Key factors governing particulate matter

environmental fate in an urban environment

Gordan a Jovan o vi ć | Svetlana Stanišić | Mirjana Perišić
Andrej Šoštarić | Andre ja Stojić
Summary

Motivation
Research concept
Key factors governing particulate matter distribution
 Motivation
Environmental Physics Laboratory | IPB
Atmospheric chemistry and physics
Environmental impact assessment
Unpredicted change in the environment
Geographical expansion and population growth, industry
development, pollution generation, climate change
Unlimited set of interaction pathways, uncertainties, non-
linearities, interconnectivities, etc.
Far beyond the patterns which sufficient description would
consider simple starting points
Need for a deep understanding of the nature of the
environmental complexity and of the responses it requires
 Motivation
Environmental Physics Laboratory | IPB
Atmospheric chemistry and physics
Environmental impact assessment
Unpredicted change in the environment
Geographical expansion and population growth, industry
development, pollution generation, climate change
Unlimited set of interaction pathways, uncertainties, non-
linearities, interconnectivities, etc.
Far beyond the patterns which sufficient description would
consider simple starting points
Need for a deep understanding of the nature of the
environmental complexity and of the responses it requires
Our research
Towards environmental complexity recognition
Towards sophisticated and synergistic modeling
 Motivation
Environmental Physics Laboratory | IPB
Atmospheric chemistry and physics
Environmental impact assessment
Statistical analysis
Machine learning
Explainable artificial intelligence
Artificial intelligence
Unpredicted change in the environment
Geographical expansion and population growth, industry
development, pollution generation, climate change
Unlimited set of interaction pathways, uncertainties, non-
linearities, interconnectivities, etc.
Far beyond the patterns which sufficient description would
consider simple starting points
Need for a deep understanding of the nature of the
environmental complexity and of the responses it requires
Our research
Towards environmental complexity recognition
Towards sophisticated and synergistic modeling
Motivation
Environmental complexity recognition
“History”

Environmental science
Laboratory experiments
Case studies
Monitoring
Environmental complexity recognition
Environmental complexity recognition
Environmental complexity recognition

Earthquakes?
Lightning? Floods? Tsunamis?
Hurricanes? Tornadoes?
Environmental complexity recognition

Analyze the phenomenon in the context in which it occurs

Earthquakes?
Lightning? Floods? Tsunamis?
Hurricanes? Tornadoes?
Data
Data

Problems
Heterogeneous, inaccurate, etc.
Asymmetric data access
Lack of infrastructure for large data sets
More problems
Insufficient data-driven knowledge
Infinite number of in-depth global studies
Even more problems
Heterogeneity in data processing methods
Heterogeneity in the approach to dealing with phenomena
Data

Air pollution
United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA)
European Environmental Agency (EEA)
Meteorological parameters
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Air Resources Laboratory’s Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS)
Satellite data
Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)
Data

Air pollution
Criteria air pollutants (CO, SO2, NOx, NO, NO2, O3, PM2.5, and PM10)
BTEX (benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylene)
PM elemental composition
PAHs (bezo[a]pyrene)
Urban air pollution
More than 400 polluting species
Measurement stations measure at least 20 times less parameters
Data
Data
Data Topological factors
Socioeconomic factors
Population density
GDP
Industrial development
Road infrastructure
Energy infrastructure
Electricity consumption
Research concept
Research concept

The complexity of the environmental phenomenon and the depth of its interpretation
determine the complexity of the methods needed to be applied to represent the
phenomenon and to formalize the principles being analyzed
Research concept

Platform
Easy access to raw data
Data transformations
Pollution models creation, execution, and explanation
Rich visualizations
Reporting tools for exploration and exploitation
Research concept
Research concept

Facilitate
Access to environmental data
Shift in methodology and current approaches Data analysis
Enhance the understanding of the global environmental fate
Exploration of the results
Thoughtful environmental protection practices, policies, and
Increase efficiency, creativity, and productivity
strategies
Scale up data analysis
Support transdisciplinary
 Key factors governing
particulate matter distribution
Key factors governing
particulate matter distribution
Suspended particulate matter
Complex mixture of compounds
Solid and/or liquid state
Organic and inorganic origin
Adverse health effects
Shot run – irregular heartbeat and bronchial asthma
exacerbation
Long run – reduced lung capacity, increased risk of
malignant diseases, increased susceptibility to systemic
inflammation, diabetes and its complications,
exacerbation of chronical conditions, higher susceptibility
to infectious viral or bacterial diseases, and increased risk
of atherosclerosis and its consequences, heart stroke
Aim
Estimating the relationships between PM10 concentrations
and a number of environmental parameters in Belgrade,
Serbia
Air Quality Plan for the Agglomeration of Belgrade 2021-
2031
Methodology

Data analysis - ATLAS

Sampling and chemical analysis
eXtreme Gradient Boosting regression (XGBoost)
Institute of Public Health Belgrade
SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP)
 Methodology
eXtreme Gradient Boosting
Bootstrap aggregating –
combinations of predictions
from multiple DT via
majority voting
Sequentially build models by Optimized Gradient Boosting
minimizing the errors from previous through parallel processing, tree
models while increasing the pruning, and regularization
influence of high-performing models

Bagging Boosting XGBoost

Decision Random Gradient

Trees Forest Boosting

DT - decisions based on Bagging based – subsets of Gradient descent algorithm

certain conditions features randomly selected to minimize the errors in
to build a collection of DT sequential models
 Methodology
eXtreme Gradient Boosting

Tree boosting
Converting many weak learners to a strong learner
One doctor: patient has a rare condition
Patient: visit more doctors to make more reliable diagnoses Weak learners
Inaccurate, slightly better than random guessing
One doctor: knows just enough to make little progress
Good council: able to put together accurate diagnosis Tree ensembles
Trees try to complement each other
Methodology
SHapley Additive exPlanations
Interpret a model with confidence
SHAP
Connects game theory with local explanations – how to
fairly distribute the payout (prediction) among the
players (features)
Unites several previous methods and represents the
only possible consistent and locally accurate additive
feature attribution method based on expectations
Results

XGBoost model evaluation

XGBoost model evaluation

 Results

SHAP
PM10 concentrations in Belgrade – predominantly
determined changing the intensity of emission sources
Among the five most important variables
Meteorological parameters
momentum flux intensity – Mofi
standard lifted index – Lisd

2
volumetric soil moisture content – Solm
temperature
and pollutants
benzene
SHAP feature importance
NO, NOx, and SO2
 Results

Volumetric soil moisture content

After the emission – pollutants are subject to a variety of
physical, chemical, and photochemical reactions
Gas-particles conversion, adsorption, desorption,
absorption and gas dissolution, condensation of volatile
compounds, as well as nucleation and coagulation

PM10 SHAP dependency on volumetric soil moisture

content and SO2
Results

Standard lifted index

Indicates the degree of atmospheric stability
Dynamics and transformations of PM10 depended on
atmospheric stability – in average 8 μg m-3

PM10 SHAP dependency on standard lifted index and NOx

 Results

Momentum flux intensity

Airflow in the vertical structure of the atmosphere
Stable meteorological conditions – relatively constant
momentum flux
Large influence of stable meteorological conditions on
PM10
PM10 SHAP dependency on momentum flux intensity and
NO
 Results

Temperature
Intensive combustion of fossil fuels for heating – increase
in PM10 (average 10 μg m-3)
Above 25°C – resuspension (average 4 μg m-3)

PM10 SHAP dependency on temperature and SO2

Results

Atmospheric pressure
Relatively small and constant

PM10 SHAP dependency on atmospheric pressure and

NO2
Results

Benzene

PM10 SHAP dependency on benzene and NO2

Results

SO2
Four dominant environment types distinguished

PM10 SHAP dependency on SO2 and NO

Conclusions

Research concept - data-driven research

Capturing defining factors and processes that govern the evolution of polluting species
Big data, advanced modeling, and supercomputing
Virtual experimentation
Andreja Stojić
+381 11 37 13 004
Thank you!
andreja@ipb.ac.rs
www.ipb.ac.rs