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Business Plan Genappeal
Business Plan Genappeal
GenAppeal
A business plan for
a perfect marriage
between
gene technology
and
online dating.
Luc Krols, Ph.D., MBA
Harold Francois, MBA
GenAppeal: Where technology meets biology…
1 Table of contents
1 Table of contents _____________________________________________________________________ 2
2 Executive summary ___________________________________________________________________ 4
3 The product and sales concept. _________________________________________________________ 5
3.1 Scientific basis ___________________________________________________________________ 5
3.1.1 The T‐shirt experiment. ________________________________________________________ 5
3.1.2 From gene to passion __________________________________________________________ 6
3.1.3 The concept __________________________________________________________________ 6
3.2 The sales concept. ________________________________________________________________ 7
3.2.1 The product/service combination of GenAppeal ___________________________________ 7
3.2.2 The target group ______________________________________________________________ 8
3.2.3 The distribution concept. _______________________________________________________ 8
4 The market __________________________________________________________________________ 9
4.1 General description of the ‘singles’ market __________________________________________ 9
4.2 Strong increase of the number of singles. ___________________________________________ 10
4.2.1 Age distribution _____________________________________________________________ 11
4.2.2 Marriages and divorces _______________________________________________________ 12
4.2.3 Number of potential clients in Europe. __________________________________________ 13
4.3 Agencies ______________________________________________________________________ 13
4.3.1 Dating websites ______________________________________________________________ 13
4.3.2 Trends for online‐dating ______________________________________________________ 13
4.3.3 Marriage agencies ____________________________________________________________ 14
4.4 Sales volumes __________________________________________________________________ 15
4.4.1 Assumptions ________________________________________________________________ 15
4.4.2 Dating website _______________________________________________________________ 15
4.4.3 Marriage agencies ____________________________________________________________ 15
4.4.4 Singles ______________________________________________________________________ 16
4.4.5 Overview ___________________________________________________________________ 16
4.4.5.1 Realistic/basic scenario ___________________________________________________ 16
4.4.5.2 Optimistic scenario ______________________________________________________ 17
4.4.5.3 Pessimistic scenario ______________________________________________________ 17
5 Marketing strategy __________________________________________________________________ 18
5.1 Whom do we serve ? (segmentation) ______________________________________________ 18
5.2 What do we serve? (our product) _________________________________________________ 18
5.3 How do we provide this successfully? (our business concept) _________________________ 19
5.4 What is our value proposition? (The added value) ___________________________________ 19
5.5 Pricing ________________________________________________________________________ 19
5.6 Market penetration _____________________________________________________________ 20
5.6.1 Direct contact ________________________________________________________________ 20
5.6.2 Advertising _________________________________________________________________ 20
5.7 Future sales ____________________________________________________________________ 20
5.8 Protection _____________________________________________________________________ 20
6 How GenAppeal will evolve. _________________________________________________________ 21
6.1 First phase _____________________________________________________________________ 21
6.2 Second phase __________________________________________________________________ 21
6.3 Several supporting activities _____________________________________________________ 21
6.3.1 Privacy. _____________________________________________________________________ 21
6.3.2 Quality label. ________________________________________________________________ 21
6.3.3 Security. ____________________________________________________________________ 22
GenAppeal: Business plan – Confidential disclosure to Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School – 2
GenAppeal: Where technology meets biology…
6.3.4 Legal. _______________________________________________________________________ 22
7 The enterprise: GenAppeal ___________________________________________________________ 23
7.1 Structure of the organization _____________________________________________________ 23
7.1.1 First phase __________________________________________________________________ 23
7.1.2 Second phase ________________________________________________________________ 23
7.1.2.1 Department of genetic analysis ____________________________________________ 23
7.1.2.2 Department sales and marketing __________________________________________ 23
7.1.2.3 IT department ___________________________________________________________ 23
7.1.2.4 Department general services ______________________________________________ 23
7.2 Management of the company _____________________________________________________ 23
7.3 Legal structure of GenAppeal ____________________________________________________ 24
7.4 Board of directors, Management team and Science advisory board ____________________ 24
8 Financial Plan _______________________________________________________________________ 25
8.1 Company structure _____________________________________________________________ 25
8.2 Assumptions ___________________________________________________________________ 25
8.3 Revenues ______________________________________________________________________ 25
8.4 Fixed assets ____________________________________________________________________ 26
8.4.1 Investments _________________________________________________________________ 26
8.4.2 Amortizations _______________________________________________________________ 27
8.5 Evolution of the working capital __________________________________________________ 27
8.6 Financing (Capital and Debt) _____________________________________________________ 27
8.7 Tax on profit. __________________________________________________________________ 27
8.8 Profits _________________________________________________________________________ 27
8.9 Cash Flow statement (Base scenario) ______________________________________________ 29
8.10 Income statement (Base scenario) _________________________________________________ 29
8.11 Balance (Basic Scenario) _________________________________________________________ 30
8.11.1 Conclusion ________________________________________________________________ 30
8.11.2 Valuation: Discounted cash flow method applied on GenAppeal _________________ 30
9 List of figures _______________________________________________________________________ 31
10 List of tables ________________________________________________________________________ 31
GenAppeal: Business plan – Confidential disclosure to Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School – 3
GenAppeal: Where technology meets biology…
2 Executive summary
This document describes the business plan of a new company, named GenAppeal.
Extensive research in the field of genetics and biology has shown that physical attraction
between men and women is strongly correlated with certain patterns in their DNA. The more different,
the stronger the attraction between two people and the stronger the sex appeal. Hence the name of the
company: GenAppeal.
This business plan focuses on how we match by means of database searches these differences
and compare them with other individuals in our database. We offer this bundled via our dating web
site.
We deliver as a product an electronic key corresponding to the unique information of the
customer. This enables them to find their perfect matching partner in our database, giving the best
opportunities for success.
Looking at demographic trends in Western countries we observe an ever increasing number of
singles actively looking for a partner and in doing so, spending huge amounts of money on agencies
and dating services. New technologies such as the Internet, webcam and chat channels are extremely
popular and instrumental to the ways singles communicate and get to know each other. Social
networking sites are increasingly attracting a huge number of people and are becoming a large part of
the social interaction between people in western societies. Also, psychological barriers for finding dates
via the internet have completely vanished.
The synergy that exists between these new technologies and state‐of‐the‐art biotechnological
genetic tests creates an innovative and powerful business opportunity: The GenAppeal concept.
GenAppeal will sell its service through channels such as our own Internet dating site and e.g.
via marriage agencies.
GenAppeal will give access to customers to the proper software algorithms to find the perfect
matching profile through our website. A verification of the unique key is performed through an
electronic certificate guaranteeing the authenticity and content.
A sensitivity analysis has been performed and 3 scenarios have been elaborated on in this
business plan: one based on realistic numbers, one on optimistic and one based on pessimistic numbers.
In the realistic case, after 3 years of operations, GenAppeal generates an EBITDA of about 53.000.000 €.
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GenAppeal: Where technology meets biology…
3 The product and sales concept.
3.1 Scientific basis
3.1.1 The T‐shirt experiment.
In 1995, a scientist performed an interesting experiment in which he asked a group of 44 men to
wear during 2 nights an odor‐neutral T‐shirt. These men were asked to wash only with odor‐neutral
soap and to use odor‐less after‐shave. After 2 days these T‐shirts
were placed in plastic bags and a group of 49 women were asked
to rank these T‐shirts from appealing to repulsive based on the
odor. All women in this test group were asked to perform the test
when they were in the middle of their menstrual cycle because at
that time in the cycle the olfactory organ of women is the most
sensitive. Unused T‐shirts were used as control. It turned out the
women classified the T‐shirts of men with dissimilar DNA as most appealing or attractive. Further, T‐
shirts worn by men with similar DNA were classified as unpleasant or repulsive. This was the first
evidence that also humans are sensitive to DNA dependent odors. Interestingly, when women were
taking anti‐conceptive pills, their preference reversed. Instead of dissimilar men, they preferred similar
men.
Because of the success of this first study a follow up study was performed that confirmed these
results.
From an evolutionary point of view, the fact that the odor of DNA‐dissimilar men is more
appealing (or has a stronger sex‐appeal) is very logical. By choosing a partner with dissimilar DNA, the
offspring has a more diverse set of genetic material and hence a better defense against viruses, parasites
and other pathogens.
A more recent study showed that the effect goes much further than initially anticipated.
Couples with similar DNA appear also to be less fertile and have more miscarriages. Couples with
similar DNA going for in vitro fertilization (IVF) have lower success rates than couples with dissimilar
DNA.
Several other studies have independently demonstrated that variations in the DNA create a
unique odor, also called an “olfactory fingerprint”, which influences individual recognition and mate
selection in rodents, humans, fish, lizards and birds.
The fact that this effect is observed in many different species that are evolutionary very far
away from each other and that this mechanism of odor dependent mate selection is evolutionary
conserved though several hundred millions of years, indicates its great importance.
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GenAppeal: Where technology meets biology…
It has from an evolutionary and biological point of view 3 advantages: 1) higher fertility, 2)
stronger and healthier offspring, and 3) reducing inbreeding.
For these and all of the above mentioned reasons it is not surprising that nature has equipped
our body and brains with a very strong mechanism capable of selecting the optimal complementary
odor; i.e. capable of selecting the optimal mate.
With humans however, the current social structure is far from optimal to allow this mechanism
to work properly, or even worse, to act reversely if women take contraceptive pills when choosing a
partner, making it harder for them to have kids long after they stop taking it.
3.1.2 From gene to passion
The ability to smell the ‘good’ DNA is a remarkable talent, but much like most of the instincts,
we don’t realize that they are active. Evolutionary biology teaches us how the history of human
evolution helped to shape the way we behave, think and feel.
People don’t have sex most of the time because they consciously want to pass on their genes.
People don’t find someone attractive because they want a good set of genes for their offspring… they
want it because if feels good and natural. The relationship between what feels good and natural and
gene survival may not be known to them. Few people think about the fact why things feel right and
natural and why our brains have evolved in a way that some things feel good and other things feel
repulsive. It are these skills that guided mankind for more than 100.000 years in order to be able to
make the best possible choices in order to get offsprings with the best possible chances of survival and
to develop very strong bonds between a man and a woman in order to create a safe and stable
environment for their children to grow up.
This is in perfect agreement with the established theory of “The Selfish Gene” (Richard
Dawkins, 1976). Because of the strong biological drive and the synergy between the mutual
complementarity of the DNA, this effect gets constantly reinforced. Couples are passionately attracted
to each other and a basis for a long and fertile relationship is formed. The more different some specific
variations in the DNA, the stronger and healthier the offspring will be and the more likely the chance
for a successful reproduction.
3.1.3 The concept
By determining the degree of complementarity of those specific variations using state of the art
biotechnological methods for DNA analysis, we are able to select out of a population those
combinations that have the highest chance for maximal attraction, for a successful relationship and
which maximizes the chance for healthy children.
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GenAppeal: Where technology meets biology…
This is an added value and a clear differentiator to the standard matching using occupational
and recreational preferences.
This enables people to make an informed decision upfront of meeting a person and will
dramatically increase the chance of meeting the right partner.
3.2 The sales concept.
3.2.1 The product/service combination of GenAppeal
The product we are selling consists of:
9 The GenAppeal profile: based on the analysis of the DNA coming e.g. from a hair or a mouth
swap of a person, GenAppeal will determine the variations in the DNA. This service is
GenAppeal’s core business. The customer pays for this service and is then able to compare his
or her own result with all the other results in the database in order to find the perfect
complementary match.
9 The GenAppeal dating website: Through GenAppeal’s dating website, the customers are able to
compare and match their result with other people’s result. Along with ordinary criteria such as
salary, education, hair color, sport, etc. which are common on most dating sites, GenAppeal
offers a unique advantage to select also those partners that would be also based on biology a
good match, whom they, based on smell, would not find repulsive, but more appealing, more
attractive, more stable.
9 GenAppeal guaranteed gender check: A big problem on many dating sites is that men subscribe
to these sites as being a woman and vice versa, in order e.g. to learn the tricks of others... The
lack of knowledge of who people are really talking to is a big problem on current dating sites.
Recent publications on the subject (Washington Post, Sunday, June 4, 2006; Page B03) call for
more regulation and protection of people against fraud and false ID. GenAppeal’s guaranteed
gender check can help overcome these problems.
9 GenAppeal DNA fingerprint: Because of the nature and the uniqueness of a genetic fingerprint
we can guarantee to our customers that users can’t subscribe themselves using multiple nick‐
names pretending to be different persons. This unique feature has the possibility to allow
GenAppeal to become the “Verisign™” of the dating world.
In order to block the possibility of fraud or deception and in order to prevent other dating sites
from copying our service, this genetic code is only available to the customers as a digital encrypted
code. The actual matching is done using proprietary software at the servers of GenAppeal, well
protected by a strong firewall. A second reason for supplying only an encrypted code is to guarantee
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GenAppeal: Where technology meets biology…
the privacy of customers. This allows us to do matching without the genetic information of the clients
having to leave the company.
3.2.2 The target group
GenAppeal focuses on people actively looking for a partner.
This includes:
9 People with a busy professional schedule with little or no time to look through classical
approaches but who also want to maximize their chance of finding a partner. GenAppeal gives
them the possibility to find in an efficient way a partner that matches them. By means of an
intelligent preselection the chance for a successful relationship is significantly increased.
9 Divorced or divorcing people who want to rebuild their life. GenAppeal give them bigger
chances for success; a second chance in their life.
9 People from the “internet generation” for whom it is normal to look for social contact via
internet. The digital techniques are an addition to the classical methods. GenAppeal fits here
perfectly to match people swiftly and securely via the internet.
9 Basically everybody who is looking for a partner and who wants to maximize his/her chances in
an intelligent way.
3.2.3 The distribution concept.
Problems: Problems:
‐ A huge amount of data Singles actively
‐ Expensive through trial and error
‐ Danger for fraud looking
‐ No guarantee for success
Looking for a Partner via People looking for a partner
dating site. through a counselor
Dating Counseling
Websites organisations
GenAppeal Our added value
Our added value ‐ Shortening of search time => cost
‐ Efficient selection tool saving
‐ Gender Check, DNA‐ID ‐ Higher chance for success
Figure 1: The distribution model
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GenAppeal: Where technology meets biology…
In order to sell our product, GenAppeal focuses at the way people from our target groups are
looking for their ideal partner: via the internet via our dating website and for a smaller percentage
marriage agencies.
4 The market
4.1 General description of the ‘singles’ market
A survey performed by CBS (Central Bureau for Statistics; http://www.cbs.nl/nl‐
NL/default.htm) in the Netherlands pointed out that there are in The Netherlands approximately
2.300.000 singles on a population of +/‐ 16.000.000 people. Analyses determined that 65% of these singles
are effectively looking for a partner.
The following figure (Figure 2) visualizes the percentage of singles over the total population in
The Netherlands:
Figure 2: Proportion singles, January 1st, 2003
This graph shows that 40% of 25 year‐old men are single. This percentage decreases to 15% at
the age of 50. The situation is rather different for women. At the age of 25 years, 25% of the women are
singles. This percentage decreases to 10% for women of 50 years. The difference in percentage between
men and women is however affected by the fact that divorced women mostly have the custody over the
children and are in this calculation not considered as single. They are, however, actively looking to
rebuild their lives and hence a possible client for GenAppeal.
As a European average (see Table 1 ) we can state that 12% of the population is single.
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GenAppeal: Where technology meets biology…
Table 1: Demographic data on the percentage of singles in the European countries. This table
summarizes a report of the European Commission of January 2005 for the European Population
Conference 2005.
Number
Country Population % singles of singles
Netherlands 16,491,461 14% 2,374,770
Belgium 10,379,067 14% 1,453,069
Germany 82,422,299 17% 13,682,102
France 60,876,136 12% 7,244,260
CENTRAL EUROPE
United Kingdo 60,609,153 13% 7,636,753
Austria 8,192,880 14% 1,138,810
Switzerland 7,523,934 15% 1,158,686
Luxembourg 474,413 12% 56,455
Ireland 4,062,235 12% 483,406
TOTAL 251,031,578
4.2 Strong increase of the number of singles.
Until 2035 we expect an increase of singles in the Netherlands of 1 million, evenly distributed
over men and women. The total number of singles will then reach a platform of 3,5 million.
This increase of the number of singles can be explained by the fact that youngsters more often
live on their own for a while, while elders remain living independently as well.
A second explanation can be found in the expected increase of unmarried cohabitants that will
finally lead to singles. It has been proven that married couples stick longer together than cohabitant
relationships.
Another observation is the increase of singles in the age category above 30 years (See next
figure)
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GenAppeal: Where technology meets biology…
Figure 3: Growth of the number of singles between January 1st, 1995 and January 1st, 2003
As such we can observe that during a period of 8 years the number of singles between 30 and 49
years old in the Netherlands increased with 100.000 individuals.
4.2.1 Age distribution
While studying the age dispersion of the Belgian population, we can determine that the
population between 25 and 50 is:
‐ Approximately 1.800.000 men
‐ Approximately 1.850.000 women
This totals to a population of 3.650.000 in the age range between 25 and 50.
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GenAppeal: Where technology meets biology…
Figure 4: Belgian age pyramid for males (blue) and females (red) x 10.000
4.2.2 Marriages and divorces
According to the Belgian statistics (http://www.statbel.fgov.be/home_nl.asp) there are
apparently as many divorces as there are marriages. The proportion of divorces over marriages is
approximately 75%.
Table 2: Absolute and relative values for marriages and divorces in Belgium
Absolute values 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Marriages 50552 47759 44393 44171 45123 42110 40434 41805
Brussels Region 4356 4366 4270 4705 5029 4768 4812 5302
Flemish Region 30228 28328 25631 24749 24994 23191 22269 23313
Waloon Region 15968 15065 14492 14717 15100 14151 13353 13190
Divorces 28402 26748 26503 26423 27002 29314 30628 31373
Brussels Region 4292 4046 3863 4005 4262 4910 5381 5620
Flemish Region 14684 13994 13973 13961 14389 15165 15728 16386
Waloon Region 9426 8708 8667 8457 8351 9239 9519 9367
Relative values 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Number of marriages per 1000 inhabitants 4.98 4.69 4.35 4.32 4.40 4.10 3.92 4.04
Brussels Region 4.59 4.59 4.47 4.92 5.24 4.94 4.91 5.34
Flemish Region 5.14 4.80 4.33 4.17 4.20 3.89 3.72 3.89
Waloon Region 4.81 4.53 4.35 4.41 4.52 4.22 3.97 3.92
Number of divorces per 1000 inhabitants 2.80 2.63 2.60 2.59 2.64 2.86 2.97 3.03
Brussels Region 4.53 4.26 4.05 4.20 4.44 5.09 5.49 5.67
Flemish Region 2.50 2.37 2.36 2.36 2.42 2.55 2.63 2.73
Waloon Region 2.84 2.62 2.61 2.54 2.50 2.76 2.83 2.78
This implies 2 major learning points for GenAppeal:
‐ Many marriages do not succeed and GenAppeal can contribute in a better partner selection
‐ During the process of divorce or once the divorce is final, singles emerge on the market looking
eagerly to find a new and better relationship. But due to the social obligations (e.g. work,
children) or excessive workloads, there is a lack of time that keeps these singles from building
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GenAppeal: Where technology meets biology…
up a new social life. The internet and GenAppeal’s technology are the perfect combination to
overcome these problems and to find a perfect match.
It is interesting as well to observe that inhabitants of Belgium are marrying at an older age than
10 years ago. This represents a great potential for GenAppeal. The older one gets, the more difficult it
becomes to find a partner (professional pressure, less meeting spots, etc…). GenAppeal can fulfill an
important role in facilitating the search for the ideal partner.
4.2.3 Number of potential clients in Europe.
Out of the preceding we can clearly observe that the share of singles in the population increases.
Table 1 clearly shows that about 45,000,000 people in Europe are single. Knowing that 65% of
them are actively looking for a partner gives a potential market of 29,250,000 persons.
4.3 Agencies
4.3.1 Dating websites
Dating sites are a cheap, automated and anonymous version of the traditional dating agencies
Examples of existing websites in Belgium and the Netherlands:
9 Match.com with +12.000.000 members worldwide
9 Relatieplanet with 343.073 active users (on a total of +/‐ 900.000)
9 Rendezvous.be
9 Parship.be with 1.164.373 members
9 Meetic.be
9 www.30plussers.nl / www.flirttoday.nl:
9 date4u.be with 10.754 members
9 www.match4me.be / www.match4me.nl
Accurate market size figures are available, but entering the term ‘dating’ in the Google search
engine results in 48.000.000 hits. This can be an indicator about the size of this gigantic market.
Subscription fees for these websites vary between 10€ and 100€ monthly. Payment is done
through credit card.
4.3.2 Trends for online‐dating
When looking at the trends for online dating we can see from Google trends
(http://www.google.com/trends) that there is a very strong increase starting in January 2006 for people
looking in Google for online dating.
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GenAppeal: Where technology meets biology…
Figure 5: Google trends for ʺonline datingʺ showing a steep increase after January 1st, 2006. Letters
indicate possible events associated with sudden changes in the profile (data not shown but available
via Google trends). Interestingly, English and Dutch appear to be the top 2 most used languages for
searching for “online dating”.
This also shows that people are using the internet more and more to look for a partner, but also,
more importantly, that people don’t feel reluctant anymore to look for a partner on the Internet.
4.3.3 Marriage agencies
According to the yellow pages, 115 marriage agencies exist in Belgium. Some of them own over
10 branches. According to the Government of Economic Affairs, there are 559 registered marriage
agencies. Duet, Valerie Dax and or PartnerSelection are among the most famous. The client portfolio of
marriage agencies in Belgium is estimated at approximately 200.000 members. PartnerSelection has a
customer base of 1.700 members of which 57% are men. Membership fees vary heavily between 50€ and
1.000€ monthly. The price is much related to the services provided and the required number of
meetings, but methods and pricing schemes vary between agencies.
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GenAppeal: Where technology meets biology…
The analysis above indicates that singles in search for a partner, and thus happiness, are willing
to spend a lot of money.
GenAppeal will address the clients of these marriage agencies as a first target population. In
return to the marriage agencies, a small percentage of the profit will be the fee for the marriage agency.
4.4 Sales volumes
We will start small by targeting in the first year only Belgium, The Netherlands and
Luxemburg. The language of the website is a strong determinant for the countries that we will be able
to serve and target. In the first stage the website will be in English, Dutch, French and German, but our
focus and marketing will be focused on BENELUX. The following years, more languages and localized
versions for the surrounding countries will become available and marketing efforts will focus on the
surrounding countries. Since most of the sales are done via the website we only take those sales into
account for doing the calculations. Sales through marriage agencies are not included in this calculation.
4.4.1 Assumptions
9 We assume that the sales in the starting phase would best be started via our own dating site and
through marriage consulting agencies since they already have an established set of potential
clients. Agreements will be made so that we are no direct competitors to their core business and
that both parties gain from it.
9 Our target from this population is 10% of their clients in the first year.
4.4.2 Dating website
GenAppeal will focus on our own dating website. This will be the main source of sales. We
believe that we could reach between 0.5% (pessimistic scenario) and 2% (optimistic scenario) of the
singles in the first year.
Our website will be the main contact point with our customers. With 3.884.000 singles in
Belgium, The Netherlands and Luxemburg this would account for between 19,421 and 77,686 customers
in the first year.
4.4.3 Marriage agencies
We focus on the big marriage agencies with a good track record such as:
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GenAppeal: Where technology meets biology…
1. Valerie Dax (5 agencies)
2. PartnerSelection
3. Affinita
4. Agence 1+1
5. HappyPeople (7 agencies)
6. Accent Partners (2 agencies)
7. De Brugse databank
8. Duet (3 agencies)
9. Partner Prestige (2 agencies)
10. Singles (4 agencies)
11. Unicis (2 agencies)
12. Wel (3 agencies)
4.4.4 Singles
9 For the realistic/basic scenario we assume that we can target 1% of the singles.
9 For the optimistic scenario we assume that we can target 2% of the singles
9 For the pessimistic scenario we assume that we can target 0.5% of the singles.
Still in this case that would mean 38,843 individuals for the BENELUX alone in the realistic
scenario.
4.4.5 Overview
4.4.5.1 Realistic/basic scenario
Table 3: Estimated sales volumes for the first 5 years for the realistic scenario.
Realistic scenario
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Number of
Country Population % singles singles % Hits % Hits % Hits % Hits % Hits
Netherlands 16,491,461 14% 2,374,770 1% 23,748 52,245 57,469 63,216 69,538
Belgium 10,379,067 14% 1,453,069 1% 14,531 31,968 35,164 38,681 42,549
Germany 82,422,299 17% 13,682,102 0% 0 1% 136,821 150,503 165,553 182,109
France 60,876,136 12% 7,244,260 0% 0 1% 72,443 79,687 87,656 96,421
CENTRAL EUROPE
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GenAppeal: Where technology meets biology…
4.4.5.2 Optimistic scenario
Table 4: Estimated sales volumes for the first 5 years for the optimistic scenario
Optimistic scenario
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Number of
Country Population % singles singles % Hits % Hits % Hits % Hits % Hits
Netherlands 16,491,461 14% 2,374,770 2% 47,495 113,989 136,787 164,144 196,973
Belgium 10,379,067 14% 1,453,069 2% 29,061 69,747 83,697 100,436 120,523
Germany 82,422,299 17% 13,682,102 0% 0 2% 273,642 328,370 394,045 472,853
France 60,876,136 12% 7,244,260 0% 0 2% 144,885 173,862 208,635 250,362
CENTRAL EUROPE
4.4.5.3 Pessimistic scenario
Table 5: Estimated sales volumes for the first 5 years for the pessimistic scenario
Pessimistic scenario
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Number of
Country Population % singles singles % Hits % Hits % Hits % Hits % Hits
Netherlands 16,491,461 14% 2,374,770 0.5% 11,874 24,935 26,182 27,491 28,865
Belgium 10,379,067 14% 1,453,069 0.5% 7,265 15,257 16,020 16,821 17,662
Germany 82,422,299 17% 13,682,102 0.0% 0 1% 68,411 71,831 75,423 79,194
France 60,876,136 12% 7,244,260 0.0% 0 1% 36,221 38,032 39,934 41,931
CENTRAL EUROPE
United Kingdo 60,609,153 13% 7,636,753 0.0% 0 1% 38,184 40,093 42,098 44,202
Austria 8,192,880 14% 1,138,810 0.0% 0 0 1% 5,694 5,979 6,278
Switzerland 7,523,934 15% 1,158,686 0.0% 0 0 1% 5,793 6,083 6,387
Luxembourg 474,413 12% 56,455 0.5% 282 593 622 654 686
Ireland 4,062,235 12% 483,406 0.0% 0 0 1% 2,417 2,538 2,665
TOTAL 251,031,578 1 35,228,312 19,421 183,601 206,685 217,019 227,870
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GenAppeal: Where technology meets biology…
5 Marketing strategy
5.1 Whom do we serve ? (segmentation)
Our target group are singles actively looking for a partner, including those who are looking for
help through marriage agencies and those who are looking for a partner via the classical dating sites
using current days new communication technologies. These people can use our service in order to find
the “perfect match” via the GenAppeal website.
Figure 6: The value chain: Whom do we serve and how do we provide this?
5.2 What do we serve? (our product)
We offer the service to determine the genetic profile in the DNA of our clients. This profile is
compared to stored profiles in the database with all the existing profiles. The genetic code is encrypted
and only a code is given to the clients. When a customer wants tero check with other candidates that
will match with his/h profile, he/she will have to login to our website and check for available partners.
Mailings with new members that match above a certain percentage will also be one of the ways that
customers will get to know possible candidates.
GenAppeal: Business plan – Confidential disclosure to Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School – 18
GenAppeal: Where technology meets biology…
5.3 How do we provide this successfully? (our business concept)
The customer first creates an account on our website. When the registration process is
completed, the customer will be able to download a personalised PDF document. Next to instructions
on how to collect DNA, this document has all the information of the clients and has already a unique
barcode corresponding to the ID of the customers. The customer can print this PDF and tape, according
to the instructions, e.g. a few hairs (with root) on it and send it back to GenAppeal. Alternatively,
GenAppeal can supply inexpensive kits to take DNA samples from the mouth mucosa.
GenAppeal checks the credit card information of the client prior to sending the PDF. When the
sample arrives correctly in the labs, GenAppeal performs the DNA test on the sample.
In order to persuade the marriage agencies to sell our product to their clients we will offer the
possibility to pay also via those wedding agencies (by means of a voucher) with a small margin going to
the agencies. The customers still will have to log in to our website and create the account themselves.
The wedding agency is only a facilitator and a channel for marketing.
5.4 What is our value proposition? (The added value)
We offer our clients extra certainty with a strong scientific basis for a good choice of a partner.
Combining classical matching techniques with insight in their own genes maximizes the possibility for
success. Also for wedding agencies this is an added value because they will, by means of this scientific
method, be able to offer extra tools to their valued customers. This will increase the value of the total
package they can offer.
5.5 Pricing
The price is put to 100€ for agencies en 125€ for end users. This positions our product not as a
“cheap” product, still the price is not too high, so that people don’t consider it to be a high risk.
When asking some people for the amount they would be willing to pay for this service, we
mostly got answers in the range of 100€ to 3000€. Typically, the older the respondents were, the more
they were willing to pay. Although a more elaborated market analysis might be desirable, we think that
125€ would be a good starting price. Also, similar services involving DNA analysis such as paternity
testing, ranges from 100€ to 200€.
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GenAppeal: Where technology meets biology…
5.6 Market penetration
5.6.1 Direct contact
Because we will operate in the beginning, regarding the DNA matching, in a “Blue Ocean” and
because on this part no competitors are on the market, we will have to use this opportunity to establish
a strong market position quickly.
Direct contact via agencies and via our website is important to achieve this goal.
5.6.2 Advertising
Making people familiar with the name GenAppeal and the concept of GenAppeal will be done
via the agencies (people of the agencies will be trained) and via a clear explanation on our website.
Advertising via websites, Google/Yahoo will attract people to our website. However, we believe
that in the (digital) community of singles, the word of mouth will travel at least as fast as regular
advertising.
T‐shirts with catchy slogans regarding GenAppeal will be made and given to people at parties,
university students, beach events etc.
5.7 Future sales
In the first years, the DNA profile will be based on an initial set of genetic variations tested. In
later stages we will refine the matching and add extra genes to this profile and create a GenAppeal
version 2.0 profile. Users will be able to upgrade their profile to this new profile at a reduced cost. We
expect to create 3 versions over a period of 5 years.
5.8 Protection
Because we don’t give the actual genotype to our customers but only a unique digital key that
matches in our database to their genetic profile, we make sure that we use our “first mover advantage”
by creating a lock in situation and high switching costs. The GenAppeal “Verisign” concept will very
likely convince other dating sites to allow users to use the “Verisign” functionality of the profile to
identify them on their website, in a similar way normal protected websites do using VeriSign™.
GenAppeal will offer this as a service to these dating websites. The matching of profiles however, will
initially remain unique for the GenAppeal website, although a model where other dating sites take a
subscription to this matching service can be implemented. This would allow users of other dating sites
to use their GenAppeal genetic profile, gender‐check and unique GenAppeal‐Verisign key in
combination with other dating sites.
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GenAppeal: Where technology meets biology…
6 How GenAppeal will evolve.
6.1 First phase
In the first phase, GenAppeal will focus on streamlining the work flow. While the initial tests
are outsourced, GenAppeal will start designing and planning the installation of our own labs so that
when the business proves to be successful, we can immediately start working at our own labs.
Operational excellence will be key to the success.
6.2 Second phase
When the first year of GenAppeal proves to be successful and the market seems to respond very
well to GenAppeal’s offer, we will install our own labs and expand our activities. Not only will we
grow on the local market, but we will expand and will target other countries in the EU and possibly in
the US.
6.3 Several supporting activities
6.3.1 Privacy.
It is obvious that the protection of the privacy can’t be at risk under any condition.
Consumer groups will analyze and follow this up very closely and meticulously. The danger
exists that activists will seize every chance to put the company in a bad light. It thus would be best to
establish a communication procedure that allows us to react fast and sufficiently.
Social corporate responsibility and good business ethics are highly important for GenAppeal and
will be sufficiently advertised.
The privacy will be supported by a sound quality control system that will guarantee a consequent
treatment and implementation. Security audits on a regular basis will guarantee the privacy of customer
data and will give trust to people who could have doubts about this.
6.3.2 Quality label.
The quality and the scientific basis must be internationally recognized. This will be the only
way to short‐circuit associations with the turbid surroundings of marriage agencies, relation
conciliation and dating sites.
Although the company will be rather small, nevertheless some quality certificates have to be
acquired, e.g. ISO 9000, Q*For, CEDEO, VCA, ...
Quality certificates must not only have a role in the field of marketing, but must also support
the privacy and accuracy.
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GenAppeal: Where technology meets biology…
Not only the product has to be of high quality, the same applies to the complete logistical chain.
The analysis must be carried out correctly, but must also arrive with the correct customer. Traceability
is necessary.
In the case of complaints, we must be able either to prove that these are unfounded, or to
accurately define the cause.
6.3.3 Security.
Security in all of its aspects must be guaranteed in all circumstances: the genetic and personal
data must remain inaccessible for hackers in the special servers and measurements to prevent
disclosure should be state of the art.
Security (for physical burglary) will depend on a qualitatively high‐level technique and an
access control with code will be provided.
By the implementation of the analyses on the DNA in the hair root or mouth swap, the staff is
not exposed to serum or blood and the risk of possible infections is minimal.
6.3.4 Legal.
The laws concerning the protection of personal life must be respected and state of the art
measurements to achieve this will be taken.
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GenAppeal: Where technology meets biology…
7 The enterprise: GenAppeal
7.1 Structure of the organization
7.1.1 First phase
In the first phase of GenAppeal, low‐cost operation is of great importance. As long as the
concept is not proven and there is no good cash flow, GenAppeal will operate as a “garage venture”. At
this stage it is important to restrict the fixed costs to a minimum. Specific services such as IT,
accountancy or legal will be bought.
In this respect we will aim at existing BioTech companies, e.g. from the Ghent BioTech cluster,
to possibly rent laboratories and use of infrastructure. After the short first phase, we can grow further in
our own (rented) laboratories such as the BioIncubator of the Flemish Institute for Biotechnology (VIB).
7.1.2 Second phase
If the business concept of GenAppeal proves to be successful, it will be necessary to structure
the organization. The organization will be subdivided in 4 departments:
7.1.2.1 Department of genetic analysis
This department takes care of all genetic analyses. Also this is the department that carries out
R&D‐activities:
Validation of the analysis methods
Follow‐up of the literature for potential new applications of DNA‐analyses.
Follow‐up of the evolutions in analysis methods.
Developing of new genetic profiles in order to stay ahead of the competition and to encourage
customers to get a more up‐to‐date GenAppeal profile.
7.1.2.2 Department sales and marketing
Responsible for sales and marketing activities
7.1.2.3 IT department
Maintaining of the IT infrastructure (Internet site, databases), developing of new applications
(chat applications, databases, securities, support for our customers)
7.1.2.4 Department general services
Accountancy, secretary, administration, …
7.2 Management of the company
The two founders of GenAppeal will act as CEO and CFO of the company.
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GenAppeal: Where technology meets biology…
7.3 Legal structure of GenAppeal
GenAppeal will be established as an N.V. (a public limited liability company).
7.4 Board of directors, Management team and Science advisory board
Board of directors
o The board of directors will be formed by a balanced set of people who give a significant
financial or scientific contribution to the creating and success of GenAppeal.
Management team
o Luc Krols (CEO) and Harold François (CFO) currently will be the initial management
team but further expansion with business development persons and e.g. a CSO, CIO
will be necessary when the company matures. Luc is a bio‐engineer with 10 years of
experience as CTO in a biotech start‐up company. Harold is an economist, with 10
years of experience in financial audit.
Scientific advice: Science advisory board
o Two well known and respected scientists from Europe and the US with a long track
record in human genetics have comitted to contribute scientifically to GenAppeal. Due
to confidentiality reasons these names are not mentioned in this business case.
As long as the company generates no firm cash flows, the members of the board of directors
will not be compensated for. As GenAppeal becomes successful, this investment of time will be
compensated for considerably.
GenAppeal: Business plan – Confidential disclosure to Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School – 24
GenAppeal: Where technology meets biology…
8 Financial Plan
8.1 Company structure
The company GenAppeal will be founded under the umbrella of an N.V. (Naamloze Vennootschap).
An N.V. has a minimum capital of 62.500€.
8.2 Assumptions
The enterprise GenAppeal is very dependent on Marketing & Sales. This is key to the success of
GenAppeal. Because of this it is really important that the different scenarios are fully analyzed in depth
regarding the sales volumes and the sensitivity analysis. The following scenarios are taken into account:
• An optimistic scenario: here we hope to convince 2% of the possible dating market to become a
customer of GenAppeal.
• The realistic (or base) scenario: this is what we really expect to happen. A 1% market share.
• A pessimistic scenario: only 0.5% of the singles will become a customer of GenAppeal.
The following table (Table 6) gives an overview of the evolution of the sales volumes for the first 5 years
through Europe.
Table 6: Evolution of sales volumes.
Analysis Pessimistic Base Optimistic
Year 1 19.421 38.843 77.686
Year 2 183.601 371.086 757.708
Year 3 271.622 565.877 1.224.615
Year 4 294.943 622.464 1.547.462
Year 5 313.587 684.711 1.973.840
8.3 Revenues
The revenue of GenAppeal will be based in the first phase on a fixed price of 100€ or 125€ per
analysis. In this financial analysis we will however only take into account the sales through the
GenAppeal website for 125€ per analysis and will neglect the sales volumes from marriage agencies.
This because we want to avoid any double counting and because the main focus is the GenAppeal
dating site. Turnover realized through marriage agencies will mount up to a small fraction of the total
turnover. The final impact on the turnover therefore is minor.
When we take the sales volumes into account, this will result in the following budgeted sales
figures as summarized in Table 7.
Table 7: Turnover for the 3 different scenarios for the first 5 years.
Turnover Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Pessimistic 2.427.684 22.950.084 33.952.733 36.867.932 39.198.353
Base 4.855.369 46.385.705 70.734.565 77.808.021 85.588.823
Optimistic 9.710.737 94.713.557 153.076.847 193.432.714 246.730.002
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GenAppeal: Where technology meets biology…
The following graph shows the evolution of the turnover of the company for year 1 to 5.
Turnover
300.000.000
250.000.000
200.000.000
150.000.000
100.000.000
50.000.000
0
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
8.4 Fixed assets
8.4.1 Investments
Because of the nature of the product of GenAppeal (Genetic analysis) and the high degree of
automation of the process, a large proportion of the investment consists of equipment, research and
development (R&D) and information technology (IT) investments. Table 8 gives a detailed overview of
the investments in GenAppeal.
Table 8: Investment and amortization table.
Investments Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Office equipment (4yrs) 200,000 200,000 400,000
IT infrastructure (3yrs) 126,000 160,000
Machinery and equipment
(3yrs) 450,000 200,000 350,000 200,000
Total 576,000 560,000 550,000 600,000
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GenAppeal: Where technology meets biology…
(3yrs)
Total 192,000 362,000 528,667 503,333 383,333
8.4.2 Amortizations
− Furniture, cars: linear over 4 years
− Installations, machines and equipment: linear over 3 years
− Phone, IT & other: linear over 3 years
8.5 Evolution of the working capital
Because of the ease of payment methods (Visa etc.) the invoicing to clients is fast and easy.
There are no real stocks to take into account. Payment with suppliers is set to 30 days after invoice. Our
budgeted balance (see Table 11) shows that there is really enough working capital available.
8.6 Financing (Capital and Debt)
The financing of GenAppeal will be twofold:
Financing in the capital of GenAppeal by its founding members and the FFFs (Family, Friends
and Fools) up to an amount of 300.000€. This capital will consist out of 300.000 shares with a nominal
value of 1€ per share.
For the additional financing of GenAppeal, banks will be contacted. According to our financial
analysis we might need above the equity an amount of 600.000€. We put this at a rather high amount
but we will make these debts only when it will be really necessary. This in order to avoid interest
expenses for cash overdraft.
We decided not to involve financing from business angels and venture capitalists because we
believe that the current model for financing will be sufficient.
8.7 Tax on profit.
The tax rate used is 33.99%. Operational losses will be transferred to the next fiscal year and
appropriately balanced.
8.8 Profits
The profits obtained will either be reinvested (especially in the early years) or later be shared as
dividends.
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GenAppeal: Where technology meets biology…
8.9 Cash Flow statement (Base scenario)
The above assumptions result in cash flows summarized in the following table (Table 9).
Table 9: Cash flows for the base scenario for GenAppeal for the first 5 years.
TREASURY POSITION Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Operational result 2.784.041 34.782.631 53.019.764 58.262.338 64.188.246
+ Depreciations 52.000 236.167 465.333 571.667 475.833
‐ Change in working capital need ‐480.681 ‐1.815.411 ‐1.205.269 ‐350.136 ‐385.150
Cash Flow from operations 2.355.359 33.203.387 52.279.828 58.483.868 64.278.929
‐ Reimbursments ‐55.301 ‐91.262 ‐116.307 ‐148.226 ‐188.903
‐ Interests ‐146.683 ‐128.051 ‐103.006 ‐71.087 ‐30.410
‐ Investments ‐576.000 ‐560.000 ‐550.000 ‐600.000 0
‐ Taxes ‐896.702 ‐11.782.557 ‐17.991.698 ‐19.785.025 ‐21.813.664
+ Capital raised 300.000 0 0 0 0
+ Capital subsidies 0 0 0 0 0
+ Financing 600.000 0 0 0 0
Cash Flow 1.580.673 20.641.517 33.518.818 37.879.530 42.245.952
Treasury position 1.580.673 22.222.190 55.741.007 93.620.538 135.866.490
8.10 Income statement (Base scenario)
The following table (Table 10) shows the results based on the basic scenario.
Table 10: Income statement for the base scenario for GenAppeal for the first 5 years.
P&L STATEMENT Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Product 1 4.855.369 46.385.705 70.734.565 77.808.021 85.588.823
Product 2 0 0 0 0 0
Turnover 4.855.369 46.385.705 70.734.565 77.808.021 85.588.823
Formation expenses 0 0 0 0 0
Services rendered by third parties 138.000 140.760 143.575 146.447 149.376
Infrastructure and operational costs 198.600 202.572 206.623 210.756 214.971
Marketing 252.000 257.040 262.181 267.424 272.773
‐ Services and other goods 588.600 600.372 612.379 624.627 637.120
‐ Renumerations and other social costs 459.654 1.489.394 2.490.175 2.787.786 3.169.860
‐ Depreciations 52.000 236.167 465.333 571.667 475.833
‐ Provisions 0 0 0 0 0
‐ Others 0 0 0 0 0
Operational result 2.784.041 34.782.631 53.019.764 58.262.338 64.188.246
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GenAppeal: Where technology meets biology…
8.11 Balance (Basic Scenario)
The following balance (Table 11) is based on the basic scenario.
Table 11: Balance for the base scenario for GenAppeal for the first 5 years.
BALANCE SHEET Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
ASSETS
Formation expenses 0 0 0 0 0
Intangible fixed assets 0 0 0 0 0
Tangible fixed assets 524.000 847.833 932.500 960.833 485.000
Accounts receivable 801.136 3.826.821 5.835.602 6.419.162 7.061.078
Cash 1.580.673 22.222.190 55.741.007 93.620.538 135.866.490
Total assets 2.905.809 26.896.844 62.509.109 101.000.533 143.412.568
EQUITY AND LIABILITIES
Capital 300.000 300.000 300.000 300.000 300.000
Capital subsidies 0 0 0 0 0
Reserves 0 0 0 0 0
Accumulated P/L 1.740.656 24.612.679 59.537.740 97.943.965 140.288.136
Debts payable after 1 year 453.436 337.129 188.903 0 0
Debts payable within 1 year 91.262 116.307 148.226 188.903 0
Accounts payable 320.454 1.530.728 2.334.241 2.567.665 2.824.431
Negative treasury 0 0 0 0 0
Total equity and liabilities 2.905.809 26.896.844 62.509.109 101.000.533 143.412.568
8.11.1 Conclusion
The data shown above lead to the conclusion that GenAppeal will generate positive cash flows
in all scenarios.
8.11.2 Valuation: Discounted cash flow method applied on GenAppeal
When we apply the discounted cash flow method to calculate the value creation of the company
we used a WACC of 25%. This rather high value was used because GenAppeal is a startup company in
a high risk market. We considered a growth percentage of 0.5% after the first 5 years. This gives for the
base scenario of GenAppeal a value of 61,888,000 € with a founding capital of 300,000 € and an external
dept of 600,000 €.
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GenAppeal: Where technology meets biology…
9 List of figures
10 List of tables
Table 1: Demographic data on the percentage of singles in the European countries. This table summarizes a
report of the European Commission of January 2005 for the European Population Conference 2005. ________ 10
Table 2: Absolute and relative values for marriages and divorces in Belgium ___________________________ 12
Table 3: Estimated sales volumes for the first 5 years for the realistic scenario. _________________________ 16
Table 4: Estimated sales volumes for the first 5 years for the optimistic scenario ________________________ 17
Table 5: Estimated sales volumes for the first 5 years for the pessimistic scenario _______________________ 17
Table 6: Evolution of sales volumes. ___________________________________________________________ 25
Table 7: Turnover for the 3 different scenarios for the first 5 years.___________________________________ 25
Table 8: Investment and amortization table. _____________________________________________________ 26
Table 9: Cash flows for the base scenario for GenAppeal for the first 5 years. __________________________ 29
Table 10: Income statement for the base scenario for GenAppeal for the first 5 years. ____________________ 29
Table 11: Balance for the base scenario for GenAppeal for the first 5 years. ____________________________ 30
GenAppeal: Business plan – Confidential disclosure to Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School – 30