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  • ManOp Forecasting

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    Wachidatul Ayu Fitri
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    1) Moving Average and Weighted Moving Average are forecasting methods where Moving Average is the simple average of past actual values and Weighted Moving Average assigns weights to past periods to calculate the forecast. 2) Forecast error can be measured using MAD, MSE, and MAPE where MAD is the mean absolute deviation between actual and forecast values, MSE is the mean squared error or average of the squares of the errors, and MAPE is the mean absolute percentage error. 3) Based on a sample dataset, the forecast errors using a 15% adjustment factor are MAD of 128.58, MSE of 25,788.71, and MAPE of 45.29% which is considered acceptable.

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    1) Moving Average and Weighted Moving Average are forecasting methods where Moving Average is the simple average of past actual values and Weighted Moving Average assigns weights to past periods to calculate the forecast. 2) Forecast error can be measured using MAD, MSE, and MAPE where MAD is the mean absolute deviation between actual and forecast values, MSE is the mean squared error or average of the squares of the errors, and MAPE is the mean absolute percentage error. 3) Based on a sample dataset, the forecast errors using a 15% adjustment factor are MAD of 128.58, MSE of 25,788.71, and MAPE of 45.29% which is considered acceptable.

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    8 views2 pages

    ManOp Forecasting

    Uploaded by

    Wachidatul Ayu Fitri
    1) Moving Average and Weighted Moving Average are forecasting methods where Moving Average is the simple average of past actual values and Weighted Moving Average assigns weights to past periods to calculate the forecast. 2) Forecast error can be measured using MAD, MSE, and MAPE where MAD is the mean absolute deviation between actual and forecast values, MSE is the mean squared error or average of the squares of the errors, and MAPE is the mean absolute percentage error. 3) Based on a sample dataset, the forecast errors using a 15% adjustment factor are MAD of 128.58, MSE of 25,788.71, and MAPE of 45.29% which is considered acceptable.

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    of 2

    a.

    Forecast dengan metode Moving Average dan Weighted Moving Average

    Xn
    Moving Average = Sn +1=
    n

    Weighted Moving Average =


    ∑ (Bobot periode n)( X ¿¿ n) ¿
    ∑ bobot
    Xn = actual pada periode ke-n

    n = periode

    Sn+1 = forecast periode ke n+1


    Forecast
    Weighted
    Periode Actual Sales Moving
    Bobot Moving
    average
    Average
    1 325 - - -
    2 400 362.50 1 400
    3 384 369.67 2 389.33
    4 423 383.00 3 406.17
    5 577 421.80 4 474.50
    6 296 400.83 5 415.00
    7 145 364.29 6 337.86
    8 130 335.00 7 285.89
    9 320 333.33 8 293.47
    10 355 335.50 9 305.78
    11 641 363.27 10 366.73
    12 538 377.83 11 395.27
    b. Forecast error dengan metode MAD, MSE, dan MAPE
    Diketahui: α = 0.15
    S1 = 315
    Forecast = Sn – α(Xn – Sn)
    ∑|X n −S n|
    MAD = = 128,58
    n

    Periode Actual Sales Forecast Error Absolute Square %Error

    1 325 315.00 -10.00 10.00 100.00 3.08


    2 400 316.50 -83.50 83.50 6972.25 20.88
    3 384 329.03 -54.98 54.98 3022.25 14.32
    4 423 337.27 -85.73 85.73 7349.42 20.27
    5 577 350.13 -226.87 226.87 51469.74 39.32
    6 296 384.16 88.16 88.16 7772.36 29.78
    7 145 370.94 225.94 225.94 51047.45 155.82
    8 130 337.05 207.05 207.05 42868.17 159.27
    9 320 305.99 -14.01 14.01 196.30 4.38
    10 355 308.09 -46.91 46.91 2200.46 13.21
    11 641 315.13 -325.87 325.87 106193.01 50.84
    12 538 364.01 -173.99 173.99 30273.14 32.34
    Hasil -41.73 128.58 25788.71 45.29
    E MAD MSE MAPE
    ∑( X n−Sn )2
    MSE = =25.788,1
    n
    ∑(X n−Sn )
    MAPE = = 45,29 (layak)
    Xn

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