Summer Examination Period 2023 – May - Semester B

ECS660U Modelling and Performance Duration:2 hours

This a 2-hour online exam, to be completed during a fixed 4-hour window. The additional
2 hours are to resolve any IT issues.

You MUST submit your answers before the exam end time.

All instructions and guidelines from the exam page should be followed.

This is an open-book exam and you may refer to lecture material, text books and online
resources. The usual referencing and plagiarism rules apply, and you must clearly cite any
reference used.

Calculators are permitted in this examination. Please state on your answer book the name
and type of machine used.

Answer ALL questions

You MUST adhere to the word limits, where specified in the questions. Failing to do
so will lead to those answers not being marked.

YOU MUST COMPLETE THE EXAM ON YOUR OWN, WITHOUT CONSULTING

OTHERS

Examiners:

Dr. Schormans and Dr. Ma

© Queen Mary University of London, 2023

Page 2 ECS660U (2023)

Question 1
a) i) State the relative frequency definition of probability, and then use it to determine the
probabilities of A, B and C given the following limited set of data:

AAABBCAAAAABBABABCCB

What is the drawback of using this definition of probability here?

ii) We use the exponential distribution in the context of subsystem reliability. We have a
failure rate of ‘r’ for subsystem X. We run a series of tests at time T=1 year and find that
the Prob(subsystem X is still working at T) = 0.1. What is the failure rate of the
subsystem?

iii) A Binomial distribution is used to model the results of bits sent down a communications
link with random errors. In a test experiment, 1000 test bits are sent, and 10 are found to
be in error. What is the probability that, in the next 1000 bits, there are no bits in error?
[9 marks]

b) b) A continuous time system has three states: active, idle, and off. The idle state is
accessed via either the active state or the idle state, while the active state can only be
reached from the idle state. The off state is accessed only via the idle state, while the idle
state can be accessed from the off state (as well as from the active state).

The rates associated with transitions are as follows:

R(idle → active) = 1/1000

R(active → idle) = 1/1000

R(idle → off) = 1/100,000

R(off → idle) = 1/100,000

i) Draw the Markov Chain model for the system, adding in all relevant parameter values.

ii) Evaluate the long run probabilities that the system is in each of the three states: active,
idle and off.

iii) If we plan to use a Markov Chain model of the number of packets in a router buffer,
sketch roughly what that Markov Chain model should look like, giving your reasons.

iv) Overall, what are the advantages and disadvantages of using Markov Chains to model
systems in engineering and computer science?
[8 marks]

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ECS660U (2023) Page 3

c) You experiment with N=10 identical sub-systems. You discover that the times (in years)
to failure are:

10.2, 12.0, 8.7, 6.1, 14.0, 13.0, 7.6, 8.8, 9.2, 10.4

Propose a reliability model for a system that uses three of these sub-systems in parallel in
the reliability sense. Evaluate the probability that this system is still working after 10 years.

What are the main characteristics of the exponential model of sub-system reliability?
[8 marks]

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Page 4 ECS660U (2023)

Question 2
a) i) With respect to computer simulation, explain the terms: steady state, pseudo random
number generator, stopping criteria.

ii) A packet router receives packets at a rate of 1 million packets per second. The queue
formation in the router is modelled as an M/M/1 queue. If the mean packet length is
1000 bytes, what is the output bitrate (in bps) needed (at the router) to ensure that the
Pr(queue > 100 packets) ≤ 0.00001?

iii) A Call Centre has no call waiting facility, and so loses blocked calls. What formula is
used to evaluate call blocking probability? Use this formula, or a more convenient
approximation, to find the call blocking probability if the applied traffic is 50 Erlangs and
the number of servers is 50.

[9 marks]

b) i) If we lose 0 packets out of 10,000 arrivals to a queueing system in a simulation, what

do we estimate to be the loss probability (LP), and the upper and lower confidence
intervals at a 95% confidence? Use the Wilson Score interval.
ii) What do Confidence Intervals tell us?
iii) If we have 90% CI’s and the first 8 experiments yield values within the CI’s while the 9th
experiment is outside, what do we predict about the result(s) of the 10th experiment?
iv) If we didn’t use Confidence Intervals what would be the effect on using simulation to
study complex systems in engineering and computer science?
[8 marks]

c) In a call center with call queueing the number of operators is 60, and the applied traffic
intensity is 58E, and the mean service time for customer is 6 mins.

i) Use the Heavy Traffic formulas to estimate the probability that any customer has to wait.

ii) How can we act to reduce the probability that any customer has to wait? What are the
advantages and disadvantages of taking this action?

[8 marks]
ECS660U (2023) Page 5

Question 3
Figure 3.1 shows an undirected and unweighted graph. Answer the following questions
about the graph. Show all your working.

Figure 3.1

a) Calculate the Local Clustering Coefficient of each node.

[6 marks]

b) What is the Global Clustering Coefficient of the graph? List all the triplets in your
answers.

[4 marks]

c) The probability of a link exists between any two nodes in a random graph is given by p.
What would the value of p be if we assume the network in Figure 3.1 has been
generated by the Erdös-Rény model?

[5 marks]

d) Calculate the Global Efficiency of the graph.

[5 marks]

e) Use the graph in Figure 3.1 to illustrate and explain the concept of Intentional Attacks in
the evaluation of network robustness. What is the value of the Global Efficiency when
50% of the nodes in the graph have been removed under this strategy?

[5 marks]

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Page 6 ECS660U (2023)

Question 4
Figure 4.1 shows an undirected and unweighted graph.

Figure 4.1

a) Illustrate and explain step-by-step how a randomised version of this graph can be
generated using the Configuration Model. Show all your working.

[10 marks]

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ECS660U (2023) Page 7

b) To compare the graph in Figure 4.1 with its null counterparts, the number of edges

between nodes with a degree of and neighbouring nodes with a degree of were

examined, and the ratio were calculated between the graph and the

averages obtained from the ensemble of randomised networks, as shown in Figure 4.2.

Figure 4.2

i) What conclusions could you draw from the ratio shown in Figure 4.2?

ii) It is suspected that errors have been made when calculating the ratio

shown in Figure 4.2, as it would be very unlikely for these values to be obtained.
Provide reasons to explain why this would be the case.
[9 marks]

c) Use the graph in Figure 4.1 to illustrate and explain step-by-step the principle of the
network version of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model under the following
two scenarios:

i) how a virus would spread to Node A, and

ii) how a virus would not reach Node A.

Assume Node E is Patient zero, the probability of being infected β = 0.5 and an infected
individual will recover after two modelling steps.

[6 marks]

End of Paper

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