https://www.usip.

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In Pakistan’s Crisis, Judicial, Military Roles Will Be Vital

Upheaval over Imran Khan’s arrest roils a state already facing economic, political crises.

Thursday, May 11, 2023

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By: Asfandyar Mir, Ph.D.

On May 9, paramilitary troops in riot gear

broke through doors and windows of a
courthouse in Islamabad to arrest Khan
on charges issued by Pakistan’s anti-
corruption body. The case alleges that
Khan and his wife received land worth
millions of dollars for a university as a
bribe from a real estate tycoon.

The arrest caused immediate political

upheaval in Pakistan, where Khan is
Backers of former Prime Minister Imran Khan rally
extremely popular. Khan’s party and
in April 2022 against his ouster from office. As
supporters instantly assumed that the Khan seeks to regain power, his arrest triggered
military, which has long wielded decisive violent protests directed largely at the politically
influence in Pakistani politics, ordered powerful military. (Saiyna Bashir/The New York
Khan’s arrest. Protests broke out across Times)
the country, including outside military
installations. In a notable incident, supporters of Khan gathered outside the Pakistani
army's headquarters in Rawalpindi, broke into the main entrance, and damaged the
military’s emblem. Protesters in Lahore, Khan’s hometown, broke into the home of a
senior military commander, ransacking it and setting it on fire. Other incidents of violence
across the country caused casualties. In response, the military was called in to aid police
in Islamabad, and in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces.

Late on Thursday, the Pakistani Supreme Court ordered Khan’s immediate release to a
court-controlled guesthouse, declaring the arrest illegal for having taken place on the
premises of a courthouse.

The lead-up to Khan’s arrest

The current crisis, in particular the reaction to Khan’s arrest, is a result of Pakistan’s
complicated civil-military relations, which have included coups and military influence over
Pakistani politics. Khan’s arrest came after months of a major political tussle between

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Khan and his party — the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf or PTI — on one side and the
coalition government, led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, and the military
establishment on the other. Since his removal from office in a parliamentary no-
confidence vote in April 2022, Khan has campaigned against the military and coalition
government, accusing both of colluding with the United States government to engineer
his ouster. His supporters have responded with sustained large-scale protests over the
past year — and in one protest rally, Khan survived an assassination attempt in which he
was shot in the leg. Khan has also been seeking a swift general election in the country,
anticipating a landslide victory.

The Sharif-led coalition government has been defiant in the face of Khan’s pressure
tactics. The military has disputed Khan’s allegations and stated that Khan wants the
military to step outside its constitutional role to help him. Khan alleges that the army has
supported various political moves through the courts to contain him; there are dozens of
registered cases against Khan now. Khan has criticized the military establishment —
including the army chief, General Asim Munir — in rallies, interviews and on social media.
Before his arrest, in what was his most significant escalation against the military, Khan
accused a senior officer of Pakistan’s powerful Inter-Services Intelligence agency of
plotting to assassinate him. These public and direct accusations are novel developments
in a country where the military establishment has long been viewed as the guarantor of
stability.

What is the current state of play?

Khan's arrest left his supporters angry and determined to continue protesting. His
dramatic release by the court generated euphoria and reduced public rage, yet has left
uncertainty about what may happen to Khan next. At the same time, Khan’s party faces a
leadership vacuum, partly because it has no clear second-in-command to lead and most
of the senior leaders have been arrested on charges of instigating and directing the
violence against the military. Spontaneous grassroots mobilization in support of Khan is
possible, but it remains to be seen whether the PTI can harness the tide of emotion to
sustain a countrywide mobilization given the detention of much of its leadership and the
prospect of Khan getting arrested again.

Meanwhile, the government and the military are trying to contain and deter further unrest
by deploying the army across the country and authorizing the use of force if necessary. In
a strongly worded press release, the military criticized Khan and characterized the attacks
by PTI’s actions as unpatriotic: an assault on Pakistani institutions, notably army
properties, that the country’s external enemies “could not accomplish for 75 years” of
Pakistan’s existence.

Against this backdrop of political upheaval, Pakistan is in a severe economic crisis due to
dwindling foreign exchange reserves and a high external debt burden, putting the country
on the brink of default. Moreover, there is a heightened risk of terrorist violence. The
Pakistani Taliban movement has increased its insurgency within Pakistan from what is
now its safe haven in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan.

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What happens next?
Four developments will significantly shape politics in Pakistan and determine the
prospects of stability in the near term.

Judicial intervention. The Supreme Court’s order to release Khan adds to tensions
between the army and the court. The army had signaled its intent to hold the PTI
leadership, including Khan, to account for the violence against military installations,
so the release order, by offering reprieve to Khan and the PTI, dilutes the army’s
plan. The court’s intervention may also shield Khan in future legal proceedings as
judges are sensitive to cues from the Supreme Court’s chief justice. That could
frustrate military leaders and push them to consider emergency measures, perhaps
even direct intervention.
Military cohesion. Khan’s future prospects and the government and the military’s
ability to counter the PTI also depend, in great measure, on the military
establishment’s cohesion. Pakistan’s military establishment, generally composed of
senior officers in the army and intelligence services, has shown no overt signs of
fracture, but the past year has included signs of its cohesion being under pressure.
Khan and his party have significant support in military elite networks; retired military
officers have been extremely critical of the establishment’s approach and its
decision to distance itself from Khan since last year. Amid the widespread protests
and judicial intervention, senior military leadership may be under pressure to de-
escalate current tensions and take an off-ramp from the crackdown against the PTI.
On the other hand, the sense of embarrassment and breach of honor due to PTI
supporters’ attacks against military installations could create a “rally around the flag”
effect, and Khan’s support within the military’s elite networks may begin to diminish.
The military’s cohesion remains important to watch.
Level of violence. An important factor will be the scale of violence. The
government, in coordination with the military, has launched a major crackdown
against the PTI for inciting and directing violence. While Khan’s release immediately
eased popular anger, a re-arrest, which is possible, could revive protests. If
protesters target military personnel and installations again, the crackdown could
become more severe. Terrorist violence by the Pakistani Taliban, which has been
surging, also could add to the instability. In general, more agitation and violence can
trigger emergency measures, including countrywide curfews. That will also push the
country towards a direct military intervention. But if the protests persist beyond
those emergency measures, Khan may prevail, and the government and military
could back off.

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 Economic crisis. A wild card is Pakistan’s precarious economic situation. Pakistan
has been muddling through a balance of payments crisis, and in the next few
months, it has major repayments due to its multilateral, private and bilateral lenders.
To manage these repayments and avert a default, Pakistan foremost needs rollover
and refinanced loans of a couple of billion dollars from China. Pakistan is also
looking to revive a program of loans from the International Monetary Fund (IMF),
which remains stalled due to Pakistan not meeting the IMF’s conditions. The crisis
will make it harder for Pakistan to convince the IMF — and possibly even Chinese
leadership, which publicly called for political stability in the country — to provide the
help necessary to avert default and keep the economy afloat. The narrow path for
Pakistan to avert economic collapse has narrowed further.

What does this mean for the United States?

Pakistan is not high on the list of U.S. foreign policy priorities amid the U.S. focus on the
Indo-Pacific region. Nonetheless, its stability remains a major interest, given the country’s
possession of nuclear weapons and U.S. counterterrorism interests in the region — all of
which depend on the military’s cohesion. The escalated political crisis has put these
interests under stress. The prospect of a crackdown raises concerns about potential
unlawful measures that could undermine the rights of Pakistanis and push the country
closer to a direct military intervention such as an armed coup. At the same time, the
United States has limited tools and leverage to mitigate the upheaval. For now, it may be
useful for the U.S. government to carefully communicate to the Pakistani leadership the
importance of attending to the military’s cohesion; avoiding unlawful steps, including
excessive force against protesters; and not steering the country toward a direct military
intervention.

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