Topic 2

Assigned to:

I. Stages and Limitations of Demographic Transition Model

Introduction: Now it is time to learn about a model in predicting the population’s growth!

(1) To compare, para sa start palang may rough idea na kayo kung ano ang DEMOGRAPHIC
TRANSITIN MODEL, imagine a model in Geography (maps, globes, and geological models). When
we talk about Geography, what is usually meant by this?

Yes, it’s how the world looks like or simply, its physical features. And pag dating naman sa
models, we are talking about a visual way of how something will happen based on what has
happened or happening in other places.

(Slide) Now, applying the same concept from models in Geography, DTM or Demographic
Transitional Model studies how changes in the birth rate and death rate can affect the total
population of a country and the way a population grows.

Another definition for DTM is the Demographic Transition Model attempts to describe and
predict how a population will change over time as it changes from an agrarian society to an
industrial, and post-industrial society (End of Slide)

Additional info.: Based ang model na ito sa circumstances and events happening in Europe and
North America from the period when people first started occupying the lands there and at the
present.

Explanation: Basically, the said model seeks to describe and predict population changes over
time, considering factors such as urbanization, industrialization, and improvements in
healthcare. By analyzing birth and death rates, the DTM helps in understanding the dynamics of
population growth and can aid policymakers in making informed decisions regarding healthcare,
education, and resource allocation.

II. The Demographic Transition Theory

(2) (Slide)Under this model naman is a theory known as The Demographic Transition Theory which
was first coined by the American demographer Frank W. Notestein in the mid-twentieth century,
but it has since been elaborated and expanded upon by many others such as a fellow American
demographer W. Thompson.
Additional info.: Demographic Transition Theory (DTT) was developed by Frank Notestein in 1945. This
theory provides an explanation of how fertility and mortality rates impact the age distribution and
growth rate of populations. However, Warren Thompson is credited as being the first demographer to
identify the theory of the demographic transition by observing global trends of birth and death rates in
the late 1800's. (Texas A&M University Library)

The theory is a generalized description of the changing pattern of mortality, fertility, and
growth rates as societies move from one demographic regime to another. It suggests that all
countries go through 4-5 stages of development (End of Slide)

Explanation: Ang theory na ito daw ay pinapakita yung relationship between birth rate and
death rate changes in the area of economic development and pinapakita that all countries have
to pass through different stages of population growth. Yung stages na binanggit sa slide will be
discussed soon after. This theory also aims to throw light on the changes in birth rate and death
rate and consequently on the growth rate of population.

(3) (Slide) The Demographic Transition Model (End of Slide)

Explanation: So very basic lang naman ang Model ng Demographic Transition. What is presented
to you are the birth rate (represented by the blue colored line), death rate (represented by the
dark colored line), the natural increase (the vertical gap or the difference between birth rate and
death rate), and the total population (that represent the effect of increase or decrease of birth
and death rates). And what you see there sa kada column are the Stages of Development.

(4) Moving forward, dito naman tayo sa nabanggit kaninang stages of development. Sa presentation
na ito, meron lamang tayong 4 stages of development. But according to other sources, there is a
fifth stage and only a few countries have come across such stage. Explain ko mamaya after ng
stages 1-4.

(Slide) Stage 1: Pre-Transition. Characterized by high birth rates, and high fluctuating death
rates.

Explanation: Going back, as you can see sa slide, ang stage one: pre-transition or high stationary
stage shows that both death and birth rates are high. The natural cost din dito is stable or slow
increase. Meaning, the population is very slow and has a short life span. An example of this is
yung countries that are dependent on rapid fluctuations such as drought and diseases tulad ng
mga remote tribes such as mga Amazons or Laos.

Stage 2: Early Transition. Sinasabi dito na during the early transition stage, the death rate
begins to fall. As birth rates remain high, the population starts to grow rapidly.

Explanation: As shown in the model, yung vertical gap or natural increase starts to widen sa
early expanding stage or early transition stage. This denotes daw that, as mentioned in the slide,
population starts to grow because of the decrease in death rate compared to birth rate
remaining stable. Additionally, this is due to the cause of improvement in food supply and public
health and agriculture.

Stage 3: Late Transition ang stage naman na ito shows that the birth rates start to decline. The
rate of population growth decelerates.
 Explanation: According to the model, during the third stage daw signs of birth rates declining are
shown mainly because of factors that lead to such tulad ng access to contraception, increases in
wages, urbanization, reduction in subsistence agriculture, and an increase in the status and
education of women. These factors contribute to the decrease of birth rate and the narrowing of
the vertical gap known as natural increase between birth rate and death rate.

Stage 4: Post-Transition. Sa post transition naman, it shows that societies are characterized by
low birth and low death rates. Population growth is negligible, or even enters a decline.

Explanation: This stage, as shown in model presents that both birth and death rates are low and
the natural increase had become narrow. In this stage, population is either stable or grows very
slowly or may start shrinking. Usually, countries in this stage are already developed tulad ng
China and Singapore. Other than that, ang cause ng lower death rates is because of lower rates
of diseases dahil sa abundance in healthcare and higher production of food. Ang cause naman
ng lower birth rates is because of independence for women and work opportunities.

Stage 5: Declining. This is an additional stage suggested by demographers but not completely
agreed upon pala and have been proposed depending on the fertility rate of a country. Few
countries that enter this stage are Germany, Italy, and Japan. And usually what happens is
because of the concept of childlessness is being introduced where they believe that raising a
child is expensive and people have elderly dependents. Another factor is the rise in
individualism, linked to the emancipation of women in the labor market.

Insight: So ayon yung Stages of Development. However, it must be remembered that the demographic
transition model is only a model and can not necessarily predict the future. It makes no comment on
change in population due to migration. Likewise, this theory assumes that population changes are
induced by the industrial changes and increased wealth, without taking into account the role of social
change in determining birth rate such as education of women.

III. Limitation of the Demographic Transition Model

(5) Moving forward, the model discussed to you assumes that all nations will progress through each
of the stages in turn as a country develops economically and socially. However, di naman lahat
ng countries would industrialize in the same way that Europe and the U.S. did, and that birth and
death rates might not follow the same pattern. This is where the Limitations of the Demographic
Transition Model takes place.
(6) The following are the limitations of the demographic transition model

Limitations:

1. The DTM does not take into account migration which is a huge determinant of population
growth.

Explanation: For instance, in many countries experiencing significant inward migration, such as
Canada or Australia, the population growth rates may be higher than what the DTM predicts.
Conversely, in countries with high outward migration, like the Philippines or Mexico, the
population growth rates may be lower than expected by the DTM. Migration plays a significant
role in altering the demographic landscape by influencing the size, composition, and growth of
populations, making it an essential consideration that the DTM fails to incorporate.

Australia: 2023, 5.73 per 1000 population (net migration)

Mexico: 2023, 6.094 per 1000 population (net migration)

2. It neglects varying factors such as natural disasters and pandemics within a country which
influence birth and death rates.

Explanation: during a natural disaster like a severe earthquake or hurricane, there may be a
spike in death rates due to the immediate impact and aftermath of the event. Similarly, during a
pandemic, such as the COVID-19 outbreak, there may be an increase in death rates due to the
spread of the disease. Additionally, birth rates may be affected during these crises, with
potential declines due to the disruption of healthcare services and economic hardships.

3. The model assumes that all countries must follow the stages sequentially which is not always
true.

Explanation: For instance, some countries may experience rapid economic development, leading
to a decline in birth rates before significant improvements in healthcare and a decrease in death
rates. Conversely, there are countries where birth rates remain high despite advancements in
healthcare and a decrease in death rates. These deviations from the sequential progression of
 stages highlight the limitations of the DTM in capturing the unique demographic transitions
experienced by different countries.

Countries:
(a) Niger has one of the highest birth rates in the world, with an average of over six children per
woman. Despite efforts to improve healthcare services and access to contraception, cultural
norms, limited education, and high infant mortality rates contribute to the persistence of
high birth rates in the country.

(b) Afghanistan also experiences high birth rates, partly due to cultural and social factors.
Traditional gender roles, limited access to education, and a lack of awareness about family
planning contribute to the high fertility rates in the country.

4. Based on European countries and industrialization.

Explanation: The model's focus on European experiences may not fully capture the unique
demographic dynamics and challenges faced by African nations. For instance, many African
countries have different cultural norms, healthcare systems, and levels of socioeconomic
development compared to Europe during industrialization. These factors can significantly
influence fertility rates, mortality rates, and population growth patterns, making the DTM less
suitable for predicting and understanding demographic transitions in African contexts. Therefore,
relying solely on the DTM without considering these specific regional factors may lead to
incomplete or inaccurate conclusions about population dynamics in Africa.

5. Leaving out a Stage 5 which most developed countries are or transitioning into.

Example: For instance, Japan may be in this stage, as shown in the model presented previously.
But what happens next? If the DTM is meant to predict future population trends, then it does
not serve a purpose for countries like Japan that are currently in the final stage. Stage 6 is
hypothetical at this point, and even stage 5 isn’t completely agreed upon. Kumbaga it’s the end
of the line or edge and what over is hypothetical lamang and does not anymore provide
predictions of future population trend.

Insight: With those said, it points out that the DTM does not account for the impact of migration or
predict the duration of each stage within a country. Despite these limitations, it acknowledges that the
DTM and similar patterns that aid in understanding population dynamics can be helpful. In essence, the
DTM provides valuable insights but should be complemented by considering other demographic
variables and factors such as migration.