MAY 2023

Paul Verna

Upfront TV and
Digital Video Forecasts
and Trends 2023
The End of the ‘Mad Men’ Era Gives Way to CTV
US upfront TV ad spending will fall during the 2023–2024 season on a YoY basis and relative to our
previous forecast, as the industry continues to veer toward digital programming. This eMarketer report
explores spending trends, including how digital video is making up for losses in the TV upfront market,
and what to anticipate for 2024.

Presented by
 Upfront TV and Digital Video Forecasts and Trends 2023: The End of the
‘Mad Men’ Era Gives Way to CTV
The first TV upfronts debuted in 1962 against the backdrop of the Cuban missile crisis, the UK release of “Love Me Do,”
and the opening season of the awful-yet-lovable New York Mets. Ad space was sold via paper and handshakes, and
a single currency measured all. Now, the upfronts are shedding their “Mad Men” roots and morphing into something
different—more digital, more fragmented, less predictable, and no longer transacted or measured against a single
currency. And, in a reminder of how the pandemic upended the upfronts in 2020, this year’s event has been rocked by
a writers strike, the cancellation of at least one major event, and high-level executive shake-ups. Ahead, we look at the
state of play at the 2023 upfronts, including our latest forecast for US upfront ad spending and how a shift toward digital
video, especially connected TV (CTV), is transforming this time-honored tradition.

KEY QUESTIONS
US Upfront TV Ad Spending, 2020-2025
1 How much will be spent on TV, digital video, and CTV at billions and % change
$19.33
this year’s and next year’s upfronts and the Interactive $19.04 $18.64 $18.79
$17.91
Advertising Bureau (IAB) Digital Content NewFronts?

2 What do upfront ad spending trends say about the TV

ad industry?

3 How will alternative currencies play out in the

2023 upfronts?

4 How will ad pricing, volume, and contract flexibility

factor into upfront negotiations? 6.3%
2020-2021 1.5% 2023-2024 0.8%

2021-2022 2022-2023 2024-2025

-6.6% -3.6%

Upfront TV ad spending % change

Note: includes TV ad spending per broadcast year resulting from the national primetime TV
Contents upfronts; includes broadcast networks and cable channels; TV includes digital
Source: eMarketer, May 2023
281623 eMarketer | InsiderIntelligence.com
2 Upfront TV and Digital Video Forecasts and Trends 2023:
The End of the ‘Mad Men’ Era Gives Way to CTV
KEY STAT: US upfront TV ad spending will fall during the
3 Upfront TV ad spending is trending downward. 2023–2024 season on a YoY basis and relative to our
3 Digital video is making up for losses in the TV upfront previous forecast, as the industry continues to veer toward
market. digital programming.
4 More CTV dollars are going to the upfronts.
5 Nielsen is still the leading currency for this year’s
upfronts.
5 A buyer’s market will lower prices and increase contract
flexibility.
6 What’s the vibe of the 2023 upfronts?
7 What will change starting with the 2024 upfronts?
9 Insider Intelligence Interviews

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 Upfront TV ad spending is US Upfront TV Ad Spending, 2020-2025
trending downward. billions and % change
$19.04 $19.33
$18.64 $18.79
$17.91
US upfront TV ad spending will fall by 3.6% to
$18.64 billion for the 2023–2024 TV season, a
downward revision of 5.0% from our previous forecast.
It will rise slightly for the 2024–2025 season but remain
nearly flat with the 2016–2017 figure of $18.46 billion,
indicating a market that has stopped growing on the
linear side as dollars shift to digital video.
6.3%
■ The same forces inhibiting topline TV ad spending 2020-2021 1.5% 2023-2024 0.8%

are acting on the upfronts. These include economic 2021-2022 2022-2023 2024-2025
uncertainty, falling ratings, cord-cutting, downward -6.6% -3.6%

pricing pressures, shifts in viewership from TV to Upfront TV ad spending % change

CTV, and migration of ad dollars from traditional to
digital media.
■ Despite the drop, the upfronts make up a growing
portion of the TV ad market. Roughly 30% of total
TV ad spending will happen during the upfronts, a
portion that has inched up over the past five years.
For all the TV advertising struggles, buyers still value
the price advantages of the upfronts, and sellers
value forecastable revenues. This is especially true
in consumer packaged goods (CPG), insurance, and
automotive industries, where TV continues to offer
unparalleled efficiency and quality.
A note on our upfront TV ad spending forecast: Estimating
upfront spending as a function of total TV spending is an inexact
science, since our upfront forecast is based on the seasonal
year for TV programming—which starts in the fall—and our TV
forecast is based on calendar years. Also, the upfront forecast
is limited to national spending, while our TV forecast also
encompasses local ads.
Note: includes TV ad spending per broadcast year resulting from the national primetime TV
upfronts; includes broadcast networks and cable channels; TV includes digital
Source: eMarketer, May 2023
281623 eMarketer | InsiderIntelligence.com
Digital video is making up for
losses in the TV upfront market.
Advertisers will spend $12.49 billion on digital buys in
the upfronts and NewFronts (the digital video version
of the TV upfronts) this year. This represents a 28.0%
increase over last year’s figure and an upward revision
of 7.4% from last year’s forecast, as focus increasingly
shifts to digital platforms.
■ Digital makes up well over half of upfront TV
spending. Unlike linear TV, digital upfront/NewFronts
spending is forecast on a calendar year basis, so the
same offset noted earlier applies when comparing
the two. However, over a longtime horizon, a trend
line emerges despite the discrepancy: The digital pie
is roughly two-thirds the size of the traditional pie,
compared with about half in last year’s upfronts and
about one-fifth in 2019.

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■ Upfront spending also makes up a growing portion ■ Growth as a percentage of upfront digital video: By
of digital video. This year, 14.8% of digital video ad this measure, CTV is at 69.4% this year and will surpass
dollars will be committed to the upfront/NewFronts 70% in 2024. This percentage has been rising steadily
market, a figure that’s been rising since 2020. We since 2017.
expect share growth to continue next year, reaching
16.9%. The trend is clear: Even though the digital video
■ Growth as a percentage of total CTV ad spending:
market is more fragmented than its linear counterpart, In our forecast period from 2020 to 2024, upfront CTV
buyers and sellers see upside in making upfront spending will have grown from about 30% to about
commitments on the digital side as well. 40% of all CTV spending. This is a sign that advertisers
are increasingly amenable to committing CTV dollars
US Upfront/NewFronts Digital Video Ad Spending, upfront. It’s also an indication that CTV is rising to fill
2020-2024 the void created by dwindling traditional TV dollars,
billions, % change, and % of digital video ad spending including in the upfronts.
51.8% $16.45 ■ Forecast adjustment relative to topline CTV ad
spending: Given the upfronts’ rising share of CTV ad
$12.49 spending, we increased our 2023 upfront CTV forecast
by 6.4%, compared with a 5.0% increase for topline
$9.76 CTV spending.
$7.61 31.7%
28.3% 28.0% US Upfront/NewFronts Connected TV (CTV) Video
20.8% Ad Spending, 2020-2024
$5.01 billions, % change, and % of upfront/NewFronts digital
16.9% video ad spending
14.8%
12.0% 13.2% $11.76
11.8%
68.2% 69.1% 69.4%
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
65.2% 71.5%
Upfront/NewFronts digital video ad spending
% change 58.7% $8.66
% of digital video ad spending
57.2% $6.74
Note: digital video ad spending committed in advance per calendar year, including spending
resulting from the TV upfronts, the IAB Digital Content NewFronts, and other
events/meetings throughout the year $5.18
Source: eMarketer, May 2023
281626 eMarketer | InsiderIntelligence.com
$3.27

35.8%

30.0%
28.5%
More CTV dollars are going to 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

the upfronts. Upfront CTV video ad spending

% change
% of upfront/NewFronts digital video ad spending
Upfront advertisers will spend $8.66 billion on CTV
Note: CTV video ad spending committed in advance per calendar year, including spending
video ads this season, rising to $11.76 billion next year. resulting from the TV upfronts, the IAB Digital Content NewFronts, and other
events/meetings throughout the year
These figures put upfront CTV video ad spending in the Source: eMarketer, May 2023
281628 eMarketer | InsiderIntelligence.com
lead by the following metrics:

■ YoY growth: While upfront CTV’s growth is fractionally

higher this year than digital video’s, CTV will be
significantly ahead of video across our forecast.
Notably, this year’s 28.5% increase is the lowest from
2018 to 2024, with other years in that time span ranging
from 30% to over 65%.

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The growth of upfront CTV ad spending is a barometer of
advertisers’ embrace of this channel as the new TV. While
there are differences between linear and CTV with regard
to targetability, campaign objectives, and measurement,
both mediums thrive on 30-second spots that are familiar to
viewers from decades of ingrained habits.
Nielsen is still the leading
currency for this year’s upfronts.
Despite TV networks’ experiments with alternative
currencies over the past 18 months, the bulk of this
year’s upfront buys—71%, according to February 2023
data from Advertiser Perceptions—will be transacted
on an age-and-gender basis against Nielsen’s legacy
panel. Advertisers are intent on being able to compare
their current buys with the competition and with
their own prior buys, both of which require a common
currency, specifically Nielsen.
For more on alternative ad currencies in the upfronts, please see
the report “Ad Measurement Trends H1 2023: The Industry
Prepares for Its First True Multicurrency Upfront.”
■ Nielsen’s “big data” currency will miss this year’s
upfronts due to pressure. The big data product would
have supplemented Nielsen’s legacy panel with data
from smart TVs and set-top boxes. The move disrupted
some advertisers’ plans to incorporate the big data
inputs into their media buys. This is happening despite
Nielsen’s accreditation reinstatement by the Media
Rating Council in April 2023.
■ There are key holdouts in TV networks’ efforts to
move past Nielsen. These include Disney, Netflix,
Amazon, YouTube, and Nielsen itself, all of which have
abstained from joining the Joint Industry Committee
(JIC) to seek measurement alternatives to Nielsen. The
JIC’s difficulty in attracting Disney and companies that
are more invested in streaming than linear TV highlights
the challenges in seeking consensus around an
alternative to Nielsen, at least for the 2023 upfronts.
Presented by
Interest Level in Transacting on Non-Legacy
Currencies at This Year's Upfront According to US
Brand/Advertising Professionals, March 2023
% of respondents
Very interested
15%
No interest
at this point
31%
Somewhat interested
but need to learn more
54%
Source: iSpot.tv, "2023 Upfronts Survey Results," April 20, 2023
281468 eMarketer | InsiderIntelligence.com
A buyer’s market will lower prices
and increase contract flexibility.
Industry experts we interviewed for this report
described the 2023 upfronts as a buyer’s market. That
dynamic is likely to lead to soft price increases, if any,
and more flexible contract terms for advertisers.
■ Sellers are not in a position to demand high costs
per thousand (CPMs) during this year’s upfronts.
This is due to economic uncertainty putting pressure
on ad budgets and advertisers having more choices
of where to put their TV and streaming dollars. “Media
companies that are overly aggressive with high CPMs
will be seen as out of touch in this current climate,” said
Erin Firneno, vice president of business intelligence at
Advertiser Perceptions. Instead of focusing on price,
networks are likely to make a play for volume, seeking
the largest budget commitments possible, according
to experts.
Copyright © 2022, Insider Intelligence Inc. All rights reserved. Page 5
■ Buyers are demanding more, and different types of,
flexibility in contract terms. After the 2020 upfronts,
advertisers successfully lobbied to be able to back out
of deals due to pandemic chaos. While the market has
since normalized, economic uncertainty and a shift
toward CTV have kept flexibility on the front burner.
This year, advertisers are interested in greater fluidity
in their budget allocations rather than canceling media
buys outright. This includes pay-as-you-go options,
moving investments between different calendar
quarters, moving them between networks in the same
media group, and moving them from linear to streaming
and vice versa, according to Catherine Walstad, vice
president of MA media at Marketing Architects.
What’s the vibe of the
2023 upfronts?
A series of upheavals in the days leading to the
upfronts threatened to overshadow what many had
expected to be big themes this year: a more digital and
programmatic market than past ones, and the long-
awaited debut of Netflix as an ad-supported platform.
More disruption is possible as the event unfolds.
■ Writers strike throws a wrench into the agenda.
On May 2, 2023—one day after the NewFronts kicked
off, and less than two weeks before the start of the TV
upfronts—the Writers Guild of America (WGA) began a
labor strike. Because the WGA represents film, TV, and
digital media writers, its work stoppage immediately
disrupted production of high-profile shows and has the
potential to affect ad spending if it runs longer than the
union’s last strike: a 100-day walkout in 2007–2008.
The NewFronts were impacted on May 2, when
protesters demonstrated outside the Peacock event
and actress Edie Falco—a star of the Peacock show
“Bupkis”—refused to cross the picket line. The following
week, Netflix canceled its upfront event and switched
to a virtual format. While the streamer didn’t give a
reason, Adweek reported the about-face was related to
the strike.
Presented by
■ Netflix and freeze. Netflix’s first-ever TV upfront was
among the most eagerly anticipated presentations.
But instead of making a big splash with live talent in
a theater full of ad buyers, Netflix had to settle for
stripped-down private sessions and was labeled a
“villain” to writers by The New York Times. It remains to
be seen whether the sudden change will affect Netflix’s
ad revenues this year, but regardless, this is surely not
what the company’s leaders had in mind when they
decided to join the upfronts.
■ Cuban missile crisis redux? In another shocking move,
NBCUniversal’s (NBCU’s) longtime chairman of global
advertising and partnerships, Linda Yaccarino, exited
the company to join Twitter as its CEO. This unfolded on
May 12, just three days before the NBCU upfront. In her
nearly 12 years at NBCU and nearly 20 years at Turner,
Yaccarino established herself as a savvy, successful,
and charismatic network ad executive and was a fixture
at the upfronts. Her abrupt departure came less than
three weeks after the equally unexpected ouster of
NBCU CEO Jeff Shell. Yaccarino’s role—including
her upfront presentation—will be filled on an interim
basis by Mark Marshall, NBCU’s former president of
advertising sales and client partnerships. Shell will be
replaced, also temporarily, by Mike Cavanagh, president
of NBCU’s parent company, Comcast. It is too soon
to gauge what impact these exits will have on NBCU’s
ad business, but in a nod to the first upfront, an ad
executive described the NBCU debacle as “a Cuban
missile crisis.”
■ A sizable percentage of upfront dollars are now
flowing through programmatic pipes, with more to
come. For example, CTV makes up an ever-growing
part of the upfronts, and 87.2% of US CTV ad spending
is programmatic when including YouTube. Now, some
buyers are asking streaming services to include money
they spend on demand-side platforms (DSPs) like
The Trade Desk in upfront commitments, per an April
2023 article from Ad Age. Sellers are receptive, but
disagreements are brewing between buyers and sellers,
with advertisers preferring private marketplaces and TV
networks gravitating toward programmatic guaranteed
deals, according to a March 2022 article from Digiday.
More jostling for control will persist as ad automation
continues to wend its way into the upfronts.
Copyright © 2022, Insider Intelligence Inc. All rights reserved. Page 6
 What will change starting with the
2024 upfronts?
Nielsen’s eleventh-hour reinstatement by the Media
Rating Council (MRC) and the suspension of its plans
to roll out a big data product will make this year’s
upfronts look more like previous versions than some
had expected. But proponents of alternative currencies
should see their wishes granted in 2024, when Nielsen
will have phased out its legacy panel and its C3 and C7
ad ratings (measures of commercials watched live in the
first three and seven days after airtime, respectively).
By 2024, digital currencies from the likes of iSpot.tv,
Comscore, VideoAmp, and even Nielsen—through its
Nielsen ONE offering—will figure more prominently into
upfront transactions.

■ It’s the end of the Nielsen world as we know it.

While Nielsen’s legacy panel is still the benchmark for
TV ad pricing and measurement this year, by next year’s
upfronts, Nielsen’s place in the TV industry will be as an
alternative currency in a multicurrency world. Pundits
have been proclaiming a “post-Nielsen world” for nearly
a decade, but in 2024 and onward, that characterization
will finally start to mirror the reality on the ground.

■ The TV picture will fade … to ones and zeros. TV will

dominate the upfronts through at least next year, but
later this decade, digital video will eclipse TV in upfront
spending volume. As that milestone approaches, the
upfronts and NewFronts will become increasingly
indistinguishable, to the point of potentially merging into
a single market.

■ Digital-first players will jockey for attention. Netflix’s

upfront debut leaves Apple TV+ as possibly the only
major digital-first programmer that has yet to join
the fray. That could change if Apple launches an ad-
supported tier, which seems plausible given its embrace
of live sports. Whatever happens, it seems likely that
Apple, Netflix, and other tech titans like Amazon,
YouTube, TikTok, Snap, and Meta will come to personify
the upfronts just as TV networks have since the “Mad
Men” days.

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 Insider Intelligence Interviews
Insider Intelligence and eMarketer research is based on the idea that multiple sources and a variety of perspectives
lead to better analysis. Our interview outreach strategy for our reports is to target specific companies and roles within
those companies in order to get a cross-section of businesses across sectors, size, and legacy. We also look to interview
sources from diverse backgrounds in order to reflect a mix of experiences and perspectives that help strengthen
our analysis. The people we interview for our reports are asked because their expertise helps to clarify, illustrate, or
elaborate upon the data and assertions in a report.

Vicky Chang
Vice President, Media and Ops
Tatari
Interviewed on April 17, 2023

Sean Cunningham
President and CEO
VAB
Interviewed on April 28, 2023

Erin Firneno
Vice President, Business Intelligence
Advertiser Perceptions
Interviewed on April 11, 2023

Kevin McGurn
President, Sales and Distribution
Vevo
Interviewed on April 11, 2023

Catherine Walstad
Vice President, MA Media
Marketing Architects
Interviewed on April 21, 2023

Andrew Ward
President
Ampersand
Interviewed on April 17, 2023

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