IDirect TechnicalOutlook 2023

Research Analysts:
1
Nifty’s Decade: CY30 Target @50000
Technical Outlook: Nifty CMP - 18420
CY30 Target @ 50000 CY23 Target @ 21400
 India’s decade, ride with conviction  Prognosis for CY23
2023
Strategy –PICK
History does not repeat but it rhymes: Indian equities are likely to display the The Nifty target for CY23 is placed at 21400 while strong support is placed at 16200
same rhythm that the US and Nikkei did in 1990-2000 and 1980-1990, levels. Our prognosis is well supported by:
MOMENTUM
respectively, i.e. delivering a decadal move of 5x on headline indices. Our
prognosis of various Technical studies leads us to the conclusion that the Nifty is a) Seasonality: Over the past four decades, third year returns of each decade
poised to reach towards 50000 by CY30. More so, the performance of 2021 and have been positive with median of 18%. CY22 projection based on this cycle of
2022 further adds strength to our argument given the Nifty is mimicking our 18900 has been achieved, adding credence to the cycle study. Similar target
forecast trajectory. What is more exciting is that we are entering 2023, which, as from a CMP of 18420 projects target of 21720. Additionally, 70% of the times a
Technical
per decadal studies, has turned out to be a strong year pre-election year has generated positive returns
Such long term trends often have to navigate through bouts of volatility. For an b) Conventional chart work: Breakout from 13 month range (18300-15200)
instance, in our CY18 strategy report we projected Nifty @ 19000 by 2022. Nifty projecting 21400
achieved our target despite Covid related volatility c) Long term breadth thrust: Over the past two decades, on eight out of 10
i) Decadal cycle: Since inception in 1979, the Sensex gained average 4x in each occasions, 60% of Nifty 500 constituents, rising above 200 day moving average
decade. From CY20 close of 13981 (Nifty) similar projection leads to ~56,000 (DMA) has triggered average 25% returns in the Nifty in subsequent 12 months
ii) Relative ratio breakout against MSCI world: In each of the three earlier  Mid/small caps to outperform large caps
instances, ratio breakout was followed by the index gaining at least 3x post Relative outperformance of midcap universe is in mid-cycle of a multi year bull
breakout (current breakout in May 2022 at 16585, projects 50,000 for the Nifty in phase. We expect this outperformance to get further amplified over the next couple
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

the current decade) of years, and gain around 20% in CY23.
Globally, across the US, Europe and Asian markets, similar ratio breakouts over Sectors in focus: BFSI, Auto, PSU, Capital Goods & Infra, Telecom while IT provides
past four decades, were followed by minimum 3x returns over the years favourable risk reward
Nifty CY30 projection based on decadal Cycle *CY22 Performance - Recommendations: 9 Strike rate: 89% Average gain: 22%
50% 60000
In line with projection for CY22, Nifty 40%
58845 Techno-Funda Top Picks Time Frame: 12 Months
40% approached 2nd year target of 18900 50000 Scrip I-Direct Code Market Cap Buying Range Target Upside (in %)
Projected Returns in %
50471
Larsen & Toubro LARTOU 3,07,072 2110-2185 2,520 16
30% 23% 40000
18% 18% 19% 17% Ambuja Cements AMBCE 1,12,169 545-572 660 17
15% 15% 37971
Nifty
20% 35961 30000 Bosch BOSLIM 51,696 16800-17800 22,000 26

18887 30594 30808
10% 17354 25784 20000 Federal Bank FEDBAN 28,936 132-140 168 23
22378 1%
18891 -5% Sundaram Finance SUNFIN 26,735 2290-2420 2,890 21
0% 16480 10000
Bajaj Electricals BAJELE 13,075 1110-1160 1,440 26
-10% 0 KEC International KECIN 12,270 460-490 598 25
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 Mishra Dhatu Nigam MISDHA 4,215 215-230 295 31
Year Techno Electric & Eng TECEEC 3,502 305-320 410 30
Nifty Projection Actual Performance Decadal Cycle Median Returns (%)
* Market cap as per BSE as on 19th December 2022
Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research

December 19, 2022 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 1
Deciphering decadal cycle of Indian equities
• Since inception in 1979, the Sensex returns for each of the four decades has been 4x (median value). The study helps investors to form a larger perspective
and stay the course during times of turbulence. As can be seen in the below chart, despite a host of negativity around geopolitical worries along with higher
MOMENTUM PICK
inflation and interest rates, the Nifty stayed the course by achieving its projected target of 18900 for CY22
• Projection for current decade (CY21-30) on the basis of CY20 close (Nifty:13982) works out to around 55,000
• Empirically, third and fourth year of the decade has always been positive with acceleration in returns to higher teens (median values)
• It is worth noting that such returns do not come in a linear fashion and corrections of around 20% along the way have always been a buying opportunity
Nifty CY30 projection based on decadal Cycle Nifty @ 55k

50% 60000
Sensex Decadal Cycle
40% by CY30
In line with projection for CY22, Nifty 58845 8.0 5.4 5.3 6
40% approached 2nd year target of 18900 50000
Projected Returns in %
50471 7.0
4.5 5
Returns in No. of times

30% 23% 40000 6.0
18% 18% 19% 17% 4
15% 15% 37971 5.0
Nifty
20% 35961 30000
Median
18887 30594 30808 4.0 Nifty in CY20 3
10% 17354 25784 20000 7.1 4.5
22378 1% 3.0 @ 13982
18891 5.2 2
0% 16480 -5% 10000 2.0 3.8

2.3 1
1.0
-10% 0 1.3
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 0.0 0
1981-90 1991-00 2001-10 2011-20 2021-30
Year
Nifty Projection Actual Performance Decadal Cycle Median Returns (%) Returns in No. of times Projected Target Median
Decade / Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1981-1990 54% 4% 7% 7% 94% -1% -16% 51% 17% 35%
1991-2000 82% 37% 28% 17% -21% -1% 19% -16% 64% -21%
2001-2010 -18% 4% 73% 13% 42% 47% 47% -52% 81% 17%
2011-2020 -25% 26% 9% 30% -5% 2% 28% 6% 14% 16%
Positive Instances 50% 100% 100% 100% 50% 50% 75% 50% 100% 75%
2021-2030 2021 2022 Historically, in all decades second, third,
Returns 22% 7%
fourth, ninth year have posted positive
returns of 15%, 18%, 15%, 40%,
Average 23% 17% 29% 17% 28% 12% 19% -3% 44% 12%
respectively (median values)
Median 18% 15% 18% 15% 19% 1% 23% -5% 40% 17%

December 19, 2022 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research Click here to go to top 2
History of global mega bull trends
Dow Jones Index vs MSCI World Index Globally similar ratio breakouts resulted into minimum 3x returns in subsequent 6 years 16
* For details please refer Appendix
MOMENTUM PICK
8
5x Breakout from multi year underperformance lead to 5x rally in US

market in next nine years
4
Hang Seng Index vs MSCI World Index 32
16
3x
4x 8
4x
On three occasions breakout from ratio line garnered minimum 3x 4
returns in four years 2

Nikkei Index vs MSCI World Index
80
5x Seven years long consolidation breakout resulted into 5x returns in 40

following eight years 20
10
Dax Index vs MSCI World Index 8
4
4x Historically, post multi year breakout from ratio line average 3x returns
seen over next 6 years
2
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History of mega bull trends and projection for CY30
Major Bull markets Since 1980 Target for CY30 Sensex @ 1,65,000 159744
Rat io Breakout Dat e Value Resurns in Nifty @ 50,000
MOMENTUM PICK
No. of t ime
May 2022 79872
From To From To
Feb-81 Feb-86 160 664 4 39936
21206 55566
Jun-90 Apr-92 850 4,546 5 19968
Nov-04 Jan-08 6,234 21,206 3
(Nifty 16585)
9984
May-22 ? 55,566 1,65,000 3
4546 4992
6234
Sensex- Weekly chart 3x 2496
 Over the past four decades, there have been three mega bull trends 1248
664 in India, with minimum 3x returns post signal
624
850  Signal is captured on rare breakout on relative ratio of Sensex vs.
5x MSCI World 312
 Current signal occurred in May 2022 (Nifty: 16600) thereby 156
160 projecting 50,000 by CY30
4x 78

Sensex vs MSCI World Index 24
Current breakout suggesting that the Indian market is in an early stage of multi year
outperformance with minimum projected target on Nifty ~50000 by CY30 12
1.5
0.75
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MOMENTUM PICK
Zeroing down on CY23

Seasonality favours bulls in CY23…
Third year of decadal cycle
MOMENTUM PICK
• We have highlighted the Decadal cycle earlier in the report
• The projection for the first two years of the decade has panned out in line with the decadal cycle study
100%
• As we enter 2023, the third year have always produced positive returns with a median of 18%, highlighting bulls are in charge in the
third year of the decadal cycle
w
80%
73%
70%
60%

50%
Returns in %
40%
28%
30% Nifty @ 21500
18%
20%
7% 9%
10% Median 18%
0%
1983 1993 2003 2013 2023
3rd year of decadal cycle

Nifty @ 21400 in CY23 as per conventional methods….
Nifty - Weekly bar chart

Target for CY23 @ 21400
MOMENTUM PICK
Projection of 21400 for CY23 based on:
 Breakout above 13 month’s consolidation (18300-15200) signals shift to
higher orbit with projected target around 21400 in CY23
 Breadth thrust 18604 18350
18096
Support
@16200
16747
8%
15431
18% 15184
14151

Key support @ 16200 as it is:
8% • 80% retracement of last six months up move
11794 (15184-18887)
• 100 week’s EMA at 16270
• In the last two decades magnitude of average
9889 10790 secondary corrections are around 15%, which
also projects strong support around 16050
9%
8807
11% We believe the up move towards 21400 would be in a non-liner manner. The corrective declines
7511 should not be seen as negative instead should be utilised to build long term portfolio.

Validated by breadth thrust
Nifty - Weekly chart 25600
MOMENTUM PICK
• Arrows on the Nifty chart point to initial dates when the breadth indicator (percentage of
stocks above 200 DMA) rose above 60%
12800
80% • In eight out of 10 instances over past two decades, 12 month forward returns have been
in double digits with average of 25%
6400
Nift y For war d R et ur n Nift y For war d R et ur n

Sr . No Dat e 12M % Sr . No Dat e 12M % 3200
1 May-03 52 6 Sep-12 1
2 May-04 16 7 Dec-13 36
3 Aug-06 36 8 Mar-16 23
1600
4 May-09 20 9 Jan-20 10
5 Feb-12 2 10 Aug-20 51
11 Nov-22 ?
Aver ag e R et ur n ( in %) 25 800

Nifty 500 % of stocks above 200 DMA In Nifty 500 percentage of stocks above 200 DMA is sustaining above 60. Historically, it has led to acceleration of up
move with success rate of 80% (eight out of 10 instances) in last two decades 100
80
60
40
20
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Benchmark to perform well in Pre-Election year…
Union election cycle
MOMENTUM PICK
Election cycle is a major phenomena in the equity markets. It is divided into four parts - election year, post- election year, midterm years
and pre-election year. 70%
Indian equity markets have also highlighted certain characteristics depending upon the election cycle that is currently prevalent.
CY23 being a pre-election year will have a significant bearing on sentiments in equity markets. It has been observed that benchmark
indices have performed relatively well in pre-election year. Over the past four decades, 70% of
the time the index posted positive
The index has generated positive return in seven out of the 10 instances. Out of the three negative return instances, two were during returns in pre-election year
1995 and 1998 when there was an unstable political scenario in India while the other one was during the Global Financial crises of 2008
Sensex return on Pre-Election Year

90%
73%

60% 51%
35%
Returns in %
30% 19%
7% 9% 6%
0%
-30% -16%
-21%
-60% -52%
1983 1988 1990 1995 1997 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018
Pre-Election Years

Midcap/small cap to outperform large caps
1.4 1.4
BSE 500 vs. BSE 100
MOMENTUM PICK
1.35 1.35
1.3 1.3
2x
1.25 1.25
200 weeks
4x moving average

1.2 1.2
• The BSE 500 vs BSE 100 ratio, rising implies outperformance of broader market against large caps
1.15 • Historically, bullish crossover above long term 200 week’s moving average leads to acceleration of upward momentum 1.15
• Such crossover lasts for nearly four years leading to a multifold rally
• Currently, we are in the middle of this cycle, reinforcing our multi year bullish stance
1.1 1.1
1.05 1.05
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EMAVG (200) BSE500 Index / BSE100 Index

MOMENTUM PICK
Top Picks for CY23

Stock selection: Based on categorisation…
High Relative strength Multi-Year Breakout Top Picks for CY23
MOMENTUM PICK
• Stocks with high relative strength that are expected to • Under owned stocks and sectors, which remained out of  Larsen & Toubro
outperform the benchmark
• Strong uptrends on longer degree charts
favour over several years with now prices breaking out of  Ambuja Cements
multi year highs with significant volumes
 Bosch
Sectors  Federal Bank
Sectors
BFSI, Capital goods, Defence, Telecom PSU, Auto & Auto ancillaries, Hospitality  Sundaram Finance
 Bajaj Electricals
 KEC International
Commodity and Currency Outlook 


Mishra Dhatu Nigam
Techno Electric & Engineering

Bargain Buy Market Performer • We have sliced the NSE
universe of stocks into four
• Stocks placed around major support and currently out of categories based on time
favour • Stocks, which are expected to perform in line with
overall market movement tested technical parameters
• Oversold on medium term charts and provides good
risk/reward set up • Primary trend is up but lag on relative strength score covering classic patterns,
• Primary structural trend is up relative strength ranking,
Fibonacci price projection
Sectors Sectors techniques, moving averages
Pharma& Chemicals, IT, Consumer Discretionary, Chemicals, Retail, Consumer Staples, Metals and oscillators
Insurance, Oil & Gas, Infra • We believe that top two
buckets of high relative
strength and multi year
breakouts provide highest
Click here for Stock details… potential of outperformance
Source: ICICI Direct Research
Stock selection: Based on categorisation…
High Relative strength Multi-Year Breakout
MOMENTUM PICK
Auto and Auto Ancillary : Escorts , M&M, Maruti, Gabriel Auto and Auto Ancillary : Apollo Tyres , Bosch, Bharat Forge, Eicher Motors,
BFSI : Axis Bank , SBIN, Indian Bank Mahindra CIE , Rico Auto
Capital Goods : ABB, ACE, Kabra Extrusion, L&T, Siemens, Timken BFSI : Bank of Baroda, Federal Bank , CUB, M&M Finance
Consumption : Britannia Industries, Trent Capital Goods : HBL Power, KEC, Sanghvi Movers, TWL, Techno Electric & Eng
Defence : BEL, BDL, HAL, Mazagon Dock Consumption : ITC
Infra & Logistics : Ambuja Cements, JK Lakshmi Cement, Adani Ports Defence : Cochin Shipyard, Midhani
Metal : JSW Steel, JSL, Ratnamani Metals Metal : VSSL
Pharma & Chemicals : Sun Pharma, Torrent Pharma, Aster DM, Vinati Organics, PSU : RCF, Concor, RVNL, REC, IRCON
Real Estate : Phoenix Mills, Prestige Estates Real Estate : DLF
Technology : KPIT Technologies, Affle, Redington Telecom : Tejas Network
Telecom : Bharti Airtel Hospitality : EIH Ltd, VIP, LemonTree
Commodity and Currency Outlook
Hospitality : Indian Hotel
Others : Adani Enterprises, Shoppers Stop, KKCL

Bargain Buy Market Performer
Auto and Auto Ancillary : Balkrishna Industries Auto and Auto Ancillary : Tata Motors
BFSI : IndusInd Bank, Sundaram Finance BFSI : HDFC Bank , HDFC Life
Consumption : Havells, Bajaj Electricals , Voltas Consumption : Asian Paints, Titan, United Spirits, Radico Khaitan, Supreme
Infra & Logistics : KNR Construction, NCC Industries, Polycab
Oil & Gas : ONGC, IOC Infra & Logistics : UltraTech Cements, JK Cement
Metal : Hindalco, Tata Steel, HEG Real Estate : Brigade, Oberoi Realty
Pharma & Chemicals : Indoco remedies, Caplin Point, SRF Technology : Infosys, TCS
Technology : Persistent, Coforge Telecom : Reliance, Tata Communications
Telecom : Sterlite Technologies Others : Thermax, Sumitomo Chemical, Tata Chemical
Others : Rallies, Zee, Tata Power, Triveni Engineering
* Stocks highlighted in Orange Colour with Bold are our CY23 recommendations. Stocks are listed in Sector and Alphabetical order
Note: The list of stocks listed above is selected on the basis of certain statistical and technical models. This report recommends only 9 stocks and other stocks mentioned are only
of analysis purpose. Click here to go to top
Larsen & Toubro (LARTOU): Secular uptrend to get bolstered
Technical Outlook Rec. Price 2110.00-2185.00 Target 2520.00 Upside 16%

• The BSE capital good index
Quarterly Bar Chart
MOMENTUM PICK
extended its uptrend after coming
Target @ 2520
out of 13 years of hibernation in
CY21 exhibiting strength. Our A resolute breakout above rising supply line joining highs of the
preferred pick within the large cap last 12 years signals acceleration of the up move 1990
capital goods space is Larsen &
Toubro as it has logged a resolute 1607 Key support
breakout above 12 year’s long @ 1870
rising supply line joining highs 1460
since CY10 (| 1043) highlighting 1043 984 50 Quarter
acceleration of up move
EMA
• Post breakout the uptrend is well
defined by stronger rallies and 661
shallow retracements, key 451
ingredient of structural bull phase Quarterly RSI has recently generated a buy signal and is seen

• We expect the stock price to head resolving above CY19 highs
towards | 2520 levels as it is the
measuring implication of the recent
broad range (| 1990-1460) Recommendation initiated on i-click to gain at 14:29 on December 19, 2022 Time Frame: 12 Months
Fundamental Outlook
• Larsen & Toubro (L&T) is India’s largest engineering & construction (E&C) company, with interest in EPC projects, hi-tech manufacturing and services. The
company primarily operates in infrastructure, heavy engineering, defence engineering, power, hydrocarbon, services business segments
• With a pick-up in capex cycle and diversified segmental exposure, we believe L&T is best capex play in the large cap capital goods segment. The company
is optimistic about meeting its 15% growth guidance for revenue and order inflow in FY23. L&T has targeted revenues and order inflow growth at a CAGR
of 15% and 14%, respectively, over FY21-26 with a consolidated RoE of 18%
• Focus on asset monetisation to further strengthen the balance sheet and improve return ratios. L&T has strong b/s, controlled working capital and strong
cash generation. In the medium term, with order backlog of | 370000 crore coupled with improving margin profile and literally net debt free standalone
balance sheet, we expect strong earnings CAGR of 16.2% over FY22-24E. The key concern on L&T metro projects is also in the resolution stage, which will
further lighten up the balance sheet and lead to a rerating, going ahead. We value L&T at | 2355 on an SoTP basis
Source: Spider Software, ICICI Direct Research
Ambuja Cements (AMBCE): On cusp of consolidation breakout

• Nifty Infra index hit the new high
Weekly Bar Chart
MOMENTUM PICK
last month after 13 month’s
consolidation and Ambuja has been Target @ 660
key outperformer, with high relative
strength 585
• Key observation has been that

stock has given strong breakout in
442 480 Key support
September from large rounding
bottom and now placed on the @ 470
cusp of past two month’s
consolidation signalling inherent
strength and provides entry Rising 20-
274
opportunity week EMA
• We expect the stock price to extend

its bull trend and head towards Weekly MACD has converged with its 9 period average indicating contraction in
| 660 in a gradual manner as momentum, however remains in up trending trajectory
projected based on past 10 week’s
trading range (585-480)
Recommendation initiated on i-click to gain at 14:32 on December 19, 2022 Time Frame: 12 Months
Fundamental Outlook
 Ambuja Cement (now Adani group conglomerate) is a large cement player with capacity of 31.5 MT spread across North (35%), South (24%), West
(~20%), East (~21%) in India. It has a large marketing set-up & pan-India presence. The new management plans to increase consolidated capacity to
~140 MT in the next five years (i.e. at 16% CAGR). Keeping this in mind, the new board has approved fund infusion of | 20,000 crore by issuing
warrants to promoter entity on a preferential basis
 The company is currently investing | 3,500 crore for expansion of 7.0 MT GUs across their existing units at Sankrail and Farakka and at a greenfield
location at Barh, in Bihar, supported by a 3.2 MT brownfield clinker expansion at existing integrated plant in Bhatapara, Chhattisgarh. This will enhance
its cement capacity by ~8.5 MT to 40 MT by Q4CY24. It has a strong balance sheet. Also, the group’s exposure into energy and logistics will help them
to improve cost dynamics and gain supply chain efficiencies
 The termination of agreement with Holcim for payment of technology and know-how fees would lead to instant cost savings of 1% of revenues from
Q4CY22 onwards
Bosch (BOSLIM): Turnaround after multiyear
underperformance…
Technical Outlook Rec. Price 16800-17800 Target 22000.00 Upside 26%
• The auto ancillary space continued
Quarterly Bar Chart
MOMENTUM PICK
its primary up trend. Technically, 27990
we are constructive on Bosch,
which we expect to outperform as it Breakout above long term supply line joining highs 25240
since CY15 signaling turnaround after long period of Target @
has generated a breakout above 22000
long term supply line joining highs under performance
since CY15 (| 27990) signalling
turnaround after a long period of
underperformance Key support
• The stock, during CY22, has @ 14800
consolidated and formed a higher
base above 13500 that is 50% 50 Quarter 7850
retracement of the previous major EMA
up move (| 7850-19250)
Quarterly MACD has generated a buy signal

• We expect the stock to head higher
towards | 22000 in coming quarters
as it is the 80% retracement of
CY17-20 decline (25240-7850)
Fundamental Outlook
• Bosch Ltd (Bosch) is a technology leader providing solutions in automotive, industrial technology, consumer goods, energy & building technology. Mobility
solutions (automotive products) comprised ~85% of FY22 sales with share of Business Beyond Mobility pegged at ~15%. Within mobility, it has a large
presence in diesel-dependent vehicles (SUVs, CVs) & tractors
• We like Bosch given its leadership positioning in powertrain technology with parent supported ready solutions for Flex Fuel, BS VI phase II transition, EVs
and hybrids. The company is poised to benefit from industry tailwinds in the form of healthy volume growth, diesel powertrain gaining traction
domestically and incremental role to play amid more stringent emission control norms (BS-VI phase 2 and beyond)
• Amid strong focus on increasing domestic sales with underlying focus on exports (~9-12% of sales), we build in 18.2% sales CAGR over FY22-24E.
Operating leverage gains and localisation push is seen aiding margin improvement to 14.5% by FY24E with consequent PAT growth pegged at 23.1% over
FY22-24E. With cash positive b/s and capital efficient business model, we have a positive view on the company
Federal Bank (FEDBAN): Changing orbit…

• The banking sector has been
Monthly Bar Chart
MOMENTUM PICK
spearheading the ongoing bull run,
we expect it to continue its Breakout above five years range signals start of a new bull phase Target @ 168
outperformance as the Bank Nifty
has recently generated a breakout
above its 14 months range. Federal 127 129
Bank is our top pick among midcap
banking stocks
109
• The stock has recently generated a Key support
resolute breakout above its last five @ 108
84
years range (| 127-36) as it resolved
above CY17 highs (| 127) signalling Higher base at 12
a start of a new bull phase months EMA
• We expect thrust from the recent 36

Monthly RSI is seen diverging from its nine periods average

breakout to lead the share price to
| 168 in coming quarters as it is the
price parity with the previous up
move (| 84-129) as projected from
September 2022 low of | 109 Recommendation initiated on i-click to gain at 14:34 on December 19, 2022 Time Frame: 12 Months
Fundamental Outlook
• Federal Bank is an old private sector bank based out of Kerala with 1305 branches and 1876 ATM across various states. Federal bank has 1.24% market
share in advances with balanced loan mix between retail: wholesale of 54:46
• Robust credit growth in high teens (15-17% CAGR in FY23-24E) and deposits growth in early teens to aid business momentum. Partnerships with fintechs
to strengthen liabilities base
• Effective transmission of rate hikes, lower incremental slippages and focus on high yielding products (CV/CE, micro, credit cards & personal loans) to aid
margins expected at 3.2-3.3% in FY23-24E
• Sustainable business growth, steady margins and credit cost at <1% to enable healthy RoA of ~1.25% in FY23-24E. Hence, we remain positive on the
stock
Sundaram Finance (SUNFIN): Falling channel breakout
indicates resumption of uptrend…
• The BFSI space has outperformed
Monthly Bar Chart
MOMENTUM PICK
in CY22 while NBFCs are now
catching up amid signs of interest Target @ 2890
Breakout above falling channel signals 2868
rates nearing its peak. Sundaram
resumption of up move
Finance’s share price has given a
falling channel breakout signalling
end of its 15 month corrective 2100
phase and resumption of uptrend Key support
• From a structural point of view, the @ 1950
share price has retraced its 2020-21 1555
rally (982-2868) by 61.8% over 15
months indicating slower
982
retracement that augurs well for
long term price structure

• We expect the share price to
gradually head towards | 2890
which is its CY21 high and remains
good proxy for CV financing space
Fundamental Outlook
• Sundaram Finance (SFL) is a Chennai-based financial group with a presence in auto finance, home finance, asset management and general insurance.
Major value is derived from its vehicle financing business with AUM of | 30,552 crore as of June 2022, though non-auto business are profitable and with
optimistic outlook
• Improving industry outlook coupled with focus on gaining market share to aid business growth. Further, expanding geographic footprint in non-southern
regions and growing new areas of focus – lending to MSMEs, small NBFCs and leasing business will propel disbursements ahead
• Margins could remain volatile in near term. However, improvement in operating leverage and lower credit cost is seen aiding RoA ahead of 2.5% in FY23-
24E. Sustained business growth in subsidiaries to further aid valuations. Thus, we remain positive on the stock

Bajaj Electricals (BAJELE): Risk reward favourable at key
support…
• The BSE Consumer durables index
Monthly Bar Chart
MOMENTUM PICK
has been consolidating in CY22 1588
after strong rally of CY20-21, thus Buying demand is seen emerging from the key support area thus offers fresh Target @ 1440
forming a higher base. Within the entry opportunity with favorable risk reward set up
space, we like Bajaj Electricals with
favourable risk-reward Change of Polarity previous
resistance acting as support
• The stock is currently placed near Key support
the key support area of | 1000-1100 705 858 @ 930
as it is the confluence of rising 12
months EMA (currently at | 1125)
and 50% retracement CY20-21 rally 345 Shallow retracement
(| 263-1588) and higher base at
• We expect the stock to resume up 263 12 months EMA
move and head higher towards

| 1440 in coming quarters as it is
the 80% retracement of entire
previous decline (| 1588-858)
Fundamental Outlook
• Bajaj Electricals (BEL) is a leading player in the consumer durables space with its product portfolio spanning across electrical appliances, fans & lightings. It
is among the top three players in the lighting segment and has a leadership position in mixer grinders, water heaters and electric irons category
• Despite pandemic led challenges and supply concerns, BEL’s consumer products (CP) segment has grown at a CAGR of 11.1% over FY19-22 led by new
product launches and dealer expansion into new geographies. Going forward, we believe BEL’s CP revenue to grow at a CAGR of 14% over FY22-24E led
by new product launches (into lightings and appliances segments), expansion of its sales & distribution channel and market share gains in its key product
segments. On the margin front, we build in EBITDA margin expansion of ~330 bps over FY22-24E led by improving sales mix and easing raw material
prices
• In order to streamline its business structure, BEL plans to demerge its low margin engineering & project business by the end of FY23E. We believe strong
growth in the consumer product segment, robust balance sheet condition and restructuring of business profile will benefit the company in the long run
KEC International (KECIN): Triangular consolidation breakout…

• Nifty Infra index hit a new high after
Weekly Bar Chart
MOMENTUM PICK
previous year’s multi year breakout
indicating structural uptrend. In the Target @ 598
power infra space, one of our top 549
recommendations is KEC, which is
resolving out of a triangular
consolidation pattern of past two
years indicating resumption of
uptrend 358 Key support
• Structurally, share price has formed 352 @ 390
a strong base around 350-370 zone, Rising 52
which was earlier breakout level week EMA
and rising 52-week average
• We expect the stock price to extend

its up trend towards | 598, which is Over past few months volume spikes indicate renewed interest in the stock
123.6% external retracement of which was missing over past 2-3 years
CY22 decline that coincides with
triangle breakout implication
Fundamental Outlook
• KEC International (KEC) is one of the EPC majors in key infrastructure sectors such as power T&D, railways, civil, urban infrastructure, solar, smart
infrastructure, oil & gas pipelines and cables. A strategic shift in portfolio from T&D to non-T&D (13% contribution in FY16 increased to 50% in FY22). T&D
diversified across countries with entry in ~20 countries in last five years
• KEC’s SAE business’ legacy EPC projects will get executed by Q3FY23, which will arrest losses and help to improve margin. Also, execution of new orders
with good margins will come into play in H2FY23
• KEC over the past years has significantly de-risked its business from a core T&D player to an all-round infra player with sizeable scalability happening in the
railways and the civil segment. Non T&D business is now almost 50% of the overall revenue pie. With strong backlog of | 27569 crore with L1 orders worth
~| 6500 crore and execution low margins orders behind us, we believe KEC is entering a strong growth trajectory. With PAT CAGR of 53.2% over FY22-
24E and reducing interest cost intensity, we expect rerating to happen for the stock. We value KEC at | 515 i.e. 17x P/E on FY24E EPS
Mishra Dhatu Nigam (MISDHA): Rising from three year
hibernation…
• The share price of Mishra Dhatu
Weekly Bar Chart
MOMENTUM PICK
Nigam has recently generated a
Breakout above 30 months triangular consolidation Target @ 295
resolute breakout above 30 months 278 signals resumption of up move
triangular consolidation with strong
268
volume of more than double of its
10 months average volume of 0.2
crore share per week signalling 214
resumption of up move 219
• The stock has retraced its 28
month’s corrective decline (| 278- Key support
156) in just six months signalling @ 180
faster retracement indicating 156
20 Weeks
structural turnaround 135 EMA
• Last six week’s breather towards

the major breakout area provides Breakout supported by strong volume
fresh entry opportunity for target of
| 295 as it is the range implication
of two year range (225-155)
Fundamental Outlook
• Mishra Dhatu Nigam (Midhani) is a leading manufacturer of special steel, super alloys and titanium alloys catering to niche end-user segments like space,
defence, etc. Midhani’s product range includes super alloys, titanium and titanium alloys, special purpose steels and other special alloys
• As on October 1, 2022, Midhani’s order book was at | 1501 crore compared to | 1359 crore as on July 1, 2022. In terms of order book break-up, ~55% is
from the defence segment, ~35% is from the space segment while balance ~10% is from others
• The wide plate mill of Midhani is currently under trial runs. Once the wide plate mill is fully ramped up it is expected to generate revenue to the tune of ~|
500 crore. The | 500 crore annual revenue run rate from the wide plate mill is expected reached in FY24E, once the entire product range is established
• Going forward, as the facilities ramp up production, additional revenue is expected is likely to flow from wide plate mill as well as the Rohtak plant, thereby
providing healthy revenue visibility for the company
Techno Electric (TECEEC): Multiyear breakout in the offing…

• The BSE power index gave a
Weekly Bar Chart
MOMENTUM PICK
breakout above 2008 highs after
decade long consolidation. Within Target @ 410
power infra segment, Techno 362
Electric is on the cusp of breakout
from four year’s consolidation
indicating structural turnaround
• The stock has witnessed renewed
buying momentum over past few
months and forming higher high- Key support
low indicating steady uptrend. We 224
@ 260
expect rallies to further accelerate
above 320 which acted as hurdle on
numerous occasions 173

• The target of | 410 is projected
based on 123.6% external
retracement of 2021 decline (362-
224)
Fundamental Outlook
• Techno Electric Engineering Company (TEEC) is one of the leading power-infrastructure companies engaged in three primary business segments; EPC
(construction), renewable power generation (wind power) and public-private partnership (PPP) projects in transmission & distribution (T&D)
• EPC Business: Contributed ~92% to FY22 revenue, generated excellent RoCE of 50-75% over the past five years. PPP projects business: It is present in
BOOT/BOOM transmission projects in PPP mode. Wind Power: TEEC owns ~130 MW of wind power generation capacity
• Entry into data centre, smart meters and FGD market and becoming significant EPC player that improves revenue visibility over the next few years. The
company has a healthy balance sheet and cash balance of | 1200 crore
• During Q2FY23, the company booked orders worth | 400 crore against | 500 crore in Q2FY22 and | 1900 crore in Q1FY23. Current order book was at
| 3600 crore. For FY23, the management has maintained its order inflow guidance of | 3000 crore across from FGD, T&D, smart metering and data centres
Performance Scorecard
CY22 Performance
Rec. Date Stock Recommended Rec Price (|) Target (|) % Profit/Loss Comment
MOMENTUM PICK
28-Dec-21 Indian Hotel 178 238 34.0% Target Achieved
28-Dec-21 Gabriel India 132 175 33.0% Target Achieved
28-Dec-21 SKF India 3640 4700 30.0% Target Achieved
28-Dec-21 ABB 2190 2750 23.0% Target Achieved
28-Dec-21 ABFRL 275 360 15.0% Booked profit at 315
28-Dec-21 JSL 191 240 15.0% Booked profit at 219
28-Dec-21 TCI 730 950 15.0% Booked profit at 837
28-Dec-21 United spirit 880 1080 7.00% Booked profit at 945
28-Dec-21 HCL TECH 1258 1485 -17.00% Square off at 1044
Yearly Technical Performance Since 2013

Year 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013
Avg return on positive calls (in %) 22 25 3 18 26 28 25 33 27 23

Strike Rate 89% 100% 14% 71% 57% 100% 50% 100% 100% 64%
No of Calls 9 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 12
*Average Strike rate over past 10 years is 75%
Click here to go to top

Source: ICICI Direct Research
MOMENTUM PICK
Appendix

Globally, ratio breakouts lead to multifold gains in
subsequent years
Ratio Breakout Date Value Resurns in

Index Months
From To From To No. of time
MOMENTUM PICK
DJIA Oct-90 Jan-00 2,354 11,750 5 111
Apr-78 Apr-81 434 1,810 4 39
Hang Seng Jan-91 Jan-94 3,243 12,599 4 36
Aug-03 Jan-08 10,908 31,958 3 50
Nikkei Jan-82 Dec-89 7,918 38,957 5 95
Dax Oct-93 Mar-00 2,069 8,136 4 78

Magnitude of average secondary corrections over past
two decades is -15%
Nifty Index: Magnitude of secondary Corrections over past two decades
Time No. of Price Correction Time No. of Price Correction
MOMENTUM PICK
From To Months From To (%) From To Months From To (%)
Sep-03 Sep-03 1 1431 1285 -10 Nov-09 Nov-09 2 5181 4538 -12
Jan-04 May-04 4 2015 1292 -36 Jan-10 May-10 5 5310 4675 -12
Jan-05 Jan-05 1 2120 1894 -11 Feb-12 May-12 4 5629 4770 -15
Mar-05 Apr-05 2 2183 1896 -13 Oct-12 Oct-12 1 5815 4888 -16
Oct-05 Oct-05 1 2669 2307 -14 Feb-13 Apr-13 2 6112 5477 -10
May-06 Jun-06 2 3774 2596 -31 May-13 Aug-13 4 6229 5118 -18
Jul-06 Jul-06 1 3209 2878 -10 Mar-15 Feb-16 12 9119 6825 -25
Dec-06 Dec-06 1 4047 3658 -10 Sep-16 Dec-16 4 8968 7893 -12
Feb-07 Mar-07 1 4245 3554 -16 Jan-18 Mar-18 3 11171 9952 -11
Jul-07 Aug-07 1 4648 4002 -14 Sep-18 Oct-18 1 11760 10005 -15
Oct-07 Oct-07 1 5737 5070 -12 Jun-19 Aug-19 2 12103 10637 -12

Nov-07 Nov-07 1 6012 5394 -10 Apr-20 May-20 1 9889 8807 -11
Jan-09 Mar-09 2 3147 2539 -19 Apr-20 Apr-20 1 9889 8807 -11
Jun-09 Jul-09 2 4693 3918 -17 Oct-21 Jun-22 9 18604 15184 -18
Average Correction -15

FII inflows to return as dollar peaks with DII flows plentiful
• Indian equities remained resilient in CY22 despite FIIs pulling out more than | 135,000 crore as strong DII inflows (| 169000 1400000
MOMENTUM PICK
crore) absorbed the pain 1200000
32000
• DII activity over the past few years has seen a remarkable jump helping, reducing vulnerability to foreign outflows 18%
• This is a major structural change in favour of Indian equities from a liquidity point of view 1000000
25% 800000
40% 600000
29%
64%
8000 400000
200000
2000 Sensex FII Cumulative investment since CY00-till date DII Cumulative investment since CY00-till date -200000

1800000 130
• FII flows in EMs has an inverse relation with US Dollar Index
1600000 • In the current scenario with the dollar showing signs of weakness, we expect FII inflows to once again rise in Indian 120
1400000 equities, leading to acceleration of up move in the Indian equity market 110
100
1200000
90
1000000
80
800000
70
600000
60
400000 50
200000 40
0 30
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
FII Cumulative investment since CY00-till date Dollar Index

Dollar index topping out, boon for equities…
Dollar Index Weekly Bar Chart

Historically, topping out of Dollar index fuels structural up move in equities
MOMENTUM PICK
Channel breakdown in Dollar index confirms strength in equities
S&P 500 Weekly Bar Chart

Inverse correlation between Dollar index and global equities expected to pan out

Domestic market has direct correlation with US market. Hence, we expect extension of structural up move
Nifty Weekly Bar Chart

Confirmed by Dollar Index components..
>50% weightage of Dollar index components confirming topping pattern 120
MOMENTUM PICK
Dollar Index Weekly line Chart
60
Euro / US Dollar
1.6
Historically, breakdown in Dollar index confirmed by breakout in other components 0.8
British Pound / US Dollar

2
US Dollar / Japanese Yen 75
150
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

US markets, worst priced in?
S&P 500 Weekly Bar Chart
MOMENTUM PICK
• Percentage of stocks above 200 DMA of S&P 500 universe has bounced after recording extreme low below 20
• Since 1990 reading below 20 has always led to a durable bottom in each of the nine instances
• Subsequent rallies in the S&P 500 have measured minimum 20% from lows on each occasion
• Over the past three decade, on multiple occasions buying demand emerged from long term 200 week’s DMA

Percentage of stock above 200 days SMA

Brent Futures ($87): Consolidation likely. Upside capped
at $95
Brent - Weekly bar chart

139
MOMENTUM PICK
• Breakdown below last two year rising channel highlights end of up trend. It is expected to undergo 125
price/time consolidation in the broad range of $ 70-95.
• Upside are capped at $ 95 being the value of 52-week ema Upside capped
105
• Key support placed in $ 65-70 band at $95
86
71
65 Support
@ 65
52 Weeks
EMA

Confluence of multiple
retracement and November
36 2021 low around $65 makes it a
major support in medium term
16

MOMENTUM PICK
Pankaj Pandey Head – Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

ICICI Direct Research Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC,
Andheri (East)
Mumbai – 400 093
research@icicidirect.com

Disclaimer
We /I, Dharmesh Shah, Nitin Kunte, Ninad Tamhanekar, Pabitro Mukherjee, Vinayak Parmar Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the
subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Analysts are not registered as research analysts by FINRA and are not associated
persons of the ICICI Securities Inc. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee
of the companies mentioned in the report.
MOMENTUM PICK
Terms & conditions and other disclosures:
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companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.
Recommendation in reports based on technical and derivative analysis centre on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions, trading volume etc as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with the
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Research Analysts:

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

20% 35961 30000 Bosch BOSLIM 51,696 16800-17800 22,000 26

Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research

Nifty CY30 projection based on decadal Cycle Nifty @ 55k

Returns in No. of times

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research

5x Breakout from multi year underperformance lead to 5x rally in US

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

5x Seven years long consolidation breakout resulted into 5x returns in 40

Dax Index vs MSCI World Index 8

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Third year of decadal cycle

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

3rd year of decadal cycle

Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research

Nifty - Weekly bar chart

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research

Nifty - Weekly chart 25600

Nift y For war d R et ur n Nift y For war d R et ur n

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research

Union election cycle

Sensex return on Pre-Election Year

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

High Relative strength Multi-Year Breakout Top Picks for CY23

Commodity and Currency Outlook 

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

High Relative strength Multi-Year Breakout

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Technical Outlook Rec. Price 2110.00-2185.00 Target 2520.00 Upside 16%

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Technical Outlook Rec. Price 545.00-572.00 Target 660.00 Upside 17%

• Key observation has been that

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Technical Outlook Rec. Price 132.00-140.00 Target 168.00 Upside 23%

• We expect thrust from the recent 36

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Source: Spider Software, ICICI Direct Research

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Technical Outlook Rec. Price 460.00-490.00 Target 598.00 Upside 25%

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Technical Outlook Rec. Price 305.00-320.00 Target 410.00 Upside 30%

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Yearly Technical Performance Since 2013

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Click here to go to top

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Ratio Breakout Date Value Resurns in

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research