Manila, September 2011

Shuttling between vulnerability and adaptation: insights from Mindanao (Philippines)

Prof. Sabine HENRY

MAPDIP project (2011-2015)

EPAM project (2010-2014)

DISCLAIMER: The views expressed in this paper are the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), or its Board of Governors, or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this paper and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. The countries listed in this paper do not imply any view on ADB's part as to sovereignty or independent status or necessarily conform to ADB's terminology.

Climate-induced migration
In the literature Drought Tropical cyclone activities Sea-level Rise Massive and significant movements

Poverty Scarcity of natural resources Political conflicts

From Perch-Nielsen, 2004

More nuanced and complete studies are needed

The Upper Pulangi Valley The Philippines

BUKIDNON Pulangi Upper Watershed

Bukidnon Province

Location of study site

Upper Pulangi watershed (AFN, 1993) Cities & sitios Pulangi river & tributaries Province Country

Visayans from Cebu (1,5

million in Mindanao)

Dumagats (migrants) from Luzon

Migrations waves

Bendum

Grasslands
Malaybalay

19th (from Lanao)

Miarayon
Bukidnon

1500s 1940 migrations 1948 - late1980s migrations 1960 - late 1980s migrations Late 1980s - migrations
0 5 10 20 km

Andres Ignacio ESSC

Q1: Which is the main driver of changes in water budget? CC or LUCC ?

Q2: Who are at risk, but also why are they at risk to migrate? Migrants
Crops Drought Education Nutrition Social network + ++ + ++ ++

Indigenous People
+

Mixed HH
+ + + +

Q3: According to the importance of the impact, we assume different adaptive responses. True? Need for deeper understanding of the vulnerabilities

Adaptive responses to a drought

For migrants Migration to areas with accessible basic services Migration to a larger center Migration to availability of labor Migration to roots/origins For indigenous peoples (IPs) Abaca bank or reactivation of traditional practices Migration to areas w/ available water Migration to areas with accessible basic services (social network effect)

Mixed HH Similar to migrant ? Similar to IP ? Or mixed behavior?

Adaptation by means of migration but different patterns coexists.

Migrant Destination Duration Expectations Local or regional Long-term Economic benefits Indigenous People Local Short-term Survival strategies

Q4: Different patterns of migration by destination, duration and expectations?

Q5: Who are most resilient to climate perturbations?

Q6: In our indicators of vulnerability, do we need to include individual expectations? Which groups is the most vulnerable? Q7: In terms of policy: is it more useful to focus on adaptation rather than reduction in vulnerability?

Next steps : a new project being funded

Objective: to determine factors that give rise to increased human vulnerability to water-related extremes Study areas - Upper Pulangi communities (upland villages) - Davao (a regularly-flooded part of Davao city)
Partnerships being forged:

Next steps : a new project being funded

WP1: Climate Change and Land Use change
Which is the main driver of changes in water budget? CC or LUCC ? Hydrological models for water budget need real-time records of rainfall: Automated weather stations and river discharge monitoring stations (AdDU) = low cost in critical areas

WP2: Migration, resilience and vulnerabilities

Who are at risk, but also why are they at risk ? Different adaptive answers? Different patterns of migration by destination, duration and expectations? Who are most resilient to climate perturbations? Who are most vulnerable?

WP3: Policy
In terms of policy: is it more useful to focus on adaptation rather than reduction in vulnerability?

Shuttling between vulnerability and adaptation: insights from Mindanao (Philippines)

Prof. Sabine HENRY Sabine.henry@fundp.ac.be