New Prediction Models For The Compressive Strength and Dry-Thermal Conductivity of Bio-Composites Using Novel Machine Learning Algorithms

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New prediction models for the compressive strength and dry-thermal conductivity of
bio-composites using novel machine learning algorithms
Mohsin Ali Khan, Fahid Aslam, Muhammad Faisal Javed, Hisham Alabduljabbar,
Ahmed Farouk Deifalla
PII: S0959-6526(22)00988-X
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.131364
Reference: JCLP 131364
To appear in: Journal of Cleaner Production
Received Date: 27 August 2021

Revised Date: 10 February 2022
Accepted Date: 12 March 2022
Please cite this article as: Khan MA, Aslam F, Javed MF, Alabduljabbar H, Deifalla AF, New prediction
models for the compressive strength and dry-thermal conductivity of bio-composites using novel
machine learning algorithms, Journal of Cleaner Production (2022), doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/
j.jclepro.2022.131364.
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Credit author statement
Mohsin Ali Khan, “Conceptualization”, “Writing - Original Draft”, Fahid Aslam, “Writing - Review
& Editing” and “Investigation” Muhammad Faisal Javed, “Resources” and “Formal analysis”,
Hisham alabduljabbar “Writing - Review & Editing” and “Visualization” Ahmed Farouk Deifalla
“Writing - Review & Editing”
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New prediction models for the compressive strength and dry-thermal conductivity of bio-composites
using novel machine learning algorithms
Mohsin Ali Khan 1,2, Fahid Aslam 3*, Muhammad Faisal Javed 4, Hisham Alabduljabbar3 and Ahmed
Farouk Deifalla5
1
Department of Structural Engineering, Military College of Engineering (MCE), National University of Science
and Technology (NUST), Islamabad 44000, Pakistan
2
Civil Engineering Department, CECOS University of IT and Emerging Sciences, Peshawar 25000, Pakistan
3
Department of Civil Engineering, COMSATS University Islamabad, Abbottabad Campus, Abbottabad 22060,
Pakistan
4
Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering in Al-Kharj, Prince Sattam bin Abdulaziz University,
Al-Kharj 11942, Saudi Arabia
5
Structural engineering department, Structural engineering and construction management, Future University in
of
Egypt, 11845 New Cairo, Egypt
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*
Corresponding author: f.aslam@psau.edu.sa
Abstract:
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Bio-composites have become the prime material selection for green concrete because of the increasing
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awareness of environmental issues. Due to their highly heterogenous nature, most of the existing studies have
focused on the experimental investigation of thermal conductivity (TC) and compressive strength (CS) of hemp-
based bio-composites (HBC). However, the tests to estimate the TC and CS may take long time and be costly.
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In this study, three different machine learning (ML) techniques known as artificial neural network (ANN),
adaptive neuro-fuzzy interface system (ANFIS), and multi-gene expression programming (MEP) are used to
predict and formulate a mathematical expression for determining the CS and TC of HBC. A total of 159 and 86
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experimental records for CS and TC, respectively, were achieved from the past published literature and the ten
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most influential input variables were considered. The performance of the proposed models was tested using root
squared error (RSE), mean absolute error (MAE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), root mean square
logarithmic error (RMSLE), root mean square error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (R), coefficient of
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determination (R2), performance index (PI), the objective function (OF), and other statistical measures
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recommended in the literature. Sensitivity and parametric studies were also conducted to assess the coherence
of the developed MEP equations with the actual physical phenomenon. Based on R, R2 and NSE, the increasing
order is ANFIS > MEP > ANN for both CS and TC. The overall R-value for CS models are 0.9929 (ANFIS),
0.9848 (MEP) and 0.9691 (ANN) while 0.9997 (ANFIS) 0.9759 (MEP) and 0.9601 (ANN) for TC. The
integrated measurements of statistical performance (PI and OF) of all models approach 0, stating the outburst
performance and generalization capability of the developed models. MEP also provides a simple empirical
mathematical equation for the prediction of CS and TC. The increasing trend of the importance of inputs
variables for CS and TC was calculated. The parametric trend of each input for CS and TC is in strong agreement
and consistent with the experimental results in the database. Thus, the projected equations for estimating the CS
and TC of HBC are accurate and feasible and can be used by the designer and practitioners to save the total time
required of hectic laboratory tests. However, it is suggested to validate the results of this research with the
latest experimental data and other ML algorithms must be studied.
Keywords: Hemp-based bio-composites (HBC), Compressive strength (CS), Dry-thermal conductivity (TC),
Machine learning (ML), Artificial neural network (ANN), Adaptive neuro fuzzy interface system (ANFIS),
multi-gene expression programming (MEP)
1 New prediction models for the compressive strength and dry-thermal conductivity of bio-
2 composites using novel machine learning algorithms
3 1. Introduction
4 The earth is undergoing significant climate change, the impacts of which are visible in the form of overall
5 atmospheric global warming over a very short period (Wuebbles et al., 2017). At the present, 30% of global
6 power generation is for the civil sector (IEA, 2008; Nations, 2018). Approximately 60% of the earth's
7 electric power is utilized in residential and commercial buildings (Ahmad et al., 2021). Apart from using a
8 significant sum of energy over the lifespan of buildings, they also contribute to nearly 30% emission of
9 global greenhouse gases (GHG) (Policy, 2013). The cement industry is another contributing agency, that
10 uses nearly 12-15% of the total industrial energy, releasing 5-7% of the total carbon into the atmosphere
of
11 (Sheridan et al., 2020). An International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that 4.1 Gt of cement was produced
12 in 2018, which releases 4.1 Gt of carbon (Benhelal et al., 2021). As a result, it can be deduced that a
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13 considerable amount of operational and embodied energy is used for the operational use of buildings
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14 and the production of construction materials, as well as the release of CO2 into the atmosphere, has
15 raised the environmental safety issues of engineers and scientists. Reduction in CO2 footprints and energy
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16 consumption from buildings, and the development of alternative eco-friendly construction materials, have
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17 become a necessity and a priority of modern society. Different researchers adopted a broad range of
18 methodological procedure towards a healthy and clean construction industry (Canakci et al., 2019; Canakci
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19 et al., 2018; Güllü and Girisken, 2013).

20 Recently, the use of bio-aggregate building materials is increased as a way of producing cost-effective and
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21 environmentally friendly construction materials (Siddique et al., 2018). The bio-composites are produced
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22 from the stem of plants (date palm, maize, hemp, corn stalk) that provide incredible biodegradable and
23 hygrothermal properties (Ahmad and Chen, 2020; Delhomme et al., 2020; Sáez-Pérez et al., 2020). Bio-
24 composites consume 50% less energy in comparison with regularly used thermal insulation concrete
25 (Ahmad et al., 2020). Also, bio-composite absorbs 14–35 kg/m2 CO2 from the atmosphere, whereas cellular
26 concrete releases 52.3 kg/m2 CO2 over a 100-year lifespan for a 250 mm of wall thickness (Boutin et al.,
27 2006). Several research studies revealed numerous raw materials utilized in the manufacturing of bio-
28 composites; however, plant barks like hemp produce reliable outcomes owing to their (i) sustainability, (ii)
29 renewable nature of plants, (iii), biodegradable nature, and (iv) hygrothermal properties (Delhomme et al.,
30 2020; Gu and Chen, 2020; Haik et al., 2020).
31 Among other bio-composites, hemp-bio-composites (HBC) are the most experimentally investigated
32 material, which uses hemp-shiv as the main bio-aggregate and Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) or lime as
33 the major binder. The major uses of HBC comprise of insulation of floors, roofs, walls, and the filling of
34 timber walls (Arnaud and Gourlay, 2012; Baduge et al., 2019; Boix et al., 2020; Del Valle-Zermeño et al.,
35 2016; Delannoy et al., 2020; Kidalova et al., 2011; Walker and Pavia, 2014; Walker et al., 2014). Due to
36 the hygroscopic nature of HBC, it improves indoor air quality. Research also identified its application as a
37 lightweight material (Ahmad et al., 2019). HBC is a heterogeneous material, and its performance
38 characteristics are strongly reliant on the mix-proportion. The major factors affecting the properties of bio-
39 composites are the bio-aggregate to binder ratio, bio-aggregates’ initial water absorption, and strength of
40 binder.
41 Mostly, the researches related to bio-composite are focused on experimental analysis, studies in the area of
42 efficient and reliable computer-based mathematical modeling are restricted (Ahmad et al., 2021). It is
43 essential to establish an effective and practical relationship between the governing parameters like water
44 absorption of bio-aggregates, quantity, and density of bio-aggregates, as well as quantity, density, and
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45 strength of bio-composite binder, and performance outcome like compressive strength, and thermal
46 conductivity.
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47 The ML methods are acquiring popularity and have effectively been used to model the complicated
48
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behaviors of several civil engineering structures due to their excellent predictive ability in comparison to
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49 conventional approaches (Zhang et al., 2020). Moreover, with the exponential advancement of machine
50 learning (ML) methods, knowledge discovery in data (KDD) for processes in materials, and civil
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51 engineering, in specific, has received attention in the last two decades or so (Vyas et al., 2015). The newly
52 settled ML techniques, like artificial neural networks (ANNs) having subtypes; Bayesian neural network
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53 (BNN), backpropagation neural network (BPNN), k-nearest neighbor (KNN), radial basis neural network
54 (RBNN), multilayer perceptron neural network (MLPNN), general regression neural network (GRNN), the
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55 fusion of ANNs, i.e., adaptive neuro-fuzzy interface system (ANFIS), alternate decision trees, support
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56 vector machines (SVMs), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), eXtreme gradient boosting
57 (XGBoost), ensemble random forest regression (ERFR), M5 model trees, evolutionary algorithms (EA),
58 genetic algorithm (GA), multi expression programming (MEP), genetic expression programming (GEP)
59 amongst several more, have supported the design of models with traditional statistical techniques like
60 regressions (Çanakcı et al., 2009; Gandomi and Roke, 2015; Iqbal, M. et al., 2021b; Iqbal et al., 2020; Pham
61 et al., 2016; Shahin, 2015a; Zhang et al., 2020). Mechanistic learning is often used to evaluate prediction
62 models to create an intelligent framework (Das, 2013). Güllü and Fedakar (2017) developed an optimized
63 quadratic model considering the natural logarithmic transformation, for the unconfined compressive
64 strength (UCS) of poorly graded sand using the latest optimization technique known as response surface
65 methodology (RSM). The GEP technique leads ANN by providing a simple equation for the estimation of
66 average shear wave velocity (VS30) (Güllü, 2013). The experimental data used in their study was collected
67 from the surface wave experimentation performed at region of California, USA using 60-accelerograph
68 stations (Güllü, 2013). The GEP equations developed for the rheological behavior of grout with bottom ash
69 gives promising performance than traditional non-linear regression models (De Kee and Robertson-Stiff)
70 with a regression coefficient greater than 0.96 (Güllü, 2017a). The study achieves a consistent pseudoplastic
71 response of rheological behavior in comparison with conventional rheological models (Güllü, 2017a).
72 Similar observations were also assessed for the cement-based jet grout with a bit lower regression
73 coefficient i.e., 0.86 (Güllü, 2017b). In addition, the GEP techniques is also effectively utilized for the
74 establishment of UCS and elastic modulus equations of bottom ash stabilized clay, which provides the
75 promising results with regression coefficient greater than 0.85 (Güllü, 2014). The comparison of developed
76 models for the prediction of UCS of silty soil stabilized with steel fiber (SF), jute fiber (JF) and bottom ash
77 (BA) under various freeze-thaw cycles using GRNN, RBNN, ANFIS and MLP technique, shows that
78 RBNN is the most accurate and reliable, yielding a higher coefficient of determination equals to 0.98 (Gullu,
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79 2017). The comparative study of extreme learning machine (ELM), ANN and GA for the prediction of
80 push-out of steel at various channel connectors subjected to different fire conditions (Shariati et al., 2019).
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81 The study reveals that ELM gives better, fast, and more reliable prediction of load than GA and ANN
82
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(Shariati et al., 2019). The hybridized algorithmic structure like ANFIS-PSO-GA leads RBNN and ELM
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83 in the prediction of load and slip of angle shear connecters (Shariati et al., 2021a). In comparison with
84 conventional learning algorithms, the SVM with firefly algorithm in a hybridized form for the estimation
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85 of shear strength of angle connectors stands outstanding (Chahnasir et al., 2018). Another comparative
86 study related to ANN, ANFIS and ELM reveals that ELM is faster and provides slightly better prediction
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87 of shear strength of tilted angle connection (C-shaped connecters) (Shariati et al., 2021b). The use of
88 hybridized ANN-GA and ANN-BP is extended for the prediction of strength of concrete made with slag
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89 and fly-ash using 1030 data points with nine different input variables (Shariati et al., 2020b). The study
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90 concluded that ANN-GA have a superior prediction capability than ANN-BP based on the statistical
91 performance measure (Shariati et al., 2020b). The development of 207 ANFIS models uncover most
92 influencing inputs amongst 23 parameters related to the corrosion of beams (Shariati et al., 2020a). The
93 mentioned review enumerates the role of ML algorithms in the filed civil engineering. However, different
94 studies showing the superiority of the ML models in a different way, depending upon the type of problem,
95 the number of datapoints, the type and nature of output parameter and input variables considered. An
96 extensive list of studies conducted by different researchers is summarized in Table 1.
97 Table 1. Machine learning algorithms utilized for the prediction of various properties of different
98 concrete types.
Machine learning
Reference Type of concrete Predicted properties
technique
(Malazdrewicz and High calcium fly-ash
Depth of wear Artificial neural network
Sadowski, 2021) concrete
Concrete beam with
Gene expression
(Murad et al., 2021) fiber reinforced Flexural strength
programming
polymer bars
Light weight self- Uni-axial compressive Gene expression
(Zhang et al., 2019)
compacting concrete strength programming
(Zounemat-Kermani Corrosion of concrete Microbially made Tree-based and neural
et al., 2020) sewer concrete corrosion network algorithms
Recycled aggregate Support vector machine
(Han et al., 2020) Elastic modulus
concrete and random forest
Artificial neural network
(Özcan et al., 2009) Silica fume concrete Compressive strength and adaptive neuro
inference system
(Golafshani et al., and adaptive neuro
High performance
2020; Mousavi et al., Compressive strength inference system
of
concrete
2012) Gene expression
programming
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Gene expression
(Iqbal, M.F. et al., Compressive strength,
Waste foundry sand programming
2021b; Iqbal et al., tensile strength, and
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concrete Multi-expression
2020) elastic modulus
programming
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Gene expression
Fly-ash based
(Chu et al., 2021) Compressive strength programming and multi-
geopolymer concrete
expression programming
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Rice husk ash Gene expression

(Aslam et al., 2021) Compressive strength
concrete programming
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Normal strength and

(Gandomi et al., Multi-expression
high strength Elastic modulus
2015) programming
concrete
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Aramid fiber
(Arabshahi et al., Multi-expression
reinforced polymer Strain model
2020) programming
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confined concrete
Carbon fiber
Multi-expression
(Ilyas et al., 2021) reinforced polymer Compressive strength
programming
concrete
Steel fiber reinforced Compressive strength,
(Ghorbani et al., Multi-expression
self-compacting split tensile strength and
2020) programming
concrete flexural strength
(Liu et al., 2021) Normal concrete Chloride diffusivity Artificial neural network
(Amani and Moeini, Reinforced concrete
Shear strength and adaptive neuro
2012) beam
inference system
Concrete filled steel Ultimate pure bending Adaptive neuro inference
(Basarir et al., 2019)
tube moment system
Hybridized adaptive
(Sharafati et al., 2021) Foamed concrete Compressive strength
neuro inference system
99 Furthermore, Giustolisi et al. (2007) categorize mathematical models as white, black, and grey colors.
100 Firstly, in white-box models, the parameters and known variables rely on physical rules providing an
101 accurate relationship with maximum transparency. Conversely, Shahin et al. (2009) concluded that their
102 invisible or hidden process is not well understood, making formulation difficult. Second, the black-box
103 models rely on regressive data-driven frameworks in which the functional relations between variables are
104 unknown and needs to be evaluated. Third, grey-box models are conceptual and logical structures in which
105 a statistical and mathematical framework more effectively evaluates the behavior of the system. Both,
106 ANNs and ANFIS are classified as ‘black-box models' due to their lack of clarity, failure to directly describe
107 the actual physical mechanisms, and failure to generate ultimate prediction equations (Sun et al., 2015). It
108 is noteworthy that Neural networks (NN) algorithms can be only utilized for the optimization process
109 (Oltean and Groşan, 2003). On contrary, many evolutionary algorithms (EA) like genetic algorithm (GA),
110 model tree algorithm (M5P), gene expression programming (GEP), and multi-gene expression
111 programming (MEP) are known as a "grey box model" due to its symbolic and uncomplicated
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112 conceptualization of physical phenomena (Naghadehi et al., 2018; Shahin, 2015a). Few researchers
113 implemented the M5P algorithm to model the properties of different types of concrete via several
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114 influencing input variables (Fan et al., 2019). Low statistical errors and high correlation between input
115
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variables and response parameters were accomplished for the established models but the parametric study
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116 could not be carried out because of the linear structure of decision trees which reduces its efficiency when
117 applied to fresh and unseen data (Fan et al., 2019). In civil engineering, particularly evaluating the behavior
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118 of materials, though the GP models are thought to accomplish better results than the ANNs and ANFIS,
119 comparative analysis on different AI techniques is still being conducted to peruse additional insights
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120 (Çanakcı et al., 2009; Gandomi and Roke, 2015; Hanandeh et al., 2020), such as Jumaa and Yousif (2018)
121 deduced that ANNs models accomplish better results than genetic programming (GP) models. On the
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122 contrary, GP-based models are effective and robust as no predefined relations are assumed while creating
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123 the model (Giustolisi et al., 2007). Also, the GP algorithms are advantageous as it delivers a practical and
124 reliable mathematical equation of high prediction and generalization capacity. With these uncertainties in
125 mind, this study implements two neural network algorithms (like ANN and ANFIS), and one evolutionary
126 algorithm (like MEP) for estimating the CS and TC of HBC to compare the performance and efficacy of the
127 model, with a special focus on the MEP approach.
128 First, the ANNs are AI-stimulated human brain neurons systems and problem-solving simulation models
129 that replicate the biological process of our brain and central nervous system (Gandomi and Roke, 2015).
130 ANNs promptly acquire the relationship between the explanatory variables and the subsequent response
131 parameters (Shahin et al., 2001), however, they lack in yielding an empirical equation which obstructs their
132 practicality regardless of their higher accuracy (Das, 2013; Yaman et al., 2017). Second, ANFIS is based
133 on the principles of ANN and a Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (TKS) form of fuzzy interface system (Naderpour
134 and Mirrashid, 2020; Sugeno, 1985) that was invented in the 1980s by Jang (Jang, 1993). It is a hybrid
135 model technique that incorporates both the ANN and fuzzy logic algorithms. It is worth noting that fuzzy
136 logic involves either true or false and does not function like 0's/1's logic (Mazari and Rodriguez, 2016;
137 Shahmansouri et al., 2021). Finally, in 1985, Cramer introduced Genetic Programming (GP), which was
138 later enhanced using a variety of sizes and shapes (Cheng et al., 2020; Koza and Koza, 1992), and in 1999,
139 Candida Ferreira (Ferreira, 2001; Ferreira, 2006) invented the EA technique known as GEP. The GEP
140 consists of linear chromosomes with fixed lengths for encryption programs and can predict highly complex
141 nonlinear problems (Shishegaran et al., 2020) for solving modeling functions, regressions, forecasting,
142 detecting, and data analysis (Li et al., 2019; Mousavi et al., 2015). In the GP technique, the Roulette wheel
143 is utilized for picking the data that is simultaneously regenerated with the aid of genetic operators
144 (Armaghani et al., 2018). In a duplication operation, the unnecessary data is discarded, while the appropriate
145 data is transmitted and processed from the existing generation to the next generation (Faradonbeh et al.,
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146 2018; Khan, M.A. et al., 2022). GEP models are effective because they provide a simple mathematical
147 equation for estimating the dependent response parameter (Gandomi et al., 2011). Ahmad et al. (2021) use
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148 the GEP technique to predict the compressive strength, thermal conductivity, and dry density of HBC. The
149
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error, sensitivity, and parametric analysis were conducted to reckon the reliability and accurateness of the
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150 projected models. However, GEP had a limitation of not incorporating some deviating data points during
151 model development thus limiting the range of applicability (Chu et al., 2021; Jalal et al., 2021a). The certain
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152 deviating data points had to be omitted from the training, validation, and testing set to enhance the
153 performance and efficacy of the models. Furthermore, GEP embeds a single expression or chromosome in
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154 their program and is appropriate when the relationship between input variables and response parameters is
155 very clear (Oltean and Grosan, 2003; Oltean and Groşan, 2003). To address the aforementioned
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156 inadequacies, an innovation in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector known as Multiple Expression
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157 Programming (MEP) provides a reliable and efficient method for developing precise mathematical
158 formulas for problems that are dependent on several parameters. The prominent characteristic of MEP is
159 its capability to code several expressions or chromosomes into a single program. The best chromosome is
160 then selected and represented as the ultimate solution of the problem (Oltean and Dumitrescu, 2002; Oltean
161 and Grosan, 2003). Amongst other EA’s, the MEP is an improved and best alternative of GP as it has an
162 ability to accurately predict the results when the complexity of target is undefined (Arabshahi et al., 2020).
163 It is not necessary to pre-define or pre-specify the ultimate representation of an expression like in other
164 machine learning (ML) techniques. In the evolution process of MEP, the mathematical errors are
165 eliminated, and a refined solution is delivered in term of final expression. Unlike other ML techniques, the
166 decoding process of MEP is relatively easy and simple. In spite of other noticeable advantages of MEP, it’s
167 use in civil engineering field is rare (Alavi and Gandomi, 2011b; Arabshahi et al., 2020; Chu et al., 2021;
168 Fallahpour et al., 2021; Iqbal, M.F. et al., 2021a).
169 The laboratory methods are time-consuming, costly, and require well-trained investigators. Therefore, the
170 prime aims of the research were to establish MEP-based empirical prediction expression, to investigate the
171 suitability of the ANN and ANFIS techniques and compare the efficiency of the MEP equation to that of
172 the ANN and ANFIS techniques for predicting the CS and TC of HBC. Ten explanatory variables are used
173 as an input, i.e., percentage of plant aggregate by weight (PA%), percentage of water absorption by weight
174 (WPA%), percentage of binder by weight (B%), plant aggregate to binder ratio (PA/B), water content to
175 binder ratio (W/B), compressive strength of binder (CSB), the density of cementitious binder (ρB), the
176 density of plant aggregate (ρPA), dry density of composite (ρC), and diameter of plant aggregate (DPA). These
177 input variables are used based on the previous studies. The statistical performance evaluation criterion, like
178 root squared error (RSE), mean absolute error (MAE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), root mean square
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179 logarithmic error (RMSLE), root mean square error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (R), coefficient of
180 determination (R2) and other statistical measures recommended in the literature were used to test the
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181 feasibility of the ANN, ANFIS, and MEP based models. Furthermore, a parametric analysis was carried
182
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out, and the results were then interpreted to describe the most positive and negative explanatory variables
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183 via sensitivity analysis.
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184 2. Materials
185 2.1 Overview of ANN, ANFIS, and MEP techniques

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186 Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are computational algorithms to efficiently forecast and classify
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187 problems relating to data handling (Fabani et al., 2021). They encompass mathematical models which are
188 stimulated by the features of human neurons architecture similar to the human brain (Mazari and Rodriguez,
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189 2016). ANNs have a layered structure with several arranged nodes or processing elements (PEs). These
190 layers are; an input layer comprised of explanatory variables, the hidden layer/s having hidden variables
191 known as hidden neurons and an output layer consists of target or response parameter/s (See Figure 1)
192 (Kourgialas et al., 2015). It can be seen, that ten different parameters (PA%, B%, PA/B, W/B, CSB, ρB, ρPA,
193 ρC, WPA%, DPA) were chosen as explanatory variables to decide the respective response or target that are
194 compressive strength (CS) and dry thermal conductivity (TC) of bio-composites. In the
195 hidden/concealed layer, every explanatory variable from the input layer is multiplied by an appropriate
196 weight (Wj PA%, Wj B%, Wj PA/B, Wj W/B, Wj CSB, Wj ρB, Wj ρPA, Wj ρC, Wj WPA%, Wj DPA). Each
197 node adds a threshold value (θj) to the number of the weighted input signals. Following that, the integrated
198 input (Ij) goes across the conversion phase, which includes a non-linear activation conversion function.
199 Among the several activation transfers functions (AFs) commonly used in ANNs are: linear, hyperbolic
200 tangent sigmoid and logistic sigmoid (Das, 2013). AF is a key feature of ANNs, and it has a significant
201 effect on the efficiency of the models (for example, it aids in providing non-linearity to the networks),
202 indicating that choosing a suitable AF is important (Azimi-Pour and Eskandari-Naddaf, 2018; Koçak and
203 Şiray, 2021). Other popular AFs previously used to enhance the performance of ANN models include the
204 Multistate AFs (Cai et al., 2015), the tangent hyperbolic and logistic sigmoid AFs (Xu et al., 2016),
205 transcendental parametric algebraic AF (Naresh Babu and Edla, 2017), swish AFs (Ramachandran et al.,
206 2017), and so on. In this study, PURELIN (a linear transfer function) and TRANSIG (BPNN transfer
207 functions that are similar to a bipolar sigmoid with output value varying from -1 to +1) are used which
208 creates lots of neurons in every layer as well as each transfer function, enhancing statistical metrics for
209 training subset while lowering accuracy for validation and testing subset (Tahani et al., 2016). Dorofki et
210 al. (2012), studied several different statistical functions, it was found that the log-sigmoid transfer function
211 worked the best because it is bounded, differentiable, and continuous; however, the PURELIN transfer
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212 function tends to produce much improved results. As a consequence, the resulting response is PE. It is
213 noteworthy that the output from one PE serves as the input for next another PE. The logistic function
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214 (Equation (1)) was used as an AF executed by each neuron in the hidden and output layers (Hanandeh et
215
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al., 2020). In addition, Equations (1)–(3) depict the aforementioned method.
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1
𝑓ℎ (𝑧) = (1)
1 + 𝑒 −𝑧
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𝑃𝐴
𝐼𝑗 = {(𝑤𝑗 𝑃𝐴% ∗ 𝑃𝐴% + 𝑤𝑗 𝐵% ∗ 𝐵% + 𝑤𝑗 𝑃𝐴/𝐵 ∗ + + … 𝑤𝑗 𝐷𝑃𝐴 ∗ 𝐷𝑃𝐴 )} + 𝜃𝑗 ; 𝑆𝑢𝑚𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 (2)
𝐵
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(𝐶𝑆) 𝑜𝑟 (𝑇𝐶) = 𝑓(𝐼𝑗 ); 𝑇𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑠𝑓𝑒𝑟 (3)

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216 The training of the ANN model starts as it begins propagating data from the input layer and also the weights
217 are set as per the set rules for generating output with the least error. Then the trained model is checked and
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218 verified via another testing subset of data. More information about the ANN modeling approach is outside
219 the context of this research and is accessible somewhere (Alavi and Gandomi, 2011a; Khan, S. et al., 2022;
220 Sperotto et al., 2017).
PA%
W j P A%
B%
PA% 1 CSj
PA/B Sum
Response pathway
Transfer
W/B TCj
. .
. . Processing element
. .
B% 2 W jD P A
DP A
PA/B 3
. CS / TC
.
of
W/B 4
.
.
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.
.
.
. -p
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.
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DPA 10
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Input layer Hidden layer Output layer

221
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222 Figure 1. The working mechanism of artificial neural networks (feed-forward) having ten different
223 input variables executed in current research
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224 The adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is a classically attractive computational modeling
225 approach that integrates the training ability of ANNs with the logical reasoning ability of fuzzy logic.
226 ANFIS has a higher predictive capability and is a better alternative for computing complex nonlinear
227 problems with higher accuracy (Golafshani et al., 2020; Sadeghizadeh et al., 2019). Like ANNs, it learns
228 via training data using some complicated mathematical model, then projects the resultant solutions into a
229 fuzzy inference system (FIS) (Naderpour and Mirrashid, 2020). The ANFIS framework in MATLAB
230 R2020b trains the explanatory and response parameters for determining optimum projection, which is
231 analogous to the method used by ANNs. A basic FIS consists of several stages, containing an insertion of
232 inputs to help in the fuzzification process of fuzzy sets based on the activation of the linguistic rule.
233 Following that, certain rules are either formulated by researchers or drawn from accessible numerical data.
234 The preceding phase is inference, which is the mapping of fuzzy sets according to fixed set rules. Finally,
235 in the defuzzification of fuzzy sets that produced the outcome. It is right, the ANFIS method comprises of
236 five major stages: that are the insertion of data set, ANFIS formation, setting of variable, training, and
237 validation, and creation of outcomes. Furthermore, Figure 2 depicts the ANFIS architecture for the
238 several explanatory variables, at which circles, and squares represent the fixed and adaptive nodes,
239 respectively. The architecture of ANFIS is shown by the first order of the Sugeno model, which uses two
240 IF–THEN rules that are;
241 1st Rule IF (A11 is PA%) and (B11 is B%) THEN, Equation (4) gives,
{𝑓1 = 𝑝1 (𝑃𝐴%) + 𝑞1 (𝐵%) + 𝑟1 } (4)
242 2nd Rule IF (A22 is PA%) and (B22 is B%) THEN, Equation (5) gives,
{𝑓2 = 𝑝2 (𝑃𝐴%) + 𝑞2 (𝐵%) + 𝑟2 } (5)
243 Where, f1 and f2 are the response parameters (CS, TC) for the explanatory variables (PA%, B%, PA/B, W/B,
244 CSB, ρB, ρPA, ρC, WPA%, DPA) according to fuzzy rules, Ann and Bnn refer to the fuzzy sets, while pn, qn,
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245 and rn represents the shape or structure parameters computed during the training process.
246
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As presented in Figure 2, an ANFIS model comprises five layers (Jalal et al., 2021b; Jang, 1993). The
247 functions of each layer are thoroughly discussed here.
248
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1st Layer: The first layer is known as the fuzzification layer, in which the adaptive PEs provide outcomes
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249 that describe the fuzzy membership functions of the explanatory model variables and the basic fuzzy rule,
250 as shown in Equations (6-7).
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𝑂𝑖1 = 𝜇𝐴𝑖 (𝑃𝐴%); 𝑖 = 1,2, … , 𝑛 (6)

𝑂𝑖1 = 𝜇𝐵𝑖−2 (𝐵%); 𝑖 = 3,4, … , 𝑛 (7)
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251 where μ represents the weight obtained when connecting the fuzzy membership function, μAi (PA%) in
combination with μBi-2 (B%) differentiates the approach of applying a fuzzy membership function. The four
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252
253 different types of MFs used in ANFIS structure are triangular MF; Equation (8), bell-shaped MF; Equation
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254 (9), Gaussian MF; Equation (10) and trapezoidal MF; Equation (11).
1
µ𝐴𝑖 (𝑃𝐴%) =
𝑃𝐴% − 𝑐𝑖 𝑏𝑖 (8)
1+( 𝑎𝑖 )
−(𝑃𝐴%−𝑐𝑖 )2
𝜇𝐴𝑖 (𝑃𝐴%) = 𝑒 2𝑎𝑖2 (9)
𝑃𝐴% − 𝑎𝑖 𝑐𝑖 − 𝑃𝐴%
𝜇𝐴𝑖 (𝑃𝐴%) = 𝑚𝑎𝑥 {𝑚𝑖𝑛 ( , ) , 0} (10)
𝑏𝑖 − 𝑎𝑖 𝑐𝑖 − 𝑏𝑖
𝑃𝐴% − 𝑎𝑖 𝑑𝑖 − 𝑃𝐴%
𝜇𝐴𝑖 (𝑃𝐴%) = 𝑚𝑎𝑥 {𝑚𝑖𝑛 ( , , 1) , 0} (11)
𝑏𝑖 − 𝑎𝑖 𝑑𝑖 − 𝑐𝑖
255 Where, ai, bi, ci, and di are the variables that influence MFs.
256 2nd Layer: The outcome of this second layer is the firing capacity of the predetermined rules for an input
257 sequence. The nodes are fixed and undergo pure multiplication, while the resulting parameters are as
258 follows (Equation (12));
𝑂𝑖2 = 𝑤𝑖 = µ𝐴𝑖 (𝑃𝐴%) × µ𝐵𝑖 (𝐵%); 𝑖 = 1,2, … , 𝑛 (12)
259 3rd Layer: The nodes in the third layer are fixed in the same way as in the second layer so that the firing
260 capabilities of the previous layer are normalized, and the outcomes are expressed in terms of Equation
261 (13);
𝑤𝑖
𝑂𝑖3 = 𝑤
̅𝑖 = ; 𝑖 = 1,2, … , n (13)
𝑤1 + 𝑤2
262 4th Layer: Nodes in this layer are adaptive, their outcomes are represented as products of the first-order
263 polynomial and normalized firing capacity by using the first-order Sugeno model. As a result, the
264 outcome is (Equation (14));
𝑂𝑖3 = 𝑤 ̅ 𝑖 {𝑝𝑖 (PA%) + 𝑞𝑖 (𝐵%) + 𝑟𝑖 };
̅ 𝑖 𝑓𝑖 = 𝑤 i = 1, 2, … , n (14)
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265 5th Layer: In this layer a single fixed node (Ʃ) performs the summation of the weighted outcome of rules
266 extracted from the preceding layer, resulting in the outcome of the model as Equation (15).
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2
5
∑2𝑖=1 𝑤𝑖 𝑓𝑖
𝑂 = ∑𝑤
̅ 𝑖 𝑓𝑖 = ; 𝑖 = 1, 2, … , 𝑛 (15)
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𝑤1 + 𝑤2
𝑖=1
267
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It is important to note that the very first and fourth layers of the ANFIS framework are adaptive. The 3-
268 adaptable variables ai, bi, and ci, known as assumption variables, are linked to input membership functions
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269 in the first layer. Similarly, the 3-adaptable variables pi, qi, and ri, known as consequent variables are linked
270 to the first-order polynomial in the fourth layer (Naderpour and Mirrashid, 2020).
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1st Layer 2nd Layer 3rd Layer 4th Layer 5th Layer
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A11
PA%
A22
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B11
WPA%
B%
PA/B
PA%
W/B
CSB
DPA
B%
ρPA
B22
ρB
ρC
C11
W1
PA/B Π N
C22
C11 Σ CS / TC
W/B
C22
Π N
W2
.
.
W/B
PA/B
ρB
PA%
B%
CSB
ρC
WPA%
ρPA
DPA
.
.
.
I11
DPA
I22
271
272 Figure 2. The working mechanism of ANFIS (Takagi-sugeno-kang) having ten different input
273 variables and parametric operations executed in current research
274 Recently, different EA’s have been suggested with major variation in the structure’s linearity of an
275 algorithm (Ferreira, 2006; Koza and Koza, 1992; Oltean and Groşan, 2003). To propose an accurate,
276 reliable, and practical mathematical relationship for different properties of HBC like compressive strength
277 (CS) and dry thermal conductivity (TC), a relatively new variant of evolutionary algorithm (EA) known as
278 multiple expression programming (MEP) technique is the smart choice. Oltean (Oltean and Dumitrescu,
279 2002) proposed an MEP technique that can encode multiple solutions into a single computer program
280 known as a chromosome. MEP is used by various researchers to predict the degree of consolidation of soils
281 (Sharifi et al., 2020), the tangent elastic modulus of high and normal strength concrete (Gandomi et al.,
282 2015), deformation modulus of soil (Alavi et al., 2012), mechanical properties like compressive strength,
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283 elastic modulus, and tensile strength of waste foundry sand concrete (Iqbal, M.F. et al., 2021a), and
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284 compressive strength of geopolymer concrete (Chu et al., 2021). MEP modeling result can be described as
285 a linear string of commands consisting of a combination of variables (terminals) or mathematical operations
286
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(functions). The phases involved in implementing an MEP simulation are presented in Figure 3. The
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287 evolution in MEP based modeling involves (i) the creation of a randomized population of chromosomes,
288 (ii) the selection of two parents via binary tournament process and fusing with a fixed cross-over
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289 probability, (iii) the generation of two offspring by recombining the selected parents, (iv) the mutation of
the offspring, and (v) the replacement of the worst individuals in the population with the best. The explained
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290
291 process is cyclic recurred till the achievement of the convergence (Alavi et al., 2010; Oltean and Groşan,
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292 2003).
293 The MEP has overcome the limitations of other EA’s like GP and GEP. In GP, just the tree cross-over
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294 genetic operator is used, leading to the development of a large population of parse trees, which increases
295 computation time and needs considerable memory (Koza and Koza, 1992). Also, because GP has a non-
296 linear structure that functions like a genotype and phenotype which make it is difficult in providing a simple
297 and easy mathematical representation for the required response parameter (Ferreira, 2006). The addition of
298 linear variants allows MEP to differentiate between an individual's genotype and phenotype (Gandomi et
299 al., 2015). The rate of success of GEP increases with the increase in genes on each chromosome up to a
300 certain point. Beyond that point, overfitting appears to happen in the response parameter, which limits the
301 model's usefulness in the building industry (Azim et al., 2020b; Iqbal et al., 2020). On the other side, MEP
302 is especially useful when the complexity of the response or target equation is undetermined, which is
303 obvious in material engineering-related problems where a slight adjustment in a concrete mix
304 proportion can greatly affect the strength (Oltean and Grosan, 2003). In MEP, because of the linearity of
305 chromosomes and the encoding of several solutions in a single chromosome, the algorithm search in a larger
306 space to forecast the outcome (Alavi and Gandomi, 2011b; Arabshahi et al., 2020; Chu et al., 2021; Iqbal,
307 M.F. et al., 2021a).
308 In the current research, the ANN, ANFIS, and MEP techniques are used for the formulation of compressive
309 strength (CS) and dry thermal conductivity (TC) of bio-composites. To ensure accuracy and efficacy, the
310 modeling is combined with extensive statistical and parametric analysis. The suggested MEP modeling
311 along with optimization by neural networks will give a path for correctly modeling analogous complex
312 engineering problems.
Randomized Development of Selection of Two Parents

Start
Population Chromosomes (Binary Tournament Process)
Recombination
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Production of Off-Springs
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Evaluation of Fitness
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No Terminate?
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Yes
End
313
314 Figure 3. The working structure of the MEP based evolutionary algorithm
315 3. Methodology
316 3.1 Preparation of data catalog
317 For the development of ANN, ANFIS, and MEP models, a comprehensive database consists of 159
318 Compressive strength (CS) (MPa) and 86 dry thermal conductivity (TC) (Wm-1K-1) results of bio-
319 composites were collected from the previous literature (Ahmad et al., 2021), having ten most prominent
320 explanatory variables for each response under mix-proportion of bio-composites i.e., percentage of plant
321 aggregate by weight (PA%), percentage of water absorption by weight (W PA%), percentage of binder by
322 weight (B%), plant aggregate to binder ratio (PA/B), water content to binder ratio (W/B), compressive
323 strength of binder (CSB) (MPa), the density of cementitious binder (ρB) (kg/m3), the density of plant
324 aggregate (ρPA) (kg/m3), dry density of composite (ρC) (kg/m3), and diameter of plant aggregate (DPA)
325 (mm). The whole database is provided in Appendix as Table S3.
326 The most important and frequently used indicator in the development of AI models is Pearson’s correlation
327 coefficient (r) to evaluate the relationship between inputs and response (Puth et al., 2014). Therefore,
328 Pearson’s correlation matrix (Pearson, 1900) is developed for each data set, to interpret the inter-
329 dependency and multi-collinearity between ten explanatory variables (inputs) and two response parameters
330 (outputs) i.e., CS and TC as shown in Table 2 and Table 3 respectively. The Pearson’s correlation matrix
331 is a symmetrical square matrix of dimensions J × J having (ab) th entities. The Pearson’s correlation
332 coefficients (rab) can be defined as the correlation between the (a)th and (b)th parameters. The main diagonal
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333 entities indicate the correlation coefficient of parameters with each other, that must be equal to 1 (Gravier
334 et al., 2008). The r varies between -1 and 1, with 0 indicating no correlation and -1 and +1 represents a
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335 strong positive and strong negative correlation between parameters, respectively. The bottom row of Table
336
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2 and Table 3 shows the correlation between independent (PA%, B%, PA/B, W/B, CSB, ρB, ρPA, ρC, WPA%,
DPA) and dependent (CS and TS) parameters. The inputs slightly influencing CS are PA%, and ρB with r
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337
338 equal to -0.130 and 0.183, respectively, while in the case of TC are B%, ρB, and DPA with r equaling 0.120,
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339 0.040, and 0.080, respectively. Both the CS and TC are greatly influenced by ρC. Their r values are equals
340 to 0.746 and 0.738, respectively. Overall, a significant correlation exists between explanatory variables and
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341 response parameters and can be seen in both matrices (Table 2 and Table 3). It is noteworthy to mention
342 that; the employment of AI techniques carries a disadvantage of multi-collinearity (Azim et al., 2021; Iqbal,
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343 M. et al., 2021a). Therefore, it is suggested that the r between two independent variables (inputs) must be
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344 less than 0.8 (Jalal et al., 2021a; Smith, 1986). As shown in Table 2 and Table 3, in both matrices the
345 values of r between each independent variable, either negative or positive fall within the given limit. Thus,
346 there is no chance of multi-collinearity to occur during the modeling of both CS and TC.
347 Table 2. Pearson correlation matrix for explanatory variables and compressive strength (CS) as
348 response parameter
Parameters PA% B% PA/B W/B CSB ρB ρPA WPA% DPA ρC CS
PA% 1
B% .023 1
PA/B .682 -.638 1
W/B -.321 -.787 .417 1 Symmetry
CSB .428 .706 -.229 -.798 1
ρB .369 .752 -.268 -.784 .770 1
ρPA .163 -.123 .136 .040 -.138 .046 1
WPA% .103 -.243 .205 .140 -.091 -.062 -.124 1
DPA .318 .323 .036 -.314 .474 .244 -.241 -.036 1
ρC .044 .677 -.505 -.757 .729 .647 -.013 -.237 .356 1
CS -.130 .787 -.480 -.567 .608 .183 -.227 -.304 .307 .746 1
349 Table 3. Pearson correlation matrix for explanatory variables and thermal conductivity (TC) as
350 response parameter
Parameters PA% B% PA/B W/B CSB ρB ρPA WPA% DPA ρC TC
PA% 1
B% -.119 1
PA/B .710 -.690 1
W/B -.260 -.728 .413 1 Symmetry
CSB .318 .737 -.324 -.713 1
ρB .284 .698 -.331 -.789 .787 1
ρPA .110 -.140 .120 .123 -.104 -.089 1
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WPA% .076 -.293 .204 .200 -.180 -.157 -.157 1
DPA .193 .115 .061 -.136 .172 .025 -.143 -.030 1
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ρC -.206 .741 -.645 -.715 .687 .622 .004 -.318 .171 1
TC -.666 .120 -.496 -.481 .454 .040 -.152 -.308 .080 .738 1
351
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Furthermore, for presenting the data in a more significant way, the detailed descriptive statistical analysis
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352 of each response parameter and explanatory variables is shown in Table 4. The distribution of explanatory
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353 variables leads to the generalized model development (Iqbal, M.F. et al., 2021a). The mean, median, and
354 mode are used to shows the center of the data with extreme statistics depicted through maximum and
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355 minimum values. The spread of the data is presented in terms of standard deviation (SD). The lower value
356 of SD shows that several entities are closer to the mean value. While larger SD depicts that the entities are
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357 more speeded over their range, The Skewness and Kurtosis are used to interpret the symmetry and shape
358 (peakedness and flatness) of data distribution, respectively, concerning normal probability distribution.
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359 Both, of these statistics, can be zero, negative, positive, or may be undefined (Sharma and Ojha, 2020). The
360 positive and negative values of skewness show that the tail of the probability distribution curve is extended
361 to the right and left of the curve, respectively, while exactly zero skewness value shows the asymmetry
362 (Cain et al., 2017). The negative kurtosis (platy-kurtic) means that the curve of the data is flatter than the
363 normal distribution curve and more peaked if kurtosis is positive (leptokurtic), while Exactly zero value of
364 kurtosis (Meso-Kurtic) shows the normal distribution of data with a medium peak (Benson, 1993; Brown
365 and Greene, 2006). Overall, the acceptable and appropriate range of skewness and kurtosis is -3 to +3 and
366 -10 to +10 (Brown and Greene, 2006; Jalal et al., 2021a). As shown in Table 4, the skewness and kurtosis
367 of all the selected inputs and outputs lie in the prescribed limit, replicating the better distribution of data.
368 Table 4. Descriptive statistical analysis of data sets used for modeling compressive strength (CS) and dry thermal conductivity (TC) of
369 bio-composites using MEP, ANN, and ANFIS
CS data set TC data set
Parameters
Min. Max. M3 M2 M3 SD Skew. Kurt. Min. Max. M1 M2 M3 SD Skew. Kurt.
Explanatory / Input
1. Percentage of plant
4.45 39.22 17.95 16.96 11.31 6.15 0.77 2.20 4.45 39.22 16.63 16.00 16.00 4.97 1.10 4.91
aggregate (PA%)
2. Percentage of binder
22.62 100 46.95 44.19 22.62 16.87 0.76 0.19 22.62 85.77 42.13 34.84 34.04 12.96 1.32 1.49
(B%),
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3. Plant aggregate to
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0.05 1 0.43 0.44 0.50 0.19 1.10 3.21 0.05 1.02 0.42 0.47 0.47 0.14 0.58 5.80
binder ratio (PA/B)
4. Water to binder ratio
0.1 2.92 0.97 0.69 1.50 0.74 1.09 0.96 0.10 2.92 1.13 1.40 1.47 0.60 0.46 1.05
r
(W/B)
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5. Compressive strength
5 93.5 48.28 45.1 10.00 36.31 0.06 -1.81 5.00 93.5 31.49 10 10.00 32.67 1.02 -0.70
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of binder (CSB) (MPa)
6. Density of binder (ρB)
650 3000 1894.13 2500 650 960.52 -0.37 -1.67 610 3000 1459.61 650 650 967.89 0.56 -1.51
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(kg/m3)
7. Density of plant
70 199.4 115.83 121.6 123 23.57 0.97 4.14 75.20 199.4 121.52 123 123.00 21.55 1.08 4.20
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aggregate (ρPA) (kg/m3)
8. Percentage of water
62.9 224 147.42 147.42 147.42 30.97 -0.41 1.86 62.90 224 145.49 144.63 144.63 22.77 -0.30 5.65
absorption (WPA%)
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9. Diameter of plant
0.1 12.5 9.00 9 9 2.72 -1.07 2.07 0.10 12.5 7.44 7.44 7.44 2.46 0.31 1.00
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aggregate (DPA) (mm)
10. Dry density of
250 1853.6 734.75 652.5 330 346.33 1.11 0.99 250.00 1853.6 610.82 480 330.00 304.53 1.70 2.88
composite (ρC) (kg/m3)
Response / Output
CS (MPa) and TC (Wm-1K-
1 0.05 1.00 0.17 0.13 0.12 0.14 2.53 5.46 0.06 28.37 2.00 0.55 0.45 4.04 2.90 9.72
)
370 CS: Compressive strength; TC: Dry thermal conductivity; Min.: Minimum value; Max.: Maximum value; The M 1, M2, and M3 represent average
371 values in terms of mean, median, and mode respectively; SD: standard deviation; Skew.: Skewness; Kurt.: Kurtosis
372 3.2 Structure of ANN, ANFIS, and GEP model
373 The first step in creating the applicable model is to select the significantly influencing explanatory variables.
374 As discussed in detail in the previous section, the CS and TC were found to be dependent on the following
375 variables (Equation (16)):
𝑃𝐴 𝑊
𝐶𝑆 (𝑀𝑃𝑎) 𝑜𝑟 𝑇𝐶 (𝑊𝑚−1 𝐾 −1 ) = 𝑓 (𝑃𝐴%, 𝐵%, , , 𝐶𝑆𝐵 , 𝜌𝐵 , 𝜌𝑃𝐴 , 𝜌𝐶 , 𝑊𝑃𝐴 % 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐷𝑃𝐴 ) (16)
𝐵 𝐵
376 Where, PA%: percentage of plant aggregate by weight, B%: percentage of binder by weight, PA/B: plant
377 aggregate to binder ratio, W/B: water content to binder ratio, CSB (MPa): compressive strength of binder,
378 ρB (kg/m3): density of cementitious binder, ρPA (kg/m3): density of plant aggregate, WPA%: water absorption
379 of plant aggregate, ρC (kg/m3): dry density of composite and DPA (mm): diameter of plant aggregate.
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380 Both the ANN and ANFIS models were developed in the MATLAB software via the neural network and
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381 fuzzy logic toolboxes, respectively. For training the models, 111 and 60 experimental data points (records)
382 were used with randomized distributions, the other 48 and 26 (i.e., 30%) records were kept separate to
383
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check the accuracy and sweeping generalization capacity of the trained network for predicting the CS and
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384 TC, respectively (Golafshani et al., 2021; Shahmansouri et al., 2021). The training accuracy and processing
385 time needed to train the models are important to evaluate the performance of AI models (Naderpour and
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386 Mirrashid, 2020). In this research, for ANN modeling, the input layer comprised of ten input nodes, one for
387 each of the model inputs, expressing the PA%, B%, PA/B, W/B, CSB, ρB, ρPA, ρC, WPA%, and DPA and the
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388 output layer comprised of CS and TC. After the random division of data, the number of hidden neurons was
389 set to 10 using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm and the network type was selected as feed-forward
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390 back-propagation. Furthermore, trial and error methods were acquired, to achieve the best performance
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391 output in the specified number of hidden layers (Shahmansouri et al., 2021). The setting of hyper-
392 parameters for training the ANN model in this research is presented in Table 5.
393 Table 5. Hyper-parameters settings and structure of ANN algorithm

Setting
Artificial intelligence
Hyper-parameters CS data set (159 data- TC data set (86 data-
technique
points) points)
Type of network Feedforward backpropagation
Division of data Randomly
Hidden neurons 10
The algorithm used for
Levenberg-Marquardt
training
ANN
Transfer-function (hidden
TRANSIG
layer)
Transfer-function (output
PURELIN
layer)
Non-linear parameters 22
Epochs 50
Learning rate 0.01
394 Unlike ANNs, ANFIS limits just one response parameter and was controlled explicitly with the same set of
395 explanatory variables mentioned for both ANN and ANFIS models. To achieve optimized results, the same
396 training and testing sets were introduced to ANFIS modeling. First of all, a FIS was developed primarily
397 using subtractive clustering (sub-cluster) due to a large number of experimental records in the collected
398 database, and a hybrid optimization approach (back-propagation and least square approach) was
399 employed to train the FIS by structuring triangular membership function i.e., trimf (Jalal et al., 2020).
400 Furthermore, Venkatesh and Bind (2020), also recommend the use of the grid portioning approach when
401 the number of explanatory variables is less than or equal to six. The setting of hyper-parameters for ANFIS
402 modeling is presented in Table 6.
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403 Table 6. Hyper-parameters settings and structure of ANFIS algorithm
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Setting
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Hyper-parameters CS data set (159 data- TC data set (86 data-
technique
points) points)
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Linear parameters 22 121
Non-linear parameters 40 220
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Fuzzy rules 2 11
MFs 2 11
Nodes 57 225
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Epochs 65
ANFIS
Error goal 0
Type of MF Trimf
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Structure of fuzzy Sugeno

Type of FIS Sub-clustering
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Optimization technique Backpropagation and least square

Type of output function Linear
404 For MEP modeling, the software named MEPX version 2021.5.18.0 was used (Oltean and Dumitrescu,
405 2002). As discussed earlier, MEP is a renowned linear version of genetic programming series and can
406 deliver a numerical equation from the established prediction model. It can generate a single model from
407 enormous amounts of diverse data, significantly enhancing the quality, efficacy, and performance of the
408 model development process and produce code in a particular programming language i.e., C++ (Jalal et al.,
409 2021a). The hyper-parameters tuning in the MEP algorithm was determined based on past literature
410 suggestions and several initial runs (trial and error) (Chu et al., 2021; Iqbal, M.F. et al., 2021a). The trial-
411 and-error method was used in this research to assess the initial optimal combination of MEP hyper-
412 parameters, and the effect of specific hyper-parameters on the prediction accuracy of MEP was observed.
413 At last, the optimized combination of the MEP hyper-parameters was used in the development of the
414 proposed model to obtain simple mathematical equations for predicting the CS and TC of HBC. The genes
415 in MEP are varying substrings that keep the chromosomal size constant and similar to the set of genes on
416 each chromosome. Each gene records a function or a terminal symbol, but a gene encoding
417 function includes connections to the function parameters. The function arguments often have lower indices
418 values than the address of the relevant function on that specific chromosome (Oltean and Grosan, 2003).
419 Increasing the number of a subpopulation, subpopulation size, and code length increase the complexity of
420 the MEP model and, as a result, the size of the operating program (Jalal et al., 2021a). Besides that, different
421 established models are strongly reliant on the mentioned parameters, increasing these hyper-parameters,
422 also increases the coefficient of regression and decreases the error in the developed model (Jalal et al.,
423 2021a). The best MEP model with enhanced performance was noted for both CS and TC with a number of
424 a subpopulation, subpopulation size, and code length equals 10, 250, and 50 respectively. The details of
425 hyper-parameters used in the optimized MEP algorithm to formulate CS and TC are listed in Table 7.
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426 Table 7. Hyper-parameters settings and structure of MEP algorithm
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Setting
Hyper-parameters
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technique CS data set (159 data- TC data set (86 data-
points) points)
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Problem type Regression
Operators +, −, ×, ÷, power, sqrt
Number of sub-population 10
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Sub-population size 250

Code length 50
Crossover probability 0.9
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MEP
Mutation probability 0.01
Crossover type Uniform
ur
Tournament size 2
Operators probability 0.5
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Variables probability 0.5

Number of generations 1000
427 3.3 Statistical performance measures for evaluation of models
428 The statistical standard metrics were used to evaluate the statistical performance of the projected ANN,
429 ANFIS, and GEP models in both stages (the training, and testing), such as root squared error (RSE), mean
430 absolute error (MAE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), root mean square logarithmic error (RMSLE), root
431 mean square error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (R) and coefficient of determination (R 2) (Alade et al.,
432 2019b; Farooq et al., 2021; Mohammadzadeh et al., 2019). In parallel, for each projected model, a
433 performance index (PI) was also determined, which is primarily governed by R and RRMSE (Gandomi and
434 Roke, 2015). The aforementioned statistical performance metrics are stated in the following Equations
435 (17-23).
∑𝑛𝑘=1(𝑒𝑘 − 𝑒̅𝑘 )(𝑝𝑘 − 𝑝̅𝑘 )
𝑅= (17)
√∑𝑛𝑘=1(𝑒𝑘 − 𝑒̅𝑘 )2 ∑𝑛𝑘=1(𝑝𝑘 − 𝑝̅𝑘 )2
∑𝑛𝑘=1(𝑒𝑘 − 𝑝𝑘 )2
𝑁𝑆𝐸 = 1 − (18)
∑𝑛𝑘=1(𝑒𝑘 − 𝑒𝑘 )2
∑𝑛𝑘=1(𝑝𝑘 − 𝑒𝑘 )2
𝑅𝑆𝐸 = (19)
∑𝑛𝑘=1(𝑒̅ − 𝑒𝑘 )2
𝑛
1
𝑅𝑀𝑆𝐿𝐸 = √ ∑[𝑙𝑜𝑔(𝑝𝑘 + 1) − 𝑙𝑜𝑔(𝑒𝑘 + 1)]2 (20)
𝑛
𝑘=1
∑𝑛𝑘=1|𝑒𝑘 − 𝑝𝑘 |
𝑀𝐴𝐸 = (21)
𝑛
of
∑𝑛 (𝑒𝑘 − 𝑝𝑘 )2
ro
𝑅𝑀𝑆𝐸 = √ 𝑘=1 (22)
𝑛
(
|𝑒̅ |
-p
1 √∑𝑛𝑘=1(𝑒𝑘 − 𝑝𝑘 )2
𝑛 )
(23)
re
𝑃𝐼 =
(1 + 𝑅)
lP
th
436 Where ek and pk represent k experimental and predicted outcomes, respectively; e̅k and p
̅ k represent the
437 mean values of the experimental and predicted outcomes, respectively, and n is the total number of
na
438 experimental records. The efficacy of the R statistical metric is used to assess the correlation between
439 experimental and model-predicted outcomes. When R is greater than 0.8, it defines a strong and firm
ur
440 correlation between the experimental and model-predicted outcome (Azim et al., 2020a). But R is
Jo
441 insensitive to the division and multiplication of outcomes (Iqbal et al., 2020). So, R2 was also used because
442 of its unbiased estimation as well as its comparatively better efficacy and performance. R2 values equal to
443 one and also close to each other indicate that the maximum variation among the explanatory variables is
444 captured (Alavi et al., 2013; Zhang et al., 2020). For a good efficacy of the model, the NSE must be greater
445 than 0.65 (Jalal et al., 2021a). Among the aforementioned statistical metrics, the RMSE is prominent since
446 larger error values are addressed more effectively than smaller error values and closer to zero indicates that
447 error in the model prediction is minimum (Alade et al., 2019a). However, in some situations, it does not
448 ensure the best model performance. Consequently, MAE was also measured, which is extremely useful in
449 the vicinity of continuous and smooth data and gives high weightage to lower error values (Shahin, 2015b).
450 In short, lower error statistical measures (MAE, RMSE, RSE, and RMSLE), and higher NSE and correlation
451 statistical measures (R and R2) shows better and improved models’ performance. Moreover, Gandomi and
452 Roke (2015) recommended a PI statistical measure that varies between zero and infinity, with a value nearer
453 to zero indicates better model performance. The author categorizes the models as good having PI less than
454 or equal to 0.2. And can be considered satisfactory with PI less than 0.3.
455 Owing to excessive learning and training of the experimental records, a variety of machine learning models
456 appear to overfit and results in smaller training error values and higher testing error values
457 (Emamgholizadeh et al., 2017). Therefore, an objective function (OF) was measured and minimized, to
458 choose the best prediction models that overcome the overfitting problem (Gandomi and Roke, 2015). The
459 OF is expressed in Equation (24).
𝑛𝑡𝑟 − 𝑛𝑡𝑠𝑡 𝑛𝑡𝑠𝑡

𝑂𝐹 = ( ) 𝑃𝐼𝑡𝑟 + 2 ( ) 𝑃𝐼𝑡𝑠𝑡 (24)
𝑛 𝑛
460 where the subscript ntr and ntst indicate the training and testing experimental records respectively. While n
of
461 indicates the number of total experimental records. A smaller OF nearly equaling zero reflects the best
ro
462 prediction models, as it includes the impact of R, relative root means squared error, and relative percentage
463 of total experimental records. In addition, this research also employs the external validation measures
464
-p
recommended in previous technical literature (Azim et al., 2020a; Golbraikh and Tropsha, 2002; Roy and
re
465 Roy, 2008). The details of this statistical measure are provided in Table 8. 𝑘′ or 𝑘 is the slope of regression
line (between actual vs estimated or estimated vs actual) (Golbraikh and Tropsha, 2002). 𝑅𝑜′2 or 𝑅02 is the
lP
466
467 coefficient of determination (between actual vs estimated or estimated vs actual). 𝑅𝑥 is the absolute
na
468 difference between 𝑅𝑜′2 and 𝑅02 and must be lesser than 0.3 (Golbraikh et al., 2003), with 𝑅𝑚 must be
469 greater than 0.5 (Roy and Roy, 2008). The test set subjected to the mentioned measures must satisfy the
ur
470 acceptable criteria.

Jo
471 Table 8. Acceptable ranges of external validation measures recommended in the literature
Expression Acceptable criteria Reference

∑𝑛𝑘=1(𝑒𝑘 × 𝑝𝑘 ) (Golbraikh and
𝑘= 0.85 < k < 1.15
𝑒𝑘2 Tropsha, 2002)
∑𝑛𝑘=1(𝑒𝑘 × 𝑝𝑘 ) (Golbraikh and
𝑘′ = 0.85 < k′ < 1.15
𝑝𝑘2 Tropsha, 2002)
(Roy and Roy,
𝑅𝑚 = 𝑅 2 × (1 − √|𝑅 2 − 𝑅02 |) Rm > 0.5
2008)
(Golbraikh et
𝑅𝑥 = |𝑅𝑜2 − 𝑅𝑜′2 | Rx < 0.3
al., 2003)
Where;
∑𝑛𝑘=1(𝑝𝑘 − 𝑒𝑘𝑜 )2
𝑅𝑜2 = 1 − 2 ; 𝑒𝑘𝑜 = 𝑘 × 𝑝𝑘
∑𝑛𝑘=1 (𝑝𝑘 − 𝑝𝑘𝑜 ) 𝑅𝑜2 ≅ 1
∑𝑛𝑘=1(𝑒𝑘 − 𝑝𝑘𝑜 )2
𝑅𝑜′2 = 1 − 2 ; 𝑝𝑘𝑜 = 𝑘′ × 𝑒𝑘 𝑅𝑜′2 ≅ 1
∑𝑛𝑘=1 (𝑒𝑘 − 𝑒𝑘𝑜 )
472 4. Results and discussion

473 4.1 Regression plots between actual and predicted results of ANN, ANFIS, and MEP models
474 Figure 4(a)-4(f) graphically shows the cross (regression) plots between actual (experimental) and model
475 (predicted) results of CS and TC of bio-composite concrete with ANN, ANFIS, and MEP, respectively. As,
476 evident from the values of R, R2, and NSE and can be seen that, all the prediction models correctly
477 encompass the impact of all input variables considered to estimate the CS and TC. The closeness of the
478 points near the regression shows the better performance of all the developed models (Golafshani et al.,
of
479 2020; Landeras et al., 2012). For both, the CS and TC, the R, R2, and NSE for ANN, ANFIS, and MEP are
ro
480 above 0.90, in the training as well as testing set. In accordance with R and R2 for the overall data set, both
481 CS and TC models follow the trend: ANFIS > MEP > ANN. The outburst performance of ANFIS is
482
-p
attributable to the combination of the training ability of neural networks and the logical reasoning ability
re
483 of fuzzy logic. The R2 on the overall dataset for ANFIS, MEP, and ANN models of CS is around 98%,
484 96%, and 93% respectively, and around 99%, 95%, and 92% respectively, for TC. The higher the R and R2,
lP
485 the stronger the correlation between input variables will be (Jalal et al., 2021a). In addition, between all the
486 predictive models, the MEP models do better than ANFIS and ANN in the case of both CS and TC, in terms
na
487 of closeness of the R, R2, and NSE of training and testing set. Moreover, in all models, a relatively lesser
488
ur
amount of residual variance in comparison with the measured (actual) data variance is observed, as evidence
489 by the closeness of the NSE to 1 (Jalal et al., 2021b; Shah et al., 2020). For CS and TC, the overall NSE of
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490 ANFIS models are 0.9856 and 0.9994, respectively (approximately equaling 1). While for ANN predictive
491 CS and TC models, the overall NSE is lower than ANFIS and MEP predictive models i.e., 0.9391 and
492 0.9054, respectively. In short, considering the three statistical measures (R, R2, and NSE), in both cases (CS
493 and TC), the ANFIS models gives better performance followed by MEP and ANN.
30 1.2
RTrain 0.9749 R2Train 0.9505 NSETrain 0.9481 RTrain 0.9546 R2Train 0.9113 NSETrain 0.8738
RTest 0.9599 R2Test 0.9214 NSETest 0.8964 RTest 0.9956 R2Test 0.9911 NSETest 0.9910
ROverall 0.9691 R2Overall 0.9391 NSEOverall 0.9391 ROverall 0.9601 R2Overall 0.9219 NSEOverall 0.9054
25 1
ANN predicted TC (Wm-1k-1)

ANN predicted CS (MPa)
20 0.8
15 0.6
10 0.4
ANN Training ANN Training
5 ANN Testing 0.2 ANN Testing
ANN Training ANN Training
ANN Testing ANN Testing
0 0
(a) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 (b) 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2
Actual CS (MPa) Actual TC (Wm-1k-1)
30 1.2
of
25 1
ANFIS predicted TC (Wm-1k-1)
ro
ANFIS predicted CS (MPa)
20 0.8
15
-p 0.6
re
10 0.4
ANFIS Training ANFIS Training
lP
5 ANFIS Testing 0.2 ANFIS Testing

ANFIS Training ANFIS Training
ANFIS Testing ANFIS Testing
0 0
na
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2

(c) (d)
30 1.2
ur
25 1
MEP predicted TC (Wm-1k-1)
MEP predicted CS (MPa)
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20 0.8
15 0.6
10 0.4
MEP Training MEP Training
5 MEP Testing 0.2 MEP Testing
MEP Training MEP Training
MEP Testing MEP Testing
0 0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2
(e) (f)
494
495 Figure 4. Regression plots between actual and predicted outcomes of compressive strength (CS) and
496 dry thermal conductivity (TC) of bio-composites with (a, b) artificial neural network (ANN), (c, d)
497 adaptive neuro-interface system (ANFIS), and (e, f) multi-expression programming (MEP),
498 respectively.
499 4.2 New prediction Equations using MEP

500 As discussed earlier, MEP is a notable linear form of genetic programming (Chu et al., 2021; Oltean and
501 Grosan, 2003). Because the MEP can generate a mathematical equation from the established prediction
502 model (Chu et al., 2021; Fallahpour et al., 2017; Iqbal, M.F. et al., 2021a), therefore, the formula for the
503 CS and TC was provided with the previously finalized 159 and 86 experimental records, respectively in
504 MEPX version 2021.5.18.0 (Fallahpour et al., 2017; Oltean and Groşan, 2003). The best MEP model with
505 enhanced performance was noted for both CS and TC with a number of a subpopulation, subpopulation
506 size, and code length equals to 10, 250, and 50 respectively and operators (function set) as +, −, ×, ÷, power,
507 and square root. Using the aforementioned setting the explicit equation for CS (See Equation (25)) and TC
508 (See Equation (26)) were extracted from the simplified form of C++ code delivered right after completion
509 of 1000 generations given in Table S1 and S2 respectively.
of
(𝜌𝑃𝐴 +𝑒−𝑑)×𝑓 ℎ×𝐶𝑆𝐵
𝐶𝑆 (𝑀𝑃𝑎) = (𝑊 + + 𝑖 × (𝜌𝑃𝐴 + 𝑒 − 𝑑– 𝑑⁄𝐷 )) + (25)
⁄𝐵×(𝐵%−𝑐−𝜌𝑃𝐴 −𝑎)−𝑏 𝑓×𝐵%×(𝜌𝑃𝐴 −𝐵%+𝑐) 𝑃𝐴
ro
(𝑖 × (𝜌𝑃𝐴 + 𝑎))
-p
Where;
𝑎 = 𝑃𝐴⁄𝐵 + 𝐵% ; 𝑏 = 𝐷𝑃𝐴 + 𝑊⁄𝐵 ; 𝑐 = 𝑎 × 𝑃𝐴⁄𝐵 ; 𝑑 = 𝜌𝑐 + 𝐷𝑃𝐴 ; 𝑒 = 𝑎 × √𝑎 ; 𝑓 =
re
𝜌𝑃𝐴 𝑓
; 𝑔 = 𝑊𝑃𝐴 − (𝑐 − 𝑏); ℎ = 𝑐 − 𝑏 and 𝑖 =
𝜌𝑃𝐴 +𝑎 ℎ×𝑔
lP
𝑎 𝑃𝐴%
𝑇𝐶 (𝑊𝑚−1 𝐾 −1 ) = ( × (𝜌𝑐 – 𝑑 + – 𝑐)) +
(𝑊⁄𝐵+𝜌𝑃𝐴 )×(𝑎2 –(((2×𝑏)+𝑎)–𝑑))–((2×𝑏)+𝑎) 𝑏 (26)
na
𝑃𝐴
(𝑐 × 𝐵
)
ur
Where;
√𝑊𝑃𝐴 % 𝑎 2 ×𝑊𝑃𝐴 %
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𝑎 = √𝑃𝐴% × 𝑊𝑃𝐴 % ; 𝑏 = 𝐶𝑆𝐵 − 𝑊𝑃𝐴 %; 𝑐 = 𝜌𝑃𝐴

; and 𝑑 = 𝜌
𝑃𝐴 ×(𝜌𝑃𝐴 −𝑎)
510
511 4.3 Performance assessment of developed models using statistical measures
512 Frank and Todeschini (1994) recommended that for the development of effective predictive machine
513 learning models, the ratio between the number of records in the data set and the number of inputs should
514 be at least 5 (Gandomi et al., 2015; Gholampour et al., 2017). In the current research, the value of this ratio
515 is 159/8=19.88 and 86/7=12.29 for CS and TC prediction, respectively, which are considerably greater and
516 surpass the recommended condition. The evaluation of models based on R, R2, and NSE is not sufficient to
517 reveal the optimal functioning. Therefore, all the developed models were also subjected to other statistical
518 measures (MAE, RMSE, RSE, RMSLE, PI, and OF) to investigate the robustness. Thus, to evaluate and
519 compare the efficacy of the models, the ultimate values of statistical performance measures of both datasets
520 partitioned (training and testing) for CS and TC are presented in Table 9.
521 Table 9. Overview of statistical performance measures of training and testing set for the ANN,
522 ANFIS, and MEP models developed for CS and TC prediction
Proposed models Subset R R2 NSE MAE RMSE RSE RMSLE PI OF

Training 0.9749 0.9505 0.9481 0.5332 0.9968 0.0519 0.01349 0.2523
ANN 0.2506
Testing 0.9599 0.9214 0.8963 0.4985 0.9840 0.1037 0.01049 0.2496
Training 0.9946 0.9893 0.9891 0.2579 0.4568 0.0109 0.00076 0.1145
CS ANFIS 0.1269
Testing 0.9846 0.9694 0.9689 0.2466 0.5390 0.0311 0.00217 0.1350
Training 0.9860 0.9722 0.9711 0.4895 0.7435 0.0289 0.00322 0.1871
MEP 0.1653
Testing 0.9811 0.9626 0.9612 0.3575 0.6017 0.0388 0.00444 0.1510
Training 0.9546 0.9113 0.8738 0.0125 0.0513 0.1262 0.00001 0.1572
ANN 0.0835
Testing 0.9956 0.9911 0.9910 0.0077 0.0126 0.0090 0.00058 0.0354
Training 0.9996 0.9992 0.9992 0.0014 0.0040 0.0008 0.00000 0.0121
of
TC ANFIS 0.0078
Testing 0.9999 0.9998 0.9998 0.0012 0.0018 0.0002 0.00006 0.0051
Training 0.9778 0.9560 0.9553 0.0245 0.0305 0.0447 0.00013 0.0924
ro
MEP 0.0923
Testing 0.9752 0.9510 0.9409 0.0260 0.0325 0.1495 0.00026 0.0922
-p
523 4.3.1 ANN developed models
524 The performance-based statistical error measures (MAE, RMSE, RSE, RMSLE) for the training and testing
re
525 stage of ANN-based models of CS and TC are provided in Table 9. It can be seen that the values of these
lP
526 measures in each stage are minimal in each stage (training and testing) and approaches to 0. The MAE
527 depicts the magnitude of error values and gives higher weightage to lower error values and is equal to
na
528 0.5332 and 0.4985 for the training and testing stage, respectively of the ANN-CS model. For the ANN-TC
529 model, these values are 0.0125 and 0.0077 respectively. Consequently, the RMSE gives higher weightage
ur
530 to higher error values, i.e., 0.9968 and 0.9840 for training and testing stage respectively for ANN-CS model
531 and 0.0513 and 0.0126, for the ANN-TC model. It is clear the MAE < RMSE in both stages for ANN-based
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532 CS and TC models (Eskandari-Naddaf and Kazemi, 2017; Iqbal, M.F. et al., 2021a), shows the good
533 performance of the models. The RSE and RMSLE for the training and testing stage are nearly equal to 0
534 for the ANN-CS model. It is worth noting that for the ANN-TC model, the RMSLE is exactly 0 up to four
535 significant digits in both the training and testing stage. Also, the variation of actual and predicted results
536 and their error range for ANN-CS and ANN-TC models are presented in Figure 5(a)-(d). The maximum
537 and minimum absolute errors are 5.245 and 0.0012 MPa, respectively, for CS and 0.099 and 1.98 x 10-5
538 Wm-1k-1, respectively for TC. Moreover, Figure 5(b) shows the error histograms for CS predicted values,
539 presenting that around 83% of the predicted results fall in the range between -0.5 and 0.5 MPa for the
540 utilized widespread data. On the other hand, around 96% of the predicted TC results fall in the error range
541 between -0.025 and 0.025 Wm-1k-1. It shows that the error is converged nearer to zero representing a quite
542 good performance of ANN-based models (Azimi-Pour and Eskandari-Naddaf, 2018).
Actual CS ANN predicted CS Absolute error 70
30 63 62
M AETrain 0.5332 RM SETrain 0.9968 RSETrain 0.0519
60
M AETest 0.4985 RM SETest 0.9840 RSETest 0.1037
Compressive strength (MPa)
25
50
70% Training 30% Testing
20
Frequency
40
15
30
10 20
10 5 7
5 4 3 3 3 3
2 0 1 0 1 2
0
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 -3.5 -3 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
(a) Record number (b) Error range of ANN predicted CS (MPa)
Actual TC ANN predicted TC Absolute error 50
1.2
Dry thermal conductivity (Wm-1 K-1 )

40 40
1.0 M AETest 0.0077 RM SETest 0.0126 RSETest 0.0090 40
of
0.8 70% Training 30% Testing
Frequency
30
0.6
ro
20
0.4
10
-p
0.2 3
1 2
0 0
0.0 0
-0.075 -0.05 -0.025 0 0.025 0.05 0.075
re
0 20 40 60 80
(c) (d) Error range of ANN predicted TC (Wm-1 K-1 )
543 Record number
lP
544 Figure 5. Variation of actual and predicted results and their error range for compressive strength
545 and dry thermal conductivity using artificial neural network (ANN)
na
546 4.3.2 ANFIS developed models

ur
547 To optimize performance, the training and testing set acquired from the ANN models were input into the
548 ANFIS model, even though the outcomes of both approaches varied. As shown in Table 9, like ANN, the
Jo
549 MAE and RMSE for ANFIS models of CS and TC approach to zero and MAE are lesser than RMSE.
550 However, the MAE and RMSE in the testing stage are around 50 % and 45 %, respectively, lower than
551 ANN-based models for CS and around 85% each lower for TC, showing an outburst performance of ANFIS
552 models (Jalal et al., 2021b). Also, in accordance with the RSE and RMSLE, the performance of ANFIS
553 leads the ANN and is nearly equal to zero. The RMSLE is exactly equaled to zero for the TC-ANFIS model,
554 showing a negligible number of higher error values (Farooq et al., 2021). Furthermore, Figure 6(a) and
555 Figure 6(c) also show that ANFIS predicted values efficiently follow the actuals results for both CS and
556 TC, respectively. The maximum absolute error is equaling 2.94 MPa and 0.0270 Wm-1k-1 for CS and TC
557 respectively, which is 44 % and 72 %, respectively lower than ANN predictive models. Similarly, a quite
558 higher percentage (92%) of ANFIS predicted CS have an error in the range [-0.5, 0.5] MPa. And nearly all
559 data points (98%) of ANFIS predicted TC have an error in range [-0.025, 0.025] Wm-1k-1. The ANFIS
560 models show relatively better results than ANN-based models (Jalal et al., 2021b).
Actual CS ANFIS predicted CS Absolute error
30 75 73
M AETrain 0.2579 RM SETrain 0.4568 RSETrain 0.0190 70
25
60
20 70% Training 30% Testing
Frequency
45
15
30
10
15
5
2 3 4 4 2
1 0
0 0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5
(a) Record number (b) Error ranges of ANFIS predicted CS (MPa)
1.2 56

40
of
0.8 70% Training 30% Testing
Frequency
29
0.6 30
ro
0.4 20
-p
0.2 10
0 1 0
0.0 0
re
0 20 40 60 80 -0.025 0 0.025 0.05 0.075
(c) (d) Error range of ANFIS predicted TC (Wm-1 K-1 )
561 Record number
lP
563 and dry thermal conductivity using adaptive neuro-interface system (ANFIS)
na
564 4.3.3 MEP developed models

565 The empirical formulation-based MEP models were developed for CS and TC, after optimizing the
ur
566 database, which had 159 and 87 entries for CS and TC, respectively. Table 9 shows that the MAE and
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567 RMSE values of MEP models of CS are higher than ANFIS and lower than ANN-developed models. While
568 for the TC-MEP model, these indices are higher than both ANFIS and ANN models. However, these values
569 are still nearer to zero. The MAE and RMSE in the testing stage are 28 % and 38 %, respectively lower
570 than the CS-ANN model, around 70 % and 60 %, respectively higher than the TC-ANN model. Like ANN
571 and ANFIS, in MEP models the MAE is quite lesser than RMSE in both stages (training and testing) for
572 both CS and TC. The RSE and RMSLE also approach zero, but higher than ANFIS and lower than ANN
573 models for CS and TC. Like MAE and RMSE, the RSE and RMSLE in both training and testing are lower
574 than the CS-ANN model and higher than the TC-ANN model. This shows that MEP predicted results have
575 comparatively lower error values than ANN predictive models for CS and conversely for TC. Also, evident
576 from Figure 7(a) and Figure 7(c), the variation between actual and predicted results is comparatively quite
577 lower for CS and higher for TC. In contrast with the aforementioned discussion around 77 % of MEP
578 predicted results have an error in the prescribed range for CS [-0.5, 0.5] MPa, which is lower than ANN
579 predictive model for CS. However, ANN also gives some higher error values far away from the prescribed
580 range. In the case of TC, around 71 % error values fall in range [-0.025, 0.025] Wm-1k-1, which is also quite
581 lower than the TC-ANN model (96 %). In accordance with MAE, RMSE, RSE, and RMSLE, the MEP
582 models comparatively lead ANN in performance and lack behind ANFIS models. The variation in the
583 comparative performance of ANN and MEP models for CS and TC might be due to the variation in the
584 experimental records i.e., 159 and 87 for CS and TC respectively. The evolutionary algorithm (MEP) gives
585 quite better performance than ANN for the larger data set. Also, the values statistical measures considerably
586 decreased for the testing stage in ANN-based models (Jalal et al., 2021b). However, in the case of MEP
587 models, the statistical measures in the training and testing stage are nearer as compared to ANN models,
588 replicating its better performance.
589 Furthermore, the performance and effectiveness of the established MEP equations for CS and TC was
of
590 assessed using p-values of correlation i.e., the probability of significance (importance). The p-values are
ro
591 computed using a 5% significance threshold using SPSS software, which is widely utilized in practice
592 (Güllü, 2012, 2014). It indicates the level of evidence against the null hypothesis i.e., the smaller the p-
593 value, the stronger the evidence. For the developed MEP equations for CS and TC, the p-values of “0.000”
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594 were obtained i.e., lower than 0.05 showing the statistically "significant" correlations (Strong rejection of
lP
595 null hypothesis) (Flannery et al., 1992; Güllü and Girisken, 2013). Thus, both the CS-MEP and the TC-
596 MEP produce a considerable fitting of correlation between the measured and projected values.
na
Actual CS MEP predicted CS Absolute error

30 75
67
ur
25 60
49
20
70% Training 30% Testing
Frequency
45
Jo
15
30
10
14
15 9
5 6
2 3 4 2 3
0 0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
(a) Record number (b) Error ranges of MEP predicted CS (MPa)
1.2

24
22
0.8 20
Frequency
70% Training 30% Testing 16 16
0.6 15
0.4 10
4
0.2 5
2
1 1
0.0 0
0 20 40 60 80 -0.075 -0.05 -0.025 0 0.025 0.05 0.075 0.1
(c) (d) Error range of MEP predicted TC (Wm-1 K-1 )
597 Record number
599 and dry thermal conductivity using multi-expression programming (MEP)
600 4.4 Performance assessment of the developed models using literature recommendations
601 The integrated measurements of statistical performance (PI and OF) for models are tabulated in Table 9
602 and graphically presented in Figure 8(a)-(d). The lower the values of these integrated measurements, the
603 better the performance of the model will be (Javed et al., 2020; Khan et al., 2021b). The values of these
604 measurements are approaches to 0, stating the good performance of the developed models. In CS models,
605 the lowest PI is observed for the ANFIS approach that is equal to 0.1145 and 0.1350 in the training and
606 testing stage, respectively, and for the MEP model, PI is 0.1871 and 0.1510, respectively. As discussed in
607 Section 3.3, in accordance with PI values less than 0.2, the CS models using the ANFIS, and MEP approach
of
608 can be categorized as good. While the CS-ANN model shows satisfactory performance with PI greater than
609 0.2 and lesser than 0.3, i.e., 0.2523 and 0.2496, for the training and testing stage, respectively. The PI for
ro
610 all predictive models (ANN, ANFIS, and MEP) developed for TC is lower than 0.2 and classified and good
611
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models. However, in the case of ANN, the training and testing PI varied considerably. This is because of
re
612 the associated local minima problem of ANN (Jalal et al., 2021b; Zhang et al., 2020). The optimization
613 process, instead of terminating globally, sometimes ends at a locally optimized state and develops some
lP
614 erroneous predictions (Zhang et al., 2020). Locally optimized state refers to termination of the search
615 algorithm (ANN) for a specific problem, when the best solution is found even if it is not the optimal
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616 (Jalal et al., 2021b; Landeras et al., 2012). However, in case of ANFIS algorithm the similar
ur
617 problem is controlled via the fuzzification of logical reasoning ability of fuzzy logic and training
618 ability of neural network (Jalal et al., 2021b). In addition, the OF values by ANN, ANFIS, and MEP
Jo
619 are nearly equals to 0, which are 0.2506, 0.1269, and 0.1653, respectively for CS models and 0.0835,
620 0.0078, and 0.0923, respectively for TC models. Thus, validating the overall efficacy of the machine
621 learning-based predictive models with controlled overfitting.
0.3 0.30
CS Models Train Test CS Models
0.25 0.25
Objective function (OF)

Performance index (PI)
0.2 0.20
0.15 0.15
0.1 0.10
0.05 0.05
0 0.00
(a) ANN ANFIS MEP (b) ANN ANFIS MEP
0.18 0.10
TC Models TC Models
Train Test
0.16
of
0.14 0.08
Objective function (OF)

Performance index (PI)
0.12
ro
0.06
0.1
0.08
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0.04
0.06
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0.04 0.02
0.02
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0 0.00
(c) ANN ANFIS MEP (d) ANN ANFIS MEP
622
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623 Figure 8. The performance index (PI) and objective function (OF) of; (a)-(b) compressive strength (CS)
624 models, (c)-(d) dry thermal conductivity (TC) models
ur
625 The summarized statistical parameters for external validation of the ANN, ANFIS, and MEP models for
Jo
626 CS and TC are presented in Table 10. The details of these external statistical indices are already given in
627 Section 3.3, specifically in Table 8. The slope k or k’ is between 0.85 and 1.15 along with Ro2 and Ro'2
628 nearly equaling 1 for all predictive models (Iqbal, M.F. et al., 2021a; Khan et al., 2021a). Also, the Rx and
629 Rm are less than 0.3 and greater than 0.5, respectively for each ANN, ANFIS, and MEP-based CS and TC
630 model (Ali Khan et al., 2021; Jalal et al., 2021a). Thus, qualifying all the required conditions, replicating
631 the highly generalized predictions, and superior degree of accurateness.
632 Table 10. Statistical parameters for external validation of ANN, ANFIS and MEP models of the
633 GEP models for the external validation
Proposed models k k' Ro2 Ro'2 Rx Rm
ANN 1.0586 0.8899 0.9952 0.9106 0.0845 0.6711
CS ANFIS 0.9718 1.0068 0.9988 0.9677 0.0311 0.8033
MEP 0.9435 1.0322 0.9950 0.9608 0.0342 0.7893
ANN 1.0012 0.9956 1.0000 0.9891 0.0109 0.8978
TC
ANFIS 1.0015 0.9984 1.0000 0.9998 0.0002 0.9866
MEP 0.9358 1.0483 0.9837 0.9340 0.0497 0.7789
634 In every predictive model (ANN, ANFIS, MEP), the predicted values closely follow the path of the actual
635 results for both CS and TC. Based on the overall R, R2 and NSE, the increasing order is ANFIS > MEP >
636 ANN for both CS and TC. However, the MEP models do better than ANFIS and ANN for both CS and TC,
637 in terms of closeness of the R, R2, and NSE of training and testing set. Furthermore, the MEP is an
638 evolutionary technique and provides a simple empirical mathematical equation for the prediction of CS and
639 TC (See Equation (25) and (26)), which considerably reduces the total time required for estimating the CS
640 and TC tests. And much faster evaluation can be done as compared to the conventional test procedures.
641 Thus, the projected equations are a feasible and fast process for estimating the CS and TC of bio-composite
642 concrete.
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643 4.5. Sensitivity and parametric study of MEP equations
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644 It is highly imperative to conduct a variety of analyses in AI-based modeling to verify that the suggested
645 models are remarkably adaptable and flexible and continue to perform so well on a variety of data.
646
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The sensitivity analysis (SA) and parametric studies assist to verify the robustness, efficacy, and
re
647 reliability of the developed MEP models (Equation (25) and (26)), through testing its dependability on
lP
648 physical processes (Azim et al., 2020b). The SA on the entire dataset indicates the sensitiveness of the
649 proposed model is to a change in the particular inputs parameters under consideration (Güllü, 2012; Iqbal,
na
650 M.F. et al., 2021a). In the present research, the SA is used to examine the relative contribution or
651 influence of the input variables to the predicted compressive strength (CS) and dry thermal conductivity
ur
652 (TC) using Equation (27) and Equation (28), respectively.

𝑅𝑘 = 𝑃𝑚𝑎𝑥 (𝑋𝑘 ) − 𝑃𝑚𝑖𝑛 (𝑋𝑘 ) (27)
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𝑅𝑘
𝑆𝐴 (%) = 𝑙=1
× 100 (28)
∑𝑛 𝑅𝑙
653 Where, 𝑅𝑘 refers to the range and can be calculated by taking the difference of the maximum (𝑃𝑚𝑎𝑥 (𝑋𝑘 ))
654 and minimum (𝑃𝑚𝑖𝑛 (𝑋𝑘 )) values of model-predicted results for kth input domain, keeping all other input
655 variables at constant mean value. The SA showing the relative importance of a particular input variable
656 among other inputs and the predicted response parameter varies between 0 to 1 (Güllü, 2012). For highly
657 influential input variables the SA is nearly equal to 1 and 0 for least influential (Alavi et al., 2013). Figure
658 9(a) and Figure 10(a) graphically represent the SA of CS and TC, respectively. The increasing trend of the
659 importance of inputs variables for CS was; PA/B > W/B > ρc > DPA > B% > ρPA > CSB > WPA while ρc >
660 PA% > PA/B > WPA > ρPA > CSB > W/B for TC. In the prediction of both properties, the PA/B and ρc lie in
661 the first three most influential parameters affecting the prediction of CS and TC, while the CSB has the least
662 effect of 0.96 % and 1.88 %, respectively. In the case of TC prediction, the most influential input was ρc,
663 contributing 37.29% and two pairs of inputs have almost similar influence i.e., ≅16% for PA% and PA/B,
664 and ≅15% for ρPA and WPA. The PA/B, W/B, and ρc cumulatively contribute 80.83 %, in the prediction of
665 CS. All the input variables considered in this study considerably affect the prediction of CS and TC.
40 1.4
33.92 y = 3E-05x3 - 0.0052x2 + 0.2201x - 1.5561
Relative contribution of inputs (%)
1.2

30 1.0
25.50
21.41 0.8
20
0.6
0.4
10 6.88 7.02
3.76 0.2
0.96 0.54
0 0.0
B% PA/B W/B CSB ρPA W PA DPA ρC 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
(a) Input variables for compressive strength of bio-composites (b) Percentage of binder, B (%)
5.0 1.20
8

4.0 1.15
of
y = 1.0888x-0.903 y = 0.0031x + 0.8915
y = 0.355x-0.846 6 1.10
3.0
ro
1.05
2.0 4
1.00
-p
1.0 2
0.95
0.0 0 0.90
re
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 0 20 40 60 80 100
(c) Plant aggregate to binder ratio, PA/B (d) (e)
Water to binder ratio, W/B Compressive strength of binder, CSB (MPa)
1.7 1.02 1.03
lP
1.00 1.01

1.5
0.98 0.99
1.3 0.97
0.96
na
y = 208.95x-1.117 y = -7E-06x 2 + 0.0027x + 0.7336 y = -0.0019x2 + 0.0148x + 0.984

1.1 0.94 0.95
0.92 0.93
0.9
0.91
0.90
ur
0.7 0.89
0.88
0.5 0.87
0.86
Jo
70 100 130 160 190 220 50 100 150 200

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
(f) Density of plant aggregate, 3 (g) (h) Diameter of plant aggregate, D PA (mm)
PA (kg/m ) Percentage of water absorption, W PA (%)
6
5
y = 0.0038x - 1.3165
4
0
250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000
666 (i) Density of bio-composite, 3
c (kg/m )
667 Figure 9. (a) Sensitivity study and, Parametric analysis for compressive strength of bio-composites
668 (b) percentage of binder content; (c) plant aggregate-to-binder ratio; (d) water-to-binder ratio; (e)
669 compressive strength of binder; (f) density of plant aggregate; (g) percentage of water absorption;
670 (h) diameter of plant aggregate; (i) density of bio-composite.
40 0.22
37.29
Dry thermal conductivity (Wm-1 k -1 )

Relative contribution of inputs (%)
0.2
30
y = 6E-05x2 - 0.0051x + 0.2193
0.18
20 0.16
15.77 15.68 14.55
14.45
0.14
10
0.12
1.88
0.38
0.1
0
0 10 20 30 40
PA% PA/B W/B CSB ρPA W PA ρC
(a) Input variables for thermal conductivity (b) Percentage of plant aggregate, PA (%)
0.22 0.147 0.154


0.2
y = 0.0001x + 0.1391
y = 0.1048x + 0.1004 y = -0.0009x + 0.1462 0.150
0.18 0.146
0.16 0.146
0.145
of
0.14
0.142
0.12
ro
0.1 0.144 0.138
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 0 20 40 60 80 100
(c) Plant aggregate- to-binder ratio, PA/B (d) Water-to-binder ratio, W/B (e) Compressive strength of binder, CSB (MPa)
-p
0.2 0.22 0.35

0.18 0.2 0.3
re
y = 9E-08x3 - 3E-05x2 + 0.0031x + 0.0954 y = 0.0001x + 0.0372
0.16 y = 1.2468x-0.43 0.25
0.18
0.14 0.2
lP
0.16
0.12 0.15
0.14
0.1 0.1
na
0.08 0.12 0.05

70 90 110 130 150 170 190 210 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000
Density of plant aggregate, ρPA (kg/m3) (g) Water absorption of plant aggregate, W PA (%)
671(f) (h) Density of bio-composite, ρC (kg/m 3 )
ur
672 Figure 10. (a) Sensitivity study and, Parametric analysis for dry thermal conductivity of bio-
673 composites (b) percentage of plant aggregate; (c) plant aggregate-to-binder ratio; (d) water-to-
Jo
674 binder ratio; (e) compressive strength of binder; (f) density of plant aggregate; (g) percentage of
675 water absorption; (h) density of bio-composite.
676 To even further confirm the viability and efficacy of the proposed MEP equations the researcher suggests
677 the parametric study (monotonicity analysis), that the models have addressed the actual physical processes
678 and are not just correlations, and is therefore used in the present work (Iqbal, M.F. et al., 2021a). In the
679 parametric studies, the single input feature was altered while the remaining others were fixed at their
680 mean value. The corresponding change and their respective trends with CS and TC were determined.
681 Figure 9(b)-(i) and Figure 10(b)-(h), show the parametric analysis for the developed CS and TC equations,
682 respectively. The CS linearly increases with the increase of compressive strength of binder (Figure 9(e))
683 and dry density of bio-composite (Figure 9(i)), while it decreases at different rates with the increase of
684 plant aggregate-to-binder (Figure 9(c)), water-to-binder ratio (Figure 9(d)) and density of plant aggregate
685 (Figure 9(f)). For the percentage of binder content (Figure 9(b)), water absorption of plant aggregate
686 (Figure 9(g)), and diameter of plant aggregate (Figure 9(h)), the CS follows a third and second-order
687 polynomial trend for each respectively. Similarly, the TC also increases linearly with plant aggregate-to-
688 binder ratio (Figure 10(c)), compressive strength of binder (Figure 10(e)), and density of bio-composites
689 (Figure 10(h)), however, it linearly reduces with water-to-binder ratio. With the percentage of plant
690 aggregate (Figure 10(b)), density, and water absorption of plant aggregate (Figure 10(f) and 10(g)), the
691 TC reduces at different rates. The denser concrete has fewer voids, less permeable and compacted structure,
692 thus showing the higher CS. The increase of plant aggregate, leads to the porous concrete structure, thus,
693 lowering its CS and TC. For CS, the optimum binder content and optimum diameter of plant aggregate
694 were equal to around 30 % and 4 mm respectively. All the trends shown in Figure 9 and Figure 10 for CS
695 and TC, respectively are in strong agreement and consistent with the experimental results in the database.
696 Thus, validating the proposed MEP equations for CS and TC and confirming the strong relationship
697 between the stated input variables used for CS and TC.
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698 5. Conclusion
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699 To reduce the environmental concern of increasing concrete consumption, more environment friendly
700 concretes are needed. To achieve this goal, hemp-bio-composites (HBC) are used. However, the tests to
701
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estimate the thermal conductivity (TC) and compressive strength (CS) of HBC may take long time and be
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702 costly. This research presents a comparative study of three different artificial intelligence (AI) techniques
703 namely, artificial neural network (ANN), adaptive neuro-fuzzy interface system (ANFIS), and multi-gene
lP
704 expression programming (MEP), presenting the predictive models for the compressive strength (CS) and
705 dry-thermal conductivity (TC) of hemp-based bio-composites (HBC). A total of 159 and 86 experimental
na
706 records for CS and TC, respectively, were achieved from the past published literature. The ten most
ur
707 influential input variables considered are; percentage of plant aggregate by weight (PA%), percentage of
708 water absorption by weight (WPA%), percentage of binder by weight (B%), plant aggregate to binder ratio
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709 (PA/B), water content to binder ratio (W/B), compressive strength of binder (CS B), the density of
710 cementitious binder (ρB), the density of plant aggregate (ρPA), dry density of composite (ρC), and diameter
711 of plant aggregate (DPA). The performance of the proposed models was tested using root squared error
712 (RSE), mean absolute error (MAE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), root mean square logarithmic error
713 (RMSLE), root mean square error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (R), coefficient of determination (R 2),
714 performance index (PI), the objective function (OF), and other statistical measures recommended in the
715 literature.
716 Based on R, R2 and NSE, the increasing order is ANFIS > MEP > ANN for both CS and TC. The overall
717 R-value for CS models are 0.9929 (ANFIS), 0.9848 (MEP) and 0.9691 (ANN) while 0.9997 (ANFIS)
718 0.9759 (MEP) and 0.9601 (ANN) for TC. Thus, suggesting that all the predictive models possess a high
719 predictive capability. The statistical error analysis of each predictive was performed using RSE, RMSLE,
720 MAE, and RMSE. The RSE and RMSLE of each model were near equals to 0, with MAE lesser than
721 RMSE. The MAE and RMSE of MEP models in the testing stage are 28 % and 38 %, respectively lower
722 than the CS-ANN model, around 70 % and 60 %, respectively higher than the TC-ANN model. In every
723 predictive model (ANN, ANFIS, MEP), the predicted values closely follow the path of the actual results
724 for both CS and TC. For CS, around 83 %, 92 %, and 77 % of the ANN, ANFIS and MEP predicted results
725 have error in range [-0.5, 0.5] MPa, respectively, while around 96 %, 98 % and 71 % in range [-0.025,
726 0.025] Wm-1k-1 respectively for TC models. Thus, confirming the accuracy and efficacy of the proposed
727 models. In accordance with PI values less than 0.2, the CS models using the ANFIS, and MEP approach
728 can be categorized as good. While the CS-ANN model shows satisfactory performance with PI greater than
729 0.2 and lesser than 0.3, i.e., 0.2523 and 0.2496, for the training and testing stage, respectively. The PI for
730 all predictive models (ANN, ANFIS, and MEP) developed for TC is lower than 0.2 and classified and good
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731 models. In addition, the OF values by ANN, ANFIS, and MEP are 0.2506, 0.1269, and 0.1653, respectively
732 for CS models and 0.0835, 0.0078, and 0.0923, respectively for TC models. Thus, validating the overall
ro
733 efficacy of the machine learning-based predictive models with controlled overfitting. Thus, integrated
734
-p
measurements of statistical performance (PI and OF) of all models approach 0, stating the outburst
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735 performance and generalization capability of the developed models. Moreover, based on the external
736 validation criterion suggested in the literature, all models performed well.
lP
737 Furthermore, the MEP is an evolutionary technique and provides a simple empirical mathematical equation
na
738 for the prediction of CS and TC, which considerably reduces the total time required for estimating the CS
739 and TC tests. And much faster evaluation can be done as compared to the conventional tests’ procedures.
ur
740 Thus, the projected equations are a feasible and fast process for estimating the CS and TC of bio-composite
741 concrete. The sensitivity analysis of MEP predictive equation for CS shows that the increasing trend of the
Jo
742 importance and sensitiveness of input variables considered are; PA/B (33.92%) > W/B (29.50%) > ρc
743 (21.41%) > DPA (7.02%) > B% (6.88%) > ρPA (3.76%) > CSB (0.96%) > WPA (0.54%) while ρc (37.29%) >
744 PA% (15.77%) > PA/B (15.68%) > WPA (14.55%) > ρPA (14.45%) > CSB (1.88%) > W/B (0.38%) in case
745 of TC predictive equation. The developed trends from the parametric study of these equations are in strong
746 agreement and consistent with the experimental results in the database. Thus, validating the proposed MEP
747 equations and confirming the that the developed equation addressed the actual physical processes and are
748 not just correlations.
749 The use of the proposed MEP expressions for CS and TC are limited only to the range of input variables in
750 their respective databases. Given this constraint, additional modifications to the established
751 predictive models could be performed to achieve more accurate predictions by using a broader range
752 following the incorporation of many other input factors. The proposed MEP models can be utilized as a
753 benchmark for predicting CS and TC of hemp-based bio-composites (HBC), or they can be used while the
754 preliminary design of HBC. Finally, based on the present study results, it is essential to note that AI
755 methods are very resilient and useful instruments for solving issues with complicated processes, especially
756 in structural material engineering. The simple and easy mathematical equations can be effectively
757 generalized to new fresh unseen data. Furthermore, the author suggested that the findings of this research
758 be validated with the latest data and that other AI techniques be studied, such as model tree algorithm
759 (M5P), Bayesian neural network (BNN), backpropagation neural network (BPNN), k-nearest neighbor
760 (KNN), multilayer perceptron neural network (MLPNN), general regression neural network (GRNN),
761 alternate decision trees, support vector machines (SVMs), multivariate adaptive regression splines
762 (MARS), eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), ensemble random forest regression (ERFR), among many
763 others.
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764 Acknowledgement
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765 We thank the National University of Science and Technology (NUST), Islamabad and CECOS University
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766 of IT and Emerging Sciences, Peshawar for providing a conducive research environment.
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767 Conflict of interest
lP
768 All the authors declare that they have no personal relationship or competing financial interests that could
769 have appeared to affect the research work presented in this paper.
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770 Appendix
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771 Table S1. The MEP provided simplified C++ code for formulation of compressive strength HBC
Jo
#include <math.h>
#include <stdio.h>
void mepx(double *x /*inputs*/, double *outputs)

{
double prg[40];
prg[0] = x[1];
prg[1] = x[8];
prg[2] = x[2];
prg[3] = prg[2] + prg[0];
prg[4] = prg[3] * prg[2];
prg[5] = sqrt(prg[3]);
prg[6] = prg[0] - prg[4];
prg[7] = x[6];
prg[8] = prg[7] + prg[3];
prg[9] = x[3];
prg[10] = prg[1] + prg[9];
prg[11] = x[7];
prg[12] = prg[6] - prg[8];
prg[13] = prg[7] / prg[8];
prg[14] = prg[4] - prg[10];
prg[15] = x[9];
prg[16] = prg[15] + prg[1];
prg[17] = prg[13] / prg[14];
prg[18] = prg[3] * prg[5];
prg[19] = prg[11] - prg[14];
prg[20] = prg[12] * prg[9];
prg[21] = prg[17] / prg[19];
prg[22] = x[4];
of
prg[23] = prg[22] / prg[0];
prg[24] = prg[7] - prg[6];
ro
prg[25] = prg[7] + prg[18];
prg[26] = prg[20] - prg[10];
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prg[27] = prg[25] - prg[16];
prg[28] = prg[16] / prg[1];
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prg[29] = prg[14] / prg[13];
prg[30] = prg[24] / prg[23];
lP
prg[31] = prg[13] / prg[26];

prg[32] = prg[27] * prg[31];
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prg[33] = prg[29] / prg[30];

prg[34] = prg[21] * prg[8];
ur
prg[35] = prg[27] - prg[28];

prg[36] = prg[35] * prg[21];
Jo
prg[37] = prg[32] + prg[33];

prg[38] = prg[37] + prg[36];
prg[39] = prg[38] + prg[34];
outputs[0] = prg[39];
}
int main(void)
{
//example of utilization ...
double x[10];
x[0] = 4.546000;
x[1] = 85.773585;
x[2] = 0.053000;
x[3] = 0.100000;
x[4] = 89.200000; 772
x[5] = 2800.000000;
x[6] = 75.200000;
x[7] = 144.000000;
x[8] = 11.800000;
x[9] = 1656.983000;
double outputs[1];
mepx(x, outputs);
printf("%lf", outputs[0]);
getchar();
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}
773 Table S2. The MEP provided simplified C++ code for the formulation of dry-thermal conductivity
774 of HBC
ro
#include <math.h>
#include <stdio.h>
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void mepx(double *x /*inputs*/, double *outputs)
lP
{
double prg[32];
prg[0] = x[6];
na
prg[1] = x[4];
prg[2] = x[7];
ur
prg[3] = x[0];
prg[4] = prg[3] * prg[2];
Jo
prg[6] = prg[0] - prg[5];
prg[7] = prg[4] * prg[2];
prg[8] = prg[1] - prg[2];
prg[9] = prg[0] * prg[6];
prg[10] = prg[8] + prg[8];
prg[11] = x[6];
prg[13] = x[3];
prg[14] = prg[12] / prg[11];
prg[15] = prg[3] / prg[8];
prg[16] = prg[13] + prg[11];
prg[17] = prg[5] / prg[16];
prg[18] = x[2];
prg[19] = prg[14] * prg[18];
prg[20] = prg[10] + prg[5];
prg[21] = x[9];
prg[22] = prg[7] / prg[9];
prg[23] = prg[20] - prg[22];
prg[24] = prg[4] - prg[23];
prg[25] = prg[24] - prg[20];
prg[26] = prg[21] - prg[22];
prg[27] = prg[17] / prg[25];
prg[28] = prg[26] + prg[15];
prg[29] = prg[28] - prg[14];
prg[30] = prg[27] * prg[29];
prg[31] = prg[30] + prg[19];
of
outputs[0] = prg[31];
}
ro
int main(void)
-p
{ re
//example of utilization ...
lP
double x[10];
x[0] = 4.546000;
na
x[1] = 85.773585;
x[2] = 0.053000;
ur
x[3] = 0.100000;
x[4] = 89.200000;
Jo
x[5] = 2800.000000;
x[6] = 75.200000;
x[7] = 144.000000;
x[8] = 11.800000;
x[9] = 1656.983000;
double outputs[1];
mepx(x, outputs);
printf("%lf", outputs[0]);
getchar();
}
775
776 Table S3. Experimental data of inputs and outputs for the hemp-based bio-composites to establish the machine learning models.
Outputs/Dependent
Inputs/Explanatory variables
parameters
Water Plant Strength
Type Density Compressive Plant Water Density of
Type of to aggregate Percentage Density Diameter of bio- Thermal
No References Mix ID of of Strength of aggregate absorptio bio-
PA Binder to Binder of Binder of PA of PA composite conductivity
Binders binder binder percentage n of PA composites
ratio ratio s
W/B PA/B B 𝜌b CSB 𝜌PA DPA PA WPA 𝜌c CS TC
- - - - - (%) (kg/m3) (MPa) (kg/m3) (mm) (%) (%) (kg/m3) (MPa) (Wm-1K-1)
CS-MPC-
MPC LCS 0.100 0.053 85.77 2800 89.2 75.2 11.8 4.546 144.0 1656.983 20.816 0.643
5LCS
CS-MPC-
MPC LCS 0.100 0.111 81.90 2800 89.2 75.2 11.8 9.091 144.0 1395.329 11.796 0.467
10LCS
CS-MPC-
MPC LCS 0.156 0.176 73.73 2800 89.2 75.2 11.8 12.976 144.0 1185.195 9.686 0.318
15LCS
CS-MPC-
MPC LCS 0.218 0.250 65.66 2800 89.2 75.2 11.8 16.415 144.0 1083.401 6.980 0.192
f
20LCS
oo
CS-MPC-
MPC LCS 0.224 0.333 61.32 2800 89.2 75.2 11.8 20.419 144.0 684.507 5.084 0.167
25LCS
M.R. Ahmad, B. Chen, S. Yousefi Oderji, M. Mohsan,
CS-MPC-
Development of a new bio-composite for building MPC LCS 0.333 0.429 52.48 2800 89.2 75.2 11.8 22.513 144.0 556.674 1.749 0.051
30LCS
1 insulation and structural purpose using corn stalk and
r
CS-MPC-
magnesium phosphate cement, Energy Build. 173 MPC SCS 0.124 0.053 83.92 2800 89.2 98.3 7.0 4.448 92.3 1853.601 28.367 0.998
-p
5SCS
(2018) 719–733. doi:10.1016/j.enbuild.2018.06.007.
CS-MPC-
MPC SCS 0.100 0.111 81.90 2800 89.2 98.3 7.0 9.091 92.3 1665.071 24.490 0.654
10SCS
re
CS-MPC-
MPC SCS 0.130 0.176 75.42 2800 89.2 98.3 7.0 13.274 92.3 1335.198 12.473 0.443
15SCS
CS-MPC-
MPC SCS 0.159 0.250 69.00 2800 89.2 98.3 7.0 17.249 92.3 1048.218 9.441 0.213
lP
20SCS
CS-MPC-
MPC SCS 0.259 0.333 59.62 2800 89.2 98.3 7.0 19.853 92.3 816.937 6.269 0.180
25SCS
CS-MPC-
MPC SCS 0.374 0.429 50.88 2800 89.2 98.3 7.0 21.828 92.3 709.267 2.598 0.099
na
30SCS
Crushed
LC-1 MPC 0.550 1.000 39.22 2800 93.5 121.6 12.5 39.216 156.2 552.000 2.960 0.137
CS
Crushed
LC-2 MPC 0.315 0.500 55.10 2800 93.5 121.6 12.5 27.548 156.2 903.000 4.690 0.235
M.R. Ahmad, B. Chen, M.A. Haque, S.F. Ali Shah,
CS
ur
Crushed
Development of a sustainable and innovant LC-3 MPC 0.236 0.330 63.86 2800 93.5 121.6 12.5 21.075 156.2 1196.000 8.170 0.338
CS
2 hygrothermal bio-composite featuring the enhanced
Jo
Crushed
mechanical properties, J. Clean. Prod. (2019). HC-1 MPC 0.550 1.000 39.22 2800 93.5 121.6 12.5 39.216 156.2 927.000 4.710 0.227
CS
doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.05.002.
Crushed
HC-2 MPC 0.315 0.500 55.10 2800 93.5 121.6 12.5 27.548 156.2 1192.000 6.950 0.292
CS
Crushed
HC-3 MPC 0.236 0.330 63.86 2800 93.5 121.6 12.5 21.075 156.2 1500.000 12.030 0.406
CS
Crushed
M.R. Ahmad, B. Chen, M.A. Haque, S.F. Ali Shah, CM MPC 0.625 0.500 47.06 2800 74.3 121.6 12.5 23.529 156.2 718.000 3.490 0.177
CS
Utilization of industrial and hazardous waste materials
Crushed
3 to formulate energy-efficient hygrothermal bio- 50FA MPC 0.625 0.500 47.06 2800 93.5 121.6 12.5 23.529 156.2 733.000 2.920 0.164
CS
composites, J. Clean. Prod. (2019) 119469.
Crushed
doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119469. 50RM MPC 0.625 0.500 47.06 2800 88.3 121.6 12.5 23.529 156.2 711.000 4.260 0.139
CS
Crushed
GP-1 GP 0.650 0.455 47.47 2500 79.0 121.6 12.5 21.598 156.2 774.000 1.130 0.150
CS
Crushed
GP-2 GP 0.650 0.455 47.47 2500 77.0 121.6 12.5 21.598 156.2 782.000 1.750 0.153
CS
M.R. Ahmad, B. Chen, M.A. Haque, S.Y. Oderji,
Crushed
Multiproperty characterization of cleaner and energy- GP-3 GP 0.475 0.300 56.33 2500 77.0 121.6 12.5 16.898 156.2 1047.000 3.590 0.206
CS
4 efficient vegetal concrete based on one-part
Crushed
geopolymer binder, J. Clean. Prod. 253 (2020). GP-4 GP 0.650 0.455 47.47 2500 55.0 121.6 12.5 21.598 156.2 771.000 1.250 0.130
CS
doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119916.
Crushed
GP-5 GP 0.650 0.455 47.47 2500 49.0 121.6 12.5 21.598 156.2 776.000 1.470 0.147
CS
Crushed
GP-6 GP 0.451 0.284 57.73 2500 54.4 121.6 12.5 16.394 156.2 1130.000 5.720 0.209
CS
5 MPC-L MPC LCS 0.236 0.430 60.02 2500 93.5 75.2 11.8 25.810 144.0 598.000 1.800 0.060
MPC-S MPC SCS 0.356 0.430 55.98 2500 93.5 98.3 7.0 24.071 92.3 662.000 2.150 0.130
M.R. Ahmad, B. Chen, Influence of type of binder and
MPC-G MPC GCS 0.761 0.430 45.65 2500 93.5 124.4 0.1 19.629 200.0 770.000 1.630 0.154
size of plant aggregate on the hygrothermal properties
OPC-L OPC LCS 0.386 0.430 55.07 2800 70.2 75.2 11.8 23.678 144.0 546.000 0.450 0.075
of bio-concrete, Constr. Build. Mater. 251 (2020).
OPC-S OPC SCS 0.506 0.430 51.64 2800 70.2 98.3 7.0 22.206 92.3 618.000 0.830 0.120
doi:10.1016/j.conbuildmat.2020.118981.
OPC-G OPC GCS 0.911 0.430 42.72 2800 70.2 124.4 0.1 18.371 200.0 762.000 0.870 0.154
Crushed
OPC-UCS OPC 0.648 0.330 50.99 2800 70.2 131.6 7.6 16.828 210.9 850.000 0.800 0.111
CS
OPC-ACS OPC ACS 0.498 0.330 55.12 2800 70.2 122.8 7.6 18.188 161.2 889.000 1.090 0.120
OPC-LCS OPC HCS 0.358 0.330 59.67 2800 70.2 199.4 6.7 19.692 62.9 1133.000 1.400 0.200
Crushed
M.R. Ahmad, B. Chen, J.G. Dai, S.M.S. Kazmi, and GP-UCS GP 0.697 0.330 49.70 2500 79.0 131.6 7.6 16.401 210.9 819.000 1.200 0.109
CS
M.J. Munir. Evolutionary artificial intelligence
GP-ACS GP ACS 0.614 0.330 51.44 2500 79.0 122.8 7.6 16.975 161.2 975.000 2.400 0.126
6 approach for performance prediction of bio-
GP-LCS GP HCS 0.468 0.330 56.04 2500 79.0 199.4 6.7 18.492 62.9 1143.000 3.600 0.173
composites, Constr. Build. Mater. 290 (2021).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.conbuildmat.2021.123254 MPC- Crushed
MPC 0.226 0.330 64.72 3000 93.5 131.6 7.6 21.356 210.9 860.000 4.400 0.145
UCS CS
MPC-
MPC ACS 0.207 0.330 65.52 3000 93.5 122.8 7.6 21.621 161.2 908.000 5.900 0.157
ACS
MPC-
MPC HCS 0.150 0.330 68.10 3000 93.5 199.4 6.7 22.473 62.9 1222.000 8.300 0.241
f
LCS
oo
T.T. Nguyen, V. Picandet, P. Carre, T. Lecompte, S. Lime-HS Lime HS 0.930 0.470 42.56 1200 10.0 103.0 20.004 700.000 1.350 0.110
Amziane, C. Baley, Effect of compaction on
7
mechanical and thermal properties of hemp concrete, Lime-HS Lime HS 0.860 0.470 27.57 1200 10.0 103.0 12.959 670.000 1.500 0.105
Eur. J. Environ. Civ. Eng. 14 (2010) 545–560.
r
S. Kioy, Lime-hemp composites: compressive strength Lime-HS Lime HS 1.100 0.320 41.32 650 10.0 123.0 13.223 610.000 1.880
-p
and résistance to fungal attacks. MEng dissertation, Lime-HS Lime HS 0.800 0.320 47.17 650 10.0 123.0 15.094 830.000 1.980
8
recalled in Appendix 1: Resistance to compression and
Lime-HS Lime HS 1.300 0.130 41.15 650 10.0 123.0 5.350 356.000 0.300
stress-strain properties, (2013).
re
V. Cérézo, Propriétés mécaniques, thermiques et Lime-HS Lime HS 1.300 0.150 40.81 1070 5.0 123.0 6.122 391.000 0.350
acoustiques d’un matériau à base de particules
9 végétales: approche expérimentale et modélisation
Lime-HS Lime HS 1.400 0.190 38.61 1070 5.0 123.0 7.336 504.000 0.700
lP
théorique, Inst. Natl. Des Sci. Appliquées, Lyon.
(2005).
MPC-HS-
MPC HS 0.420 0.200 61.73 1984 45.1 123.0 12.346 600.600 0.700 0.100
20
na
R. del Valle-Zermeño, J.E. Aubert, A. Laborel-
MPC-HS-
Préneron, J. Formosa, J.M. Chimenos, Preliminary MPC HS 0.388 0.160 64.60 1984 45.1 123.0 10.336 696.300 1.100 0.150
16
10 study of the mechanical and hygrothermal properties of
MPC-HS-
hemp-magnesium phosphate cements, Constr. Build. MPC HS 0.356 0.120 67.75 1984 45.1 123.0 8.130 5.100
12
Mater. 105 (2016) 62–68.
MPC-HS-
ur
MPC HS 0.324 0.080 71.23 1984 45.1 123.0 5.698 1425.600 12.400 0.265
8
B. Haba, B. Agoudjil, A. Boudenne, K. Benzarti,
Jo
Hygric properties and thermal conductivity of a new OPC-
11 OPC DPF 0.680 0.150 100.00 35.0 123.0 15.000 954.000 0.185
insulation material for building based on date palm DPF-15
concrete, Constr. Build. Mater. 154 (2017) 963–971.
G. Delannoy, S. Marceau, P. Glé, E. Gourlay, M. Lime HS 1.000 0.500 40.00 5.0 118.3 2.8 20.000 210.0 380.000 0.140 0.120
Guéguen-Minerbe, S. Amziane, F. Farcas, Durability
of hemp concretes exposed to accelerated
12
environmental aging, Constr. Build. Mater. 252 (2020) PNC HS 1.000 0.500 40.00 31.0 118.3 2.8 20.000 210.0 360.000 0.200 0.120
119043.
doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.conbuildmat.2020.119043.
A-2 (A is
Lime HS 1.463 0.411 34.79 700 5.0 114.0 4.6 14.300 460.000 0.160
NHL3.5)
B-2 (B
Lime HS 1.244 0.408 37.75 640 5.9 114.0 4.6 15.400 480.000 0.290
NHL3.5Z)
C-2 (C is
Lime HS 1.162 0.409 38.88 610 114.0 4.6 15.900 480.000 0.250
NHL2)
Arnaud, Laurent, and Etienne Gourlay. "Experimental
D-1 (D is
study of parameters influencing mechanical properties Lime HS 1.594 0.502 32.27 650 5.0 112.0 5.5 16.200 390.000 0.400
13 TPF70)
of hemp concretes." Construction and building
D-2-a Lime HS 0.889 0.208 47.60 650 5.0 114.0 4.6 9.900 660.000 1.180
materials 28, no. 1 (2012): 50-56.
D-2-b Lime HS 1.301 0.387 37.21 650 5.0 114.0 4.6 14.400 500.000 0.500
D-2-c Lime HS 1.463 0.411 34.79 650 5.0 114.0 4.6 14.300 460.000 0.450
D-2-d Lime HS 1.478 0.490 33.67 650 5.0 114.0 4.6 16.500 390.000 0.400
D-2-e Lime HS 2.045 1.020 24.61 650 5.0 114.0 4.6 25.100 250.000 0.200
D-2-f Lime HS 1.594 0.502 32.27 650 5.0 114.0 4.6 16.200 400.000 0.470
D-3 Lime HS 1.594 0.502 32.27 650 5.0 119.0 2.2 16.200 430.000 0.460
AA-
ESP-900 HS 0.550 0.114 60.10 1554 20.0 188.0 6.851 867.000 1.600
CEN
S. Kristombu Baduge, P. Mendis, R. San Nicolas, K.
AA-
Nguyen, A. Hajimohammadi, Performance of ESP-1200 HS 0.550 0.570 47.17 1554 20.0 188.0 26.887 1070.000 1.600
CEN
14 lightweight hemp concrete with alkali-activated
CEN- AA-
cenosphere binders exposed to elevated temperature, HS 0.550 0.570 47.17 1516 28.0 188.0 26.887 988.000 2.000
1200 CEN
Constr. Build. Mater. 224 (2019) 158–172.
AA-
POZ-1200 HS 0.550 0.570 47.17 1565 24.0 188.0 26.887 1083.000 2.200
CEN
A-1 PNC HS 0.960 0.400 42.37 2970 31.0 147.0 4.0 16.949 150.0 496.880 0.490
A-2 PNC HS 0.960 0.400 42.37 2970 31.0 147.0 4.0 16.949 150.0 476.930 0.480
A-3 PNC HS 0.960 0.400 42.37 2970 31.0 147.0 4.0 16.949 150.0 471.440 0.440
A-4 PNC HS 0.960 0.400 42.37 2970 31.0 147.0 4.0 16.949 150.0 465.950 0.420
Niyigena, César, et al. "Variability of the mechanical
A-5 PNC HS 0.960 0.400 42.37 2970 31.0 147.0 4.0 16.949 150.0 468.440 0.490
15 properties of hemp concrete." Materials Today
A-6 PNC HS 0.960 0.400 42.37 2970 31.0 147.0 4.0 16.949 150.0 465.200 0.490
Communications 7 (2016): 122-133.
A-7 PNC HS 0.960 0.400 42.37 2970 31.0 147.0 4.0 16.949 150.0 453.720 0.410
A-8 PNC HS 0.960 0.400 42.37 2970 31.0 147.0 4.0 16.949 150.0 472.480 0.460
A-9 PNC HS 0.960 0.400 42.37 2970 31.0 147.0 4.0 16.949 150.0 452.710 0.450
A-10 PNC HS 0.960 0.400 42.37 2970 31.0 147.0 4.0 16.949 150.0 514.620 0.430
f
BM BM HS 1.550 0.500 32.79 9.0 123.0 16.393 627.000 0.370 0.138
Walker, R., and Sara Pavia. "Moisture transfer and
oo
CM CM HS 1.450 0.500 33.90 10.0 123.0 16.949 627.000 0.360 0.138
thermal properties of hemp–lime concretes."
16 G G HS 1.550 0.500 32.79 11.0 123.0 16.393 564.000 0.390 0.126
Construction and Building Materials 64 (2014): 270-
276. G+WR G+WR HS 1.550 0.500 32.79 12.0 123.0 16.393 569.000 0.380 0.129
M M HS 1.650 0.500 31.75 11.0 123.0 15.873 508.000 0.320 0.117
r
de Bruijn, Paulien Brigitte, Knut-Håkan Jeppsson, A lime HS 1.060 0.280 42.74 1325 5.0 98.0 4.5 11.966 635.000 0.200
-p
Kenneth Sandin, and Christer Nilsson. "Mechanical B lime HS 1.330 0.330 37.59 1165 7.0 98.0 4.5 12.406 630.000 0.150
17 properties of lime–hemp concrete containing shives C lime HS 1.200 0.300 40.00 1212 9.0 98.0 4.5 12.000 640.000 0.440
and fibres." Biosystems engineering 103, no. 4 (2009): D lime HS 1.110 0.280 41.84 1248 10.0 98.0 4.5 11.715 670.000 0.830
re
474-479. E lime HS 0.890 0.220 47.40 1330 9.0 98.0 4.5 10.427 690.000 0.550
HL-1 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 291.000 0.180
HL-2 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 319.000 0.375
lP
HL-3 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 344.000 0.180
HL-4 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 347.000 0.225
HL-5 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 351.000 0.225
HL-6 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 353.000 0.250
na
HL-7 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 357.000 0.450
HL-8 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 361.000 0.325
HL-9 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 367.000 0.300
HL-10 lime HS
ur
1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 384.000 0.200
HL-11 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 387.000 0.225
HL-12 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 389.000 0.425
Jo
HL-13 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 404.000 0.350
HL-14 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 416.000 0.180
HL-15 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 417.000 0.400
HL-16 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 418.000 0.250
Elfordy, S., F. Lucas, Franc Tancret, Y. Scudeller, and HL-17 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 421.000 0.600
L. Goudet. "Mechanical and thermal properties of lime
HL-18 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 424.000 0.280
18 and hemp concrete (“hempcrete”) manufactured by a
HL-19 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 434.000 0.480
projection process." Construction and Building
Materials 22, no. 10 (2008): 2116-2123. HL-20 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 440.000 0.400
HL-21 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 448.000 0.500
HL-22 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 454.000 0.350
HL-23 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 461.000 0.580
HL-24 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 466.000 0.325
HL-25 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 479.000 0.500
HL-26 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 481.000 0.325
HL-27 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 485.000 0.400
HL-28 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 291.000 0.400
HL-29 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 319.000 0.520
HL-30 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 344.000 0.300
HL-31 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 347.000 0.450
HL-32 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 351.000 0.675
HL-33 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 353.000 0.200
HL-34 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 357.000 0.480
HL-35 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 361.000 0.550
HL-36 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 367.000 0.550
HL-37 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 384.000 0.450
HL-38 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 387.000 0.675
HL-39 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 389.000 0.800
HL-40 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 404.000 0.425
HL-41 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 416.000 0.750
HL-42 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 417.000 0.450
HL-43 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 418.000 0.610
HL-44 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 421.000 0.800
HL-45 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 424.000 0.750
HL-46 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 434.000 0.500
HL-47 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 440.000 0.550
HL-48 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 448.000 0.750
HL-49 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 454.000 0.820
HL-50 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 461.000 0.780
HL-51 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 466.000 0.850
HL-52 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 479.000 0.480
HL-53 lime HS 1.470 0.470 34.04 650 10.0 123.0 16.000 481.000 0.800
f
F1-1 lime HS 1.350 0.310 37.59 650 10.0 110.0 11.654 638.000 1.190 0.111
oo
F1-2 lime HS 1.450 0.420 34.84 650 10.0 140.0 14.634 541.000 0.800 0.097
Benmahiddine, Ferhat, Rachid Cherif, Fares Bennai,
F1-3 lime Flax 1.550 0.540 32.36 650 10.0 100.0 17.476 468.000 0.530 0.082
Rafik Belarbi, Abdelkader Tahakourt, and Kamilia
F2-1 lime Flax 1.350 0.310 37.59 650 10.0 110.0 11.654 664.000 0.910 0.127
Abahri. "Effect of flax shives content and size on the
19 F2-2 lime Flax 1.450 0.420 34.84 650 10.0 140.0 14.634 549.000 0.740 0.104
hygrothermal and mechanical properties of flax
r
F2-3 lime Flax 1.550 0.540 32.36 650 10.0 100.0 17.476 460.000 0.610 0.084
concrete." Construction and Building Materials 262
-p
F3-1 lime Flax 1.350 0.310 37.59 650 10.0 110.0 11.654 643.000 0.910 0.122
(2020): 120077.
F3-2 lime Flax 1.450 0.420 34.84 650 10.0 140.0 14.634 550.000 0.790 0.097
F3-3 lime Flax 1.550 0.540 32.36 650 10.0 100.0 17.476 469.000 0.590 0.088
re
Lime100 lime Flax 2.920 0.500 22.62 650 10.0 123.0 11.312 330.000 0.090 0.060
Haik, R., G. Bar-Nes, A. Peled, and I. A. Meir. lime90 lime Flax 2.920 0.500 22.62 650 9.0 123.0 11.312 330.000 0.110 0.062
"Alternative unfired binders as lime replacement in lime70 lime HS 2.920 0.500 22.62 650 8.0 123.0 11.312 330.000 0.120 0.063
20
lP
hemp concrete." Construction and Building Materials lime50 lime HS 2.920 0.500 22.62 650 7.0 123.0 11.312 330.000 0.110 0.063
241 (2020): 117981. lime30 lime HS 2.920 0.500 22.62 650 6.0 123.0 11.312 330.000 0.060 0.063
lime0 lime HS 2.920 0.500 22.62 650 5.0 123.0 11.312 330.000 0.128 0.070
Sheridan, Joseph, et al. "The effect of a polyacrylic PNC-
PNC HS 1.500 0.500 33.20 650 31.0 102.0 16.600 224.0 480.000 0.500 0.107
na
acid viscosity modifying agent on the mechanical, hemp shiv
21 thermal and transport properties of hemp and rapeseed
PNC-
straw concrete." Construction and Building Materials PNC HS 1.500 0.500 33.20 650 31.0 79.5 16.600 196.7 580.000 0.850 0.090
Rape seed
235 (2020): 117536.
Lime-
ur
Lime HS 1.500 1.000 28.57 650 10.0 123.0 28.571 250.000 0.086
hemp-1
Lime-
Jo
Lime HS 1.500 1.000 28.57 650 10.0 123.0 28.571 300.000 0.099
hemp-2
Lime-
Florence Collet, Sylvie Prétot. THERMAL Lime HS 1.500 1.000 28.57 650 10.0 123.0 28.571 350.000 0.111
hemp-3
CONDUCTIVITY OF HEMP CONCRETES:
Lime-
VARIATION WITH FORMULATION, DENSITY Lime HS 1.500 0.500 33.20 650 10.0 123.0 16.600 400.000 0.125
hemp-4
22 AND WATER CONTENT. Construction and Building
Lime-
Materials, Elsevier, 2014, 65, pp.612-619. Lime HS 1.500 0.500 33.20 650 10.0 123.0 16.600 450.000 0.138
hemp-5
ff10.1016/j.conbuildmat.2014.05.039ff. ffhal-
01003739f Lime-
Lime HS 1.500 0.500 33.20 650 10.0 123.0 16.600 500.000 0.152
hemp-6
Lime-
Lime HS 1.500 0.400 34.48 650 10.0 123.0 13.793 550.000 0.166
hemp-7
Lime-
Lime HS 1.500 0.400 34.48 650 10.0 123.0 13.793 600.000 0.180
hemp-8
Gourlay, Etienne, Philippe Glé, Sandrine Marceau, PNC-S1 PNC HS-S1 1.300 0.500 35.71 2970 31.0 70.0 3.0 17.857 138.0 351.000 0.105
Cédric Foy, and Sandrine Moscardelli. "Effect of water
23 content on the acoustical and thermal properties of
PNC-S2 PNC HS-S2 1.300 0.500 35.71 2970 31.0 98.0 1.8 17.857 159.0 340.000 0.100
hemp concretes." Construction and Building Materials
139 (2017): 513-523.
M. Rahim, O. Douzane, A.D. Tran Le, T. Langlet, HLC Lime HS 1.333 0.444 36.04 650 10.0 125.0 16.000 478.000 0.123
Effect of moisture and temperature on thermal FLC Lime FS 1.333 0.444 36.04 650 10.0 90.0 16.000 598.000 0.168
24 properties of three bio-based materials, Constr. Build.
Mater. 111 (2016) 119–127. SLC Lime RSS 1.333 0.444 36.04 650 10.0 130.0 16.000 462.000 0.094
doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.conbuildmat.2016.02.061
T. Pierre, T. Colinart, P. Glouannec, Measurement of
25 thermal properties of biosourced building materials, Lime-HS Lime HS 0.925 0.575 40.00 650 6.0 123.0 23.000 398.700 0.100
Int. J. Thermophys. 35 (2014) 1832–1852.
777
778 Table S4. Symbols used in the Table S3.
Notations Full name

HS Hemp shiv
PA Plant aggregate
B Binder
f
W Water
oo
CS Corn stalk
FS Flax Shiv
r
-p
HLC Hemp lime concrete
RSS Rape seed straw
re
PNC Portland natural cement
lP
ACS Alkali treated corn stalk
HSC Hydrophobic treated corn stalk
na
779
ur
Jo
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Highlights
• Prediction of compressive strength and dry-thermal conductivity of bio-composites using
three soft computing techniques (ANN, ANFIS, MEP)
• The comparative performance of the developed models was assessed via nine different
statistical indicators like RSE, MAE, NSE, RMSLE, RMSE, R, R2, PI, and OF.
• Sensitivity and parametric studies were conducted to assess the coherence of the developed
MEP equations with the actual physical phenomenon.
• The generated MEP expressions can be used to avoid time consuming and costly
experimental procedure skillful persons.
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Declaration of interests
☒ The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships
that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
☐The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered
as potential competing interests:
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New Prediction Models For The Compressive Strength and Dry-Thermal Conductivity of Bio-Composites Using Novel Machine Learning Algorithms

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New Prediction Models For The Compressive Strength and Dry-Thermal Conductivity of Bio-Composites Using Novel Machine Learning Algorithms

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To appear in: Journal of Cleaner Production

Received Date: 27 August 2021

© 2022 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

19 et al., 2018; Güllü and Girisken, 2013).

Rice husk ash Gene expression

Normal strength and

185 2.1 Overview of ANN, ANFIS, and MEP techniques

(𝐶𝑆) 𝑜𝑟 (𝑇𝐶) = 𝑓(𝐼𝑗 ); 𝑇𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑠𝑓𝑒𝑟 (3)

Input layer Hidden layer Output layer

𝑂𝑖1 = 𝜇𝐴𝑖 (𝑃𝐴%); 𝑖 = 1,2, … , 𝑛 (6)

Randomized Development of Selection of Two Parents

-p Crossover and Mutation

316 3.1 Preparation of data catalog

393 Table 5. Hyper-parameters settings and structure of ANN algorithm

Structure of fuzzy Sugeno

Optimization technique Backpropagation and least square

Sub-population size 250

Variables probability 0.5

427 3.3 Statistical performance measures for evaluation of models

𝑛𝑡𝑟 − 𝑛𝑡𝑠𝑡 𝑛𝑡𝑠𝑡

470 acceptable criteria.

Expression Acceptable criteria Reference

472 4. Results and discussion

ANN predicted TC (Wm-1k-1)

ANFIS predicted TC (Wm-1k-1)

5 ANFIS Testing 0.2 ANFIS Testing

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2

499 4.2 New prediction Equations using MEP

𝑎 = √𝑃𝐴% × 𝑊𝑃𝐴 % ; 𝑏 = 𝐶𝑆𝐵 − 𝑊𝑃𝐴 %; 𝑐 = 𝜌𝑃𝐴

Proposed models Subset R R2 NSE MAE RMSE RSE RMSLE PI OF

M AETrain 0.0125 RM SETrain 0.0513 RSETrain 0.1262

546 4.3.2 ANFIS developed models

M AETrain 0.0014 RM SETrain 0.0040 RSETrain 0.0008

564 4.3.3 MEP developed models

Actual CS MEP predicted CS Absolute error

M AETrain 0.0245 RM SETrain 0.0305 RSETrain 0.0447

70% Training 30% Testing 16 16

Objective function (OF)

Objective function (OF)

652 (TC) using Equation (27) and Equation (28), respectively.

Compressive strength (MPa)

Compressive strength (MPa)

Compressive strength (MPa)

y = 208.95x-1.117 y = -7E-06x 2 + 0.0027x + 0.7336 y = -0.0019x2 + 0.0148x + 0.984

70 100 130 160 190 220 50 100 150 200

Dry thermal conductivity (Wm-1 k -1 )

0.22 0.147 0.154

Dry thermal conductivity (Wm-1 k -1 )

Dry thermal conductivity (Wm-1 k -1 )

0.08 0.12 0.05

void mepx(double *x /*inputs*/, double *outputs)

prg[31] = prg[13] / prg[26];

prg[33] = prg[29] / prg[30];

prg[35] = prg[27] - prg[28];

prg[37] = prg[32] + prg[33];

//example of utilization ...

Notations Full name

811 Elsevier, pp. 225-244.

977 cybernetics 23(3), 665-685.

1025 Elsevier, pp. 3163-3172.

1031 IETE Journal of Research 63(1), 71-79.

1081 Inference System (ANFIS). Steel Compos Struct 34(1), 155.

void mepx(double x /inputs/, double outputs)