1 NEWS Kantar Public Poll

20 - 24 May 2023
Attention: Television New Zealand

Release date: 25 May 2023

Contents
Contents .......................................................................................................................................................... 1

Methodology summary ................................................................................................................................... 2

Summary of results .......................................................................................................................................... 3

Key political events .......................................................................................................................................... 4

Question order and wording ............................................................................................................................ 5

Party vote ........................................................................................................................................................ 6

Preferred Prime Minister ................................................................................................................................. 8

Economic outlook .......................................................................................................................................... 10

Impact of Budget 2023 on cost of living ......................................................................................................... 12

Timing for tax cuts ......................................................................................................................................... 13

Purchase of fresh fruit and vegetables ........................................................................................................... 14

Introduction of a four-day working week ...................................................................................................... 15

Parliamentary seat entitlement ..................................................................................................................... 16

Method for calculating parliamentary seat entitlement ................................................................................ 16

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Methodology summary
CLIENT: Television New Zealand.

RELEASED: Thursday 25 May 2023

POLL CONDUCTED: Interviewing took place from Saturday 20 to Wednesday 24 May 2023.

MEDIAN FIELDWORK DAY: Sunday (50% of sample size target was reached on this day).

TARGET POPULATION: Eligible New Zealand voters.

INTERVIEW METHOD: Telephone and online. Conducted by CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone
Interviewing) and CAWI (Computer Assisted Web Interviewing).

SAMPLE SELECTION: Mobile: Random dialling of New Zealand mobile telephones using probability
sampling. Interviewers ask to speak to the main user of the phone who is aged 18
years or over. When required, multiple calls are made to reach that person. Voting
eligibility is determined at the first question.
Online: Interviews are collected by online panels, with quotas (or interviewing
targets) set to ensure the final sample is nationally representative. All respondents
are aged 18 or over. The panels used comply with the ESOMAR guidelines for online
research.

SAMPLE SIZE: n = 1,002 eligible voters, including n=502 polled via mobile phone and n=500 polled
online, using online panels.

SAMPLING ERROR: The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence
level. This is the sampling error for a result around 50%. Results higher and lower
than 50% have a smaller sampling error. For example, results around 10% and 5%
have sampling errors of approximately ±1.9%-points and ±1.4%-points, respectively,
at the 95% confidence level.
These sampling errors assume a simple random sample of 1,000 eligible voters.

It should be noted that any demographic sub-group analysis (e.g., by age or gender)
will be based on a smaller set of interviews and so will have a wider sampling error.

WEIGHTING: The data have been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age,
gender, region, ethnic identification and education level.

REPORTED FIGURES: Reported bases are unweighted. For Party Support, percentages have been rounded
up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 4.5%, which are reported to
1 decimal place. For all other figures percentages have been rounded up or down to
whole numbers except those less than 1%, which are reported to 1 decimal place.
All sub-group differences listed for supplementary questions are statistically
significant at the 95% confidence level.

METHODOLOGY NOTES: The party vote question has been asked unprompted since February 1997.

Note: Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the data on party
support. The results are a snapshot in time of party support, and not a prediction.
This poll was conducted in accordance with the New Zealand Political Polling Code. Publication or reproduction
of the results must be acknowledged as the “1 NEWS Kantar Public Poll”.
Summary of results
PARTY SUPPORT – PARTY VOTE
National Party 37% Up 3%-points from 4 to 8 March 2023
Labour Party 35% Down 1%-point
ACT Party 11% Steady
Green Party 7% Down 4%-points
New Zealand First 3% Steady
Te Pāti Māori / Māori Party 2% Down 1%-point
The Opportunities Party (TOP) 1% Steady
DemocracyNZ 1% Steady
Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 1% Up 1%-point
New Conservative 1% Steady

UNDECIDED VOTERS
Party Vote – Don’t know or refused 12% Down 1%-point from 4 to 8 March 2023

PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER

Chris Hipkins 25% Down 2%-points from 4 to 8 March 2023

Christopher Luxon 18% Up 1%-point

David Seymour 7% Up 1%-point

Winston Peters 2% Down 1%-point

Chlöe Swarbrick 2% Up 1%-point

Nicola Willis 1% Steady

Jacinda Ardern 1% Down 1%-point

Rawiri Waititi 1% Steady

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Optimism 30% Up 5%-points from 4 to 8 March 2023
Pessimism 42% Down 5%-points

The results shown on this page, and the changes identified over time, are reported to the nearest whole
number. More detailed results are provided in the body of this report.
Key political events
5th March 2023 – 19th May 2023

• On 23 March, National party unveiled its education policies that would focus on improving children’s
literacy and maths skills.

• On 27 March, Green’s co-leader, Marama Davidson clarified comments made about cis white men
committing most of the violence saying she was in shock after being hit with a motorcycle and could
have made her comments more clearly.

• On March 28, Labour Minister Stuart Nash was sacked after breaching the cabinet manual on multiple
occasions.

• PM Hipkins announced policies to crack down on lobbying in government by making the process more
transparent.

• On 13 April, the Government announced changes to Three Water’s Policy, most notably they
increased the number of water entities, going from four to ten.

• On 20 April, annual inflation dropped from 7.2 percent to 6.7 percent. Meanwhile food prices have
increased 12.1 percent compared to this time last year, the biggest annual increase in more than 30
years.

• On 26 April, The IRD report found that the wealthiest New Zealanders are paying a lower effective tax
rate than most other New Zealanders. However, the Government promised no new taxes for this
Parliamentary term.

• On May 2, Labour MP, Meka Whaitiri resigned from the Labour party and joined Te Pāti Māori.
Whaitiri avoided the waka-jumping legislation to do so.

• On May 4, PM Hipkins met with King Charles for the King’s Coronation.

• On May 5, Green MP, Elizabeth Kerekere resigned from the Green Party after an internal review was
launched following an incident where she called Chlöe Swarbrick a ‘crybaby’ in a group chat of MPs
and staff.

• On May 18, Budget 2023 was released. Some notable spending is listed below:
o $1.2 billion for extending 20 hours childcare cover to include two-year-olds
o $1 billion for the Cyclone Recovery Package
o $618 million to scrap $5 co-payments for prescriptions.
o $455 million for new schools and classrooms under the National Education Growth Plan.

• National and ACT labelled the budget as a blowout in spending. ACT leader, David Seymour labelled
Labour’s Minister of Finance, Grant Robertson’s spending as irresponsible.
Question order and wording

Voting eligibility
“If a general election was held today, would you be eligible to vote?”

NOTE: Those not eligible to vote are excluded from the total sample size for this poll.

Likelihood to vote
“If a general election was held today, how likely would you be to vote?”

NOTE: Those claiming they would be ‘quite likely’ or ‘very likely’ to vote have been included in the party
support analysis.

Introduction
“Under MMP you get two votes.

One is for a political party and is called a party vote.

The other is for your local MP and is called an electorate vote.”

Party vote
“Firstly thinking about the Party Vote which is for a political party.

Which political party would you vote for?”

IF DON’T KNOW

“Which one would you be most likely to vote for?”

NOTE: Those who indicated the party they would be most likely to vote for have been included in the party
support analysis, provided they said they would be ‘quite likely’ or ‘very likely’ to vote.

Preferred Prime Minister

“Thinking about all current MPs of any party, which one would you personally prefer to be Prime Minister?”

IF NO ONE

“Is there anyone who is not a current MP who you would prefer to be Prime Minister?”

Economic outlook
“And do you think during the next 12 months the economy will be in a better state than at present, or in a
worse state?”
Party vote
“Which political party would you vote for?”

IF DON’T KNOW “Which one would you be most likely to vote for?”

21-25 May 30 Jul-3 17-21 Sep 26-30 Nov 25-29 Jan 4-8 Mar 20-24 May
2022 Aug 2022 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023
Don’t know 9% 8% 10% 8% 9% 10% 9%
Refused 2% 3% 3% 3% 2% 4% 3%
TOTAL 11% 11% 13% 11% 11% 13% 12%
Base (n=) 1,002 1,023 1,001 1,011 1,008 1,002 1,002

30 Jul-3
21-25 17-21 Sep 26-30 Nov 25-29 Jan 4-8 Mar 20-24 May
Aug
May 2022 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023
2022
National Party 39% 37% 37% 38% 37% 34% 37%
Labour Party 35% 33% 34% 33% 38% 36% 35%
ACT Party 7% 11% 9% 11% 10% 11% 11%
Green Party 10% 9% 9% 9% 7% 11% 7%
New Zealand First 1.3% 2.6% 3.0% 3.6% 2.3% 3.1% 3.0%
Te Pāti Māori / Māori
1.9% 2.3% 1.6% 2.0% 1.4% 2.6% 2.4%
Party
The Opportunities
1.8% 1.9% 1.3% 1.7% 1.1% 1.0% 1.4%
Party
DemocracyNZ - - - 0.3% 0.7% 0.6% 0.7%
Aotearoa Legalise
0.1% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.6%
Cannabis Party
New Conservative 1.2% 0.7% 1.0% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.6%
Freedoms New
0.4% 0.8% 0.6% - 0.3% - 0.5%
Zealand (nett)
- Freedoms New
- - - - - - -
Zealand
- New Nation Party - - - - - - 0.3%
- Vision New
0.4% 0.8% 0.6% - 0.3% - 0.2%
Zealand
NZ Outdoors &
0.3% - 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2%
Freedom Party
Heartland NZ /
Heartland New 0.2% 0.2% 0.6% - - 0.3% -
Zealand Party
ONE Party 0.2% - - - 0.1% 0.1% -

Other 0.9% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%

TOTAL 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%*
Base (n=) 826 837 798 812 822 787 805

Based on probed party supporters. *Percentages do not add to total due to rounding.
 1 NEWS Kantar Public Poll
Party Vote
60%

50%

40%
National
Labour
30%

20%

ACT
10%
Green

Māori
0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

National Labour ACT Green Māori

Preferred Prime Minister
“Now thinking about all current MPs of any party, which one would you personally prefer to be Prime
Minister?” IF NO ONE: “Is there anyone who is not a current MP who you would prefer to be Prime Minister?”

21-25 30 Jul-3 17-21 26-30 20-24

25-29 4-8 Mar
May Aug Sep Nov May
Jan 2023 2023
2022 2022 2022 2022 2023
Chris Hipkins - 0% 0% 0% 23% 27% 25%
Christopher Luxon 25% 22% 21% 23% 22% 17% 18%
David Seymour 3% 5% 4% 6% 6% 6% 7%
Winston Peters 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2%
Chlöe Swarbrick 1.7% 1.2% 1.1% 1.7% 1.5% 0.9% 2%
Nicola Willis 0.4% 0.9% 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.9% 1%
Jacinda Ardern 33% 30% 30% 29% 5% 2% 1%
Rawiri Waititi 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.5%
Grant Robertson 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.5%
James Shaw 0.4% 0.2% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.5%
John Key 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4%
Debbie Ngarewa-Packer - - 0.1% - 0.1% 0.3% 0.4%
Carmel Sepuloni - - - - - - 0.3%
Mark Mitchell 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% - 0.1% - 0.3%
Kelvin Davis - - - 0.1% - - 0.3%
Marama Davidson 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2%
Kiritapu Allan - - - - 1.0% 0.1% 0.2%
Chris Bishop 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% - - 0.1% 0.2%
Matt King - - 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Raf Manji 0.3% - - 0.5% 0.3% - 0.1%
Shane Reti 0.1% - - 0.1% - - 0.1%
Paul Goldsmith - - - - - - 0.1%
Ron Mark - - - - 0.1% - 0.1%
Helen Clark - 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% - - 0.1%
Judith Collins 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%

Other 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1%
Don't know 28% 31% 33% 28% 31% 33% 32%
None 1% 3% 2% 3% 3% 4% 3%
Refused 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1%
TOTAL 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%*
Base (n=) 1,002 1,023 1,001 1,011 1,008 1,002 1,002
Based on eligible New Zealand voters. *Percentages do not add to total due to rounding.

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70 1 NEWS Kantar Public Poll
Preferred Prime Minister
60

50

40

30

20

10

0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
John Key David Shearer David Cunliffe Andrew Little
Jacinda Ardern Bill English Simon Bridges Judith Collins
David Seymour Christopher Luxon Chris Hipkins
Economic outlook
“And do you think during the next 12 months the economy will be in a better state than at present, or in a
worse state?”

21-25 May 30 Jul-3 17-21 Sep 26-30 Nov 25-29 Jan 4-8 Mar 20-24 May
2022 Aug 2022 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023
Better 24% 26% 36% 18% 28% 25% 30%
Same 26% 25% 26% 21% 31% 27% 28%
Worse 50% 49% 38% 61% 41% 47% 42%
TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%* 100%
Base (n=) 1,002 1,023 1,001 1,011 1,008 1,002 1,002
Based on eligible New Zealand voters. *Percentages do not add to total due to rounding.

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 1 NEWS Kantar Public Poll
Economic Outlook
100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Better Worse
Impact of Budget 2023 on cost of living
“Do you think the 2023 Budget will be effective in addressing recent increases in the cost of living?”

Total eligible New Zealand voters

20-24 May 2023
Yes 26%
No 60%
Don’t know / Refused 14%
Total 100%
Base (n=) 1,002
Based on eligible New Zealand voters.

Most eligible voters (60%) do not believe the 2023 Budget will be effective in addressing the cost of living. The
cost of living was identified in our March Poll as the issue most likely to influence how New Zealanders vote at
the 2023 election. Only 26% feel the Budget will be effective in addressing the cost of living, while 14% are
usure or refused to answer.

Those groups of eligible voters who are more likely than average (26%) to say the 2023 Budget will be effective
in addressing recent increases in the cost of living include:
• Labour party supporters (45%)
• Men aged 18-34 (35%)
• Asian New Zealanders (35%)
• Those with an annual household income of between $30,001 and $70,000 (32%)
• Aucklanders (31%).

Those groups of eligible voters who are more likely than average (60%) to say the 2023 Budget will not be
effective in addressing recent increases in the cost of living include:
• ACT party supporters (87%)
• National party supporters (77%)
• Those with an annual household income of more than $150,000 (73%)
• New Zealand Europeans (64%).

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Timing for tax cuts
“Is now the right time to introduce tax cuts in New Zealand?”

Total eligible New Zealand voters

20-24 May 2023
Yes 52%
No 35%
Don’t know / Refused 12%
Total 100%*
Base (n=) 1,002
Based on eligible New Zealand voters. *Percentages do not add to total due to rounding.

Just over half of eligible voters (52%) feel that now is the right time to introduce tax cuts in New Zealand.
Thirty-five percent do not feel it is the right time, while 12% are usure or refused to answer.

Those groups of eligible voters who are more likely than average (52%) to believe now is the right time to
introduce tax cuts in New Zealand include:
• Asian New Zealanders (72%)
• National party supporters (63%)
• Women aged 35-54 (60%).

Those groups of eligible voters who are more likely than average (35%) to believe now is not the right time to
introduce tax cuts in New Zealand include:
• Green party supporters (56%)
• Men aged 55+ (52%)
• Residents in the Wellington region (47%)
• Labour party supporters (43%)
• New Zealand Europeans (41%)
• Graduates (40%).

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Purchase of fresh fruit and vegetables
“Are you buying more, less or about the same amount of fresh fruit and vegetables as you were this time last
year?”

Total eligible New Zealand voters

20-24 May 2023
More 9%
About the same 40%
Less 51%
Don’t know / Refused 1%
Total 100%*
Base (n=) 1,002
Based on eligible New Zealand voters. *Percentages do not add to total due to rounding.

Just over half of eligible voters (51%) are purchasing less fresh fruit and vegetables than they were this time
last year. Only 9% are purchasing more, while 40% have not changed their shopping habits and 1% are usure
or refused to answer.

Those groups of eligible voters who are more likely than average (9%) to say they are purchasing more fresh
fruit and vegetables than 12 months ago include:
• Women aged 18-34 (15%)
• Men aged 35-54 (15%).

Those groups of eligible voters who are more likely than average (40%) to say they are purchasing about the
same amount of fresh fruit and vegetables than 12 months ago include:
• Men aged 55+ (55%)
• Those with an annual household income of more than $150,000 (54%)
• New Zealand Europeans (43%).

Those groups of eligible voters who are more likely than average (51%) to say they are purchasing less fresh
fruit and vegetables than 12 months ago include:
• Pasifika (69%)
• Women aged 35-54 (66%)
• Women aged 18-34 (61%)
• Those with an annual household income of between $30,001 and $70,000 (58%).

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Introduction of a four-day working week
“Do you support or oppose1 the introduction of a four-day working week for New Zealand?”

Total eligible New Zealand voters

20-24 May 2023
Support 63%
Oppose 22%
Don’t know / Refused 15%
Total 100%
Base (n=) 1,002
Based on eligible New Zealand voters.

A majority of eligible voters (63%) support the idea of a four day working week in New Zealand. Only 22%
oppose it, while 15% are usure or refused to answer.

Those groups of eligible voters who are more likely than average (63%) to support the idea of a four day
working week include:
• Green party supporters (85%)
• Those with an annual household income of more than $150,000 (74%)
• Those aged 18-29 (74%)
• Those aged 30-39 (72%)
• Graduates (72%)
• Labour party supporters (72%)
• Māori (72%)
• Those aged 40-49 (70%).

Those groups of eligible voters who are more likely than average (22%) to oppose the introduction of a four
day working week include:
• Men aged 55+ (38%)
• National party supporters (33%)
• Non-graduates (24%).

1 This wording was reversed, so 50% of respondents saw or heard – oppose or support.

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Parliamentary seat entitlement
The following table shows the parliamentary seat entitlement according to the results reported in this poll. The
calculation assumes that Rawiri Waititi holds the seat of Waiariki.

Number of seats

National Party 47

Labour Party 46

ACT Party 15

Green Party 9

Te Pāti Māori 3

TOTAL 120

Method for calculating parliamentary seat entitlement

The St Laguë method is used by the Chief Electoral Officer at election time to convert the number of votes for
each party into the number of seats they get in Parliament.

It is applied to all the parties which are eligible, either by exceeding the 5% threshold or by winning at least
one electorate seat. More information about the St Laguë method can be obtained directly from the Electoral
Commission.

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