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APJCP Volume 22 Issue 12 Pages 3889-3896
APJCP Volume 22 Issue 12 Pages 3889-3896
APJCP Volume 22 Issue 12 Pages 3889-3896
3889
Breast Cancer in Iraq
Department of Statistics and Informatics, College of Computer Science & Mathematics, University of Mosul, Mosul, Iraq.
*For Correspondence: muzahim_alhashime@uomosul.edu.iq
Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention, Vol 22 3889
Muzahem M Y AL-Hashimi
(MOHESR) and World Health Organization (WHO), (ASIRs) (age groups 0-19, 20-29, 30-39, 40-49, 50-59,
launched a National Program for Early Detection and 60-69, 70+). The ASIRs were calculated using the World
Down Staging of Breast Cancer in 2000. Referral centers standard population. The incidence rate was determined
and specialist clinics for the early diagnosis of breast cancer by year, by 5-year periods, as well as for the whole study
have since been established in all Iraqi governorates’ main period.
hospitals (Al-Alwan and Mualla, 2014). Early Detection Variations in breast cancer incidence rates over time
and Down Staging is a comprehensive program to provide were assessed using the joinpoint regression analysis
high quality primary and secondary health services and (version 4.9.0.0). Joinpoint regression was applied to
conduct early detection and examinations for all women determine the time points essential changes in the trends
aged 20 years and over to reducing mortality rates from occurred. The year was used as a predictor variable and
breast cancer, moving from diagnosing the disease in its log-transformed ASR and ASIR as the response variable.
late stages (third and fourth) to diagnose it in the early The errors are assumed to have constant variance. The
stages (first and second), where recovery prospects are Grid Search Method with uncorrelated errors was used
better, and treatment expenses are lower. to select the most appropriate number of joinpoints for
Monitor cancer trends over time are one of the most the data. The minimum number of joinpoints was set to
important functions for health care planning and disease zero and the maximum was set to four. For significance
control. This study aims to explore the time trends in the testing, the Monte Carlo Permutation number of joinpoints
incidence of breast cancer in Iraq in twenty years period method was employed. The annual percent change (APC)
(2000 to 2019) to assist health officials and decision- and average annual percent change (AAPC) in cancer
makers to put in place strategies to controlling breast incidence with 95% CI were computed to evaluate the
cancer growth and enhance women’s health. magnitude and direction of the trends from 2000 to 2019.
The significance level was set at a p-value ≤ 5% for all
Materials and Methods analyses.
Table 1. Age-Specific and Age-Standardized Incidence Rates (1/100,000) of Breast Cancer among Women in Iraq
(2000-2019) by Period
Age group Period Total Overall
2000-2004 2005-2009 2010-2014 2015-2019 changes (%)
0-19 0.074 0.078 0.002 0.016 0.039 -78.378
20-29 2.7517 3.159 4.481 4.309 3.7683 56.594
30-39 23.927 24.22 28.957 30.761 27.449 28.562
40-49 71.118 79.53 92.769 95.576 87.275 34.391
50-59 87.761 102.444 134.815 156.529 126.037 78.358
60-69 68.612 92.291 143.529 158.477 122.218 130.976
70+ 37.742 53.092 93.249 125.444 81.537 232.372
Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) 26.282 31.31 41.692 46.392 37.883 76.516
2003 and 2012; 2000-2003 (APC -2.375 %; 95 % CI age group (232.372), followed by females aged 60-69
-11.055, +7.152 %); 2003-2012 (APC +5.388 %; 95 % (130.976) (Table 1). The time trends of the ASRs were
CI +3.268, +7.551 %); 2012–2019 (APC +2.850 %; 95 performed by year. Table 2 and Figure 2 shows the
% CI +0.322, +5.442 %). The trend changes in the annual evolution of the annual ASR of breast cancer in Iraq
incidence between 2000 and 2019 raised by 116.301%. in the period 2000-2019. In the age group 0–19 years,
Breast cancer incidence rates increased with age, APC decreased statistically not significant over the
with the largest increase was observed in females 70+ period 2000–2019 (APC -5.0350%; 95% CI, -12.369%
Figure 1. Joinpoint Regression Analysis of Age-Standardized Incidence Rates (1/100,000) of Breast Cancer for Iraqi
Women, All Ages, 2000–2019.
Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention, Vol 22 3891
Muzahem M Y AL-Hashimi
Figure 2. Joinpoint regression analysis of age-specific incidence rates (1/100,000) of breast cancer for Iraqi women,
2000–2019; age group (20-29), A; age group (30-39), B; age group (40-49), C; age group (50-59), D; age group (60-
69), E; age group (70+), F.
Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention, Vol 22 3893
Muzahem M Y AL-Hashimi
Figure 3. Age-Standardized Incidence Rates (1/100,000) of Breast Cancer for Iraqi Women Compared to Other
Countries.
to -1.025%), no joinpoint detected. In the age group were observed, 2003 and 2010; 2000-2003 (APC -8.911
20–29 years, APC increased statistically not significant %; 95 % CI -16.852, -0.213 %); 2003-2010 (APC +2.862
over the period 2000–2019 with AAPC +0.986% (95% %; 95 % CI -0.262, +6.083 %); 2010-2019 (APC +2.153
CI -5.859,+8.329). Two joinpoints were identified, 2003 %; 95 % CI +0.466, +3.869 %). In the age group 40-49
and 2006; 2000-2003 (APC -21.869 %; 95 % CI -37.083, years, AAPC increased statistically significant from 2000
-2.976 %); 2003-2006 (APC +20.575 %; 95 % CI -21.810, to 2019 with APC +2.162% (95 % CI +0.529; +3.822%).
+85.938 %); 2006-2019 (APC +2.852 %; 95 % CI +0.543, One joinpoint was detected in 2011; 2000-2011 (APC
+5.213 %). In the age group 30–39 years, AAPC not +2.866%; 95 % CI +0.870, +4.902 %), 2011–2019 (APC
significantly increased from 2000 to 2019 with APC +1.201 %; 95 % CI -1.958, +4.463 %). The incidence
+0.576% (95 % CI -1.214; +2.399%), with two joinpoints significantly increased in the age group 50-59 years during
Figure 4. Annual Percent change (APC) of breast cancer for Iraqi women compared to other countries.
series published by the Iraqi cancer registry/Ministry of same disease in Asian and Western countries?. World J Surg,
Health. Iraqi Cancer Board each year published detailed 34, 2308-24.
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Conflict of interest fertility patterns. E Clin Med, 38, 100985.
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