[ HW 1 Solution ]

Chapter 4.

12. a. Step 1: Use the counting rule for combinations:

æ 59 ö 59! (59)(58)(57)(56)(55)
ç ÷= = = 5,006,386
è 5 ø 5!(59 - 5)! (5)(4)(3)(2)(1)

Step 2: There are 35 ways to select the red Powerball from digits 1 to 35

Total number of Powerball lottery outcomes: (5,006,386) x (35) = 175,223,510

b. Probability of winning the lottery: 1 chance in 175,223,510

= 1/(175,223,510) = .000000005707

P(A  B) .40
30. a. P(A B)    .6667
P(B) .60

P(A  B) .40
b. P(B A)    .80
P(A) .50

c. No because P(A | B)  P(A)

39. a. Yes, since P(A1  A2) = 0

b. P(A1  B) = P(A1)P(B | A1) = .40(.20) = .08

P(A2  B) = P(A2)P(B | A2) = .60(.05) = .03

c. P(B) = P(A1  B) + P(A2  B) = .08 + .03 = .11

.08
d. P(A1 B)   .7273
.11

.03
P(A 2 B)   .2727
.11
45. a. Let M = event that a putt is made

P(M) = 983,764/1,613,234 = .6098

Note: The probability that a putt is missed is P(M C ) = 1- P(M ) = 1-.6098 = .3902

b. Let A= event that a PGA Tour player has a par putt

P( A M )  .640

P( A M C )  .203
P(M )P(A M ) (.6098)(.640)
P(M A) = = = .8313
P(M )P(A M ) + P(M )P(A M )
C C
(.6098)(.640) + (.3902)(.203)

c. Let B = event that a PGA Tour player has a birdie putt

P( B M )  .188

P(B M C )  .734
P(M )P(B M ) (.6098)(.188)
P(M | B) = = = .2859
P(M )P(B M ) + P(M C )P(B M )
C
(.6098)(.188) + (.3902)(.734)

d. These probabilities indicate that there is a much higher probability of making a par putt than
making a birdie putt. One reason is that par putts have an extra stroke than birdie putts.
Because of the extra stroke, par putts tend to be closer to the hole than birdie putts and there is
thus a higher probability of making a par putt. For example, the average length of all putts made
is slightly less than 5 feet while the average length of birdie putts made is 21 feet.

In addition, the authors of the article referenced in this exercise conclude that PGA Tour players
tend to view missing a par as a loss and making a birdie as a gain. Thus, to avoid the loss of
missing out on a par, the golfers are more conservative when they have a birdie putt. As a result,
even with par and birdie putts of the same length, players tend to miss more birdies to insure that
they will be close enough to have a very high probability of making a par.
Chapter 5.
21. a. E(x) =  x f (x) = 0.05(1) + 0.09(2) + 0.03(3) + 0.42(4) + 0.41(5) = 4.05

b. E(x) =  x f (x) = 0.04(1) + 0.10(2) + 0.12(3) + 0.46(4) + 0.28(5) = 3.84

c. Executives: 2 =  (x - )2 f(x) = 1.25

Middle Managers: 2 =  (x - )2 f(x) = 1.13

d. Executives:  = 1.12

Middle Managers:  = 1.07

e. The senior executives have a higher average score: 4.05 vs. 3.84 for the middle managers. The
executives also have a slightly higher standard deviation.

35. a. f (0) + f (1) + f (2) = BINOM.DIST(2,20,.2,TRUE) = .2061

b. f (4) = BINOM.DIST(4,20,.2,FALSE) = .2182

c. 1 - [ f (0) + f (1) + f (2) + f (3) ] = 1 - BINOM.DIST(3,20,.2,TRUE) = .5886

d.  = n p = 20 (.20) = 4
 58. Since the shipment is large we can assume that the probabilities do not change from trial to trial
and use the binomial probability distribution.

a. n = 5

5
f (0)    (0.01)0 (0.99)5 = BINOM.DIST(0,5,.01,FALSE) = .9510
0

 5
b. f (1)    (0.01)1 (0.99) 4 = BINOM.DIST(1,5,.01,FALSE) = .0480
1

c. 1 - f (0) = 1 - .9510 = .0490

d. No, the probability of finding one or more items in the sample defective when only 1% of the
items in the population are defective is small (only .0490). I would consider it likely that more
than 1% of the items are defective.

Chapter 6.

9. a.

 =5

35 40 45 50 55 60 65

b. .683 since 45 and 55 are within plus or minus 1 standard deviation from the mean of 50 (Use the
table or see characteristic 7a of the normal distribution).

c. .954 since 40 and 60 are within plus or minus 2 standard deviations from the mean of 50 (Use the
table or see characteristic 7b of the normal distribution).
19.  = 328 and  = 92

x 500  328

a. z   1.87
 92

P(x > 500) = P(z > 1.87) = 1 - P(z ≤ 1.87) = 1 - .9693 = .0307

The probability that the emergency room visit will cost more than $500 is .0307.

Using Excel: 1-NORM.DIST(500,328,92,TRUE) = .0308

x 250  328

b. z   .85
 92

P(x < 250) = P(z < -.85) = .1977

The probability that the emergency room visit will cost less than $250 is .1977.

Using Excel: NORM.DIST(250,328,92,TRUE) = .1983

x 400  328

c. For x = 400, z   .78
 92

x 300  328

For x = 300, z   .30
 92

P(300 < x < 400) = P(z < .78) - P(z < -.30) = .7823 - .3821 = .4002

The probability that the emergency room visit will cost between $300 and $400 is .4002.

Using Excel: NORM.DIST(400,328,92,TRUE) - NORM.DIST(300,328,92,TRUE) = .4026

d. The lower 8%, or area = .08, occurs for z = -1.41

x    z = 328 – 1.41(92) = $198.28

For a patient to have a charge in the lower 8%, the cost of the visit must have been $198.28 or less.

Using Excel: NORM.INV(.08,328,92) = 198.73

 60  80
23. a. z  2 P(z ≤ -2) = .0228. So P(x < 60) = .0228
10

Using Excel: NORM.DIST(60,80,10,TRUE) =.0228

60  80
b. At x = 60 z  2 Area to left is .0228
10

75  80
At x = 75 z  .5 Area to left is .3085
10

P(60  x  75) = .3085 - .0228 = .2857

Using Excel: NORM.DIST(75,80,10,TRUE)-NORM.DIST(60,80,10,TRUE) =.2858

90  80
c. z 1 P(z ≤ 1) = P(x ≤ 90) = .1587
10

Using Excel: 1-NORM.DIST(90,80,10,TRUE) =.1587

Therefore 15.87% of students will not complete on time.

(60) (.1587) = 9.522

We would expect 9.522 students to be unable to complete the exam in time.

37.  = 4.5 and  = .82

x-m 5 - 4.5
a. z= = = .61
s .82

P (x < 5) = P (z < -.61) = .7291

 Using Excel: NORM.DIST(5,4.5,.82,TRUE) = .7290

x-m 3- 4.5
b. z= = = -1.83
s .82

P (x ³ 3) = P (z ³ -1.83) = 1 - P (z £ -1.83) = 1 - .0336 = .9664

Using Excel: 1-NORM.DIST(3,4.5,.82,TRUE) = .9663

x-m 4 - 4.5
c. For x = 4, z = = = -.61
s .82

x-m 3- 4.5
For x = 3, z = = = -1.83
s .82

P(3 £ x £ 4) = P (z £ -.61) - P (z £ -1.83) = .2709 - .0336 = .2373

Using Excel: NORM.DIST(4,4.5,.82,TRUE) – NORM.DIST(3,4.5,.82,TRUE) = .2373

d. 85% of the weekly cargo volumes can be handled without requiring the port to extend

operating hours; 15% of the time the tons of cargo is so large it requires the port to extend operating
hours.

The upper 15%, or area = 1-.15 = .85 occurs for z = 1.04

x    z = 4.5 + 1.04(.82) = 5.35 tons

A weekly volume of 5.35 tons or more will require the port to extend operating hours.

Using Excel: NORM.INV(.85,4.5,.82) = 5.3499

39. a. Mean monthly revenue = ($368)(330)/12 = $10,120

b.  = 10,120 and  = 2200

x-m 12,000 -10,120

z= = = .85
s 2200

P (x > 12,000) = P (z > .85) = 1 - P (z £ .85) = 1 - .8023 = .1977

Using Excel: 1-NORM.DIST(12000,10120,2200,TRUE) = .1964

x-m 7,500 -10,120

c. z= = = -1.19
s 2200

P (x < 7,500)= P (z < -1.19) = .1170

Using Excel: NORM.DIST(7500,10120,2200,TRUE) = .1168

d. Mean monthly revenue = ($420)(330)/12 = $11,550

 = 11,550 and  = 2500

x-m 12,000 -11,550

z= = = .18
s 2500

P (x > 12,000) = P (z > .18) = 1 - P (z £ .18) = 1 - .5714 = .4286

x-m 7,500 -11,550

z= = = -1.62
s 2500

P (x < 7,500)= P (z < -1.62)= .0526

Current annual revenue = ($368)(330) = $121,400

New annual revenue = ($420)(330) = $138,600

The increase in annual revenue $138,600 - $121,400 = $17,160 (14.1%) and the higher
probability of monthly revenues over $12,000 make the upgraded minibar service worthwhile.