Macro Overview and the Climate for Credit

May 2023
OVERVIEW OF RENAISSANCE CAPITAL AFRICA
The leading Africa focused investment
1 4
banking and markets franchise
#1 Frontier markets Firm in 2018 (Global Finance)
#1 Frontier markets Firm in 2017 and 2016 (Extel)
2 Leading advisory firm in EMEA
Strategic and financial adviser of choice for leading
blue-chip corporates across Frontier space (strategy,
capital structure, M&A, financing)
Extensive track record across various sectors
3 in our target markets
Numerous advisory and financing transactions
across the financial services, fintech, healthcare,
pharmaceutical, oil &gas, infrastructure sectors
1 Nairobi is an affiliate entity
Solid relationships with and access to a
uniquely wide base of EMEA-focused
investors able to provide incremental demand
We have traditionally outperformed other banks on
the majority of strategic and financing deals
5 One of the largest sales and distribution
platforms for EMEA & Frontier markets
Top 3 broker by market share in target SSA markets
with strong distribution relationships across the UK,
Europe, Middle East and Africa to bolster our
commitment to servicing clients through consistent
aftermarket support
On the ground presence in key locations for
6 Africa
Local regional offices and distribution centres in
Lagos and Nairobi1
2
RENAISSANCE CAPITAL AFRICA TEAM

Senior Team

Samuel Sule Seun Onayiga Daniel Ugwuoke

Managing Director. Managing Director, Managing Director,

Chief Executive Officer Head of West Africa IB Head of FICC, Nigeria

17yrs 17yrs 24yrs

Core IB Execution Team

Moyo Adeyoye Rashidat Agboke Uzo Alatta Douye Mac-Yoroki

Senior Associate Senior Associate Associate Senior Analyst

6yrs 6yrs 5yrs 5yrs

Trade and Legal

Tomisin Lagundoye Akinlolu Akinbola Ayobami Oladosu Great-David Oluwasipe

Vice President, Vice President, Associate,

Vice Preseident, Markets
Head of Legal Equity Trader Equity Sales Trader

13yrs 11yrs 6yrs

12yrs

An integrated team, combining technical expertise and distribution know-how to deliver the bespoke financial services

3
OUR NUMEROUS AWARDS ACROSS CORE
GEOGRAPHIES

Successfully executed First three IPOs The first IPO of a Sub- The first joint secondary The first ever IPO with dual
East Africa’s largest in Rwanda Saharan Stock offering on the Ugandan & NSE /LSE listing and the
Rights Issue Exchange Kenyan Stock exchanges largest capital raise in SSA
post 2008 crisis
$30m IPO $62m IPO

Pioneering & $263m Rights

Issue
$40m IPO
KES 627m IPO $95m Secondary
offering
$500m IPO

Entrepreneurial
The first equity placing The largest Take The first listing of The first South African The largest Africa-focused
for a Nigerian bank post Private transaction in depositary receipts on listing in Hong Kong investor conferences
2008 crisis Nigeria an African stock exchange

$76m Special $580m RTO Annual West, East and

Listing on Lusaka
placement Acquisition North Africa
Stock Exchange
conferences

Best investment bank in Number one Frontier Number one trader on Number one trader on NSE
Kenya Markets investment bank Nairobi Securities Exchange in in 2016/17 with 19% market
(2020) (2018) 2017 with 21% market share share

Leadership &
Excellence
Top rated Research House Number one Frontier Markets Number one SSA Broker, Number one trader in LSE
in SSA (2017,2018) Analyst (2016, 2017, 2018) Research House, and Investment GDRs in Q2 2018 with 10%
Company in 2014 market share

4
 LEADING FINTECH ADVISORY HOUSE

Selected Tech and FinTech deals across our key regions

Nigeria Ongoing Nigeria Ongoing Nigeria Mar 2023 Nigeria Jun 2022 Nigeria Dec 2021

Nigerian Fintech
Nigerian Fintech

Financial Advisor Joint Dealer and Joint Arranger Advisor Joint Issuing House/ Bookrunner Joint Issuing House and Bookrunner

SALE OF FINTECH COMPANY COMMERCIAL PAPER ISSUANCE FAIRMONEY’S ACQUISITION OF NGN111.75 BILLION IPO
NGN2.3 BILLION SENIOR
PAYFORCE UNSECURED BOND

Nigeria Nov 2021 Egypt Oct 2021 Egypt Aug 2021 Nigeria Apr 2021 Rwanda May 2021

Lead Arranger / Dealer Joint Global Coordinator & Bookrunner Joint Bookrunner Lead Arranger / Dealer Joint Bookrunner

NGN3.77 BILLION PRIVATE NOTE US$80MILION ACCELERATED NGN1.8 BILLION PRIVATE NOTE US$365 MILLION LISTING ON THE
US$372 MILLION INITIAL PUBLIC
ISSUANCE PLACEMENT ISSUANCE RSE
OFFERING

5
NIGERIAN CREDIT MARKETS – TECH ISSUANCES

Date Issuer Description Type of Debt

Mar-23 One Pipe raised US$4.8mn debt from TLG Capital Venture Debt

Dec-22 Moove raised US$30mn from a debut Sukuk bond Sukuk Bond

Sep-22 Issued a NGN115bn public bond Public Bond

Jul-22 Raised US$2.8mn Venture Debt

Jun-22 Global Accelerex issued a NGN2.3bn bond Bond Issuance

Mar-22 Thrive Agric raised US$55mn debt Venture Debt

Nov-21 Raised a NGN3.8bn private note Private Note

Apr-21 Fairmoney raised a NGN1.8bn private note Private Note

Sep-20 Raised a US$1mn bond Private Bond

Oct-19 Raised a US$63mn bond Public Bond

Mar-19 Raised a US$5mn bond from Lendable Venture Debt

Source: Africa: The Big Deal, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital

6
WHAT DEBT INVESTORS LOOK FOR

Solid credit story

Strong management team

Financial trajectory

Robust business plan

Collateral and security

Liquidity

Risk-adjusted pricing

7
 ASSESSING AFRICA’S MACRO LANDSCAPE
Central Bank Policy Rates on the Rise Heightened Inflation Pressure

60

50

40

30

20

10

Jan 2021

Jan 2022

Jan 2023
May 2020

May 2021

May 2022
Mar 2021

Mar 2022

Mar 2023
Jul 2020

Jul 2021

Jul 2022
Sep 2020

Nov 2020

Sep 2021

Nov 2021

Sep 2022

Nov 2022
Ghana Nigeria South Africa Kenya Egypt

Deteriorating FX Backdrop Africa’s GDP Trajectory

10.0%
35 500
8.0%
30 450
6.0%
400
25 4.0%
350
20 2.0%
300
250 0.0%
15
200 -2.0%
10
150 -4.0%
5 100 -6.0%
0 50 -8.0%
May-20

May-21

May-22
Nov-20

Nov-21

Nov-22
Sep-20

Sep-21

Sep-22
Jan-21

Jan-22

Jan-23
Jul-20

Mar-21

Jul-21

Mar-22

Jul-22

Mar-23

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

SSA Egypt Ghana

USD/EGP USD/GHS USD/ZAR Kenya Nigeria South Africa
USD/NGN -RHS USD/KES-RHS

Source: 1) Bloomberg, Central Bank Databases; 2) Bloomberg; 3) Bloomberg; 4) IMF

Note: Latest available data 8
 GHANA – BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE

Ghana Inflation Dynamics Severely Weakened Cedi Sharp spike in GHS Bond Yields

60% 15 55.0%
14 50.0%
50% 13
12 45.0%
40%
11 40.0%
30% 10 35.0%
9 30.0%
20% 8
7 25.0%
10%
6 20.0%
0% 5 15.0%

May-20

May-21

May-22
Nov-20

Nov-21

Nov-22
Sep-20

Sep-21

Sep-22
Jan-21

Jan-22

Jan-23
Jul-20

Mar-21

Jul-21

Mar-22

Jul-22

Mar-23
Sep-20
Nov-20

Sep-21
Nov-21

Sep-22
Nov-22
Jan-21

Jan-22

Jan-23
May-20

May-21

May-22
Mar-21

Mar-22

Mar-23
Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22

10.0%

12Y
10Y

15Y
20Y
25Y
30Y
1Y
2Y
3Y
4Y
5Y
6Y
7Y
8Y
9Y
3M
6M
Inflation BoG Rate USDGHS Ghana Reserves (US$bn) May-23 Dec-21

Heightened Debt to GDP •Ghana’s debt to GDP rose to 89% in 2022 from 58% in 2019

Inflationary Pressure •Led by a surge in food and energy prices coupled with a deteriorating Cedi

Credit Default •Ghana failed to pay interest on its Eurobond in 1Q23 triggering a credit event

IMF Program •Ghana is currently in talks with IMF for a US$3bn bailout

Domestic Debt Exchange •In a bid to secure IMF financing, Ghana is restructuring its existing debt with investors

Source: 1) Bloomberg, Bank of Ghana Database; 2) Bloomberg; 3) Bloomberg 9

KENYA – NAVIGATING DIFFICULT WATERS

Kenya Inflation Dynamics Weakening Kenyan Shillings Sharp spike in KES Bond Yields

12% 140 10,500 17%

135 9,500
10% 15%
130 8,500
8% 125 7,500 13%
6% 120 6,500
115 5,500 11%
4%
110 4,500 9%
2% 105 3,500
0% 100 2,500 7%

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21

Apr-22

Oct-22

Apr-23
Jan-23
Jan-21

Jan-22
Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22
Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21

Apr-22

Oct-22

Apr-23
Jan-21

Jan-22

Jan-23
Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22

5%

10Y
15Y
20Y
25Y
30Y
8Y
3M
6M
1Y
2Y
3Y
4Y
5Y
7Y

9Y
Inflation CBK rate USDKES Kenya Reserves (US$mn)- RHS May-23 Dec-21

Rising Debt to GDP •Kenya’s debt to GDP rose to 68% in 2022 from 47% in 2019

Inflationary Pressure •Led by a surge in food and energy prices coupled with a deteriorating currency

Default Concerns •Concerns around the repayment of 2024 eurobond

Constrained Dollar Receipts •Impacted by economic fallout and unable to tap external markets

IMF Agreement •Kenya expects US$1.2bn inflows to support FX reserves and funding deficit

Source: 1) Bloomberg, Central Bank of Kenya Database; 2) Bloomberg; 3) Bloomberg 10

 NIGERIAN DOMESTIC LANDSCAPE
LCY Yield Evolution Key LCY Instrument Issuers

16.0%
LCY LCY
14.0% Bond Bond
NGN 300bn NGN 115bn
12.0% Jun-22 Sep-22

10.0%

8.0% LCY LCY

Bond Bond
6.0%
NGN 115bn NGN 41bn
Dec-20 Jan-21
4.0%

2.0%
3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y 15Y 30Y

May-23 Dec-22 Jun-22 Commercial Commercial

Paper Paper

NGN 125bn NGN 90bn

Mar-23 Feb-23

We expect interest rates to tick upwards on:

▪ Aggressive FGN local borrowing,
▪ Subsidy cost pressure on the 2023 budget, Commercial Commercial
▪ Recessionary sentiments reflecting on crude Paper Paper
price and, NGN 51bn
NGN 65bn
▪ Debt consolidation related to outstanding Jun-22 Jun-22
Ways and Means

Source: FMDQ, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital 11

MTN NIGERIA COMMUNICATION PLC’S NGN115BN
13.5% 4-YEAR AND 14.5% 10-YEAR SENIOR BOND
Summary of Offer Transaction Highlights
▪ On 21st September 2022, Renaissance Capital, acting as Joint Issuing House, successfully
Close Date 21st September 2022 completed a NGN115bn 4-year and 10-year senior unsecured bond issuance (“the Transaction” or
“the Issue”) for MTN Nigeria Communications Plc (“MTNN” or “the Company” or “the Issuer”)
under its recently established NGN200bn bond programme (”the Programme”)
Issuer MTN Nigeria Communications Plc
▪ The Transaction was timed to open and close within 5 working days, thus taking advantage of
liquidity conditions and mitigating the impact of volatile markets. The Issue was tightly priced at par
Issuer Ratings AAA (GCR) / Aa+ (Agusto) with the FGN benchmark and a 35bps premium on the FGN benchmark (based on the FGN Bond
auction held 2 days prior) for the 4-year and 10-year, respectively – a remarkable feat evidencing
the Issuer’s credit strength and acceptance
Issue Ratings AAA (GCR) / Aa+ (Agusto)
▪ Given the Issuer’s AAA credit rating and market reputation, there was strong and active participation
from a wide array of institutional investors including PFAs, Asset Managers, Banks, HNIs and
Format Fixed Rate Senior Unsecured Bonds others. As a result, the Transaction orderbook was oversubscribed by over 60% from its initial
proposed issuance size of NGN100bn. The Issuer accommodated an oversubscription of up to
15%, in line with regulatory limits
Total Issue Size NGN115.0bn (including a greenshoe of 15%)
▪ The net proceeds from the bond will be utilized in financing capital expenditure, working capital and
Issue Size per other general corporate purposes
NGN10.1bn NGN104.9bn
Tranche ▪ The extreme success of the Transaction further accentuates MTNN’s leading market position and
credibility in the Nigerian market and marks another groundbreaking achievement for the Issuer.
Tenor 4 Years 10 Years The strength of Renaissance Capital’s sales and distribution platform was evident as it sold
MTNN’s credit story to investors
Coupon 13.50% per annum 14.50% per annum ▪ Renaissance Capital played a key role in navigating volatile markets, credit positioning with qualified
investors and the final pricing / allocation of bonds
Principal repayment in 4 ▪ The Transaction comes as another recognition of Renaissance Capital’s long-term commitment to
Repayment Schedule Bullet repayment
equal instalments MTNN and adds to our impressive deal portfolio as well as market-leading DCM franchise in SSA

Maturity September 2026 September 2032 Deal Analysis

Trustee Fund Bank, 0.0% Trustee, Insurance,
FM, Insur., Corporate,Manager,
Spread to Sovereign At par with FGN , 2.1% HNI, 0.5% 0.1% 0.2%
+35bps Tranche A 3.5% 4.0% Tranche B 0.4% 0.5%
Benchmark benchmark Corp.,
9.3%

Listing Platforms FMDQ Securities Exchange

Bank,
49.6% HNI,
12.0%
Governing Law Nigerian Law PFA, 98.2%
PFA,
19.5%
Renaissance Capital’s
Joint Issuing House / Bookrunner
Role

Source: Renaissance Capital

12
MYCREDIT INVESTMENTS LIMITED’S NGN1.83BN
365-DAY SERIES 1 PRIVATE NOTE AT 18.0%
Summary of Offer
Issue Date
Issuer
Guarantor
Format
Security Structure
Issue Size
Implied Yield
Redemption / Repayment
Basis
Tenor
Maturity
Governing Law
Renaissance Capital’s Role
Fair Money’s Credit Investment Highlights
Leading Nigerian digital consumer
and SME Leader – largest consumer
and SME lender in Nigeria by value
of disbursements, having recovered
strongly from the impact of the Covid
-19 lockdown
Strong risk management
and underwriting approach
– Strong model-building
approach consisting of risk
management and data
analytics for enhanced
underwriting
Rapidly expanding digital platform
and products – Fully automated and
digital model that enables high
volume business with processing of
over 6,000 loan requests per day
Source: Renaissance Capital
Transaction Summary
▪ On 19 April 2021, MyCredit Investments Limited (“Fair Money” or “the Company”) successfully
19 April 2021 completed a debut NGN1.83bn 365-day Private Note Issue (the “Transaction”) under its
NGN10bn Private Note Programme. Renaissance Capital acted as the Lead Issuing House to
MyCredit Investments Limited (Fair Money) the Transaction
Predictus SAS
✓ MyCredit Investments Limited (FairMoney) is a digital consumer and SME lender, and
Fixed Rate Private Note
provider of financial services in Nigeria
Deed of Guarantee, All-Asset Debenture
NGN1.83bn ✓ The Company is currently the #1 digital lender in Nigeria and is positioned to become a full-
service digital bank
18.0000%
✓ FairMoney’s application to loan offer process takes 5 minutes and is fully digital with no
Redemption at Par
physical touch points
365 Days
19 April 2022 ▪ The Transaction was preceded by an extensive investor engagement exercise, where
Renaissance Capital positioned the Company’s credit story and educated the investor base on
Nigerian Law the digital lending model
Lead Issuing House / Bookrunner
▪ The instrument is backed by guarantee from FairMoney’s parent company, Predictus SAS, as
well as an all-asset debenture – an innovative structure which provided comfort to investors,
enabling a successful transaction
Attractive macro and
demographic fundamentals –
Nigeria has a large and growing
▪ In addition to this, the Programme embeds both a Note and Security Trustee to further support
consumer finance market with an the enhance security structure and act in the best interest of Noteholders
estimated debt capacity of NGN1.5
trillion. The country’s banking
penetration remains low at 17.7% ▪ This inaugural issuance by FairMoney saw decent level of appetite from investors primarily
Asset Managers and Trustees, amidst the volatile interest rate environment and tapered liquidity
Solid financial track in the system
record – very strong net
interest earning with
growth of 144% from ▪ Renaissance Capital worked actively with FairMoney in structuring, documenting, positioning
2019 to 2020’. High
loan portfolio quality as well as actively marketing the issue to investors
with NPL levels below
10%
▪ The Transaction represents a landmark achievement for FairMoney and showcases
Dynamic management with sound Renaissance Capital’s ability in successfully assisting first time issuers in tapping the private
industry experience – Led by
dedicated, experience and highly
debt capital markets
qualified management team with
complementary skillset in product
development, data science, risk
management, strategy and finance
13
NIGERIAN INTERNATIONAL LANDSCAPE
FCY Yield Evolution Key FCY Instrument Issuers

16.0%

Eurobond Eurobond
14.0%

US$ 650mn US$ 500mn

Apr-21 Sep-21
12.0%

10.0%

Eurobond Eurobond
8.0%

US$ 500mn US$ 400mn

Apr-19 Oct-21
6.0%
1Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y 15Y 30Y

May-23 Dec-22 Jun-22

We expect interest rates to trend flat to upwards

in the medium term on: Eurobond Eurobond
▪ Recessionary sentiments reflecting on crude
price, US$ 350mn US$ 300mn
Jun-21 Nov-21
▪ Concerns around sovereign debt sustainability
and,
▪ Further exacerbated risk-on sentiments
Upside risks in the medium term include:
▪ Possibility of interest rate cuts in 4Q23 on
recessionary concerns and, Eurobond Eurobond
▪ Uptick in crude price
US$ 169mn CHF 150mn
May-18 Sep-20
14
Source: FMDQ, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital
 RENAISSANCE CAPITAL LEADSACCESS BANK’S HIGHLYSUCCESSFULUS$ 500M
ADDITIONAL TIER19.125% EUROBONDISSUE –THE 1ST WEST-AFRICAN AT1
EUROBOND

New Issue Terms Transaction Highlights

▪ On the 30th of September 2021, Access Bank successfully placed a debut US$ 500m 9.125% Perpetual NC5.25 Reg S / 144A
Pricing Date 30 September 2021
Additional Tier 1 offering. Renaissance Capital led this ground-breaking deal as a Joint Lead Manager / Bookrunner
Issuer Access Bank Plc ▪ The transaction represents a solid market defining issuance for Access Bank and the overall West African Eurobond space, having
achieved the following:
Status Additional Tier 1, Subordinated ✓ The first ever Additional Tier 1 (AT1) Eurobond transaction out of West Africa

Issuer Ratings B2 by Moody’s, B by Fitch, B- by S&P ✓ Lowest coupon for an AT1 placement by a single B issuer ever
✓ The second public international Additional Tier 1 Eurobond from the African continent
Market Reg S / 144A
✓ The first AT1 issue under the Central Bank of Nigeria’s recently published regulatory capital guidelines
Currency / Issue Size US$ 500m ▪ This pioneering placement by Access Bank follows a highly successful senior benchmark Eurobond issue placed earlier in
September and a focused marketing campaign, consisting of two days of 1-1 / group virtual meetings with global and domestic fixed
Coupon (s.a.) 9.125% income investors
▪ On the morning of the 30th of September, books opened for a debut AT1 US$ benchmark offering at initial price thoughts (“IPTs”) of
Non-call period / Tenor 5.25 (7 January 2027) / Perpetual “9.5%” following constructive feedback and solid IOIs from investors. The transaction momentum continued supporting a revision
price guidance to 9.125-9.250%. Thereafter, the transaction launched at 9.125%, 37.5bps below IPTs, on the back of a peak
Issue Price 100.00% orderbook of US$ 1.1bn
▪ The transaction saw strong participation from key fixed income investors across the UK, US, Europe, Nigeria as well as non-
Reset Margin +807bps
traditional investor centres including Russia and Asia. Renaissance Capital placed over US$ 575m in orders from key institutional
investors and client accounts
Listing London Stock Exchange (International Securities Market)
▪ Renaissance Capital led regulatory engagements with the Central Bank of Nigeria, the investor presentation as well as roadshow
Law English Law logistics on this transaction
▪ The deal is a landmark issue for Access Bank and deepens the tested capital market suite available to banks on the African
Renaissance Capital Role Joint Lead Manager & Bookrunner continent

Access Bank Highlights Investor Breakdown Bookbuilding Dynamics

✓ The Leading Nigerian Bank with a Strong Pan-African Footprint: Leading

By Geography
Nigerian bank with a diversified presence in 14 markets; Classified as a 30-Sep, Thursday, UK time
Systemically Important Bank in Nigeria
46 33 10 8 3 8:45 AM 09: 15 AM 13:00 PM 13:30 PM 15:00 PM 5:30 PM

✓ Robust and Sustainable Financial Performance: ROAE of 22.8%, Tier 1 Ratio

of 15.9%, Leverage Ratio of 7.8% and Total CAR of 21.3% (all Basel 2) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% US$ 1,100m
US$ 1,000m
US$ 900m
Nigeria UK Other Europe USA Other
✓ Fortress Balance Sheet Anchoring Market Access: Strong FX Risk
Management (hedges in places support asset / liability management across FX US$ 500m
balance sheet; multiple relationships including strategic DFI partners provides 2.2x
By Type US$ 300m
ample flexibility)
US$ 150m
53 33 11 3
✓ Superior Digital Platform and Information Technology: Ranked No. 1 in ATM
network, ATM cards, mobile banking subscriptions and digital loans; Won Africa’s 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Initial price Books Revised Books Coupon set at Transaction
Best Digital Banking Brand, Nigeria Award at the Global Brand Award and the Best thoughts covered, for price at the peak 9.125% with priced at par
“9.5% area” benchmark guidance deal size of at 9.125%
Mobile Banking App Nigeria Award in 2021 at the Finance Derivatives Awards; “9.125% - US$500m coupon
Banks Ams HF Other
Created the Africa FinTech Foundry (AFF) 9.25%”

Source: Renaissance Capital

 NIGERIAN MACROECONOMIC LANDSCAPE
GDP Growth Trajectory Inflation Rate Trajectory Interest Rate Dynamics

25%

3.6%

3.3%

3.2%

21%
3.0%

3.0%
3.0%

19%
2.2%

18%
20%
1.9%

16%

16%

15%
15%

15%

14%
15%
0.8%

12%
11%
10%
-1.6%

5%
-1.8%

0%

1Q18
2Q18
3Q18
4Q18
1Q19
2Q19
3Q19
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
4Q20
1Q21
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
1Q23
2023P

2024P

2025P

2026P

2023P

2024P

2025P

2026P
2021
2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2022
Nigeria Inflation rate (% YoY) CBN MPR
CBN Prime Lending Rate Treasury bills rate
10 year bond

Deteriorating FX Backdrop Weak Revenue Inhibits Budget Implementation Sharp Growth in Debt Stock

68,950
800

198%

198%
80,000 180,000
105 160,000
70,000
600
140,000

39,556
85 60,000

32,916
120,000

98%

98%
50,000

27,401
400
81%

24,387
100,000

21,726
65 40,000
58%

57%

17,360
48
46

45
44
44

80,000
43

42

41
40
39
39

38

29%
37

30,000
37

200
36
36

35
35
35

35
33

45 60,000
20,000 40,000
0 25 10,000 20,000
1Q18
2Q18
3Q18
4Q18
1Q19
2Q19
3Q19
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
4Q20
1Q21
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
1Q23

Capital Debt service Deficit FGN 0 0

expenditure Expenditure 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
FX Reserves (US$bn)-RHS USD/NGN - Nafex rate
2022 Budget (as at Nov 22) 2023 Approved Budget Naira (billion) USD (million) - RHS
USD/NGN - parallel rate

Source: 1) World Bank Data; 2) NBS; 3) CBN; 4) FMDQ, CBN & Nairametrics; 5) Budget Office
Note: Total public debt profile consists of Federal and State debt is latest available data and includes NGN23trn Ways and Means to be converted 16
OUTLOOK FOR 2023

Key Themes Key Figures

Nigeria is set to securitize NGN22.7 trillion ways and means advances from the CBN

Debt Consolidation

IMF projects Nigeria inflation to print at 18% in 2023, with key risk factors including FX
devaluation, fuel subsidy removal and energy price increases
NGN 1.68Trn1 41%2
Inflationary Pressure Currency in Expected Increase in
Circulation unemployment rate
in Nigeria in 2023

Rising global interest rates have led to risk-off sentiments towards EM and limited
borrowing capacity for local players
Rising Interest Rates

Nigeria is grappling with FX illiquidity, multiple FX markets and a perceivably

overvalued currency USD 150bn3 1.5% GDP4
Exchange Rate Required annual Average growth rate of
Convergence infrastructure Nigeria’s economy
investment (2016-2023)

The CBN piloted its cashless policy in 1Q23. and has suspended this until the end of
the year
Cashless Policy

NGN 69 Trn5 NGN 6.31 trn6

Investors are anticipating the presidential handover in May 2023 as this would usher in the Total public debt Nigeria’s debt servicing
new administration profile of Nigeria projected cost in 2023
Presidential Handover

The Nigerian government recently announced a suspension of its plans to remove its fuel subsidies
Subsidy Removal

Source: 1) CBN; 2) KPMG; 3) Nigeria’s National Integrated Infrastructure Master Plan; 4) NBS; 5) DMO; 6) Budget Office
Note: Total public debt profile consists of Federal and State debt is latest available data and includes NGN23trn Ways and Means to be converted
KEY CONTACT INFORMATION

LAGOS
Address
Total No. of Employees: 25+

Renaissance Securities Nigeria Ltd

The Wings Office Complex

6th floor, Level 11, East Tower
17A Ozumba Mbadiwe

Victoria Island
Lagos
Nigeria

Tel: +234 (1) 4485300

Fax: +234 (1) 4485353

Name Position Email Telephone

Managing Director Mobile:+44 (794) 076-

Samuel Sule SSule@rencapafrica.com
CEO, Nigeria 6996

Managing Director Mobile:+234 (803) 523-

Seun Onayiga OOnayiga@rencapafrica.com
Head of West Africa Investment Banking 7535

18