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DART India Chart Book - Sept 18
DART India Chart Book - Sept 18
DART Research
Tel: +9122 4096 9700
E-mail: research@dolatcapital.com
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
12
10
14
0
10
-30
-20
20
30
-10
Feb-14 Oct-14 Nov-14
Jan-15
May-14 Jan-15 Mar-15
Aug-14 Apr-15 May-15
Nov-14 Jul-15
Jul-15 Sep-15
Feb-15
WPI
Aug-15 Jan-16 Mar-16
Nov-15 Apr-16 May-16
Jul-16
Feb-16 Jul-16 Sep-16
May-16 Nov-16
Oct-16 Jan-17
Aug-16
Aug-17 Oct-17
Jul-18
-6
-4
-2
Aug-18
10
12
3
India Macros - Economy
0
4
-8
-6
-4
-2
2
6
8
10
0
-40
-30
-20
-10
30
10
20
40
100
120
0
60
20
40
80
-40
-20
Dec-15 Dec-15
Mar-15
Feb-16 May-15 Feb-16
Apr-16 Jul-15 Apr-16
Jun-16 Sep-15 Jun-16
Nov-15
Aug-16
Exports
Aug-16 Jan-16
Oct-16 Oct-16
Mar-16
Dec-16 May-16 Dec-16
Food Articles
Jul-16 Feb-17
Thermal Coal
Feb-17
Sep-16 Apr-17
Apr-17 Nov-16 Jun-17
Jun-17 Jan-17 Aug-17
Mar-17
Non-POL
Aug-17 Oct-17
Oct-17 May-17
Dec-17
Thermal & Coking coal traffic
Jul-17
Dec-17 WPI - Food and Non-Food Article Sep-17 Feb-18
Coking Coal
Aug-18
Exports Including POL & Non-POL (YoY %)
-60
-40
-20
Jul-18
120
100
140
India Macros - Economy
CPI Inflation Trajectory PMI- Services (YoY %)
8% 56
Grow th
54
6% 4.17 52
4% 50
Contraction
2% 48
46
0%
44
Jul-17
Jul-16
Jul-18
Aug-16
Sep-16
Aug-17
Sep-17
Aug-18
Sep-18
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Jun-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Jun-18
Oct-16
Oct-17
Oct-18
Mar-17
Mar-18
Feb-17
Apr-17
Feb-18
Apr-18
May-17
May-18
Jun-17
Jun-16
Aug-16
Aug-17
Jun-18
Aug-18
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Oct-15
Feb-16
Oct-16
Feb-17
Oct-17
Feb-18
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
If CPI is flat If CPI falls by 0.5 per month
If CPI increases by 0.5 per month If CPI increases by 1 per month
Index value(50= no change)
Source: DART, MOSPI Source: DART, Market Economics Company
40
377
210
110
113
140 30
47
44
35
33
32
31
29
26
25
23
70
20 12.7
0
10
FY15
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
Source: DART, Dept of Agriculture Source: DART, Ministry of Commerce
-0.5 7
-1.0 6
5
-1.5 4
-2.0 (1.8) 3
2
-2.5 1
-3.0 (2.6) 0
Q2FY19E
Q2FY17
Q1FY16
Q2FY16
Q3FY16
Q4FY16
Q1FY17
Q3FY17
Q4FY17
Q1FY18
Q2FY18
Q3FY18
Q4FY18
Q1FY19
-3.5
-4.0
-4.5
-5.0
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
Source: DART, RBI, * Bloomberg Estimates Source: DART, MOSPI, E: Bloomberg
Nov-14
Nov-15
Nov-16
Nov-17
Aug-16
Aug-14
Aug-15
Aug-17
Aug-18
May-15
May-16
May-17
May-18
Feb-15
Feb-16
Feb-17
Feb-18
(7)
FY19E
FY13
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
Export Import
Source: DART, Ministry of Finance, Source: DART, Ministry of Commerce
FY19E#
FY02
FY13
FY01
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
Sep-11
Dec-14
Dec-11
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Jun-14
Sep-14
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Jun-18
Sep-18
Mar-13
Mar-12
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
Mar-17
Mar-18
Source: DART, RBI, Till 20 August, 2018 Source: DART, RBI, * 2nd Advance Estimates, Economic Survey
2017-18, # Economic Survey 2017-18 Estimates
100 40,000
30,000
50 20,000
10,000
0 0
FY19*
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY18E
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
Nov-17
Nov-13
Nov-14
Nov-15
Nov-16
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
Mar-17
Mar-18
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jan-18
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
Sep-17
Nov-14
Nov-15
Nov-16
Nov-17
Mar-16
Mar-15
Mar-17
Mar-18
May-15
May-16
May-17
May-18
Electricity Petroleum Refinery Products
Growth of Cement Growth of Steel - RHS
Source: DART, CMIE Source: DART, CMIE
Consumer Durable & Non-Durable Growth (%) CV Production & Sales (YoY %)
25 100
20 80
15 60
40
10
20
5 0
0 -20
-5 -40
Dec-15
Aug-16
Dec-16
Aug-17
Dec-17
Aug-18
Jun-16
Jun-17
Jun-18
Oct-16
Oct-17
Feb-16
Apr-17
Apr-16
Feb-17
Feb-18
Apr-18
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jan-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
Nov-15
Nov-16
Nov-17
Mar-16
Mar-17
Mar-18
May-16
May-17
May-18
Production, Sales incl. exports of tractors NHAI Targeted, Awarded & Constructed
(YoY%) (KMS)
100 16000
14000
15,000
70
12000
40 10000
9,829
10 8000
6000
7,400
-20
4000
-50 2000
Jun-16
Jun-17
Jun-18
Aug-16
Aug-17
Aug-18
Dec-16
Dec-17
Oct-16
Apr-17
Oct-17
Apr-16
Apr-18
Feb-16
Feb-17
Feb-18
0
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Production Sales incl. exports Targeted Awarded Construction
Source: DART, CMIE Source: DART, NHAI
FY19E
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
Jun-15
Aug-15
Jun-16
Aug-16
Jun-17
Aug-17
Jun-18
Aug-18
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Feb-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Oct-16
Feb-17
Oct-17
Feb-18
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Guidance - Lower End (%) Guidance - Upper End (%)
Total container traffic Total Freight Traffic Actual Growth USD (%)
Jan-18
Jun-18
Jul-17
Jul-18
Aug-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Aug-18
Jun-17
Jul-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-17
Sep-17
Aug-18
Oct-17
May-17
May-18
May-17
May-18
Apr-17
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
Apr-18
Oct-17
Feb-18
Mar-18
Jul-18
Jun-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Jun-18
Aug-18
Oct-17
May-17
May-18
Apr-18
Apr-17
Feb-18
Mar-18
Jul-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jul-18
Jun-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
Jun-18
Aug-18
May-17
Oct-17
May-18
Apr-17
Mar-18
Apr-18
Feb-18
325
345
365
385
405
425
50
100
150
200
250
Jul-11
-5,000
5,000
15,000
25,000
35,000
45,000
-25,000
-15,000
Oct-15
Nov-15 Nov-11
Dec-15 Jun-16 Mar-12
Jan-16 Jul-16
Feb-16 Jul-12
Mar-16 Aug-16 Nov-12
Apr-16
Vehicle Loans
Jun-16
Consumer Durables
Sep-16 Jan-17 Mar-14
Oct-16 Feb-17
Nov-16 Jul-14
Dec-16 Mar-17
Apr-17 Nov-14
Jan-17
Feb-17 May-17 Mar-15
Total MF Inflow*
Mar-17 Jun-17 Jul-15
FII Inflow
Mar-18 Mar-18
Apr-18 Apr-18
Jul-18
Jul-18 Jul-18
250
500
750
India Macros - Finance
Aug-18
Personal & Credit Card outstanding (` bn)
Aug-18
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
Sep-18
8
5
6
7
8
9
60
62
58
64
66
68
70
500
5000
2000
3500
6500
8000
Aug-12 Sep-13
Nov-12 Apr-16 Dec-13
Feb-13 Mar-14
May-13 Jun-16
3,122
Jun-14
Aug-13
Aug-16 Sep-14
Repo
Nov-14
INR vs USD
Feb-17 Sep-15
MF SIP (` Cr)
Feb-15
Dec-15
May-15 Apr-17
Aug-15 Mar-16
Nov-15 Jun-17 Jun-16
Aug-17
May-16 Dec-16
Aug-16 Oct-17
Mar-17
Nov-16 Dec-17 Jun-17
Reverse Repo
Feb-17
May-17 Feb-18 Sep-17
Aug-17 Dec-17
Nov-17 Apr-18 Mar-18
Feb-18 Jun-18 Jun-18
May-18 Sep-18
7,554
Aug-18 Aug-18
DART RATING MATRIX
Total Return Expectation (12 Months)
Buy > 20%
Accumulate 10 to 20%
Reduce 0 to 10%
Sell < 0%
DART Team
Purvag Shah Managing Director purvag@dolatcapital.com +9122 4096 9747
CONTACT DETAILS
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