Canada 2008: Predictions and Poll Compilation

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www.followthevote.personallog.org
Released Polls: National
Conservative Liberal Bloc Green
Party Party NDP Quebecois Party
12/10/2008 37 27 20 9 7
11/10/2008 33 28 18 10 11
11/10/2008 33 27 22 10 9
11/10/2008 35 26 18 10 9
10/10/2008 35 28 19 9 9
10/10/2008 35 25 18 9 11
10/10/2008 32 28 22 10 8
10/10/2008 38 28 19 9 6
10/10/2008 34 26 19 10 11
09/10/2008 34 29 18 9 8
09/10/2008 35 23 21 10 10
09/10/2008 33 27 22 10 8
09/10/2008 34 26 18 9 12
09/10/2008 36 24 19 10 11
08/10/2008 33 29 20 10 7
08/10/2008 32 27 19 8 12
08/10/2008 35 24 20 10 11
07/10/2008 33 29 20 11 7
07/10/2008 35 27 18 9 10
07/10/2008 31 27 20 8 12
07/10/2008 34 25 20 10 11
06/10/2008 31 26 21 8 13
06/10/2008 34 31 18 11 6
06/10/2008 33 26 19 10 12
05/10/2008 32 25 21 8 12
05/10/2008 34 29 20 11 6
05/10/2008 35 25 19 10 10
04/10/2008 34 24 20 8 13
04/10/2008 34 30 19 10 7
04/10/2008 36 25 18 10 10
03/10/2008 40 25 19 11 6
03/10/2008 35 28 19 10 8
03/10/2008 35 22 20 9 13
02/10/2008 37 23 19 11 10

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 02/10/2008 37 22 18 9 12
02/10/2008 35 30 18 10 9
02/10/2008 36 24 19 10 11
01/10/2008 36 23 19 9 12
01/10/2008 37 26 19 10 8
01/10/2008 34 25 19 10 11
30/09/2008 36 24 17 10 11
30/09/2008 36 26 20 10 9
30/09/2008 34 25 20 10 11
29/09/2008 39 24 19 10 9
29/09/2008 36 26 18 9 11
29/09/2008 37 26 20 10 8
29/09/2008 34 27 19 9 10
28/09/2008 36 26 19 8 9
28/09/2008 36 26 20 9 9
28/09/2008 34 26 20 10 10
27/09/2008 36 27 19 9 9
27/09/2008 36 25 19 9 9
26/09/2008 39 25 19 8 9
26/09/2008 38 23 19 9 9
25/09/2008 40 21 21 10 7
25/09/2008 39 23 18 9 11
25/09/2008 39 24 19 9 8
25/09/2008 37 24 18 9 10
25/09/2008 35 25 20 10 10
24/09/2008 40 25 19 9 8
24/09/2008 36 25 19 10 11
24/09/2008 36 23 17 9 12
23/09/2008 37 24 19 9 11
23/09/2008 37 24 16 9 12
23/09/2008 37 26 21 9 7
22/09/2008 36 25 19 8 12
22/09/2008 38 27 21 8 6
22/09/2008 37 24 17 8 11
21/09/2008 35 30 22 7 6
21/09/2008 37 24 19 8 12
21/09/2008 38 23 17 8 12
20/09/2008 36 31 20 7 7
20/09/2008 39 23 17 8 11
19/09/2008 38 29 18 7 7
19/09/2008 38 23 17 8 12
18/09/2008 38 24 19 9 10
18/09/2008 40 27 15 8 10

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 18/09/2008 36 25 18 8 13
18/09/2008 39 28 18 7 7
18/09/2008 38 25 15 8 12
17/09/2008 39 30 18 7 6
17/09/2008 36 27 16 8 11
17/09/2008 38 24 18 8 12
16/09/2008 38 31 17 7 7
16/09/2008 38 28 15 8 10
15/09/2008 38 31 17 6 8
15/09/2008 38 23 19 9 11
15/09/2008 42 23 16 7 10
15/09/2008 38 27 16 8 10
14/09/2008 35 25 19 9 11
14/09/2008 37 31 18 6 9
14/09/2008 38 27 16 8 9
13/09/2008 38 30 17 6 9
13/09/2008 40 26 15 8 9
12/09/2008 39 30 15 9 9
12/09/2008 39 23 18 9 10
11/09/2008 36 26 19 8 11
11/09/2008 38 29 13 8 11
11/09/2008 38 31 14 9 9
11/09/2008 41 26 14 8 9
10/09/2008 37 32 13 9 9
09/09/2008 38 24 21 9 7
09/09/2008 37 26 19 8 10
08/09/2008 36 28 15 9 9

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Ontario (from October 1st)

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 Conservative Liberal Green
ONTARIO Party Party NDP Party Other
13/10/2008 34% 36% 17% 13% -
12/10/2008 33% 35% 26% 6%
10/10/2008 35% 32% 22% 11% -
10/10/2008 35% 35% 17% 13% -
09/10/2008 31% 33% 21% 14% -
09/10/2008 37% 31% 19% 13% -
08/10/2008 28% 32% 24% 15% -
08/10/2008 36% 32% 20% 13% -
07/10/2008 26% 34% 24% 15% -
07/10/2008 35% 31% 20% 14% -
06/10/2008 26% 34% 24% 15% -
06/10/2008 33% 33% 20% 15% -
05/10/2008 27% 33% 24% 14% -
05/10/2008 36% 32% 19% 13% -
04/10/2008 30% 34% 20% 15% -
03/10/2008 41% 35% 18% 6% 0%
03/10/2008 31% 31% 20% 17% -
02/10/2008 40% 26% 21% 13% 1%
02/10/2008 34% 31% 17% 17% -
02/10/2008 38% 30% 20% 13% -
01/10/2008 37% 30% 15% 16% -
01/10/2008 36% 32% 19% 12% -
ELECTION 06 35.1% 39.9% 19.4% 4.7% 0.9%

Quebec (from October 1st)

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 Bloc
Conservat Liberal Quebecoi Green
QUEBEC ive Party Party NDP s Party Other
13/10/2008 24% 17% 12% 41% 5% -
12/10/2008 19% 22% 13% 40% 6%
10/10/2008 23% 21% 8% 41% 5% -
10/10/2008 20% 19% 14% 40% 6% -
09/10/2008 24% 22% 7% 40% 5% -
09/10/2008 18% 20% 14% 41% 8% -
08/10/2008 22% 29% 8% 36% 4% -
08/10/2008 17% 21% 15% 41% 6% -
07/10/2008 21% 28% 10% 36% 5% -
07/10/2008 17% 21% 15% 40% 7% -
06/10/2008 19% 28% 12% 33% 8% -
06/10/2008 17% 21% 15% 42% 5% -
05/10/2008 18% 27% 12% 33% 8% -
05/10/2008 21% 19% 13% 36% 10% -
04/10/2008 21% 22% 12% 33% 9% -
03/10/2008 28% 13% 14% 40% 5% 0%
03/10/2008 22% 17% 13% 37% 8% -
02/10/2008 18% 24% 11% 40% 6% 0%
02/10/2008 27% 17% 11% 38% 5% -
02/10/2008 20% 20% 12% 40% 7% -
01/10/2008 27% 17% 11% 37% 6% -
01/10/2008 21% 19% 13% 40% 8% -
ELECTION 06 24.6% 20.7% 7.5% 42.1% 4.0% 1.2%

Atlantic (from October 1st)

ATLANTIC Conservative Liberal NDP Green Other

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 Party Party Party
13/10/2008 23% 34% 32% 10% -
12/10/2008 25% 41% 24% 11% -
10/10/2008 24% 41% 24% 10% -
10/10/2008 30% 32% 29% 9% -
09/10/2008 31% 39% 22% 8% -
09/10/2008 32% 29% 30% 9% -
08/10/2008 34% 34% 27% 5% -
08/10/2008 31% 30% 30% 9% -
07/10/2008 31% 32% 29% 6% -
07/10/2008 30% 32% 29% 9% -
06/10/2008 32% 24% 31% 11% -
06/10/2008 31% 37% 22% 10% -
05/10/2008 29% 22% 34% 13% -
05/10/2008 31% 36% 23% 10% -
04/10/2008 29% 25% 30% 14% -
03/10/2008 34% 41% 20% 2% 3%
03/10/2008 31% 28% 27% 12% -
02/10/2008 38% 30% 21% 9% 2%
02/10/2008 34% 33% 24% 6% -
02/10/2008 39% 28% 21% 12% -
01/10/2008 29% 35% 28% 5% -
01/10/2008 33% 33% 25% 9% -
ELECTION 06 34.5% 39.9% 22.7% 2.3% 0.6%

Prairies (from October 1st)

Conservative Liberal Green
PRAIRIES Party Party NDP Party Other

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 13/10/2008 43% 18% 31% 7% -
10/10/2008 45% 17% 31% 7% -
09/10/2008 46% 18% 30% 6% -
08/10/2008 44% 21% 25% 9% -
07/10/2008 40% 23% 29% 9% -
06/10/2008 47% 20% 24% 10% -
05/10/2008 50% 19% 18% 13% -
03/10/2008 51% 14% 30% 5% 0%
02/10/2008 45% 23% 27% 6% 0%
02/10/2008 49% 19% 22% 10% -
01/10/2008 47% 22% 21% 10% -
ELECTION
06 45.7% 24.3% 24.7% 3.7% 1.6%

Alberta (from October 1st)

Conservative Liberal Green
ALBERTA Party Party NDP Party Other
13/10/2008 56% 16% 16% 12% -
10/10/2008 60% 17% 16% 10% -
09/10/2008 62% 18% 13% 12% -
08/10/2008 66% 21% 13% 11% -
07/10/2008 63% 23% 13% 11% -
06/10/2008 59% 20% 15% 11% -
05/10/2008 61% 19% 15% 7% -
03/10/2008 60% 14% 12% 10% 0%
02/10/2008 66% 23% 17% 10% 1%
02/10/2008 59% 19% 14% 10% -
01/10/2008 51% 22% 19% 13% -
ELECTION
06 65.0% 15.3% 11.7% 6.6% 1.4%

British Columbia (from October 1st)

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 Conservative Liberal Green
B.C. Party Party NDP Party Other
13/10/2008 39% 24% 22% 15% -
10/10/2008 40% 18% 21% 21% -
10/10/2008 36% 24% 23% 17% -
09/10/2008 43% 18% 21% 17% -
09/10/2008 40% 19% 25% 16% -
08/10/2008 47% 16% 19% 16% -
08/10/2008 42% 19% 26% 13% -
07/10/2008 38% 16% 24% 20% -
07/10/2008 42% 20% 25% 13% -
06/10/2008 43% 14% 25% 16% -
06/10/2008 38% 20% 26% 16% -
05/10/2008 46% 15% 22% 16% -
05/10/2008 32% 21% 32% 15% -
04/10/2008 44% 15% 24% 16% -
03/10/2008 37% 20% 31% 11% 1%
03/10/2008 46% 15% 25% 14% -
02/10/2008 40% 21% 24% 14% 1%
02/10/2008 44% 15% 25% 16% -
02/10/2008 34% 24% 30% 13% -
01/10/2008 37% 18% 27% 18% -
01/10/2008 36% 22% 29% 14% -
ELECTION
06 37.3% 27.6% 28.6% 5.3% 1.2%

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Predictions
The following predictions are based on a compilation of several polls, and
adjustments due to biases of certain polls. Thus the predictions that Following the
Vote gives for the 2008 Canadian Federal election are as follows (the seat-by-seat
predictions are after). Based on predictions below, the change shall be determined
by the swing from one party to another compared to the 2006 results.

NATION Conservative Liberal ND Bloc Green

AL Party Party P Quebecois Party
PREDICT
ION 34.4 27.2 20.1 9.6 8.7

ONTARI Conservative Liberal ND Green

O Party Party P Party
PREDICT
ION 34.2 34.6 21.8 9.4

Conservative Liberal ND Bloc Green

QUEBEC Party Party P Quebecois Party
PREDICT
ION 22.0 20.4 11.7 40.7 5.2

ATLANTI Conservative Liberal ND Green

C Party Party P Party
PREDICT
ION 24.2 39.5 26.7 9.6

PRAIRIE Conservative Liberal ND Green

S Party Party P Party
PREDICT
ION 44.0 18.1 30.9 7.0

Conservative Liberal ND Green

ALBERTA Party Party P Party
PREDICT
ION 60.3 15.7 14.9 9.1

Conservative Liberal ND Green

B.C. Party Party P Party
PREDICT
ION 37.8 22.9 22.1 17.2

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Seats
Conservative Liberal ND Bloc Green
NATIONAL Party Party P Quebecois Party Other
SEATS
PREDICTION 133 84 40 50 0 1

Conservative Liberal ND Green

ONTARIO Party Party P Party
SEATS
PREDICTION 45 42 19 0

Conservative Liberal ND Bloc Green

QUEBEC Party Party P Quebecois Party Other
SEATS
PREDICTION 11 12 1 50 0 1

Conservative Liberal ND Green

ATLANTIC Party Party P Party
SEATS
PREDICTION 6 21 5 0

Conservative Liberal ND Green

PRAIRIES Party Party P Party
SEATS
PREDICTION 21 3 4 0

Conservative Liberal ND Green

ALBERTA Party Party P Party
SEATS
PREDICTION 28 0 0 0

Conservative Liberal ND Green

B.C. Party Party P Party
SEATS
PREDICTION 22 4 10 0

Conservative Liberal ND Green

TERRITORIES Party Party P Party
SEATS
PREDICTION 0 2 1 0

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 TERRITORIES
TERRITORIES Liberal Conservative NDP Green Other Results
Yukon 45% 21% 26% 8% - Lib Hold
Western Arctic 32% 18% 47% 3% - NDP Hold
Nunavut 37% 28% 19% 8% 8% Lib Hold

BRITISH COLUMBIA
Liber Conservat Gree Othe
BRITISH COLUMBIA al ive NDP n r Result
NDP
British Columbia Southern Interior 15% 20% 43% 22% 0% Hold
Cons
Cariboo—Prince George 19% 45% 18% 17% 1% Hold
Cons
Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo 20% 40% 25% 15% - Hold
Cons
Kelowna—Lake Country 21% 48% 11% 19% 0% Hold
Cons
Kootenay—Columbia 9% 55% 20% 16% 0% Hold
Cons
Okanagan—Coquihalla 18% 50% 13% 19% - Hold
Cons
Okanagan—Shuswap 19% 45% 19% 14% 1% Hold
Cons
Prince George—Peace River 12% 61% 9% 16% 3% Hold
NDP
Skeena—Bulkley Valley 9% 33% 42% 14% 2% Hold
Cons
Abbotsford 9% 64% 10% 16% 1% Hold
Cons
Chilliwack—Fraser Canyon 13% 56% 15% 14% 2% Hold
Cons
Delta—Richmond East 28% 48% 10% 14% - Hold
Cons
Fleetwood—Port Kells 28% 34% 19% 12% 7% Hold
Cons
Langley 19% 53% 12% 16% 0% Hold
Cons
Newton—North Delta 30% 31% 28% 11% 0% Gain
Cons
Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge—Mission 16% 40% 29% 14% 1% Hold
Cons
Richmond 38% 40% 9% 13% - Gain
Cons
South Surrey—White Rock—Cloverdale 27% 48% 12% 12% 1% Hold
Surrey North 16% 28% 40% 12% 4% NDP

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 Hold
NDP
Burnaby—Douglas 29% 28% 30% 13% 0% Hold
NDP
Burnaby—New Westminster 26% 29% 33% 12% - Hold
NDP
New Westminster—Coquitlam 20% 32% 33% 15% 0% Hold
Lib
North Vancouver 38% 37% 8% 17% 0% Hold
Cons
Port Moody—Westwood—Port Coquitlam 23% 41% 17% 13% 5% Hold
Lib
Vancouver Centre 40% 20% 23% 15% 1% Hold
NDP
Vancouver East 19% 14% 52% 14% 1% Hold
Lib
Vancouver Kingsway 39% 19% 28% 13% 1% Hold
Cons
Vancouver Quadra 32% 36% 8% 23% 1% Gain
Lib
Vancouver South 44% 27% 15% 13% 0% Hold
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Cons
Country 34% 36% 14% 16% 0% Gain
NDP
Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca 29% 25% 30% 16% 0% Gain
Cons
Nanaimo—Alberni 15% 42% 27% 14% 2% Hold
NDP
Nanaimo—Cowichan 11% 32% 41% 15% 1% Hold
Cons
Saanich—Gulf Islands 22% 36% 21% 21% 0% Hold
Cons
Vancouver Island North 9% 42% 36% 13% - Gain
NDP
Victoria 24% 25% 32% 18% 1% Hold

ALBERTA
Liber Conservati Gree Othe
ALBERTA al ve NDP n r Result
Cons
Crowfoot 5% 77% 9% 9% - Hold
Cons
Fort McMurray—Athabasca 14% 59% 16% 10% 1% Hold
Cons
Lethbridge 10% 62% 16% 8% 4% Hold
Cons
Macleod 9% 70% 9% 9% 3% Hold
Cons
Medicine Hat 7% 74% 10% 9% - Hold

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 Cons
Peace River 8% 51% 13% 6% 22% Hold
Cons
Red Deer 8% 70% 12% 10% - Hold
Cons
Vegreville—Wainwright 6% 72% 11% 10% 1% Hold
Cons
Westlock—St. Paul 14% 62% 12% 10% 2% Hold
Cons
Wetaskiwin 8% 70% 11% 11% - Hold
Cons
Wild Rose 9% 66% 9% 16% - Hold
Cons
Yellowhead 8% 65% 13% 12% 2% Hold
Cons
Edmonton Centre 38% 40% 13% 8% 1% Hold
Cons
Edmonton East 26% 44% 21% 9% - Hold
Cons
Edmonton-Leduc 18% 55% 16% 11% - Hold
Edmonton—Mill Woods— Cons
Beaumont 20% 54% 17% 8% 1% Hold
Cons
Edmonton—St. Albert 19% 52% 16% 13% - Hold
Cons
Edmonton—Sherwood Park 13% 58% 16% 13% - Hold
Cons
Edmonton—Spruce Grove 16% 60% 12% 12% - Hold
Cons
Edmonton—Strathcona 16% 38% 37% 8% 1% Hold
Cons
Calgary Centre 18% 50% 15% 17% - Hold
Cons
Calgary Centre-North 13% 51% 19% 15% 2% Hold
Cons
Calgary East 13% 62% 13% 11% 1% Hold
Cons
Calgary Northeast 21% 60% 10% 8% 1% Hold
Cons
Calgary-Nose Hill 16% 62% 10% 12% - Hold
Cons
Calgary Southeast 10% 70% 10% 10% - Hold
Cons
Calgary Southwest 10% 68% 10% 11% 1% Hold
Cons
Calgary West 21% 53% 12% 13% 1% Hold

PRAIRIES

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 Liber Conservati Gree Othe
SASKATCHEWAN al ve NDP n r Result
Cons
Cypress Hills—Grasslands 6% 65% 23% 6% - Hold
Cons
Palliser 13% 43% 38% 6% 0% Hold
Cons
Regina—Lumsden—Lake Centre 21% 41% 34% 4% - Hold
NDP
Regina—Qu'Appelle 17% 38% 39% 6% - Gain
Cons
Souris—Moose Mountain 13% 61% 20% 6% - Hold
Wascana 46% 28% 21% 5% - Lib Hold
Cons
Yorkton—Melville 7% 61% 25% 6% 1% Hold
Cons
Battlefords—Lloydminster 7% 53% 21% 3% 15% Hold
Cons
Blackstrap 11% 46% 37% 5% 1% Hold
Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill Cons
River 25% 46% 24% 5% - Hold
Cons
Prince Albert 13% 53% 30% 4% - Hold
Cons
Saskatoon—Humboldt 11% 47% 36% 5% 1% Hold
Cons
Saskatoon—Rosetown—Biggar 6% 44% 45% 4% 1% Hold
Cons
Saskatoon—Wanuskewin 17% 47% 28% 7% 1% Hold
Liber Conservati Gree Othe
MANITOBA al ve NDP n r Result
Cons
Brandon—Souris 12% 53% 26% 5% 3% Hold
Churchill 35% 10% 34% 2% 18% Lib Hold
Cons
Dauphin—Swan River—Marquette 12% 58% 24% 4% 1% Hold
Cons
Portage—Lisgar 5% 68% 17% 5% 3% Hold
Cons
Provencher 9% 64% 20% 5% - Hold
Cons
Selkirk—Interlake 4% 47% 44% 3% 1% Hold
Cons
Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia 30% 46% 20% 4% - Hold
NDP
Elmwood—Transcona 6% 30% 57% 4% 1% Hold
Cons
Kildonan—St. Paul 28% 42% 26% 3% 1% Hold
Saint Boniface 32% 33% 28% 4% 1% Cons

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 Gain
NDP
Winnipeg Centre 18% 18% 54% 7% 1% Hold
NDP
Winnipeg North 15% 17% 63% 3% 1% Hold
Cons
Winnipeg South 35% 39% 19% 3% 1% Hold
Winnipeg South Centre 33% 29% 28% 4% 3% Lib Hold
ONTARIO
Liber Conservati Gree Othe
ONTARIO al ve NDP n r Result
Cons
Carleton—Mississippi Mills 19% 55% 15% 10% 1% Hold
Cons
Nepean—Carleton 23% 54% 14% 9% - Hold
NDP
Ottawa Centre 23% 21% 39% 16% 1% Hold
Cons
Ottawa—Orléans 34% 40% 17% 9% 0% Hold
Ottawa South 39% 36% 15% 10% 0% Lib Hold
Ottawa—Vanier 37% 28% 25% 9% 1% Lib Hold
Cons
Ottawa West—Nepean 29% 42% 18% 9% 2% Hold
Cons
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell 36% 41% 15% 8% - Hold
Kingston and the Islands 41% 25% 22% 11% 1% Lib Hold
Cons
Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington 20% 50% 18% 9% 3% Hold
Cons
Leeds—Grenville 19% 54% 17% 10% - Hold
Cons
Prince Edward—Hastings 27% 48% 18% 6% 1% Hold
Cons
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke 19% 57% 15% 6% 3% Hold
Cons
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry 22% 54% 15% 8% 1% Hold
Cons
Barrie 34% 41% 15% 10% - Hold
Cons
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound 23% 47% 13% 17% - Hold
Cons
Dufferin—Caledon 25% 47% 14% 14% - Hold
Cons
Durham 25% 46% 20% 8% 1% Hold
Cons
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock 24% 48% 19% 9% - Hold
Newmarket-Aurora 41% 37% 12% 9% 1% Lib Hold
Northumberland—Quinte West 31% 40% 21% 8% - Cons

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 Hold
Cons
Peterborough 27% 35% 28% 9% 1% Hold
Cons
Simcoe—Grey 25% 49% 13% 10% 3% Hold
Cons
Simcoe North 33% 39% 17% 10% 1% Hold
Cons
York—Simcoe 26% 47% 15% 11% 1% Hold
Ajax—Pickering 45% 32% 15% 7% 1% Lib Hold
Markham—Unionville 57% 26% 11% 5% 1% Lib Hold
Oak Ridges—Markham 42% 38% 12% 8% - Lib Hold
Cons
Oshawa 19% 38% 35% 8% 0% Hold
Pickering—Scarborough East 48% 31% 15% 6% - Lib Hold
Richmond Hill 49% 31% 12% 8% - Lib Hold
Pickering—Scarborough East 48% 33% 10% 7% 2% Lib Hold
Vaughan 55% 25% 11% 8% 1% Lib Hold
Cons
Whitby-Oshawa 34% 43% 15% 7% 1% Hold
Don Valley East 49% 28% 15% 8% - Lib Hold
Etobicoke Centre 47% 32% 13% 7% 1% Lib Hold
Etobicoke—Lakeshore 39% 34% 18% 8% 1% Lib Hold
Etobicoke North 57% 21% 13% 6% 3% Lib Hold
Scarborough—Agincourt 58% 23% 14% 5% - Lib Hold
Scarborough Centre 50% 26% 16% 8% - Lib Hold
Scarborough—Guildwood 48% 28% 16% 7% 1% Lib Hold
Scarborough—Rouge River 59% 20% 17% 3% 1% Lib Hold
Scarborough Southwest 43% 23% 25% 8% 1% Lib Hold
Willowdale 54% 29% 7% 10% - Lib Hold
York Centre 49% 29% 17% 5% - Lib Hold
York West 59% 18% 16% 6% 1% Lib Hold
NDP
Beaches—East York 35% 17% 37% 10% 1% Gain
Davenport 47% 10% 36% 6% 1% Lib Hold
Don Valley West 48% 32% 11% 8% 1% Lib Hold
Eglinton—Lawrence 48% 29% 13% 10% 0% Lib Hold
NDP
Parkdale—High Park 30% 16% 43% 10% 1% Hold
St. Paul's 45% 25% 21% 9% - Lib Hold
Toronto Centre 54% 12% 16% 17% 1% Lib Hold
NDP
Toronto—Danforth 29% 9% 51% 11% 0% Hold
NDP
Trinity—Spadina 35% 8% 48% 8% 1% Hold

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York South—Weston 52% 16% 23% 9% 0% Lib Hold
Bramalea—Gore—Malton 46% 32% 16% 5% 1% Lib Hold
Brampton—Springdale 42% 30% 20% 8% 0% Lib Hold
Brampton West 44% 35% 13% 8% - Lib Hold
Mississauga—Brampton South 49% 30% 13% 7% 1% Lib Hold
Mississauga East—Cooksville 47% 30% 13% 8% 2% Lib Hold
Mississauga—Erindale 40% 38% 14% 7% 1% Lib Hold
Cons
Mississauga South 38% 40% 13% 9% 0% Gain
Mississauga—Streetsville 41% 34% 15% 9% 1% Lib Hold
Cons
Oakville 39% 42% 12% 7% - Gain
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough— Cons
Westdale 30% 38% 23% 8% 1% Hold
Cons
Burlington 34% 42% 14% 10% - Hold
Cons
Halton 36% 43% 11% 10% - Hold
NDP
Hamilton Centre 18% 19% 53% 9% 1% Hold
NDP
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek 30% 24% 38% 7% 1% Hold
NDP
Hamilton Mountain 27% 26% 39% 7% 1% Hold
Cons
Niagara Falls 30% 39% 23% 8% - Hold
Cons
Niagara West—Glanbrook 26% 46% 18% 8% 2% Hold
Cons
St. Catherines 32% 37% 23% 7% 1% Hold
Welland 31% 28% 33% 7% 1% NDP
Gain
Cons
Brant 32% 35% 23% 9% 1% Gain
Cons
Cambridge 29% 43% 19% 9% 0% Hold
Guelph 33% 29% 25% 12% 1% Lib Hold
Cons
Haldimand—Norfolk 29% 47% 15% 8% 1% Hold
Cons
Huron—Bruce 35% 37% 18% 8% 2% Gain
Kitchener Centre 38% 31% 20% 10% 1% Lib Hold
Cons
Kitchener—Conestoga 34% 40% 17% 9% - Hold
Kitchener—Waterloo 42% 27% 20% 10% 1% Lib Hold
Cons
Oxford 23% 46% 20% 6% 5% Hold

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 Cons
Perth—Wellington 21% 45% 21% 10% 3% Hold
Cons
Wellington—Halton Hills 33% 42% 15% 8% 2% Hold
Cons
Chatham-Kent—Essex 26% 42% 24% 8% - Hold
Cons
Elgin—Middlesex—London 21% 45% 21% 10% 3% Hold
Cons
Essex 29% 39% 25% 7% 0% Hold
Cons
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex 26% 45% 19% 8% 2% Hold
NDP
London—Fanshawe 29% 26% 38% 7% - Hold
London North Centre 30% 24% 16% 29% 1% Lib Hold
Cons
London West 33% 35% 24% 8% 0% Gain
Cons
Sarnia—Lambton 28% 40% 22% 7% 3% Hold
NDP
Windsor—Tecumseh 21% 24% 47% 8% 0% Hold
NDP
Windsor West 20% 19% 51% 8% 2% Hold
NDP
Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing 33% 22% 37% 7% 1% Gain
NDP
Kenora 32% 30% 33% 5% - Gain
NDP
Nickel Belt 38% 12% 42% 5% 3% Gain
Nipissing—Timiskaming 40% 34% 20% 6% - Lib Hold
Cons
Parry Sound—Muskoka 35% 39% 15% 11% - Hold
NDP
Sault Ste. Marie 29% 23% 41% 7% 1% Hold
Sudbury 37% 21% 35% 5% 2% Lib Hold
NDP
Thunder Bay—Rainy River 30% 26% 36% 7% 1% Gain
NDP
Thunder Bay—Superior North 31% 21% 37% 10% 1% Gain
NDP
Timmins—James Bay 29% 13% 53% 5% - Hold

QUEBEC
Bloc Conservat Gree Othe
QUEBEC Quebecois Liberal ive NDP n r Result
Bloc
Gaspésie—Îles-de-la-Madeleine 41% 19% 30% 7% 3% - Hold
Haute-Gaspésie—La Mitis—Matane— Bloc
Matapédia 45% 13% 27% 10% 3% 2% Hold

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 Cons
Lévis—Bellechasse 28% 8% 44% 9% 5% 6% Hold
Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska— Bloc
Rivière-du-Loup 51% 13% 23% 9% 4% - Hold
Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata— Bloc
Les Basques 45% 19% 19% 14% 3% - Hold
Bloc
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord 38% 28% 22% 9% 3% - Hold
Cons
Jonquière—Alma 37% 3% 50% 8% 2% - Hold
Bloc
Manicouagan 50% 13% 16% 17% 3% 1% Hold
Montmorency—Charlevoix—Haute- Bloc
Côte-Nord 48% 9% 30% 10% 3% - Hold
Cons
Roberval—Lac-Saint-Jean 25% 10% 56% 6% 3% - Hold
Cons
Beauport—Limoilou 36% 10% 37% 12% 5% 0% Hold
Cons
Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles 37% 8% 38% 10% 4% 3% Hold
Cons
Louis-Hébert 32% 15% 33% 12% 5% 3% Hold
Cons
Louis-Saint-Laurent 23% 6% 55% 10% 3% 3% Hold
Bloc
Québec 40% 11% 27% 13% 6% 3% Hold
Bloc
Bas-Richelieu—Nicolet—Bécancour 54% 12% 21% 9% 4% - Hold
Bloc
Berthier—Maskinongé 48% 10% 28% 10% 4% - Hold
Bloc
Joliette 53% 10% 24% 9% 4% - Hold
Cons
Lotbinière—Chutes-de-la-Chaudière 28% 5% 52% 11% 4% - Hold
Bloc
Montcalm 61% 8% 16% 11% 4% - Hold
Ind
Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier 24% 5% 21% 8% 3% 39% Hold
Bloc
Repentigny 64% 6% 16% 10% 3% 1% Hold
Bloc
Saint-Maurice—Champlain 43% 12% 31% 10% 4% - Hold
Bloc
Trois-Rivières 45% 11% 29% 11% 3% 1% Hold
Cons
Beauce 18% 8% 64% 7% 3% - Hold
Bloc
Brome—Missisquoi 35% 28% 17% 10% 6% 4% Hold
Compton—Stanstead 41% 21% 22% 10% 6% - Bloc

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 Hold
Bloc
Drummond 48% 16% 19% 10% 7% - Hold
Cons
Mégantic—L'Érable 32% 10% 48% 8% 3% - Hold
Bloc
Richmond—Arthabaska 47% 10% 29% 9% 6% - Hold
Bloc
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot 40% 7% 36% 12% 4% 1% Hold
Bloc
Shefford 42% 23% 22% 9% 4% - Hold
Bloc
Sherbrooke 51% 12% 19% 13% 4% 1% Hold
Bloc
Beauharnois—Salaberry 46% 15% 25% 11% 3% - Hold
Bloc
Brossard—La Prairie 36% 35% 14% 12% 3% 0% Hold
Bloc
Chambly—Borduas 54% 11% 19% 12% 4% - Hold
Bloc
Châteauguay—Saint-Constant 49% 20% 17% 9% 5% - Hold
Bloc
Longueuil—Pierre-Boucher 54% 13% 16% 12% 4% 1% Hold
Bloc
Saint-Bruno—Saint-Hubert 49% 16% 18% 11% 5% 1% Hold
Bloc
Saint-Jean 52% 12% 19% 11% 6% - Hold
Bloc
Saint-Lambert 43% 23% 18% 11% 5% 0% Hold
Bloc
Vaudreuil—Soulanges 41% 28% 16% 10% 5% - Hold
Bloc
Verchères—Les Patriotes 56% 9% 20% 10% 5% - Hold
Bloc
Hochelaga 55% 17% 9% 13% 5% 1% Hold
Lib
Honoré-Mercier 34% 38% 16% 9% 3% 0% Hold
Bloc
La Pointe-de-l'Île 59% 14% 12% 11% 4% - Hold
Bloc
Laurier—Sainte-Marie 54% 12% 4% 20% 8% 2% Hold
Bloc
Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie 54% 15% 7% 16% 7% 1% Hold
Bloc
Jeanne-Le Ber 39% 34% 9% 13% 5% - Hold
Lib
Lac-Saint-Louis 7% 47% 25% 14% 7% - Hold
Lib
LaSalle—Émard 28% 48% 10% 10% 3% 1% Hold

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 Lib
Mount Royal 5% 64% 16% 11% 4% 0% Hold
Lib
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Lachine 18% 44% 14% 16% 6% 0% Hold
NDP
Outremont 10% 28% 7% 52% 2% 1% Hold
Lib
Pierrefonds—Dollard 11% 51% 20% 12% 6% 0% Hold
Lib
Saint-Laurent—Cartierville 14% 60% 11% 11% 4% 0% Hold
Lib
Westmount—Ville-Marie 11% 46% 15% 19% 9% 0% Hold
Bloc
Ahuntsic 38% 37% 10% 11% 4% - Hold
Bloc
Alfred-Pellan 42% 28% 16% 11% 3% - Hold
Lib
Bourassa 31% 43% 14% 9% 3% 0% Hold
Bloc
Laval 43% 26% 16% 12% 3% - Hold
Lib
Laval—Les Îles 31% 39% 15% 11% 4% 0% Hold
Bloc
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin 50% 16% 18% 11% 5% - Hold
Bloc
Papineau 40% 39% 6% 11% 4% 0% Hold
Lib
Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel 18% 56% 12% 11% 3% - Hold
Bloc
Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou 45% 22% 19% 10% 4% - Hold
Bloc
Abitibi—Témiscamingue 51% 14% 20% 12% 3% - Hold
Bloc
Argenteuil—Papineau—Mirabel 50% 14% 21% 11% 5% - Hold
Bloc
Gatineau 38% 31% 14% 14% 3% - Hold
Lib
Hull—Aylmer 27% 32% 15% 20% 6% 0% Hold
Bloc
Laurentides—Labelle 53% 15% 17% 10% 5% - Hold
Cons
Pontiac 28% 24% 32% 13% 3% 0% Hold
Bloc
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles 52% 13% 19% 11% 5% - Hold
Bloc
Rivière-du-Nord 57% 9% 18% 11% 5% - Hold
Bloc
Terrebonne—Blainville 58% 9% 18% 11% 4% - Hold

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 ATLANTIC
Liber Conservati Gree Othe
NEW BRUNSWICK al ve NDP n r Result
NDP
Acadie—Bathurst 31% 7% 54% 8% 0% Hold
Beauséjour 45% 22% 21% 10% 1% Lib Hold
Fredericton 41% 25% 25% 9% 0% Lib Hold
Cons
Fundy Royal 26% 38% 25% 11% - Hold
Madawaska—Restigouche 38% 25% 27% 10% - Lib Hold
Miramichi 41% 24% 21% 9% 5% Lib Hold
Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe 47% 20% 23% 10% 0% Lib Hold
Cons
New Brunswick Southwest 25% 45% 20% 10% - Hold
Saint John 42% 29% 20% 9% - Lib Hold
Tobique—Mactaquac 42% 34% 15% 9% - Lib Gain
Liber Conservati Gree Othe
NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR al ve NDP n r Result
Cons
Avalon 38% 42% 13% 7% - Hold
Bonavista—Gander—Grand Falls—Windsor 51% 30% 11% 8% - Lib Hold
Humber—St. Barbe—Baie Verte 53% 21% 19% 7% - Lib Hold
Labrador 49% 30% 13% 8% - Lib Hold
Random—Burin—St. George's 45% 31% 16% 8% - Lib Hold
Cons
St. John's East 34% 37% 22% 7% - Hold
Cons
St. John's South—Mount Pearl 32% 35% 26% 7% - Hold
Liber Conservati Gree Othe
NOVA SCOTIA al ve NDP n r Result
Cape Breton—Canso 52% 14% 24% 10% - Lib Hold
NDP
Central Nova 24% 31% 37% 8% 0% Gain
Cumberland—Colchester—Musquodoboit Cons
Valley 23% 42% 25% 10% 1% Hold
Dartmouth—Cole Harbour 42% 13% 37% 8% 0% Lib Hold
NDP
Halifax 30% 8% 51% 11% 0% Hold
Halifax West 49% 13% 28% 10% - Lib Hold
Kings—Hants 45% 22% 23% 9% 1% Lib Hold
NDP
Sackville—Eastern Shore 23% 12% 57% 8% - Hold
NDP
South Shore—St. Margaret's 26% 28% 33% 10% 3% Gain
Sydney—Victoria 49% 8% 33% 10% - Lib Hold
West Nova 37% 29% 23% 9% 2% Lib Hold

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 Liber Conservati Gree Othe
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND al ve NDP n r Result
Cardigan 56% 24% 11% 3% - Lib Hold
Charlottetown 49% 24% 15% 3% 2% Lib Hold
Egmont 53% 21% 14% 5% 1% Lib Hold
Malpeque 49% 25% 14% 5% - Lib Hold

According to the above predictions, things wouldn’t change too much.

Harper’s Conservatives would gain a paltry 9 seats boosting them from 124 to 133
seats. Meanwhile Dion’s Liberals would fall down from 103 to 84 (ouch, -19). The
NDP would be up to their second highest number of seats in parliament with 40
seats, an increase of 11. The Bloc would lose one single seat, and May’s Green Party
would gain a large number of votes, but due to the FPTP (First Past the Post) system
they would win no seats. The single independent remains in Quebec.

Brought to you by Following the Vote. Visit our site at

www.followthevote.personallog.org.

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