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FACTS I Oil Sands Projects 2011-08-10
FACTS I Oil Sands Projects 2011-08-10
FACTS I Oil Sands Projects 2011-08-10
www.firstenergy.com
Total primary and thermal heavy oil/bitumen production from the Alberta oilsands regions declined
in May, with the decrease primarily attributable to a turnaround at Cenovuss Foster Creek project.
Long Lake production averaged 28.2 mbbl/d in May and 27.9 mbbl/d in Q2 2011. Nexen revised its
outlook for 2011 production in July, and is now expecting Long Lake to exit the year in the mid-30s
mbbl/d range, with production averaging 31 mbbl/d in the second half of 2011.
May production at MEG Energys Christina Lake project averaged 27.9 mbbl/d, and production for
the second quarter averaged 27.8 mbbl/d. MEG is currently steaming all 35 injection wells available
at Christina Lake, and all 35 producing wells now have electric submersible pumps (ESPs) installed.
Combined production at Cenovuss Foster Creek & Christina Lake projects averaged 104.5 mbbl/d
in May, as Foster Creek underwent an 18-day turnaround. Combined production for Q2 2011 averaged 116.6 mbbl/d. Cenovus announced in its Q2 2011 release that the partners have sanctioned
development of Christina Lake Phase C, as well as phases F, G, and H of Foster Creek.
Suncors Firebag project had its strongest month in nearly a year in May, averaging 57.6 mbbl/d,
while production at Mackay decreased ~7 mbbl/d from the previous month, due to a turnaround
averaging 25.8 mbbl/d. First oil from Firebag 3 occurred in July.
Production at Devons Jackfish project reached nameplate capacity of 35.0 mbbl/d in May, as volumes from the fifth pad at Jackfish 1 ramped up. Devon commenced steaming Jackfish 2 in May.
We have added Statoils Leismer SAGD project to our survey starting this month.
7.0
Cumulative SOR
6.0
Peace River
Athabasca
114
108
96
102
90
84
78
72
Tangleflags
66
Bolney-Celtic
60
Senlac
54
MEG
Leismer
48
Hilda Lake
42
Long Lake
36
Surmont
Tucker
30
Hangingstone
Jackfish
24
Firebag
Great Divide
18
MacKay
Christina Lake
12
Foster Creek
120
3.0
Cold Lake
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
300,000
403-262-0643 mpdunn@firstenergy.com
STP Senlac
SU Mackay
DVN Jackfish
COP Surmont
HSE Bolney-Celtic
SU Firebag
JACOS Hangingstone
Jan-10
Jan-08
Jan-06
Jan-04
Jan-02
Jan-00
Jan-98
Jan-96
Jan-94
Jan-92
Jan-90
Jan-88
Jan-86
Jan-84
Jan-82
Jan-80
STO Leismer
100,000
200,000
HSE Tucker
bbl/d
4.0
1.0
Steam-Oil Ratio
800,000
5.0
2.0
8.0
403-262-0661 balawson@firstenergy.com
Ranking System: Top Pick (T) Outperform (O) Market Perform (M) Underperform (U) Speculative Buy (SB) Tender (X)
Page 1 of 7
The information contained herein is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of securities. While the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this document cannot be guaranteed by FirstEnergy Capital, it was obtained from sources believed to be reliable. FirstEnergy Capital and/or its officers, directors and employees may from time to time acquire, hold or sell positions in the securities mentioned herein as principal or agent. FirstEnergy Capital (USA)
Corp., a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, is a wholly owned subsidiary of FirstEnergy Capital Holdings Corp. and operates as a Broker-Dealer in the United States.
SK
AB
AB
AB
AB
AB
SK
AB
AB
AB
AB
AB
SK
AB
AB
AB
AB
SK
AB
SK
AB
AB
AB
SK
AB
SK
Jul 10
Aug 10
Sep 10
Oct 10
Nov 10
Dec 10
Jan 11
Feb 11
Mar 11
Apr 11
May 11
2010
May
3,401
14,397
100,671
6,705
20,184
32,113
10,931
3,624
7,338
26,364
27,069
3,329
3,750
0
32,213
57,185
349,274
331,191
18,082
3,490
14,975
100,816
7,311
22,209
29,300
11,058
4,206
7,125
25,277
28,723
3,629
3,954
0
32,322
58,376
352,772
334,270
18,502
3,277
14,660
95,251
9,175
22,467
28,288
11,044
4,377
6,797
27,000
25,074
3,504
3,735
0
32,476
57,056
344,182
326,127
18,055
3,214
14,227
107,653
10,857
21,259
8,449
11,132
3,728
7,478
5,311
24,036
3,673
4,328
208
21,446
35,348
282,349
263,674
18,674
3,324
15,369
99,418
12,413
23,631
14,337
11,630
3,532
7,132
28,367
28,977
3,698
4,741
524
30,571
49,555
337,221
317,524
19,696
3,317
15,990
104,805
13,313
23,218
27,311
11,299
5,123
7,643
28,166
26,280
4,038
4,510
883
34,991
54,445
365,332
346,207
19,126
3,662
17,231
106,385
14,004
23,417
28,616
11,088
6,246
7,106
26,754
29,126
3,971
3,772
1,135
33,306
54,390
370,210
351,688
18,522
3,581
17,319
111,666
11,840
23,696
30,670
10,482
6,505
6,320
28,789
27,052
3,980
3,837
2,253
33,909
56,834
378,734
360,833
17,900
3,495
17,381
117,356
14,077
23,860
30,784
10,300
6,348
6,880
26,956
23,042
4,152
3,666
3,948
31,049
54,828
378,123
360,662
17,461
3,284
17,174
118,654
13,791
22,254
31,845
10,173
6,002
6,431
27,149
26,242
4,381
3,336
5,666
31,174
53,865
381,419
364,626
16,793
n/a
n/a
12,247
16,480
116,636
88,031
14,159
12,652
22,944
22,602
31,741
34,974
n/a
n/a
6,222
6,527
4,997
4,969
27,581
27,914
26,463
28,204
4,504
1,746
n/a
n/a
7,022
9,008
32,900
25,798
56,066
57,562
363,482 336,465
363,482 336,465
n/a
n/a
3,088
15,543
101,460
5,179
20,953
31,491
11,809
1,297
7,669
24,440
23,521
3,257
4,092
0
32,556
54,765
341,119
322,129
18,990
n/a
937
(13,429)
7,473
1,649
3,483
n/a
5,231
(2,700)
3,474
4,683
(1,511)
n/a
9,008
(6,758)
2,798
14,337
5,328
n/a
n/a
6%
-13%
144%
8%
11%
n/a
403%
-35%
14%
20%
-46%
n/a
n/a
-21%
5%
4%
2%
n/a
93,755
5,928
139,426
6,820
245,929
240,002
5,928
90,533
5,954
139,668
6,687
242,842
236,888
5,954
85,844
6,059
143,795
6,996
242,694
236,635
6,059
75,615
5,933
137,671
6,280
225,499
219,566
5,933
82,384
5,913
145,002
5,583
238,881
232,969
5,913
110,163
5,988
148,507
6,141
270,799
264,811
5,988
114,611
6,072
149,813
4,713
275,209
269,137
6,072
116,454
6,150
153,553
5,003
281,161
275,011
6,150
94,160
5,947
155,609
5,085
260,801
254,853
5,947
77,228
5,490
161,977
5,094
249,790
244,300
5,490
84,040
n/a
161,255
5,191
250,487
250,487
n/a
107,107
n/a
159,420
3,046
269,573
269,573
n/a
97,132
6,074
138,977
7,424
249,606
243,533
6,074
9,976
n/a
20,443
(4,378)
26,041
26,041
n/a
10%
n/a
15%
-59%
10%
11%
n/a
571,193
24,010
595,203
571,158
24,456
595,614
562,762
24,114
586,876
483,240
24,608
507,848
550,493
25,609
576,102
611,018
25,113
636,131
620,825
24,594
645,419
635,844
24,050
659,894
615,515
23,408
638,924
608,926
22,283
631,209
613,969 606,039
n/a
n/a
613,969 606,039
565,661
25,064
590,725
31,369
n/a
31,369
6%
n/a
5%
Page 2 of 7
Mackay
Firebag
Hangingstone
Christina Lake
Great Divide
Jackfish
Surmont
Tucker
Long Lake
Hilda Lake
Tangleflags
MEG
Senlac
Bolney-Celtic
Leismer
Cumulative SOR
20,000
10.0
18,000
9.0
16,000
8.0
14,000
7.0
12,000
6.0
10,000
5.0
8,000
4.0
600
6,000
3.0
400
4,000
2.0
200
2,000
1.0
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
Production (bbl/d)
Production Capacity
1,200
1,000
800
12
18
24
30
36
42
48
54
60
Oct-02
Jan-03
Apr-03
Jul-03
Oct-03
Jan-04
Apr-04
Jul-04
Oct-04
Jan-05
Apr-05
Jul-05
Oct-05
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
CNRL Tangleflags
Bitumen Production
Production Capacity
Cumulative SOR
7,000
Bitumen Production
9.0
6,000
Production Capacity
Cumulative SOR
140,000
10.0
10.0
9.0
120,000
8.0
8.0
100,000
6.0
4,000
5.0
3,000
4.0
3.0
2,000
2.0
1,000
Production (bbl/d)
7.0
Steam-Oil Ratio
7.0
6.0
80,000
5.0
60,000
4.0
3.0
40,000
2.0
20,000
1.0
1.0
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jul-08
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-01
Jul-10
Jul-09
Jul-08
Jul-07
Jul-06
Jul-05
Jul-04
Jul-03
Jul-02
Jul-01
Jul-00
Jul-99
Jul-98
Jul-97
Jul-96
Jul-95
Jul-94
Jul-93
Jul-92
Jul-91
Jul-90
Jul-89
Jul-88
Jan-02
Jan-01
Production (bbl/d)
5,000
Steam-Oil Ratio
Foster Creek
Bitumen Production
Steam-Oil Ratio
2,200
Page 3 of 7
25,000
Bitumen Production
10.0
40,000
9.0
35,000
Cumulative SOR
8.0
20,000
Production Capacity
30,000
7.0
5.0
4.0
10,000
Production (bbl/d)
6.0
15,000
Steam-Oil Ratio
Production (bbl/d)
7.0
25,000
6.0
20,000
5.0
4.0
15,000
3.0
3.0
10,000
2.0
2.0
5,000
1.0
-
Mar-11
Dec-10
Sep-10
Jun-10
Mar-10
Dec-09
Sep-09
Jun-09
Mar-09
Husky Bolney-Celtic
Production Capacity
Cumulative SOR
Bitumen Production
25,000
9.0
14,000
8.0
12,000
15,000
5.0
4.0
10,000
3.0
7.0
Steam-Oil Ratio
6.0
Cumulative SOR
8.0
7.0
20,000
Production Capacity
16,000
Production (bbl/d)
30,000
Production (bbl/d)
Dec-08
ConocoPhillips Surmont
Bitumen Production
Sep-08
Sep-07
Jun-08
Mar-08
Mar-11
Dec-10
Sep-10
Jun-10
Mar-10
Dec-09
Sep-09
Jun-09
Mar-09
Dec-08
Sep-08
Jun-08
Mar-08
Dec-07
Sep-07
1.0
Dec-07
5,000
10,000
6.0
8,000
5.0
4.0
6,000
3.0
4,000
2.0
2.0
5,000
2,000
1.0
1.0
Jul-01
Nov-01
Mar-02
Jul-02
Nov-02
Mar-03
Jul-03
Nov-03
Mar-04
Jul-04
Nov-04
Mar-05
Jul-05
Nov-05
Mar-06
Jul-06
Nov-06
Mar-07
Jul-07
Nov-07
Mar-08
Jul-08
Nov-08
Mar-09
Jul-09
Nov-09
Mar-10
Jul-10
Nov-10
Mar-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jan-11
Nov-10
Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
Mar-10
Jan-10
Nov-09
Sep-09
Jul-09
May-09
Mar-09
Jan-09
Nov-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
May-08
Mar-08
Jan-08
Nov-07
Jul-07
Sep-07
Steam-Oil Ratio
Production Capacity
Steam-Oil Ratio
Bitumen Production
Page 4 of 7
Husky Tucker
Production Capacity
Cumulative SOR
Bitumen Production
35,000
15,000
4.0
Production (bbl/d)
5.0
7.0
6.0
20,000
5.0
15,000
4.0
3.0
10,000
2.0
3.0
10,000
9.0
8.0
Steam-Oil Ratio
Production (bbl/d)
6.0
10.0
25,000
7.0
20,000
30,000
8.0
25,000
Cumulative SOR
35,000
9.0
30,000
Production Capacity
5,000
1.0
2.0
5,000
Apr-11
Feb-11
Oct-10
Dec-10
Aug-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Feb-10
Oct-09
Dec-09
Aug-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Feb-09
Oct-08
Dec-08
Aug-08
Apr-08
Jun-08
Feb-08
Oct-07
Dec-07
Aug-07
Apr-07
Jun-07
Feb-07
Dec-06
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
1.0
Steam-Oil Ratio
Bitumen Production
JACOS Hangingstone
Production Capacity
Cumulative SOR
12,000
80,000
9.0
70,000
Bitumen Production
Production Capacity
Cumulative SOR
8.0
60,000
7.0
6.0
6,000
5.0
4.0
4,000
3.0
Production (bbl/d)
7.0
8,000
Steam-Oil Ratio
50,000
6.0
40,000
5.0
4.0
30,000
3.0
20,000
2.0
2.0
May-11
Feb-11
Nov-10
Aug-10
May-10
Feb-10
Nov-09
Aug-09
May-09
Feb-09
Nov-08
Aug-08
Dec-10
Jun-10
Jun-09
Dec-09
Dec-08
Jun-08
Dec-07
Jun-07
Jun-06
Dec-06
Dec-05
Jun-05
Dec-04
Jun-04
Dec-03
Jun-03
Jun-02
Dec-02
Dec-01
Jun-01
Dec-00
Jun-00
Jun-99
Dec-99
1.0
May-08
1.0
10,000
Feb-08
2,000
Nov-07
Production (bbl/d)
10,000
10.0
Steam-Oil Ratio
Bitumen Production
Page 5 of 7
Shell Orion
Statoil Leismer
9.0
8.0
16,000
8.0
7.0
14,000
7.0
12,000
6.0
10,000
5.0
8,000
4.0
6,000
3.0
4,000
2.0
2,000
1.0
3.0
2.0
2,000
1.0
1,000
Apr-11
Oct-10
Apr-10
Oct-09
Apr-09
Oct-08
Apr-08
Oct-07
Apr-07
Oct-06
Apr-06
Oct-05
Apr-05
Oct-04
Apr-04
Oct-03
Apr-03
Oct-02
Apr-02
Oct-01
Apr-01
Oct-00
Apr-00
Oct-99
Apr-99
Oct-98
Apr-98
Oct-97
May-11
3,000
Apr-11
4.0
4,000
Mar-11
5.0
5,000
Feb-11
6.0
6,000
Jan-11
7,000
18,000
Sep-10
Production (bbl/d)
8,000
Cumulative SOR
9.0
Dec-10
9,000
Production Capacity
Nov-10
10,000
20,000
Bitumen Production
Steam-Oil Ratio
Oct-10
Cumulative SOR
Production (bbl/d)
Production Capacity
Steam-Oil Ratio
11,000
Bitumen Production
Cumulative SOR
Suncor Firebag
Trailing 3-month SOR
10.0
7,000
100,000
8.0
80,000
8.0
7.0
70,000
7.0
60,000
6.0
50,000
5.0
40,000
4.0
30,000
3.0
2.0
20,000
2.0
1.0
10,000
1.0
May-96
Nov-96
May-97
Nov-97
May-98
Nov-98
May-99
Nov-99
May-00
Nov-00
May-01
Nov-01
May-02
Nov-02
May-03
Nov-03
May-04
Nov-04
May-05
Nov-05
May-06
Nov-06
May-07
Nov-07
May-08
Nov-08
May-09
Nov-09
May-10
Nov-10
Jan-04
Apr-04
Jul-04
Oct-04
Jan-05
Apr-05
Jul-05
Oct-05
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
2,000
Production (bbl/d)
3.0
Steam-Oil Ratio
Production (bbl/d)
4.0
1,000
5.0
3,000
Cumulative SOR
90,000
6.0
4,000
Production Capacity
9.0
6,000
5,000
Bitumen Production
Steam-Oil Ratio
8,000
Bitumen Production
Page 6 of 7
Suncor Mackay
Bitumen Production
Production Capacity
Cumulative SOR
40,000
9.0
35,000
8.0
30,000
6.0
20,000
5.0
4.0
15,000
Steam-Oil Ratio
Production (bbl/d)
7.0
25,000
3.0
10,000
2.0
5,000
1.0
Apr-11
Oct-10
Apr-10
Oct-09
Apr-09
Oct-08
Apr-08
Oct-07
Apr-07
Oct-06
Apr-06
Oct-05
Apr-05
Oct-04
Apr-04
Oct-03
Apr-03
Oct-02
SAGD project type curves are generated by setting the first month in which a well produces oil to T=1, and then taking a simple average of calendar day production for each
vintage. Thus, the number of wells constituting average production is largest closest to T=1 and typically decreases as the months after well start-up increases. Average
production at the tail end of each curve will be comprised of the wells that have been on production the longest (pilot wells in many cases), and thus we caution against
extrapolating future well performance from these curves, especially for younger SAGD projects. Our intent with this chart is to show an indicative well ramp up time
period for each project.
Page 7 of 7