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Sector Analysis in N. Cyprus-Tourism
Sector Analysis in N. Cyprus-Tourism
Sector analysis
iin
n North
North Cyprus
Cyprus -
Tourism
Tourism
Tufan E
Tufan kici
Ekici
G izem C
Gizem aner
Caner
beach photo cover PRIO.qxp 02/04/2019 12:52 PM Page 1
Tufan Ekici is a quantitative social scientist with a background in economics. He has worked
in academia teaching economics and conducting empirical research in various social science
disciplines. He has also been involved in consulting local governments and professional
organizations in north Cyprus as well as working for private financial institutions in the USA
and the UK. After 12 years of working in north Cyprus, Ekici relocated to the United States in
2018. He is the author of the forthcoming book "The Political and Economic History of North
Cyprus: A Discordant Polity".
Tufan Ekici
and
Gizem Caner
Report 4/2018
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publications thus rests with the authors themselves.
1. OVERVIEW
T
he contribution of the tourism sector to the aggregate economy in North Cyprus has
shown some fluctuations over the years. In the early years after the island’s division in
1974, the North Cyprus tourism sector was not very profitable even though an
important share of the country’s tourist accommodations were located in the north.
Prohibition of direct flights from countries other than Turkey increased the cost for tourists,
lowering tourist demand. Furthermore, the Varosha area was never opened for public use,
even though it was the most popular tourist attraction before separation. However, during
the 1990s, as a result of the increasing numbers of tourists from Turkey, this sector became
more important for the economy. Later, in the new millennium, the tourism sector
transformed into a “gambling” sector, where large and luxurious hotels with casinos started
replacing smaller holiday villages. This brought “tourists” to North Cyprus throughout the year
rather than just during the summer period.
Throughout this report, the word tourist refers to those who enter the island for the
purpose of holiday, or short-term business/education or other visiting purposes. Students,
military personnel and foreigners who have permanent work permits are not included in
these numbers. However, it should be borne in mind that this distinction was not very clear
in the early years of the republic in the North, when people would enter as “tourists” but
conduct businesses and/ or remain illegally; at the time there were no mechanisms to force
them out. Today, this problem still continues but to a lesser extent. Thus, in this report we will
use the number of tourists who actually stayed at tourist accommodations as a measure of
potential tourist supply and try to avoid using the figures for “foreign entries” as a data source,
although we also report these numbers at the end.
In 2003, a more pressing problem emerged when the borders between the north and the
south of the island were partially removed. First, and importantly, an increasing number of
tourists who stayed in the north used the airports in the south to enter the island, compli-
cating data collection and processing. UK-based Turkish Cypriots, for example, constitute an
important share of this group, but there are also other foreign groups who prefer this route
and thus should be included in the total tourist numbers. On the other hand, there are tourist
agencies in the south who bring tourists to the north for daily tours, and also some people
who cross the borders for their convenience connecting the west of the island with the
capital city. This kind of “tourist” does not contribute much to the tourism industry in the
4 Sector Analysis – Tourism
north and should not be included in the official statistics. But the exact number of whose who
actually stay cannot be known and, hence, it would not be informative to insist on their
inclusion in the official numbers. With such caveats regarding the official numbers in mind,
we analyze the evolution of supply and demand in this sector.
This report is organized as follows. The next section examines the history of the tourism
sector in North Cyprus (Chapter 2) according to three time periods: before the separation
(pre-1974), the early years of the breakaway state (1974-1983), and from 1983 until the end
of the century (1983-2000). The third section evaluates the developments that the sector
experienced in the new millennium (2000-2015), and the fourth chapter looks at the
geographical distribution of tourist establishments. Chapter five considers the contribution
of the sector to the overall economy, while chapter six focuses on the casinos and how they
have changed the face of this sector. We conclude the report with policy recommendations
for the present as well as for the future, including possible challenges in a reunited Cyprus.
5
table 2.1 – total nights stayed by tourists and average hotel occupancy rates by district, 1961
The supply of tourist accommodation shows an increasing trend in the period leading up
to the division of the island. In 1950 Cyprus had 1,672 beds with 53% of these in the
mountains (Beaudoin, et al., 1962). However, by 1961 there were 2,826 beds, and less than
40% were in the mountainous regions. This shows that the traditional small accommodations
were being replaced by hotels in the major cities next to the beaches. Table 2.2 shows the
distribution of luxury, 1st and 2nd class hotels in 1960 (1961) and 1974. A notable increase
can be observed in Famagusta, owing primarily to development of the Varosha region.
Varosha was first developed to cater to the British serviceman and their families living in the
nearby British Sovereign bases (Martin, 1993). The average occupancy rates were rather low
in all the establishments due to seasonal fluctuations— high in summer periods and very low
during the winter. It was calculated that the tourism income in 1961 was 4.8% of GNP, where
each foreign visitor was expected to spend 65 pounds on average for a seven-day stay on the
island (Beaudoin, et al., 1962).
table 2.2 – total bed capacity by region, 1960, 1961 and 1974
The evolution of tourist numbers is shown in Figure 2.1. Except for the sharp decreases in
1963-64 and then in 1973-74, which time periods mark the beginning and the end of the bi-
communal conflict, the number of tourists has continuously increased. According to a study
by the Statistics and Research Department of the Republic of Cyprus, the average tourist stay
in 1972 was 12.8 days and almost half of these tourists stayed in Varosha (Yesilada, 1994: 24).
The same source also indicates that for that year the daily average for tourist spending was
82 Cyprus pounds.
1 Annual Abstracts, Department of Statistics, Cyprus Tourist Organisation and processing of data by Planning Bureau.
2. Supply and demand for Tourism Services in north cyprus [1974-2000] 7
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974
Source: cyprus Tourism Organization, data supplied by Symeon matsis. The vertical axis is measured in 1000s
The report on tourist development in the 1960s has important implications for today as
well. The civil conflict in Cyprus started at the end of 1963 and lasted until 1974, meaning that
the proposals in this plan could only be partially executed. After the island’s division in 1974,
both sides realized the importance of tourism and each side implemented its own plans for
development. This report shows us that a substantial number of accommodations (in terms
of bed capacity) remained in the northern part of the island, while the south retained control
of the mountainous regions - which according to this report had become less popular in
terms of tourism by the early 1960s. Thus we can say that the North had the advantage in
terms of supply of touristic accommodations. However, the means of utilizing this advantage
is another story and we will try to tackle this issue in our report.
8 Sector Analysis – Tourism
Sources: annual abstracts department of Statistics and cTO; data processed by the planning bureau and
provided by Symeon matsis
Before we analyze the development of tourism in North Cyprus, it is important to note the
role of Turkish Cypriots in this sector before 1974. The events of 1963-64 and 1967 had
already caused tension between the Cypriots, Greek- and Turkish-, and resulted in forcing the
minority Turkish Cypriots into their own, often isolated, regions. There were not many wealthy
Turkish Cypriots who owned hotels or other tourist establishments to begin with, thus they
were not a major actor in this sector. Martin (1993) cites only a handful of Turkish Cypriot
entrepreneurs at the time who owned significant hotel-type accommodations and operated
under political pressure.3 Most of the Turkish Cypriot owned tourist establishments were
small scale and mainly served domestic tourists. This indicates that Turkish Cypriots were not
experienced in running hotels of an international caliber, which would prove to be a handicap
following the separation in 1974.
2 The published data on the number of hotels and other tourist facilities for 1974 have been revised on the basis of
subsequent information and surveys recording how many hotels were completed and had started operating before
July 1974. Note also, that in 1974 there were many new hotels under construction. Surveys showed that the number of
beds in the hotels under construction exceeded 3,600 (S. Matsis, personal correspondence).
3 According to Martin ( 1993: 342), the owner of the Celebrity Hotel was obliged to take on a 50% Greek partner, who
would not invest any capital but would receive half of the profits.
2. Supply and demand for Tourism Services in north cyprus [1974-2000] 9
Source: annual abstracts, department of Statistics, cyprus Tourist Organisation and data processing by the
planning bureau. data provided by Symeon matsis. The numbers for 1974 and 1975 correspond to the hotels
existing or under construction as of, respectively, June 1973 and may 1974. Thus these numbers may not include
the hotels that were unfinished at the time of or damaged during the war of July 1974. included are the hotels
that were under united nations control (such as the ledra palace hotel, which had a bed capacity of 390).
Although our various sources report different tourist bed capacities, it is fair to say that a
significant number of hotels/beds were now under the control of the Turkish Cypriot
authorities. As mentioned earlier, Varosha—which contained most of the bed capacity and
was a major tourist area right before the war—was closed by the authorities in the North and
4 The official bed capacity released by the SPO in the North for 1977 was 3,265. Yesilada (1994) calculates that there were
around 6,000 beds in the North after the division (excluding the Varosha area) and claims that there were around 36
small-to-medium size establishments (with a bed capacity of around 3,000) that were being used out of purpose, and
another six large, uncompleted hotels (with a bed capacity of around 2,000) that could be added to the tourism sector
of the North as of 1974 (p. 60).
10 Sector Analysis – Tourism
it has remained closed and unused to this day.5 The state, unable to manage other available
tourist accommodations, sought help from Turkey. This resulted in the establishment of the
Cyprus Turkish Tourism Establishment (CTTE) and Cyprus Turkish Airlines (CTA).6 At the same
time, the state started to implement development plans for the entire economy with indi-
vidual solutions for each sector. Tourism was acknowledged as a key sector that could
contribute to the economic development of the newly established state. In this section we
review how this sector evolved between 1974-1983.
The first five-year development plan for this sector covered the period from 1978 to 1982,
and set very optimistic goals: to reach 243,015 tourists, 8098 beds and $15.2 million gross
tourism income from foreign tourists by the end of 1982 (Yesilada, 1994:342). Given that in
1973 the total number of tourists was around 264,000 when there were about 17,000 beds
(see Table 2.3), we must wonder how the state targeted about the same number of tourists
for 1982 with half of the bed capacity. Not surprisingly, not even half of the tourist and bed
capacity targets were achieved by 1983. Yesilada (1994) cites the deficiencies in the number
of qualified personnel, infrastructure and air transportation as possible factors contributing
to the decline of this sector during this period. Furthermore, the inability of the parliament to
pass the related regulations worsened the situation.
Table 2.5 shows the total number of tourist arrivals and departures for 1979-1984. It is
interesting to note that there are fewer departures than arrivals except in 1982 and 1983. This
could simply be due to tourist entries in December, but it could also be due to the large number
of immigrants from Turkey who began to arrive on the island after the division and were later
given TRNC citizenship.7 The total number of nights spent in tourist accommodations shows a
decreasing trend until 1982, while the average hotel stay is also very low, at around 1.5 nights.
5 This area has been under the control of the Turkish military since the separation and is closed to public access.
6 The CTTE was established as a state economic enterprise after the 1974 division, where half of the shares were owned
by the state in the North, and the other half by five State Economic Enterprises (SEE) from Turkey. The purpose of this
establishment was to manage (on its own or with a partner) or rent the tourist establishments that remained in the
North after the bi-communal conflict (Yesilada, 1994: 44)
7 See Hatay (2005) for a detailed discussion on the number of immigrants from Turkey who were given TRNC citizenship.
2. Supply and demand for Tourism Services in north cyprus [1974-2000] 11
Table 2.6 shows the distribution of tourists according to purpose of stay. Until 1983
around 80% of tourists came to the island for holidays. This percentage decreased to 70% in
1984 when 23% came for “Other” reasons, which category probably includes Turkish visitors
who were coming to the island to conduct illegal businesses,8 or those who were sent to stay
on the island and work but were originally given tourist visas.
The type of establishments preferred by tourists are shown in table 2.7. pansiyons (guest-
houses) are basically lower scale, inexpensive, hostel-type accommodations that can
accommodate several people in the same room and usually operate “under the table” (Martin,
1983). In other words, it is unlikely that the people who stayed in pansiyons contributed much
to tourist income. The “other” category probably includes own houses or houses of relatives,
which are the first choices of Turkish Cypriots who live in the UK and visit their relatives in the
summer time. Only half of the tourists in this period chose to stay in hotels.
8 The prices of some retail products, especially clothing, were much cheaper than in Turkey during this time period, thus
many merchants would come to North Cyprus to purchase these items and take them back to Turkey for resale. They
did this with whatever they could carry in their suitcases. Hence the name “suitcase trading” (bavul ticareti).
12 Sector Analysis – Tourism
The duration of stay is provided below (see Table 2.8). The percentage of people who stay
longer has increased over the years, but this should not be interpreted as positive news for
the tourism industry. In fact, the average hotel stay went down from 5.7 days in 1979 to 4.6
by 1985 (Yesilada, 1994: 369). Hence, the longer stays are probably those of groups conducting
business on the island or the British-Turkish Cypriots visiting relatives. Without more infor-
mation on the type of tourists, it is hard to comment on the impact on the overall economy.
Days 1-3 Days 4-7 Days 8-15 Days 16-30 Days 31+
1979 6.4% 46.1% 27.1% 12.1% 8.5%
1980 7.6% 35.0% 29.6% 15.4% 12.5%
1981 11.7% 32.2% 28.1% 14.5% 13.5%
1982 9.8% 33.6% 28.6% 15.5% 12.5%
1983 9.3% 27.2% 22.6% 18.9% 22.0%
1984 3.3% 8.6% 17.9% 25.6% 44.7%
Table 2.9 shows the distribution of tourists by different age groups. There is an important
increase in the 25-29 age group from 1982 to 1984, while there was a decreasing trend in the
numbers of children (0-14) and the elderly (65+) during the five years shown on the table. This
indicates that the type of tourists switched from family to single young adults.
This section has briefly shown the development of the tourism sector in the north of
Cyprus during the first 10 years of the bi-communal conflict and division. Although we have
only litle data for 1975-1979, the later period, from 1979 until 1984, shows that this sector was
unable to achieve its true potential. Notwithstanding, some attempts were made to
jumpstart the sector (establishment of CTTE and rebuilding of some of the large hotels);
2. Supply and demand for Tourism Services in north cyprus [1974-2000] 13
however, these initiatives were unsuccessful and tourism mainly consisted of people who
migrated from Turkey or came to North Cyprus for business purposes. Hope for improving
economic conditions was renewed when the new republic was established in the north.
9 Until this time, CTA was using the planes owned by Turkish Airlines.
14 Sector Analysis – Tourism
table 2.10 – targets and actual outcomes of transitional and development plans
Source: yesilada (1994). “net Tourism income” is reported as $million. for 1988-1992, target and actual
corresponds to the end of the program values (1992). a negative difference indicates that the actual outcome
was less than the target.
The third five-year development plan covered the period 1993-1997. Similar to the previous
two plans, it included very optimistic targets for different sectors. Regarding tourism, the plan
had the following statement:
in order for tourism, a priority sector in this economy, to influence the future of the
economy positively, sustainable tourism policies that are in balance with environmental
and anthropological sensitivities and economic gains; that are in accordance with social,
political and economic circumstances governing the world and the region; and that are
able to protect own resources for long term usage are to be developed.10
(SPO, Third five-year development plan, p. 326)
The table below, Table 2.11, shows some of the goals this plan set for the tourism industry
for the year 1997. As we can see, not all the targets were met. Targets for employment and
Turkish tourists were exceeded, but those for foreign tourists and total bed capacity were not
met. More importantly, the number of tourists who stayed at hotels also proved lower than
targeted, thereby reducing the actual net tourism income. This reaffirms that it is foreign
tourists who are the main contributors to income from tourism, suggesting that policies in
this sector should focus on attracting foreign tourists.
Whether or not the development plans were executed properly, the growth of this sector
between 1983 and 2000 is important, and we will try to summarize it by using official
statistics. We start with the numbers on the supply of tourists. Figure 2.2 below shows the
percentage of Turkish and other foreign tourists during 1983-2000. As we can see, the
majority (around 80%) of tourists were from Turkey. However the definition of a tourist during
this period was very loose, and entry regulations were very relaxed. Furthermore, as we
discussed above, many Turkish visitors would be admitted to the island under a tourist visa,
although many would stay longer and conduct non-tourist activities.
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50% F
Foreign
oreign
40%
Turkish
Turkish
30%
20%
10%
0%
84
91
94
83
85
86
87
88
89
90
92
93
95
96
97
98
99
00
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
Source: SpO
16 Sector Analysis – Tourism
Figure 2.3 shows the growth of total beds at tourist establishments (including hotels and
apartments). Although the supply of tourist beds increased during this period (with only a
very slight decrease in 1985 and 1995), growth was not steady. The latter 1980s experienced
less than 5% growth in supply, whereas during 1988-1993 growth was at least 6% and
between 1989-1990 there was a 16% increase. Average annual increase in tourist beds during
this period was around 6%.
Figure 2.3 – Annual Growth rate of total Bed capacity at tourist establishments
18,0%
16,0%
14,0%
12,0%
10,0%
8,0%
6,0%
4,0%
2,0%
0,0%
1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
-2,0%
Source: SpO
Table 2.12 portrays the demand for hotel beds for 1983-2000, as well the total bed supply
for the same time period. These numbers do not include local tourists. Although Turkish
tourist numbers are almost four times higher than other foreign tourists, the total numbers
who stayed at hotels is only twice as high (and almost identical in 1994 and 1995). Also, the
average length of stay is twice as high for foreign tourists compared to Turkish tourists (no
data on this before 1993). Once again, these numbers indicate that foreign tourists spend
more time in tourist accommodations, and thus contribute more, and more directly, to the
sector. But given the large volume of Turkish tourists and their spending in related industries,
the total contributions cannot exactly be compared.
2. Supply and demand for Tourism Services in north cyprus [1974-2000] 17
table 2.12 – number of tourists who actually stayed at hotels and average nights
Total bed capacity also increased continuously during this period. The distribution of beds
by different hotel category is shown in Table 2.13. During 1990s, 3- and 4-star hotels
controlled most of the market in terms of total bed capacity, corresponding to around 60-
65% of the total. However, the ratio of hotels in these two categories was rather small at
around 30%, which is probably not sufficient to conclude that the market was not
competitive enough.11 Towards the end of the millennium, on the other hand, this
distribution was altered when the number of 5-star hotels increased. By 2000, the share of 3-
and 4-star hotels dropped to 48% even though their numbers increased. The new millennium
favored five-star hotels in North Cyprus.
table 2.13 – total bed capacity and number of establishments by category, 1993-2000
The development of tourism in North Cyprus for the period 1983-2000 was not very
significant. Although tourist numbers and bed capacity steadily increased, progress in this
sector was less than expected despite the development plans and other measures taken by
the state. Policymakers continued to stress the importance of this sector to the overall
economy, while making promises-to-be-broken regarding necessary measures to be taken in
this sector. The saga continued into the new millennium.
19
12 There has been an increasing trend over the last five years in terms of the number of universities and university
students. Past and present governments have publicly praised these developments and made promises to increase the
number of university students to 100,000, which is about one-third of the total population in the North. Policymakers
in the North see this sector (higher education) as having the potential to make a huge impact on the overall economy.
13 According to the most recent tourist exit survey results from the SPO (2011-2012).
20 Sector Analysis – Tourism
borders are not included in the official tourist numbers.14 According to the Ministry of
Tourism website, there were around 2 million foreign entries annually from land crossing
points between 2013 and 2015.15 Even if only 10% of these actually stayed at tourist estab-
lishments in the North, this would increase the numbers in Table 3.1 substantially and cast
more doubt on the number of “shadow tourists”. Finally, although hotels are required to
report the number as well as the nationality of their guests to the appropriate offices, this is
neither controlled nor monitored. Thus, according to our interviews with several current
managers in this industry, it is possible that the nationalities of tourists (especially large groups
with different nationalities) are not entered correctly. All these can explain the discrepancy
between the total number of tourists and the number of those who stayed in hotels. With
these caveats in mind, we report in Table 3.1 the percentage of tourists who stayed at hotels
and their average length of stay for - both foreign and Turkish tourists.
table 3.1- Percentage of tourists who entered north cyprus and stayed at tourist
accommodations and the average length of stay (2000-2015)
turkish Foreign
% stayed at Average length % stayed Average length Foreign /
Year hotels of stay at hotels of stay Turkish Tourists
2000 49.3 3.4 77.3 7.7 38.7%
2001 52.6 3.1 75.6 7.8 45.6%
2002 57.3 3.2 82.2 7.3 50.3%
2003 48.8 3.6 63.5 7.7 49.7%
2004 37.4 3.8 68.7 7.3 69.4%
2005 35.1 3.6 77.3 6.8 74.2%
2006 39.3 3.0 70.5 5.7 44.8%
2007 41.8 2.9 67.8 5.3 40.0%
2008 48.8 2.9 65.5 5.0 32.6%
2009 47.7 2.9 70.6 5.4 37.5%
2010 45.3 3.2 67.5 5.7 32.2%
2011 49.1 3.2 70.8 6.0 39.8%
2012 50.8 3.1 70.2 6.2 40.0%
2013 50.3 3.1 67.7 6.5 45.1%
2014 51.9 3.0 65.1 6.0 42.4%
2015 52.9 3.0 63.3 5.4 40.1%
Source: Tourism planning Office Statistical yearbooks
14 The land borders were partially removed in 2003 and the crossings between the two sides of Cyprus began in April 2003.
15 The numbers in 2013, 2014 and 2015, respectively, are 1,814,708; 1, 981, 027; and 2, 057, 723.
3. The new millennium: 2001-present 21
Table 3.1 once again confirms that the raw number of total tourists should not be interpreted
as an actual impact on tourism industry. Although there are three or four times as many
Turkish tourists as foreign tourists, only half of those stay in tourist establishments, whereas
on average 75% of foreign tourists use such accommodations. Furthermore, foreign tourists
stay longer on average. Therefore policies should be targeted at attracting more foreign
tourists to ibring about a greater and more direct contribution to the sector. In fact, in the last
several years the government offered incentives to tour operators who bring foreign (non-
Turkish) tourists to the island by charter flights. Table 3.2 shows the impact of these incentives
on the supply of foreign tourists.
Cypriots who live in the UK) or homes of friends/relatives (Turkish visitors).16 Given that most
of these tourists are also repeat visitors, after a while, their spending on “tourist activities” will
be limited. The number of visits to museums and archeological sites over the years by
different tourists (Table 5.1) indicate, to a degree, how much tourists can contribute to
economic activities.
table 3.3 – Percentage of tourists and bed nights by different accommodation types
(2011-2012)
Source: SpO, Tourist exit interview (2011-2012), Table 6. children under the age of 15 (about 78, 833) are not
included in this table.
A significant concern among businesses related to the sector has been the full-board option
offered at major hotel establishments. As we will show in the next section, a handful of hotels
control a large share of the total bed capacity, and these hotels tend to offer entertainment,
food, transportation and even retail services at their own establishments, and their guests do
not feel the need to leave the premises. Given that the average stay of Turkish tourists is 2-3
days, the purpose of their visit is probably a weekend getaway or gambling (more about this
later). Foreign tourists, on the other hand, are more interested in the culture and traditions of
the island and would likely spend a longer time outside the hotel premises, thus contributing
more to the economy.
16 There are around 30,000 registered Turkish nationals with work permits (as of 2013) and 60,000 Turkish university
students (as of 2014) in North Cyprus.
3. The new millennium: 2001-present 23
table 3.4 – Percentage of turkish and foreign tourists who stayed at tourist
accommodation by type
turkish tourists
2002 2004 2005 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015
5 Star 46.7% 37.5% 54.2% 75.7% 73.1% 78.1% 77.9% 77.2% 73.2%
4 Star 23.1% 23.0% 16.0% 12.1% 13.4% 8.8% 8.4% 8.8% 7.8%
3 Star 18.7% 28.2% 20.4% 5.8% 5.8% 5.8% 5.4% 4.9% 7.3%
2 Star 4.1% 4.7% 2.5% 3.1% 3.3% 3.1% 2.7% 3.2% 4.8%
1 Star 7.5% 6.7% 6.2% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 1.1% 1.6% 1.5%
Boutique Hotel 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 1.8% 1.8% 2.3%
2nd Class
Holiday Village 0.6% 1.1% 1.9% 2.0% 1.7% 1.4% 1.2%
Tourist Bungalow 0.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.1% 0.9% 0.8% 1.3%
Foreign tourists
2002 2004 2005 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015
5 Star 17.5% 18.9% 34.1% 45.4% 41.8% 40.5% 43.9% 42.3% 43.4%
4 Star 24.6% 22.3% 18.5% 16.1% 17.5% 16.8% 14.7% 15.2% 13.6%
3 Star 30.9% 31.6% 27.5% 13.4% 14.2% 17.6% 15.8% 17.2% 15.2%
2 Star 17.7% 19.5% 11.0% 2.2% 2.7% 3.1% 2.5% 3.8% 3.6%
1 Star 9.3% 7.7% 7.7% 4.3% 3.9% 2.9% 2.5% 2.4% 1.9%
Boutique Hotel 2.2% 1.1% 2.2% 3.5% 4.5% 4.5%
2nd Class
Holiday Village 0.5% 7.7% 8.1% 6.8% 6.0% 6.4% 9.3%
Tourist Bungalow 0.0% 5.9% 7.8% 8.0% 8.8% 6.3% 7.2%
5 Star
4 Star
3 Star
2 Star
1 Star
B outique Hot
Boutique el
Hotel
TTouristic
ouristic Bungalow
Bungalow
24 Sector Analysis – Tourism
5 Star
4 Star
3 Star
2 Star
1 Star
B outique Hot
Boutique el
Hotel
SSecond
econd Class Holida
Holidayy Village
Village
TTouristic
ou
ouristic Bungalo
Bungalow
w
25.000 180
160
20.000 140
120
15.000
100
80
10.000
60
5.000 40
20
0 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
B ed C
Bed apacity
Capacity Number of Establishments
Establishments
notes: The left vertical axis represents the bed capacity and the right vertical axis the number of establishments.
Source: Tourism planning Office
17 Not all of these are new establishments. Some of these hotels just increased their bed capacity over the years to qualify
for this category.
3. The new millennium: 2001-present 25
Once again, the numbers do not provide a good picture of the actual supply in this market.
Alternatively, we report the average annual occupancy rate during this period at all the estab-
lishments, which is around 40%. However, several considerations must be taken into account
regarding this figure. First, occupancy rates reflect a high degree of seasonality, where June-
October is the high season, and the rest of the months are low season. Second, the overall
occupancy rates of different hotel types are also different (shown in Table 3.6). Finally, the occu-
pancy rates include local tourists as well, meaning they may not reflect the true impact of tourists.
60,0%
50,0%
40,0%
30,0%
20,0%
10,0%
0,0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Table 3.5 compares North Cyprus occupancy rates with those of various countries for the
years 2012 to 2016. These numbers are total occupancy rates, which as we explained above
also include local tourists. In North Cyprus, local tourists make up only around 3% of the
occupancy, thus do not greatly impact the figures/comparisons. However, in other countires,
such as Turkey for example, local tourists make up about one-fourth of the total occupancy.
However, lacking information on other countries’ local occupancy rates, we report the totals
for comparison purposes.
Table 3.6 shows occupancy rates by different accommodation types for randomly selected
years. As can be seen, there is a significant difference in the total occupancy rates: the more
luxurious hotels have higher occupancy rates than the smaller and less luxurious hotel types.
Figure 3.6 – the distribution of bed capacity for differently starred hotels
18000
16000
14000
12000 1 Star
10000 2 Star
8000 3 Star
6000 4 Star
4000 5 Star
2000
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
The supply of beds was dominated by starred hotels over the last 15 years, although their
dominance fell slightly after 2006, due to the increased capacity of tourist bungalows and
2nd class holiday villages.
3. The new millennium: 2001-present 27
Figure 3.7 – the share of bed capacity of 1-5 star hotels, 2000-2015
120,0%
100,0%
80,0%
60,0%
40,0%
20,0%
0,0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
The bed capacity of 5-star hotels has shown an increasing trend since 2000. Between 2000
and 2004, the percentage of combined bed capacity of 5-star hotels was less than 20% of the
total capacity in North Cyprus. This percentage has steadily increased from 26.5% in 2006 to
53.5% in 2015. This of course was the result of new large-scaled hotels being built in the
aftermath of the Annan Plan referendum, commencing in around 2006. Conversely, the total
bed capacity of other starred hotels (not shown here) has shown decreasing trends; in fact
because of their inability to compete with large establishments, many smaller establishments
had to close their businesses. This could be interpreted in two ways. First, one might think
that the new, modern, large-capacity tourist accommodations are replacing the older ones,
thus it is good for the industry. But also one could argue that the fierce competition of the
21st century has disadvantaged the smaller establishments, leaving them unable to compete
with multinational chain hotels, which also received substantial subsidies from the
government (land free of charge). It is hard to conclude which point of view is more accurate,
but it is clear that the total bed capacity has doubled over the last 15 years.
60,0%
50,0%
40,0%
30,0%
20,0%
10,0%
0,0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
28 Sector Analysis – Tourism
The most recent figures for distribution of hotel types (as of 2016) are shown in Table 3.7.
There are 140 establishments with a total capacity of 20, 393, which would yield an average
145 beds per establishment. There are also, as of August 2016, 35 hotels under construction
with a bed capacity of 8092 (Tourism Planning Office, 2016). The TRNC Tourism Planning
Office predicts that the total bed capacity should reach 32,000 and 40,500 by the end of,
respectively, 2018 and 2019. This would mean an almost 100% increase within 3 years.
Source: Statistical yearbook of Tourism (2015), Table 8, Tourism planning Office, Trnc
18 Given the distribution of bed capacities in Table 3.4, the accommodations we include in our list comprise 91% of the
total tourist bed capacity. Alternatively one can use the total revenues or bed nights to calculate the market share for
each firm, but we do not have the required information.
3. The new millennium: 2001-present 29
After the boundaries of the relevant market are defined, we use two measures to decide
the competitiveness of the market. The Herfindahl-Hirschmann Index (HHI) and the m-firm
Concentration Ratio (CR) are the two measures most commonly used to determine market
competitiveness.19 The HHI is simply the sum of the square of shares of the firms (range from
0 to 10000), and the CR measures the sum of the shares of the largest m-firms (range from 1
to 100) in a market. When there is a lot of competition, both numbers will be closer to their
respective lower end values. Obviously, what is considered as an acceptable “low” or “high”
value is rather a gray area. For example, antitrust regulations in the US would consider any
market whose HHI is between 1500 and 2500 as moderately concentrated, and markets with
an HHI greater than 2500 as highly concentrated (Department of Justice, 2015).20
Although there are many tourist establishments in North Cyprus, the market is far from
competitive. Table 3.8 shows the number of larger firms in terms of bed capacity. The most
luxurious hotels (13% of all establishments) control more than half (55%) of total bed capacity.
Including the 4- and 3-star hotels (25% of total establishments) will increase the total capacity
to around 73%. Thus one-fourth of the firms in this market control 73% of the total supply.
This indicates that the smaller hotels are not in a very competitive position in this market.
Table 3.9 below reports the m-firm CR and HHI for selected years. Although the HHI
numbers are small and indicate low concentration (more competition) in this market, it has
been increasing over the years. If we only use 3, 4 and 5 star hotels in our market definition
(number of hotels is 32), the HHI would increase to 638. Similarly, concentration ratios have
been increasing over the years, which should indicate lower competition in this market;
however, these numbers alone would probably not be enough in an antitrust case.
19 Both measures have advantages and disadvantages. For a more detailed discussion, please refer to Waldman and
Jensen (2000), Chapter 4.
20 https://www.justice.gov/atr/herfindahl-hirschman-index
30 Sector Analysis – Tourism
The Competition Board in North Cyprus recently filed a report regarding competitiveness
in the tourist market (Competition Board, 2016). A complaint had been filed by a tourist
agency claiming that there had been exclusive deals between some travel agencies and
hotels, which reduced competition in the travel agency market and increased the market
power of the participating hotels.22 Although the report found some anti-competitive
elements in these exclusive deals, the board concluded that since “no single firm in the travel
agencies and hotels market has 40% of the market share, the related statue of the
Competition Law is not violated”. We believe that this rule of 40% is very restrictive and does
not allow for a fair resolution to the problem cited. In fact, if we use the Board’s market
definition, the HHI becomes 638 and the 5-firm CR is 49%.23
There are also significant barriers to entry into both markets. For example, in order to
qualify for a Type A travel agency permit, an agency must provide 10,000 bed nights of foreign
tourists in a year during the probationary period. The agencies are required to become
members of KITSAB and pay a one-time membership fee of 15,000 euro (and 250TL annual
renewal fee). For the upstream market (hotels) there are significant initial costs that prohibit
the entrance of smaller firms into the market. That is in fact the reason why the number of 5-
star hotels over the years have increased and the number of smaller sized establishments have
decreased. Although we do not claim that the hotel industry in North Cyprus is controlled by
one firm, the market is far from being competitive. It is probably fair to describe it as a few
large firms controlling the industry, with the many smaller firms enjoying any surplus demand.
In this discussion of the tourist establishment market in North Cyprus in the new
millennium, we have noted a significant increase in the number of available hotel beds, an
increase due to the greater number of 5-star hotels. This has reduced competition in the
market and raised barriers against entry into the hotel industry. Possible vertical integration
and exclusive deals between travel agencies and hotels have also reduced the
competitiveness of the market. In the next section we will examine hotel location in North
Cyprus and hotel ownership details.
21 This number increases to 370 if we consider four separate hotels operated by Merit as single ownership.
22 The Board defines the travel agency market as A type (permanent and temporary) travel agencies, and the hotel market
as 3-, 4- and 5-star hotels and boutique hotels.
23 The Board calculates Merit Hotels as four separate hotels. Our calculation combined them.
31
4. A GEOGRAPHICAL OVERVIEW
This section will illustrate geographically the past and current situation of the tourism sector;
in other words, we will present the number of tourist establishments and bed capacities
according to their distribution throughout the north of the island. We provide two maps, the
first one compares 1974 to 2016, and the second one demonstrates the current situation.
It must be borne in mind that there are limitations to obtaining and applying data for both
the past and present; as such, we present the most realistic picture possible under the
circumstances.
Following the separation in 1974 there were no regulations in place for the adminis-
trational division of the North. It was not until 1980 that the first legal action took place in
accordance with the Civilian Administration and its Sections Act, which divided North Cyprus
into three districts, namely, Nicosia, Famagusta, and Kyrenia. In 1998, two more districts were
added (Iskele and Güzelyurt). And finally, most recently in 2016, Lefke was promoted to the
status of a district (Url-1). Therefore, the map shown in Figure 4.1 only includes the three
districts (Nicosia, Famagusta, and Kyrenia) which have data available for the year 1974, and
aggregate numbers for 2016. In addition, Figure 4.1 is composed of starred hotels only
because we do not have the numbers for other types of tourist establishments for 1974.24
Overall figures show that within this approximately 40-year period, total bed capacity rose
by 75% in the North, while the total number of tourist establishments grew by 51%. There are
some striking differences in 1974 and 2016 numbers resulting from the division of the island,
which also indicate a big locational shift within the North. In 1974, Famagusta constituted
75% of total beds with an estimated 85% to 90% of this capacity located in the Varosha
region. It was mentioned earlier that following the separation, the Varosha region was sealed
off and never utilized again as a tourist area. As a result, the total beds in the Famagusta
region decreased to 25% by 2016. The process produced a geographical shift: the touristic
hotspot of North Cyprus became Kyrenia, where the percentage of beds rose from 24% to
70% in 40 years.
The second map, Figure 4.2, gives a more accurate picture for the current situation,
particularly for Kyrenia. It should be kept in mind that this map includes all types of tourist
establishments (not only starred hotels), hence the swarm of establishments along the north
24 For 2016, starred hotels constitute 60% of the total bed capacity.
32 Sector Analysis – Tourism
coast. In addition, the map combines smaller municipalities into bigger districts and conveys
the totals for each district (these combined groups are indicated on the map, under the
individual district tables).25
The overall picture of the current period suggests that there is heavy, non-proportional
tourist development in Kyrenia, specifically in the coastal zone. Although several significant
policy documents have been produced to counteract this situation, none so far have proved
effective. The National Physical Plan document, for example, proposes “to de-escalate the
tourist development pressure on Kyrenia and to control and limit further development of
mass tourism in Kyrenia by creating new, alternative attraction points along the coast” (NPP,
2014, translation by the authors). In addition, some recent developments have resulted in
protests, attracting significant public interest, specifically regarding the increasing floor
numbers along the coastal zone against the sanctions of Girne development mandate (Zeyko
Oil Factory area, see Url-2 for details).
Figure 4.1 – number of starred hotels and bed capacities in major localities:
1974 vs. 2016
25 Instead of administrational divisions, the districts are associated with each other according to their locational proximity
with regard to their tourist potential. For example, Iskele is evaluated as part of Famagusta, while Karpaz is interpreted
as a separate tourist agglomeration.
4. a Geographical Overview 33
8,0%
7,0%
6,0%
5,0%
4,0%
3,0%
2,0%
1,0%
0,0%
1981
1984
1991
1994
2001
2004
2011
1977
1978
1979
1980
1982
1983
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2002
2003
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
R
Real
eal (1977) pr
prices
ices Nominal P
Prices
rices
26 There are other indicators that could be useful to analyze the impact of a sector on the overall economy. For tourism,
these include the ability to compensate trade deficit, value added of the sector, fixed investments and sectoral growth.
However given the poor data quality on aggregate measures in North Cyprus, we choose not to produce these graphs
in this section.
36 Sector Analysis – Tourism
Another key indicator used to measure the contribution of the tourism sector to the
aggregate economy is the net tourist income generated by that sector as the share of GDP
(Figure 5.2). These numbers include tourists’ direct expenditures during their stay on the
island, such as flight, accommodation, food, transportation and any other purchased goods
or services. There is an increasing trend after 1986, with the contribution peaking at 38% in
1990. Post-1990, we observe a steady decline, as the new millennium tourists only generate
10% income in North Cyprus. This shows that the importance of this sector has diminished
over the years. If measured accurately, this figure (Figure 5.2) represents a better indication of
tourism’s impact on the overall economy.
45,0%
40,0%
35,0%
30,0%
25,0%
20,0%
15,0%
10,0%
5,0%
0,0%
1981
1984
1991
1994
2001
2004
2011
1977
1978
1979
1980
1982
1983
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2002
2003
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
However, there are certain problems with the measurement of net tourism income. The
SPO conducts periodic interviews at Ercan airport in which it asks tourists to estimate their
average expenditure during their stay. These averages are then multiplied by the total
number of tourists entering the country. A first problem with this calculation is that, as we
have shown, the number of tourists entering the country and the number of tourists staying
at tourist accommodations are not equal. Secondly, the percentage of tourists who come by
sea has dropped significantly in recent years.27 Moreover, the tourists who come by sea are
different demographically and usually spend less than the tourists who travel by plane.
Finally, the spending patterns of Turkish and foreign tourists are vastly different. For example,
27 Currently tourists who arrive by sea account for less than 10% of tourist arrivals. In 2003, 43% of Turkish tourists
preferred to use sea ports. With plane tickets becoming more affordable, now only a very small percentage of tourists
come by sea. On the other hand, in the 1990s, the percentage of tourists who used maritime transport was substantial.
Although the corresponding numbers have decreased in recent years, early numbers are likely to have overestimated
tourism income.
5. contribution of the Sector to the Overall economy 37
the combined number of Turkish and local visitors to museums and historical sites has been
lower than the total number of tourists since 1993.28 Thus tourism income estimates will not
be reliable unless the different expenditure patterns among different types of tourists are
accounted for.
A better, but rather rough, estimate of net tourism income would be to multiply individual
expenditure by the number of tourists who actually stayed at tourist accommodations.
Bearing in mind the potential biases we explained in the previous paragraph, if we use the
same average spending and the total number of tourists who actually stayed at hotels, net
tourism income will be about 50 percent less than what is being reported officially.29
Museum Visits
Another reliable source of tourist income is the revenue received from museum visits. Table
5.1 shows the number of tourists visiting museums over the years. The number of foreign
tourists is larger than the number of Turkish and local tourists combined (students and
soldiers are not included). This table includes total revenues, which are not very large when
compared with the total tourism income, but still represent significant amounts within the
total budgets of related ministries. The museum revenues are invested in a Fund (eski eserler
fonu) that pays for maintenance and preservation costs of museums and historical sites as
well as the salaries of the staff working at museums. This fund is managed by an independent
board of directors. The TRNC parliament has recently passed a new law that transfers all
savings in this Fund to the central budget of the state, to then be utilized according to general
budget regulations. There is no mention in the law of this money to be specifically used for
the preservation of historical sites; this decision is now up to the whim of politicians—and
potentially detrimental for the future of museums and historical sites in North Cyprus.30
28 We only have information since 1993 from the Tourism Planning Office and they don’t separate local and Turkish
visitors. The related table is available upon request.
29 See Figure A2 in Appendix A, a graph that shows the percentage of tourists since 1977 who actually stayed at hotels.
30 The President of the TRNC sent the law to the parliament for reconsideration but the parliament returned it to the
President without making any changes. There was some criticism by the public on this issue but not enough to change
the minds of policymakers.
38 Sector Analysis – Tourism
total Foreign
tourist revenue
trnc + Group Foreign / from Visits
turkish Foreign tickets total (in turkish lira)
1993 110567 236765 68.2%
1994 59933 252651 80.8%
1995 69343 193300 73.6%
1996 70265 167928 70.5%
1997 101341 142700 58.5%
1998 105859 119426 53.0%
1999 87876 97004 52.5%
2000 102595 108999 51.5%
2001 61945 104162 62.7%
2002 73069 114324 61.0%
2003 63546 152835 70.6%
2004 64141 163763 71.9%
2005 75035 172631 69.7%
2006 86482 139570 61.7% 697,850
2007 108769 152257 58.3% 761,285
2008 115723 159296 57.9% 796,480
2009 110344 210273 65.6% 1,051,365
Source: Statistical yearbooks. foreign/Total ratio for 2011-2015 is problematic because the number of
foreigners within the group tickets category is unknown. because students and military personnel are not
included in these numbers, the actual museum revenues are higher than what has been calculated.
revenues are calculated by using the ticket prices for each corresponding groups’ category.
5.2. employment
In this part we look at the direct contribution of the tourism sector to the economy in terms
of employment opportunities. Figure 5.4 shows the number of people employed in tourism
and related sectors since 1977 as a percentage of total employment in North Cyprus. The
graph shows four different trends. The blue line shows the percentage of employed individuals
at tourist establishments (hotels + guest houses). Other lines represent employment in
related sectors and casinos. Employment in the sector shows an increasing trend, particularly
in the last decade. This is primarily due to the growing number of large hotels that require
more employees. In addition, casinos have added significant employment to the sector (see
section 6 for detailed information on casinos).
5. contribution of the Sector to the Overall economy 39
Figure 5.3 – the percentage of total employment in tourism and related industries
16,0%
14,0%
12,0%
10,0%
8,0%
6,0%
4,0%
2,0%
0,0%
1981
1984
1991
1994
2001
2004
2011
1977
1978
1979
1980
1982
1983
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2002
2003
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
TTourism
ourism Establishmen
Establishments
ts Add
Add complement
complement sec
sectors
tors A
Add
dd TTourism
ourism Agencies
Agencies Add
Add Casinos
Casinos
Figure 5.4 – the number of types of tourism and travel agencies (1997-2015)
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Type-A
Tyype-A Temp
Temp
e Tyype-A
Type-A Type-B
Tyype-B
% Foreign % Foreign
year total Guides language year total Guides language
1974 26 100 1996 23 100
1975 25 100 1997 18 100
1976 15 100 1998 30 100
1977 20 70 1999 55 49
1978 21 62 2001 26 100
1979 46 28 2002 102 0
1980 53 42 2003 94 0
1981 46 37 2004 82 0
1986 43 40 2005 21 100
1987 43 33 2006 18 100
1989 43 47 2007 59 39
1991 52 25 2009 40 100
1993 118 48 2010 19 100
1995 73 32 2012 46 100
32 OTEM refers to the Center for Hotels and Tourism that was established in November 1974 with the main goal of
producing qualified personnel for the tourism industry immediately after the separation.
5. contribution of the Sector to the Overall economy 41
Figure 5.5 – Percentage of tourism sector credits to sectoral GnP and total credits
50,0% 6,0%
40,0% 5,0%
4,0%
30,0%
3,0%
20,0%
2,0%
10,0% 1,0%
0,0% 0,0%
1981
1984
1991
1994
2001
2004
2011
1977
1978
1979
1980
1982
1983
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2002
2003
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
TTourism
ourism Sector
Sector Credits
Credits / Tourism
Tourism GNP TTourism
ourism SSector
ector Cr
Credits/
edits/ Total
Total Credits
Credits
Subsidies (Incentives)
One attempt to help jump-start the tourism sector immediately after separation was to enact
the Industry and Tourism Investments Incentive Law in 1974, which soon proved to be
ineffective. As a result, this law was replaced in 1975 by the Tourism Sector Incentive Law.
However, this law was not enacted until 1987, during which time the old law was in effect
(Yesilada, 1994: 289). The main incentives of this law are as follows:
42 Sector Analysis – Tourism
Although these incentives appear reasonable on paper, their execution is open to manipu-
lation. In fact, most of the exemptions and privileges in this law have been abused by the
related ministers, and public resources have been wasted. It remains a mystery where all the
revenue collected by the related Fund has gone. Over the years, the laws changed and new
items were added. Table 5.3 shows the total amount of monetary incentives extended to this
industry between 1993 and 2000. Keeping in mind that there were only few establishments
during this time, it is likely that most incentives were used by just a few firms in the industry.
table 5.3 – the amount of subsidies ($) according to the tourism industry incentive law
33 The Fund refers to the Tourism Development and Promotion Fund whose budget includes annual allocations from
the Tourism Ministry, credits obtained by the decision of the Board of the Ministers, tax revenues from imported
gasoline and all other goods (except basic food products) to the country, 50% of the price of all the entries/exits to
the country, the interest earned from the credits extended by the Fund, the rents allocated for tourism purposes, and
casino license fees.
34 Although this was rejected by the Constitution Court in 1987, whether the decision was respected by policymakers is
another story.
5. contribution of the Sector to the Overall economy 43
The Incentive Law (47/2000 Tesvik yasasi) enables foreign investors to obtain funding. If an
investor obtains the Incentive Certification approved by the SPO, he is entitled to a number
of privileges, including application for credit at the Development Bank. Other privileges
involve investment discounts, excise tax exemption, VAT exemption from physical capital,
land/building allocation and credit backed by the Fund. By the end of 2008, there were 350
Incentive Certifications approved by the SPO, which resulted in fixed capital investment in
the amount of 3228 million TL, with 68.7% of these in the tourism sector (SPO, 2013). This law
extended a total of 8.9 million TL credits to the tourism sector by the end of 2008.
The most recent subsidies for this sector are outlined in Table 5.4.35 The table shows
foreign tourist direct payments to travel agencies (Type A) that bring tourists using charter
flights, and on condition that these tourists stay at least seven nights at KITOB member
hotels, Karpasia Area ECO Tourism Union member establishments, or regional guesthouses.
These add up to substantial amounts, as they offer a huge incentive to travel agents who can
bring more foreign tourists to the country. However, government payments are usually late,
and some agencies complain that late government reimbursement puts them in a financially
difficult situation. Furthermore, given that around 40% of foreign tourists are brought by one
travel agency (The Competition Board, 2016), the subsidies are distributed unequally. Table
5.5 shows subsidies for other types of tourist groups.36 There are also incentives for tourists
brought in with commercial (non-chartered) flights, and are valid for tourists staying at similar
accommodations as described above, extending cover to non-foreign (Turkish) tourists.37
table 5.4 – Foreign tourist subsidy amounts (per tourist brought by charter flights)
35 These were valid between January 1, 2014 and December 31, 2016.
36 The religious and other official holidays, and June 15- September 1 period are excluded.
37 See footnote 24.
44 Sector Analysis – Tourism
turkey other
Special Interest Groups
At least 5 nights accommodation 35 € 50 €
At least 6 nights accommodation 45 € 65 €
Closed Groups
Type 1* (at least 2 nights) 10 € -
Type 1 (at least 3 nights) 25 € -
Type 2** (at least 2 nights) 15 € -
Type 2 (at least 3 nights) 30 € 40 €
Non-chartered Tourists
At least 5 nights accommodation 15 € 35 €
At least 6 nights accommodation 20 € 40 €
At least 7 nights accommodation 30 € 60 €
*Type 1: agency and vacation groups
**Type 2: Seminar, workshop, conference, meeting groups
Source: besim and Sertoglu (2015)
In recent years subsidies for tourism have been very generous. This has led to a substantial
increase in the number of foreign and Turkish tourists and in the resulting bed nights.
However, at the same time, it has applied pressure on the government—whose lack of funds
meant that subsidies could not be paid to sector representatives on time. In order to minimize
the damage, payments were made via grants obtained from Turkey (TR Development and
Economic Cooperation Office Report, 2015, p. 102). Most recently the government has
announced that they will lower the incentives for charter flights, which had also been criti-
cized by some political parties.38 In any case, it is fair to say that these incentives were a boon
to tourist numbers and occupancy rates. On the other hand, without further information on
total subsidies, we cannot assess the net economic impact of these developments. If these
trends cannot be sustained without incentives, the sector’s growth will be nothing more than
an economic bubble. In the next section we examine a related subsector that has contributed
to the bubble in recent years.
38 http://www.kibrispostasi.com/index.php/cat/35/news/217996/PageName/KIBRIS_HABERLERI
45
6. CASINOS
Since the 1974 division, casinos have become an integral part of tourism in the North. The legal
foundations for opening and operating establishments that allow gambling were constituted
as early as 1975. Initial plans gave permission for four casinos (two in Kyrenia and two in
Famagusta) at 4- or 5-star hotels, on the condition that they brought tourists to the island
(Yesilada, 1994). As meeting this condition proved to be difficult, it was subsequently elimi-
nated. At the same time, the number of casino permits increased to nine (Yesilada, 1994). By
1995 there were a total of 13 casinos in the northern part of the island (Scott and Asikoglu,
2001). The main purpose of these places was to attract tourists (mainly from Turkey, because
Turkish nationals were not allowed into casinos in Turkey) for gambling activities and thus
increase the revenues from tourism. This proved to be an important source of tourist attraction
when Turkey’s casinos were closed in 1997. There is no doubt that the number of people
visiting the island increased and a significant number of these “tourists” came for gambling,
but the impact of these establishments on the overall North Cyprus economy is questionable.
The North Cyprus governments did not worry long about the legal framework for casinos
The state initially used the “Betting Houses, Gaming Houses and Gambling Prevention Law”
(Fasil 151), a law that was adopted from the English administration law enacted in 1947. The
first government program that includes reference to casino regulations was the 1996 program
that promised to “reorganize the laws and regulations regarding casinos and increase the
contribution of these establishments to tourism” (Diler, 2015: 97). Not surprisingly, it was
many years before these promises were carried out, meaning that casinos operated under
outdated regulations for another 10 years.
The most recent requirements for gambling permits are outlined in a statute that was
passed in 2009.39 Item 7 of the related statute requires that the permit be given only to 5-star
tourist establishments with a minimum of 500 beds or to first-class holiday villages with the
same bed capacity. The law also limits the number of permits to five, although establishments
in the Bafra Tourism Investment Area are excluded from this limit.40 The permit is revoked if
an establishment fails to meet the star and bed capacity requirements. Finally, the casino
permit must be renewed every three years and is not transferrable.
The law also dictates the tax and fee payments required of these establishments. Casinos
must pay 10% of their gross earnings from gambling activities each month. However, the law
calculates a minimum tax that must be paid regardless of the amount of earnings. This
minimum amount is relative to the number of gaming tables and machines. There is also an
additional annual license fee of 550,000 euro, which covers the operations of seven gaming
tables and 75 game machines. Additional machines and tables are subject to extra payment.
Finally, every employee working in these establishments is required by law to have the appro-
priate employment license specific to gambling, which is given by the central government
and must be renewed annually. All these fees and taxes represent a good source of income
for the central government, and is probably the reason the state has allowed them to operate.
In October 2016, a new law establishing the Casino Administrators Union was enacted (31
October 2016). However the 2009 law required every casino owner to be member of this
union since 2015 (which did not exist until today). Item 81A in the “Hotels Bylaw” (2012) states
that hotels with casino permits that are not 5-star (or not a first-class holiday village) are
required by law to upgrade their establishments to 5-star requirements.
30
25
20
15
10
0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
120,0%
100,0%
80,0%
60,0%
40,0%
20,0%
0,0%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
There are, however, several negatives that these establishments generate with regard to
employment conditions. For one, casinos usually operate after dark, which means that
employees do not have regular working hours. This should concern the labor unions whose
main duty is to ensure workers’ rights. Given the difficult working hours, most nationals do
not want to work at these establishments, forcing employers to hire staff from overseas.
There was a high supply of Romanian women working as croupiers in the mid-1990s. These
women worked under strict guidelines and were sometimes not made to feel welcome by
the locals (Scott, 1995). Hiring preference shifted towards Turkish workers during the 2000s.
On the other hand, amenities (drinks, food) are usually free of charge at these estab-
lishments, such that customers spend all their time inside and, hence, fail to contribute to
the local economy. Finally, environmental factors such as pollution and congestion due to
poor infrastructure, as well as lack of monitoring of the entry of the locals (although it is
illegal), have made them unpopular with the locals.
It is true that casinos attract large numbers to the island, but how important they are for
the local economy is debatable. On the one side, they generate revenue for the government
through license fees and other regulatory payments. They also employ a substantial number
of workers, although a large portion of the casino workforce is made up of foreigners who
generally work under the table. On the other hand, the social impact of gambling on the
local society is a public concern.
48
7. CONCLUSION
This report has evaluated the development of the tourism industry in the northern part of
Cyprus since the island’s division in 1974. The situation pre-1974 was discussed briefly, before
moving on to examination of the supply and demand of tourism services that remained in
the northern part of the island following partition and into the new millennium. Additionally,
the overall contribution of the industry in terms of employment and value added was exam-
ined. Finally, the gambling industry was highlighted, as it is highly correlated with the sector.
After 1974, the Turkish community was left with a significant number of tourist accommo-
dations which could not be utilized efficiently. According to our findings, 70% of total bed
capacity of the RoC in 1974 remained under TC control, although 48.4% of these were in the
Varosha region, which was closed off and never utilized by the authorities in the North. Other
hotels were gradually managed by the state or private entities. Although policymakers
realized the importance of this sector in the development of the new state and included
policy measures to develop it, they have not been too successful .
One of the main challenges facing this sector is the lack of tourists from foreign desti-
nations: 80% of “tourists” in the North come from Turkey and their contribution to the local
economy is questionable since these “tourists” tend to stay with their relatives or visit for certain
activities that require shorter stays (i.e., gambling, weekend getaway, business). Recently, the
government has allocated substantial subsidies for tourists who come from destinations
other than Turkey and has successfully created an increase in the number of such tourists.
However, reliance on subsidies continuously may not be a long-term solution. Casinos also
provide significant employment opportunities and significant tax revenues for the state, but
their contribution to the tourism sector is not so clear.
Another concern arises from environmental issues. According to official figures, in 2015
there were around 1.5 million tourists to the island: a number that is five times greater than
the TRNC population. Higher tourist numbers –especially during the summer period—
means high energy consumption at hot temperatures. Furthermore, more tourists means
more waste, more water usage and more congestion (large busses) in traffic. The infrastructure
of the TRNC is not sufficiently developed to cope with such an increment in the demand for
public goods. These issues, however, are never discussed by the policymakers.
When we consider the unbalanced geographical development of tourism on the island,
environmental concerns grow –especially because of the pressure put on Kyrenia’s coastal
7. conclusion 49
region, and this has also generated public attention. Infrastructural deficiencies, on the other
hand, are noted in the profit-oriented, ad hoc touristic development, which is perpetuated
through impassive or even supportive attitudes of policymakers. Another issue with regard
to geographical focus is that cities other than Kyrenia are underrepresented in terms of
tourism. Although assertive policies and strategies have been proposed (for instance,
developing Bafra as a tourism destination), they remain unrealistic since they are not sup-
ported by facts on the ground (infrastructural deficiencies, transportation difficulties, envir-
onmental demands as well as a high-handed attitude regarding location).
The future of the tourism industry in North Cyprus is uncertain. On the one side, the large
5-star hotels that are being built provide significant employment opportunities; however, it
is the hotels that gain the largest share of the benefit, due to full board options and gambling.
On the other hand, the smaller, traditional hotels/guesthouses are being driven out of the
market and their size disqualifies them from significant government subsidies. Furthermore,
the larger hotels pose serious environmental hazards, an issue that is unfortunately neglected.
As long ago as 1990 the then-government proposed to introduce a “Tourism Master Plan”—
a plan that was finally drafted in 2012. The lack of planning, not only in the tourism sector but
in all areas of economic development, has made the private sector heavily dependent on
government aid and support, which is not sustainable in the longer term.
This sector is supposed to be the heart of the economy following a possible reunification
of the island. However, beyond the issues related to infrastructure, there is the problem of
land ownership, as many of the Turkish Cypriot tourist establishments in Kyrenia are illegally
built on Greek Cypriot properties. Unless such land ownership issues are resolved, the
tourism sector in the North will take a huge economic hit.
50
8. REFERENCES
Beaudouin, E., Baud-Bovy, M. and Tzanos, A. R. (1962). Cyprus Study of Tourism Development,
Societe centrale pour l’equipement du Territoire – cooperation, Cyprus, December 1962.
Besim, M. and Sertoğlu, K. (2015). Stable and Sustainable Economic Growth in North Cyprus:
Sectoral Analysis and Policy Recommendations, report prepared in cooperation with Prime
Ministry and Eastern Mediterranean University, August 2015.
Competition Board (2016).
(http://www.rekabet.gov.ct.tr/Portals/1112/64-
2016%20BlueLine%20Gerekceli%20Karar%20KARARTMALI%2023%20Haziran%202016.pdf)
Diler, C. (2015). Hukumetlerin Vaatleri ve Hezimetleri, Soylem Yayinlari, Lefkosa, Kibris.
Hatay, M. (2005). Beyond Numbers: An Inquiry into the Political Integration of the Turkish
‘Settlers’ in Northern Cyprus, priO report 4/2005.
İşçioğlu, Deniz (2009). KKTC Kentsel Politikası Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme. aksaray Üniversitesi
İİbf dergisi 1(1): 149-161.
Prime Ministry’s Office (2015). Kuzey Kibris Türk Cumhuriyeti’nde İstikrarli Ve Sürdürülebilir
Ekonomik Büyüme: Sektör Temelli Analiz ve Politika Önerileri, Gazimağusa, KKTC.
Martin, J. (1993). The History and Development of Tourism, in The political Social and economic
development of northern cyprus, edited by C. H. Dodd, the Eothen Press, 1993, pp. 335-372.
State Planning Organization (2013). Economic and Social Indicators, 1977- 2013 Available at:
devplan.org
Tourism Planning Office (2016). Planning Report of Tourism Planning Office, August 1-
August 30, 2016, Nicosia.
Waldman, D. E. and Jensen, E. J. (2000). Industrial Organization: Theory and Practice, Second
Edition, Pearson Education.
Yesilada, E. (1994). Kibris’ta Turizm [Tourism in cyprus], Grafik Sanatlar Matbaacilik ve Ambalaj
Sanayii A.S., Istanbul.
NPP-National Physical Plan, City Planning Department, 2014.
Url-1 http://www.meydankibris.com/haber-lefke-ilce-oluyor-9504.html
Url-2 http://www.havadiskibris.com/halk-girneye-sahip-cikti/
Url-3 http://www.kibrisgazetesi.com/doga-cevre/kumyaliya-turizm-alani-ekonomik-akla-
uygun-degil/9428
51
9. APPENDIX A
Table A1. Bed capacities of some hotels, 2015
Hotel Bed Star
Acapulco 1578 5
Kaya Artemis 1484 5
Noah's Ark 1232 5
Salamis Bay Conti 850 5
Cratos 820 5
Merit Crystal Cove 632 5
Merit Park 580 5
Kyrenia Oskar 514 4
Merit Royal 508 5
Club Lapethos 482 3
Jasmine Court 392 5
Vuni Palace 352 5
Malpas 342 5
Dome 320 4
Rocks 314 5
Pia Bella 288 4
Golden Tulip 278 5
Grand Pasha 256 5
Savoy 256 5
Merit Lefkosa 244 5
LA Holiday Center 224 4
Deniz Kizi 222 3
Olive Tree 210 3
Palm Beach 204 boutique
The Colony 200 5
Korineum 172 Boutique
52 Sector Analysis – Tourism
50,0%
45,0%
40,0%
35,0%
30,0%
25,0%
20,0%
15,0%
10,0%
5,0%
0,0%
81
91
84
94
77
78
79
80
82
83
85
86
87
88
89
90
92
93
95
96
97
98
99
00
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
Figure A2. Percentage of all tourists who stay at hotels
70,0%
60,0%
50,0%
40,0%
30,0%
20,0%
10,0%
0,0%
81
91
01
11
77
79
83
85
87
89
93
95
97
99
03
05
07
09
13
15
19
19
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
53
10. APPENDIX B
incentives applicable for January 1, 2010 – December 31, 2013 (tour operators and
travel agencies)
Average occupancy rate Per flight subsidy (€) if the total Per flight subsidy (€) if the total
per flight (%) tourists is less than 10000 tourists is more than 10000
60-64 2000 3500
65-69 2500 4000
70-74 3000 4500
75+ 3500 5500
1500-4999 15,000
5000-7499 25,000
7500-9999 55,000
10000-14999 100,000
15000-19999 200,000
20000-24999 300,000
25000-29999 500,000
30000 + 850,000
54 Sector Analysis – Tourism
Plus more subsidies for promotion and advertisement - but requires prior approval from the
ministry. 70% of these payments are to be covered by the central budget (Tourism
Development Project) and 30% by the Tourism Development and Promotion Fund.
Subsidies for Special interest (at least 10) and closed Groups (Seminars, conferences, meetings,
franchise holiday packages, at least 40)
turkey other
5+ Nights 35 50
7+ Nights 45 65
advertisement subsidy for Special interest Groups (at least 4-7 nights accommodation) given to
tour operators:
15 euro (20 euro if from the UK)
+0.8 euro if accommodated at 1-2-3 starred accommodations or Karpasia Area ECO tourism
establishments
There are additional incentives given (to tour operator or the airlines) for closed group tourists
on the condition that the subsidy is used towards discount on the ticket prices.
from Turkey:
Except June 1- August 31
Tour operator per tourist subsidies
15 euro (4 nights)
25 euro (5 nights)
35 euro (7 nights)
30 euros (4 nights only in February)
extra 15 euro for accommodating at 1-2-3 stars plus Karpasia area
5 euro/ tourist subsidy for the tourism agency
from Other countries:
40 euro (5 nights)
45 euro (6 nights)
7 nights:
Cyprus is known as a tourist destination with plenty of sunshine and beaches. With
the island’s division in 1974, key touristic areas, with their accommodations and
Sector analysis
other facilities, remained in the island’s north and had the potential to generate in North Cyprus -
revenues for the Turkish Cypriot administration there. Due to the clientelistic (and
sometimes corrupt) activities of policymakers in the north, the utilization and Tourism
allocation of these resources have not been handled very efficiently. Although the
island’s north receives a significant number of tourists each year, the impact of this
sector on the overall economy is questionable.
Tufan Ekici
This report discusses the development of the tourism sector in the island’s north Gizem Caner
since 1974. After we give an overview of the developments in this sector for the
entire island before 1974, we first discuss the supply and demand for tourism
services in the post-1974 period. We introduce the number of touristic
establishments that came under the control of the Turkish Cypriot administration
after the separation. Section 4 then introduces a map of north Cyprus comparing
key measures in this sector between 1974 and 2016. Given the high level of
emphasis placed on this sector by the lawmakers in the north, we also discuss the
sector’s impact on overall economic development in section 5, with a separate
section on the casinos that have become a key contributor to this sector.
Overall, then, the report provides an overview of the uneven developments in the
north Cyprus tourism sector since 1974. The report includes statistics that were
previously publicly unavailable and a map that gives a clear picture of changes in
this sector.