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Investment Strategy & Model Portfolio: April'23
Investment Strategy & Model Portfolio: April'23
April’23
Equity Markets Overview
& Investment Strategy
Through the lens of the Charts…
Equity markets started the year on a weak note and posted FII’s turned net buyers in March, while MFs continued their
flattish returns for the month of March steady positive inflows
Energy & Metals were the best performing sector while Auto and Global equity markets ended March on a mixed note with US
IT fared the worst markets outperforming other markets
6.01%
3
Source: NSDL, Bloomberg, NSE, Money control Data as on March 31, 2023
Through the lens of Charts…
M-Cap /GDP Ratio has corrected from the peak levels seen in FY22 Earning Estimates (Nifty 50 Index)
FII’s were net buyers in equities to the extent of INR 79 bn. in March vs. net
sellers worth INR 53 bn. in February. While Mutual Funds bought equities worth
INR 176 bn. in March vs INR 128 bn. in February .
Mkt Cap to GDP at 96% is currently higher than long term average of ~78%.
While we have a long term positive view on equity, there is an expectation of
heightened volatility in the short term due to high valuations, rising geopolitical
tensions and hawkish measures from global central banks to mitigate the rising
inflationary pressures, especially in US.
4
Source: NSE, MOSPI, Motilal Oswal, ICICI Securities Research
Commentary on Select Sectors
Sector Commentary
Q4 is seasonally weak for IT companies on account of fewer working days, some additional furloughs in January. Q4 this
year has been eventful for the IT sector wherein on the one hand global IT giant Accenture continued to report strong
bookings in the outsourcing business (proxy to Indian IT companies) while, on the other hand, we witnessed fast paced
events unfolding in the global BFSI space (30-38% revenue mix for top three IT players).
We expect IT companies to post QoQ CC revenue growth between -1% and 2.5% for Q4FY23.
IT
In Q4FY23, we expect earnings momentum to continue to remain strong led by 1) continued robust credit offtake, 2) steady
elevated margins on the back of yield repricing offsetting higher cost of deposit and 3) steady slippages and resolutions of
few stressed assets leading to stable credit cost. The operational performance is expected to remain positive across
lenders.
PSU banks are seen delivering continued strong earning trajectory. Management commentary on segments to drive
BFSI advance growth, liabilities accretion while margin trajectory amid rising cost of funds will be keenly watched.
With softening of major commodity prices, FMCG companies have taken price cuts and grammage increases in the last six
months. This is expected to result in volume uptick in Q4FY23
However, rural demand conditions still remain soft compared to urban demand. We estimate our FMCG coverage universe
to see 9.8% revenue growth in Q4FY23 led by mix of volume & pricing.
FMCG
5
Source: ICICI Direct Research
Commentary on Select Sectors
Sector Commentary
New product launches as well as technical capabilities showcased in the alternate fuel domain during Auto Expo 2023,
robust wholesale volume prints for March 2023 thereby ending the year with ~20% volume growth for the industry in
FY23P
Resurging raw material prices from their lows, fresh price hike announced by OEMs in response to transition to BS-VI stage
2 norms (starting April 2023) and resurfaced chip supply issues were some key highlights for Q4FY23.
Auto Total industry volumes in Q4FY23 are expected to grow ~5% QoQ primarily led by outperformance in the CV and PV space
The I-direct Pharma universe is likely to witness decent growth during the quarter on a YoY basis, mainly led by continued
traction in the domestic formulations business, which also had tailwinds from the respiratory and anti-infectives windfall
during the quarter.
The US portfolio is also expected to deliver decent growth amid favourable currency movement and new launches
Overall, the universe (13 coverage companies) is expected to post ~11% growth YoY to INR 49,424 crore.
Pharma
6
Source: ICICI Direct Research
Market Overview and Strategy
March 2023 was a flattish month wherein returns for Indian equities were muted and it underperformed major global markets, due to
concerns of higher relative valuation premium which has however reduced in the last 3 months.
The Markets were impacted majorly due to fall out of bailout of US regional banks and forced merger of Credit Suisse,, sticky domestic
& global inflation and heightened geopolitical tensions.
Going forward, we expect Nifty earnings to grow at CAGR of 14.8% in FY22-25E. We are valuing NIFTY at 21,500 i.e. 21x PE on FY24-
25E average EPS of Rs.1020.
Indian markets are expected volatile over the short term and the future trajectory will remain guided by factors such as: 1) Pause by
RBI and global central banks to the interest rate hikes cycle. 2) Extent of impact on economic growth, more so in developed economies
3) Lag effect of a rise in interest rates on demand cycle on earnings growth in India etc.
The allocation to Equity can be made in a staggered manner over the next 6 months period, while clients can
utilize any correction of 5-7% to around 17000 Nifty levels for making lumpsum investment in equities.
Investors can also increase SIP allocation in current round of correction in markets and continue to allocate
funds to multi/flexi cap funds focused on Blended investment (Mix of Value & Growth) style of investment and
dynamic asset allocation funds
Any correction in Nifty to around 17000 levels can be used to deploy lumpsum across market cap and themes
like banking and infrastructure sector Funds.
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Debt Markets Overview
& Investment Strategy
Through the lens of Charts…
Inflation at 5.66% in Mar 23 drops to 15 month low Reduction of Surplus in (LAF/MSF) indicates tightness in liquidity
10 Yr G-Sec hardens to above average levels (FYTD Avg: 7.3%) Economic growth rate slows to 4.4% in Q3 FY23
6.22%
6.39%
7.4%
Source: RBI, Bloomberg | LAF = Liquidity Adjustment Facility & MSF = Marginal Standing Facility 9
Factors Impacting Short End of Yield Curve
01 Short
02
prevent disorderly deprecation aligns with the target, while
in Rupee. supporting growth.
Term
10
Factors Impacting Long End of Yield Curve
Inflation (-ve) Revenue (+ve)
06
CPI inflation eased to 5.66% largely
Total revenue receipts stood at INR 19.80
due to base effect and lower food
lakh Cr, or 84.3% of the budgeted estimate
prices including cereals and milk.
as on Feb’23 end. GST collections in Mar’23
01
stood at INR 1.60 lakh crore.
Growth (+ve)
India's growth slows to 4.4% YoY
05 Expenses (-ve)
in Q3 FY 23. FY 23 is likely to
witness growth rate of ~7%
Long Govt. expenditure up to Feb’23 stood at INR
34.93 lakh Cr, resulting in a fiscal deficit of
owing to domestic consumption
led economic buoyancy & higher Term 14.53 lakh Cr or 82.8% of budgeted
estimate of FY23. In the latest Budget, FM
02
tax revenues. has retained fiscal deficit target for FY 23 at
6.4%.
OMO/OT (+ve)
04 G-Sec Supply (-Ve)
03
Out of Gross Market borrowing of Rs 15.43
RBI will continue to conduct
lakh crore projected for FY 2023-24 in the
Operational twist to manage
Union budget, Rs 8.88 lakh crore (57.55%)
liquidity in the system and to keep
is planned to be borrowed in first half (H1).
yield curve, especially the longer
end under check.
11
Monetary Policy: Pause after six repo rate hikes in a row
Key Highlights
As on Sep 30, 2020:
INR 4,863 Bn. Crore
RBI has kept the repo rate at 6.50%. The standing deposit facility rate stands at 6.25% and the marginal standing facility rate is at 6.75%.
The average daily absorption under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) moderated to ₹1.4 lakh crore during February-March as compared with
₹1.6 lakh crore in December- January. On a y-o-y basis, money supply (M3) expanded by 9 per cent as on March 31, 2023 while non-food bank
credit rose by 15.4 per cent. India’s foreign exchange reserves were placed at US$ 578.4 billion as on March 31, 2023.
The MPC also decided to remain focused on withdrawal of accommodation to ensure that inflation remains within the target going forward, while
supporting growth.
These decisions are in consonance with the objective of achieving the medium-term target for consumer price index (CPI) inflation of 4 per cent
within a band of +/- 2 per cent, while supporting growth.
Source: RBI 12
Markets Overview and Strategy
The outlook on global growth has improved in recent months, despite the persistence of geopolitical hostilities and the impact of
monetary policy tightening by central banks across the world. Inflation is exhibiting some softening from recent highs, prompting central
banks to moderate the size and pace of rate actions.
We believe that domestic 10 year G-sec yields have peaked out with limited downside from here. We would recommend to capture the
existing yield from a long term and pre tax perspective.
CPI inflation print for March has eased to 5.66% largely due to base effect and lower food prices. However due to sticky core inflation,
hardening of crude oil prices as a result of OPEC supply cut and likely impact on food grain production due to El Nino impact, the focus
of RBI will be withdrawal of accommodation to ensure that inflation remains within the target going forward as well.
The investors having balanced risk profile can take debt exposure through Balanced Advantage Funds for tax
efficient returns.
Also clients who want to play peaking interest rate cycle with 4 to 5 year horizon with higher risk appetite in debt can
invest in Dynamic bond/Medium Duration funds at the current G-Sec levels.
For investment with the time horizon of upto 1 year, Arbitrage Funds should be considered for optimizing tax efficient
returns.
13
Gold, Crude Oil and Currency
Gold
Gold Performance as on March 31, 2023 (in USD) World Official Gold Holdings (Top 10 Nations) (Feb’23 1st Week)
Historically, Gold has had a negative correlation with equities and debt, and hence adding allocation to Gold in the portfolio can result in an
optimum diversification of portfolio. 6.01%
Gold prices edged up last month by 7.8% amid a sharp drop in the US dollar index and decline in US 10 year’s treasury yields. Furthermore,
the US Federal Reserve raised its interest rate by smaller magnitude for a second consecutive meeting ending the era of higher pace of rate
hikes and also signaled an end to its rate hike campaign. Additionally, bullion prices were supported on weaker macroeconomic data from the
US
We continue to remain cautiously bullish on Gold from medium to long term perspective, despite short term underperformance. We continue
to recommend (5% in core allocation) through Sovereign Gold bonds and (5% tactical allocation) through ETFs
Source: World Gold Council, Bloomberg | Returns till 1 year are absolute; > 1 year are CAGR 15
Currency
USD – INR & Dollar Index Performance (Mar’23 end) Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER)
Rupee appreciated by ~0.6 percent MOM to 82.18 against the US dollar in February amid weakness in the dollar, softening of oil prices
and anticipation that the US Federal Reserve was near the6.01%
end of its rate hiking cycle.
Moreover, market sentiments across the globe improved as concerns over US banking sector ebbed. Additionally, more than a year low
trade deficit of US$17.43 billion in February 2023 supported the rupee.
We expect Rupee likely to appreciate further in the month as dollar is losing its steam. Further, rupee may gain strength on optimistic
global market sentiments and FII inflows.
Source: Bloomberg, RBI | Returns till 1 year are absolute; > 1 year are CAGR 16
Crude Oil
Brent Crude Oil Performance as on Mar 31, 2023 (in USD) India’s Crude Oil Import (in billion USD) as on Feb’23
Crude Oil prices decreased by 4.3% in last one month and has fallen down by 23.7% in last 1 year
Crude oil prices tumbled last month and touched levels last seen in 6.01%
December 2021 as risky assets were battered on concerns over financial instability of banks
and contagion effects.
They were also pressurized as refilling the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) may take several years, dampening demand prospects.
Meanwhile, further downside was prevented after Russia halted oil supplies to Poland via Druzhba pipeline and European Union agreed on a tenth packages of
sanction on Russia
Prices are expected to rise as macro-economic headwinds took center-stage and apprehension about OPEC+ cuts and EU embargoes faded.
We expect Crude to trade around the elevated levels of 80-90 over the next few months, as performance of the marketing segment might improve owing to
lower losses on the diesel front.
Source: Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas, Bloomberg | Returns till 1 year are absolute; > 1 year are CAGR 17
Equity Model Portfolio
Equity Model Portfolio
Category Scheme/Fund Details Market Cap Bias Allocation Rationale
Canara Robeco Flexi Cap Fund Flexi-Cap 10.0% The large cap & diversified funds are essentially in-line with our market views
Large Cap/ Nippon India Multicap Fund Flexi-Cap 10.0% to choose strong stock pickers with blended investment style preferably with a
40.0%
Diversified Kotak Equity Opportunities Fund Flexi-Cap 10.0% multi/flexi cap strategy.
ICICI Prudential Nifty 50 Index Fund Large Cap 10.0% Index Funds/ ETF offers low cost passive investment options
Invesco India Contra Fund Flexi-Cap 5.0% Value oriented funds focuses on buying undervalued stocks and holding them
Value Oriented for the long-term. Exposure to value funds offers wider diversification as it
10.0%
Funds ICICI Pru India Opportunities Fund Flexi-Cap 5.0% takes exposure to sectors which are generally not in favour or are not
considered by Growth fund managers.
SBI Magnum Midcap Fund Mid Cap 7.5% We recommend exposure to mid & small cap funds to generate an alpha over
Mid & Small
15.0% the broader market. Domestic consumption and manufacturing theme can be
Cap Nippon India Small Cap Fund Small Cap 7.5% played by having exposure to mid & small caps
The Portfolio Manager follows ‘Contra’ style of investing which involves taking
contrarian bets i.e. taking calls/exposure on stocks which are currently not in
ICICI Pru Contra PMS Strategy Flexi-Cap 7.5% favour in the market but are expected to do well in the long run. The PM may
also select stocks of companies in sectors where entry barriers are high,
sectors is in consolidation or of companies in special situation
ACE Equity includes market leaders from across market caps and is an all-
Equity PMS 20.0%
weather portfolio, as its components have a higher market share in their
I-Sec Ace Equity PMS Flexi-Cap 7.5%
segments. The focus of this portfolio is on companies with strong balance
sheets and management teams that have shown disciplined capital allocation
Portfolio manager plans to build a portfolio of 40-60 companies which are
AAA India Opportunity Plan (IOP)
Flexi-Cap 5.0% market leaders with strong corporate governance and high growth potential
PMS
with investment horizon of 3-5 years.
Due expected domestic recovery in FY 23, allocation should be added to
Tata Infrastructure Fund Flexi-Cap 7.5%
Metals, Capital Goods, Infrastructure, Cement and Engineering sector
Thematic 15.0% Tactical allocation to leaders in BFSI due to improving trends in credit growth.
Nippon India Banking & Financial
Flexi-Cap 7.5% Focused on lenders with healthy business growth, improving operational
Services Fund
efficiency and steady asset quality.
Total 100.0%
Private and Confidential
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Equity Model Portfolio – Only MFs
Category Scheme/Fund Details Market Cap Bias Allocation Rationale
ICICI Prudential Nifty Index Fund Large Cap 10.0% Index Funds/ ETF offers low cost passive investment options
Invesco India Contra Fund Flexi-Cap 5.0% Value oriented funds focuses on buying undervalued stocks and holding
Value Oriented them for the long-term. Exposure to value funds offers wider diversification
10.0%
Funds as it takes exposure to sectors which are generally not in favour or are not
ICICI Pru India Opportunities Fund Flexi-Cap 5.0% considered by Growth fund managers.
SBI Magnum Midcap Fund Mid Cap 10.0% We recommend exposure to mid & small cap funds to generate an alpha
Mid & Small
20.0% over the broader market. Domestic consumption and manufacturing theme
Cap
Nippon India Small Cap Fund Small Cap 10.0% can be played by having exposure to mid & small caps
Large Cap/ Nippon India Multicap Fund Flexi-Cap 10.0% 14,092 43.42 27.77 27.64 1.16
40.0%
Diversified Kotak Equity Opportunities Fund Flexi-Cap 10.0% 11,608 55.25 37.32 5.68 1.75
ICICI Prudential Nifty 50 Index Fund Large Cap 10.0% 3,977 99.98 0.00 0.00 0.02
Value Oriented Invesco India Contra Fund Flexi-Cap 5.0% 9,348 66.90 20.20 8.63 4.28
10.0%
Funds ICICI Pru India Opportunities Fund Flexi-Cap 5.0% 7,644 56.20 19.36 12.62 11.83
SBI Magnum Midcap Fund Mid Cap 7.5% 8,733 10.64 65.58 21.06 2.71
Mid & Small Cap 15.0%
Nippon India Small Cap Fund Small Cap 7.5% 23,910 11.35 19.67 65.96 3.02
ICICI Pru Contra PMS Strategy Flexi-Cap 7.5% 73.00 13.00 14.00 0.00
Equity PMS I-Sec Ace Equity PMS Flexi-Cap 7.5% 20.0% 80.00 19.00 1.00
AAA India Opportunity Plan (IOP) PMS Flexi-Cap 5.0% - 55.00 24.00 18.00 3.00
Tata Infrastructure Fund Flexi-Cap 7.5% 951 38.77 39.98 17.11 4.14
Thematic 15.0%
Nippon India Banking & Financial Services Fund Flexi-Cap 7.5% 3,827 61.86 18.19 16.56 3.39
Total 100.0% 57.08 24.62 15.64 2.59
Nippon India Multicap Fund Flexi-Cap 15.0% 14,092 43.42 27.77 27.64 1.16
Large Cap/
50.0%
Diversified Kotak Equity Opportunities Fund Flexi-Cap 10.0% 11,608 55.25 37.32 5.68 1.75
ICICI Prudential Nifty 50 Index Fund Large Cap 10.0% 3,977 99.98 0.00 0.00 0.02
Value Oriented Invesco India Contra Fund Flexi-Cap 5.0% 9,348 66.90 20.20 8.63 4.28
10.0%
Funds ICICI Prudential India Opportunities Fund Flexi-Cap 5.0% 7,644 56.20 19.36 12.62 11.83
SBI Magnum Midcap Fund Mid cap 10.0% 8,733 10.64 65.58 21.06 2.71
Mid & Small Cap 20.0%
Nippon India Small Cap Fund Small Cap 10.0% 23,910 11.35 19.67 65.96 3.02
Tata Infrastructure Fund Flexi-Cap 10.0% 951 38.77 39.98 17.11 4.14
Thematic 20.0%
Nippon India Banking & Financial Services Fund Flexi-Cap 10.0% 3,827 61.86 18.19 16.56 3.39
Aggressive investors will usually accept high risk for the potential
Aggressive of substantially higher long-term capital growth. These investors 0% 80% 20%
will accede to wide fluctuations in returns from year to year.
Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable
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