Government of Pakistan

Ministry of Aviation (Aviation Division)

Pakistan Meteorological Department
Sector: H-8/2, Islamabad.
Tel:051-9250364
Fax:051-9250368

Date: 6th June 2023

Outlook for Monsoon (JAS, 2023)

Synoptic situation:
During the upcoming monsoon season (July-August-September, JAS-2023), it is anticipated that El Niño
conditions will prevail, while the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) will remain in positive phase. Taking into account these
global and regional circulation patterns, the outlook for Pakistan is as follows:
Seasonal Outlook:
The given climate conditions suggest that most areas may have normal to slightly below-normal
rainfall. Northern regions may experience slightly above-normal rainfall, while western parts of Balochistan
can expect near-normal rainfall.
Seasonal temperatures are expected to remain within normal* to higher than normal* ranges across
the country.
Impacts:

 Possibility of occasional extreme hydro-meteorological events over catchment areas cannot be ruled
out, that may generate riverine floods in the major rivers.
 Likelihood of urban flooding, hill torrents, and flash floods may also exist due to isolated heavy
downpours.
 Soaring temperatures in Upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Kashmir could accelerate
snowmelt, resulting in an increased flow of water into rivers.
 Farmers are advised to stay vigilant and plan water conservation for upcoming Kharif season
cultivation.

Note: The current outlook is based on the May atmospheric conditions.

In case of significant changes in atmospheric conditions, an update of monsoon outlook will be issued by the end of the
June.

*𝑁𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑙 = 30 − 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠 𝑎𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑐𝑙𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑐 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠.