Exercise Sheet 4 – Probability I

Malin Tayert
5537597

Exercise 4.1
a) S = {rain, no rain}
b) S = {no tweets, 1 tweet, …, n tweets}
c) S = {mean age of facebook friends}
d) S = {Governance, Life Sciences, Culture and History, Environmental and Sustainability
Sciences}

Exercise 4.2
a) If two events are mutually exclusive, we can multiply their probabilities to determine
the probability that they will both occur.

à This statement is wrong because “mutually exclusive” already implies that the two
events cannot exist at the same time and therefore cannot be multiplied. To be able
to multiply them, they have to be independent.

b) If the probability of A is 0.7 and the probability of B is 0.5, the probability of both A
and B happening is 1.2.

à This statement is wrong because to find out the probability of both events
happening is cannot be 1.2. Logically it has to be lower than both P(A) and P(B) + a
probability can never be bigger than 1. Considering that these events are
independent, I would then have to multiply them. P (A and B) = 0.7 * 0.5 = 0.35

c) If the probability of A is 0.45, then the probability of the complement of A is -0.45.

à This statement is wrong because the probability of the complement cannot be

negative. It has to be between 0 and 1.
The complement of A describes all outcomes but A. 𝑷 (𝑬𝑪) = 𝟏 − 𝑷(𝑬)
P (AC) = 1 – 0.45
P (AC) = 0.55

Exercise 4.3
In Germany, 41% of individuals have blood type 0; 43% have blood type A; 11% have blood
type B; and 5% have blood type AB. Independent of the blood type, 85% of the German
population are rhesus positive, the rest is rhesus negative.

85% = rhesus positive (rhp)

15% = rhesus negative(rhn)
0, A, B, AB – standing for the different bloodtypes

a) Write down the sample space S of this example.

S = {rhp ∩ 0, rhp ∩ A, rhp ∩ B, rhp ∩ AB, rhn ∩ 0, rhn ∩ A, rhn ∩ B, rhn ∩ AB}
 b) Individuals of blood type 0 that are rhesus negative are universal donors. What is the
probability that a randomly chosen person is a universal donor?

15% = rhesus negative(rhn)

41% = blood type 0

P(rhn ∩ 0) = 0.15 * 0.41

P(rhn ∩ 0) = 0.0615 = 6,15 %

c) Individuals with blood type B rhesus negative can receive transfusions from people
with blood type 0 rhesus negative or B rhesus negative. What is the probability that
a donor has one of the compatible blood types for a patient of blood type B rhesus
negative?

P(rhn ∩ 0) = 0.0615 = 6,15 %

P(rhn ∩ B) = 0.15 * 0.11 = 0.0165 = 1,65 %

P (compatible blood type with B-) = P (rhn ∩ 0) + P(rhn ∩ B)

P (compatible blood type with B-) = 0.0615 + 0.0165 = 0.078 = 7,8 %

Exercise 4.4
An exam includes a multiple-choice question with five possible answers, exactly one of
which is correct. Students who know the answer to the question always select the correct
answer. Otherwise, students select one answer at random from the five possible answers.
Suppose that for this multiple-choice question there is an 80% chance a student knows the
answer.

a) Write down the sample space S of possible events for students answering the
multiplechoice question.

S = {knows answer and selects correct answer, does not know answer and selects
correct answer, does not know answer and selects wrong answer}

b) What is the probability to get the correct answer, given that the student doesn’t know
the answer? Illustrate the answer using a tree diagram

There is a 20% chance that a

student not knowing the
correct answer will guess right.
c) For a randomly chosen student, what is the probability the student got the correct
answer on this multiple-choice question?

P (correct answer) = 84%

P (knows answer I answers correctly ∪ doesn’t know answer I answers correctly) =
0.8 * 1 + 0.2 * 0.2 = 0.8 + 0.04 = 0.84 %

d) What is the probability that a correctly answered question reflects that the student
knew the correct answer (and did not just get lucky)?

𝑷 (𝑬𝟏 ∩ 𝑬𝟐) = 𝑷 (𝑬𝟏) * 𝑷 (𝑬2 | 𝑬1)

P (correct answer reflects knowledge of correct answer) = P (answers correctly I

knows answer) * P (knew the answer) / P (answers correctly)

P (answers correctly I knows answer) = 1

P (knew answer) = 0.8
P (answers correctly) = 0.84

P (correct answer reflects knowledge of correct answer) = 1 * 0.8 / 0.84 = 0.9524

= 95.24 %