Biased Samples

The US Congress is debating some gun control laws. You are asked to conduct an opinion
survey.
Because hunters are the ones that are most affected by the gun control laws, you went to a
hunting lodge
and interviewed the members there. Then you reported that in a survey done by you, about 97
percent
of the respondents were in favor of repealing all gun control laws.
A week later, the Congress took up another bill: “Should
working pregnant women be given a maternity leave of one year
with full pay to take care of newborn babies?” Because this issue
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􀁈􀀃􀁋􀁌􀁊􀁋􀀐􀁕􀁌􀁖􀁈􀀃􀁒􀁉􀂿􀁆􀁈􀀃􀁆􀁒􀁐􀁓􀁏􀁈􀁛􀁈􀁖􀀃􀁌􀁑􀀃􀁜􀁒􀁘􀁕􀀃􀁆􀁌􀁗􀁜􀀃􀁄􀁑􀁇􀀃􀁌􀁑􀁗
􀁈􀁕-
viewed several working women of child-bearing age. Again you reported that in a survey
done by you,
about 93 percent of the respondents were in favor of the one-year maternity leave with full
pay.
In both of these situations you picked a biased sample by choosing people who would have
very
strong feelings on one side of the issue. How can we be sure that pollsters we listen to and
read about
don’t make the same mistake you did? The answer is that unless the pollsters have a strong
reputation
for statistically accurate polling, we can’t. However, we can be alert to the risks we take
when we don’t
ask for more information or do more research into their competence.
EXERCISES 6.1
Basic Concepts
6-1 What is the major drawback of judgment sampling?
6-2 Are judgment sampling and probability sampling necessarily mutually exclusive?
Explain.
6-3 List the advantages of sampling over complete enumeration, or census.
6-4 What are some disadvantages of probability sampling versus judgment sampling?
Applications
6-5 Farlington Savings and Loan is considering a merger with Sentry Bank, but needs
shareholder
approval before the merger can be accomplished. At its annual meeting, to which all
shareholders
are invited, the president of FS&L asks the shareholders whether they approve of the deal.
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􀀃􀁖􀁄􀁐􀁓􀁏􀁈􀀃􀁖􀁗􀁄􀁗􀁌􀁖􀁗􀁌􀁆􀀃􀁒􀁕􀀃􀁄􀀃􀁓􀁒􀁓􀁘􀁏􀁄􀁗􀁌􀁒􀁑􀀃􀁓􀁄􀁕􀁄􀁐􀁈􀁗􀁈􀁕􀀢
6-6 Jean Mason, who was hired by Former Industries to determine employee attitudes toward
the
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Mason’s study was based on statistical sampling, and from the beginning data, it was clear
(or so Jean thought) that the employees were favoring a unionized shop. Jean’s report was
shrugged off with the comment, ‘‘This is no good. Nobody can make statements about
employee
sentiments when she talks to only a little over 15 percent of our employees. Everyone
knows you have to check 50 percent to have any idea of what the outcome of the union vote
will be. We didn’t hire you to make guesses.” Is there any defense for Jean’s position?
6-7 A consumer protection organization is conducting a census of people who were injured
by
a particular brand of space heater. Each victim is asked questions about the behavior of the
heater just before its malfunction; this information generally is available only from the
victim,
because the heater in question tends to incinerate itself upon malfunction. Early in the census,
it is discovered that several of the victims were elderly and have died. Is any census of the
victims now possible? Explain.

RANDOM SAMPLING
In a random or probability sample, we know what the chances are that an element of the
population will
or will not be included in the sample. As a result, we can assess objectively the estimates of
the population
characteristics that result from our sample; that is, we can describe mathematically how
objective
our estimates are. Let us begin our explanation of this process by introducing four methods of
random
sampling:
1. Simple random sampling
2. Systematic sampling
3. 􀀶􀁗􀁕􀁄􀁗􀁌􀂿􀁈􀁇􀀃􀁖􀁄􀁐􀁓􀁏􀁌􀁑􀁊
4. Cluster sampling
Simple Random Sampling
Simple random sampling selects samples by methods that allow
each possible sample to have an equal probability of being picked
and each item in the entire population to have an equal chance of
being included in the sample. We can illustrate these requirements
with an example. Suppose we have a population of four students in a seminar and we want
samples
of two students at a time for interviewing purposes. Table 6-2 illustrates all of the possible
combinations
of samples of two students in a population size of four, the probability of each sample being
picked, and the probability that each student will be in a sample.
Our example illustrated in Table 6-2 uses a 􀂿nite population of
four students. By 􀂿nite, we mean that the population has stated or
limited size, that is to say, there is a whole number (N) that tells
An example of simple random
sampling
Defining finite and with
replacement
TABLE 6-2 CHANCES OF SELECTING SAMPLES OF TWO STUDENTS FROM A
POPULATION OF
FOUR STUDENTS
Students A, B, C, and D
Possible samples of two people: AB, AC, AD, BC, BD, CD
Probability of drawing this sample of two people must be
P(AB) = 1
6
P(AC) = 1
6
P(AD) = 1
6 (There are only six possible samples of two people)
P(BC) = 1
6
P(BD) = 1
6
P(CD) = 1
6
Probability of this student in the sample must be
P(A) = ½ [In Chapter 4, we saw that the marginal probability
is equal to the sum of the joint probabilities of the
events within which the event is contained:
P(A) = P(AB) + P(AC) + P(AD) = ½
P(B) = ½
P(C) = ½
P(D) = ½