India Chart Book – May 2019

DART Research
Tel: +91 22 40969700
E-mail: research@dolatcapital.com

May 21, 2019

May 21, 2019 2
India Macros - Economy
Core Industries Growth &IIP (%) Exports Including POL & Non-POL (YoY %)
10 10 120
8 8
6
6 70
4
4
2
2 0 20
0 (2)

Feb-18

Feb-19
Oct-17

Oct-18
Aug-17

Aug-18
Jun-17

Jun-18
Apr-17

Apr-18

Dec-18

Apr-19
Dec-17
Nov-17

Nov-18
Sep-17
May-17

May-18

Sep-18
Jul-17

Jul-18
Mar-17

Mar-18

Mar-19
Jan-19
Jan-18

(30)

Core Industries growth IIP Exports POL Non-POL

Source: DART, CMIE Source: DART, CMIE

Traffic across major ports (YoY %) Thermal & Coking coal traffic
14 125
12 100
9 75
7 50
4 25
2 0
Nov-17

Nov-18
Sep-17

Sep-18
May-17

May-18
Jul-17

Jul-18
Mar-17

Mar-18

Mar-19
Jan-18

Jan-19
(1) (25)
Nov-17

Nov-18
Sep-17

Sep-18
May-17

May-18
Jul-17

Jul-18
Mar-17

Mar-18

Mar-19
Jan-18

Jan-19

(4) (50)
(6) Thermal Coal Coking Coal

Source: DART, Indian Port Association, CMIE Source: DART, CMIE

WPI and Fuel & Power WPI - Food and Non-Food Article
30 9
25 7
20
5
15
3
10
5 1
0 (1)
Feb-19
Feb-18

Oct-18
Oct-17
Aug-17

Aug-18
Jun-17

Jun-18
Apr-17

Apr-18

Apr-19
Dec-17

Dec-18
Feb-18

Feb-19
Oct-17

Oct-18
Aug-17

Aug-18
Jun-17

Jun-18
Apr-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Apr-19
Dec-18

(3)
(5)
WPI Fuel & Power (7) Food Articles Non Food Articles
Source: DART, CMIE Source: DART, CMIE

May 21, 2019 3

India Macros - Economy
CPI Inflation Trajectory PMI- Services (YoY %)
6% 56
54 Grow th
4% 2.92
52
50 Contraction
2%
48

0% 46
Oct-17

Oct-18
Dec-17

Dec-18
Jun-17

Jun-18

Jun-19
Apr-17

Apr-18

Apr-19
Aug-17

Feb-18

Aug-18

Feb-19
44

Feb-18

Feb-19
Aug-17

Aug-18
Oct-17

Oct-18
Apr-17
Jun-17

Apr-18
Jun-18

Apr-19
Dec-17

Dec-18
-2%
If CPI is flat If CPI falls by 0.5 per month
If CPI increases by 0.5 per month If CPI increases by 1 per month

Source: DART, MOSPI Source: DART, Market Economics Company

Production Pattern and Growth (YoY %) FDI Inflow (USD bn)

7.8 4.1 5.4 10 60
350 2.4
0.3 5 50 44.9
280 43.5
(6.1) 0
210 40
(5) 33.5
140 (11.3)
70 (10) 30
0 (15)
20
10
0

FY19*
FY08

FY15
FY07

FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14

FY16
FY17
FY18
2017-18 (2nd Adv Est.) 2018-19 (2nd Adv Est.)
YoY (%)

Source: DART, Dept. of Agriculture Source: DART, DIPP, Ministry of Commerce, *Up to Dec’18

India CAD as % of GDP GDP Quarterly (%)

FY19*
FY20*
FY21*

10
FY17
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16

FY18

8.2
8 7.1 6.6
6.5
0 6
(1) 4
2
(2)
(2.1) 0
(2.2)
Q4FY19E
Q1FY16
Q2FY16
Q3FY16
Q4FY16
Q1FY17
Q2FY17
Q3FY17
Q4FY17
Q1FY18
Q2FY18
Q3FY18
Q4FY18
Q1FY19
Q2FY19
Q3FY19

(3) (2.4)
(4)

(5) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19

Source: DART, RBI, * Bloomberg Estimates Source: DART, MOSPI, E–Bloomberg Estimate

May 21, 2019 4

India Macros - Economy
Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP) Export and Import YoY growth (%)

FY19E
FY20E
FY21E
50%

FY13

FY18
FY10
FY11
FY12

FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
40%
0
(1) 30%
(2) 20%
(3) 10%
(4) (3.4) (3.4)(3.2) 0%

Aug-17

Aug-18
Apr-17

Apr-18

Apr-19
Dec-17

Dec-18
(5)
-10%
(6)
(7) Export Import
Source: DART, Ministry of Finance Source: DART, Ministry of Commerce

10 Year Gsec Yield GDP Annual (%)

8.5 10
9 7.6
8.0 8 7.3 7.1 7.0 7.2 7.3
6.7
7
7.5 6 5.0 4.7
5
7.0 4
3
6.5
2
6.0 1
0
Feb-17

Feb-18

Feb-19
Oct-16

Oct-17

Oct-18
Aug-16

Aug-17

Aug-18
Jun-16

Jun-17

Jun-18
Apr-16

Apr-17

Apr-18

Apr-19
Dec-18
Dec-16

Dec-17

FY19E#
FY14

FY20E#

FY21E#
FY13

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18
Source: DART, RBI, Till 19 May’2019 Source: DART, RBI, # Bloomberg

Agri Production pattern (Mn Tonnes) Disinvestments

300 110,000 100,057
100,000 90,000
250 72,500 80,000
90,000
200 80,000
70,000
84,972

150 60,000
50,000
100 40,000
30,000
50 20,000 2,350
10,000
0 0
FY19E*
FY18E

FY19
FY16

FY17

FY18

FY20
FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

Kharif Production Rabi Production Disinvestments Budget Estimates (` Cr) Actual

Source: DART, Department of Agriculture Source: DART, DIPAM, * Up to 16 May’19

May 21, 2019 5

India Macros - Industry
Core Ind.-Cement & Steel Production Growth (%) Electricity & Petroleum Refinery Growth
30 20 15

20 10
15
10
10 5
0
Nov-17

Nov-18
Sep-17

Sep-18
May-17

May-18
Jul-17

Jul-18
Mar-17

Mar-18

Mar-19
Jan-18

Jan-19
5 0
(10)

Nov-17

Nov-18
Sep-18
Sep-17
May-17

May-18
Jul-17

Jul-18
Mar-17

Mar-18

Mar-19
Jan-18

Jan-19
(20) 0 (5)
Growth of Cement Growth of Steel - RHS Electricity Petroleum Refinery Products
Source: DART, CMIE Source: DART, CMIE

Consumer Durable & Non-Durable Growth (%) CV Production & Sales (YoY %)
25 100
20 80

15 60

10 40
20
5
0
0
Feb-18

Feb-19
Oct-17

Oct-18
Aug-18
Aug-17
Jun-17

Jun-18
Apr-17

Apr-18

Apr-19
Dec-17

Dec-18
(20)
Nov-17

Nov-18
Sep-17

Sep-18
May-17

May-18
Jul-17

Jul-18
Mar-17

Mar-18

Mar-19
Jan-18

Jan-19

(5)
(40)
Consumer Non Durables Consumer goods Total Production Total Sales
Source: DART, CMIE Source: DART, CMIE

Production, Sales incl. exports of tractors (YoY%) NHAI Targeted, Awarded & Constructed (KMS)
60 16,000
14,000
15,000

45 12,000
30 10,000
9,829

8,000
15 6,000
7,400

4,000
0 2,000
Feb-18

Feb-19
Oct-17

Oct-18
Aug-17

Aug-18
Jun-17

Jun-18
Apr-17

Apr-18

Apr-19
Dec-17

Dec-18

0
(15)
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Production Sales incl. exports Targeted Awarded Construction

Source: DART, CMIE Source: DART, NHAI

May 21, 2019 6

India Macros - Industry
Railway Revenue Earning Freight Traffic of Passenger Vehicle Trend
Major Commodities (incl. Domestic & Exim Container)
25 400,000 30
350,000
20 300,000 20

15 250,000 10
200,000
10 150,000 0
5 100,000 (10)
50,000
0 0 (20)
Feb-18

Feb-19
Oct-17

Oct-18
Aug-17

Aug-18
Jun-17

Jun-18
Apr-17

Apr-18

Apr-19
Dec-17

Dec-18

Nov-18
Sep-18

Feb-19
May-18

Oct-18
Aug-18
Jun-18
Apr-18

Jul-18

Apr-19
Mar-18

Mar-19
Dec-18
Jan-19
Total container traffic Total Freight Traffic PV YoY (%)
Source: DART, CMIE Source: DART, SIAM, PV includes Passenger Cars, Utility Vehicles &
Vans

MHCV Trend LCV Trend

60,000 175 80,000 55
50,000 150 70,000 45
125 60,000
40,000 50,000 35
100
30,000 75 40,000 25
50 30,000 15
20,000
25 20,000
10,000 10,000 5
0
0 (25) 0 (5)

Nov-18
Sep-18

Feb-19
May-18

Oct-18
Aug-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Apr-18

Apr-19
Mar-18

Dec-18

Mar-19
Jan-19
Nov-18
Sep-18

Feb-19
May-18

Oct-18
Aug-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Apr-18

Apr-19
Dec-18
Mar-18

Mar-19
Jan-19

MHCV YoY (%) LCV YoY (%)

Source: DART, SIAM, MHCV includes Passenger Carriers & Goods Source: DART, SIAM, LCV includes Passenger Carriers & Goods
Carriers Carriers

Two-wheeler Trend
3,000,000 30
2,500,000 20
2,000,000
10
1,500,000
0
1,000,000
500,000 (10)
0 (20)
Nov-18
Sep-18

Feb-19
May-18

Oct-18
Aug-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Apr-18

Apr-19
Mar-18

Mar-19
Dec-18
Jan-19

Two Wheelers YoY (%)

Source: DART, SIAM, 2W includes Scooters, Mopeds & Motorcycles

May 21, 2019 7

India Macros - Economy

Personal & Credit Card outstanding (` bn) INR vs USD

250 2,500 75
2,250
200 2,000 73
1,750
150 1,500
1,250 71
100 1,000
750 69
50 500
250
- - 67
Nov-17

Nov-18
Feb-18

May-18

Sep-18

Feb-19
Oct-17

Oct-18
Aug-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
Dec-17

Dec-18
Jan-18

Jan-19
65
63
Consumer Durables Credit Card Outstanding

Nov-18
Nov-17
Sep-17

Feb-18

Sep-18

Feb-19
May-17

May-18

May-19
Oct-17

Oct-18
Aug-17

Aug-18
Jun-18
Jun-17
Jul-17

Jul-18
Apr-18

Apr-19
Mar-18

Mar-19
Dec-17

Dec-18
Jan-18

Jan-19
Vehicle Loans Personal Loans (RHS)
Housing (RHS)

Source: DART, RBI Source: DART, RBI, As on 19 May’19

Mutual Funds and FII’s inflow in ` Cr. MF SIP (` Cr)

40,000 8,500

30,000 8,000
7,500
20,000
7,000
10,000
6,500
0
6,000
Feb-18

Feb-19
Oct-17

Oct-18
Aug-18
Jun-18
Apr-18

Apr-19
Dec-17

Dec-18

(10,000)
5,500
(20,000)

Nov-18
Sep-18

Feb-19
May-18

Oct-18
Aug-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Apr-18

Mar-19
Dec-18
Jan-19
(30,000)
Total MF Inflow* FII Inflow
Source: DART, AMFI, * Equity + ELSS Source: DART, AMFI

Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD bn) RBI Policy Rates (%)

425 7
405 7
6
385
6
365 6
345 6
6
325
Feb-17

Feb-18

Feb-19
Oct-16

Oct-17

Oct-18
Aug-16

Aug-17

Aug-18
Jun-17

Jun-18

Apr-19
Apr-17

Apr-18

Dec-18
Dec-16

Dec-17
Nov-18
Feb-18

Sep-18

Feb-19

May-19
May-18

Aug-18

Oct-18
Apr-18

Jun-18

Apr-19
Jul-18
Mar-18

Mar-19
Dec-18
Jan-19

Repo Reverse Repo

Source: DART, RBI, As on 10 May’19 Source: DART, RBI

May 21, 2019 8

 DART RATING MATRIX
Total Return Expectation (12 Months)
Buy > 20%
Accumulate 10 to 20%
Reduce 0 to 10%
Sell < 0%

DART Team
Purvag Shah Managing Director purvag@dolatcapital.com +9122 4096 9747

Amit Khurana, CFA Head of Equities amit@dolatcapital.com +9122 4096 9745

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