Population growth

Estimated size of human population from 10,000 BCE2000 CE. Population growth is the change in a population over time, and can be quantified as the change in the number of individuals of any species in a population using "per unit time" for measurement. In biology, the term population growth is likely to refer to any known organism, but this article deals mostly with the application of the term to human populations in demography. In demography, population growth is used informally for the more specific term population growth rate (see below), and is often used to refer specifically to the growth of the human population of the world. Simple models of population growth include the Malthusian Growth Model and the logistic model.

Population growth 1800-2011: from 1 billion to 7 billion estimated in 31.10.2011. During the year 2011 according to estimates: [1] 135 million people will be born 57 million people will die and 78 million people will increase the world population.

Determinants of Population growth Population growth is determined by four factors, births(B), deaths(D), immigrants(I), and emigrants(E). Using a formula expressed as PB-D+I-E In other words, the population growth of a period can be calculated in two parts, natural growth of population (B-D) and mechanical growth of population (I-E),in which Mechanical growth of population is mainly affected by social factors, e.g. the advanced economies are growing faster while the backward economies are growing slowly even with negative growth. exponential population growth-dN/dT=rN Logistic population -d Population growth rate In demographics and ecology, population growth rate (PGR) is the rate at which the number of individuals in a population increases in a given time period as a fraction of the initial population. Specifically, PGR ordinarily refers to the change in population over a unit time period, often expressed as a percentage of the number of individuals in the population at the beginning of that period. This can be written as the formula:

The above formula can be expanded to: population growth rate = crude birth rate crude death rate + net immigration rate, or P/P = (B/P) - (D/P) + (I/P) - (E/P), where P is the total population, B is the number of births, D is the number of deaths, I is the number of immigrants, and E is the number of emigrants.

This formula allows for the identification of the source of population growth, whether due to natural increase or an increase in the net immigration rate. Natural increase is an increase in the native-born population, stemming from either a higher birth rate, a lower death rate, or a combination of the two. Net immigration rate is the difference between the number of immigrants and the number of emigrants. The most common way to express population growth is as a ratio, not as a rate. The change in population over a unit time period is expressed as a percentage of the population at the beginning of the time period. That is:

A positive growth ratio (or rate) indicates that the population is increasing, while a negative growth ratio indicates the population is decreasing. A growth ratio of zero indicates that there were the same number of people at the two times -- net difference between births, deaths and migration is zero. However, a growth rate may be zero even when there are significant changes in the birth rates, death rates, immigration rates, and age distribution between the two times. [2] Equivalently, percent death rate = the average number of deaths in a year for every 100 people in the total population. If the length of the time is taken smaller and smaller, the PGR approaches the logarithmic derivative of the population function P. If the population as a function of time is exponential, say P(t) = Ceat, the logarithmic derivative is a. Thus, the PGR approximates the exponent a for populations with exponential growth. A related measure is the net reproduction rate. In the absence of migration, a net reproduction rate of more than one indicates that the population of women is increasing, while a net reproduction rate less than one (sub-replacement fertility) indicates that the population of women is decreasing. [Excessive growth and decline Main articles: Overpopulation and population decline Population exceeding the carrying capacity of an area or environment is called overpopulation. It may be caused by growth in population or by reduction in capacity. Spikes in human population can cause problems such as pollution and traffic congestion, these might be resolved or worsened by technological and economic changes. Conversely, such areas may be considered "underpopulated" if the population is not large enough to maintain an economic system (see population decline). Between these two extremes sits the notion of the optimum population. Human population growth rate

Population of the world from 10,000 BCE to 2000 CE (logarithmic scale) Globally, the growth rate of the human population has been declining since peaking in 1962 and 1963 at 2.20% per annum. In 2009, the estimated annual growth rate was 1.1%.[4] The CIA World Factbook gives the world annual birthrate, mortality rate, and growth rate as 1.915%, 0.812%, and 1.092% respectively [5] The last one hundred years have seen a rapid increase in population due to medical advances and massive increase in agricultural productivity[6] made possible by the Green Revolution.[7][8][9] The actual annual growth in the number of humans fell from its peak of 88.0 million in 1989, to a low of 73.9 million in 2003, after which it rose again to 75.2 million in 2006. Since then, annual growth has declined. In 2009, the human population increased by 74.6 million, which is projected to fall steadily to about 41 million per annum in 2050, at which time the population will have increased to about 9.2

billion.[10] Each region of the globe has seen great reductions in growth rate in recent decades, though growth rates remain above 2% in some countries of the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa, and also in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Latin America.[11] Some countries experience negative population growth, especially in Eastern Europe mainly due to low fertility rates, high death rates and emigration. In Southern Africa, growth is slowing due to the high number of HIV-related deaths. Some Western Europe countries might also encounter negative population growth.[12] Japan's population began decreasing in 2005.[13] Exponential growth From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Jump to: navigation, search Exponential growth (including exponential decay) occurs when the growth rate of a mathematical function is proportional to the function's current value. In the case of a discrete domain of definition with equal intervals it is also called geometric growth or geometric decay (the function values form a geometric progression). The exponential growth model is also known as the Malthusian growth model. US scholar Albert Bartlett pointed out the difficulty to grasp ramifications of exponential growth, stating: "The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function Basic formula A quantity x depends exponentially on time t if

where the constant a is the initial value of x,

and the constant b is a positive growth factor, and is the time required for x to increase by a factor of b:

If > 0 and b > 1, then x has exponential growth. If < 0 and b > 1, or > 0 and 0 < b < 1, then x has exponential decay. Example: If a species of bacteria doubles every ten minutes, starting out with only one bacterium, how many bacteria would be present after one hour? The question implies a = 1, b = 2 and = 10 min.

After one hour, or six ten-minute intervals, there would be sixty-four bacteria.

Many pairs (b, ) of a dimensionless non-negative number b and an amount of time (a physical quantity which can be expressed as the product of a number of units and a unit of time) represent the same growth rate, with proportional to log b. For any fixed b not equal to 1 (e.g. e or 2), the growth rate is given by the non-zero time . For any non-zero time the growth rate is given by the dimensionless positive number b. Thus the law of exponential growth can be written in different but mathematically equivalent forms, by using a different base. The most common forms are the following:

where x0 expresses the initial quantity x(0). Parameters (negative in the case of exponential decay): The growth constant k is the frequency (number of times per unit time) of growing by a factor e; in finance it is also called the logarithmic return, continuously compounded return, or force of interest. The e-folding time is the time it takes to grow by a factor e. The doubling time T is the time it takes to double. The percent increase r (a dimensionless number) in a period p.

The quantities k, , and T, and for a given p also r, have a one-to-one connection given by the following equation (which can be derived by taking the natural logarithm of the above):

where k = 0 corresponds to r = 0 and to and T being infinite. If p is the unit of time the quotient t/p is simply the number of units of time. Using the notation t for the (dimensionless) number of units of time rather than the time itself, t/p can be replaced by t, but for uniformity this has been avoided here. In this case the division by p in the last formula is not a numerical division either, but converts a dimensionless number to the correct quantity including unit. A popular approximated method for calculating the doubling time from the growth rate is the rule of 70, i.e.