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Mainstreet Research Survey - Alberta

About Mainstreet

Founded in 2010, Mainstreet Research is recognized as one of Canada’s top


public opinion and market research firms. Since our founding, we have been
providing actionable and data-driven insights to our clients to help them make
their most important evidence-based strategic decisions.
Mainstreet has an impressive track record in accurately forecasting election
results in Canada and the United States and has become a trusted source
for comprehensive market research, analysis and advice. Our insights are
found in major media outlets across the country.
Our diverse team has decades of experience in conducting both quantita-
tive and qualitative research, ranging from broad national surveys, to focus
groups, to membership surveys, and all points in between.
Mainstreet Research is a proud corporate member of CRIC and exceeds all
Canadian and international standards for market research and public opinion
research.

Methodology

The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted from


Monday, May 1st to Tuesday, May 2nd, 2023, among a sample of 1524 adults,
18 years of age or older, living in Alberta. The survey was conducted using
automated telephone interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents were interviewed
on landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the
voting population in Alberta.
The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.5% at the 95% confidence level. Mar-
gins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up 100% due
to rounding.
This poll was commissioned by and is the exclusive property of Mainstreet
Research. Any reproduction, in whole or in part of this report or the data con-
tained herein is expressly prohibited without written authorization by Main-
street Research.
If a provincial election were held today, how would you
vote? (All voters)

2% 10 %
3%
0%

45 %
All voters

40 %

UCP, Smith NDP, Notley Green Party, Jordan Wilkie


Response
Alberta Party, Morishita Another Party Undecided
broken out by age, gender, and region

Gender Age Region


Total Male Female Other/Prefer Not to say 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary CMA Edmonton CMA Rest of AB
UCP, Smith - - - - - - - - - - -
NDP, Notley - - - - - - - - - - -
Green Party, Jordan Wilkie - - - - - - - - - - -
Alberta Party, Morishita - - - - - - - - - - -
Another Party - - - - - - - - - - -
Undecided - - - - - - - - - - -
Unweighted Frequency 1524 666 775 83 123 258 390 753 962 198 364
Weighted Frequency 1524 725 758 31 271 443 414 386 488 457 570

broken out by education and income

Education Income
Total Highschool or Less College University $50k or less $50-75k $75-100k $100k+
UCP, Smith - - - - - - - -
NDP, Notley - - - - - - - -
Green Party, Jordan Wilkie - - - - - - - -
Alberta Party, Morishita - - - - - - - -
Another Party - - - - - - - -
Undecided - - - - - - - -
Unweighted Frequency 1524 205 480 839 330 297 303 594
Weighted Frequency 1524 510 506 499 365 286 270 593
If a provincial election were held today, how would you
vote? (Decided and Undecided voters)

3% 2% 4%
1%

48 %
Decided and Undecided

41 %

UCP, Smith NDP, Notley Green Party, Jordan Wilkie


Response
Alberta Party, Morishita Another Party Undecided
broken out by age, gender, and region

Gender Age Region


Total Male Female Other/Prefer Not to say 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary CMA Edmonton CMA Rest of AB
UCP, Smith - - - - - - - - - - -
NDP, Notley - - - - - - - - - - -
Green Party, Jordan Wilkie - - - - - - - - - - -
Alberta Party, Morishita - - - - - - - - - - -
Another Party - - - - - - - - - - -
Undecided - - - - - - - - - - -
Unweighted Frequency 1524 666 775 83 123 258 390 753 962 198 364
Weighted Frequency 1524 725 758 31 271 443 414 386 488 457 570

broken out by education and income

Education Income
Total Highschool or Less College University $50k or less $50-75k $75-100k $100k+
UCP, Smith - - - - - - - -
NDP, Notley - - - - - - - -
Green Party, Jordan Wilkie - - - - - - - -
Alberta Party, Morishita - - - - - - - -
Another Party - - - - - - - -
Undecided - - - - - - - -
Unweighted Frequency 1524 205 480 839 330 297 303 594
Weighted Frequency 1524 510 506 499 365 286 270 593
If a provincial election were held today, how would you
vote? (Decided voters)

4% 2%
1%

Decided Voters
50 %
43 %

UCP, Smith NDP, Notley Green Party, Jordan Wilkie


Response
Alberta Party, Morishita Another Party
broken out by age, gender, and region

Gender Age Region


Total Male Female Other/Prefer Not to say 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary CMA Edmonton CMA Rest of AB
UCP, Smith - - - - - - - - - - -
NDP, Notley - - - - - - - - - - -
Green Party, Jordan Wilkie - - - - - - - - - - -
Alberta Party, Morishita - - - - - - - - - - -
Another Party - - - - - - - - - - -
Unweighted Frequency 1451 651 727 73 122 251 376 702 916 188 347
Weighted Frequency 1451 718 711 27 269 435 395 356 470 432 554

broken out by education and income

Education Income
Total Highschool or Less College University $50k or less $50-75k $75-100k $100k+
UCP, Smith - - - - - - - -
NDP, Notley - - - - - - - -
Green Party, Jordan Wilkie - - - - - - - -
Alberta Party, Morishita - - - - - - - -
Another Party - - - - - - - -
Unweighted Frequency 1451 189 461 801 305 286 292 568
Weighted Frequency 1451 482 493 481 335 280 261 580
If a Federal Election were held today, which party would you
vote for? (All voters)

1% 8%
18 %
3%
1%
13 %

All voters

55 %

Liberal, Trudeau Conservative, Poilievre NDP, Singh Green, May


Response
People's, Bernier Other Undecided
broken out by age, gender, and region

Gender Age Region


Total Male Female Other/Prefer Not to say 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary CMA Edmonton CMA Rest of AB
Liberal, Trudeau - - - - - - - - - - -
Conservative, Poilievre - - - - - - - - - - -
NDP, Singh - - - - - - - - - - -
Green, May - - - - - - - - - - -
People’s, Bernier - - - - - - - - - - -
Other - - - - - - - - - - -
Undecided - - - - - - - - - - -
Unweighted Frequency 1524 666 775 83 123 258 390 753 962 198 364
Weighted Frequency 1524 725 758 31 271 443 414 386 488 457 570

broken out by education and income

Education Income
Total Highschool or Less College University $50k or less $50-75k $75-100k $100k+
Liberal, Trudeau - - - - - - - -
Conservative, Poilievre - - - - - - - -
NDP, Singh - - - - - - - -
Green, May - - - - - - - -
People’s, Bernier - - - - - - - -
Other - - - - - - - -
Undecided - - - - - - - -
Unweighted Frequency 1524 205 480 839 330 297 303 594
Weighted Frequency 1524 510 506 499 365 286 270 593

broken out by vote intention

Vote Intention
Total UCP, Smith NDP, Notley Green Party, Jordan Wilkie Alberta Party, Morishita Another Party Undecided
Liberal, Trudeau - - - - - - -
Conservative, Poilievre - - - - - - -
NDP, Singh - - - - - - -
Green, May - - - - - - -
People’s, Bernier - - - - - - -
Other - - - - - - -
Undecided - - - - - - -
Unweighted Frequency 1524 655 633 9 32 24 171
Weighted Frequency 1524 686 600 6 43 23 156
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable view of Premier
Danielle Smith, leader of the UCP? (All voters)

5%

30 %

38 %
All voters

18 %
10 %

Strongly Favourable Somewhat Favourable Somewhat Unfavourable


Response
Strongly Unfavourable Don't Know
broken out by age, gender, and region

Gender Age Region


Total Male Female Other/Prefer Not to say 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary CMA Edmonton CMA Rest of AB
Strongly Favourable - - - - - - - - - - -
Somewhat Favourable - - - - - - - - - - -
Somewhat Unfavourable - - - - - - - - - - -
Strongly Unfavourable - - - - - - - - - - -
Don’t Know - - - - - - - - - - -
Unweighted Frequency 1524 666 775 83 123 258 390 753 962 198 364
Weighted Frequency 1524 725 758 31 271 443 414 386 488 457 570

broken out by education and income

Education Income
Total Highschool or Less College University $50k or less $50-75k $75-100k $100k+
Strongly Favourable - - - - - - - -
Somewhat Favourable - - - - - - - -
Somewhat Unfavourable - - - - - - - -
Strongly Unfavourable - - - - - - - -
Don’t Know - - - - - - - -
Unweighted Frequency 1524 205 480 839 330 297 303 594
Weighted Frequency 1524 510 506 499 365 286 270 593

broken out by vote intention

Vote Intention
Total UCP, Smith NDP, Notley Green Party, Jordan Wilkie Alberta Party, Morishita Another Party Undecided
Strongly Favourable - - - - - - -
Somewhat Favourable - - - - - - -
Somewhat Unfavourable - - - - - - -
Strongly Unfavourable - - - - - - -
Don’t Know - - - - - - -
Unweighted Frequency 1524 655 633 9 32 24 171
Weighted Frequency 1524 686 600 6 43 23 156
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable view of Opposi-
tion leader Rachel Notley, leader of the NDP? (All voters)

4%

30 %

42 % All voters

15 %
9%

Strongly Favourable Somewhat Favourable Somewhat Unfavourable


Response
Strongly Unfavourable Don't Know
broken out by age, gender, and region

Gender Age Region


Total Male Female Other/Prefer Not to say 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary CMA Edmonton CMA Rest of AB
Strongly Favourable - - - - - - - - - - -
Somewhat Favourable - - - - - - - - - - -
Somewhat Unfavourable - - - - - - - - - - -
Strongly Unfavourable - - - - - - - - - - -
Don’t Know - - - - - - - - - - -
Unweighted Frequency 1524 666 775 83 123 258 390 753 962 198 364
Weighted Frequency 1524 725 758 31 271 443 414 386 488 457 570

broken out by education and income

Education Income
Total Highschool or Less College University $50k or less $50-75k $75-100k $100k+
Strongly Favourable - - - - - - - -
Somewhat Favourable - - - - - - - -
Somewhat Unfavourable - - - - - - - -
Strongly Unfavourable - - - - - - - -
Don’t Know - - - - - - - -
Unweighted Frequency 1524 205 480 839 330 297 303 594
Weighted Frequency 1524 510 506 499 365 286 270 593

broken out by vote intention

Vote Intention
Total UCP, Smith NDP, Notley Green Party, Jordan Wilkie Alberta Party, Morishita Another Party Undecided
Strongly Favourable - - - - - - -
Somewhat Favourable - - - - - - -
Somewhat Unfavourable - - - - - - -
Strongly Unfavourable - - - - - - -
Don’t Know - - - - - - -
Unweighted Frequency 1524 655 633 9 32 24 171
Weighted Frequency 1524 686 600 6 43 23 156
In terms of United Conservative Party Leader Danielle
Smith, do you think her positions are too far right, too far
left or just about right? (All voters)

44 %
47 %
All voters

10 %

Too far right Too far left


Response
About right
broken out by age, gender, and region

Gender Age Region


Total Male Female Other/Prefer Not to say 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary CMA Edmonton CMA Rest of AB
Too far right - - - - - - - - - - -
Too far left - - - - - - - - - - -
About right - - - - - - - - - - -
Unweighted Frequency 1524 666 775 83 123 258 390 753 962 198 364
Weighted Frequency 1524 725 758 31 271 443 414 386 488 457 570

broken out by education and income

Education Income
Total Highschool or Less College University $50k or less $50-75k $75-100k $100k+
Too far right - - - - - - - -
Too far left - - - - - - - -
About right - - - - - - - -
Unweighted Frequency 1524 205 480 839 330 297 303 594
Weighted Frequency 1524 510 506 499 365 286 270 593

broken out by vote intention

Vote Intention
Total UCP, Smith NDP, Notley Green Party, Jordan Wilkie Alberta Party, Morishita Another Party Undecided
Too far right - - - - - - -
Too far left - - - - - - -
About right - - - - - - -
Unweighted Frequency 1524 655 633 9 32 24 171
Weighted Frequency 1524 686 600 6 43 23 156
In terms of NDP Leader Rachel Notley do you think her po-
sitions are too far right, too far left or just about right? (All
voters)

13 %

41 %

All voters

46 %

Too far right Too far left


Response
About right
broken out by age, gender, and region

Gender Age Region


Total Male Female Other/Prefer Not to say 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary CMA Edmonton CMA Rest of AB
Too far right - - - - - - - - - - -
Too far left - - - - - - - - - - -
About right - - - - - - - - - - -
Unweighted Frequency 1524 666 775 83 123 258 390 753 962 198 364
Weighted Frequency 1524 725 758 31 271 443 414 386 488 457 570

broken out by education and income

Education Income
Total Highschool or Less College University $50k or less $50-75k $75-100k $100k+
Too far right - - - - - - - -
Too far left - - - - - - - -
About right - - - - - - - -
Unweighted Frequency 1524 205 480 839 330 297 303 594
Weighted Frequency 1524 510 506 499 365 286 270 593

broken out by vote intention

Vote Intention
Total UCP, Smith NDP, Notley Green Party, Jordan Wilkie Alberta Party, Morishita Another Party Undecided
Too far right - - - - - - -
Too far left - - - - - - -
About right - - - - - - -
Unweighted Frequency 1524 655 633 9 32 24 171
Weighted Frequency 1524 686 600 6 43 23 156

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