B)>0^ (2.5) 'fyfafhlj,f udfsktdc
P(AB) = P(B)P(A|B) (2.10)

njkj,fc^ hjvtkcfw [ljvbkj,f'f yfvhfdkbc fk,f'j,bc ajhvekfc deojlt,'& fvfdt lhjc 'e
P(A)0, vfiby
P(AB) = P(A)P(B|A) = P(B)P(A|B). (2.11)
[ljvbkj,f'f yfvhfdkbc fk,f'j,f

jhb [ljvbkj,bc yfvhfdkbc fk,f'j,f njkbf th'-th'b vflufybc fk,f'j,bc yfvhfdkbcf
vtjhbc gbhj,b' fk,f'j,fpt gbhdtkbc gbhj,b'&
(2.11) ajhvekf ufvjb.tyt,f [ljvbkj,f'f fk,f'j,t,bc ufycfpqdhbcf'dbc^ hjltcfw

fvjwfybc gbhj,blfy yf'tkbf gbhj,b' fk,f'j,f'f vybidytkj,t,b&
§ 8. {LJVBKJ<F"F LFVJERBLT<KJ<F
A lf B [ljvbkj,t,c tojlt,f lfvjerblt,tkb^ 'e
P(AB) = P(A)P(B). (2.12)
bv itv'[dtdfib^ hjwf P(A)>0, P(B)>0^ (2.8) trdbdfktynehbf jhb 'fyfafhlj,bcf%
P(A|B) = P(A), P(B|A) = P(B), (2.13)
fye th'b [ljvbkj,bc vj[ltyf fh wdkbc vtjhbc fk,f'j,fc&

Page 10 of 52
fvhbufl^ lflt,b'b fk,f'j,bc vmjyt A lf B [ljvbkj,t,bcf'dbc lfvjerblt,kj,bc

ufycfpqdht,fl itbskt,f vbdbqj' th'-th'b (2.13) 'fyfafhlj,t,blfy (hjvtkbw fdnjvfnehfl
bodtdc vtjht 'fyfafhlj,fc)&
'e (2.13 ) fh cheklt,f^ A lf B [ljvbkj,t,c lfvjrblt,ekb [ljvbkj,t,b tojlt,f&
vfufkb'b 2.11. .e'ib s ,bh'dbf^ vf' ijhbc t 't'hbf^ lfyfhxtyb rb ifdb& A1 ybiyfdc^ hjv
.e'blfy fvjqt,ekb gbhdtkb ,bh'db 't'hbf^ A2 rb ybiyfdc^ hjv .e'blfy fvjqt,ekb vtjht
,bh'dbf 't'hbf& .e'blfy lf,heyt,bc ufhtit fvjqt,bcfc tc [ljvbkj,t,b lfvjrblt,ekbf^
dbyfblfy
P(A2|A1)  P(A2).
'e fvjqt,f lf,heyt,b' [lt,f^ vfiby w[flbf^ hjv
P(A2|A1) = P(A2). 
cfvb A1, A2 lf A3 [ljvbkj,bc lfvjerblt,kj,f ybiyfdc^ hjv bcbyb o.dbk-o.dbkfl

lfvjerblt,tkbf^ fye
P(AiAj) = P(Ai)P(Aj), cflfw i  j, i, j = 1,2,3, (2.14)
lf ufhlf fvbcf
P(A1A2A3) = P(A1)P(A2)P(A3). (2.15)
fqcfybiyfdbf^ hjv (2.14)-bc fy (2.15)-bc lfhqdtdf lfvjerblt,kj,fc ufvjhbw[fdc&
fhct,j,c vfhnbdb vfufkb't,b bvbcf^ hjv th'b gbhj,blfy vtjht fh ufvjvlbyfhtj,c&
vfufkb'b 2.12. .e'ib 4 ,bh'dbf ofhotht,b' 1,2,3 lf 123& Ai ybiyfdltc^ hjv itv'[dtdb'
fvjqt,ek ,bh'dc fothbf wbahb i^ i=1,2,3&
w[flbf^ hjv P(Ai)=1/2, P(AiAj)=1/4, i  j, i, j=1,2,3^ vfuhfv
P(A1A2A3)=1/4P(A1)P(A2)P(A3)=1/8,
vfiby^ hjwf .jdtkb i, j=1,2,3, o.dbkbcf'dbc (ij) P(AiAj) = P(Ai)P(Aj). 
3-pt vtnb [ljvbkj,bcf'dbc lfvjerblt,kj,f fyfkjubehfl ufybcfpqdht,f&
§ 9. UFVHFDKT<BC GHBYWBGB^ LTYLHJUHFVF
[ibhfl tktvtynfhek [ljvbkj,f'f cbdhwbcf lf [ljvbkj,bc fk,f'j,bc ufycfpqdhf

gbhlfgbhb uflf'dkb' iteskt,tkbf& fct' itv'[dtdfib eylf vbdvfh'j' rjv,byfnjhekb
fyfkbpbc vbth itveifdt,ek vt'jlt,c&
f[kf xdty xfvjdf.fkb,t,' rjv,byfnjhekb fyfkbpbc sbhb'fl ghbywbgc^ hjvtkcfw
ufvhfdkt,bc ghbywbgb tojlt,f&
'e fcfhxtdbf k cfufyb lf fhct,j,c gbhdtkb cfuybc fhxtdbc n1 dfhbfynb^ [jkj gbhdtkb
cfuybc fhxtdbc itvltu fhct,j,c vtjht cfuybc fhxtdbc n2 dfhbfynb^ &&& ^ lf ,jkjc^ k–1 cfuybc
fhxtdbc itvltu fhct,j,c k-ehb cfuybc fhxtdbc nk dfhbfynb^ vfiby fhct,j,c fv k cfuybc fv
vbvltdhj,b' fhxtdbc n1n2nk dfhbfynb&
vj.dfybk ghbywbg'fy lfrfdibht,b' [ibhfl cfcfhut,kjf [bc vcufdcb ([bct,hb)
lbfuhfvbc fye ltylhjuhfvbc ufvj.tyt,f&
vfufkb'b 2.13. ufvjdcf[j' ltylhjuhfvb' vjytnbc jh]th fult,bc itcf,fvbcb itltut,bc
cbvhfdkt& @u# ybiyfdltc uth,c^ [jkj @c# – cfafcehc&
u 1
u
c
2
u
c 3
c S
4
2

Page 11 of 52
yf[. 2.3. 
vfufkb'b 2.14. 'e vfvfrfwc fmdc 2 gthfyub lf 4 /fkcne[b^ vfiby vfc /mjybf gthfyubc lf
/fkcne[bc ithxtdbc 24=8 dfhbfynb&
'e a1, a2 fqybiyfdc gthfyut,c^ [jkj b1, b2 b3, b4 – /fkcne[t,c^ vfiby gthfyubcf lf
/fkcne[bc fhxtdbc c[dflfc[df upf itbskt,f itvltub ltylhjuhfvb' fdcf[j'
b1 1
b2
2
b3
a1
b4 3
4
a2 b1 5
S b2 6
2
b3
7
b4
8
yf[& 2.4. 
§ 10. O>J<F^ UFLFYFWDKT<F^ }EA"T<F
d'mdf'^ vjwtvekbf n ufyc[dfdt,ekb j,btmnb lf xdty udcehc r vf'ufyb th' [fppt

ufdfvorhbdj'& dbyfblfy gbhdtkc fdbhxtd' n-yfbhfl^ itvltu fdbhxtd' vtjhtc n–1-yfbhfl^ & & & ^ vt-
r-tc [n–(r–1)]-yfbhfl^ vf' th'j,kbj,fc^ fye r j,btmnbc lfkfut,ek rjvgktmnc^ hjvtkcfw
o.j,fc eojlt,ty^ fdbhxtd'
Anr = n(n–1)(n–r+1)  (n)r (2.16)
hfjltyj,b'& fm xdty ufvjdb.tyt' ufvhfdkt,bc ghbywbgb (n1=n, n2=n–1, ... , nr=n–r+1).
hjltcfw r = n, (2.16)-blfy vbbqt,f
Ann = n(n–1)21 = n!
(n! brb'[t,f hjujhw n afmnjhbfkb) lf fvudfh o.j,fc uflfyfwdkt,f tojlt,f& o.j,t,b
ufyc[dfdlt,bfy hbub' fy itvflutykj,b'^ vfiby hjwf uflfyfwdkt,t,c th'b lf bubdt
itvflutykj,f fmd' lf v[jkjl hbub' ufyc[dfdlt,bfy&
(2.16)-bc xfothf afmnjhbfkt,b' itbskt,f itvltuyfbhfl%
n!
Anr = , (2.17)
(n − r )!
cflfw buekbc[vt,f^ hjv 0! = 1&

Page 12 of 52
f[kf ufydb[bkj' bc itv'[dtdf^ hjwf n cfuyblfy r cfufyc dbhxtd' ufyvtjht,b'^ fye

.jdtkb fhxtekb cfufyb erfy ,heylt,f vbcb abmcfwbbc itvltu& vfiby ufvhfdkt,bc ghbywbgib eylf
dbuekbc[vj'^ hjv
n1 = n2 =  = nr = n
lf t&o& ufyvtjht,b'b o.j,f n cfuyblfy fvjbhxtdf
Gnr = nr (2.18)
hfjltyj,b'&
]ea't,f tojlt,f o.j,f'f v'tk rkfcc^ hjvtk'fw th'b lf bubdt itvflutykj,f uffxybf&
fvudfhfl r-tktvtynbfyb ]ea't,f n tktvtynblfy ofhvjflutyc n tktvtynbc r-tktvtynbfy
mdtcbvhfdktc (vfufkb'fl ab lf ba th'b lf bubdt 2-tktvtynbfyb ]ea't,t,bf)&
n!
]ea't,f'f hfjltyj,f C nr fqbybiyt,f&fc^ bmtlfy^ hjv C nr r!= Anr = ^ vbdbqt,'
( n − r )!
]ea't,f'f hfjltyj,bc ufvjcf'dktk ajhvekfc
Ar n!
C nr = n = . (2.19)
r! r!( n − r )!
(2.19) ajhvekblfy xfyc lf 'db' ufyvfhnt,blfy w[flbf (n-tktvtynbfyb cbvhfdkbc
fhxtdb' fdnjvfnehfl dbhxtd' (n–r)-tktvtynbfy cbvhfdktc)^ hjv
C nr = C nn − r .
vfufkb'b 2.15. d'mdf'^ 5 ,bh'dblfy^ hjvkt,cfw fothbf' wbaht,b 1;2;3;4;5, itv'[dtdb'
eylf itbhxtc cfvb ,bh'db& ithxtdbc itltub itbskt,f b.jc yt,bcvbthb mdtvj' ofhvjlutybkb
dfhbfynt,blfy
123 132 213 231 312 321
124 142 214 241 412 421
125 152 215 251 512 521
134 143 314 341 413 431
135 153 315 351 513 531
145 154 415 451 514 541
234 243 324 342 423 432
235 253 325 352 523 532
245 254 425 452 524 542
345 354 435 354 534 543
5 tktvtynbfy cbvhfdkbc .dtkf itcfskj 3 tktvtynbfy o.j,f'f hfjltyj,f

5!
A53 = = 60 -bc
(5 − 3)!
njkbf& fvfc'fy w[hbkbc .jdtk cnhbmjyib vb'b't,ekb dfhbfynt,b ufyc[dfdlt,bfy v[jkjl
tktvtyn'f 'fyvbvltdhj,b'^ fye vf'b hfjltyj,f njkbf 3 tktvtynbfy uflfyfwdkt,f'f hbw[dbc
3!=6. w[hbkbc c[dflfc[df cnhbmjyt,ib vb'b't,ekb dfhbfynt,b th'b tktvtynb' vfbyw
ufyc[dfdlt,bfy lf vf'b hfjltyj,ff
5!
C 53 = = 10
3!(5 − 2)!
fmtlfy ufvjvlbyfht w[hbkbc .jdtk wfkrt fqt,ek cdtnib tktvtynt,bc hfjltyj,f C 53 -bc
njkbf& fvfc'fy ]ea't,bc 'dfkcfphbcb' cdtnt,b bltynehbf& 

Page 13 of 52
§ 11. FK<F"J<F"F UFVJ"DKF LTYLHJUHFVT<BC VTIDTJ<B"
ltylhjuhfvt,b xdty h'ekb tmcgthbvtynt,bc itltut,bc fqcfothfl itvjdbqt'& 'e

@injt,bc# fye @e,yt,bc" th'j,kbj,fc ltylhjuhfvbc @atcdblfy# ,jkjvlt @,bkbrc# lfdfh-
mdtd'^ vfiby^ 'e .dtkf @,bkbrb" njkfk,f'ehbf^ 'b'jtekb vf'ufybc fk,f'j,f bmyt,f th'b
itafhlt,ekb @,bkbrt,bc" cfth'j hfjltytj,fc'fy& [ibhfl 'db' @,bkbrbc" fk,f'j,bc
ufvj'dkfc czbhlt,f fk,f'j,f'f ufvhfdkt,bc ]fzdehb otcbc ufvj.tyt,f^ hfcfw vbd.tdfh'
c[dflfc[df fk,f'j,bc vmjyt @,bkbrt,fvlt" lf h'ekb [ljvbkj,bc fk,f'j,bc ufvjcf'dktkfl
udzbhlt,f 'b'jtekb @,bkbrbc" fk,f'j,bc ufvj'dkf 'db' @,bkbrbc" fut,ekt,bcf lf
vjwtvekb fk,f'j,bcf lf gbhj,b'b fk,f'j,bc cfiefkt,b'&
d'mdf'^ th'vfyt'bc vb.jkt,b' nfhlt,f jhb tmcgthbvtynb% A, hjvkbc itltut,bf a lf b
lf B^ hjvkbc itltut,bf ^ , , vfiby hjwf tmcgthbvtynb ^ hjvtkbw ybiyfdc ]th A-cf lf itvltu
B-c xfnfht,fc fhbc o.dbkt,bc itvltub cbvhfdkt
 = AB={a, a, a, b, b, b}.
'e f[kf vjwtvekbf A-c itltut,bc pa lf pb fk,f'j,t,b pa+pb=1 lf ufhlf fvbcf^ gbhj,b'b
fk,f'j,t,b pa^ pa^ pa (pa+pa+pa=1), pb^ pb^ pb (pb+pb+ pb=1)^ vfiby .jdtkb @,bkbrbc#
fk,f'j,f vjbwtvf hjujhw fk,f'j,bcf lf gbhj,b'b fk,f'j,bc yfvhfdkb
pa  P(a)= papa

a pa
pa  P(a)= papa
pa
S
 P(a)= papa
pb  P(b)=2 pbpb
pb
b pb S
pb S  P(b)= pbpb
2 S
2 
P(b)= pbpb
2
yf[& 2.5.
fldbkb ofhvjcflutybf^ 'e hjujh itbwdkt,f tc ltylhjuhfvf vtcfvt^ vtj'[t lf f&i&
tmcgthbvtynbc fhct,j,bcfc& yf'tkbf^ hjv ltylhjuhfvbc 'b'jtekb @,bkbrbc# fk,f'j,f vbcb
@injt,bc " (fye @e,yt,bc") fk,f'j,f'f yfvhfdkbc njkbf&
vfufkb'b 2.16. cfvb th'yfbhb ehyf a, b lf c itbwfdc c[dflfc[df hfjltyj,bc 't'h lf ifd
,bh'dt,c& gbhdtkib 4 't'hb lf 1 ifdb ,bh'dbf^ vtjhtib – 2 't'hb lf 3 ifdb^ [jkj vtcfvtib – 3
't'hb lf 7 ifdb ,bh'db& itv'[dtdb' dbhxtd' ehyfc lf fv ehyblfy itv'[dtdb' dbhxtd' ,bh'dc& hf
fhbc fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv tc ,bh'db 't'hbf~
fvj[cyf& vbdvfh'j' ltylhjuhfvfc& 't'h ,bh'dc itdecf,fvj' @'# fcj^ [jkj ifdc @i#&
udtmyt,f

Page 14 of 52
1 4
4/5 ' P(a')= 
a 3 5
1/5 1 1
i P(ai)= 
3 5
1/3
1 2
b
2/5 ' P(b')= 
1/3 3 5
3/5 1 3
i P(bi)= 
1/3 3 5
S 1 3
c 3/10 ' P(c')= 
2
3 10
7/10 S 1 7
i P(ci)= 3  10
S
2
2
yf[& 2.6.
w[flbf^ hjv itvjqt,ekb A [ljvbkj,ff fhbc a', b' lf c' @,bkbrt,bc# th'j,kbj,f lf
fvbnjv
P(A) = P(a') + P(b') + P(c') = 1/2. 
fv vfufkb'ib ufy[bkekb ltylhjuhfvt,bc vt'jlb lf t&o&chekb fk,f'j,bc ajhvekf

cbh'ekbc vb[tldb' lblfl fh ufyc[dfdlt,f (jhrjvgjytynbfy itlutybk wlt,ib tc .jdtk'dbc
fctf)^ 'evwf ltylhjuhfvt,bc vt'jlb eahj 'dfkcfxbyjf^ hfw eahj vtnfl dkbylt,f^ hjltcfw
wlf'f hfjltyj,f jhpt vtnbf&
§ 12. CHEKB FK<F"J<BCF LF <FBTCBC AJHVEKT<B
H1,H2,...,Hn [ljvbkj,f'f th'j,kbj,fc [ljvbkj,f'f chekb cbcntvf tojlt,f^ 'e

H1+H2++Hn = 
lf
HiHj=, i  j, i, j=1,...,n.
'e H1,H2,...,Hn [ljvbkj,f'f chekb cbcntvff^ vfiby yt,bcvbthb A [ljvbkj,bcf'dbc (b[& yf[&
2.7)
A = AH1+AH2++AHn ,
H1 H2
AA
H3 H4
yf[& 2.7.
cfblfyfw P(AHi)=P(Hi)P(A|Hi) njkj,f (b[& (2.11)) lf fk,f'j,bc flbwbehj,f udfsktdc chekb

fk,f'j,bc ajhvekfc
n
P(A)= P(H1)P(A|H1)++P(Hn)P(A|Hn)=  P( H ) P( A | H ) .
i =1
i i (2.20)
H1,H2,...,Hn [ljvbkj,t,c pju]th /bgj'tpt,c eojlt,ty&

Page 15 of 52
vfufkb'b 2.17. (vfufkb'b 2.16-bc ufuhstkt,f) ufvjdb.tyj' chekb fk,f'j,bc ajhvekf&

H1 ybiyfdc gbhdtkb ehybc fhxtdfc^ H2 – vtjhtcb^ H3 – vtcfvt ehybcf& P(H1)=P(H2)=P(H3)=1/3.
't'hb ,bh'dbc fhxtdf b.jc A [ljvbkj,f& w[flbf^ hjv P(A|H1)=4/5, P(A|H2)=2/5, P(A|H3)=3/10&
chekb fk,f'j,bc ajhvekb'& (itflfht yf[& 2&7& vjwtvekb ltylhjuhfvbc ,bkbrt,c)
1 4 1 2 1 3 7
P(A)=  +  +  = . 
3 5 3 5 3 10 10
fvhbufl^ chekb fk,f'j,bc ajhvekf cfiefkt,fc bsktdf fk,f'j,f ufvjb'dfkjc
tktvtynfhek [ljvbkj,f'f cbdhwbc feut,kfl&
'e f[kf ufdb[ctyt,' (2.11) ajhvekfc lf B-c vfubdhfl xfdcdfv' Hi-c ^ ufvjdf^ hjv
P( H i ) P( A | H i )
P(Hi|A) = ,
P ( A)
cfblfyfw chekb fk,f'j,bc ajhvekbc ufvj.tyt,b' vbdbqt,' ,fbtcbc ajhvekt,c
P( H i ) P( A | H i )
P(Hi|A) = n
, i = 1, 2, …, n.
 P( H j ) P( A | H j )
j =1
[ibhfl ,fbtcbc ajhvekt,b vjb[ctybt,f^ hjujhw /bgj'tpf'f fk,f'j,t,bc^ fy vbptp'f

fk,f'j,t,bc ajhvekt,b& vf' itvltub ibyffhcb tsktdf%
H1,H2,...,Hn bc vbptpt,bf (/bgj'tpt,bf)^ hjvtk'fw ittskj' ufvjtodbf' A [ljvbkj,bc
vj[ltyf& wyj,bkbf P(H1), P(H2),..., P(Hn) fk,f'j,t,b wlbc xfnfht,fvlt (a priori)^ hjvtk'fw
/bgj'tpf'f fghbjhek fk,f'j,t,c eojlt,ty& ,fbtcbc ajhvekt,b' vjbwtvf bc itcfskj
wdkbkt,t,b^ hfcfw wlbc xfnfht,bc itvltu (a posteriori) ufybwlbfy fghbjhekb fk,f'j,t,b lf
vbqt,ek vybidytkj,t,c fgjcnthbjhek fk,f'j,t,c eojlt,ty&
vfufkb'b 2.18. (vfufkb'b 2.17-bc ufuhstkt,f) d'mdf' ehyblfy itv'[dtdb' fvjqt,ekb
,bh'db 't'hbf& hf fhbc fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv tc ,bh'db fvjqt,ek bmyf b ehyblfy~
fvj[cyf& ,fbtcbc ajhvekbc 'fyf[vfl P(H2|A)=4/5. 
§ 13. EXCEL
ufydb[bkj' Excel-bc itvltub aeymwbt,b

FACT, PERMUT, COMBIN.
fv aeymwbt,bc xfothbcfc ufvj.tyt,ekb fqybidyt,bc bynthghtnfwbf lf ibyffhcj,hbdb
lfndbh'df vjwtvekbf w[hbkib
fqybidyf ibyffhcb
Number tktvtyn'f hfjltyj,f vjwtvek cbvhfdktib (gjgekfwbfib)
Number tktvtyn'f hfjltyj,f fvjhxtek cbvhfdktib
chosen
FACT aeymwbbc xfothbc cbynfmcb fct'bf:

FACT(Number).
FACT– ufvjbfyufhbit,f n tktvtynbfyb cbvhfdkbc .dtkf itcfskj uflfyfwdkt,f'f hbw[db
ajhvekb' FACT(n)= 12...n=n!.
vfufkb'b&
hfvltyb ufyc[dfdt,ekb 'fyvbvltdhj,b' itbskt,f ufydfkfuj' 'fhjpt [e'b c[dflfc[df obuyb~
fvj[cyf&
cfsbt,tkb dfhbfynt,bc hfjltyj,f njkbf n=5 tktvtynbfyb cbvhfdkbc .dtkf itcfskj
uflfyfwdkt,f'f hbw[dbc& fv vfufkb'bcf'dbc FACT aeymwbf fct xfbotht,f:
FACT(Number)= FACT(5).
Page 16 of 52
ufvj'dkbc itltufl vbdbqt,'^ hjv [e'b c[dflfc[df obuyb 'fhjpt itbskt,f lfdfo.j' 120
c[dflfc[df 'fyvbvltdhj,b'& 
PERMUT aeymwbbc xfothbc cbynfmcb fct'bf:
PERMUT (Number, Number chosen).
PERMUT- ufvjbfyufhbit,f n tktvtynbfyb cbvhfdkbc .dtkf itcfskj k tktvtynbfy o.j,f'f
n!
hbw[db ajhvekb' ,
(n − k ) !
vfufkb'b&
hfvltyb [th[b' itbskt,f [e'b rfwbc fhxtdf [e' c[dflfc[df 'fyfvlt,j,fpt^ 'e rfylblfn'f
hbw[dbf 9~
fvj[cyf&
w[flbf^ dfhbfynt,bc cfsbt,tkb hfjltyj,f njkbf n=9 tktvtynbfyb cbvhfdkbc .dtkf itcfskj
k=5 tktvtynbfy o.j,f'f hbw[dbc& fv fvjwfybcf'dbc PERMUT aeymwbf fct xfbotht,f:
PERMUT(Number, Number chosen)= PERMUT(9, 5).
ufvj'dkbc itltufl vbdbqt,'^ hjv vodh'ytkc gbhdtkb [e'tekbc lfcfrjvgktmnt,kfl fmdc
15120 dfhbfynb& 
COMBIN aeymwbbc xfothbc cbynfmcb fct'bf:
COMBIN (Number, Number chose).
COMBIN- ufvjbfyufhbit,f n tktvtynbfyb cbvhfdkbc .dtkf itcfskj k tktvtynbfy ]ea't,f'f
n!
hbw[db ajhvekb' COMBIN (n, k)=
k !( n − k ) !
vfufkb'b&
crjkbc rfkf',eh'bc ueylib 9 vjcofdktf& ueylbc itcflutyfl cfzbhjf [e'b vj'fvfit& hfvltyb
[th[b' iteskbf voh'dytkc sbhb'flb ueylbc itlutyf~
fvj[cyf&
sbhb'flb ueylbc itlutybc dfhbfyn'f hfjltyj,f njkbf n=9 tktvtynbfyb cbvhfdkbc .dtkf
itcfskj k=5 tktvtynbfy ]ea't,f'f hbw[dbc& fv fvjwfybcf'dbc COMBIN aeymwbf fct
xfbotht,f:
COMBIN (Number, Number chosen)= COMBIN (9.5).
ufvj'dkbc itltufl vbdbqt,'^ hjv vodh'ytkc ufyc[dfdt,ekb itvflutykj,bc gbhdtkb
[e'tekbc lfcfrjvgktmnt,kfl fmdc 15120 dfhbfynb& 
RB"{DT<B "DB"ITVJOVT<BCF"DBC
• hjujh ufybvfhnt,f itv'[dtdb'b tmcgthbvtynb~

• xfvjf.fkb,t' tktvtynfhekb [ljvbkt,bc ufyvfhnt,f
• hfc eojlt,ty tktvtynfhek [ljvbkj,f cbdhwtc~
• hfc eojlt,ty (itv'[dtdb') [ljvbkj,fc~
• hfc tojlt,f jhb [ljvbkj,bc ufth'bfyt,f^ ]fvb^ c[dfj,f~
• hfc ybiyfdc A  B ?
• hfc tojlt,f [ljvbkj,bc cfobyffqvltuj [ljvbkj,f~
• hjujh ufvjb'dkt,f gbhj,b'b fk,f'j,f~
• hf itv'[dtdfib tojlt,f' [ljvbkj,t,c lfvjerblt,tkb~
• hjujh ufvjb'dkt,f [ljvbkj,f'f yfvhfdkbc fk,f'j,f~
• [ljvbkj,f'f hjujh cbcntvfc tojlt,f chekb~
• hfib vlujvfhtj,c chekb fk,f'j,bc ajhvekbc ibyffhcb~
• hfib vlujvfhtj,c ,fbtcbc ajhvekbc ibyffhcb~
• hfc tojlt,f uflfyfwdkt,f~ o.j,f~ ]ea't,f~
• vjb.dfyt' uflfyfwdkt,bc^ o.j,bcf lf ]ea't,bc ajhvekt,b&

Page 17 of 52
• hjujh ufvjb'dkt,f fk,f'j,t,b ltylhjuhfvt,bc cfiefkt,b'~
CFDFH}BIJT<B
2.1. xfvj'dkbkb [ljvbkj,t,blfy hjvtkbf fewbkt,tkb^ itv'[dtdb'b lf iteskt,tkb%

f) wlf-rfvf'kbc ufujht,f* [ljvbkj,t,b%
A1-rtynb hbw[dbc vjcdkf*
A2- cfvbc ]thflb hbw[dbc vjcdkf*
A3-th'ybiyf hbw[dbc vjcdkf*
A4- jhybiyf hbw[dbc vjcdkf*
,) wlf-cfvbpytc tcdhbfy j'[]th* [ljvbkj,t,b%
A1-th'b vj[dtlhf vfbyw*
A2- cfvb vj[dtlhf*
A3- fhw th'b vj[dtlhf*
A4- [e'b vj[dtlhf*
u) wlf- cf'fvfij rfhnbc lfcnblfy [e'b rfhnbc fvjqt,f*[ljvbkj,t,b%
A1- fvjqt,ek rfhnt,ib th'b vfbyw nepbf*
A2- cfvb nepbf*
A3- .dtkf nepbf*
A4- th'-th'b vflufyb ob'tkbf fy ifdb*
l) wlf- idblb rfvf'kbc ufujht,f* [ljvbkj,t,b%
A1- .dtkf rfvf'tkpt th'b lf bubdt mekbc vjcdkf*
A2- rfvf'kt,pt ufyc[dfdt,ekb mekt,bc vjcdkf*
A3- rfvf'kt,pt vjcekb mekt,bc ]fvb 45-c fh fqtvfnt,f*
A4- rfvf'kt,pt vjcekb mekt,bc ]fvb tmdc fh fqtvfnt,f *
2.2. lffcf[tkt' vjwtvekb [ljvbkj,bc cfobyffqvltuj [ljvbkj,f%

f)rfvf'tkpt rtynb hbw[dbc vjcdkf* ,) rfvf'tkpt jhbfybc vjcdkf* u) jhb rfvf'kbc ufujht,bcfc
vjcek mekf'f ]fvb 12-c fh fqtvfnt,f* l) jhb vjytnbc fult,bcfc jhbdtpt uth,bc vjcdkf&
2.3. 'fdct,flbf 'e fhf itvltub [ljvbkj,t,b

f) wlf- rfhnbc fvjqt,f lfcnblfy *[ljvbkj,t,b%
A1- fvjqt,ekbf ]dhbc rfhnb*
A2- fvjqt,ekbf nepb *
,) wlf- rfvf'kbc ufujht,f* [ljvbkj,t,b%
A1- keob hbw[dbc vjcdkf*
A2- cfvbc ]thflb hbw[bc vjcdkf*
A3- elbltcb itcfskj hbw[bc vjcdkf&
u) wlf- rfvf'kbc ufujht,f* [ljvbkj,t,b%
A2- rtynb hbw[bc vjcdkf&
l) wlf- jhb rfvf'kbc ufujht,f* [ljvbkj,t,b%
A1- th' rfvf'tkpt rtynb hbw[dbc vjcdkf*
A2- th' rfvf'tkpt keob hbw[dbc vjcdkf&
A3- rfvf'kt,pt th'b lf bubdt mekbc vjcdkf*
t) wlf- lfcnblfy jhb rfhnbc fvjqt,f* [ljvbkj,t,b%
A1- jhbdt rfhnb th'b lf bubdt athbcff*
A2- th'-th'b rfhnb nepbf*
A3- th'-th'b rfhnb tmdcbfybf *
Page 18 of 52
2.4. njkitcfskt,tkbf 'e fhf [ljvbkj,t,b

f) wlf- rfvf'kbc ufujht,f* [ljvbkj,t,b%
A2- rtynb hbw[bc vjcdkf&
,) wlf-cfvbpytc tcdhbfy jh]th* [ljvbkj,t,b%
A1-th'b vj[dtlhf*
A2- jhb fwltyf*
A3- th'b vj[dtlhf^ th'b fwltyf*
u) wlf- rfvf'kbc ufujht,f* [ljvbkj,t,b%
A2- cfvbc ]thflb hbw[bc vjcdkf&
l) wlf- lfcnblfy rfhnbc fvjqt,f* [ljvbkj,t,b%
A1- nepbc fvjqt,f*
A2- tmdcbfybc fvjqt,f&
t) wlf- jhb vjytnbc fult,f* [ljvbkj,t,b%
A1- jhbdt vjytnfpt uth,bc vjcdkf*
A2- jhbdt vjytnfpt cfafcehbc vjcdkf*
A3- th' vjytnfpt cfafcehbc vjcdkf^ vtjhpt-uth,bc&
2.5. A lf B -jhb yt,bcvbthb [ljvbkj,ff& xfotht' itvltub [ljvbkj,t,b%

f) vj[lf v[jkjl A [ljvbkj,f*
,) vj[lf v[jkjl B [ljvbkj,f*
u) jhbdt [ljvbkj,f vj[lf*
l) fhw th'b [ljvbkj,f fh vj[lf*
t) vj[lf v[jkjl th'-th'b [ljvbkj,f*
2.6. A,B,C -cfvb yt,bcvbthb [ljvbkj,ff& xfotht' itvltub [ljvbkj,t,b%

f) vj[lf v[jkjl B [ljvbkj,f*
,) vj[lf v[jkjl B lf C [ljvbkj,t,b*
u) cfvbdt [ljvbkj,f vj[lf*
l) fhw th'b [ljvbkj,f fh vj[lf*
t) vj[lf th'-th'b [ljvbkj,f vfbyw*
d) vj[lf jhb [ljvbkj,f vfbyw*
p) vj[lf v[jkjl th'-th'b [ljvbkj,f*
') vj[lf v[jkjl jhb [ljvbkj,f*
b) vj[lf fhf evtntc jhb [ljvbkj,bcf&
2.7. .jdtkb fqothbkb tmcgthbvtynbcf'dbc xfvj'dfkt' .dtkf tktvtynfhekb [ljvbkj,f lf

ufvj.fdb' bcbyb^ hjvkt,bw lfcf[tkt,ek [ljvbkj,fc itflutyty%
f) tmcgthbvtynb% rfhnbc cnfylfhnekb lfcnblfy dbhxtd' th' rfhnc*
[ljvbkj,f% vjlbc @dfktnb#&
,) tmcgthbvtynb% ,fdidc ]b,tib fmdc 5-'t'hbfyb^ 10-'t'hbfyb^ 20-'t'hbfyb lf 50-'t'hbfyb 'b'j
vjytnf lf bub itv'[dtdb' bqt,c ]b,blfy th' vjytnfc*
[ljvbkj,f% vjytnbc qbht,ekt,f 20 't'hc fh fqtvfnt,f&
u) tmcgthbvtynb% jhb vjytnbc fvjqt,f itv'[dtdb' (b)-c gbhj,t,ib*
[ljvbkj,f% vjytnt,bc ]fvehb qbht,ekt,f fh fqtvfnt,f 30 't'hc&
l) tmcgthbvtynb% cfvidbkbfy j]f[ib dboth' ,fdidt,bc cmtcc lf dfkfut,' fcfrbc vb[tldb'*
[ljvbkj,f% j]f[ib fhfevtntc jhb df;bf&
2.8. fult,ty 5-'t'hbfy^ 10-'t'hbfy lf 20-'t'hbfy 'b'j vjytnfc lf fct'bdt vbvltdhj,b' bothty
uth,bcf lf cfafcehbc vbvltdhj,fc&
f) xfvj'dfkt' tktvtynfhekb [ljvbkj,t,b*
,) vbfybzt' tktvtynfhek [ljvbkj,t,c fk,f'j,t,b*
u) bgjdt' itvltu [ljvbkj,f'f fk,f'j,t,b%
A={th'b uth,b vfbyw vjlbc},
Page 19 of 52
B={vjlbc pecnfl th'b uth,b},

C={gbhdtkfl uth,b vjlbc}&
2.9. fujht,ty otcbth rfvf'tkc lf fult,ty otcbth vjytnfc&

f) xfvj'dfkt' tktvtynfhekb [ljvbkj,t,b*
,) vbfybzt' tktvtynfhek [ljvbkj,t,c fk,f'j,t,b*
u) bgjdt' itvltu [ljvbkj,f'f fk,f'j,t,b%
A={rfvf'tkptf 6^ vjytnfpt – uth,b},
B={rfvf'tkptf keob hbw[db^ vjytnfpt – cfafcehb},
C={vjytnfptf cfafcehb}&
2.10. 1000 f[fkij,bkblfy 5214 df;bf& ufycfpqdht' df;bc lf,flt,bc afhlj,b'b cb[ibht&
2.11. gbhdtk 4000 yfnehfkeh hbw[dc ijhbc 551 vfhnbdb hbw[dbf& ufycfpqdht' vfhnbdb
hbw[dbc afhlj,b'b cb[ibht&
2.12. .jdtk 1000 ltnfkib cfiefkjl 4 oeylt,ekbf& lff[kjt,b' hfvltyb oeylt,ekb ltnfkb
bmyt,f 2400 ltnfkib?
2.13. ehyfib 3 't'hb^ 7 ifdb lf 5 ob'tkb ,bh'dbf& hfc elhbc fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv ehyblfy
itv'[dtdb' fvjqt,ekb ,bh'db% f) bmyt,f 't'hb^ ,) fh bmyt,f ifdb
2.14. hfc elhbc fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv cfvb vjytnbc fult,bcfc%

f) v[jkjl th'pt vjdf uth,b^ ,) v[jkjl jhpt vjdf uth,b^ u) cfvbdtpt vjdf uth,b^ l) fhf evtntc
jh vf'ufypt vjdf uth,b&
2.15. hfc elhbc fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv rfvf'kbc ufujht,bcfc vjdf%

f) hbw[db 4* ,) fhfyfrkt, cfvb mekbcf* u) keob hbw[db?
2.16. jhb rfvf'kbc ufujht,bcfc db[bkfd' [ljvbkj,t,c%

A-gbhdtk rfvf'tkpt vjdblf tmdcb mekf*
B- th'-th' rfvf'tkpt vjdblf [e'b mekf*
ufvj'dfkt' A, B, A , AB [ljvbkj,t,bc fk,f'j,t,b&
2.17. hfc elhbc fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv jhb rfvf'kbc ufujht,bcfc% f) vjcek hbw[dt,bc ]fvb [e'c
fh fqtvfnt,f* ,) th'-th'pt vfbyw vjdf [e'b mekf* u) vjcek mekf'f ]fvb 3-bc ]thflbf* l)
vjcek hbw[dt,bc c[dfj,bc vjlekb 2-bc njkbf* t) vjcek hbw[dt,bc yfvhfdkbf 6* d) ]fvib fh
vbbqt,f hbw[db 7&
2.18. rfhnbc lfcnblfy^ hjvtkibw 36 rfhnbf^ itv'[dtdb' bqt,ty th' rfhnc& bgjdt' fk,f'j,f
bvbcf^ hjv tc rfhnb% f) nepbf* ,) ]dhbc dfktnbf* u) uekbc idblbfyb fy uekbc f'bfybf* l) fhw
tmdcbfybf^ fhw ]dfhb&
2.19. th'b mdtvt[blfy chjkbcfc vbpfyib vj[dtlhbc fk,f'j,ff 0^9& [jkj vtjhtlfy chjkbcfc
0^8& hfc elhbc fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv mdtvt[t,blfy 'b'j ufchjkbc itvltu vbpfyb lfpbfyt,ekb
bmyt,f?
2.20. fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv cneltynb cojhfl egfce[t,c cfufvjwlj ,bkt'bc 'tjhbek cfrb'[c^
fhbc 0&8 lf hjv fvj[cybc ghfmnbrek fvjwfyfc – fhbc 0&7& bgjdt' fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv cneltynb
fh xfbzht,f ufvjwlfpt^ 'e ybiybc vbcfqt,fl cfrvfhbcbf 'tjhbek cfrb'[pt gfce[bc ufwtvf fy
ghfmnbrekb fvjwfybc fvj[cyf&
2.21. cfvb vchjktkb th'vfyt'bcfufy lfvjerblt,kfl 'b'j]th tcdhbc th' lf bvfdt cfvbpytc&
gbhdtkb vchjktkbcf'dbc cfvbpytib vj[dtlhbc fk,f'j,ff 0&8^ vtjhbcf'dbc – 0&9^ vtcfvbcf'dbc
– 0&85& ufvj'dfkt' fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv chjkbc itvltu cfvbpyt lfpbfyt,ekb fqvjxylt,f&

Page 20 of 52
2.22. jhb vchjktkb th'vfyt'bcfufy lfvjerblt,kfl jh-jh]th tcdhbc th' lf bvfdt cfvbpytc&
gbhdtkb vchjktkbcf'dbc cfvbpytib vj[dtlhbc fk,f'j,ff 0&8^ vtjhbcf'dbc – 0&9& ufvj'dfkt'
fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv chjkbc itvltu cfvbpyt lfpbfyt,ekb fqvjxylt,f&
2.23. cfvb vchjktkb th'vfyt'bcfufy lfvjerblt,kfl 'b'j]th tcdhbc th' lf bvfdt cfvbpytc&
gbhdtkb vchjktkbcf'dbc cfvbpytib vj[dtlhbc fk,f'j,ff 0&9^ vtjhbcf'dbc – 0&9^ vtcfvbcf'dbc
– 0&6& ufvj'dfkt' fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv% 1) cfvbdt vchjktkb vjf[dtlht,c cfvbpytc* 2) th'b
vchjktkb vfbyw vjf[dtlht,c cfvbpytc* 3) v[jkjl th'b vchjktkb vjf[dtlht,c cfvbpytc&
2.24. fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv gbhdtkb mdtvt[blfy ufchjkbkb zehdb cfvbpytc vj[dlt,f^ fhbc 0&8^
[jkj vtjht mdtvt[blfy ufchjkbcfc –0&6& ufvj'dfkt' bvbc fk,f'j,f^ hjv fv jhb mdtvt[blfy
th'lhjekfl ufchjkbcfc cfvbpytc vj[dlt,f v[jkjl th'b zehdb&
2.25. [bcfufy lfvpflt,ekb re,b^ hjvkbc .dtkf of[yfub itqt,bkbf^ f'fc njk yfobkfl
lf[th[tc& vbqt,ekb gfnfhf re,t,b fehbtc lf itv'[dtdb' fbhxbtc th'b vf'ufyb& hjujhbf
fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv fhxtek re,c jhb of[yfub itqt,bkb fmdc&
2.26. flutyty 'e fhf [ljvbkj,f'f chek cbcntvfc [ljvbkj,f'f itvltub ]ueat,b%
1) wlf- vjytnbc fult,f* [ljvbkj,t,b%
A1- uth,bc vjcdkf*
A2- cfafcehbc vjcdkf&
2) wlf- rfvf'kbc ufujht,f* [ljvbkj,t,b%
A1- keob hbw[dbc vjcdkf vjcdkf*
A2- rtynb hbw[dbc vjcdkf vjcdkf&
3) wlf- rfvf'kbc ufujht,f* * [ljvbkj,t,b%
A1- vjcekb hbw[db [e'c fh fqtvfnt,f*
A2- vjcekb hbw[db cfvpt yfrkt,b fhff&
4) wlf- jhb rfvf'kbc ufujht,f * [ljvbkj,t,b%
A1- jhb rfvf'tkpt th'b lf bubdt hbw[dbc vjcdkf*
A2- rfvf'kt,pt c[dflfc[df hbw[bc vjcdkf&
5) wlf- rfvf'kbc ufujht,f * [ljvbkj,t,b%
A2- cfvbc ]thflb hbw[bc vjcdkf&
6) wlf- jhb vjytnbc fult,f* [ljvbkj,t,b%
A1- jhbdtpt uth,bc vjcdkf*
A2- jhbdtpt cfafcehbc vjcdkf*
7) wlf- cfvbpytc tcdhbfy jh]th* [ljvbkj,t,b%
A1- th'b vj[dtlhf vfbyw*
A2- th'b fwltyf vfbyw*
2.27. cfvij,bfhj cf[kib erfyfcrytk 24 cff'ib j'[b ,fdidb lfb,flf& d'mdf'^ xdty c[df
byajhvfwbf fh ufudfxybf lf v[jkjl f[fkij,bk'f cmtcb udfbynthtct,c&
f) xfvj'dfkt' .dtkf itcfskj tktvtynfhekb [ljvbkj,f lf vbfotht' vf' itcf,fvbcb
fk,f'j,t,b*
,) ufvjcf[t' itvltub [ljvbkj,t,b tktvtynfhek [ljvbkj,f'f cfiefkt,b'%
A={ufxylf jhb df;b lf jhb mfkb},
B={df;t,b fh ufxylf},
C={th'b vfbyw df;bf}&
u) ufvj'dfkt'% P{AB}, P{AC}, P{BC}, P{ C }, P{ AC };
l) ufvj'dfkt' P{A|C}& e'fdct,flbf 'e fhf A lf C [ljvbkj,t,b~ lfvjerblt,tkbf 'e fhf A lf C
[ljvbkj,t,b~
t) ufvj'dfkt' P{B|C}& e'fdct,flbf 'e fhf B lf C [ljvbkj,t,b~ lfvjerblt,tkbf 'e fhf B lf C
[ljvbkj,t,b~
Page 21 of 52
2.28. d'mdf' tmcgthbvtynb j'[b 1, 2, 3, 4 tktvtynfhekb [ljvbkj,b' fqbotht,f^ hjvtk'f
fk,f'j,t,bf 1/3, 1/3, 1/6 lf x* 'e A={1,3}, B={1,4} lf C={2,3},
f) bgjdt' P(A) lf P(B)*
,) bgjdt' P(A|B) lf P(B|C)*
u) bgjdt' P(AB) lf P(AC)*
l) e'fdct,flbf 'e fhf A lf B~ lfvjerblt,tkbf 'e fhf A lf B~
2.29. wlf vlujvfhtj,c jhb vjytnbc fult,fib& ufycfpqdht' lfvjerblt,tkbf 'e fhf A lf B
[ljvbkj,t,b:
f) A={qth,b gbhdtk vjytnfpt}, B={qth,b vtjht vjytnfpt}&
,)A=(th'b cfafcehb vfbyw jhbdt vjytnfpt}^ B={th'b qth,b vfbyw jhbdt vjytnfpt}&
u) A={qth,b gbhdtk vjytnfpt}^ B={th'b qth,b vfbyw jhbdt vjytnfpt}&
2.30. lfcnblfy bqt,ty jh rfhnc^ hjvtk'fufy th'-th'b f'bfybf& hjujhbf fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv
fv jhb rfhnblfy itv'[dtdb' fqt,ekb rfhnb nepb fqvjxylt,f?
2.31. [fhbc[bc cf[tkvobaj bycgtmnjhb fvjovt,c cfcehcf'j vfqfpbfib hsbc ghjlemnt,c&

wyj,bkbf^ hjv hsbc 20 gfrtnblfy jhb fv;fdt,ekbf& bycgtmnjhb itv'[dtdb' bhxtdc ufcfcby]fl 2
gfrtnc 20-lfy& hjujhbf fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv vf' ijhbc%
f) fhwth'b fh bmyt,f fv;fdt,ekb*
,) v[jkjl th'b bmyt,f fv;fdt,ekb*
u) jhbdt fv;fdt,ekb bmyt,f&
2.32. obyf fvjwfybc gbhj,t,ib lfvfnt,b' lfdeidf'^ hjv hsbc 90% obyf lqbcff lf fv;fdt,ekb
hsbc itvwdtkb bc 2 gfrtnbw obyf lqbcff& bycgtmnjhb bhxtdc f[fk cnhfntubfc& vfc cehc ]th
'fhbqb itfvjovjc^ vtht rb 'b'j gfrtnb itfhxbjc hjujhw sdtkb^ bct f[fkb gfrtnt,blfy& hf
fhbc fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv th' gfrtnib vfbyw bmyt,f fv;fdt,ekb hst~
2.33. bgjdt' fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv jhb rfvf'kbc ufujht,bcfc th'-th' vf'ufypt vfbyw vjdf
tmdcbfyb^ 'e wyj,bkbf^ hjv jhbdtpt c[dflfc[df hbw[db vjdblf&
2.34. cneltynvf 25 cfufvjwlj ,bkt'blfy 20 bwbc& ufvjvwltkb vbc'dbc 3 cfrb'[c fhxtdc&

gbhj,b'b fk,f'j,bc wyt,bc ufvj.tyt,b' bgjdt' fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv cneltynvf cfvbdt cfrb'[b
bwbc&
2.35. d'mdf'^ cneltynvf 25 cfufvjwlj ,bkt'blfy v[jkjl 5 ,bkt'b bwbc& hjlbc eahjf
vjcfkjlytkb^ hjv vfc vjvpflt,ekb ,bkt'b it[dlt,f^ gbhdtk yjvhfl 'e vtjht yjvhfl
ufcdkbcfc~
2.36. xf'dkf nfhlt,f itvltub otcb'% lfcvekb th'b cfrb'[bc fhwjlybc itv'[dtdfib cneltync
lfvfnt,b' fsktdty rbltd th' cfrb'[c& hfc elhbc fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv cneltynb xf'dkfc dth
vbbqt,c^ 'e xf'dkbcf'dbc ufyre'dybkb 10 cfrb'[blfy vfy bwbc 7 cfrb'[b~
2.37. cfvb mdtvt[blfy th'j,kbdb ufchjkbcfc jhb zehdb vj[dlf vbpfyc& bgjdt' fk,f'j,f bvbcf^
hjv vtjht mdtvt[blfy ufchjkbkb zehdb vj[dlf vbpfyc^ 'e gbhdtkb^ vtjht lf vtcfvt
mdtvt[bcf'dbc cfvbpytc lfpbfyt,bc fk,f'j,t,bf 0.5, 0.7 lf 0.8.
2.38. bv .e'blfy^ hjvtkibw 3 't'hb lf 2 ifdb ,bh'dbf^ itv'[dtdb' fvjbqtc 2 ,bh'db lf xfltc
vtjht .e'ib^ hjvtkibw 4 't'hb lf 4 ifdb ,bh'db b.j& bgjdt' fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv fvbc itvltu
vtjht .e'blfy itv'[dtdb' fvjqt,ekb ,bh'db 't'hbf&
2.39. .e'blfy^ hjvtkibw 3 't'hb lf 2 ifdb ,bh'dbf^ itv'[dtdb' fvjbqtc 1 ,bh'db lf xfltc vtjht
.e'ib^ hjvtkibw 4 't'hb lf 4 ifdb ,bh'db b.j& fvbc itvltu vtjht .e'blfy itv'[dtdb' bqt,ty

Page 22 of 52
th' ,bh'dc& hfc elhbc fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv gbhdtkb .e'blfy vtjhtib uflfbnfytc 't'hb athbc
,bh'db^ 'e vtjht .e'blfy itv'[dtdb' fvjqt,ekb ,bh'db 't'hbf~
2.40. ljvbyjc 28 cf'fvfij mdblfy itv'[dtdb' bhxtdty 2 mdfc& hfc elhbc fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv
'fvfibc otct,bc itcf,fvbcfl mdt,b vbtlt,f th'vfyt'c?
2.41. yfrt'j,f frvf.jabkt,c cnfylfhnc 0.96 fk,f'j,b'& ufvfhnbdt,ekb rjynhjkbc

ghjwtlehf lflt,b' itltuc bsktdf 0.98 fk,f'j,b' cnfylfhnekb yfrt'j,bcf'dbc^ [jkj 0.05
fk,f'j,b' bct'bdt itltuc fhfcnfylfhnekb yfrt'j,bcf'dbc& bgjdt' fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv
yfrt'j,f^ hjvtkbw fv ghjwtlehfc ofhvfnt,b' ufbdkbc^ cnfylfhnekbf~
2.42. gbhdtk .e'ib 2 't'hb lf 3 ifdb^ vtjhtib 2 't'hb lf 4 ifdb^ [jkj vtcfvtib rb 3 't'hb lf 2
ifdb ,eh'bf& 'fyvbvltdhj,b' fchekt,ty itvltu vjmvtlt,t,c% gbhdtkb .e'blfy itv'[dtdb'
fhxtekb th'b ,eh'b uflffmd' vtjhtib^ vtjhblfy itv'[dtdb' fhxtekb th'b ,eh'b uflffmd'
vtcfvtib^ [jkj vtcfvblfy rdkfd itv'[dtdb' fhxtekb th'b ,eh'b uflffmd' gbhdtkib& hbcb
njkbf fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv gbhdtk .e'ib ,eh't,bc itvflutykj,f fh itbwdkt,f~
6!
2.43. ufvj'dfkt' itvltub afmnjhbfkt,bc hbw[db'b vybidytkj,t,b% f) 5!^ ,) 2!·3!^ u) &
4!2!
2.44. bgjdt' rjv,byfwbf'f hfjltyj,t,b% f) C 32 ^ ,) C 64 ^ u) C 55 &
2.45. ehyfib jhb 't'hb lf cfvb ifdb ,bh'dbf& bqt,ty jh ,bh'dc lf,heyt,bc ufhtit& bgjdt'
fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv%
A={jhbdt ,bh'db 't'hbf},
B={,bh'dt,b c[dflfc[df athbcff},
C={jhbdt ,bh'db ifdbf}&
2.46. fvj[ctyb' obyf fvjwfyf^ 'e gbhdtkb ,bh'db ehyfib erfy ,heylt,f&
2.47. .e'blfy^ hjvtkibw fo.dbf ,fhf't,b fcjt,b' @b"^ @k"^ @j", @g", @c", itv'[dtdb' bqt,ty
,fhf't,c lf fkfut,ty vbvltdhj,b'& hjujhbf fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv itltufl vbbqt,f cbn.df
@cgbkj@~
2.48. .e'blfy^ hjvtkibw fo.dbf ,fhf't,b fcjt,b' @b"^ @v"^ @j", @c", @e", @[" itv'[dtdb' bqt,ty
,fhf't,c lf fkfut,ty vbvltdhj,b'& hjujhbf fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv itltufl vbbqt,f cbn.df
@cj[evb@~
2.49. .e'blfy^ hjvtkibw fo.dbf ,fhf't,b fcjt,b' @f"^ @,", @u", @l", @t", @d", @p", @'"^ @b#,
itv'[dtdb' bqt,ty 3 ,fhf'c lf fkfut,ty vbvltdhj,b'& hjujhbf fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv itltufl
vbbqt,f cbn.df @f'b@~
2.50. bubdt gbhj,f^ hfw obyf fvjwfyfibf^ v[jkjl itbskt,f fvjqt,ekb ,fhf't,bc yt,bcvbthb
uflfyfwdkt,f&
2.51 ehyfib 6 't'hb 8 ifdb ,bh'dbf& hfc elhbc fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv ehyblfy itv'[dtdb'
fvjqt,ekb jhb ,bh'dblfy jhbdt ,bh'db ifdb bmyt,f~
2.52. ehyfib 8 't'hb lf 12 ifdb ,bh'dbf&ehyblfy itv'[dtdb'^ 'fyvbvltdhj,b'^ fvjbqtc jhb

,bh'db& hfc elhbc fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv jhbdt ,bh'db 't'hbf~
2.53. nehbcnb upf'f .jdtk ufcf.fhpt 'fyf,fhb fk,f'j,b' bhxtdc upbc ufuhstkt,fc (jqjyl
erfy fh ,heylt,f)& bgjdt' fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv bub A othnbkblfy vbdf B othnbkib^ 'e upf'f
cmtvf itvltubf

Page 23 of 52
H1 H2 H3
2.54. fvj[ctyb' obyf fvjwfyf^ 'e upf'f cmtvf itvltubf

A
H1 H2
2.55. cfvvf ptbyrfkvf lffvpflf f[fkb ghjlemwbbc th'b lf bubdt hfjltyj,f& fv ghjlemwbbc
vfqfkb [fhbc[bc vbqotdbcf'dbc ufvjb.j ghtvbf 560 kfhb& uffyfobkt' tc ghtvbf ptbyrkt,c
ijhbc^ 'e fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv ptbyrkt,b vfqfkb [fhbc[bc ghjlemwbfc lffvpflt,ty^
itcf,fvbcfl fhbc 0.9, 0.94 lf 0.96&
2.56. cfvb [fhfnb fvpflt,lf th'b lf bubdt lfcf[tkt,bc th'b lf bubdt hfjltyj,bc ltnfkt,c&
lfvpflt,ekb ltnfkt,blfy pjubth'b ltatmnbfyb fqvjxylf^ hbc ufvjw [fhfnt,vf eylf
uflfb[fljy 105 kfhb ]fhbvf& uffyfobkt' ]fhbvf [fhfnt,c ijhbc^ 'e wyj,bkbf^ hjv fv
[fhfnt,bc vbth ltatmnbfyb ltnfkt,bc lfvpflt,bc fk,f'j,t,bf itcf,fvbcfl 0.01, 0.02 lf 0.03&
2.57. cfghbpj ajylbc vjcfut,fl jhb A lf B gbhb 'fvfij,c 'fvfic^ hjvtkbw uhstklt,f 3
vjut,fvlt& th' gfhnbfib A-c vjut,bc fk,f'j,ff p^ [jkj B-c vjut,bcf rb – q = 1–p& d'mdf'
'fvfib ito.lf^ hjltcfw A-c vjut,ekb /mjylf 2^ [jkj B-c rb – 1 gfhnbf& hjujh eylf
ufyfobkltc cfghbpj ajylb~ (vb'b't,f% ufvjb.tyt' A-cf lf B-c vjut,bc fk,f'j,t,b 'fvfibc
ufuhstkt,bc itv'[dtdfib jhb lfvfnt,b'b gfhnbb'* fct'b nbgbc fvjwfyf gbhdtkfl uflfo.dbntc
gfcrfkvf lf athvfv XVII cfereytib)&
2.58. dfikbc gfhnbt,bc [fhbc[bc bycgtmnjhb vbcfqt,fl 'dkbc @welb# gfhnbt,bc v[jkjl 10%-
c lf boeyt,c @rfhub# gfhnbt,bc 5%-c& cfpjufljl^ ufvjupfdybkb gfhnbt,bc 90% @rfhubf#&
f) ufycfpqdht' fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv%
1& vbbqt,f @welb# gfhnbf*
2& lfoeyt,ekbf @rfhub# gfhnbf&
,) ffut' fk,f'j,f'f w[hbkb^ th'b v[hbd @rfhub# lf @welb# gfhnbt,bc^ [jkj vtjht v[hbd
bycgtmnjhbc vbth vbqt,bc fy lfoeyt,bc vb[tldb'&
u) ufycfpqdht' fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv bycgtmnjhb vwlfh uflfo.dtnbkt,fc vbbqt,c itv'[dtdb'
ithxtekb gfhnbbc itvjovt,bcfc&
2.59. obyf fvjwfyfib ffut' ltylhjuhfvf& gbhdtk yf,b]pt b.jc gfhnbbc [fhbc[b^ vtjhtpt –
bycgtmnjhbc mvtlt,f& ufycfpqdht' .jdtkb wfkrtekb ,bkbrbc fk,f'j,f&
2.60. .e'ib 6 't'hb^ 4 ifdb lf 5 ob'tkb ,bh'dbf& bgjdt' fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv .e'blfy 3 ,bh'dbc
hbu-hbuj,b' fvjqt,bcfc udtmyt,f ,bh'dt,bc vbvltdhj,f @ob'tkb^ ifdb^ 't'hb#^ 'e ,bh'dt,bc
fvjqt,f [lt,f% f) lf,heyt,b'* ,) lf,heyt,bc ufhtit&
2.61. ehyfib 4 't'hb lf 3 ifdb ,bh'dbf& ehyblfy hbu-hbuj,b' bqt,ty ,bh'dt,c vfyfv^ cfyfv fh
fvjdf 't'hb ,bh'db& bgjdt' fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv%

Page 24 of 52
f) 't'hb ,bh'db fvjdf gbhdtk yf,b]pt*

,) 't'hb ,bh'db fvjdf vtjht yf,b]pt*
u) 't'hb ,bh'db fvjdf vtcfvt yf,b]pt*
l) 't'hb ,bh'db fvjdf vtj'[t yf,b]pt*
lf[fpt' itcf,fvbcb ltylhjuhfvf& hfc elhbc vbqt,ek fk,f'j,f'f ]fvb~
2.62. hjujh ufvjb'dkblb' fyfkjubeh fk,f'j,t,c^ hjv obyf fvjwfyfib ,bh'dt,b .jdtk
fvjqt,fpt erfy ,heylt,jltc~
2.63. th' ehyfib 10 't'hb lf 2 ifdb ,bh'dbf^ vtjhtib- 4 't'hb lf 8 ifdb& .jdtkb ehyblfy bqt,ty
'b'j ,bh'dc& hjujhbf bvbc fk,f'j,f^ hjv jhbdt fvjqt,ekb ,bh'db ifdbf~
2.64. obyf fvjwfybc gbhj,t,ib ufvj'dfkt' fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv fvjqt,ekb ,bh'dt,blfy th'b
't'hbf^ vtjht-ifdb&
2.65. th' ehyfib 3 't'hb^ 4 ifdb lf 2 ob'tkb ,bh'dbf^ vtjhtib 5 't'hb^ 2 ifdb lf 3 ob'tkb
,bh'db& 'b'jtekb ehyblfy itv'[dtdb' bqt,ty 'b'j ,bh'dc& hjujhbf bvbc fk,f'j,f^ hjv vf'
ijhbc fh bmyt,f ob'tkb ,bh'db~
2.66. ehyfib 8 't'hb lf 2 ifdb ,bh'dbf& hjujhbf fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv ehyblfy th'lhjekfl
fvjqt,ekb cfvbdt ,bh'db 't'hb bmyt,f~
2.67. ehyfib 12 't'hb^ 4 ifdb^ 8 ob'tkb lf 1 vodfyt ,bh'dbf& hjujhbf bvbc fk,f'j,f^ hjv ehyblfy
vbvltdhj,b' fvjqt,ekb cfvb ,bh'dblfy gbhdtkb ifdb bmyt,f^ vtjht-'t'hb^ vtcfvt-ob'tkb~
2.68. th' ehyfib 5 't'hb lf 15 ifdb ,bh'dbf^ vtjhtib 3 't'hb lf 2 ifdb ,bh'db& gbhdtkb ehyblfy
vtjhtib uflffmd' th'b ,bh'db& ,bh'dt,bc fhtdbc itmltu vtjht ehyblfy gbhdtkib itv'[dtdb'
f,heyt,ty th' ,bh'dc& hjujhbf bvbc fk,f'j,f^ hjv fvbc itvltu gbhdtkb ehyblfy fvjqt,ekb
,bh'db 't'hb bmyt,f~
2.69. th' ehyfib 3 't'hb lf 5 ob'tkbfdb ,bh'dbf^ vtjhtib- 2 't'hb lf 3 ob'tkb& hjujhbf
fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv itv'[dtdb' ithxtekb .e'blfy fvjqt,ekb ,bh'db 't'hb bmyt,f~

Page 25 of 52
"FDB II. LBCRHTNEKB ITV"{DTDB"B CBLBLTT<B
wdkfl cblbltc^ hjvkbc vybidytkj,t,b lfvjrblt,ekbf itv'[dtdb'b tmcgthbvtynbc fy

vjdktybc itltupt^ tojlt,f itv'[dtdb'b cblblt& itv'[dtdb' cblblt'f vfufkb't,c
ofhvjflutyty% hfbvt abpbrehb cblblbc ufpjvdbc itltut,b^ vjytnbc hjvtkbvt v[hbc^ d'mdf'^
uth,bc ufvjxtyf'f hfjltyj,f vjytnbc ufyvtjht,b'b fult,bcfc^ c[dflfc[df lqtc ufhrdtek
cfmjytkpt vj'[jdyf'f hfjltyj,f vfqfpbfib^ ,hjeybc yfobkfrbc vlujvfhtj,f^ hjvtkcfw
dfrdbhlt,b' vbrhjcrjgib lhjbc c[dflfc[df vjvtynib lf c[df&
itv'[dtdb' cblbltc tojlt,f lbcrhtnekb^ 'e vbcb vybidytkj,f'f cbvhfdkt cfchekb
fy 'dkflbf (fye ecfchekjf^ vfuhfv itcfskt,tkbf vybidytkj,f'f uflfyjvhdf)&
lbcrhtnekbc ufhlf xdty ufydb[bkfd' bct' itv'[dtdb' cblbltt,cfw^ hjvtk'f itcfskj
vybidytkj,f'f cbvhfdkt fdct,c v'tk ohatc^ yf[tdfhohatc fy hfbvt cfchek bynthdfkc& fct'
itv'[dtdb' cblbltt,c eo.dtn itv'[dtdb' cblbltt,c eojlt,ty&
itvlujvib itv'[dtdb' cblbltt,c xdty fqdybiyfd' lblb kf'byehb fcjt,b'^ vfufkb'fl
X, Y, Z, [jkj itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc itcfskj hbw[db' vybidytkj,t,c itcf,fvbcb gfnfhf
fcjt,b'&
§ 1. LBCRHTNEKB ITV"{DTDB"B CBLBLBC UFYFOBKT<BC RFYJYB&
vjdb.dfyj' lbcrhtnekb itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,bc vfufkb't,b&

vfufkb'b 3.1. (2.1. vfufkb'bc ufuhstkt,f)
tmcgthbvtynb - vjytnbc fult,f^
tktvtynfhek [ljvbkj,f'f cbdhwtf  = {u, c}.
itv'[dtdb'b cblblt - uth,bc ufvjxtybc hfjltyj,f vjytnbc th']thflb fult,bcfc&
fv itv'[dtdfib X itv'[dtdb'b cblblt qt,ekj,c jh^ yekbc lf th'bc njk
vybidytkj,t,c& tmcgthbvtynbc xfnfht,fvlt iteskt,tkbf tmcgthbvtynbc itltubc wfkcf[fl
ufycfpqdhf&
tmcgthbvtynb - fult,ty jh c[dflfc[df vjytnfc&
tktvtynfhek [ljvbkj,f'f cbdhwtf  = {uu, uc, cu, cc}.
itv'[dtdb'b cblblt - uth,bc ufvjxtybc hfjltyj,f vjytnbc jh fult,bcfc&
fv itv'[dtdfib (uu) tktvtynfhek [ljvbkj,fc ittcf,fvt,f [ljvbkj,f "X itv'[dtdb'b
cblblt qt,ekj,c X=2-bc njk vybidytkj,fc" ^ [ljvbkj,fc (uc^ cu) -[ljvbk,f {X=1}^ [jkj
tktvtynfhek [ljvbkj,fc (cc) -[ljvbkj,f {X=0}. fvhbufl X itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc itcfskj
vybidytkj,f'f cbvhfdktf 0,1,2.
tmcgthbvtynb - fujht,ty jh ufhxtdfl rfvf'tkc^ fy jh]th fujht,ty th' rfvf'tkc& fv
itv'[dtdfib
 ={ (1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6)
(2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6)
(3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6)
(4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6)
(5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6)
(6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6) }.
fv itv'[dtdfib itv'[dtdb'b cblblt itbskt,f ufydcfpqdhjl vhfdfkyfbhfl& vfufkb'fl^ X lf Y
itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,b ufydcfpqdhjl itvltuyfbhfl
X - ''rfvf'kt,pt vjcek hbw[d'f ]fvb",
Y - ''rfvf'kt,pt vjcek hbw[d'f c[dfj,bc vjlekb".
vbe'b't' fv cblblt'f .dtkf itcfskj hbw[db'b vybidytkj,t,b&
ptvj' vj.dfybkb vfufkb't,bc cfaesdtkpt itudbskbf lfdfcrdyf'^ hjv lbcrhtnekb
itv'[dtdb'b cblblt fhbc -pt ufycfpqdhekb aeymwbf* fv itv'[dtdb' cblblt'f vybidytkj,f'f
cbvhfdkt cfchekbf& bc hjv itv'[dtdb'b cblblt vbbqt,c fvf 'e bv hbw[db' vybidytkj,fc
lfvjrblt,ekbf itv'[dtdb'b tmcgthbvtynbc itltupt&

Page 26 of 52
lbcrhtnekb itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyb ofhvjflutyc 'fyflj,fc

itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc itcfskj vybidytkj,t,cf lf itcf,fvbc fk,f'j,t,c ijhbc& d'mdf'^
vjwtvekbf itvltub cf[bc w[hbkb
x1 x2 ... xr
X- (3.1)
p1 p2 ... pr
cflfw gbhdtk cnhbmjyib xfvj'dkbkbf X cblblbc .dtkf itcfskj vybidytkj,f x1,x2,...,xr^ [jkj
vtjhtib – fv cblblbc vbth .jdtkb itcfskj xk vybidytkj,bc vbqt,bc fk,f'j,t,b
pk=P{X=xk}, pk>0, k=1,2,..,r, lf p1+p2++pr=1&
(3.1) cf[bc w[hbkc lbcrhtnekb nbgbc itv'[ddb'b cblblbc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyc fy e,hfkjl
ufyfobkt,fc eojlt,ty& (3.1)-ib buekbc[vt,f^ hjv x1<x2<<xr&
fyfkjubehfl ufybcfpqdht,f bct'b itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjybw^ hjvkbc
itcfskj vybidytkj,f'f cbvhfdkt 'dkflbf%
x1 x2 &&& xr &&&
X- &&& &&& (3.2)
p1 p2 pr
cflfw pk=P{X=xk}>0, k=1,2,...,r,... lf p1+p2++pr+=1; xi  xk, 'e ik. eahj vtnbw^ xdtyb
ufy[bkdbc afhukt,ib cfdct,b' cfrvfhbcbf dbuekbc[vj'^ hjv (3.2) ib x1<x2<<xr< &
itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjybc wjlyf cfiefkt,fc udfsktdc dbgjdj'
itv'[dtdb' cblbltc'fy lfrfdibht,ekb yt,bcvbthb [ljvbkj,bc fk,f'j,f& vfufkb'fl^ hflufy
[ljvbkj,f {a<Xb}= { X = x k } lf {X = xk}, k=1,2,..., [ljvbkj,t,b o.dbk-o.dbkfl
a  x k b
e'fdct,flbf^ udtmyt,f
P{a < X  b}=  P ( X = xk ) =
a  xk  b
 pk
k : a  xk  b
, (3.3)
cflfw –  a  b  +.
[ibhfl vj[th[t,ekbf ufyfobkt,bc rfyjybc uhfabrekb ofhvjlutyf* fvbcf'dbc
itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc itcfskj vybidytkj,t,c uflfpjvfdty f,cwbcf'f qthspt lf fv othnbkt,ib
fqvfh'fdty itcf,fvbcb fk,f'j,t,bc njkb cbuhsbc vfh'j,t,c%
p
pn-1
pn
p2
p3
p1
x1 x2 0 x3 xn-1 xn x
yf[& 3.1.
vfufkb'b 3.4. X lbcrhtnekb itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjybf

–1 0 1 2 3
X (3.4)
0.1 0.15 0.3 0.25 0.2
dbgjdj' fk,f'j,f^ bvbcf hjv% 1) X  0; 2) X < 3; 3) 0 < X  3.
fvj[cyf& (3.3)-bcf lf (3.4)-bc 'fyf[vfl
P{X0}=P{X=–1}+P{X=0}=0.1+0.15=0.25;
P{X<3}=P{X2}=P{X=–1}+P{X=0}+P{X=1}+P{X=2}=1–P{X=3}= 0.8;
P{0<X2}=P{X=1}+P{X=2}=P{X2}–P{X0}=0.55.
fvhbufl^ cfvbdt itv'[dtdfib^ cfsbt,tk [ljvbkj,f'f fk,f'j,t,bc ufvj'dkf [lt,f
{X  x} cf[bc [ljvbkj,f'f fk,f'j,t,bc vtidtj,b'& itdybiyj'^ hjv tc afmnb cfvfh'kbfybf fhf
v[jkjl fv rjyrhtnekb vfufkb'bcf'dbc^ fhfvtl pjuflflfw& 

Page 27 of 52
§ 2. LBCRHTNEKB ITV"{DTDB"B CBLBLBC VF"TVFNBREHB KJLBYB

(CFIEFKJ VYBIDYTKJ<F)^ VJLF
itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc hbw[db' vf[fcbf't,kt,c ijhbc^ egbhdtktc .jdkbcf^ eylf

ufydcfpqdhj' bct't,b^ hjvtk'f "ufhitvjw" ]uealt,f itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc itcfskj
vybidytkj,fyb& th'-th' fct' hbw[db' vf[fcbf't,tkc ofhvjflutyc itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc
vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbyb^ hjvtkcfw vbcb fhcblfy ufvjvlbyfht cfiefkj vybidytkj,fcfw
eojlt,ty&
ufydb[bkj' lbcrhtnekb itv'[dtdb'b cblblt^ hjvkbc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjybf (3.1)&
itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbyb fye vbcb cfiefkj vybidytkj,f (fqbybiyt,f EX-b'^ E
fhbc gbhdtkb fcj byukbcehb cbn.dbcf Expectation – kjlbyb^ vjcfkjlytkj,f) tojlt,f
itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc .dtkf itcfskj vybidytkj,t,bc itcf,fvbc fk,f'j,t,pt yfvhfdk'f ]fvc^
fye hbw[dc
r
EX = x p
i =1
i i = x1p1 + x2p2 ++ xr pr (3.5)
vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbybc ibyffhcb itvltuib vujvfhtj,c% itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc
vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbyb lff[kjt,b' njkbf fv itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc lfrdbhdt,ek
vybidytkj,t,bc fhb'vtnbrekb cfiefkjcb&
w[flbf^ hjv fewbkt,tkb fh fhbc itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbyb njkb
b.jc vbcb hjvtkbvt itcfskj vybidytkj,bcf&
'e ufdb[ctyt,' fhb'vtnbrekb cfiefkjc abpbreh bynthghtnfwbfc gbhdtkb 'fdblfy lf
ofhvjdbluty'^ hjv pi (p1=0.1, p2=0.15, p3=0.3, p4=0.25, p5=0.2) vfct,b vj'fdct,ekbf ox qthsbc xi
(x1= –1, x2=0, x3=1, x4=2, x5=3) othnbkt,ib lf 'fdfl ox qthsc vfcf fhf fmdc^ vfiby fv qthsbc
fhwth' othnbkc fhf fmdc lflt,b'b vfcf ufhlf x1, x2,...,x5 othnbkt,bcf lf EX fhbc bv cf.hltyb
othnbkbc f,cwbcf^ hjvkbc vbvfh' qthsb othnbkjdfyb vfct,b' ojyfcojhj,fib bmyt,jlf (b[&
yf[& 3.2 )&
othnbkjdfyb vfct,bc (3.1) cf[bc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjybcf'dbc (th'tekjdfyb ]fvehb
vfcb') tc afmnb fct ufvjb'mvbc%
r
 (x
i =1
i − EX ) pi = 0
(itflfht (3.5) 'fyfafhlj,fc)&

xi –1 0 1 1.3 2 3
pi 0.1 0.15 0.3 0.25 0.2
EX
yf[& 3.2
bv itv'[dtdfib^ hjltcfw ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyc fmdc (3.2) cf[t


EX = x p ,
i =0
i i

'e wyj,bkbf^ hjv x i =1
i pi   &
lfvnrbwt,bc ufhtit vjud.fdc vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbybc sbhb'flb 'dbct,t,b^ hjvkt,bw
eiefkjl vjovlt,f lbcrhtnekb itv'[dtdb'b cblblbcf'dbc&
1. Ec=c^ fye velvbdbc vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbyb fv velvbdbc njkbf&

2. EcX=cEX, fye velvbdb uflbc vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbybc ybiybc ufht'*
3. E(c1X1+c2X2)=c1EX1+c2EX2^ fye ohabdb rjv,byfwbbc vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbyb kjlbyt,bc ohabdb
rjv,byfwbbc njkbf*
4. 'e X lf Y itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,b lfvjerblt,tkbf^ vfiby EXY=EXEY.
vfufkb'b 3.5. ufvjd'dfkj' 3.4 vfufkb'ib vjwtvekb itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc vf'tvf-

nbrehb kjlbyb&

Page 28 of 52
fvj[cyf& ufvj'dkt,bc itcfchekt,kfl vjyfwtvt,b ofhvjdblubyj' 3.1. w[hbkbc cf[b'^

hbc itvltu itcfchekt,tkb ufvj'dkt,b rjvtynfhc fh cfzbhjt,c&
w[hbkb 3.1.
i xi pi xi pI
1 –1 0.10 – 0,1
2 0 0.15 0
3 1 0.30 0,3
4 2 0.25 0,5
5 3 0.20 0,6
5
EX = x p
i =1
i i =1.3
ufydcfpqdhj' ufyfobkt,bc vjlf lbcrhtnekb nbgbc ufyfobkt,t,bcf'dbc& lbcrhtnekb

nbgbc ufyfobkt,t,bc vjlf tojlt,f itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc bv vybidytkj,fc^ hjvkbc
uf[jhwbtkt,bc fk,f'j,f elbltcbf&
vfufkb'b' 3.1-b' ufycfpqdhekb ufyfobkt,bc vjlf 1-bc njkbf&
§ 3*. ITV"{DTDB"B CBLBLBC AEYMWBBC VF"TVFNBREHB KJLBYB
[ibhfl vjwtvekbf hfbvt X itv'[dtdb'b cblblt wyj,bkb ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyb' lf udfby-

nthtct,c Y=h(X) itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbybc ufvj'dkf^ cflfw h(x) yfvldbkb x
wdkflbc hfbvt aeymwbff&
ufdfhxbj' itcf,fvbcb vfufkb'b&
vfufkbbb 3.6. d'mdf'^ h(x)=x3–4x lf X itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjybf

–2 –1 0 2
X
0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2
hbcb njkbf Y=X3-4X itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbyb~
fvj[cyf& lfdfkt,bc itcfchekt,kfl ]th itbskt,f lfdflubyj' Y itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc
ufyfobkt,f lf itvltu ufvjd'dfkj' vbcb vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbyb&
f) lfdflubyj' Y = h(X) itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyb*
w[flbf^ hjv h(–2)=h(0)=h(2)=0 lf h(–1)=(–1)3–4(–1)=3& fvbnjv Y itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc itcfskj
vybidytkj,t,bf 0 lf 3& lfdflubyj' ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyb& fvbcf'dbc ufvjd'dfkj' fk,f'j,t,b%
P{Y=0} lf P{Y=3}& hflufy {X=–2}, {X=0} lf {X=2} [ljvbkj,t,b e'fdct,flbf^ fk,f'j,f'f
itrht,bc otcbc 'fyf[vfl udtmyt,f%
P{Y=0}=P{{X=–2}{X=0}{X=2}}=P{X=–2}+P{X=0}+P{X=2}=0.1+0.4+0.2=0.7
lf P{Y=3}=P{X=–1}=0.3& fvbnjv cf,jkjjl^ Y=h(X) itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyc
tmyt,f itvltub cf[t%
0 3
Y
0.7 0.3
hjvkbc'dbcfw EY=0,9.
eahj vfhnbdbf Y=h(X) itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbyb ufvjb'dfkjc X-bc
ufyfobkt,bc nthvbyt,ib&
,) ufvjd'dfkj' Y=h(X) itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbyb&itvltub ajhvekb'%
Eh( X ) = 
h( xi ) P{ X = xi } &
i
(3.6)
(3.6)-bc cfaesdtkpt udfmdc

EY=h(–2)0,1+h(–1)0,3+h(0)0,4+h(2)0,2=00,1+30,3+00,4+00,2=0,9& 

Page 29 of 52
§ 4. LBCGTHCBF^ CFIEFKJ RDFLHFNEKB UFLF{HF
lfdbo.j' vfufkb'bc ufy[bkdb'& ufydb[bkj' jhb lbcrhtnekb itv'[dtdb'b cblblt

ufyfobkt,bc itvltub rfyjyt,b':
–3 1 –90 45
X1 X2
1/4 3/4 1/3 2/3
ufy[bkek vfufkb'ib jhbdt itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbyb 0-bc njkbf&

vfh'kfw^ EX1=(–3)1/4+13/4=0, EX2=(–90)1/3+452/3=0^ vfuhfv fv itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,bc
ufyfobkt,fyb ufyc[dflt,f bvb'^ hjv X1-bc itcfskj vybidytkj,t,b ufwbkt,b' f[kjcff
vf'tvfnbreh kjlby'fy (yek'fy)^ dblht X2 itv'[dtdb'b cblblbcf&
itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc vybidytkj,t,bc vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbybc vbvfh' ufafynekj,bc
th'-th' vybidytkjdfy cfpjvc ofhvjflutyc itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc lbcgthcbf&
X itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc lbcgthcbf (fqbybiyt,f DX-b'^ D fhbc gbhdtkb fcj byukbcehb
cbn.dbcf – Dispersion) tojlt,f (X–EX)2 itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc vf'tvfnbreh kjlbyc
DX = E(X–EX)2 & (3.7)
vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbybc 'dbct,t,bc ufvj.tyt,b' vbdbqt,'^ hjv
DX = E(X–EX)2 = E(X2–2X EX+(EX) 2) = EX2–2 EXEX+(EX)2 = EX2–(EX)2^ (3.8)
2
cflfw^ EX -c tojlt,f X itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc vtjht hbubc vjvtynb lf
EX 2 =  x k2 p k .
k
vfufkb'b 3.7. ufvjd'dfkj' 3.1 vfufkb'ib vjwtvekb itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc lbcgthcbf&
fvj[cyf& lbcgthcbf vfhnbdfl ufvjb'dkt,f^ 'e ufvjdb.tyt,' itvltub cf[bc xfyfothc
w[hbkb 3.2.
i xi pi xipi x i2 x i2 p i
1 –1 0.10 –0.1 1 0,1
2 0 0.15 0 0 0
3 1 0.30 0.3 1 0,3
4 2 0.25 0.5 4 1
5 3 0.20 0.6 9 1,8
5 5
EX= 
i =1
xi pi =1.3 EX 2 = x
i =1
2
i pi = 3.2
DX=EX2–(EX)2=1,51
vjdb.dfyj' lbcgthcbbc 'dbct,t,b:

1) 'e c velvbdbf^ vfiby Dc=0&
2) D(aX+b)=a2DX^ t&b& itv'[dtdb' cblbltpt velvbdbc lfvfnt,f vbc lbcgthcbfc fh wdkbc^ [jkj
velvbdb vfvhfdkb rdflhfnekb [fhbc[b' uflbc lbcgthcbbc ybiybc ufht'&
3) 'e X lf Y itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,b lfvjerblt,tkbf^ vfiby D(XY) =DX+DY&
X itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc cfiefkj rdflhfnekb uflf[hf (fqbybiyt,f X-b') tojlt,f fv

itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc lbcgthcbblfy fhb'vtnbrek rdflhfnek atcdc:
X = + DX . (3.9)
X-c [ibhfl cnfylfhnek uflf[hfcfw eojlt,ty& uflf[hbc fv vf[fcbf't,kbc itvjqt,f
bvb'ff vjnbdbht,ekb^ hjv bubdt pjvbc th'tekt,ib ufvjbcf[t,f^ hfw X itv'[dtdb'b cblblt&
f[kf ufydb[bkj' itvltub
vfufkb'b 3.8. lfdeidf' X itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjybf
–2 0 4 5 6
X
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.25 0.15
uftwb' gfce[b itvltu rb'[dt,c%
Page 30 of 52
f) hjujhb bmyt,f Y=X+5 itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyb~ hjujh itbwdkt,f

itcf,fvbcb ufyfobkt,bc rfyjybc uhfabrekb ofhvjlutyf~ hbcb njkb bmyt,f EY, DY?
,) hjujhb bmyt,f Z=X/2 itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyb~ hjujh itbwdkt,f itcf,fvbcb
ufyfobkt,bc rfyjybc uhfabrekb ofhvjlutyf~ hbcb njkb bmyt,f EZ, DZ? 
d'mdf'^ X itv'[dtdb' cblblbc vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbybf EX^ [jkj cfiefkj rdflhfnekb
uflf[hf X& ufydb[bkj' itv'[dtdb' cblblt
X − EX
Y= (3.10)
X
lf ufvjd'dfkj' vbcb vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbyb lf lbcgthcbf& vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbybcf lf
lbcgthcbbc 'dbct,t,blfy ufvjvlbyfht vbdbqt,'^ hjv EY=0, DY=1. vfh'kfw
 X − EX  1
EY=E   = (EX–EX)=0
 X  X
lf
 X − EX 
DY=D   =(1/DX)D(X–EX)=1.
 X 
(3.10) ufhlfmvyfc /mdbf X itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc wtynhbht,f (vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbybc ufvjrkt,f)
lf yjhvbht,f (X-pt uf.jaf) fy eahj vjrktl itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc cnfylfhnbpfwbf&
dbn.db'^ hjv X itv'[dtdb' cblbltc uffxybf v'tkb lflt,b'b k hbubc cfchekb cfo.bcb
vjvtynb EXk, 'e E|X|k<. ufybvfhnt,f fuht'dt X itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc k hbubc wtynhfkehb
vjvtynb
E(X–EX)k.
lbcgthcbf DX=E(X-EX) vtjht hbubc wtynhfkehb vjvtynbf& 
2
vfufkb'b 3.9. fhct,j,c cfvb vt'jlb ghjlemwbbc gfhnbbc rjynhjkbc itcfvjovt,kfl&

.jdtkb vt'jlbc ufvj.tyt,bcfc hfjltyj,f bv fhfcnfylfhnekb ltnfkt,bcf^ hjvkt,bw
rjynhjkbc itvltu xfb'dkt,f cnfylfhnekfl^ fhbc itv'[dtdb'b cblblt itvltub itcf,fvbcb
ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyb'
0 1 3 4 0 1 2 3
X 0,5 0,4 0,05 0,05 Y 0,7 0,1 0,1 0,1
0 1 2 3 4
Z 0,8 0,05 0,05 0,05 0,05
cfzbhjf fdbhxbj' ghjlemwbbc rjynhjkbc bc vt'jlb^ hjvtkbw ufycfpqdhfdc fhfcnfylfh-

nekb ltnfkt,bc vbybvevc gfhnbfib&
fvj[cyf& ufvjd'dfkj' rjynhjkbc 'b'jtekb vt'jlbc lfvf[fcbf't,tkb itv'[dtdb'b
cblblbc vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbyb& vbdbqt,'
EX=0,65, EY=0,6, EZ=0,5
ghjlemwbbc rjynhjkbc itcfvjovt,kfl fdbhxbj' vtcfvt vt'jlb^ dbyfblfy bc [fcbf'lt,f
fhfcnfylfhnekb ltnfkt,bc vbybvfkehb hfjltyj,b' itvjovt,ek gfhnbfib& 
vfufkb'b 3.10. fk,f'ehb ghjuyjpb fmwbbc rehcbc ghjwtynekb wdkbkt,bcf 6 'dbc
ufyvfdkj,fib vjwtvekbf itvltub ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyb'
5 10 15 20 25 30
X%
0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1
bgjdt' fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv fmwbf'f .bldf eahj vjvut,bfybf^ dblht 'fy[bc cf,fyrj
ltgjpbnpt itnfyf 6 'dbc dflb' 'dtib 3%-bc vfhnbdb cfhut,kb'&
fvj[cyf& 'fy[bc yfphlb cf,fyrj ltgjpbnpt^ 'dtib 3% bc cfhut,kb'^ 6 'dbc itvltu fhbc
[6ּ0.03]100%=18%. fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv fmwbf'f .bldf eahj vjvut,bfybf^ dblht 'fy[bc cf,fyrj
ltgjpbnpt itnfyf^ ufybcfpqdht,f bv fk,f'j,f'f ]fvb'^ hjvkt,bw udfsktdty fmwbf'f rehcbc
eahj vfqfk phlfc&
Page 31 of 52
P(X>18)=0.3+0.2+0.1=0.6 
vfufkb'b 3.11. fdnjcfkjybc .jdtklqbehb [fh]t,b vjvcf[eht,fpt lf htrkfvfpt
itflutyc 120 kfhc& .jdtk'dbehfl uf.blekb fdnjvfymfyt,bc hfjltyj,f X tvjhxbkt,f itvltu
ufyfobkt,fc
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
X
0.25 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.05 0.05 0.025 0.025
f) bgjdt' fdnjcfkjybc cfiefkj .jdtk'dbehb itvjcfdfkb^ 'e fdnjvfymfybc afcbf 8000
kfhb
,) bgjdt' .jdtk'dbehfl uf.blekb vfymfyt,bc cfiefkj rdflhfnekb uflf[hf
fvj[cyf& f) .jdtk'dbehb itvjcfdfkb Y ufvjb'dkt,f ajhvekb'
Y =(8000۰X-30۰120)
lf
EY =E(8000۰X-30۰120)= 8000۰EX-30۰120=8000۰2.675-3600=17800
,) cfiefkj rdflhfnekb uflf[hf=2.51 
§ 5. SBHB"FLB LBCRHTNEKB UFYFOBKT<FYB
§ 5.1. <THYEKBC UFYFOBKT<F
[ibhfl wlbc (tmcgthbvtynbc) itltufl abmcbhlt,f v[jkjl^ hfbvt [ljvbkj,bc

(@ofhvfnt,bc#) fy vbcb cfobyffqvltuj [ljvbkj,bc (@vfhw[bc#) vj[ltyf& vfufkb'fl^ hfbvt
jgthfwbbc itltufl abhvf vbbqt,c vjut,fc fy fhf* f[fkij,bkb bmyt,f ,bzb fy bmyt,f ujuj lf f&i&
.dtkf fct'b tmcgthbvtync fk,f'j,bc 'tjhbfib fqothty itv'[dtdb'b cblblb'^ hjvtkbw
@ofhvfnt,bc# itv'[dtdfib 1-bf^ [jkj @vfhw[bc# itv'[dtdfib 0& fvfdt lhjc ofhvfnt,fc vbfothty
p fk,f'j,fc, [jkj vfhw[c – (1–p) fk,f'j,fc^ fct' X itv'[dtdb' cblbltc ,thyekbc
itv'[dtdb' cblbltc eojlt,ty& vbcb ufyfobkt,bc rfyjybf%
0 1
X (3.11)
1–p p
(3.11)-b' ufycfpqdhek itv'[dtdb' cblbltc ,thyekbc itv'[dtdb'b cblblt tojlt,f^
[jkj (3.11) ufyfobkt,fc – ,thyekbc ufyfobkt,f p gfhfvtnhb'&
&
,thyekbc ufyfobkt,f
X ,thyekbc itv'[dtdb'b cblbltf ofhvfnt,bc p fk,f'j,b'^ 'e
P{X=1}=p, P{X=0}=1–p.
EX=p, DX = p(1–p), X= p(1 − p)
§ 5.2. <THYEKBC WLF"F CMTVF& <BYJVEHB UFYFOBKT<F
d'mdf'^ dfnfht,' ufyvtjht,b' lfvjerblt,tk wlt,c lf 'b'jtekb wlbc itltubf 1

("ofhvfnt,f"), fy 0 ("vfhw[b"). xdty ufydb[bkfd' wlf'f bct' vbvltdhj,fc^ hjltcfw ofhvfnt,f'f
fk,f'j,f wlblfy wlfvlt ewdktkbf lf p-c njkbf^ fye .jdtkb wlbc itltub fqbotht,f
,thyekbc itv'[dtdb'b cblblb'& lfvjerblt,tk wlf'f fct' vbvltdhj,fc ,thyekbc wlf'f
cmtvfc eojlt,ty&

Page 32 of 52
d'mdf' dfnfht,' n wlfc& vfiby w[flbf^ hjv tmcgthbvtynbc .dtkf itcfskj itltub
fqbotht,f 1-t,bcf lf 0-t,bc .dtkfyfbhb vbvltdhj,b'&
ufydb[bkj' f[kf fct'b itv'[dtdb'b cblblt%
n
Sn= X1+ X2++Xn =  X i , (3.12)
i =1
hflufy X1,X2,...,Xn itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,b qt,ekj,ty v[jkjl jh vybidytkj,fc^ yekcf
lf th'c^ vf'b ]fvb njkb bmyt,f th'bfyt,bc hfjltyj,bcf X1,X2,...,Xn itv'[dtdb' itcfrht,t,c
ijhbc^ fye Sn njkb bmyt,f ofhvfnt,f'f hfjltyj,bcf n wlfib& fvbnjv Sn-bc itcfskj
vybidytkj,f'f cbvhfdktf {0,1,2,...,n}. bvbc lfcflutyfl^ 'e hbcb njkbf {Sn=k}, k=0,1,2,...,n
[ljvbkj,bc fk,f'j,f^ pjuflb itv'[dtdbc ufy[bkdfvlt ufydb[bkj'itvltub vfufkb'b&
d'mdf' n=4, [jkj ofhvfnt,f'f fk,f'j,f p-c njkbf& hflufy n=4, .dtkf itcfskj
itltu'f cbvhfdkt itlut,f 24=16 tktvtynfhekb [ljvbkj,bcfufy& itvjdbqj' itvltub
fqybidyf%& lfdeidf' itvjrkt,ekb xfyfothb 0000 fqybiyfdc itvltu tktvtynfhek [ljvbkj,fc
{X1=0, X2=0, X3=0, X4=0}, [jkj P(0000) – vbc fk,f'j,fc& f[kf lfdeidf'^ hjv k=2. vfiby
[ljvbkj,f {S4=2} itlut,f itvltub tktvtynfhekb [ljvbkj,t,bcfufy {S4=2}={0011, 0101,
1001, 0110, 1010, 1100} (itfvjovt')& X1,X2,X3,Xn itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,bc lfvjerblt,kj,bc ufvj
P(0011)=P(0)P(0)P(1)P(1)=p2(1-p)2
{S4=2}[ljvbkj,fib itvfdfk tktvtynfhek [ljvbkj,t,c @ofhvfnt,f'f" lf @vfhw['f" th'b lf
bubdt hfjltyj,f uffxybf'& ]ea't,bc ufycfpqdht,bc 'fyf[vfl^ vf'b hfjltyj,f C 42 -bc njkbf&
fvhbufl^ {S4=2} [ljvbkj,bc fk,f'j,f ufvjb'dkt,f ajhvekb'%
P4{S4 = 2} = C 42 p2 (1–p)2 .
cfpjufljl^ Sn ofhvjflutyc lbcrhtnekb nbgbc itv'[dtdb' cblbltc^ hjvkbc itcfskj
vybidytkj,t,bf 0, 1, 2, ... , n lf {Sn=k} [ljvbkj,bc fk,f'j,f ufvjb'dkt,f ajhvekb'%
Pn(k, p)  Pn{Sn = k} = C nk pk (1–p)n-k , k = 0,1,...,n, (3.13)
cflfw
n!
C nk = . (3.14)
k!(n − k )!
(3.14)-b' ufyvfhnt,ek hbw[dt,c ,byjveh rjtabwbtynt,c eojlt,ty& fvltyfl^ ,eyt,hbdbf^ Sn
itv'[dtdb' cblbltc ,byjvehfl ufyfobkt,ekb itv'[dtdb'b cblblt^ [jkj fk,f'j,f'f (3.13)
ufyfobkt,fc rb – ,byjvehb ufyfobkt,f deojlj'& fvhbufl^ ,byjvehfl ufyfobkt,ekb Sn
itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjybf%
0 1 2 … k … n
Sn n-2
(1–p) np(1–p)n-1
n 1
2
2
n(n–1)p (1–p) … C n p (1–p) … pn
k k n-k
vfufkb'b 3.12. .e'ib 3 't'hb lf 5 ifdb ,eh'bf. .e'blfy itv'[dtdb'^ lf,heyt,b' bqt,ty
4 ,eh'c. bgjdt' fk,f'j,f bvbcf, hjv fvjqt,ekb ,eh't,blfy 't'hb ,eh't,bc hfjltyj,f vtnb
bmyt,f ifdb ,eh't,bc hfjltyj,fpt&
fvj[cyf& fvjwfybc gbhj,bc 'fyf[vfl^ th' wlfib ofhvfnt,bc fk,f'j,ff p=3/8. cfsbt,tkb
[ljvbkj,bc [tkitvo.j, e'fdct,fl itv'[dtdt,c ofhvjflutyc j'[ wlfib cfvb fy j'[b 't'hb
,eh'bc fvjqt,f^ hjvtk'f fk,f'j,t,b (3.13) ajhvekbc vb[tldb' itcf,fvbcfl njkbf%
P{S4=3}= C 43 (3/8)3(1–3/8)4-3=135/1024 lf P{S4=4}=(3/8)4=81/4096.

fvbnjv cfsbt,tkb fk,f'j,ff
P{S4=3}+P{S4=4}=135/1024+81/4096=621/4096. 
itdybiyj'^ hjv ,byjvehb rjtabwbtynt,bcf'dbc cfvfh'kbfybf
C nk = C nn − k
njkj,f&
Page 33 of 52
vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbybcf lf lbcgthcbbc 'dbct,t,bc 'fyf[vfl fldbkfl vbdbqt,'^ hjv

n n
ESn=  EX i =  p =np lf DSn=np(1–p).
i =1 i =1
ufydb[bkj' itv'[dtdf^ hjltcfw n=4 lf ufvjd'dfkj' P{S4 = k}, k=0,1,2,3,4 fk,f'j,t,b^
itvltub cfvb itv'[dtdbcf'dbc f) p=3/4^ ,) p=1/2, u) p=1/5. vfhnbdb ufvj'dkt,bc itvltu vbdbqt,'
S4- bc itvltu ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyt,c %
0 1 2 3 4
S4 hjwf p=3/4,
1/256 12/256 54/256 108/256 81/256
0 1 2 3 4
S4 hjwf p=1/2,
1/16 4/16 6/16 4/16 1/16
0 1 2 3 4
S4 hjwf p=1/5.
256/625 256/625 96/625 16/625 1/625
hjujhw xfnfht,ekb ufvj'dkt,blfy xfyc^ ofhvfnt,f'f .dtkfpt vjcfkjlytkb hfjltyj,f (fye

ufyfobkt,bc vjlf) lfvjrblt,ekbf wfkrtek wlfib ofhvfnt,f'f p fk,f'j,fpt&
f[kf lfdcdf' fct'b itrb'[df: d'mdf'^ n lf p wyj,bkb hbw[dt,bf* k hbw[dbc hjvtkb
v'tkb k0 vybidytkj,bcf'dbc vbbqt,c Pn (k, p) fk,f'j,f elbltc vybidytkj,fc^ fye ofhvfnt,f'f
hf hfjltyj,ff .dtkfpt vjcfkjlytkb n lfvjerblt,tk wlfib? fv rb'[dfpt gfce[bc ufcfwtvfl
ufydb[bkj' afhlj,f
ak = Pn(k+1, p)/Pn(k, p) = (n – k)p/((k+1)q)
cfblfyfw vbdbqt,'^ hjv ak>1, hjwf k<np–q; ak=1^ hjwf k=np–q lf ak<1^ hjwf k>np–q& fmtlfy rb^
w[flbf^ hjv Pn(k,p) vfmcbvfkeh vybidytkj,fc qt,ekj,c k-bc bv k0 vybidytkj,bcf'dbc^ hjvtkbw
frvf.jabkt,c gbhj,fc%
np–q  k0  np+p& (3.15)
,eyt,hbdbf^ fct' k0 hbw[dc^ hjvtkbw 1 cbuhsbc bynthdfkibf vj'fdct,ekb^ vjwtvekb n
lf p-cf'dbc ,byjvehb ufyfobkt,bc efk,f'tcb hbw[db fye fv ufyfobkt,bc vjlf deojlj'& 'e np–
q fh fhbc v'tkb^ vfiby efk,f'tcb hbw[db th'flth'bf lf vbcb hbw[db'b vybidytkj,ff [(n+1)p]
(fm [x] fqybiyfdc x hbw[dbc v'tk yfobkc) lf vfifcflfvt^ ufyfobkt,f eybvjlfkehbf^ [jkj 'e
np–q v'tkbf^ vfiby Pn(np–q,p)=Pn(np+p, p))^ fye fhct,j,c jhb efk,f'tcb hbw[db k 0(1) = np–q lf
k 0( 2 ) = np+p, lf vfifcflfvt^ ufyfobkt,f ,bvjlfkehbf& vfufkb'fl^ hjwf n=19 lf p=0.15,
(n+1)p=(19+1)0.15=3 v'tkb hbw[dbf^ P19(k,0.15) ufyfobkt,f ,bvjlfkehbf lf itcf,fvbcb
efk,f'tcb hbw[dt,bf 2 lf 3^ [jkj hjwf n=19 lf p=0.36, P19(k,0.36) ufyfobkt,f eybvjlfkehbf
lf efk,f'tcb hbw[dbf [(19+1)0.36]=[7.2]=7. ufhlf fvbcf^ itdybiyj'^ hjv hjwf p<1/(n+1)^ (3.15)
ajhvekf efk,f'tcb hbw[dbcf'dbc udfsktdc k0=0 lf vfifcflfvt^ Pn(k,p) fk,f'j,f^ hjujhw k-c
aeymwbf cek rkt,flbf&
,byjvehb ufyfobkt,f
n – lfvjerblt,tkb wlt,bc hfjltyj,f ,thyekbc wlf'f cmtvfib
p – ofhvfnt,bc fk,f'j,f 'b'jtek wlfib^ q=1–p
Sn – ofhvfnt,f'f hfjltyj,f^ Sn = 0, 1, 2, . . . , n
Pn(k,p)P{Sn=k}= C nk pkqn-k , k=0,1, . . . , n
C nk =n! / (k!(n–k)!), m! = 123   m, 0!=1

Page 34 of 52
ESn = np, DSn= npq,  S n = (npq)1/2

k0 – efk,f'tcb hbw[db^ frvf.jabkt,c gbhj,fc%
(n+1)p–1 k0(n+1)p
vfufkb'b 3.13. bydtcnjhvf uflfo.dbnf 'fyf,hfl xfljc cf[cht,b cfv cfofhvjib bv

gbhj,b'^ hjv ufhrdtekb lhjbc itvltu vfc lfe,heyt,ty xflt,ekb 'fy[bc 150%-c& 'b'jtekb
cfofhvjc ufrjnht,bc fk,f'j,f 0^25-bc njkbf& hfc elhbc fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv fqybiyekb
dflbc itvltu bydtcnjhb lfb,heyt,c ghjtmnt,ib xflt,ek 'fy[fc vfbyw&
fvj[cyf& itbskt,f xfd'dfkj'^ hjv cfofhvjt,t,b^ hjvkt,ibw xfblj cf[cht,b fofhvjt,ty
lfvjerblt,tk cfabyfycj gjkbnbrfc& fvbc ufvj rhtlbnbc fh lf,heyt,bc fk,f'j,fc fmdc
,byjvehb ufyfobkt,f^ cflfw n=3, p=0,75, q=0,25, k=0,1,...,3. X-b' fqdybiyj' lf,heyt,ekb
'fy[f^ hjvkbc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjybf
0 1 2 3
X
0.2 0.14 0.42 0.42
bydtcnjhb lfb,heyt,c ghjtmnt,ib xflt,ek 'fy[fc bv itv'[dtdfib^ 'e bc 'fy[fc

lfb,heyt,c jhb cfofhvjlfy vfbyw^ hbcb fk,f'j,fw 0.84-bc njkbf& 
vfufkb'b 3.14. & ,fyrvf ufcwf 5 rhtlbnb& rhtlbnbc lfe,heyt,kj,bc fk,f'j,ff 0^2&
f) itflubyt' bv rhtlbnjht,bc hfjltyj,bc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyb^ hjvkt,bw dth f,heyt,ty
rhtlbnc dflbc ufcdkbc itvltu&
,) bgjdt' rhtlbnbc fh lf,heyt,bc vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbyb &
fvj[cyf& dbyfblfy rhtlbnjht,b vjmvtlt,ty lfvjerblt,kfl^ vf' vbth rhtlbnbc
lf,heyt,f itbskt,f xfd'dfkj' lfvjerblt,tk [ljvbkj,t,fl& 5 ufwtvekb rhtlbnblfy k
rhtlbnbc fh lf,heyt,bc fk,f'j,fc fmdc ,byjvehb ufyfobkt,f^ cflfw n=5, p=0,2, q=0,8,
k=0,1,...,5. fvbnjv bv rhtlbnjht,bc hfjltyj,bc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyc^ hjvkt,bw dth f,heyt,ty
rhtlbnc dflbc ufcdkbc itvltu fmdc itvltub cf[t
5 4 3 2 1 0
X
0,00032 0,0064 0,0512 0,2048 0,4096 0,32768
tktvtynfhekb ufvj'dkt,b' vbdbqt,'^ hjv vjcfkjlytkb rhtlbnjht,bc hfjltyj,f^

hjvkt,bw dth lff,heyt,ty rhtlbnc th'bc njkbf& 
vfufkb'b 3.15. mfh[fyfv ufvjeidf cfvhtodtkj cfmjykbc 50 gfhnbf& 'b'jtekb gfhnbf
itlut,f 100 th'udfhjdfyb [tkcfo.jlfy fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv [tkcfo.j cfzbhjt,c lfvfnt,b'
htuekbht,fc 0,05-bc njkbf& 'e .jdtkb gfhnbblfy itv'[dtdb' ithxtekb 10 [tkcfo.jlfy th'b
vfbyw cfzbhjt,c lfvfnt,b' htuekbht,fc^ vfiby v'tkb gfhnbfc f,heyt,ty lfvfnt,b'b
htuekbht,bcf'dbc& gfhnbbc lfvfnt,b'b htuekbht,bcf phlbc gfhnbbc 'db'qbht,ekt,fc 500
kfhb'& lfvfnt,b'b htuekbht,bc ufhtit gfhnbbc 'db'qbht,ekt,f 3000 kfhbf& bgjdt'
ufvjidt,ekb ghjlemwbbc cfiefkj 'db'qbht,ekt,f lf cfiefkj rdflhfnekb uflf[hf&
fvj[cyf& jh]th ufvjdb.tyj' ,thyekbc cmtvf& ]th ufvjd'dfkj' A [ljvbkj,bc fk,f-
'j,f^ hjvtkbw bvfib vlujvfhtj,c^ hjv gfhnbfc lff,heyt,ty lfvfnt,b'b htuekbht,bcf'dbc &
P(A)=1-P10(0)= 1-(0,95)10=0,4.
d'mdf' X-ufvjidt,ekb ghjlemwbbc 'db'qbht,ekt,ff^ [jkj Y- lfvfnt,b'b htuekbht,bcf'dbc
lf,heyt,ek gfhnbf'f hfjltyj,ff& rbltd th'[tk dbcfhut,kjl ,thyekbc wlf'f cmtvb'
ofhvfnt,f'f P(A) fk,f'j,b'^ hbc ufvjw lfvfnt,b'b htuekbht,bcf'dbc lf,heyt,ek gfhnbf'f
cfiefkj hfjltyj,ff
EY=n P(A)=500,4=20
Y-bc cfiefkj rdflhfnekb uflf[hff
Y= npq = 50  0,4  0,6 = 3,47
v'tkb ufvjidt,ekb ghjlemwbbc 'db'qbht,ekt,f X itlut,f cfmjykbc 50 gfhnbbc
ufvjcfidt,fl ufotekb [fh]t,bcf C= 503000=150000 kfhbc lf lfvfnt,b'b htuekbht,bcf'dbc
lf,heyt,ekb gfhnbt,bc 'db'qbht,ekt,bcfufy
X=C+500Y
Page 35 of 52
ufvjidt,ekb ghjlemwbbc cfiefkj 'db'qbht,ekt,f EX lf cfiefkj rdflhfnekb uflf[hf X

itcf,fvbcfl njkbf
EX=E(C+500Y)= C+500EY=150000+50020=160000,
X=(C+500Y)= 500Y=5003,47=1733. 
§ 5.3. /BGTHUTJVTNHBEKB UFYFOBKT<F
d'mdf' .e'ib N ,bh'dbf lf vf' ijhbc A 't'hbf& itv'[dtdb'^ lf,heyt,bc ufhtit dbqt,'
n ,bh'dc& dbgjdj' fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv vf' ijhbc pecnfl k wfkb bmyt,f 't'hb&
'e n ,bh'dc ijhbc 't'ht,bc hfjltyj,fc Sn-b' fqdybiyfd'^
C k  C n−k
P(k,n,A,N) = Pn{Sn=k} = A n N − A , k=0,...,n. (3.16)
CN
hbw[d'f fv vbvltdhj,fc /bgthutjvtnhbekb ufyfobkt,f tojlt,f&
vfufkb'b 3.16. felbnjhbfib bv.jat,f 5 df;b lf 10 mfkb, itv'[dtdb' bhxtdty 6

cneltync. bgjdt' fk,f'j,f bvbcf, hjv vf' ijhbc 3 df;bf.
fvj[cyf& 'e ofhvfnt,fl vbdbxytd' df;bc fvjhxtdfc^ vfiby gbhj,bc 'fyf[vfl^ N=15, A=10,
n=6 lf k=3& w[flbf^ hjv 0Sn5 lf (3.21)-bc vb[tldb'^
3 6 −3
C10 C15−10 3 3
C10 C5 120  10
P6(3,6,10,15) = 6
= 6
=  0.239 . 
C15 C15 5005
/bgthutjvtnhbekb ufyfobkt,f
N – j,btmnt,bc cfth'j hfjltyj,f*
A – I cf[bc j,btmnt,bc hfjltyj,f*
(N –A) – II cf[bc j,btmnt,bc hfjltyj,f*
n – itv'[dtdb' (lf,heyt,bc ufhtit) fvjhxtekb j,btmnt,bc hfjltyj,f*
Sn – I cf[bc j,btmnt,bc hfjltyj,f fvjhxtek n j,btmnib^
C k  C n−k
P(K,N,A,N) = PN{SN=K} = A n N − A , K=0,...,N.
CN
§ 5.4. GEFCJYBC UFYFOBKT<F
gefcjybc rfyjyb' ufyfobkt,ekb tojlt,f bct' X itv'[dtdb' cblbltc^ hjvtkbw

qt,ekj,c 0,1,2,... v'tk vybidytkj,t,c
k −
e
P{X=k}= (3.17)
k!
fk,f'j,t,b'^ cflfw  hfbvt lflt,b'b hbw[dbf^ hjvtkcfw gefcjybc ufyfobkt,bc gfhfvtnhc
eojlt,ty&
(3.17) hjv vfh'kfw ufyfobkt,ff tv.fht,f vf'tvfnbreh fyfkbpib wyj,bk afmnc^ hjv e
 k
aeymwbbc ntbkjhbc vorhbdfl ufikfc fmdc itvltub cf[t% e=  .
k =0 k!
ufvjd'dfkj' X itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbyb:
 k −  k  k −1  k
EX =  k e = e − =   e − =   e − = 
k =0 k! k =1 ( k − 1)! k =1 ( k − 1)! k = 0 k!

Page 36 of 52
hjujhw d[tlfd'^ EX=^ t&b&^  gfhfvtnhb ofhvjflutyc X itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc vf'tvfnbreh

kjlbyc (cfiefkj vybidytkj,fc)& fctdt fldbkb cfyf[fdbf^ hjv DX=
'e X lf Y lfvjerblt,tkb gefcjybc ufyfobkt,bc vmjyt itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,bf^
itcf,fvbcfl^ 1 lf 2 gfhfvtnht,b'^ vfiby (X+Y) itv'[dtdb'b cblblt rdkfd gefcjybc
ufyfobkt,bc vmjytf 1+2 gfhfvtnhb'&
gefcjybc ufyfobkt,f^ hjujhw otcb^ ofhvjflutyc rfhu vf'tvfnbreh vjltkc bidbf'
[ljvbkj,f'f fqcfothfl% lhjbc abmcbht,ek iefktlib vjv[lfh [ljvbkj,f'f hfjltyj,f
[ibhfl tvjhxbkt,f gefcjybc ufyfobkt,fc& vfufkb'fl itbskt,f ufvjlutc utbuthbc v'dktkbc
vbth t lhjib htubcnhbht,ekb hflbfmnbehb lfikbc itltufl  yfobkfrt,bc hfjltyj,f^
cfntktajyj cfluehib t lhjbc ufyvfdkj,fib htubcnhbht,ek ufvjsf[t,f'f hfjltyj,f&
ufhrdtek gbhj,t,ib gefcjybc ufyfobkt,f xylt,f hjujhw ,byjvehb ufyfobkt,bc vbf[kjt,f
ofhvfnt,bc vwbht fk,f'j,bcf lf wlf'f lblb hfjltyj,bc itv'[dtdfib&
gefcjybc ufyfobkt,f
gefcjybc tojlt,f bct' X itv'[dtdb' cblbltc^ hjvtkbw qt,ekj,c fhfefh.jab' v'tk
vybidytkj,t,c fk,f'j,t,b'%
k
P{X=k}= e − , k = 0, 1, 2, . . .
k!
 ufyfobkt,bc gfhfvtnhbf^ >0,
EX=DX=
ufydb[bkj' itvltub
vfufkb'b 3.17. wyj,bkbf^ hjv cfntktajyj cfluehib t lhjbc ufyvfdkj,fib itvjcek
ufvjsf[t,f'f hfjltyj,f ofhvjflutyc gefcjybc ufyfobkt,bc vmjyt itv'[dtdb' cblbltc 
gfhfvtnhb' xfd'dfkj'^ hjv lhj bpjvt,f oe't,ib& d'mdf'^ =9. bgjdt' fk,f'j,f bvbcf, hjv
th' oe'ib ufvjsf[t,f'f hfjltyj,f f) bmyt,f 3* ,) fh fqtvfnt,f 4-c&
fvj[cyf& th' oe'ib ufvjsf[t,f'f hfjltyj,fc fmdc gefcjybc ufyfobkt,f gfhfvtnhb'
=9, fvbnjv udtmyt,f%
93 k
f) P{X=3}= e −9 , ,) P{X  4}=  9 e −9 &
4
3! k = 0 k!
hjujhw d[tlfd'^ vbdbqt' ufvj'dkt,bc 'dfkcfphbcb' cfrvfhbcfl h'ekb ufvjcf[ekt,t,b&

fqybiyekb ufvjcf[ekt,bc hbw[db'b vybidytkj,t,bc vbcfqt,fl cfhut,kj,ty gefcjybc
ufyfobkt,bc w[hbkt,b'& 
vfufkb'b 3.18. ,fyrvf n jhufybpfwbfpt ufcwf rhtlbnb^ 'b'jtekpt S 'fy[bc jltyj,b'^ r
ghjwtynbc cfhut,kb'& bgjdt' ,fyrbc vjut,bc vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbyb^ lbcgthcbf lf gbhj,f
ghjwtynpt^ 'e rhtlbnbc lf,heyt,bc fk,f'j,f p-c njkbf&
fvj[cyf& lfdeidf'^ hjv rhtlbnjht,b th'vfyt''fy rfdibhib fh fhbfy^ hbc ufvjw cfmvt
udfmdc n lfvjerblt,tk wlfc'fy ofhcfnt,bc p fk,f'j,b'& d'mdf' X rhtlbnjht,bc hfjltyj,ff^
hjvkt,bw lff,heyt,ty rhtlbnc^ X~Bi(n,p). vfiby ,fyrbc vjut,f Y fhbc
Y =(1+t/100)SX-nS
lf
EY =(1+r/100)SּEX-nS==(1+r/100)Sּnp-nS=Sn(np/100-q)
dbyfblfy rhtlbnbc ufwtvfc fphb fmdc v[jkjl lflt,b'b vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbybc itv'[dtdfib^
EY>0 gbhj,blfy ufvjvlbyfhtj,c gbhj,f ,fyrbc ghjwtynpt
r>100q/p.
,fyrbc vjut,bc lbcgthcbf rb njkbf
DY =D((1+r/100)SDX-nS)= (1+r/100)2S2ּnpq. 

Page 37 of 52
§ 6. EXCEL
ufydb[bkj' lbcrhtnek ufyfobkt,t,'fy lfrfdibht,ekb Excel-bc itvltub cnfnbcnbrehb

aeymwbt,b:
PROB, BINOMDIST, CRITBINOM, HYPGEOMDIST, POISSON.
vjwtvekb cnfnbcnbrehb aeymwbt,bc xfothbcfc ufvj.tyt,ekb fqybidyt,bc bynthghtnfwbf lf
ibyffhcj,hbdb lfndbh'df vjwtvekbf w[hbkib
fqybidyf ibyffhcb
X ufyfobkt,bc cbvrdhbdbc fy ufyfobkt,bc aeymwbbc fhuevtynbc
hbw[db'b vybidytkj,f
X range fht^ cflfw vb'b't,ekbf itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc itcfskj
vybidytkj,t,b
Prob range fht^ cflfw vb'b't,ekbf itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc itcfskj
vybidytkj,t,bc fk,f'j,t,b
Lower limit mdtlf cfpqdfhb
Upper limit ptlf cfpqdfhb
Mean vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbyb
Numbers hfjltyj,f (ofhvfnt,f'f)
Trials wlf'f cthbbc cbuhst
Probability s fk,f'j,f
Sample s I cf[bc j,btmn'f hfjltyj,f ithxtdfib
Number sample itv'[dtdb' (lf,heyt,bc ufhtit) fvjhxtek j,btmn'f hfjltyj,f-
ithxtdbc vjwekj,f
Population s I cf[bc j,btmnt,bc hfjltyj,f gjgekfwbfib
Number pop. j,btmnt,bc hfjltyj,f gjgekfwbfib
Cumullative 'e Cumullative gfhfvtnhbc hbw[db'b vybidytkj,f yekbc njkbf^
vfiby ufvjbfyufhbit,f P{X=k} fk,f'j,f;
'e Cumullative gfhfvtnhbc hbw[db'b vybidytkj,f th'bc njkbf^
vfiby ufvjbfyufhbit,f P{Xk} fk,f'j,f;
PROB aeymwbbc xfothbc cbynfmcb fct'bf:
PROB(X range, Prob range, Lower limit, Upper limit)
PROB aeymwbb' ufvjbfyufhbit,f itvltub fk,f'j,f P{ a X b }.
vfufkb'b&
X itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjybf
X -1 0 2 4 6 9
0.05 0.15 0.18 0.22 0.3 0.1
hbcb njkbf P{0X7}
fvj[cyf&
lfdeidf' X itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyb Excel-bc lfd'hbc aehwkbc itvltu fhtibf
xfdothbkb
A B C D E F
1 -1 0 2 4 6 9
2 0.05 0.15 0.18 0.22 0.3 0.1
fv fvjwfybcf'dbc BINOMDIST aeymwbf fct xfbotht,f:.
PROB(X range, Prob range, Lower limit, Upper limit)= PROB(A1:F1,A2:F2,0,7).

ufvj'dkbc itltufl vbdbqt,'^ hjv cfsbt,tkb [ljvbkj,bc fk,f'j,f 0,85-bc njkbf&
BINOMDIST aeymwbbc xfothbc cbynfmcb fct'bf:

Page 38 of 52
BINOMDIST(Numbers, Trials, Probability s, Cumullative).

,byjvehfl ufyfobkt,ekb X itv'[dtdb'b cblblbcf'dbc ufvjbfyufhbit,f itvltub fk,f'j,t,b
 P{ X = k} = C nk p k (1 − p) n −k , hjwf Cumullative = 0,

P{ X  k} = C m p m (1 − p) n −m , hjwf Cumullative = 1. .
k


 n
m =o
vfufkb'b&
hfc elhbc fk,f'j,f bvbcf, hjv f'b th'yfbhb vchjktkblfy idblb lffpbfyt,c cfvbpytc^ 'e
'b'jtekbc vbth cfvbpytc lfpbfyt,bc fk,f'j,f 0,64-bc njkbf?
fvj[cyf&
fv fvjwfybcf'dbc BINOMDIST aeymwbf fct xfbotht,f:
BINOMDIST(Numbers,Trials,Probability s, Cumullative)= BINOMDIST(7,10,0,64,0).
ufvj'dkbc itltufl vbdbqt,'^ hjv f'b th'yfbhb vchjktkblfy idblbc vbth cfvbpytc
lffpbfyt,bc fk,f'j,f 0,24-bc njkbf&
vfufkb'b&
hfc elhbc fk,f'j,f bvbcf, hjv f'b th'yfbhb vchjktkblfy fhfevtntc idblbcf lffpbfyt,c
cfvbpytc^ 'e 'b'jtekbc vbth cfvbpytc lfpbfyt,bc fk,f'j,ff 0,64?
fvj[cyf& fv itv'[dtdfib BINOMDIST aeymwbf fct xfbotht,f:
BINOMDIST(Numbers,Trials,Probabilitys, Cumullative)= BINOMDIST(7,10,0,64,1).
ufvj'dkbc itltufl vbdbqt,'^ fk,f'j,f bvbcf, hjv f'b th'yfbhb vchjktkblfy fhf evtntc
idblbcf lffpbfyt,c cfvbpytc fhbc 0.24-bc njkb&
CRITBINOM aeymwbbc xfothbc cbynfmcb fct'bf:
CRITBINOM (Trials, Probability s, Alpha).
vjwtvekb -cf'dbc aeymwbbc vybidytkj,f fhbc yfnehfkehb k-c bc vbybvfkehb vybidytkj,f^
k
hjvkbc'dbcfw  P (m)   .
m =0
n
vfufkb'b&
cbcntvf itlut,f f'b th'udfhjdfyb tktvtynbcfufy, hjvkt,bw th'vfyt'bcfufy lfvjerblt,kfl
0.4-bc njkb fk,f'j,b' itbskt,f ufvjdbltc vo.j,hblfy.cbcntvbc tktvtynt,bc hf vbybvfkehb
hfjltyj,f ufvjcekf vo.j,hblfy^ 'e wyj,bkbf, hjv cbcntvbc vo.j,hblfy ufvjcdkbc fk,f'j,f
fhff 0.7-pt yfrkt,b~
fvj[cyf&
vjwtvekbf – cbcntvbc 'b'jtekb tktvtynbc vo.j,hblfy ufvjcdkbc p fk,f'j,f^ p=0,4;
cbcntvbc vo.j,hblfy ufvjcdkbc fk,f'j,f^ hjvtkbw fhff 0.7-pt yfrkt,b^ cbcntvbc tktvtyn'f
hfjltyj,f n, n=10&
dbcfhut,kjl cnfnbcnbrehb aeymwbb' CRITBINOM, hjvtkbw fct xfbotht,f:
CRITBINOM (Trials, Probability s, Alpha)= CRITBINOM (10, 0.4,0.7).
ufvj'dkbc itltufl vbdbqt,'^ hjv 'e cbcntvbc vo.j,hblfy ufvjcdkbc fk,f'j,f fhff 0.7-pt
yfrkt,b^ vfiby vo.j,hblfy ufvjcekf fhfyfrkt,b [e'b tktvtynbcf&
HYPGEOMDIST aeymwbbc xfothbc cbynfmcb fct'bf:
HYPGEOMDIST(Sample s, Number sample , Population s, Number pop).
/bgthutjvtnhbekb ufyfobkt,bc itv'[dtdfib^ 'e N fhbc j,btmnt,bc cfth'j hfjltyj,f^ A – I
cf[bc j,btmnt,bc hfjltyj,f^ (N –A) – II cf[bc j,btmnt,bc hfjltyj,f gjgekfwbfib^ n –
itv'[dtdb' (lf,heyt,bc ufhtit) fvjhxtekb j,btmnt,bc hfjltyj,f^ Sn – I cf[bc j,btmnt,bc
hfjltyj,f fvjhxtek n j,btmnib^ vfiby aeymwbb' ufvjbfyufhbit,f itvltub fk,f'j,f
C Ak  C Nn −−kA
Pn{Sn=k} = , k=0,...,n.
C Nn
vfufkb'b.

Page 39 of 52
gfhnbfib 17 ltnfkbf^ hjvtk'f ijhbc 10 fhfcnfylfhnekbf& itv'[dtdb' dbhxtd' 8 ltnfkc&

bgjdt' fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv vf' ijhbc 5 fhfcnfylfhnekbf&
fvj[cyf&
vjwtvekbf – tktvtynt,bc hfjltyj,f gjgekfwbfib^ N=17, cfbynthtcj 'dbct,bc vmjyt
tktvtynt,bc hfjltyj,f gjgekfwbfib^ A=10, ithxtdbc vjwekj,f^ n=8, cfbynthtcj 'dbct,bc
vmjyt tktvtynt,bc hfjltyj,f ithxtdfib^ k=5.
fv fvjwfybcf'dbc HYPGEOMDIST aeymwbf fct xfbotht,f:
HYPGEOMDISTaeymwbf fct xfbotht,f%
HYPGEOMDIST(Sample s, Number sample , Population s, Number pop)=
HYPGEOMDIST(5,8,10,17).
ufvj'dkbc itltufl vbdbqt,'^ hjv 17 tktvtynbfy cbvhfdkblfy^ hjvtk'f ijhbc 10
fhfcnfylfhnekbf^ fk,f'j,f bvbcf, 8 itv'[dtdb' ithxtek tktvtynib 5 bmyt,f fhfcnfylfh-
nekb 0,27-bc njkbf&
POISSON aeymwbbc xfothbc cbynfmcb fct'bf:

POISSON(x, Mean, Cumullative).
gefcjybc rfyjyb' ufyfobkt,ekb itv'[dtdb'b cblblbcf'dbc ufvjbfyufhbit,f itvltub
fk,f'j,t,b
 k − 
 P{ X = k} =  , hjwf Cumullativ e = 0,
k!
 k
m − 
.


P{ X  k} =
m =o m!
  , hjwf Cumullativ e = 1,
cflfw  gefcjybc ufyfobkt,bc gfhfvtnhbf&

vfufkb'b& cfntktajyj cfluehib itvjcek ufvjsf[t,f'f byntycbdj,ff 12 ufvjsf[t,f oe'ib&
bgjdt' fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv th' oe'ib ufvjsf[t,f'f hfjltyj,f bmyt,f 7*
fvj[cyf&
vjwtvekbf – gefcjybc ufyfobkt,bc cfiefkj^ =12. fv fvjwfybcf'dbc POISSON aeymwbf fct
xfbotht,f%
POISSON(x, Mean, cumullative)= POISSON(7, 9, 0).
ufvj'dkbc itltufl vbdbqt,'^ hjv fk,f'j,f bvbcf, &hjv th' oe'ib ufvjsf[t,f'f hfjltyj,f
bmyt,f idblb fhbc 0,12-bc njkb&
vfufkb'b& cfntktajyj cfluehib itvjcek ufvjsf[t,f'f byntycbdj,ff 12 ufvjsf[t,f oe'ib&
bgjdt' fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv th' oe'ib ufvjsf[t,f'f hfjltyj,f fh fqtvfnt,f idblc&*
fvj[cyf&
fv itv'[dtdfib POISSON aeymwbf fct xfbotht,f%
POISSON(x, Mean, cumullative)= POISSON(7, 9, 1).
ufvj'dkbc itltufl vbdbqt,'^ hjv fk,f'j,f bvbcf, &hjv th' oe'ib ufvjsf[t,f'f hfjltyj,f fh
fqtvfnt,f idblc fhbc 0,32-bc njkb&
• hjujh itv'[dtdb' cblbltc tojlt,f lbcrhenekb~

• hfc ofhvjflutyc lbcrhtnekb itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyb~
• hjujh ufybvfhnt,f itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc ufyfobkt,bc aeymwbf~ xfvj'dfkt' ufyfobkt,bc
aeymwbbc 'dbct,t,b&
• hjujh fdfuj' lbcrhtnekb itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyb' vbcb ufyfobkt,bc
aeymwbf~
• hjujh fdfuj' lbcrhtnekb itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc ufyfobkt,bc aeymwbb' vbcb ufyfobkt,bc
rfyjyb ~
Page 40 of 52
• hfc tojlt,f lbcrhtnekb itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbyb* lbcgthcbf* cfiefkj

rdflhfnekb uflf[hf~
• hf gbhj,t,ibf itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,bc yfvhfdkbc vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbyb vf'b vf'tvfnbrehb
kjlbyt,bc yfvhfdkbc njkb~
• hf gbhj,t,ibf itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,bc ]fvbc lbcgthcbf itcfrht,'f lbcgthcbt,bc ]fvbc
njkb~
• hjujh ufybvfhnt,f itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc vtlbfyf* vjlf~
• hjujh ufybvfhnt,f itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc (fy hfw bubdtf^ F ufyfobkt,bc) p hbubc rdfynbkb~
• hjujh ufybvfhnt,f itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc k hbubc wtynhfkehb lf cfo.bcb vjvtynt,b~
• itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc hjujh ufhlfmvyfc tojlt,f wtynhbht,f* yjhvbht,f* cnfylfhnbpfwbf~
• wlf'f hjujh vbvltdhj,fc eojlt,ty ,thyekbc wlf'f cmtvfc~
• hf itv'[dtdfibf lbcrhtnekb itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyb ,byjvehb~
• hjujh ufyvfhnt,ek hbw[dt,c eojlt,ty ,byjveh rjtabwbtynt,c~
• hjujh ufvjb'dkt,f wlf'f efk,f'tcb hbw[db?
• hjlbc tvjhxbkt,f itv'[dtdb'b cblblt gefcjybc ufyfobkt,fc~
• hfc elhbc ,byjvehfl ufyfobkt,ekb itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbyb lf
lbcgthcbf~
• hfc elhbc gefcjybc rfyjyb' ufyfobkt,ekb itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbyb lf
lbcgthcbf~
CFDFH}BIJT<B
3.1. itv'[dtdb'b cblblt qt,ekj,c itvltu vybidytkj,t,c% x1=3, x2=6, x3=8. wyj,bkbf gbhdtkb
jhb vybidytkj,bc fk,f'j,t,b% p1=0.3, p2=0.5. lfotht' fv cblblbc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyb&
3.2. X lbcrhtnekb itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjybf

–2 –1 1 2 4 6
X
0.1 0.15 0.13 0.17 0.25 0.2
ufvj'dfkt' fk,f'j,f^ bvbcf hjv% f) X  0; ,) X  3; u) X < 2; l) –1 < X  4; t) X>1.
3.3. fult,ty cfv cbvtnhbek vjytnfc& lfotht' uth,bc vjcdkf'f hfjltyj,bc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyb
lf ffut' ufyfobkt,bc aeymwbbc uhfabrb&
3.4. fult,ty jh rfvf'tkc& lfotht' vjcek hbw[d'f ]fvbc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyb&
3.5. fult,ty jh rfvf'tkc& lfotht' vjcek hbw[d'f c[dfj,bc vjlekbc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyb lf
ffut' ufyfobkt,bc aeymwbbc uhfabrb&
3.6. X itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjybf

–7 –3 0 1 4
X
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.25 0.15
bgjdt' Y=X+10 itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc ufyfobktbc rfyjyb&
3.7. lbcrhtnekb X itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjybf

–2 2 3
X
0.2 0.3 0.5
bgjdt' Y=X2 itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyb&
3.8. lfvjerblt,tkb X lf Y itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,bc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyt,bf

Page 41 of 52
0 1 0 1
X Y
qx px qy py
bgjdt' itvltub itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,bc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyt,b
f) Z=X+Y, ,)U=X–Y, u) V=XY.

1 2 4
X
0.5 0.2 0.3
bgjdt' Y=1/(3–X) itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyb&

1 3 5 7 9
X
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1
bgjdt' Z = min(X,4) itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyb&

–1 0 2 3 5
X
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1
bgjdt' Z = max(X,2) itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyb&

–2 –1 0 3 5
X
0.1 0.15 0.3 0.3 0.15
bgjdt' vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbyb&

–1.5 0.2 0.6 2 2.6 3.5
X
0.1 0.15 0.2 0.35 0.15 0.05
bgjdt'% f) vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbyb^ ,) lbcgthcbf u) cfiefkj rdflhfnekb uflf[hf&
3.14. ufvj'dfkt' X lbcrhtnekb itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc [EX– DX , EX+ DX ] iefktlib

vj[dtlhbc fk,f'j,f^ 'e vbcb ufyfobkt,bc rfyjybf
–1 0 1 2
X
0.3 0.1 0.4 0.2
3.15. ufvj'dfkt' X lbcrhtnekb itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc [EX– DX , EX+ DX ] iefktlib

vj[dtlhbc fk,f'j,f^ 'e vbcb ufyfobkt,bc rfyjybf
–2 –1 0 3
X
0.05 0.3 0.5 0.15
3.16. X cblblbc lbcgthcbf 5-bc njkbf& hbcb njkbf itvltub itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,bc
lbcgthcbt,b~ f) X+1, ,) –2X, u) 4X+7.
3.17. itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc vybidytkb,t,bf x1=1, x2=2, x3=3. fctdt wyj,bkbf^ hjv EX=2.3,
DX=0.41. bgjdt' hf fk,f'j,b' bqt,c itv'[dtdb'b cblblt fv vybidytkj,t,c.
3.18. lbcrhtnekb X itv'[dtdb'b cblblt qt,ekj,c jh x1 lf x2 vybidytkj,fc^ (x1<x2) lf

P{X=x1}=0.6. bgjdt' X-bc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyb^ 'e EX=1.4 lf DX=0.24-c&

Page 42 of 52
3.19. itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc vybidytkb,t,bf x1=1, x2, x3. fvfc'fy x1<x2<x3. fctdt wyj,bkbf^ hjv
p1=P{X=1}=0.3; p2=P{X=x2}=0.2; EX=2.2, DX=0.76. bgjdt' X itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc ufyfobkt,bc
rfyjyb.
3.20. lbcrhtnekb X itv'[dtdb'b cblblt qt,ekj,c v[jkjl jh^ x1 lf x2 vybidytkj,fc^ (x1<x2)

lf P{X=x1}=0.2. bgjdt' X-bc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyb^ 'e EX=1.8 lf =0.4-c&
3.21. vjwtvekbf p1=0.5, p2=0.5, EX=3, DX=1. hjujhbf X itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc ufyfobkt,bc
rfyjyb~
3.22. vjwtvekbf p1=0.3, p2=0.7, EX=0.4, DX=0.84. bgjdt' x1 lf x2 (x1<x2)
3. 23. lfvjerblt,tkb X lf Y itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,bc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyt,bf

0 4 -2 0 2 3
X Y
0.6 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3
bgjdt' Z=X-Y2 itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyb
3.24. lfvjerblt,tkb X lf Y itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,bc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyt,bf

1 2 -2 0 2 4
X Y
0.6 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3
bgjdt' Z= Y2 /X itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyb&
3.25. d'mdf'^ X ,byjvehb ufyfobkt,bc vmjyt itv'[dtdb'b cblbltf& ufvj'dfkt' P{X=k}

fk,f'j,t,b^ 'e f) n=4, p=0.5, k=2, ,) n=5, q=0.3, k=3, u) n=6, q=0.4, k=2, l) n=3, p=0.7, k=1.
3.26. bgjdt' ,byjvehb ufyfobkt,bc vmjyt itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbyb^

lbcgthcbf^ cfiefkj rdflhfnekb uflf[hf lf efk,f'tcb hbw[db^ 'e f) n=20, p=0.5, ,) n=50,
q=0.3, u) n=100, q=0.4, l) n=200, p=0.7.
3.27. d'mdf' X ,byjvehb ufyfobkt,bc vmjyt itv'[dtdb'b cblbltf gfhfvtnht,b' n=4, p=0.1&
hjujhb bmyt,f X-bc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyb~
3.28. ufvj'dfkt' fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv vjytnbc [e']th fult,bcfc th'[tk vfbyw vjdf cfafcehb&
3.29. ufvj'dfkt' fk,f'j,f bvbcf, hjv jhb rfvf'kbc j'[]th fult,bcfc ]fvib th'[tk vfbyw
lf]lt,f idblbfyb&
3.30. hf eahj vjcfkjlytkbf: njkb sfkbc vj'fvfitc'fy j'[blfy jhb gfhnbbc vjut,f^ 'e
tmdcblfy – cfvbc~ (.fbvb ufvjhbw[ekbf)&
3.31& hf eahj vjcfkjlytkbf: rfvf'kbc tmdc]th ufujht,bcfc cfvbc ]thflb hbw[dbc jh]th
vjcdkf^ 'e @ifibc# th'[tk vjcdkf~
3.32. fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv j'[b ufchjkbcfc vchjktkb th'[tk vfbyw vjf[dtlht,c cfvbpytc^
fhbc 0.9984. ufvj'dfkt' vchjktkbc vbth th'[tk ufchjkbcfc cfvbpytib vj[dtlhbc
fk,f'j,f&
3.33& hfc elhbc fk,f'j,f bvbcf, hjv 36 rfhnbfyb ,fymjc lfcnblfy 5-]th th'b rfhnbc
(lf,heyt,b') fvjqt,bcfc jh]th fvjdf "nepb"?
3.34& cbcntvf itlut,f [e'b th'udfhjdfyb tktvtynbcfufy, hjvkt,bw th'vfyt'bcfufy

lfvjerblt,kfl 1/7-bc njkb fk,f'j,b' itbskt,f ufvjdbltc vo.j,hblfy. hfc elhbc fk,f'j,f

Page 43 of 52
bvbcf, hjv cbcntvf ufvjdf vo.j,hblfy 'e wyj,bkbf, hjv fvbcf'dbc cfzbhjf vo.j,hblfy
ufvjdbltc cbcntvbc jhb tktvtynb vfbyw&
3.35. chjkbcfc cfvbpytc lfpbfyt,bc fk,f'j,ff 0^8& hfc elhbc fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv 5
ufchjkbcfc cfvbpyt lfpbfylt,f jh]th~
3.36. bydtcnjhvf uflfo.dbnf 'fyf,hfl xfljc cf[cht,b j'[ cfofhvjib bv gbhj,b'^ hjv
ufhrdtekb lhjbc itvltu vfc lfe,heyt,ty xflt,ekb 'fy[bc 150%-c& 'b'jtekb cfofhvjc
ufrjnht,bc fk,f'j,f 0&4-bc njkbf& hfc elhbc fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv fqybiyekb dflbc itvltu
bydtcnjhb lfb,heyt,c ghjtmnt,ib xflt,ek 'fy[fc vfbyw&
3.37. bydtcnjhvf uflfo.dbnf 'fyf,hfl xfljc cf[cht,b j'[ cfofhvjib bv gbhj,b'^ hjv
ufhrdtekb lhjbc itvltu vfc lfe,heyt,ty xflt,ekb 'fy[bc 150%-c& 'b'jtekb cfofhvjc
ufrjnht,bc fk,f'j,f 0&35-bc njkbf& hfc elhbc fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv fqybiyekb dflbc itvltu
bydtcnjhb lfb,heyt,c ghjtmnt,ib xflt,ek 'fy[fc vfbyw&
3.38. ,fyrvf ufcwf 5 rhtlbnb& rhtlbnbc lfe,heyt,kj,bc fk,f'j,ff 0^25& itflubyt' bv rhtlbnj-
ht,bc hfjltyj,bc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyb^ hjvkt,bw dth f,heyt,ty rhtlbnc dflbc ufcdkbc itvltu&
bgjdt' dfkbc fh lfv,heyt,ek rhtlbnjht,bc hfjltyj,bc vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbyb&
3. 39. ,fyrvf ufcwf 7 rhtlbnb& rhtlbnbc lfe,heyt,kj,bc fk,f'j,ff 0^15& itflubyt' bv rhtlbnj-
ht,bc hfjltyj,bc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyb^ hjvkt,bw dth f,heyt,ty rhtlbnc dflbc ufcdkbc itvltu&
bgjdt' dfkbc fh lfv,heyt,ek rhtlbnjht,bc hfjltyj,bc vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbyb&
3.40& .e'ib 3 ob'tkb, 2 ifdb lf 5 't'hb ,eh'bf. hfc elhbc fk,f'j,f bvbcf, hjv .e'blfy th'b
,eh'bc j'[]th lf,heyt,b' fvjqt,bcfc jh]th fvjdf 't'hb ,eh'b&
3.41. fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv j'[b ufchjkbcfc vchjktkb th'[tk vfbyw vjf[dtlht,c cfvbpytc
fhbc 0.9919& ufvj'dfkt' vchjktkbc vbth th'[tk ufchjkbcfc cfvbpytc lfpbfyt,bc fk,f'j,f&
3.42. 'b'jtek lfvjerblt,tk wlfib xdty'dbc cfbynthtcj [ljvbkj,bc ufy[jhwbtkt,bc

fk,f'j,f 0.8-c njkbf& hfvltyb lfvjerblt,tkb wlf eylf xfdfnfhj'^ hf'f xdty'dbc cfbynthtcj
[ljvbkj,bc uy[jhwbtkt,bc hfjltyj,bc efk,f'tcb hbw[db b.jc 33-bc njkb~
3.43. hfc elhbc xdty'dbc cfbynthtcj [ljvbkj,bc uy[jhwbtkt,bc p fk,f'j,f 129 lfvjerblt-
,tk wlfib^ 'e wlf'f fv cthbfib [ljvbkj,bc uy[jhwbtkt,bc efk,f'tcb hbw[db 90-bc njkbf~
3.45. d'mdf' X /bgthutjvtnhbekb ufyfobkt,bc vmjyt itv'[dtdb'b cblbltf gfhfvtnht,b' s, t, n&

ufvj'dfkt' P{X=k} fk,f'j,t,b^ 'e
f) N=5, A=3, n=3, k=2, ,) N=10, A=6, n=4, k=3, u) N=4, A=2, n=3, k=1, l) N=7, A=4, n=3, k=2.
3.46. ehyfib 35 't'hb lf 5 ifdb ,bh'dbf& ehyblfy itv'[dtdb' bqt,ty 9 ,bh'dc& hfc elhbc
fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv vf' ijhbc 2 ifdb ,bh'db bmyt,f~
3.47. lfcnblfy^ hjvtkibw 52 rfhnbf itv'[dtdb' bqt,ty cfv rfhnc& ufvj'dfkt' fk,f'j,f bvbcf^
hjv vf' ijhbc pecnfl th'b nepb bmyt,f&
3.48. lfcnblfy^ hjvtkibw 52 rfhnbf itv'[dtdb' bqt,ty cfv rfhnc& hjujhbf bvbc fk,f'j,f^ hjv
vf' ijhbc fhwth'b nepb fh bmyt,f~
3.49. felbnjhbfib bv.jat,f 25 ,bzb lf 10 ujuj, itv'[dtdb' bhxtdty 10 cneltync. bgjdt'

fk,f'j,f bvbcf, hjv vf' ijhbc 7 ,bzbf&

Page 44 of 52
3.50. yfrhsfkib 20 bhtvbf^ vf'ufy 7 lfbzbhtc^ lfqb lffltc lf bctd n.tib ufeidtc& ufhrdtekb
lhjbc itvltu bv 20-blfy 4 rdkfd lfbzbhtc& hf fhbc fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv vf' ijhbc 2
lfqlfcvekb bmyt,f~
3.51. .e'ib 4 't'hb lf 3 ifdb ,eh'bf& .e'blfy lfe,heyt,kfl bqt,ty 4 ,eh'c. bgjdt' fk,f'j,f
bvbcf, hjv fvjqt,ekb ,eh't,blfy ifdb ,eh't,bc hfjltyj,f vtnbf 't'hb ,eh't,bc
hfjltyj,fpt&
3.52& cfntktajyj cfluehib itvjcek ufvjsf[t,f'f byntycbdj,ff 5 ufvjsf[t,f oe'ib. bgjdt'

fk,f'j,f bvbcf, hjv th' oe'ib ufvjsf[t,f'f hfjltyj,f bmyt,f* f) 2-bc njkb^ ,) 2-pt yfrkt,b^ u)
fhf evwbhtc jhbcf& vb'b't,f% e –10=0.000045.
3.53. fdnjcfkjybc .jdtklqbehb [fh]t,b vjvcf[eht,fpt lf htrkfvfpt itflutyc 120 kfhc&

.jdtk'dbehfl uf.blekb fdnjvfymfyt,bc hfjltyj,f X tvjhxbkt,f itvltu ufyfobkt,fc
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
X
0.25 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.05 0.05 0.025 0.025
bgjdt' fdnjcfkjybc .jdtk'dbehb cfiefkj vjut,f^ 'e fdnjvfymfybc afcbf 8000 kfhb&
3.54. fk,f'ehb ghjuyjpb fmwbbc rehcbc ghjwtynekb wdkbkt,bcf 6 'dbc ufyvfdkj,fib

vjwtvekbf itvltub ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyb'
4 6 8 10 12 14
X
0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1
bgjdt' fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv fmwbf'f .bldf eahj vjvut,bfybf^ dblht 'fy[bc cf,fyrj ltgjpbnpt
itnfyf 6 'dbc dflb' okbehb 18% bc cfhut,kb' otkboflib .jdtk'dbehb lfhbw[db'&
3.55. fk,f'ehb ghjuyjpb fmwbbc rehcbc ghjwtynekb wdkbkt,bcf 4 'dbc ufyvfdkj,fib

vjwtvekbf itvltub ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyb'
5 10 15 20 25 30
X
0.1 0.1 0.15 0.35 0.2 0.1
bgjdt' fk,f'j,f bvbcf^ hjv fmwbf'f .bldf eahj vjvut,bfybf^ dblht 'fy[bc cf,fyrj ltgjpbnpt
itnfyf 4 'dbc dflb' 'dtib 4% bc cfhut,kb' (h'ekb)
3.56. fdnjcfkjybc .jdtklqbehb [fh]t,b vjvcf[eht,fpt lf htrkfvfpt itflutyc 150 kfhc&

.jdtk'dbehfl uf.blekb fdnjvfymfyt,bc hfjltyj,f X tvjhxbkt,f itvltu ufyfobkt,fc
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
X
0.5 0.15 0.1 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01
f) bgjdt' fdnjcfkjybc cfiefkj .jdtk'dbehb vjut,f^ 'e fdnjvfymfybc afcbf 10000 kfhb
,) bgjdt' .jdtk'dbehfl uf.blekb vfymfyt,bc cfiefkj rdflhfnekb uflf[hf

Page 45 of 52
"FDB I I I*. JHUFYPJVBKT<BFYB ITV"{DTDB"B CBLBLTT<B
§ 1. JHUFYPJVBKT<BFYB LBCRHTNEKB ITV"{DTDB"B CBLBLTT<B
X lf Y lbcrhtnekb itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,bcfufy itlutybk (X,Y) dtmnjhc lbcrhtnekb

itv'[dtdb'b dtmnjhb tojlt,f& lbcrhtnekb nbgbc itv'[dtdb'b dtmnjhbc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyb
ufybcfpqdht,f vbcb itcfskj vybidytkj,t,bcf lf itcf,fvbcb fk,f'j,t,bc vjwtvb'& ufyfobkt,bc
rfyjyb fldbkfl xfbotht,f itvltub w[hbkbc cfiefkt,b'%
w[hbkb 5.1
Y
X y1 y2 ... ym
x1 p11 p12 ... p1m
x2 p21 p22 ... p2m (5.1)
... ... ... ... ...
xn pn1 pn2 ... pnm
cflfw gbhdtk cdtnib lf gbhdtk cnhbmjyib vb'b't,ekb x1,x2,...,xn lf^ itcf,fvbcfl^ y1,y2,...,ym
hbw[db'b vybidytkj,t,b fhbc X lf^ itcf,fvbcfl^ Y itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,bc itcfskj vybidytkj-
,t,b^ [jkj pij fhbc X-bc vbth xi vybidytkj,bc lf th'lhjekfl Y-bc vbth yj vybidytkj,bc vbqt-
n m
,bc fk,f'j,f^ pij=P{X=xi,Y=yh}, i=1,2,...,n, j=1,2,...,m, lf  pij = 1 & fct' w[hbkc X lf Y
i =1 j =1
itv'[dtdb' cblblt'f th'j,kbdb ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyb fy vjrktl^ th'j,kbdb ufyfobkt,f
tojlt,f &
jhufypjvbkt,bfyb itv'[dtdb'b dtmnjhbc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyblfy fldbkfl vbbqt,f vbcb
yt,bcvbthb rjvgjytynbc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyb& vfh'kfw^ dbyfblfy
X = xi  =  X = xi , Y = y j ,
m
j =1
udtmyt,f
m
 pij
m
pi• P{X=xi}=  P{ X = xi , Y = y j } = (5.2)
j =1 j =1
lf fyfkjubehfl^
n
p• j P{Y=yj} =  P{ X = xi , Y = y j } =  pij &
n
(5.3)
i =1 i =1
fct'b [th[b' vbqt,ek
X
x1 x2 ... xn
p1• p2• ... pn•
lf
Y
y1 y2 ... tn
p•1 p•2 ... p•m
ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyt,c^ X lf^ itcf,fvbcfl^ Y itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,bc vfhubyfkehb ufyfobkt,bc

rfyjyt,c eojlt,ty& vfifcflfvt^ bvbcf'dbc^ hjv ufvjd'dfkj' {X=xi} ({Y=yj}) [ljvbkj,bc
pi•=P{X=xi} (p•j=P{Y=xj}) fk,f'j,f^ cfzbhjf itdrhb,j' w[hbkbc i-eh cnhbmjyib (j-eh cdtnib)
vj'fdct,ekb fk,f'j,t,b&
w[hbkb 5.2
Y
X y1 y2 ... ym
x1 p11 p12 ... p1m p1•
x2 p21 p22 ... p2m p2•
Page 46 of 52
... ... ... ... ... ...

xn pn1 pn2 ... pnm pn•
p•1 p•2 ... p•m 1
'e th'-th'b fy jhbdt rjvgjytynb vybidytkj,f'f 'dkfl hfjltyj,fc bqt,c^ cfchekb
]fvt,b itcf,fvbcb ecfchekj ]fvt,b' itbwdkt,f&
hjujhw udf[cjdc^ A lf B [ljvbkj,t,c tojlt,fl lfvjerblt,kt,b^ 'e

P(AB)=P(A)P(B). (5.4)
lfdeidf'^ hjv A lf B [ljvbkj,f itvltub cf[bcff% A={X=xi}, B={Y=yj}& vfiby (5.3)-blfy
vbdbqt,':
pij = P{X = xi , Y = yj}= P{X = xi}.P{Y = yj}= pi • p •j
X lf Y lbcrhtnek itv'[dtdb' cblbltt,c tojlt,f lfvjerblt,tkb^ 'e .jdtkb (i,j)
odbkbcf'dbc
pij = P{X = xi , Y = yj}= P{X = xi}.P{Y = yj}= pi • p • j . (5.5)
vfufkb'b 5.1. d'mdf' dfujht,' jh otcbth rfvf'tkc& X-b' fqdybiyj' gbhdtk rfvf'tkpt^
[jkj Y-b' – vtjhtpt vjcekb mekt,b& vfiby (X,Y) ofhvjflutyc jhufypjvbkt,bfy lbcrhtnek
itv'[dtdb' dtmnjhc& dyf[j'^ hjujhbf fv dtmnjhbc ufyfobkt,f lf lfdflubyj'^ fhbc 'e fhf vbcb
rjvgjytynt,b lfvjerblt,tkb&
fvj[cyf& fk,f'j,bc rkfcbrehb ufycfpqdht,bc 'fyf[vfl^ hflufy tmcgthbvtynbc .dtkf
itcfskj itltu'f cbvhfdkt 36-tktvtynbfybf^ fvbnjv 'b'jtekb (i,j) o.dbkbc vjcdkbc fk,f'j,f
1/36-bc njkbf: pij={X=i,Y=j}=1/36, i,j=1,2,...,6& fvfdt lhjc:
1 1
pi• = P{ X = i} = ^ p• j = P{Y = j} =
6 6
lf vfifcflfvt^
p ij=pi• p •j 
vfufkb'b 5.2. 5.1 vfufkb'bc gbhj,t,ib itdfvjovj'^ fhbc 'e fhf lfvjerblt,tkb X lf
|X−Y| itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,b&
fvj[cyf& fldbkb lfcfyf[bf^ hjv
P{X=3, |X–Y| = 4}= 0,
[jkj
P{X = 3} = 1/6, P{|X–Y | = 4} = 4/36.
fvhbufl^ hflufy
P{ X = 3, |X–Y | = 4}  P{X = 3} P{ |X–Y | = 4},
X lf |X–Y | itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,b fh fhbc lfvjerblt,tkb& 
§ 2. JHUFYPJVBKT<BFYB ITV"{DTDB"B CBLBLBC

HBW{DB"B VF{FCBF"T<KT<B&
d'mdf'^ (X,Y) itv'[dtdb'b dtmnjhbc rjvgjytynt,bc vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbyt,bf

itcf,fvbcfl EX-bc lf EY-bc njkbf& vfiby (EX,EY) hbw[db' dtmnjhc (X,Y) itv'[dtdb'b dtmnjhbc
vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbybc (fy kjlbyt,bc dtmnjhb) tojlt,f& (EX,EY) dtmnjhbc rjvgjytynt,c fmdc
th'ufypjvbkt,bfyb itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbybc .dtkf 'dbct,f lf fvbnjv xdty
vf' fqfh ufdbvtjht,'&
ufydcfpqdhj' jhufypjvbkt,bfyb itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc c[df hbw[db'b vf[fcbf't,kt,b&
X lf Y itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,bc rjdfhbfwbf tojlt,f fv cblblt'f vf'bdt vf'tvfnbrehb
kjlbyt,blfy uflf[ht,bc yfvhfdkbc vf'tvfnbreh kjlbyc%
cov(X,Y)=E[(X–EX)(Y–EY)]. (5.6)
vf'tvfnbreh kjlbybc 'dbct,t,bc ufvj.tyt,b'^ fldbkb cfxdtyt,tkbf^ hjv

Page 47 of 52
cov(X,Y) = EXY–EXEY. (5.7)

vfh'fw
cov(X,Y)=E[(X–EX)(Y–EY)]=E[XY-XEY-YEX+EXEY]=EXY-EXEY-EXEY+EXEY=EXY–EXEY (5.8)
hjltcfw (X,Y) (5.1) ufyfobkt,bc rfyjybc vmjyt lbcrhtnekb itv'[dtdb'b dtmnjhbf^ vfiby
n m
EXY =   xi  y j  pij . (5.9)
i =1 j =1
itdybiyj'^ hjv 'e X lf Y itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,b lfvjerblt,tkbf^ vfiby EXY=EXEY lf

cov(X,Y) = 0.
fvhbufl^
'e X lf Y itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,b lfvjerblt,tkbf^ vfiby cov(X,Y) = 0.
(5.7) ajhvekblfy ufvjvlbyfhtj,c^ hjv itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc lbcgthcbf itbskt,f
ufydb[bkj'^ hjujhw fv itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc 'fdbc 'fd'fy rjdfhbfwbf& vfh'kfw^ rjdfhbfwbbc
ufycfpqdht,bc 'fyf[vfl^
cov(X,X)=E(X–EX)(X–EX)=E(X–EX)2=DX .
rjdfhbfwbfc uffxybf itvltub 'dbct,t,b:
1) cov(X,Y)=cov(Y,X) – rjdfhbfwbf cbvtnhekbf*

2) cov(X1+X2,Y)=cov(X1,Y)+cov(X2,Y) – rjdfhbfwbf flbwbehbf*
3) cov(aX+b,Y)=acov(X,Y) – itv'[dtdb' cblbltpt velvbdb cblblbc lfvfnt,f vbc rjdfhbfwbfc
vtjht itv'[dtdb' cblbltc'fy fh wdkbc^ [jkj velvbdb vfvhfdkb uflbc rjdfhbfwbbc ybiybc
ufht'*
4) 'e X lf Y itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,b lfvjerblt,tkbf^ vfiby cov(X,Y)=0&
rjdfhbfwbf f[fcbf't,c rfdibhc jh itv'[dtdb' cblbltc ijhbc& cf[tklj,h^ hjujhw
rjdfhbfwbbc (5.6) ufycfpqdht,blfy xfyc^ bc ofhvjflutyc jhb itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc vf'b
cfiefkjt,bc vbvfh' .jafmwtdbc "vcufdct,bc" cfpjvc: rjdfhbfwbf lflt,b'bf^ 'e X lf Y
itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,b cfiefkjl th'cf lf bvfdt v[fhtc b[ht,bfy itcf,fvbcfl EX lf EY
vybidytkj,t,blfy lf bc efh.jab'bf^ 'e X lf Y itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,b EX lf EY vybidyt-
kj,t,blfy cfiefkjl c[dflfc[df v[fhtc fhbfy uflf[hbkb& cfpjufljl rjdfhbfwbbc
rjtabwbtynvf itbskt,f vbbqjc yt,bcvbthb hbw[db'b vybidytkj,f (– ,) bynthdfkblfy&
jh itv'[dtdb' cblbltc ijhbc lfvjrblt,ekt,bc lfcf[fcbf't,kfl eahj vj[th[t-
,ekbf t&o& rjhtkfwbbc rjtabwbtynbc itvjqt,f&
X lf Y itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,bc rjhtkfwbbc rjtabwbtynb tojlt,f hbw[dc
cov ( X , Y ) cov ( X , Y )
(X,Y) = = & (5.10)
DX DY  X Y
hjujhw d[tlfd'^ vj[lf rjdfhbfwbbc rjtabwbtynbc v[jkjl yjhvbht,f^ vfcinf,bc itwdkf^
vfuhfv fv yjhvbht,fc fmdc ufhrdtekb fk,f'ehb ibyffhcb^ hjvtkbw rfhufl xfyc rjhtkfwbbc
rjtabwbtynbc mdtvj' xfvj'dkbkb 'dbct,t,blfy:
10 (X,Y) = (Y,X),
− 1, ' e a  0,

2 (aX,Y) = sign a(X,Y), cflfw sign a =  0, ' e a = 0,
0
+ 1, ' e a  0,

30 |(X,Y)|  1 ,
40 'e X lf Y itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,b lfvjerblt,tkbf^ vfiby (X,Y) = 0&
50 |(X,Y)|=1 vfiby lf v[jkjl vfiby^ hjwf Y=aX+b hfbvt yfvldbkb a lf b hbw[dt,bcf'dbc
fye^ hjwf X lf Y itv'[dtdb' cblbltt,c ijhbc fhct,j,c ohabdb rfdibhb^ fvfc'fy a>0
vfiby lf v[jkjl vfiby^ hjltcfw = lf a<0 vfiby lf v[jkjl vfiby^ hjltcfw =−
cfpjufljl 40 'dbct,bc it,heyt,ekb lt,ekt,f^ hjv "'e (X,Y)=0^ vfiby X lf Y
itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,b lfvjerblt,tkbf"^ fh fhbc cojhb& hjwf (X,Y)=0 fv,j,ty^ hjv X lf Y

Page 48 of 52
itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,b fhfrjhtkbht,ekbf fhct,j,c th'flth'b rkfcb eo.dtnb itv'[dtdb'b

cblbltt,bcf^ hjvtk'f'dbcfw fhfrjhtkbht,bcf lf lfvjerblt,kj,bc wyt,t,b tv'[dtdf* rthsjl^
tc fhbc rkfcb yjhvfkehfl ufyfobkt,ekb itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,bcf& vjdb.dfyj' vfufkb'b
bvbcf^ hjv fhfrjhtkbht,ekj,blfy fh ufvjvlbyfhtj,c itv'[dtdb' cblblt'f lfvjerblt,kj,f&
vfufkb'b 5.3. ufvjd'dfkj' X lf |X–Y| itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,bc rjdfhbfwbbc
rjtabwbtynb^ cflfw X lf Y vfufkb' 5.2-ibf ufycfpqdhekb&
fvj[cyf. lfdeidf' (X,Y) itv'[dtdb'b dtmnjhb qt,ekj,c (-1,0), (1,0), (0,-1), (0,1) vybidytkj,t,c
1/4 –bc njkb fk,f'j,b'& ufdwt' rb'[df itvltu jh itrb'[dfc%
lfvjerblt,kt,bf 'e fhf X lf Y itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,b~
hbcb njkbf rjdfhbfwbf X lf Y itv'[dtdb' cblbltt,c ijhbc~&
fvj[cyf& X lf Y itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,bc th'j,kbdb lf vfhubyfkehb ufyfobkt,bc
rfyjyt,b vjbwtvf w[hbkb'
Y
X -1 0 1 pj•
-1 0 1/4 0 1/4
0 1/4 0 ¼ 1/2
1 0 1/4 0 1/4
p•j 1/4 1/2 ¼ 1
cfblfyfw dgjekj,'^ hjv

EX=0, EY=0
lf fctdt^
3 3
EXY=  i  jP{X = i, Y = j} = 0.
j =1 i =1
vfifcflfvt^ cov(X,Y)=0 fye (X,Y)=0, vbe[tlfdfl bvbcf^ hjv^ X lf Y itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,b fh

fhbfy lfvjerblt,kt,b (hfnjv~) c[dfyfbhfl hjv d'mdf'^ (X,Y)=0 njkj,blfy fh ufvjvlb-
yfhtj,c X lf Y itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,bc lfvjerblt,kj,f& 
2
vfufkb'b 5.4. d'mdf' X~N(0,1) lf Y=X -1 lfvjerblt,tkb itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,bf& hbcb
njkbf X lf Y itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,bc rjdfhbfwbbc rjtabwbtynb~
fvj[cyf& dbyfblfy X~N(0,1), EX=0, EX3=0, vbdbqt,'
cov(X,Y)= cov(X,X2-1)=cov(X,X2)-cov(X,1)=EX3-EXEX2-EX+EX=0. 
yt,bcvbthb X lf Y itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,bcf'dbc flubkb fmdc itvltu njkj,fc%
D(X+Y)=E((X+Y)–E(X+Y))2=E((X–EX)+(Y–EY))2=
=E((X–EX)2 +2(X–EX)(Y–EY)+(E–EY)2).
fvhbufl^
D(X+Y) = DX+DY+2cov(X,Y).
tc afmnb cfvfh'kbfybf itcfrht,'f yt,bcvbthb cfchekb hfjltyj,bcf'dbc& eylf
fqbybiyjc^ hjv flubkb fmdc itvltu vybidytkjdfy afmnc
 n 
 ( )
n
 i =1

D ai X i  = ai2
 i =1

DX i + 2 ai a j
i j
cov X i , X j . (5.11)
X=(X1,X2,..,Xn) itv'[dtdb'b dtmnjhbc rjdfhbfwbekb vfnhbwf tojlt,f nxn hbubc

rdflhfnek
 11  12 ...  1n
 21  22 ...  2 n
V= ,
... ... ... ...
 n1  n 2 ...  nn
vfnhbwfc^ hjvkbc tktvtynt,bf ii =  = DXi .i= 1, 2, ..., n, ij = cov(Xi,Xj), i≠j, i,j=1, 2, .., ..,n.
Page 49 of 52
rjdfhbfwbbc 'dbct,t,blfy ufvjvlbyfhtj,c^ hjv rjdfhbfwbekb vfnhbwf cbvtnhbekbf lf vbcb

lbfujyfkehb tktvtynt,b X1,X2,..,Xn itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,bc lbcgthcbt,bc njkbf&
vjdb.dfyj' erfyfcrytkb afmnbc ufvj.tyt,bc
vfufkb'b 5.5. lfdeidf' bydtcnjhb bydtcnbwbt,c fy[jhwbtkt,c jh c[dflfc[df A lf B
ghjtmnib& fvb' bc mvybc cfbydtcnbwbj gjhtatkc& lfdeidf'^ A ghjtmnbc cfiefkj rdflhfnekb
uflf[hff A=15, [jkj B ghjtmnbcf'dbc B=14 fctdt lfdeidf'^ hjv ghjtmnt,bc obkb
gjhnatkib njkbf& ufvjd'dfkj' gjhnatkbc cfiefkj rdflhfnekb uflf[hf&
fvj[cyf& egbhdtktc .jdkbcf ufydb[bkj' itv'[dtdf^ hjwf A lf B fmnbdt,c ijhbc
chek.jabkb lflt,b'b rjhtkfwbff (e&b& r=1)& gjhnatkbc lbcgthcbf  ufvjb'dkt,f (5.11)
ajhvekb'& vbdbqt,'^
=(0,5)2(15)2+(0,5)2(14)2+2·0,5·0,5·15·14=210,25; =14,5.
fvhbufl gjhnatkbc cfiefkj rdflhfnekb uflf[hf 14.5-bc njkbf; bc wfkrtekb
fmnbdt,bc cfiefkj rdflhfnekb uflf[ht,bc fhb'vtnbrekb cfiefkjc njkbf&
f[kf ufydb[bkj' itv'[dtdf^ hjwf fmnbdt,c ijhbc rjhtkfwbf 0,6-bc njkbf& fv
itv'[dtdfib&
=(0,5)2(15)2+(0,5)2(14)2+2·0,5·0,5·15·14·0,6=168,25;  =12,96
t&b& gjhnatkbc cfiefkj rdflhfnekb uflf[hf 12.9-bc njkbf; bc yfrkt,bf wfkrtekb fmnbdbc
cfiefkj rdflhfnek uflf[hfpt&
'e lfdeidt,'^ hjv fmnbdt,c ijhbc fhbc chek.jabkb efh.jab'b rjhtkfwbf^ t&b& r=-1,
vfiby vbdbqt,'^ hjv gjhnatkbc cfiefkj rdflhfnekb uflf[hf 0.5-bc njkbf& fv itv'[dtdfib
gjhnatkbc lbcgthcbf 'b'mvbc ufyekt,ekbf^ dbyfblfy th'b fmnbdbc ufphlbcfc^ vtjht
rkt,ekj,c bubdt cblblb'& bv itv'[dtdfib^ hjltcfw afcbfyb mfqfklt,bc fvjyfut,t,b fh fhbfy
chek.jabkfl lflt,b'fl rjhtkbht,ekb^ gjhnatkbc cfiefkj rdflhfnekb uflf[hf
.jdtk'dbc yfrkt,bf gjhnatkib itvfdfkb fmnbdt,bc cfiefkj rdflhfnek uflf[ht,pt&
gjhnatkbc fv 'dbct,fc lbdthcbabrfwbfc eojlt,ty& tatmnehb lbdthcbabrfwbf tcff
gjhnatkib bct'b fmnbdt,bc lfvfnt,f^ hjvkt,cfw gjhnatkib fhct,ek fmnbdt,'fy fmd'
.dtkfpt lf,fkb rjhtkfwbf&
§ 3*. GBHJ<B"B UFYFOBKT<F LF GBHJ<B"B VF"TVFNBREHB KJLBYB
lfdeidf' (X,Y) jhufypjvbkt,bfyb lbcrhtnekb itv'[dtdb'b cblbltf&

ufdb[ctyj' gbhj,b'b fk,f'j,bc ufyvfhnt,f& hjujhw udf[cjdc^ 'e P(B)>0^ vfiby
P{ AB}
P{ A | B} = ^ (5.12)
P{B}
lfdeidf'^ hjv A [ljvbkj,f itvltub cf[bcff% A={X=x}& vfiby (5.14)-blfy vbdbqt,':
P{ X = x, B}
P{X = x|B}= ,
P{B}
'e lbcrhtnekb X itv'[dtdb'b cblblt bqt,c x1,x2,...,xr vybidytkj,t,c^ vfiby X-bc
gbhj,b'b ufyfobkt,f^ B gbhj,b'^ tojlt,f pi(B) hbw[d'f th'j,kbj,fc^ cflfw pi(B)=P{X=xi|B},
i=1,2,...,r. Pi(B), ir.
pi(B) ufyfobkt,bc rfyjybc cfiefkt,b' ufybvfhnt,f X itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc gbhj,b'b
vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbyb (egbhj,j vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbybc vcufdcfl)
r
E(X|B) =  x i p i ( B )
i =1
njkj,b'&
xdtekt,hbdb egbhj,j lbcgthcbbc fyfkjubehfl ufybvfhnt,f gbhj,b'b lbcgthcbf
hjujhw lbcrhtnekb^ fctdt eo.dtnb X itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc itv'[dtdfib%
D(X|B) = E((X–E(X|B))2|B)) = E(X2|B)–(E(X|B))2. (5.13)
d'mdf'^ (X,Y) lbcrhtnekb itv'[dtdb'b dtmnjhbc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjybf pij=P{X=xi,Y=yj},
i=1,2,...,r, j=1,2,...,s. ufydb[bkj' [ljvbkj,f B={Y=yi}. X-bc gbhj,b'b ufyfobkt,f bv gbhj,b'^
hjv Y-vf vbbqj vybidytkj,f yi, itvltuyfbhfl vjbwtvf%
Page 50 of 52
p ij
pi|j = P{X=xi|Y=yj} = , i=1,2,...,r, (5.14)
p• j
r
cflfw p•j=  pij >0, j=1,2,...,s& vfiby X-bc gbhj,b'b vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbyb bv gbhj,b'^ hjv Y=yi•
i =1
fct ufvjb'dkt,f
r
E(X|Y=yj) =  xi pi| j ,
i =1
gbhj,b'b ufyfobkt,bcf lf vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbybc wyt,t,bc ufcffpht,kfl ufydb[bkj'
rjyrhtnekb vfufkb'b&
vfufkb'b 5.6. d'mdf' Z1 lf Z2 fqybiyfdc gbhdtk lf vtjht rfvf'tkpt vjcek mekt,c^
[jkj X=Z1, Y=|Z1–Z2|. lfdflubyj' Y-bc gbhj,b'b ufyfobkt,f {X=3} gbhj,b'&
fvj[cyf&
P
P{Y=k | X=3} = k 3
P3
cfblfyfw vbdbqt,' itvltu w[hbkc%
K 0 1 2 3 4 5
P{Y=k|X=3} 1/6 2/6 2/6 1/6 0 0
hjujhw d[tlfd'^ P{Y=4|X=3}=P{Y=5|X=3}=0^ fye {X=3} gbhj,fib Y itv'[dtdb' cblbltc fh

iteskbf vbbqjc vybidytkj,t,b 4 lf 5 lf fvbnjv Y-bc gbhj,b'b ufyfobkt,f {X=3} gbhj,fib^
vbbqt,c itvltu cf[tc%
K 0 1 2 3
P{Y=k|X=3} 1/6 2/6 2/6 1/6
w[flbf^ xdty itudbskbf fv ufyfobkt,bcf'dbc hbw[db'b vf[fcbf't,kt,bc^ vf'tvf-
nbrehb kjlbybcf lf lbcgthcbbc ufvj'dkf&
E(Y|X=3)=0(1/6)+1 (2/6)+2 (2/6)+3 (1/6)=3/2,
D(Y|X=3)=0(1/6)+1(2/6)+4(2/6)+9(1/6)–(3/2)2=1/4.
'e ufvjd'dkb' lfyfhxty gbhj,b' vf'tvfnbreh kjlbyt,cfw^ cf,jkjjl udtmyt,f%
E(Y|X=1) = E(Y|X=6)=15/6, E(Y|X=2) = E(Y|X=5)=11/6, E(Y|X=3) = E(Y|X=4) = 9/6. 
vfufkb'b 5.7. lfdeidf' cfcjakjcfvtehytj ghjlemwbbc [fhbc[b [fcbf'lt,f jhb

itv'[dtdb'b cblblb'* X b.jc vjcfdkbfyj,f vjwtvek e,fypt^ [jkj Y b.jc itnfybkb cfcembc
hfjltyj,f& dbuekbc[vj'^ hjv X=(X,Y)dtmnjhbc th'j,kbdb ufyfobkt,bc rfyjybf
Y
0 0.1 0.2 0.3
X
5 0.2 0.1 0.03 0.05
6 0 0.15 0.15 0.1 (5.15)
7 0 0 0.12 0.1
ufydcdpqdhj' vjcfdkbfyj,bc cfiefkj vybidytkj,f e,fypt^ 'e vfcib itnfybk bmyf cfcembc 0.2
gbhj,b'b th'tekb&
fvj[cyf. vfhnbdb ufvj'dkt,b udfsktdc
X 5 6 7
P{X|Y=0.2} 0.1 0.5 0.4
vfufkb'b 5.8. ufvjd'dfkj' rjdfhbfwbekb vfnhbwf 5.7 vfufkb'b' ufycfpqdhekb
ufyfobkt,bc rfyjybcf'dbc&
fvj[cyf& X lf Y itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,bc vfhubyfkehb ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyt,bf

Page 51 of 52
5 6 7 0 0.1 0.2 0.3

X Y
0.38 0.4 0.22 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.25
cfblfyfw fldbkfl vbdbqt,'
EX=5.84, EY=0.16, =DX=EX2-(EX)2=0.5744, =DY=EY2-(EY)2=0.0114 .
eiefkjl (5.15) ufyfobkt,bc rfyjybc cfaesdtkpt udfmdc
EXY=1.5, ==cov(X,Y)=EXY-EXEY=0.0486
fvhbufl rjdfhbfwbekb vfnhbwff
 0.5744 0.0486
V=   .
 0.0486 0.0114 
• hjujh vjbwtvf jhufypjvbkt,bfyb lbcrhtnekb itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyb~

• hfc tojlt,f jhufypjvbkt,bfyb itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc ufyfobkt,bc aeymwbf~ hf 'dbct,t,b
fmdc fv aeymwbfc~
• hjujh vjbst,yt,f jhufypjvbkt,bfyb itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc rjvgjytynt,bc ufyfobkt,bc
rfyjyb~
• hjujh ufvjb'dkt,f jhufypjvbkt,bfyb eodtnb itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc ufyfobkt,bc
cbvrdhbdb' vfhubyfkehb ufyfobkt,bc cbvrdhbdtt,b~
• hjujh ufybcfpqdht,f jhufypjvbkt,bfyb lbcrhtnekb itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc vf'tvfnbrehb
kjlbybc dtmnjhb~
• hfc tojlt,f X lf Y itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,bc rjdfhbfwbf~ hf 'dbct,t,b fmdc rjdfhbfwbfc~
• hfc tojlt,f X lf Y itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,bc rjhtkfwbbc rjtabwbtynb~ hf 'dbct,t,b fmdc
rjhtkfwbbc rjtabwbtync ~
• hbcb njkbf yt,bcvbthb X lf Y itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,bc ]fvbc lbcgthcbf~
• hf gbhj,t,ib tojlt,f' X lf Y itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,c lfvjerblt,tkb~
• hbcb njkbf lfvjerblt,tkb itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,bc rjhtkfwbbc rjtabwbtynb~
CFDFH}BIJT<B
5.1. vjwtvekbf (X,Y) jhufypjvbkt,bfyb itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyb

Y
X –2 0 1
0 1/21 1/21 5/21
1 2/21 4/21 1/21
2 1/21 5/21 1/21
bgjdt' X lf Y itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,bc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyt,b&
5.2. lfvjerblt,tkb X lf Y itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,bc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyt,bf%

X
0 1 2 3 LF Y
1 3 4
0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.7 0.2 0.1
ffut' Z = min(X,2), U = max(2,Y), T = min(X,Y), K = max(X,Y)
itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,bc ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyb&

Y
X –1 1
–1 1/4 3/10

Page 52 of 52
1 1/5 3/20
2 1/20 1/20
bgjdt' X lf Y itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,bc rjdfhbfwbf&

Y
X –2 0
–1 0 1/15
0 1/5 4/15
2 1/3 2/15
bgjdt' X lf Y itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,bc f) rjdfhbfwbf^ ,) rjhtkfwbbc rjtabwbtynb^ u)

ufvjd'dfkj' Z=2X–Y+1 itv'[dtdb'b cblblbc vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbyb lf lbcgthcbf&

-1 0 1
X
1/9 1/3 5/9
hbcb njkbf rjdfhbfwbf X lf X2+1 cblblttc ijhbc~
5.6. wlf vlujvfhtj,c jhb ntnhftlhbc fult,fib^ hjvkbc of[yfut,c fothbf hbw[dt,b 1, 2, 3, 4.
X1-b' fqdybiyj'^ ntnhftlhpt vjcekb mekf fye hbw[db^ hjvtkbw lfdfhlybkb ntnhftlhbc
aestpt othbf^ [jkj X2-b' vtjht ntnhftlhpt vjcekb hbw[db& ffut' Y1 lfY2 itv'[dtdb'b
cblbltt,bc th'j,kbdb ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyt,b lf lfflubyt'^ lfvjerblt,tkbf 'e fhf Y1 lf Y2
itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,b^ 'e%
f) Y1 = X1, Y2 = min(X1,X2). lfflubyt' Y2-bc gbhj,b'b ufyfobkt,f {Y1=2} gbhj,b'^ ufvj'dfkt'
gbhj,b'b vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbyb bubdt gbhj,b'&
,) Y1 = |X1–X2|, Y2 = max(X1,X2). lfflubyt' Y1-bc gbhj,b'b ufyfobkt,f {Y2=3} gbhj,b'^
ufvj'dfkt' gbhj,b'b vf'tvfnbrehb kjlbyb bubdt gbhj,b'&
5.7. wlf vlujvfhtj,c jhb ntnhftlhbc fult,fib^ hjvkbc of[yfut,c fothbf hbw[dt,b 1, 2, 3, 4.
X1-b' fqdybiyj'^ ntnhftlhpt vjcekb mekf fye hbw[db^ hjvtkbw lfdfhlybkb ntnhftlhbc
aestpt othbf^ [jkj X2-b' vtjht ntnhftlhpt vjcekb hbw[db& ffut' Y1 lfY2 itv'[dtdb'b
cblbltt,bc th'j,kbdb lf vfhubyfkehb ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyt,b^ 'e
f) Y1 = X1+X2 lf Y2 = |X1–X2 | , ,) Y1 = X1 lf Y2 = | X1–X2 |
lfflubyt'^ lfvjerblt,tkbf 'e fhf Y1 lf Y2 itv'[dtdb'b cblbltt,b& bgjdt' itv'[dtdb'b
cblbltt,bc vfhubyfkehb ufyfobkt,bc rfyjyt,b&
5.8. d'mdf' T=2X–2Y+Z. bgjdt' ET lf DT^ 'e: EX=2, EY=1, EZ=2, DX=9, cov [X,Y]=5, DY=25,
cov[X,Z]=7, DZ=16, cov[Z,Y]=8.
5.9. d'mdf'^ T=–2X+Y–Z. bgjdt' ET lf DT^ 'e: EX=–2, EY=1, EZ=–3, DX=9, cov[X,Y]=9, DY=16,
cov[X,Z]=8, DZ=36, cov[Z,Y]=5.
5.10. d'mdf' T=-3X+2Y-Z. bgjdt' ET lf DT^ 'e: EX=3, EY=-1, EZ=-3, DX=4,  [X,Y]=0,7, DY=9,
cov[X,Z]=-4, DZ=16, cov[Z,Y]=0.
5.11. d'mdf' T = 2X–Y–2Z. bgjdt' ET lf DT^ 'e: EX=2, EY=3, EZ=1, DX=9, DY=16, DZ=16,
cov[X,Y]=7.2, cov[X,Z]=4.8, cov[Z,Y]=-3.2
5.12. d'mdf' T=X–Y-3Z. bgjdt' ET lf DT^ 'e: EX=7, EY=4, EZ=1, DX=4, DY=9 DZ=16, [X,Y]=0.5,
[X,Z]=0, [Z,Y]=-0.7.


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Page 1 of 52

ზუსტ და საბუნებისმეტყველო მეცნიერებათა

შესავალ ლექციათა კურსი

პროფ: გია სირბილაძე

ლექციათა კური – „დისკრეტული ალბათობა“ საბაკალავრო პროგრამა 1

"FDB I. ITV"{DTDB"B TMCGTHBVTYNB .

"FDB II. LBCRHTNEKB ITV"{DTDB"B CBLBLTT<B........................25

"FDB I I I*. JHUFYPJVBKT<BFYB ITV"{DTDB"B CBLBLTT<B......45

2 ლექციათა კური – „დისკრეტული ალბათობა“ საბაკალავრო პროგრამა

შესავალი: ადამიანის ინტელეტს გააჩნია საოცარი თვისება: არაზუსტი, არასაკმარისი და

"FDB I. ITV"{DTDB"B TMCGTHBVTYNB .

§ 1. ITV"{DTDB"B TMCGTHBVTYNB LF TKTVTYNFHEK {LJVBKJ<F"F CBDHWT

2.1 vfufkb'bcf'dbc tktvtynfhek [ljvbkj,f'f cbdhwt bmyt,f

ლექციათა კური – „დისკრეტული ალბათობა“ საბაკალავრო პროგრამა 3

§ 2. {LJVBKJ<F& JGTHFWBT<B {LJVBKJ<T<PT

tktvtynfhekb [ljvbkj,t,bc hfbvt th'j,kbj,fc itlutybk [ljvbkj,fc^ fy e,hfkjl

cbvhfdkt'f 'tjhbbc tyf fk,f'j,bc 'tjhbbc tyf

 eybdthcfkehb cbdhwt fewbkt,tkb [ljvbkj,f

 wfhbtkb cbvhfdkt iteskt,tkb [ljvbkj,f

A-c cfobyffqvltuj [ljvbkj,f

AB A cbvhfdkt itlbc B-ib A [ljvbkj,f bodtdc B-c

A lf B [ljvbkj,f'f AB ]fvb (fye ufth'bfyt,f) tojlt,f bct'b  tktvtynfhekb

4 ლექციათა კური – „დისკრეტული ალბათობა“ საბაკალავრო პროგრამა

A lf B [ljvbkj,f'f AB yfvhfdkb (fye 'fyfrdt'f) tojlt,f bct'b -t,bc th'j,kbj,fc^

AB A\B AB AB=

yf[& 2.1. dtybc lbfuhfvt,b

d'mdf'^ itv'[dtdb' tmcgthbvtynbc n-]th xfnfht,bc itltufl hfbvt A [ljvbkj,f n(A)-

ლექციათა კური – „დისკრეტული ალბათობა“ საბაკალავრო პროგრამა 5

fk,f'j,bc cnfnbcnbreh ufyvfhnt,f

vjdb.dfyj' t&o& fk,f'j,bc rkfcbrehb ufyvfhnt,f& 'e tktvtynfhek [ljvbkj,f'f

6 ლექციათა კური – „დისკრეტული ალბათობა“ საბაკალავრო პროგრამა

hfw (2.5)-bc uf'dfkbcobyt,b' udfsktdc^ hjv

'e tktvtynfhek [ljvbkj,f'f cbdhwt  fhf'dkflbf^ vfiby fk,f'j,t,b vbtotht,f fhf

ლექციათა კური – „დისკრეტული ალბათობა“ საბაკალავრო პროგრამა 7

§ 5. {LJVBKJ<F"F }FVBC FK<F"J<F

fk,f'j,bc P3 'dbct,f^ itvltuyfbhfl pjufllt,f% yt,bcvbthb A lf B [ljvbkj,t,bcf'dbc

P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(AB). (2.8)

§ 6. VWBHT FK<F"J<BC VMJYT {LJVBKJ<BC UFY{JHWBTKT<BC ITESKT<KJ<BC

lfdeidf' A [ljvbkj,bc fk,f'j,f vwbhtf (f[kjcff yek'fy)& lfrdbhdt,f'f [fyuhskbdb

vwbht fk,f'j,bc vmjyt [ljvbkj,bc ufy[jhwbtkt,bc iteskt,kj,bc ghbywbgb:

fvudfhfl^ 'e A [ljvbkj,bc fk,f'j,f vwbhtf (f[kjcff yek'fy)^ vfiby cfobyffqvltuj

'e itv'[dtdb'b [ljvbkj,bc fk,f'j,f f[kjcff th''fy^ vfiby ghfmnbrekfl itudbskbf

8 ლექციათა კური – „დისკრეტული ალბათობა“ საბაკალავრო პროგრამა

§ 7. GBHJ<B"B FK<F"J<F^ {LJVBKJ<F"F YFVHFDKBC FK<F"J<F

ufydb[bkj' itvltub vfufkb'b.

gbhj,b'b fk,f'j,bcf'dbc fuht'dt vbqt,ekbf fqybidyf PB(A). gbhj,b' fk,f'j,fc

P(AB) = P(B)P(A|B) (2.10)

[ljvbkj,f'f yfvhfdkbc fk,f'j,f

(2.11) ajhvekf ufvjb.tyt,f [ljvbkj,f'f fk,f'j,t,bc ufycfpqdhbcf'dbc^ hjltcfw

A lf B [ljvbkj,t,c tojlt,f lfvjerblt,tkb^ 'e

P(AB) = P(A)P(B). (2.12)

bv itv'[dtdfib^ hjwf P(A)>0, P(B)>0^ (2.8) trdbdfktynehbf jhb 'fyfafhlj,bcf%

P(A|B) = P(A), P(B|A) = P(B), (2.13)

fye th'b [ljvbkj,bc vj[ltyf fh wdkbc vtjhbc fk,f'j,fc&

ლექციათა კური – „დისკრეტული ალბათობა“ საბაკალავრო პროგრამა 9

fvhbufl^ lflt,b'b fk,f'j,bc vmjyt A lf B [ljvbkj,t,bcf'dbc lfvjerblt,kj,bc

cfvb A1, A2 lf A3 [ljvbkj,bc lfvjerblt,kj,f ybiyfdc^ hjv bcbyb o.dbk-o.dbkfl

§ 9. UFVHFDKT<BC GHBYWBGB^ LTYLHJUHFVF

[ibhfl tktvtynfhek [ljvbkj,f'f cbdhwbcf lf [ljvbkj,bc fk,f'j,bc ufycfpqdhf

10 ლექციათა კური – „დისკრეტული ალბათობა“ საბაკალავრო პროგრამა

§ 10. O>J<F^ UFLFYFWDKT<F^ }EA"T<F

d'mdf'^ vjwtvekbf n ufyc[dfdt,ekb j,btmnb lf xdty udcehc r vf'ufyb th' [fppt

ლექციათა კური – „დისკრეტული ალბათობა“ საბაკალავრო პროგრამა 11