This document discusses an integrated thinking approach to creative decision making and problem solving. It provides examples of decision making frameworks and approaches used by leaders at major companies like Google, Virgin, Tesla, Amazon, and others. The frameworks emphasize gathering evidence, developing hypotheses, seeking refutation, avoiding isolation, considering impacts on future opportunities, and distinguishing between reversible and irreversible decisions.
This document discusses an integrated thinking approach to creative decision making and problem solving. It provides examples of decision making frameworks and approaches used by leaders at major companies like Google, Virgin, Tesla, Amazon, and others. The frameworks emphasize gathering evidence, developing hypotheses, seeking refutation, avoiding isolation, considering impacts on future opportunities, and distinguishing between reversible and irreversible decisions.
This document discusses an integrated thinking approach to creative decision making and problem solving. It provides examples of decision making frameworks and approaches used by leaders at major companies like Google, Virgin, Tesla, Amazon, and others. The frameworks emphasize gathering evidence, developing hypotheses, seeking refutation, avoiding isolation, considering impacts on future opportunities, and distinguishing between reversible and irreversible decisions.
• Formalized their various teams' meeting agendas, so that every employee knew they would get a weekly Decisions chance to present a plan that Google's leadership team could choose to act on or not-Emphasis was Approach: placed on efficiency. • "I cannot tell you how many people have told me that at Google decisions are made today quickly in Eric Schimidt almost every case, even at our current scale," • “Most large corporations have too many lawyers, too many decision-makers, unclear owners, and things Former CEO Google; congeal, they occur very slowly.“ Chairman Alphabet • Schmidt noted that even when Google chose to acquire YouTube in a $1.6 billion deal in 2006, the decision process took only 10 days. • At Google, Schmidt explained, it's clear whose responsibilities are what, and decisions don't get caught in bureaucratic limbo. • "Even if it's the wrong decision, a quick decision is better than almost every case," he said. • Look beyond first impressions and undertake thorough “homework”, • Avoid making decisions in isolation. Decisions • Every decision has some degree of impact on Approach: your ability to adopt other future opportunities in what the experts call ‘the decision stream’. • “This one may be a ‘too good to miss’ Richard opportunity but how will it affect other projects or Branson priorities and, if now is not the best time to do it, what risks if any are there in putting the thing on hold for an agreed period of time?” • Stepping back to assess the bigger picture can help make the top priorities clear: Both for yourself, and for the business. • If you cannot manage this project in addition to another that’s waiting in the wings, which one gets the nod and why? 1. Ask a question. 2. Gather as much evidence as possible about it 3. Develop axioms based on the evidence, and try to assign a probability of truth to each one. Decisions AXIOM: a statement or proposition which is regarded as being established, accepted, or self- Approach: evidently true. 4. Draw a conclusion based on cogency in order to determine: a)Are these axioms correct, b) Are Ellon Musk they relevant, c) Do they necessarily lead to this conclusion, and c) With what probability? 5. Attempt to disprove the conclusion - Seek refutation from others to further help break your conclusion. 6. If nobody can invalidate your conclusion, then you're probably right, but you're not certainly right • Type 1 decisions are not reversible, and you have to be very careful making them. • Type 2 decisions are like walking through a door — if you don't like the decision, you can always go Jeff Bezos back. • The problem, Bezos writes, comes from confusing the two: Type 1 & Type • As organizations get larger, there seems to be a 2 Decisions – tendency to use the heavy-weight Type 1 decision- making process on most decisions, including many Type 2 decisions. • The end result of this is slowness, unthoughtful risk aversion, failure to experiment sufficiently, and consequently diminished invention. • We'll have to figure out how to fight that tendency. Type 1 & Type 2 Decisions in Practice • Use swot analysis to enhance your decision making • This helps you leverage your leverage • SWOT analysis - strengths, Use SWOT weakness, opportunities, and Analysis threats • SWOT analysis is critical to stragic decision making and strategy formulation a) Being shortsighted b) Continuing a project merely because you started it Use c) Being afraid of the unknown Decision d) Resting on your laurels frameworks e) Intuiting that the future follows a straight line from past patterns to avoid f) Being distracted by new (but possibly irrelevant) technology • Enter your strategic planning and budgeting session with an open mind, clear communications, a collaborative outlook. Decision Making- An Integrated Thinking Approach INSTITUTIONAL POLICY DEVELOPMENT
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Modernize, Develop, Review, Update Or Enhance Your Tools, 1. How do you take decisions to solve Systems & Policy problems daily? Frameworks: