First Principles in Scrum

Note to Reader 3
Preface 4
How Scrum Emerged From First Principles 6

Introduc)on 6
The FBI's Triumph and the Path to Empiricism 6
Taiichi Ohno's Sage Advice and the Pursuit of Con)nuous Improvement 6
Scrum's Origin in Lean and the Dance of Complex Adap)ve Systems 7
Gödel's Theorem and Computa)onal Irreducibility: Unraveling Certainty 7
The Cathedral Unveiled 7
The FBI's Triumph and the Path to Empiricism 7
Taiichi Ohno and the Pursuit of Con)nuous Improvement 8
Godel's Theorem and the Power of Empiricism in Scrum 9
Computa)onal Irreducibility and the Emergence of Scrum 10
From Biology to Scrum: The Evolu)onary Paradigm 12
The Transforma)ve Power of Scrum: Shaping the Future of Product Development 13
The Paradox of InducAve vs DeducAve Reasoning 18

Personal Prologue 18
Abstract 19
Introduc)on 19
The Paradox Explored 19
Conclusion 21
References 21
Responding to Change 22
The Next Best Step and ComputaAonal Irreducibility 24

The Complexity and Importance of Priori)za)on in Scrum 24
The Next Best Step: A Cogni)ve Perspec)ve, Quantum Mechanics, and the Power of Observa)on 25
Game Theory and Decision Making in Scrum 25
Driving System Evolu)on via Punctuated Equilibrium and Complex Adap)ve Systems 26
The Role of AI: A ChatGPT Analogy and the Emergence of Exper)se 26
Leveraging AI for Decision Making 26
The Human Element in Scrum Decision Making 27
Challenges and Poten)al Solu)ons 27
Real-World Applica)ons and Case Studies 27
Future Implica)ons: Welcoming AI onto the Scrum Team 28
First Principles in Scrum
The Secret Sauce of Scrum: Punctuated Equilibrium 30
Abstract 30
Introduc)on 30
The Secret Sauce of Scrum: Empirical Process Control and Punctuated Equilibrium 30
The Next Best Step: A Legacy from the First Scrum Team 31
The Role of AI in Iden)fying the Next Best Step 31
Conclusion 32
References 32
How to Make Agile TransformaAons Successful 33

Introduc)on 33
If the Failure Rate is 53% Why Do Companies Do Agile Transforma)ons 33
Business Agility ia Only Agile if it Generates Business Outcomes 34
Example of How Decision Speed Affects Business Agility 40
OODA Loop Decision Metrics 41
MarAal Arts, Shock Therapy, and Scrum 42

Shock Therapy Controversy 42
Aikido Sensei Gaku Homma: 5th Degree Dan 42
Aikido Sensei Mitsunari Kinai: 8th Degree Dan 43
Dunning Kruger Effect – Neuroscience Effects 43
Hyperproduc)vity is the Norm 43
Conclusion 43
References: 44
Scrumming the Scrum: An IntersecAon of ProducAvity, Happiness, and Neuroscience 45

The Happiness Metric 45
Scrumming the Scrum 45
Hyperproduc)vity: Twice the Work in Half the Time 45
Brain Science and Hard Data 46
Conclusion 46
References 46
Embracing the Power of IntransiAve CompeAAon: The Key to Unleashing Diversity and InnovaAon in Scrum
Teams 48
Background 48
Introduc)on 48
The Power of Intransi)ve Compe))on 48
Unleashing Diversity and Innova)on in Scrum Teams 49
Copyright 1993-2023 Jeff Sutherland 1

Conclusion 49
References 49
The Confluence of First Principles, Scrum, Product Teams, and Design Thinking: A Deep Dive into Agile
Product Development 51
Introduc)on 51
First Principles 51
Scrum 51
Product Teams 52
Design Thinking 52
The Confluence 52
The Confluence: A Deeper Explora)on 52
The Driving First Principles 53
References 54
Why Agile TransformaAons Fail: A First Principles PerspecAve 58

Introduc)on 58
Agile Transforma)ons: Where Things Go Wrong 58
Waterfall Management and Disjunc)on with First Principles 59
Misalignment with Complex Adap)ve Systems (CAS) 59
Neglec)ng the Neuroscience of Scrum 60
Strategies for Success 60
Conclusion 60
Personal Scrum 62
The Essence of Being Human 62
The Commigee in the Mind 62
Scrumming the Self 63
Personal Scrum 63
Conclusion 63
References 64
Epilogue: Our Journey ConAnues 65

Note to Reader
When Dorothy pulled aside the grand curtain to reveal the Wizard of Oz, she found a modest man
behind a great illusion. But behind the modest thirteen pages of the Scrum Guide, there exists a
grand cathedral of ideas, a web woven from the theories of great thinkers, innovators, and doers.
Scrum didn't merely spring from the minds of its creators, it emerged organically, a manifestaFon of
profound, universal principles. It reflects how people work, how our brains operate, and how teams
collaborate. Scrum was an inevitable outcome in our era of acceleraFng change and informaFon
overload.
Yet, amidst this whirlwind of constant evoluFon, understanding the fundamental principles
underlying Scrum remains crucial. To aid this understanding, we present this collecFon of essays,
concise yet powerful exploraFons into the essence of Scrum. Designed for discussion and
contemplaFon, each piece is self-contained, complete with references to original works.
These references are not merely cursory citaFons. They represent a vast reservoir of knowledge,
each potenFally iniFaFng a journey of lifelong learning. Many of these references are the life’s work
of some of our greatest minds, thinkers whose insights have been instrumental in shaping my own
understanding and pracFce of Scrum. I have studied some of these works for years, and I conFnue to
learn from them.
This collecFon is diverse and eclecFc, just like its readership. Some essays may provoke thought,
some might appear magical, and others might even seem mundane. Yet, every piece contributes to a
holisFc understanding of Scrum. Every essay, regardless of your iniFal response to it, has the
potenFal to make you a bePer person, a bePer team member, and a bePer Scrum Master - as they
have done for me.
Understanding and applying Scrum is an enriching journey rather than a desFnaFon. It invites us to
learn, unlearn, and relearn, in an ongoing cycle of growth. I invite you to embark on this journey with
an open mind and the readiness to embrace both challenges and rewards along the way. Happy
reading, and may you discover the transformaFve power of Scrum through these pages.

Preface
As a Registered Scrum Trainer and coach, I have been immersed in countless dialogues with diverse
Scrum pracFFoners and enthusiasts. From Product Owners to Developers, Team Members, and
Managers, my weeks have been filled with discussions that delve deep into the heart of Scrum. The
myriad quesFons that I have encountered highlight not only the vast scope of Scrum, but also the
thirst for understanding that drives people to ask, "Why do we do this in Scrum?" or "How can AI be
integrated into my Scrum team?"
In my quest to answer these quesFons, I'm o\en reminded of my Fme with an AI company,
developing learning systems. The AI we built was designed to expand learning, thereby enhancing
percepFon and the ability to achieve objecFves. This process began by idenFfying the learner's
mental construct, regardless of its shortcomings or confusion, and gradually inserFng new concepts
for the learner to explore and build upon. This approach, which we termed 'frobbing the brain',
aimed at introducing dissonance, a gentle perturbaFon that sFmulated the learner's mental state,
prompFng them to reconsider and reconfigure their thinking.
In many ways, the quesFons posed by the Scrum community mirror the journey of the learner with
the AI. O\en, people approach Scrum from a perspecFve shaped by their past experiences and
knowledge, which can someFmes be outdated or inapplicable. To move forward, a shi\ in thinking is
needed, which can be facilitated by going back to the underlying mechanics or First Principles.
My past as a Professor of Radiology, trained in radiaFon physics, along with my experience as a

Professor of MathemaFcs and StaFsFcs, has endowed me with a deep fascinaFon for the
fundamental principles that govern our universe. MathemaFcian and physicist Stephen Wolfram, in
his groundbreaking Physics Project, dove into these principles, showcasing how complex phenomena
like relaFvity and quantum mechanics are emergent, propelled by underlying First Principles. Among
these, the principle of ComputaFonal Irreducibility stands out: it argues that the universe cannot
predict outcomes without undergoing the simulaFon process in its enFrety.

This principle is of paramount importance when considering project management methodologies.
Just as relaFvity and quantum mechanics emerged from a deep understanding of First Principles,
project management frameworks are emergent phenomena, born out of insights gleaned from
numerous projects. In the case of Scrum, these insights are derived from millions of projects. The
efficacy of these frameworks largely depends on their alignment with First Principles, which span
from physics and chemistry to biological evoluFon and complex adapFve systems.
The framework of Scrum, therefore, emerged as a manifestaFon of these First Principles, as observed
through the lenses of physics, mathemaFcs, and data. It is a name I have given to a pracFce designed
to align with reality. Its success or failure hinges on its degree of alignment with these First Principles,
many of which are mathemaFcally provable. Without a comprehensive understanding of these
fundamental concepts, achieving a hyperproducFve state with Scrum, or any other framework, will
remain an elusive goal.
In "First Principles in Scrum", we are taking a step back to the roots, to the fundamental principles
that dictate the operaFon of our universe. From this bedrock, we'll construct our understanding of
Scrum. Scrum is more than just a framework; it is a philosophy deeply intertwined with the
dynamism of our ever-evolving universe.
Understanding Scrum starts with understanding these First Principles and recognizing the need for
rapid adaptaFon in a world of constant flux. This book aims to provide you with that foundaFonal
knowledge, enabling you to approach Scrum with a perspecFve that is both open and evolving, and
ready to adapt and thrive in this complex world.

How Scrum Emerged From First Principles
Introduc)on
In the realm of product development, Scrum has emerged as a powerful and widely embraced agile
framework. However, to truly grasp the essence of Scrum and its underlying principles, we must
embark on a journey that connects it with an intricate web of concepts and theories. This essay will
weave together the story of the FBI's transformaFon, the wisdom of Taiichi Ohno, the insights of
Wolfram and Gödel, and the fundamental principles of Scrum. As we delve into this tapestry, we will
unravel the interconnectedness of lean, complex adapFve systems, and the very fabric of the
universe.
The FBI's Triumph and the Path to Empiricism

Our story began in Scrum: The Art of Doing Twice the Work in Half the Time with the Federal Bureau
of InvesFgaFon (FBI), faced with a monumental task a\er the tragic events of 9/11. The FBI
embarked on a mission to build a sophisFcated system to track terrorists. However, a\er spending
millions of dollars and encountering insurmountable obstacles, the project faltered. It was at this
crossroads that the FBI embraced Scrum, a framework rooted in empiricism. The teams, guided by
the first principles of Scrum, relied on empirical evidence and conFnuous feedback loops to
transform the project's trajectory.
Taiichi Ohno's Sage Advice and the Pursuit of Con)nuous Improvement

Amidst the FBI's Scrum transformaFon, Taiichi Ohno's teachings found resonance within the teams.
Ohno, a pioneer of Lean manufacturing, believed in the power of humility and conFnuous
improvement. Half of what we think is wrong, and our daily mission is to recognize and recFfy these
fallacies. Embracing Ohno's wisdom, the teams embraced a culture of introspecFon, accountability,

and relentless pursuit of excellence. This commitment to conFnuous improvement became the
lifeblood of their Scrum journey.
Scrum's Origin in Lean and the Dance of Complex Adap)ve Systems

Scrum finds its roots in the renowned "New New Product Development Game" paper by Takeuchi
and Nonaka. Lean principles, drawn from the world of hardware, provided the iniFal foundaFon for
Scrum. However, beneath the surface of lean lies a deeper tapestry of ideas. At the heart of it all is
the concept of complex adapFve systems (CAS) and the powerful force of systems evoluFon. Just as
life evolves at the edge of chaos, Scrum teams thrive when they operate within the boundaries of
autonomy and self-organizaFon. This dance of autonomy within a CAS forms the basis for Scrum's
ability to adapt and respond to the ever-changing needs of product development.
Gödel's Theorem and Computa)onal Irreducibility: Unraveling Certainty

As our journey conFnues, we encounter the profound insights of Gödel's incompleteness theorems
and the concept of computaFonal irreducibility. Gödel's theorems remind us that in the realm of
mathemaFcs, there are inherent limits to what can be proven or known within a formal system.
Similarly, computaFonal irreducibility reveals that certain systems are too complex to be fully
predicted or simplified through computaFon alone. In the context of Scrum, these principles
emphasize the importance of empiricism and the necessity of conFnuous inspecFon and adaptaFon.
Scrum, like the universe itself, thrives in the realm of uncertainty, where the outcomes unfold only as
the project progresses.
The Cathedral Unveiled

As we conclude our journey through the interconnected world of Scrum's first principles, we realize
that Scrum is more than just a set of principles—it is a reflecFon of the intricacies of the universe
itself. Scrum's foundaFons in lean, complex adapFve systems, and the very fabric of physics and
biology, highlight it’s nature as an emergent phenomenon that aligns itself with First Principles. Let’s
dig deeper into these concepts.
The FBI's Triumph and the Path to Empiricism

The FBI, an insFtuFon responsible for maintaining naFonal security, found itself confronted with an
immense challenge a\er the devastaFng events of 9/11. The gravity of the situaFon demanded a
system that could effecFvely track and idenFfy potenFal threats, but their iniFal efforts fell short of
expectaFons. With hundreds of millions of dollars invested and limited progress made, it became
evident that a transformaFve approach was needed.
It was during this criFcal juncture that the FBI turned to the principles of Scrum, recognizing the
value of empiricism in navigaFng complex and uncertain terrain. The Scrum framework provided the
FBI teams with a systemaFc and flexible approach, rooted in the belief that knowledge is acquired
through experience and observaFon.
With a renewed sense of purpose, a\er cunng the development organizaFon from 300 to 30 and
moving them into the basement of the FBI building, the teams embarked on their Scrum journey
guided by the first principle of empiricism. They embraced the power of transparency, inspecFon,
and adaptaFon, laying the foundaFon for conFnuous improvement. The teams understood that in

order to overcome the obstacles they faced, they needed to learn from their experiences, gather
empirical evidence, and make data-driven decisions.
Regular retrospecFves became a hallmark of their Scrum process. These reflecFve sessions allowed
team members to openly discuss their challenges, celebrate their successes, and collecFvely idenFfy
areas for improvement. Through these feedback loops, the teams fostered a culture of learning and
collaboraFon, transcending the limitaFons of tradiFonal hierarchical structures.
As the teams embraced empiricism, they became empowered to challenge assumpFons and adapt
their approach based on real-Fme insights. They recognized that what may have seemed like the
right path at the beginning of a project could shi\ as new informaFon emerged. Embracing the
uncertain nature of their work, they learned to navigate uncharted waters with confidence and
resilience.
The transformaFon within the FBI was not without its challenges. The tradiFonal command-and-
control structure had to give way to a more decentralized approach, where decisions were made
collaboraFvely and responsibiliFes were shared. This shi\ in mindset and organizaFonal culture
required trust and open communicaFon, enabling team members to take ownership of their work
and contribute their diverse experFse.
Through the applicaFon of Scrum's empiricism, the FBI teams experienced a remarkable turnaround.
They began delivering tangible results in a fracFon of the Fme and cost previously incurred. By
embracing conFnuous improvement, they opFmized their processes, eliminated inefficiencies, and
responded swi\ly to changing requirements. The transformaFon was a testament to the power of
empiricism, reinforcing the noFon that learning from experience and adapFng based on evidence is
the key to success in complex and dynamic environments.
The FBI's journey with Scrum serves as a compelling example of how a commitment to empiricism
can lead to transformaFve outcomes. It highlights the importance of challenging convenFonal
wisdom, embracing uncertainty, and fostering a culture of conFnuous learning. Through their
success, the FBI teams demonstrated that by adhering to the principles of Scrum, even the most
daunFng challenges can be overcome, and truly remarkable achievements can be realized.
As we conFnue our exploraFon of Scrum's first principles, we will delve deeper into the philosophies
of Taiichi Ohno, the interplay between lean and complex adapFve systems, and the profound insights
of Gödel's theorem. Together, these principles illuminate the path towards unlocking the full
potenFal of Scrum and harnessing the power of empiricism in the pursuit of excellence.
Taiichi Ohno and the Pursuit of Con)nuous Improvement

Taiichi Ohno, the father of the Toyota ProducFon System, made significant contribuFons to the world
of manufacturing and product management. His philosophies and pracFces have had a profound
impact on the principles that underpin Scrum, parFcularly the pursuit of conFnuous improvement.
Ohno recognized that the path to excellence lay not in complacency but in a relentless commitment
to idenFfying and eliminaFng waste. He understood that half of what we think is wrong, and that our
job every day is to uncover those shortcomings and address them. This philosophy of humility and
self-reflecFon resonates deeply with the spirit of Scrum.
In the context of Scrum, conFnuous improvement is ingrained in the framework's DNA. The principle
of inspect and adapt provides teams with the opportunity to regularly assess their performance,
idenFfy areas of improvement, and take acFon to refine their processes. By embracing Ohno's

philosophy, Scrum teams are encouraged to challenge their assumpFons, quesFon the status quo,
and seek innovaFve soluFons.
Ohno's insights also emphasize the importance of creaFng an environment where individuals feel
safe to voice their ideas and admit their mistakes. He understood that by affirming the team's
experFse and encouraging open communicaFon, leaders can foster a culture of trust and
collaboraFon. When team members feel valued and supported, they become more willing to take
risks, share their insights, and acFvely contribute to the collecFve pursuit of excellence.
In the context of Scrum, this principle is embodied in the concept of self-organizing teams. By
empowering teams to make decisions and take ownership of their work, Scrum fosters an
environment that encourages autonomy and creaFvity. Teams have the freedom to experiment,
innovate, and conFnuously improve their processes, leading to enhanced producFvity and a greater
sense of ownership.
Ohno's philosophy of conFnuous improvement also aligns with the fundamental principles of Lean,
which is the foundaFon upon which Scrum is built. Lean thinking emphasizes the eliminaFon of
waste and the pursuit of perfecFon, with the ulFmate goal of delivering value to the customer. By
conFnuously seeking opportuniFes to improve efficiency, reduce unnecessary work, and enhance the
quality of deliverables, Scrum teams embrace the essence of Lean principles.
The integraFon of Ohno's philosophy into Scrum creates a powerful synergy that propels teams
towards excellence. By embracing conFnuous improvement and encouraging a mindset of humility
and learning, Scrum teams foster a culture of innovaFon and adaptability. They become adept at
idenFfying and addressing inefficiencies, opFmizing their processes, and delivering high-quality
products that exceed customer expectaFons.
As we journey further into the principles of Scrum, we will explore the profound insights of Godel's
theorem, the interplay between complex adapFve systems and lean thinking, and the deeper
philosophical underpinnings of Scrum's first principles. By delving into these concepts, we expand
our understanding of Scrum's transformaFve power and the universal principles that drive its
success.
Godel's Theorem and the Power of Empiricism in Scrum

In the realm of mathemaFcs and logic, Godel's theorem stands as a profound testament to the limits
of formal systems and the inherent uncertainty that permeates our understanding of the world. As
we explore the principles of Scrum, we encounter the profound implicaFons of Godel's theorem and
its resonance with the framework's reliance on empiricism.
Godel's theorem, formulated by mathemaFcian Kurt Godel in the early 20th century, demonstrates
that within any consistent formal system of mathemaFcs, there will always be true statements that
cannot be proven within that system. In essence, Godel showed that there are inherent limitaFons to
what can be mathemaFcally predicted or proven.
The implicaFons of Godel's theorem extend beyond the realm of mathemaFcs. They touch upon the
very nature of knowledge and certainty in our world. Godel's theorem challenges the noFon that we
can have complete and absolute knowledge of a system or a project. It reminds us that there will
always be aspects that elude our understanding, no maPer how rigorous our methods of analysis
may be.

In the context of Scrum, Godel's theorem finds resonance in the principle of empiricism—the idea
that knowledge comes from experience and observaFon. Scrum embraces the inherent uncertainty
and complexity of product development projects, acknowledging that complete knowledge and
predictability are unaPainable at the outset.
By adopFng an empirical approach, Scrum teams recognize the importance of learning from
experience and using feedback loops to guide decision-making. The iteraFve nature of Scrum allows
for conFnuous experimentaFon, adaptaFon, and refinement of the product and the development
process. It encourages teams to inspect and adapt based on real-world data and observaFons, rather
than relying solely on theoreFcal or speculaFve models.
Godel's theorem serves as a reminder that certainty is elusive, and that the most effecFve way to
navigate complex systems is through ongoing observaFon and empirical response to data. Scrum's
embrace of empiricism aligns with this understanding, as it emphasizes the value of real-Fme
feedback and conFnuous learning.
As Scrum teams engage in frequent retrospecFves and sprint reviews, they create opportuniFes to
reflect on their work, idenFfy areas for improvement, and make adjustments accordingly. This
dynamic and adapFve approach allows for the incorporaFon of new informaFon and insights,
enabling teams to respond effecFvely to changing circumstances and deliver greater value to the
customer.
Furthermore, Godel's theorem invites us to embrace the noFon of uncertainty as a catalyst for
growth and innovaFon. The understanding that we can never have complete certainty about a
project or a system opens the door to exploraFon, experimentaFon, and the pursuit of new
possibiliFes. Scrum's iteraFve and incremental approach aligns with this mindset, enabling teams to
embrace uncertainty and leverage it as a springboard for innovaFon and conFnuous improvement.
In this way, Godel's theorem and the principles of Scrum converge, highlighFng the power of
empiricism and the inherent uncertainty that underlies our journey through complex systems. By
acknowledging the limits of our knowledge and embracing the iteraFve and adapFve nature of
Scrum, teams can navigate the ever-changing landscape of product development with greater
confidence, resilience, and effecFveness.
As we delve deeper into the principles of Scrum, we will explore the interplay between complex
adapFve systems, the foundaFons of lean thinking, and the emergence of Scrum as a transformaFve
framework. By examining these connecFons, we gain a more profound understanding of Scrum's
ability to harness uncertainty, foster innovaFon, and drive successful outcomes in the dynamic world
of product development.
Computa)onal Irreducibility and the Emergence of Scrum

In the quest to unravel the mysteries of the universe, scienFsts have grappled with the concept of
computaFonal irreducibility—the idea that certain systems are so complex that their behavior
cannot be simplified or predicted through computaFon alone. As we explore the principles of Scrum,
we uncover the profound connecFon between computaFonal irreducibility and the emergence of
this transformaFve framework.
The noFon of computaFonal irreducibility traces its roots to the pioneering work of Stephen
Wolfram, a renowned scienFst and mathemaFcian. Wolfram's research suggests that some systems,

parFcularly those that are complex and non-linear, cannot be fully understood or predicted through
mathemaFcal or computaFonal modeling alone. Instead, these systems must be allowed to play out
in order to observe and understand their behavior and outcomes.
In the context of Scrum, the concept of computaFonal irreducibility sheds light on the dynamic and
unpredictable nature of product development projects. TradiFonal project management approaches,
such as the waterfall model, aPempt to predict and plan every aspect of the project in advance.
However, the inherent complexity of product development renders such approaches inadequate, as
they fail to account for the intricacies and uncertainFes inherent in the process.
Scrum, on the other hand, embraces the reality of computaFonal irreducibility by emphasizing an
iteraFve and adapFve approach. By dividing the project into small, manageable increments called
sprints, Scrum allows teams to gather real-Fme feedback and adjust their course of acFon based on
empirical evidence. This iteraFve nature of Scrum enables teams to respond to changing
requirements, technologies, and market condiFons, thereby maximizing the chances of success.
The emergence of Scrum as a transformaFve framework can be aPributed to its alignment with the
principles of computaFonal irreducibility. By acknowledging the inherent complexity and
unpredictability of product development, Scrum empowers teams to embrace uncertainty and
leverage it as a catalyst for innovaFon and conFnuous improvement.
Moreover, the concepts of emergent phenomena and self-organizaFon are intricately linked to
computaFonal irreducibility. In complex systems, such as Scrum teams, the interacFons and
behaviors of individual components give rise to emergent properFes that cannot be deduced from
the properFes of the individual components alone. These emergent properFes, in turn, shape the
dynamics and effecFveness of the team.
Scrum's emphasis on self-organizing teams, where individuals collaborate and make decisions
collecFvely, harnesses the power of emergent phenomena. By fostering autonomy and diversity
within the team, Scrum allows for the emergence of innovaFve ideas and approaches that may not
have been foreseen or planned in advance.
The principles of computaFonal irreducibility and emergent phenomena also intersect with the Lean
thinking that underpins Scrum. Lean, derived from the renowned Toyota ProducFon System,
advocates for the eliminaFon of waste, the pursuit of conFnuous improvement, and the
empowerment of frontline workers.
Scrum, influenced by Lean principles, embraces the idea of "autonomaFon" or "automaFon with a
human touch." This concept recognizes that while automaFon can streamline processes, human
involvement and decision-making are crucial for effecFve problem-solving and adaptability.
By embracing computaFonal irreducibility and the emergent nature of complex systems, Scrum
enables teams to navigate the ever-changing landscape of product development with agility,
creaFvity, and resilience. It provides a framework for harnessing uncertainty and complexity as
catalysts for growth, innovaFon, and improved outcomes.
We next delve deeper into the foundaFonal principles of Scrum and their connecFon to the realms
of biology, physics, and chemistry. By exploring these interdisciplinary connecFons, we gain a richer
understanding of Scrum's place within the broader tapestry of the universe and its potenFal to drive
transformaFve change in the world of product development.

From Biology to Scrum: The Evolu)onary Paradigm
In our exploraFon of Scrum's origins and principles, we encounter a fascinaFng connecFon to the
realms of biology, physics, and chemistry. By understanding the fundamental principles that underpin
life itself, we gain deeper insights into the evoluFonary paradigm that shapes Scrum as a framework
for product development.
The field of biology provides a wealth of knowledge about the mechanisms of evoluFon and
adaptaFon. At its core, evoluFon is driven by the process of variaFon, selecFon, and retenFon of
favorable traits. Organisms that can adapt to changing environments and maximize their chances of
survival have a higher likelihood of passing on their advantageous traits to future generaFons.
This evoluFonary paradigm resonates with the principles of Scrum. Just as organisms evolve and
adapt in response to changing condiFons, Scrum teams embrace the principles of inspecFon,
adaptaFon, and conFnuous improvement. By regularly reflecFng on their work and making
adjustments based on feedback, Scrum teams strive to enhance their effecFveness and deliver value
to customers.
The concept of emergence, which we explored in the context of computaFonal irreducibility, also
finds resonance in biology. In complex adapFve systems, such as ecosystems or even the human
body, the interacFons of individual components give rise to emergent properFes that cannot be
predicted solely by studying the parts in isolaFon.
Similarly, Scrum teams, with their diverse members and collaboraFve dynamics, embody the
principles of emergence. The collecFve intelligence and creaFvity that emerge from the interacFons
of team members allow for innovaFve soluFons and approaches to problem-solving. The team
becomes more than the sum of its parts, drawing strength from the combined experFse and
perspecFves of its members.
Physics and chemistry, the foundaFons of the natural world, further deepen our understanding of
Scrum's principles. The principles of relaFvity and quantum mechanics, which govern the behavior of
maPer and energy, demonstrate the inherent complexity and unpredictability of the universe.
This complexity mirrors the intricate nature of product development projects. The interacFons
between various components—technologies, team dynamics, customer needs—give rise to intricate
paPerns and outcomes that cannot be fully predicted or controlled. Scrum, with its iteraFve and
adapFve approach, acknowledges this complexity and allows teams to respond effecFvely to
changing circumstances.
Chemistry, on the other hand, provides insights into the power of chemical reacFons and
transformaFons. Chemical reacFons occur at the molecular level, where atoms and molecules
interact and rearrange to form new substances. This process of transformaFon and change is
fundamental to the evoluFonary nature of life itself.
Scrum, too, is characterized by transformaFon and change. Through its iteraFve cycles, Scrum teams
conFnually transform ideas, requirements, and feedback into tangible products or soluFons. This
transformaFve nature of Scrum aligns with the underlying principles of chemistry, where atoms
come together and rearrange to form new molecules and compounds.

As we contemplate the interdisciplinary connecFons between biology, physics, chemistry, and Scrum,
we begin to see the tapestry of the universe woven into the very fabric of this agile framework.
Scrum's principles of adaptaFon, emergence, complexity, and transformaFon align with the
fundamental principles that shape life, maPer, and energy.
By recognizing these connecFons, we expand our perspecFve on Scrum beyond its pracFcal
applicaFons in product development. We glimpse its place within the larger cosmic dance, where
systems evolve, complexity emerges, and transformaFon unfolds. Scrum becomes a testament to the
inherent beauty and elegance of the universe, as it provides a framework for harnessing these
natural processes to drive innovaFon, collaboraFon, and success in the realm of product
development.
Let’s synthesize Scrum's principles for individuals, teams, and organizaFons. We will reflect on the
transformaFve power of Scrum and its capacity to shape the future of product development in an
ever-evolving world.
The Transforma)ve Power of Scrum: Shaping the Future of Product

Development
As we conclude our iniFal foray into the depths of Scrum's origins, principles, and connecFons to
various disciplines, we find ourselves at the threshold of a new era in product development. Scrum,
with its foundaFons in lean thinking, empirical process control, complexity theory, and evoluFonary
principles, holds the transformaFve power to shape the future of product development in profound
ways.
Throughout our exploraFon, we will see how Scrum embraces the principles of lean thinking, as
pioneered by Taiichi Ohno and his colleagues at Toyota. The emphasis on waste reducFon,
conFnuous improvement, and the pursuit of perfecFon resonates with Scrum's principles of
inspecFon, adaptaFon, and delivering value to customers. By applying lean principles to product
development, Scrum enables teams to minimize inefficiencies, opFmize processes, and enhance
overall producFvity.
Scrum's roots in empirical process control remind us of the importance of data-driven decision-
making and conFnuous learning. Just as Wolfram's concept of computaFonal irreducibility highlights
the limits of predictability, Scrum encourages teams to base their acFons on real-Fme feedback and
empirical evidence. This iteraFve and adapFve approach allows for rapid experimentaFon, course
correcFon, and the ability to embrace uncertainty with confidence.
The insights from complexity theory and the concept of emergence provide Scrum teams with a
powerful framework for navigaFng the complexiFes of product development. By fostering self-
organizaFon, autonomy, and collaboraFon, Scrum enables teams to harness the collecFve
intelligence and creaFvity of its members. This unleashes their potenFal to tackle complex problems,
innovate, and respond effecFvely to changing circumstances.
Gödel's incompleteness theorems, with their implicaFons for the limits of mathemaFcal certainty,
find resonance in Scrum's principles of empiricism and inspecFon. By acknowledging that we can
never be certain of the future, Scrum invites us to embrace a mindset of curiosity, adaptability, and
conFnuous improvement. It challenges us to quesFon assumpFons, challenge the status quo, and
seek new possibiliFes.

As we consider the broader implicaFons of Scrum's transformaFve power, we recognize its impact
not only on product development but also on the individuals, teams, and organizaFons that adopt it.
Scrum empowers individuals by fostering autonomy, collaboraFon, and a sense of purpose. It
provides a plarorm for personal growth, skill development, and fulfillment.
At the team level, Scrum fosters a culture of trust, transparency, and shared accountability. It
promotes cross-funcFonal collaboraFon, effecFve communicaFon, and a relentless focus on
delivering value to customers. Scrum teams become dynamic, self-organizing units that can adapt to
changing market condiFons, innovate, and outperform tradiFonal hierarchical structures.
For organizaFons, Scrum offers a pathway to agility and resilience in an increasingly volaFle and
uncertain business landscape. By embracing Scrum's principles, organizaFons can improve Fme to
market, increase customer saFsfacFon, and foster a culture of conFnuous improvement. Scrum
enables organizaFons to navigate complex challenges, seize opportuniFes, and thrive in an ever-
evolving world.
As we look ahead to the future of product development, it is clear that Scrum will conFnue to play a
vital role. Its principles of adaptaFon, collaboraFon, and conFnuous improvement align with the
demands of a rapidly changing technological landscape. By embracing Scrum, individuals, teams, and
organizaFons can unleash their full potenFal, shape the future of product development, and
contribute to the advancement of society as a whole.
In conclusion, Scrum is more than just an agile framework for product development; it is a powerful
catalyst for transformaFon and innovaFon. By drawing insights from lean thinking, complexity
theory, empirical process control, and the principles of emergence, Scrum provides a holisFc
approach to navigaFng the complexiFes of the modern world. It offers a way forward that embraces
uncertainty, fosters collaboraFon, and
Personal Connections to Mentors Who Affected Scrum
In our quest to understand the first principles that govern the universe and their connecFon to
Scrum, we have explored various disciplines and theories. From the fundamental physics of the
universe to the emergence of complex adapFve systems, each level of emergence has led us to a
deeper understanding of the world we inhabit and the principles that underpin it. Sutherland has
directly worked with some of the leading thinkers of the 20th century in the fields of physics,

mathemaFcs, evoluFonary theory, medicine, compuFng and AI technology. One of the goals of this
book is to capture that experience and its influence on the formaFon of Scrum.
At the foundaFonal level, we delve into the work of Stephen Wolfram and his concept of
computaFonal irreducibility. This idea suggests that the universe itself is computaFonal in nature and
that its behavior cannot be fully predicted or simplified through computaFon alone. It is through this
lens that we begin to comprehend the complexity and unpredictability inherent in the world around
us. Wolfram’s work formalizes the findings of Edward Fredkin who worked in the AI lab with Marvin
Minsky at MIT. Fredkin was a pioneer in the field of digital physics and was involved in the
development of the first computer memory based on thin-film magneFc storage technology. He also
contributed to the development of cellular automata, which are a type of computaFonal model used
in complex systems research. Fredkin was known for his unconvenFonal ideas about the nature of
reality and the universe, including the possibility that the universe is a kind of digital computer or
simulaFon. He was the lead investor in Sutherland’s startup, Individual Inc., the first internet news
company based on the SMART lexical analysis system from Cornell University. This system was a
forrunner to the type of AI systems we see today in chatGPT.
Moving forward, we explore the realm of relaFvity and quantum mechanics, theories developed by
visionaries like Albert Einstein, Niels Bohr, Werner Heisenberg, and Max Planck. These theories have
expanded our understanding of space, Fme, maPer, and energy, revealing the intricate interplay
between parFcles, waves, and the fabric of the universe. Sutherland was trained in radiaFon physics
under William Hendee at the University of Colorado Medical School. As one of the top radiaFon
physicists in the last century. Hendee authored the leading medical imaging physics and medical
radiaFon physics texts in academia and they conFnue to be updated regularly to this day by a senior
team of his former students. Sutherland was a Professor in Hendee’s department of Radiology
supervising Ph.D. students moving from theoreFcal physics into medicine. He was cofounder, at the
request of Hendee of the Center for Vitamins and Cancer Research under the sponsorship of Linus
Pauling and made significant contribuFons to theoreFcal research in cancer that has influenced
systems thinking in that field. The lastest version of Hendee’s Medical Imaging and Hendee’s
RadiaFon Physics are being used as source materials for Sutherland’s latest Scrum startup.
From the realm of physics, we venture into the realm of chemistry where Linus Pauling got his first
Nobel Prize. Sutherland met with Pauling many Fmes in his lab and was taught by Pauling about the
structure of DNA using the model on his living room coffee table. This was the model he gave to
Watson and Crick than enabled them to achieve their Nobel prize.
The structure of atoms and the principles of wave-parFcle duality shape the behavior of maPer.
Chemical reacFons, driven by these principles, give rise to the vast array of substances and
compounds that form the building blocks of life as we know it. Sutherland is currently the Founder
and Chief ScienFst of a healthcare startup studying the intersecFon of biochemistry and biophysics
and is working with molecular weights of compounds and their interacFons with electromagneFc
frequencies using the DeBroglie equaFon, fundamental to quantum mechanics, on a daily basis. This
is leading to a new framework for healthcare based on Scrum.
In the realm of biology, we encounter the phenomenon of evoluFon, first proposed by Charles
Darwin. EvoluFonary processes, guided by natural selecFon and geneFc variaFon, have shaped the
diversity of life on Earth over billions of years. It is through the lens of evoluFon that we gain insight
into the emergence of complex adapFve systems. Sutherland collaborated with Professor Daniel
DenneP at Tu\s University who is the leading proponent of Darwin’s work in the last century.
Sutherland parFcipated in one of DenneP’s leading seminars in AI where Nobel Laureates and

leading AI experts (Minsky and Moravec) agreed that the superintelligence singularlity will be
achieved before 2055. You will see more of all of this later in this book.
EvoluFonary theory forced the emergence of complex adapFve systems theory to provide a
framework for understanding the behavior of systems composed of numerous interconnected
agents. These systems, whether they are ecosystems, social networks, or even human organizaFons,
exhibit emergent properFes that cannot be aPributed solely to the behavior of individual
components. It is within these systems that autonomy, diversity, collaboraFon, and self-organizaFon
come to the fore. Sutherland worked for many years in AI Alley in Cambridge MA where Nobel
physicist Feynman was encouraging Thinking Machines, the first massively parallel supercompuFng
company to simulate the evoluFon of species on the computer under the guidance of Professor Jay
Gould at Harvard. This work directly influenced the first Scrum team in 1993 and created what
Google architects called “the Secret Sauce of Scrum” as the driver of hyperproducFve Scrum teams.
More on these topics later.
As we ascend the ladder of emergence, we reach the domain of project planning frameworks. Scrum,
with its origins in the lean thinking of Taiichi Ohno, the empirical process control of Shewhart and
Deming, and the insights from complex adapFve systems theory, emerges as a framework that aligns
closely with the way the universe operates. Sutherland worked with Tom Gilb for many years who
was an associate of Edwards Deming expanding his understanding of the roots of the Toyota Way.
Scrum's emphasis on empiricism, inspecFon, and adaptaFon resonates with the fundamental
principles of learning from experience and responding to feedback that we see in the natural world.
By embracing complexity, uncertainty, and the necessity of conFnuous improvement, Scrum enables
teams to thrive in an ever-changing environment.
This alignment with first principles is reflected in the widespread adopFon of Scrum within the
product development industry. The latest agile survey reveals that Scrum commands an impressive
88% market share, a testament to its effecFveness in delivering value and empowering teams. In the
past year, Scrum@Scale which is based on this book delivered almost a 400% increase in market
share because of its ability to drive stock price up 400% (John Deere) and increase feature delivery
400% (Rocket Mortgage) over compeFng frameworks. All frameworks are emergent properFes of
observaFon of thousands of projects, millions in the case of Scrum, and the success of any
framework is dependent on its alignment with First Principles.
In conclusion, the journey through the principles that underpin the universe has led us to the
emergence of Scrum as a project management framework that aligns with the fundamental workings
of the natural world. By tracing the levels of emergence, from the fundamental physics to the
evoluFon of complex adapFve systems, we have will discover the deep-rooted connecFons between
Scrum and the way the universe operates. When we understand these First Principles we will be
radically more effecFve Agile leaders and Scrum Masters.
As we conFnue to explore the fronFers of science, technology, and human understanding, Scrum
provides a powerful framework for embracing complexity, fostering collaboraFon, and driving
conFnuous improvement. By aligning with the first principles, Scrum enables us to navigate the ever-
changing landscape of product development and contribute to the advancement of our collecFve
endeavors.

References
Wolff, M. (2008) Schroedinger's Universe and the Origin of the Natural Laws. Outskirts Press, Inc.
Drawing upon Erwin Schrödinger's insights, Wolff argues that the enFre universe, including maPer
and forces, can be understood as manifestaFons of shapes and variaFons within the structure of
space. He challenges tradiFonal parFcle theories and advocates for a wave structure perspecFve,
suggesFng that all maPer is interconnected as part of the wave structure of the universe. All
fundamental forces and standard physics observed constants derive directly from his simple First
Principles of the wave theory of maPer.
DenneG, D. (1995) Darwin's Dangerous Idea: EvoluMon and the Meanings of Life. Simon & Shuster.
DenneP explores Charles Darwin's theory of evoluFon and its profound implicaFons for our
understanding of life on Earth. He argues that the process of natural selecFon, driven by variaFon,
heredity, and compeFFon, is the fundamental mechanism behind the diversity and complexity of life
forms.
Wolfram, S. (2002) A New Kind of Science. Champaign, IL: Wolfram Media. This seminal work
explores the concept of computaFonal irreducibility and its implicaFons for understanding the
complexity of the universe. Wolfram's insights into the computaFonal nature of the universe provide
a foundaFon for our exploraFon of emergence and unpredictability.
Einstein, A. . (1905) The Special Theory of RelaMvity. Annalen der Physik 17:891-921. Einstein's
groundbreaking theory of special relaFvity revoluFonized our understanding of space, Fme, and
gravity. This work laid the foundaFon for our exploraFon of the physical principles that govern the
universe.
Darwin, C. (1859) On the Origin of Species. London: John Murray. Darwin's groundbreaking work on
evoluFon by natural selecFon provided a comprehensive explanaFon for the diversity of life on
Earth. His ideas have shaped our understanding of the biological processes that drive adaptaFon and
change.
Ohno, T. (1988) Toyota ProducMon System: Beyond Large-Scale ProducMon. ProducMvity Press.
Ohno's influenFal book delves into the principles of the Toyota ProducFon System, which forms the
basis for lean thinking and its applicaFon in manufacturing and beyond.
Takeuchi, H., Nonaka, I. (1986) The New New Product Development Game. Harvard Business
Review 64(1):137-146. This seminal arFcle introduced the concept of lean hardware and highlighted
the importance of cross-funcFonal, self-organizing teams in product development.
Gould, S. J., & Eldredge, N. (1977) Punctuated equilibria: The tempo and mode of evoluMon
reconsidered. Paleobiology 3(2):115-151. This seminal paper introduced the concept of punctuated
equilibrium, proposing that species experience long periods of stability (equilibrium) interrupted by
brief bursts of rapid change (punctuaFon).
Gould, S. J. The Structure of EvoluMonary Theory. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press; 2002.
This posthumously published book is considered Gould's magnum opus. In this comprehensive work,
Gould synthesizes his lifelong research and ideas on evoluFonary biology, incorporaFng various
aspects of paleontology, developmental biology, and geneFcs.

The Paradox of Induc>ve vs Deduc>ve Reasoning
Personal Prologue
In the mid-20th century, a young fighter pilot found himself at a crossroads. Having completed 100
missions over North Vietnam and transiFoning from the F4 to the F101, he was presented with an
opportunity that would significantly alter his trajectory. As a West Point graduate, he was given the
chance to pursue an advanced degree with the intenFon of teaching at the United States Air Force
Academy. However, he had one condiFon - he would only accept this opportunity if he could aPend
Stanford University, home to one of the world's leading mathemaFcs departments at the Fme.
The USAF eventually agreed, and he found himself at Stanford, ready to immerse himself in the
world of mathemaFcs. Upon meeFng with the head of the department, he was informed that his
previous mathemaFcal training was insufficient for the task at hand. To become a math professor at
the USAF Academy, or indeed anywhere else, he would need to undertake all Stanford
undergraduate math courses in addiFon to courses for his graduate degree. Stanford was not merely
training teachers; it was shaping the future leading mathemaFcians and is currently ranked #2 out of
all math departments worldwide a\er MIT. This was the department where Douglas Hofstadter,
author of the seminal work "Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid," honed his cra\.
This young pilot's journey into the world of mathemaFcs was not without its influences. At West
Point, he found a mentor in the works of David Hume, the 18th-century philosopher known for his
empirical approach and skepFcism. Before Hume, it was Bertrand Russell, the BriFsh philosopher and
logician, who had shaped his philosophical outlook. Russell's work in logic and the philosophy of
mathemaFcs would later resonate with him as he delved deeper into his mathemaFcal studies at
Stanford.
While at Stanford, his son Andrew aPended the Bing Nursery School, a place where Douglas
Hofstadter likely spent his early years. Andrew was part of the legendary Stanford marshmallow
experiment, a study on delayed graFficaFon that has been followed up to this day. This experiment,
conducted at the Bing Nursery School, found that children who were able to wait longer for

preferred rewards tended to have bePer life outcomes, as measured by SAT scores, educaFonal
aPainment, body mass index (BMI), and other life measures. Drew went on to become a research
scienFst and mathemaFcian at MIT helping it maintain its reputaFon as the #1 mathemaFcs
department in the world.
Following Stanford, for some years Sutherland was a Professor of MathemaFcs at the U.S. Air Force
Academy whose research involved many medical papers published with Herant Katchadourian, Chair
of the Department of Psychiatry and later Dean at Stanford while simultaneously rewriFng and
upgrading staFsFcal algorithms and mathemaFcal libraries on some of the largest computers used by
the Air Force.
This essay is a reflecFon of that journey, a synthesis of the philosophical influences of Hume and
Russell, the mathemaFcal rigor of Stanford, and the pracFcal applicaFon of these principles in the
realm of Scrum. It explores the paradox of inducFve and deducFve reasoning, a paradox that lies at
the heart of mathemaFcal logic, empirical science, and the principles of Scrum. It is a testament to a
journey that began in the cockpit of a fighter jet and led to the corridors of one of the world's leading
mathemaFcs departments.
Abstract
This paper explores the paradoxical relaFonship between inducFve and deducFve reasoning within
the context of Scrum, an Agile framework for managing complex projects. Drawing on the works of
David Hume, Bertrand Russell, Kurt Gödel, and Douglas Hofstadter, the paper aims to shed light on
the inherent tension between the empirical, inducFve nature of Scrum and the deducFve reasoning
that underlies its first principles. The paper also integrates the computaFonal experFse of Andrew
Sutherland, a mathemaFcian and Principal Research ScienFst at the MassachusePs InsFtute of
Technology, to provide a deeper understanding of the principles underlying Scrum.
Introduc)on
Scrum, as a framework, is built on empirical process control theory, or empiricism. Empiricism asserts
that knowledge comes from experience and making decisions based on what is known. Scrum
employs an iteraFve, incremental approach to opFmize predictability and control risk. It is inherently
inducFve, relying on observaFons from past iteraFons to inform future acFons. However, Scrum also
operates on a set of first principles, which are deducFvely reasoned. This creates a paradox: while
Scrum's pracFces are inducFve, its principles are deducFve. This paper explores this paradox,
drawing on the philosophical insights of David Hume and Bertrand Russell, the mathemaFcal rigor of
Kurt Gödel, and the computaFonal experFse of Andrew Sutherland.
The Paradox Explored

David Hume, the 18th-century Sconsh philosopher, was a central figure in the philosophical
movement known as empiricism, which emphasizes the role of experience and evidence, parFcularly
sensory percepFon, in the formaFon of ideas. Hume's insights into the nature of reasoning and
knowledge significantly influenced the field of epistemology, the study of knowledge and jusFfied
belief.
One of Hume's most significant contribuFons was his criFque of inducFve reasoning, which is the
process of deriving general principles from specific observaFons. Hume argued that while we o\en
assume that the future will resemble the past based on our experiences, this assumpFon cannot be
logically jusFfied. This is known as the "problem of inducFon" (Hume, 1748).

Hume's skepFcism towards inducFve reasoning resonates strongly with the principles of Scrum, an
empirical process control framework. In Scrum, teams regularly inspect their work and adapt their
plans based on the results. This process acknowledges the inherent uncertainty and complexity in
product development. While past experiences can inform future acFons, Scrum pracFFoners
understand that there's no guarantee that the future will resemble the past. They recognize that
what worked before might not work again, and they remain open to changing their methods based
on the outcomes they observe.
Bertrand Russell, along with Alfred North Whitehead, aPempted to establish a solid foundaFon for
all of mathemaFcs in their work "Principia MathemaFca". Their goal was to derive all mathemaFcal
truths from a well-defined set of axioms and inference rules in symbolic logic. This was an aPempt to
avoid paradoxes like Russell's paradox, which arises from naive set theory. Russell's paradox shows
that some sets cannot be members of themselves, leading to a contradicFon within set theory. To
avoid such paradoxes, Russell introduced the concept of "type theory", which restricts the kinds of
sets that can be considered (Russell, 1912).
However, Kurt Gödel's incompleteness theorems, published in 1931, demonstrated that any
consistent formal system that includes basic arithmeFc cannot be both complete and consistent. The
first incompleteness theorem states that in any consistent formal system F within which a certain
amount of arithmeFc can be carried out, there are statements of the language of F which can neither
be proved nor disproved in F. The second incompleteness theorem states that such a formal system
cannot prove that the system itself is consistent (assuming it is indeed consistent) (Gödel, 1931).
This means that there will always be statements within the system that cannot be proven or
disproven using the rules and axioms of the system itself. This was a significant blow to the
foundaFonal efforts of Russell and others, as it showed that their goal of finding a complete and
consistent set of axioms for all of mathemaFcs was unachievable.
In the context of Scrum, this aligns with the principle that complex work is unpredictable, and one
must regularly inspect and adapt. Just as Gödel's incompleteness theorems show that we cannot
have a complete and consistent set of axioms for all of mathemaFcs, in Scrum, we cannot have a
complete and consistent set of rules or predicFons for all work. There will always be unknowns and
uncertainFes that require flexibility and adaptaFon.
Douglas Hofstadter, an American scholar known for his research in cogniFve science, physics, and
comparaFve literature, explores how self-reference and strange loops can lead to complex behaviors
in systems, including human cogniFon. Hofstadter's work has had a significant impact on the field of
cogniFve science, and his ideas conFnue to influence our understanding of complex systems and
human cogniFon (Hofstadter, 1979).
Hofstadter's work mirrors the Scrum principle of self-organizaFon, where teams are given the
autonomy to plan and manage their own work. This principle aligns with Hofstadter's exploraFon of
self-reference and strange loops in systems, suggesFng that complex behaviors can emerge from
simple rules when those rules are applied recursively.
Andrew Sutherland, a mathemaFcian and Principal Research ScienFst at the MassachusePs InsFtute
of Technology, is known for his contribuFons to computaFonal aspects of number theory and
arithmeFc geometry. His work involves large scale computaFons, including projects on bounded gaps
between primes, the L-funcFons and Modular Forms Database, the sums of three cubes project, and
the computaFon and classificaFon of Sato-Tate distribuFons (Sutherland, 2019).

In the context of our discussion, Sutherland's work offers a valuable perspecFve on the role of
computaFon and rigorous mathemaFcal proof in understanding complex systems. His work on
computaFonal aspects of number theory and arithmeFc geometry exemplifies the kind of rigorous,
deducFve reasoning championed by Russell and Whitehead. At the same Fme, his work on large
scale computaFons and the inherent uncertainty in these computaFons resonates with Hume's
insights into the limitaFons of inducFve reasoning.
In the Scrum framework, Sutherland's approach to mathemaFcal research can be seen as a model for
managing complex projects. Just as he uses rigorous methods and large scale computaFons to
explore complex mathemaFcal problems, Scrum teams use a disciplined, iteraFve approach to
manage complex product development projects. They strive for transparency, inspect their results
regularly, and adapt their plans based on these inspecFons, embodying the kind of rigor and
discipline that Sutherland demonstrates in his research.
Conclusion
The paradox between inducFon and deducFon in Scrum is not a contradicFon, but a reflecFon of the
complex, unpredictable nature of the work it seeks to manage. It is through this paradox that Scrum
teams find the capacity for creaFvity, discovery, and understanding. The inducFve pracFces of Scrum
provide the flexibility to adapt to change, while its deducFve principles provide the stability to
navigate complexity. This paradox, rather than being a problem, is a source of strength for Scrum,
enabling it to effecFvely manage complex projects in a rapidly changing environment.
References
1. Hume, D. (1748). An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding. Oxford University Press.
2. Russell, B. (1912). The Problems of Philosophy. Oxford University Press.
3. Gödel, K. (1931). On Formally Undecidable ProposiFons of Principia MathemaFca and
Related Systems. Monatshe\e für MathemaFk und Physik.
4. Hofstadter, D. R. (1979). Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid. Basic Books.
5. Schwaber, K., & Sutherland, J. (2020). The Scrum Guide. ScrumGuides.org.
6. Sutherland, Andrew V. (2019). "Sato-Tate distribuFons". AnalyFc methods in arithmeFc
geometry. Contemporary MathemaFcs. Vol. 740. American MathemaFcal Society. pp.
197–258. arXiv:1604.01256. doi:10.1090/conm/740/14904. MR 4033732.
7. Stanford marshmallow experiment - Wikipedia.
8. Mischel, Walter; Ebbesen, Ebbe B. (1970). "APenFon in delay of graFficaFon". Journal of
Personality and Social Psychology. 16 (2): 329–337. doi:10.1037/h0029815. S2CID
53464175.
9. Mischel, Walter; Shoda, Yuichi; Peake, Philip K. (1990). "PredicFng adolescent cogniFve
and self-regulatory competencies from preschool delay of graFficaFon: IdenFfying
diagnosFc condiFons". Developmental Psychology. 26 (6): 978–986. doi:10.1037/0012-
1649.26.6.978.

Responding to Change
In the year 2001, seventeen visionaries met to manifest a shared understanding of the so\ware
development landscape and its future. RepresentaFves from Scrum, Extreme Programming, and
other related fields gathered and mutually endorsed a core set of values that later became the Agile
Manifesto. Among these values was a mantra rooted in the principles of Extreme Programming:
"Responding to change over following a plan." This concept, while seemingly simple, reflected a deep
understanding of the nature of the universe and the paPerns of innovaFon and survival within it.
To understand why such a value was recognized, it is crucial to revisit the First Principle of
ComputaFonal Irreducibility. According to this principle, the universe does not know what will
happen unFl it happens; the universe is fundamentally a computaFonal simulaFon unfolding in real-
Fme. This noFon echoes the implicaFons of evoluFon theory where the survival of a species
depends on its ability to adapt to changing environmental condiFons. Here, the environment is the
expanding marketplace, where change is constant and acceleraFng.
Indeed, the dynamics of innovaFon and technological advancement have changed dramaFcally over
the last century. The S Curves idenFfied in the book "Diffusion of InnovaFon" depict the rate of
adopFon for innovaFons over Fme. Historically, these curves have been becoming steeper and more
frequent. In this acceleraFng world, it took ten years to replace horses with cars, but only a month to
amass 100 million users for AI tools like ChatGPT.
The interplay of mulFple innovaFon S curves can result in disrupFve technology events. The
emergence of the iPhone, for instance, combined advancements from many different fields and
ulFmately disrupted and bankrupted previously dominant companies like Nokia. This constant
disrupFon is part of the natural order of a rapidly evolving technological world.
In this context, Peter Diamandis's concept of the "6 D's of ExponenFals" provides valuable insights
into the trajectory of technology adopFon:

1. DigiFzaFon: Any phenomenon, once digiFzed, can be controlled and manipulated with ease.
2. DecepFon: DigiFzed technologies in their iniFal phase of growth may seem insignificant and the
progress negligible.
3. DisrupFon: However, once a technology matures, it starts to disrupt established industries, proving
its superiority.
4. DemoneFzaFon: The digital transformaFon of industries o\en reduces costs, someFmes making
technologies almost free.
5. DematerializaFon: The digiFzaFon process eventually results in the disappearance of physical

products.
6. DemocraFzaFon: Finally, the digital technology becomes affordable and accessible to almost
everyone.
The speed and dynamism of this process require us to develop new ways of thinking and adapFng.
As a fighter pilot in the USAF, I learned that survival o\en depended on one's ability to respond
quickly to unexpected events. Today, the survival of businesses depends on the same agility and
responsiveness.
Frameworks, paPerns, and checklists provide us with a toolkit for rapidly responding to change. In
Scrum, we follow a similar approach, encapsulated in "The Scrum Book: The Spirit of the Game". The
Scrum Emergency Procedure therein is comparable to the ejecFon procedure in a modern fighter
aircra\ manual, tailored to a business environment.
In our fast-paced world, Elon Musk's words ring truer than ever: the only thing that maPers is the
speed of innovaFon. This speed is rapidly acceleraFng, and the next ten years promise more change
and innovaFon than the last 100. In this environment, a framework like Scrum enables us to thrive by
helping us adapt to change swi\ly and effecFvely, making it the dominant framework in today's ever-
evolving industries. In a world marked by exponenFal change, we must embrace the mantra
"Responding to change over following a plan" to align ourselves with reality and ensure our survival.
References
1. Beck K, Beedle M, van Bennekum A, et al. Manifesto for Agile So\ware Development. Agile
Alliance. Published 2001. Accessed May 4, 2023. hPps://agilemanifesto.org/
2. Wolfram S. A New Kind of Science. Wolfram Media; 2002.
3. Rogers EM. Diffusion of InnovaFons. 5th ed. Free Press; 2003.
4. Diamandis PH, Kotler S. Bold: How to Go Big, Create Wealth and Impact the World. Simon &
Schuster; 2015.
5. Flight Manuals Online. "McDonnell-Douglas F-4 Phantom II." Flight Manuals Online,
www.flight-manuals-online.com/product/mcdonnell-douglas-f-4-phantom-
ii/?aPribute_Ftle=Title+1. Accessed 21 May 2023.
6. Sutherland J, Coplien J, and the Scrum PaPerns Group. The Scrum Book: The Spirit of the
Game. PragmaFc Bookshelf; 2021.
7. Musk E. TwiPer post. October 2, 2020. Accessed May 4, 2023.
hPps://twiPer.com/elonmusk/status/1311845995671384064

The Next Best Step and Computa>onal Irreducibility
The Complexity and Importance of Priori)za)on in Scrum

Scrum, an empirical process control framework for agile project management, hinges on the
principle of transparency, inspecFon, and adaptaFon. A key component of this iteraFve, incremental
process is the ability to discern the 'next best step' upon compleFon of each task or 'story'. This
capability shapes system evoluFon, drives progress, and ulFmately enhances project outcomes. At
the heart of this process lies the concept of computaFonal irreducibility, a principle proposed by
Stephen Wolfram that suggests the outcome of a complex system cannot be predicted without
running the enFre process.
PrioriFzaFon is a fundamental issue in Scrum. With trillions of possible 'next best steps', only a
vanishingly small subset will lead to dramaFc success. Choosing the next best step involves not just
considering business value, but also a myriad of factors including Fming, markeFng power,
neuroscience, synchronicity of events, game theory, and more. This complexity underscores the
importance of the Product Owner role in Scrum.
A good Product Owner is criFcal for success and hard to find. They need to have a deep
understanding of the product, the market, and the customers, as well as the ability to make strategic
decisions under uncertainty. Great Product Owners, like Steve Jobs and Elon Musk, always go back to
first principles and celebrate greatness. They are able to cut through the complexity and idenFfy the
'next best steps' that will have the most impact, guiding their teams towards dramaFc success.

This complexity and importance of prioriFzaFon in Scrum underscores the value of the 'next best
step' concept. It is not just about compleFng tasks efficiently, but about making strategic decisions
that drive the project forward and deliver maximum value. This is the essence of empirical process
control in Scrum, and the key to success in agile project management.
The Next Best Step: A Cogni)ve Perspec)ve, Quantum Mechanics, and the
Power of Observa)on
The concept of the 'next best step' aligns with principles of cogniFve neuroscience and quantum
mechanics. Research shows that the brain makes decisions by predicFng and evaluaFng potenFal
outcomes to select the most advantageous course of acFon (O'Doherty, et al., 2017). This parallels
the decision-making process in Scrum, where the next best step is determined by considering
different potenFal tasks and their expected impact on the project.
In the realm of quantum mechanics, the observer effect postulates that the act of observaFon can
influence the phenomenon being observed. Similarly, in Scrum, the conscious decision-making of the
team members, as observers and actors, can influence the direcFon and outcome of the project.
This principle of observaFon influencing outcomes is powerfully exemplified in the Toyota Way, from
which Scrum derives. The Toyota Way is driven by the A3 process, which mirrors the CCORE process
of David Allen's Genng Things Done. The first step is to Capture the problem, detailing the
background and current situaFon with metrics. Then, the problem is Clarified, idenFfying the goal
and the gap between the current state and the goal. This gap triggers neuroscience effects in the
team, focusing their aPenFon and efforts.
Next, opFons are Organized, diving into root cause analysis. Then, the team Reflects on the analysis,
and finally Engages with an intervenFon. This intense clarificaFon and focus on the problem creates
an effect similar to Schrödinger's Cat in quantum mechanics, where the system, which has been a
wave of confusion, pops into reality as a parFcle that can be dealt with.
This process of capturing, clarifying, organizing, reflecFng, and engaging not only aligns with the
'next best step' decision in Scrum, but also demonstrates the power of observaFon in influencing
outcomes. By observing and understanding the problem in detail, the team can make more effecFve
'next best step' decisions, driving the project towards its goals.
Game Theory and Decision Making in Scrum

Game theory, a mathemaFcal model of strategic interacFon, can provide valuable insights into the
'next best step' decision in Scrum. Just as a taxi driver strategically chooses when to work to
maximize income, Scrum teams can strategically prioriFze tasks in the backlog to maximize project
value. This involves considering factors like the potenFal business value of each task, the cost of
delay, and the capacity of the team.
This concept can be further illustrated by looking at modern gig economy plarorms like DoorDash,
Instacart, Uber, or Ly\. Drivers and delivery personnel on these plarorms make strategic decisions
about which jobs to accept based on a variety of factors such as Fme of day, distance, and amount of
purchase. By opFmizing these variables, they can maximize their earnings - a clear applicaFon of
game theory.
Similarly, in Scrum, the team must strategically decide which tasks to tackle next, considering not just
the potenFal value of the task, but also the resources required, the dependencies between tasks,

and the overall project Fmeline. This decision-making process, guided by the principle of taking the
'next best step', is a pracFcal applicaFon of game theory in the context of Scrum.
Driving System Evolu)on via Punctuated Equilibrium and Complex Adap)ve

Systems
The next best step can also drive system evoluFon, similar to the biological theory of punctuated
equilibrium, where species evolve through rapid changes followed by periods of relaFve stability
(Eldredge & Gould, 1972). In a Scrum context, the right small changes, or 'mutaFons', in the system—
like compleFng a parFcular backlog item—can lead to the emergence of new features and a more
flexible architecture.
This process mirrors the dynamics of complex adapFve systems, where autonomous, diverse agents
self-organize and adapt to their environment. In such systems, each agent is constantly determining
its next best step, leading to emergent behavior and evoluFon of the system as a whole. This is a
clear reflecFon of computaFonal irreducibility, as the system's evoluFon cannot be predicted without
running through the enFre process.
The Role of AI: A ChatGPT Analogy and the Emergence of Exper)se

InteresFngly, the next best step concept parallels the funcFoning of AI language models like OpenAI's
ChatGPT. These models generate responses by predicFng the next most likely word, considering the
context provided (Radford, et al., 2019). Similarly, in Scrum, the team must predict the next most
valuable task, considering the current project context. This process is inherently computaFonally
irreducible, as the predicFon can only be made by running the enFre process, just like the AI model
generates the next word based on the enFre context provided.
As the AI model gets bePer at selecFng the 'next best word', it exhibits emergent behavior, becoming
more intelligent and capable. For instance, ChatGPT has demonstrated the ability to perform at high
levels on tasks such as bar exams and medical board exams, outperforming many human
parFcipants. This is a result of the model's ability to effecFvely predict the 'next best word' in a wide
range of contexts, reflecFng a deep understanding of language and knowledge.
A similar phenomenon can be observed in Scrum teams. As the team members gain experience and
become more adept at determining the 'next best step', they can reach a level of high performance
where they consistently deliver high-quality work. This is not just about compleFng tasks efficiently,
but also about understanding the broader context of the project, anFcipaFng potenFal issues, and
making strategic decisions that drive the project forward.
Reaching this level of performance requires struggle and mastery, much like an Olympic athlete
training for their sport. It involves not just technical skills, but also so\ skills like communicaFon,
collaboraFon, and problem-solving. And just as an Olympic athlete doesn't achieve their peak
performance overnight, a high-performing Scrum team is the result of conFnuous learning,
adaptaFon, and improvement.
This analogy between AI models and Scrum teams underscores the importance of the 'next best step'
concept. Whether it's predicFng the next word in a sentence or deciding the next task in a project,
the ability to make effecFve 'next best step' decisions is crucial for achieving high performance.
Leveraging AI for Decision Making

AI, specifically machine learning, could be used to aid the decision-making process in Scrum. By
feeding the right informaFon into a model, it could potenFally suggest the most valuable subsequent
task, saving Fme and enhancing decision-making efficiency (Goodfellow, et al., 2016). For instance,
reinforcement learning, an area of machine learning where an agent learns to make decisions by
interacFng with its environment, could be used to learn the opFmal order of compleFng tasks in the
backlog. This process also embodies computaFonal irreducibility, as the learning process involves
running through the enFre system of interacFons.
The Human Element in Scrum Decision Making

While AI can aid in decision-making, the human element is crucial in Scrum. The 'next best step'
decision involves not just objecFve factors like the potenFal business value of tasks, but also
subjecFve factors like team dynamics, individual skills, and the tacit knowledge of team members.
Therefore, any AI tool used in Scrum decision making should be seen as a support tool, not a
replacement for human judgement. This is a reflecFon of the observer effect in quantum mechanics,
where the act of observaFon can influence the phenomenon being observed, and in this case, the
Scrum project.
Challenges and Poten)al Solu)ons

Despite its potenFal, AI-driven decision-making in Scrum faces challenges including complexity of
variables, accounFng for human factors, adapFng to a changing environment, and the computaFonal
resources required for implementaFon. However, with ongoing advancements in AI and a strong
theoreFcal foundaFon, these challenges could be overcome. The principle of computaFonal
irreducibility suggests that these challenges are inherent in complex systems, and the best way to
navigate them is through iteraFve, empirical processes like Scrum.
Real-World Applica)ons and Case Studies

The narraFve of James Bach, a renowned consultant in the so\ware tesFng industry, provides a real-
world example of the 'next best step' concept. Bach uFlized a system where his wife managed his
business, providing him with the next best step before he finished his current engagement. This
process saved him a considerable amount of Fme, demonstraFng the pracFcal uFlity of the 'next
best step' principle.
Another compelling example comes from the first prototype of Scrum@Scale at MidConFnent
Computer Services, which ran an ATM Business Unit servicing 150 banks all over North America.
IniFally, the unit was spending 30% more than its revenue. However, by implemenFng small
autonomous teams with weekly sprints, burndown charts, and a product owner, a significant
turnaround was achieved. Within six months, they became the most profitable business unit in the
banking company with 30% margins.
The key to this transformaFon was the sprint planning process, where a financial expert joined the
Product Owner and the team to determine the revenue and cost of every story down to the micro
level. This allowed the team to make 'next best step' decisions that maximized financial advantage.
Not only did this approach improve the unit's profitability, but it also demonstrated how Scrum
principles can be applied to achieve strategic business objecFves.
In addiFon to these, there are numerous examples of Scrum teams successfully using the 'next best
step' principle to drive their projects. These case studies could provide valuable insights into how this
principle can be applied in pracFce.

Future Implica)ons: Welcoming AI onto the Scrum Team
The integraFon of AI with Scrum has the potenFal to revoluFonize project management. By aiding in
the 'next best step' decision, AI could help Scrum teams opFmize their workflow, enhance their
efficiency, and deliver higher value projects. As AI technology conFnues to advance, we could see
even more sophisFcated applicaFons of AI in Scrum, such as AI tools that can predict potenFal
impediments or suggest ways to improve team dynamics.
Elon Musk's asserFon that "the factory is the product" underscores the importance of innovaFon in
driving success. In the context of Scrum, this could mean viewing the Scrum team itself as the
'product'. By conFnuously innovaFng and improving the team's processes, tools, and skills, the team
can enhance its 'product' - that is, its ability to deliver high-quality work.
Welcoming AI onto the Scrum team could be a key part of this innovaFon. AI could take on various
roles within the team, such as assisFng with task prioriFzaFon, predicFng potenFal issues, and
providing data-driven insights to inform decision-making. This could free up human team members
to focus on tasks that require creaFvity, criFcal thinking, and human judgement.
Moreover, AI could help Scrum teams tackle increasingly complex and ambiFous projects. With AI's
ability to process large amounts of data and make predicFons, teams could take on projects that
would be too complex or Fme-consuming for humans alone. This could lead to the development of
more innovaFve, useful, and high-quality products.
However, it's important to note that AI should be seen as a tool to augment human capabiliFes, not
replace them. The human element - the creaFvity, intuiFon, and interpersonal skills of the team
members - is crucial to the success of Scrum. Therefore, the future of Scrum may not just be about
integraFng AI, but about finding the right balance between AI and human capabiliFes to drive
innovaFon and success.
Conclusion: The Next Best Step as the Key to Survival and Success
Empirical process control, embodied in the 'next best step', is not just fundamental to Scrum, but
also to survival and success in both evoluFon and business. The ability to make 'next best step'
decisions faster and bePer can provide a compeFFve edge, enabling organisms - or organizaFons - to
adapt and thrive in their environment.
In the context of Scrum, the 'next best step' decision is the hardest and most central problem to
empirical process control. It involves not just technical knowledge and skills, but also a deep
understanding of the project context, strategic thinking, and the ability to anFcipate and adapt to
changes.
By aligning tasks with cogniFve processes, leveraging predicFve models, and harnessing AI, Scrum
teams can enhance their ability to make effecFve 'next best step' decisions. This can lead to
opFmized workflows, enhanced project outcomes, and ulFmately, a stronger compeFFve posiFon in
the marketplace.
The principles of computaFonal irreducibility and complex adapFve systems further underscore the
importance of the 'next best step' in Scrum. These principles suggest that the outcome of a complex
system - like a Scrum project - cannot be predicted without running the enFre process, and that the
system can adapt and evolve through the acFons of its individual agents.

Though challenges exist, the promising synergy between neuroscience, AI, and Scrum points towards
exciFng advancements in agile project management. As we conFnue to explore and innovate in this
space, the 'next best step' will remain at the heart of our efforts, guiding us towards a future where
Scrum teams can deliver even more value, faster and bePer than ever before.
References
1. O'Doherty, J. P., Cockburn, J., & Pauli, W. M. (2017). Learning, Reward, and Decision Making.
Annual Review of Psychology, 68, 73-100.
2. Eldredge, N., & Gould, S. J. (1972). Punctuated equilibria: an alternaFve to phyleFc
gradualism. In T. J. M. Schopf (Ed.), Models in Paleobiology (pp. 82-115). Freeman Cooper.
3. Radford, A., Wu, J., Child, R., Luan, D., Amodei, D., & Sutskever, I. (2019). Language Models
are Unsupervised MulFtask Learners. OpenAI Blog.
4. Goodfellow, I., Bengio, Y., & Courville, A. (2016). Deep Learning. MIT Press.
5. Bach, J. (2003). Lessons Learned in So\ware TesFng: A Context-Driven Approach. Wiley.
6. Sutherland, J., & Sutherland, J. J. (2014). Scrum: The Art of Doing Twice the Work in Half the
Time. Crown Business.
7. Wolfram, S. (2002). A New Kind of Science. Wolfram Media.
8. Musk, E. (2018). The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me) No. 2. Tesla
Blog.

The Secret Sauce of Scrum: Punctuated Equilibrium
Abstract
This paper explores the foundaFonal principles of Scrum, a popular Agile framework, with a focus on
its secret sauce: empirical process control, punctuated equilibrium, and the Next Best Step. We delve
into how these principles were brought to light 30 years ago by the first Scrum team and later
idenFfied as the "Secret Sauce of Scrum" by Google architects. With the advancements in arFficial
intelligence, we discuss the potenFal of enhancing the Scrum process, enabling every team to
implement these principles effecFvely and efficiently.
Introduc)on
Scrum, an agile framework widely adopted across industries, is rooted in evoluFonary theory,
innovaFve technology research, and influenFal scienFfic minds. These origins can be traced back to
the study of biological evoluFon, the pioneering work of Thinking Machines CorporaFon, the
profound influence of Richard Feynman, and the dynamic sphere of technological innovaFon.
Together, these influences have shaped Scrum into the Agile methodology we recognize and use
today.
The Secret Sauce of Scrum: Empirical Process Control and Punctuated

Equilibrium
Scrum's key principles, including empirical process control, are Fed closely to the concept of
punctuated equilibrium—a theory in evoluFonary biology. This theory posits that species experience
long periods of stability, punctuated by brief periods of rapid change. The principle of empirical

process control echoes this theory, emphasizing decision-making based on observaFon and
experimentaFon rather than detailed upfront planning.
By applying these principles to project management, Scrum teams aim to replicate this 'punctuated
equilibrium'. They deliver small increments of value triggering rapid progress, followed by periods of
relaFve stability. This flexibility allows teams to rapidly adapt to shi\ing market condiFons and
customer needs.
The Next Best Step: A Legacy from the First Scrum Team
Thirty years ago, the first Scrum team introduced a unique aspect of Scrum: the Next Best Step. This
approach encourages teams to consider the whole project as an evolving system. By choosing the
right small changes, a ripple effect can be created through the system, triggering rapid evoluFon and
the emergence of new features and a more adaptable architecture.
Jeff Sutherland had the privilege of delivering Google Tech Talks on several occasions and one of
them called “The Secret Sauce of Scrum” did not saFsfy the Google senior architects so then took
Jeff out to dinner. From 6pm to 10pm they pummeled Jeff with quesFons unFl at 10pm they said,
“We’ve got it!” When I asked them what they understood, they said, “It’s all about the architecture.
Every person on the team has to understand the enFre architecture of the system to collecFve select
the Next Best Step.
Later I was in Paris and the French developers told me Google wasn’t doing Scrum any more. When I
asked them what they were doing they said they sat around a table face to face talking and working
together all day. The backlog was on the wall in priority order. It there were any impediments they
were at the stop of the backlog. As soon as someone was free they took the top user story in the
backlog. It they didn’t know anything about it, they learned it.
I realized that (1) they were implemenFng a style of development we created at PaFentKeeper
where teams sat at a table and worked face to face all day, (2) they demanded that every developer
learn to be a full-stack developer so they could understand every part of the system, and (3)
impediments were always at the top of the backlog. They were “Scrumming the Scrum,” a technique
I had first implemented at Scrum Inc. and later developed into a paPern in The Scrum Book: The
Spirit of the Game.
I realized that the Google architects had spread the "Secret Sauce of Scrum". The Next Best Step is
dynamically selected by a team where all understand the total system. This rapidly evolves the
architecture similar to how an evoluFonary species survives and thrives in its ecological niche and
captures the punctuated equilibrium effect. The net result is a rapid acceleraFon of features as
Daniel DenneP describes in Darwin’s Dangerous Idea. And the resulFng smooth evoluFon of the
architecture creates a more resilient and adapFve system.
The Role of AI in Iden)fying the Next Best Step

The advancements in arFficial intelligence offer a unique opportunity to further enhance Scrum
methodology. By feeding AI systems with data from Scrum meeFngs, project management tools, and
the codebase, we can enable the AI to massively simulate and resimulate alternaFve project
pathways and suggest the Next Best Step. This approach could lead to more effecFve project
management, especially for teams with limited cross-funcFonality and visibility into the project's

architecture. Every team could operate more like the teams at Google, PaFentkeeper, and the first
Scrum team.
Conclusion
Scrum has proven its effecFveness in managing complex projects, with its foundaFons deeply
embedded in empirical process control and evoluFonary principles. The concept of the 'Next Best
Step' enriches this methodology by promoFng system evoluFon and efficient decision-making. With
the integraFon of AI into Scrum, we stand on the brink of a revoluFonary change in project
management, enabling teams to make data-driven decisions that drive project progress and enhance
effecFveness.
References
1. Waldrop, M. M. (2001). The Dream Machine: J.C.R. Licklider and the RevoluFon That
Made CompuFng Personal. Penguin Books.
2. Eldredge, N., & Gould, S. J. (1972). Punctuated equilibria: an alternaFve to phyleFc
gradualism. In T. J. M. Schopf (Ed.), Models in Paleobiology (pp. 82-115). San Francisco:
Freeman, Cooper, and Company.
3. Schwaber, K., & Sutherland, J. (2017). The Scrum Guide. ScrumGuides.org.
4. Langton, C. G. (1990). ComputaFon at the edge of chaos: phase transiFons and emergent
computaFon. Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 42(1-3), 12-37.
5. Sutherland, J. (2014). Scrum: The Art of Doing Twice the Work in Half the Time. Crown
Business.
6. Sutherland, J. (2006). The Secret Sauce of Scrum. Google Tech Talk.
7. Sutherland, J. (2005). Future of scrum: parallel pipelining of sprints in complex projects.
In Agile Development Conference (ADC'05) (pp. 90-99). Denver, CO, USA: IEEE.
hPps://doi.org/10.1109/ADC.2005.28
8. Brown, T.B., et al. (2020). Language Models are Few-Shot Learners. OpenAI.
9. Sutherland, J., Coplien, J. O. (2019). A Scrum Book: The Spirit of the Game (1st ed.).
PragmaFc Bookshelf.

How to Make Agile Transforma>ons Successful
Introduc)on
Business agility refers to the ability of an organizaFon to adapt rapidly and cost-efficiently in response
to changes in the business environment. It is the capacity to be responsive, adapFve, and lead
change in the context of a complex and uncertain marketplace. Business agility is not merely about
speed but is the outcome of an organizaFon that is focused on customer-centricity, has a growth
mindset, and leverages technology to its advantage.
In an increasingly volaFle, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) world, business agility is a
criFcal competency for organizaFons to survive and thrive. It enables businesses to innovate and
evolve faster than their compeFFon, thereby gaining a compeFFve advantage. Agile TransformaFons
are one of the dominate strategies to drive business agility.
When I was Aircra\ Commander of an RF4C Phantom flying 100 combat missions over North
Vietnam it was the most heavily defended airspace in the history of aerial warfare. As a result, over
50% of us got shot down. A recent survey by Forbes magazine on Agile TransformaFons found that
53% of them did not met senior management objecFves. Clearly, this is a risky business and we need
to improve our success rate.
If the Failure Rate is 53% Why Do Companies Do Agile Transforma)ons

The rapid evoluFon of the global economy and the increasing pace of technological advancement
have created a landscape where businesses must adapt or risk becoming obsolete. This is parFcularly
evident in the context of Agile transformaFons, which, despite a 53% failure rate, have become a

necessity for many organizaFons. Three key factors are driving this trend: populaFon growth,
technological S-curves, and the rise of arFficial intelligence (AI).
1. PopulaMon Growth and GDP: Over the last century, the global populaFon has grown from 1.8
billion in 1920 to 7.9 billion in 2020, an increase by a factor of 4.4. During the same period, global
GDP has risen from 3.5 trillion to 107.5 trillion internaFonal dollars, an increase by a factor of 30.7.
This indicates that GDP growth has outpaced populaFon growth, suggesFng that the increase in
global talent and the corresponding rise in innovaFon and producFvity have significantly contributed
to economic growth. The rise in populaFon has resulted in a larger pool of potenFal customers and
employees, creaFng more opportuniFes for businesses but also increasing compeFFon.
2. Technological S-Curves: The work of Tony Seba, a renowned thought leader, author, and Silicon
Valley entrepreneur, highlights the concept of technological S-curves. These curves represent the
typical lifecycle of technology adopFon and market penetraFon, starFng slow, then acceleraFng as
adopFon increases, and finally slowing down as saturaFon is reached. Currently, mulFple S-curves
are going exponenFal simultaneously, leading to massive disrupFon in various industries. The
increasing global talent pool and the availability of more funding for startups are acceleraFng these
S-curves, causing incumbent businesses to face significant disrupFon.
3. The Rise of AI: AI is a game-changer in the current technological landscape. It is esFmated that AI
is doubling developer producFvity every year and is projected to eliminate 300 million jobs by 2030.
This rapid advancement in AI is forcing businesses to adapt their pracFces and strategies to stay
compeFFve. The increasing producFvity of developers due to AI is leading to layoffs in some sectors,
while also creaFng opportuniFes for innovaFon and growth in others.
In conclusion, the increasing global populaFon, the acceleraFon of technological S-curves, and the
rise of AI are creaFng a dynamic and compeFFve business environment. These factors are driving the
need for Agile transformaFons as businesses strive to adapt and remain compeFFve. Despite the
high failure rate of Agile transformaFons, businesses are compelled to undertake them to survive
and thrive in this rapidly evolving landscape. The key to successful Agile transformaFon lies in
understanding these driving factors and aligning Agile pracFces with business goals and outcomes.
Business Agility ia Only Agile if it Generates Business Outcomes

Business agility is characterized by:
1. Customer-centricity: Agile businesses are deeply commiPed to delivering value to their customers.
They are adept at understanding customer needs and rapidly delivering soluFons that meet those
needs.
2. Growth mindset: Agile organizaFons foster a culture that embraces change, encourages
innovaFon, and is not afraid to take calculated risks. They view challenges as opportuniFes for
learning and growth.
3. Leveraging technology: Agile businesses use technology as a strategic enabler. They are proficient
at leveraging digital technologies to enhance customer experience, improve operaFonal efficiency,
and create new business models.
4. Responsive decision-making: Agile organizaFons are characterized by flat structures and

decentralized decision-making. Decisions are made quickly and are informed by real-Fme data.

5. AdapMve workforce: Agile businesses have a workforce that is skilled, flexible, and adaptable.
They invest in upskilling and reskilling their employees and promote a culture of conFnuous learning.
6. Resilience: Agile organizaFons are resilient. They have the capacity to absorb shocks, adapt, and
recover quickly from setbacks.
In the context of Scrum, business agility is about delivering maximum value to the customer through
effecFve prioriFzaFon of tasks, conFnuous feedback, and iteraFve development. It's about being
able to quickly pivot or change direcFons in response to changes in the market, customer
preferences, or business strategy.
In essence, business agility is about being able to sense and respond to change effecFvely and
efficiently. It's about being resilient, adaptable, and fast. It's about leading change rather than just
managing or reacFng to it. But how do we measure the impact of specific agile pracFces on the
metrics that senior managers use to determine success of Agile TransformaFons?
How Business Agility Can Change the Game

Tesla, under the leadership of Elon Musk, has emerged as the leading example of business agility. The
company's success can be aPributed to its innovaFve approach to manufacturing, its commitment to
conFnuous improvement, and its ability to adapt quickly to changing market condiFons.
Tesla's business model is characterized by high levels of automaFon, a commitment to quality, and a
relentless focus on innovaFon. The company's manufacturing process is highly automated, with
robots performing many of the tasks tradiFonally done by humans. This automaFon allows Tesla to
produce cars more quickly and efficiently than tradiFonal automakers, resulFng in lower costs and
higher margins.
Tesla's commitment to quality is evident in its approach to tesFng. Each car undergoes a full
regression test in the cloud while it is being built, ensuring that any issues are idenFfied and
addressed before the car leaves the factory. This rigorous tesFng process helps to ensure that every
Tesla car is virtually perfect when it is delivered to the customer.
InnovaFon is at the heart of Tesla's business model. The company is constantly looking for ways to
improve its products and processes, and it is not afraid to take risks in pursuit of these
improvements. For example, Tesla is currently implemenFng more than 20 new hardware/so\ware
features on the assembly line each week. These conFnuous improvements help to keep Tesla at the
forefront of the automoFve industry and contribute to its high levels of customer saFsfacFon.
Tesla's approach to business agility has resulted in impressive financial results. The company's
margins are four Fmes higher than those of its compeFtors, and its market capitalizaFon is almost
four Fmes that of Toyota. It delivers cars bug free in 10 hours where Volkswagen delivers cars in 30
hours with bugs. Tesla views the factory as the product and a new plant under construcFon in
Mexico will cut current producFon costs in half. In the first quarter of 2023, Tesla's Model Y became
the best-selling car in the world, surpassing the Toyota Corolla.
Tesla’s first plant in Fremont, CA, was the Toyota NUMMI plant and before that a General Motors
plant. Some of the same lean experts at GM and Toyota sFll work at Tesla. They have moved beyond
lean and most other agile implementaFons in 3 ways:
• Mob programming is now Mob hardware development

• Management is now Digital Self-Management

• With an owner CEO all silos are busted and everyone innovates together. No-one at Tesla is
hired without being interviewed by the owner.
• For the cost of one engineer making something, an automaFon expert is simultaneously
automaFng the process so it can be done by a Tesla robot. Soon many things will be
manually done only once.
In conclusion, Tesla's success can be aPributed to its commitment to moving beyond any other
companies business agility and taking lean and agile pracFces to the next level. The company’s total
focus on innovaFon speed in manufacturing, its commitment to quality, and its ability to adapt
quickly to changing market condiFons have helped it to achieve financial results far beyond Toyota or
any other car vendor and to establish itself as a leader in the automoFve industry.
How Do We Measure Business Agility

A significant issue in the Agile community is the disconnect between the implementaFon of Agile
pracFces and the achievement of business results. Agile transformaFons o\en focus on hundreds of
good Agile pracFces, but 53% of the Fme, they fail to meet business goals. Clearly, “being Agile” is
not enough. At Tesla, with Digital Self-Management, KPIs and criFcal business metrics are visible
100% of the Fme on TV monitors on the factory floor.
For success, it is criFcal to apply the right Agile pracFces at the right place in the organizaFon for the
right teams to affect the measures that senior managers are held accountable for. Senior leadership
has hundreds of compeFng prioriFes with limited resources. They have limited Fme to make
decisions. They cannot implement or understand the impact of dozens of Agile changes at the same
Fme.
In Scrum@Scale, we have an ExecuFve Metascrum to prioriFze investment and the ExecuFve AcFon
Team to prioriFze change. The next best step for change needs to be prioriFzed by its impact on the
success of the organizaFon. That success is defined by the Board and includes specific business
prioriFes and financial results.
These expected results are o\en not clearly understood by Agile pracFFoners, and pracFFoners
o\en cannot rapidly iterate on delivering these results by clearly explaining the prioriFes of what
Agile techniques should be delivered where and when, resulFng in regular delivery of improvement
in the metrics followed by the Board.
Failure to improve these metrics results in senior management losing their job, and before that
happens, they may terminate Agile pracFFoners. For instance, Capital One laid off 1700 Agile
pracFFoners in a single year.
For this reason, Agile leaders need to do a bePer job at tying Agile pracFces directly to expected
results at the Board level. Happy teams will eventually be unhappy if the Board is not happy. Agile
pracFFoners o\en focus on implemenFng Agile for Agile's sake. Success will occur only when specific
Agile efforts deliver specific business results all the way up to the board level on a regular cadence.

An Example of Great Agile Practices Not Tied to Board Level Metrics
The Business Agility InsFtute describes Business Agility as a set of organizaFonal capabiliFes,
behaviors, and ways of working that provide a business with the freedom, flexibility, and resilience to
achieve its purpose, regardless of what the future brings.
The insFtute presents an operaFng model for agile organizaFons known as the Domains of Business
Agility. This model consists of five primary domains spanning 18 emergent business capabiliFes. The
combinaFon of these domains and capabiliFes determines the current and conFnued effecFveness
of an organizaFon and is expressed through behaviors. The domains and capabiliFes also serve as a
guide to each step of the transformaFon process, from just starFng out to maturity.
However, the Business Agility InsFtute does not provide a specific list of Agile components or
pracFces, nor does it provide direct evidence of the financial results delivered by these pracFces. The
focus is more on the broader capabiliFes and behaviors that might contribute to business agility.
Agile Practices Reported to the Board Must Tie Directly Business

Outcomes
Many Agile transformaFons focus on Agile capabiliFes and behaviors without being able to
demonstrate clear business outcomes. The end result is 53% failed Agile TransformaFons and layoffs
of Agile pracFFoners. To improve these numbers, it's essenFal to measure the impact of Agile
transformaFons in terms of key business metrics that directly Fe to financial results. Here are some
tradiFonal ways to do that:
1. Revenue Growth: Agile organizaFons should be able to bring products to market faster, respond to
market changes more effecFvely, and innovate more rapidly. These capabiliFes should translate into
increased revenue growth. Therefore, one key metric to track is the rate of revenue growth before
and a\er the Agile transformaFon.
2. Profit Margins: Agile transformaFons should lead to more efficient operaFons, which should, in
turn, lead to improved profit margins. By tracking profit margins before and a\er the transformaFon,
you can measure the financial impact of becoming more Agile.
3. Market Share: Agile organizaFons should be bePer posiFoned to compete effecFvely in the
marketplace, leading to increased market share. Comparing market share before and a\er the Agile
transformaFon can provide a measure of its impact.
4. Customer SaMsfacMon: Agile organizaFons should be more responsive to customer needs, leading
to higher levels of customer saFsfacFon. While this is not a direct financial metric, higher customer
saFsfacFon o\en translates into increased customer loyalty, repeat business, and posiFve word-of-
mouth, all of which can have a posiFve impact on financial results.
5. Employee Engagement: Agile transformaFons o\en lead to higher levels of employee

engagement, as employees feel more empowered and have a greater sense of ownership over their
work. While this is also not a direct financial metric, research has shown that companies with high
levels of employee engagement are more profitable.
6. ProducMvity: Agile transformaFons should lead to improvements in producFvity, as teams become

more self-organizing and are able to eliminate waste and inefficiencies. Measuring producFvity
before and a\er the transformaFon can provide a measure of its impact.

7. Time to Market: Agile organizaFons should be able to bring products to market faster, providing a
compeFFve advantage. Tracking Fme to market before and a\er the Agile transformaFon can
provide a measure of its impact.
8. InnovaMon Rate: Agile organizaFons should be more innovaFve, as they are bePer able to respond
to changing customer needs and market condiFons. Tracking the rate of innovaFon (e.g., number of
new products or features introduced) before and a\er the Agile transformaFon can provide a
measure of its impact.
By focusing on these key business metrics, you can Fe the outcomes of Agile transformaFons directly
to financial results, providing a clear business case for Agile and demonstraFng the value of Agile to
CXOs. This, however, is just a starFng point. We need to think more deeply.
Thinking More Deeply About Business Agility

Based on the John Deere case study from Scrum Inc. and the paper "Shock Therapy: A Bootstrap for
Hyper-ProducFve Scrum" by Jeff Sutherland, ScoP Downey, and Björn Granvik, we can bePer
understand the transformaFon of John Deere and how it achieved significant improvements in
performance and stock price.
John Deere, a\er a decade of implemenFng the Scaled Agile Framework (SAFe), had only achieved a
relaFvely flat stock price, not the business results they wanted. They needed to do something
different. They implemented Scrum@Scale in 2019, and the stock price exploded during COVID. The
overall improvement for the corporaFon was 100%, but Scrum@Scale prioriFses the part of the
organizaFon to be improved. John Deere selected the purchasing organizaFon managing supply
chains and contracts. The velocity of Scrum teams in this area improved 1000%, and the rate of
delivery of agricultural equipment improved 1500%, which was the key to revenue growth, margins,
and the stock price.
A bePer way to understand how to transform an organizaFon into a hyperproducFve enterprise is to

use John Boyd’s OODA Loop which is used to drive the operaFonal effecFveness of the U.S. Marine
Corps. In the face of a failure rate as high as the reconnaissance aircra\ loss rate flying combat
missions over North Vietnam we need more effecFve agile business strategies that can be executed
with military precision. The OODA loop provides a valuable framework for understanding and
implemenFng business agility. In this context, business agility can be defined as an organizaFon's
ability to conFnuously cycle through the OODA loop - Observe, Orient, Decide, Act - in response to
rapidly changing business environments. Agile businesses are constantly monitoring their internal
and external environments, interpreFng the data they gather, making informed decisions quickly, and

moving quickly to implement these decisions. This conFnuous cycle of learning and adapFng is what
allows agile businesses to thrive in volaFle, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA)
environments.
1. Observe: Agile businesses are constantly monitoring their internal and external
environments. They gather data on customer behavior, market trends, compeFFve acFviFes,
and technological advancements. This conFnuous observaFon allows them to spot changes
and trends early, giving them more Fme to react.
2. Orient: Agile businesses are adept at interpreFng the data they gather. They understand
their own capabiliFes and limitaFons, and they can quickly make sense of new informaFon in
the context of their strategic objecFves. This ability to orient themselves in a changing
landscape enables them to idenFfy opportuniFes and threats more accurately.
3. Decide: Agile businesses are decisive. They use the insights gained from their observaFon
and orientaFon to make informed decisions quickly. They understand that in a rapidly
changing environment, the ability to make quick, data-driven decisions is crucial.
4. Act: Agile businesses are acFon-oriented. Once a decision is made, they move quickly to
implement it. They understand that speed is of the essence in a volaFle business
environment, and they have the structures and processes in place to act swi\ly and
effecFvely.
In essence, business agility, in the context of the OODA loop, is about conFnuously cycling through
these four stages in response to a changing business environment. It's about observing changes,
orienFng the business in response, making quick and informed decisions, and acFng swi\ly and
effecFvely. This conFnuous cycle of learning and adapFng is what allows agile businesses to thrive in
volaFle, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) environments.
With the OODA Loop We Can Look at Metrics for Business Agility
Measuring the effecFveness of the OODA loop in a business context can be challenging, as it involves
both qualitaFve and quanFtaFve aspects. However, here are some potenFal metrics that could be
used:
1. ObservaMon Metrics: These could include measures of the breadth and depth of data
collected about the market, customers, compeFtors, and internal operaFons. Metrics might
include the number of data sources used, the frequency of data collecFon, and the variety of
data types collected.
2. OrientaMon Metrics: These could involve measures of how effecFvely the organizaFon
interprets and understands the data it collects. This might involve assessing the accuracy of
predicFons made based on the data, or the speed at which new insights are generated.
3. Decision Metrics: These could include measures of the speed and effecFveness of decision-
making processes. For example, you might measure the average Fme it takes for decisions to
be made once data has been collected and interpreted, or the proporFon of decisions that
achieve their intended outcomes.
4. AcMon Metrics: These could involve measures of how quickly and effecFvely the organizaFon
implements its decisions. This might involve measuring the Fme it takes to go from decision
to acFon, or the proporFon of acFons that achieve their intended results.

5. Overall OODA Loop Speed: This would be a measure of how quickly the organizaFon can
cycle through the enFre OODA loop. This could be calculated as the sum of the average Fmes
for each of the four stages.
6. Adaptability Metrics: These could involve measures of how effecFvely the organizaFon
adapts its strategies and operaFons in response to changes in its environment. This might
involve measuring the frequency of strategy adjustments, or the proporFon of adjustments
that lead to improved performance.
The goal of using the OODA loop is to make bePer decisions faster. Therefore, any metrics used
should help the organizaFon understand how well it's achieving this goal. We know from the
Standish Group data that the primary measure of project success for millions of projects is shorter
decision Fme.
Example of How Decision Speed Affects Business Agility

The chart below is a case study by Registered Scrum Trainer, Fabian Schwartz, on an oil company in
South America. They decided to use Scrum@Scale during the exploraFon process. Time to drill a well
averaged about a month. Shortening the Fme of delivery using Scrum@Scale would not only cut
costs but drive a faster rate of discovery of new resources, a perfect opportunity to drive value up in
the process of cunng cost.
The chief execuFve of the division doing the drilling decided he would be Chief Product Owner to
lead the Enterprise Metascrum to decide on prioriFes and to use his management team as an
ExecuFve AcFon Team meeFng daily to resolve impediments in the field. They cut the average drill
Fme to about 4 days. This radically reduced cost to drill a well and significantly increased new energy
discoverys as they could drill many more wells in a shorter Fme frame.
The chief execuFve aPributed this result to the rapid decision Fme of the execuFve team. Problems
in the field that used to take weeks to resolve were now typically fixed in a few hours. So how could

we used OODA loop decision metrics to help other organizaFons do what this company executed so
well?
OODA Loop Decision Metrics

To measure the effecFveness of the OODA loop in a business context, we could consider metrics that
reflect the speed and quality of decision-making. Here are a few possibiliFes:
1. Decision-making speed: This could be measured as the average Fme it takes for a decision to
be made once a new piece of informaFon or a change in circumstances is observed. This
would directly reflect the speed of the OODA loop.
2. Decision implementaMon speed: This is the average Fme it takes for a decision to be
implemented once it's made. This would reflect the 'Act' part of the OODA loop.
3. Decision accuracy: This could be measured by looking at the outcomes of decisions and
seeing how o\en they lead to the desired results. This would reflect the quality of the
'Orient' and 'Decide' parts of the OODA loop.
4. Adaptability: This could be measured by looking at how o\en the organizaFon changes its
decisions or course of acFon in response to new informaFon or changes in circumstances.
This would reflect the iteraFve nature of the OODA loop.
5. Business outcomes: UlFmately, the goal of using the OODA loop is to improve business
outcomes. Therefore, metrics like revenue growth, customer saFsfacFon, and market share
could be used to measure the overall effecFveness of the OODA loop in driving business
success.
This means in the context of measuring Agile processes, we should prioriFze business improvements
with Scrum@Scale and then execute an OODA loop on the top priority. We should measure decision
speed, implementaFon, accuracy, speed of adaptaFon and business outcome, then execute the next
OODA loop. When we have one or more results every sprint, we can start to project exactly what
agile improvements impact business agility in a specific context to give the best financial result.
References:
1. Sutherland, J., & Sutherland, J. J. (2014). Scrum: The art of doing twice the work in half the
Fme. Crown Business.
2. Sutherland, J., Downey, S., & Granvik, B. (2009). Shock Therapy: A Bootstrap for Hyper-
ProducFve Scrum. Retrieved from hPps://jeffsutherland.com/shock-therapy/
3. Sutherland, J. (2020). Scrum@Scale guide. Retrieved from
hPps://www.scrumatscale.com/scrum-at-scale-guide/
4. Bullock, T. (2022). Agile Unleashed at Scale: John Deere Case Study. Scrum Inc. Retrieved
from hPps://www.scruminc.com/search/john%20deere/
6. Tesla, Inc. (2023). Tesla Q1 2023 Vehicle ProducFon & Deliveries. Retrieved from
hPps://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q1-2023-vehicle-producFon-deliveries
7. Boyd, J. R. (1987). A Discourse on Winning and Losing. Air University Library Document No.
M-U 43947.
8. Richards, C. (2004). Certain to Win: The Strategy of John Boyd, Applied to Business. Xlibris,
Corp.

Mar>al Arts, Shock Therapy, and Scrum
Shock Therapy Controversy

Agile development is o\en fraught with challenges, misconcepFons, and resistance. One of my
controversial approaches to Agile development is the Shock Therapy method, a model for developing
high-performance Scrum teams. This method, introduced in the paper "Shock Therapy:
Bootstrapping HyperproducFve Scrum," has sparked debate among Agile developers due to its
forceful and fully implemented Scrum approach led by an experienced coach.
The controversy surrounding Shock Therapy stems from its stringent enforcement of Scrum rules and
pracFces, which some perceive as too rigid or authoritarian. However, it is precisely this strict
adherence to Scrum principles that enables teams to quickly achieve a high-performing state. ScoP
and I presented this paper at the leading Agile conference in 2009 and got a standing ovaFon from
hundreds of people so we managed to communicate the benefit in a way that may not be obvious
from the paper.
The world of Agile development is a complex one, o\en requiring a deep understanding of various
principles and methodologies to navigate successfully. One such principle is the concept of "First
Principles," a foundaFonal truth that cannot be deduced from any other proposiFon or assumpFon.
In the context of Scrum, these principles are the bedrock upon which all other pracFces and
processes are built.
As the co-creator of Scrum, I’m a proponent of First Principles. My journey in understanding and
applying these principles was significantly influenced by training in marFal arts, specifically Aikido,
under two of Morihei Ueshiba's direct disciples, Gaku Homma and Mitsunari Kanai.
Aikido Sensei Gaku Homma: 5th Degree Dan

The Shock Therapy approach is deeply rooted in the principles of Aikido, a Japanese marFal art that
emphasizes harmony and the redirecFon of opposing forces. I trained in Aikido under two direct

disciples of Morihei Ueshiba, the founder. These disciples were Gaku Homma in Denver in the 1980s
and Mitsunari Kanai in Cambridge in the 1990s. Key principles embedded in Scrum I learned from
these experts.
Gaku Homma, the last live-in student of Ueshiba, is known for his emphasis on pracFcal applicaFon
and his commitment to teaching Aikido as a holisFc discipline. His teachings influenced my approach
to Scrum, parFcularly in the emphasis on pracFcal, hands-on experience and the holisFc view of
team dynamics. I studied under him specifically to learn the mindset of Aikido from a disciple of the
founder.
Aikido Sensei Mitsunari Kinai: 8th Degree Dan

In the 1990s, while creaFng Scrum, I also trained under Mitsunari Kanai in Cambridge,
MassachusePs. Kanai, known for his dynamic and powerful style, was one of Ueshiba's most senior
students. His teachings reinforced in the importance of discipline, precision, and the dynamic
interplay of forces within a team. He could throw mulFple aPackers across the room without
touching them. His Ki was like the force of a large truck driving though the room. Yet he always
worked with beginners and when he threw me through the air in his dojo, his Ki would land me on
the mat like laying a baby in a cradle. I am profoundly grateful for experiencing the mastery of one of
the most accomplished disciples of the founder.
The influence of these marFal arts principles is evident in the Shock Therapy approach. Just as in
Aikido, where pracFFoners must adhere strictly to form and technique before they can effecFvely
improvise, Shock Therapy insists on strict adherence to Scrum principles and pracFces as a
foundaFon for high performance.
Dunning Kruger Effect – Neuroscience Effects

However, understanding and applying First Principles is not without its challenges. The Dunning-
Kruger effect, a cogniFve bias where individuals with low ability at a task overesFmate their ability, is
a common obstacle (Wikipedia, 2021d). Inexperienced pracFFoners overesFmate their experFse
while experts underesFmate their prowess. We o\en seen this effect in new Scrum teams, where
individuals believe they understand and are applying the principles of Scrum, but in reality, are not.
This leads to ineffecFve pracFces and processes, ulFmately resulFng in the failure of the Scrum team.
To overcome this, we developed a method known as "Shock Therapy." This approach, detailed in the
paper "Shock Therapy: A Bootstrap for Hyper-ProducFve Scrum," involves a strict adherence to
Scrum pracFces for a few Sprints to reset the team's habits and establish a baseline of funcFonality.
The method has been controversial, but it has also proven effecFve, leading to self-organizing teams
that consistently deliver high-quality results.
Hyperproduc)vity is the Norm

The results certainly speak for themselves. Teams that underwent Shock Therapy in our paper all saw
their velocity increase by several hundred percent. Many teams have implemented Shock Therapy
since the wriFng of the paper with dramaFc success. This improvement is a testament to the power
of disciplined pracFce, conFnuous improvement, and the relentless pursuit of excellence - principles
that are at the heart of both Aikido and Scrum.
Conclusion

In conclusion, the principles of Aikido, as taught by Morihei Ueshiba, Gaku Homma, and Mitsunari
Kanai, have significantly influenced my approach to Scrum. The concept of First Principles, coupled
with the method of Shock Therapy, provides a robust framework for understanding and applying
Scrum effecFvely. However, it requires a deep understanding of these principles and a willingness to
confront and overcome cogniFve biases like the Dunning-Kruger effect. For those teams that do, the
rewards can be extraordinary.
References:
1. Dunning, D., & Kruger, J. (1999). Unskilled and unaware of it: How difficulFes in recognizing
one's own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments. Journal of Personality and Social
Psychology, 77(6), 1121–1134. Link
2. Wikipedia. (2021). Morihei Ueshiba. Retrieved from Link
3. Wikipedia. (2021). Gaku Homma. Retrieved from Link
4. Wikipedia. (2021). Mitsunari Kanai. Retrieved from Link
5. Sutherland, J., & Downey, S. (2009). Shock Therapy: A Bootstrap for Hyper-ProducFve Scrum.
IEEE. Retrieved from Link
6. M. Beedle, M. Devos, Y. Sharon, K. Schwaber, and J. Sutherland, "Scrum: A PaPern Language
for HyperproducFve So\ware Development," in PaPern Languages of Program Design. vol. 4,
N. Harrison, Ed. Boston: Addison-Wesley, 1999, pp. 637-651.
7. Aikido Jo Performance by Gaku Homma Kancho, Nippon Kan Parma, Italy, YouTube
hPps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fR0Ef5RhEWA
8. Aidido Founder Ueshiba, YouTube
hPps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1LELJJkFIxk&list=PLkuIqXoK7jLki3NV8CnJg6LYiH0vsPJeh
&index=6
1.

Scrumming the Scrum: An Intersec>on of Produc>vity,
Happiness, and Neuroscience
The Happiness Metric

In 2010, while I was consulFng in Stockholm, I was exposed to a unique approach by Henrik Kniberg's
company. They were using the Happiness Metric to increase employee saFsfacFon, which, in turn,
was driving the company's revenue growth. The correlaFon was clear - happiness led to producFvity
and prosperity. The concept was intriguing and triggered a chain of thought in my mind.
Scrumming the Scrum

I subsequently found myself in Paris, delivering Scrum training. Here, I encountered a lean expert
from one of France's largest companies. He challenged my teaching methods, staFng I was failing to
"Scrum the Scrum." Intrigued, I asked him to elaborate. He explained that Scrum could be used to
improve itself by idenFfying the impediment in the retrospecFve that would yield maximum benefit
for the least effort. This highlighted impediment would then become the highest priority story in the
next sprint backlog, enabling the team to improve significantly with each sprint. It was a powerful
noFon, senng the stage for the evoluFon of my thinking.
Returning to Scrum Inc., I decided to experiment with this concept of "Scrumming the Scrum". Our
small team, incubated within OpenView Venture Partners' space in South Boston, was struggling with
the less-than-ideal condiFons. Noise and subpar treatment were dampening our spirits. Combining
the Happiness Metric and the concept of "Scrumming the Scrum," we idenFfied a new, bePer
workspace as our Next Best Step - our top priority to remove in the upcoming sprint.
Hyperproduc)vity: Twice the Work in Half the Time

The transformaFon was significant. Our relocaFon to the Cambridge InnovaFon Center resulted in a
dramaFc increase in our team's velocity, almost 500% - an echo of the growth observed with the first

Scrum team at Easel Corp in 1993. This exercise reinforced the idea that the Happiness Metric was an
invaluable tool in determining the Next Best Step, leading to accelerated producFvity and growth.
Brain Science and Hard Data

Fast forward to the present day, my exploraFon into the realm of producFvity and happiness has
grown. I've founded a healthcare startup and developed the TEHS Framework (Twice the Energy with
Half the Stress) for healthcare. A recommendaFon from my doctor, a leading longevity specialist, led
me to a Garmin Solar Fenix 7 Sapphire watch. This device, laden with analyFcs from FirstBeat.com,
provided a comprehensive display of physical parameters, including Body BaPery - a reflecFon of
energy levels and stress.
Keeping my energy high and stress low, I discovered, put me in a state of flow. I was more producFve
and, as the day ended, I realized I was happy. My objecFve became clear: to raise the energy level of
the team while reducing stress, leading to significantly increased producFvity and happiness.
The most recent revelaFon, however, has brought an enFrely new dimension to this pursuit - the
involvement of neuroscience. A unique diagnosFc test offered by Dr. Grossman unveiled my brain
chemistry, revealing a biochemical predisposiFon to happiness. My neurotransmiPers, like serotonin
and dopamine, were operaFng in such a way that a state of enduring happiness became my default
senng.
Conclusion
This understanding broadened my perspecFve on Scrum and the Happiness Metric. What started as
a tool to gauge team saFsfacFon now stands at the cusp of a deeper scienFfic understanding of
human happiness and producFvity. The future of Scrum is at the exciFng intersecFon of
neuroscience, where producFvity is not just about managing work and stress but about chemically
condiFoning the brain towards happiness. Scrum, as we know it, holds immense promise for the
future, hinFng at possibiliFes that are almost limitless.
References
1. Kniberg, H., & Ivarsson, A. (2012). "Scaling Agile @ SpoFfy with Tribes, Squads, Chapters & Guilds".
This paper can be used to understand the Happiness Metric's implementaFon at SpoFfy and how it
contributed to the company's success.
2. Sutherland, J. and Sutherland, JJ (2014). "Scrum: The Art of Doing Twice the Work in Half the
Time". This paper offers insights into the methodology of Scrum and its effects on team producFvity.

3. Larsson, J., & Holmström Olsson, H. (2019). "Happiness Metrics in So\ware Development Teams".
In Agile Processes in So\ware Engineering and Extreme Programming – Workshops. This paper
provides a study on how the happiness metric can be beneficial in so\ware development teams.
4. Black, D. W., & Grant, J. E. (2014). "The EssenFal Companion to the DiagnosFc and StaFsFcal
Manual of Mental Disorders, Fi\h EdiFon". This paper gives insights into the neuroscience behind
happiness and its effect on producFvity.
5. Kinnunen, H., Härmä, M., Pakarinen, J., Kinnunen, U., JuuF, T., Lindblom, N., ... & Lindholm, H.
(2010). "Firstbeat method: 24-h heart rate variability analysis in esFmaFng stress, recovery and
physical acFvity". This paper discusses the 24/7 monitoring system implemented in the Garmin Solar
Fenix Sapphire 7 watch, and how it's related to stress and energy levels.
6. Chida, Y., & Steptoe, A. (2008). "PosiFve psychological well-being and mortality: A quanFtaFve
review of prospecFve observaFonal studies". PsychosomaFc medicine, 70(7), 741-756. This paper
delves into the associaFon between posiFve psychological well-being and physical health,
substanFaFng the potenFal of the TEHS framework.
7. Berridge, K. C., & Kringelbach, M. L. (2015). "Pleasure systems in the brain". Neuron, 86(3), 646-
664. This arFcle offers insights into the neuroscience behind pleasure and happiness, including the
role of dopamine and serotonin.

Embracing the Power of Intransi>ve Compe>>on: The
Key to Unleashing Diversity and Innova>on in Scrum
Teams
Background
Diversity is a fundamental aspect of complex adapFve systems (CAS), a concept rooted in the study
of evoluFonary adaptaFon simulated through computaFonal models. This principle is intrinsically
linked to the idea of computaFonal irreducibility in physics, which posits that the universe's future
states cannot be known unFl they occur. This principle underpins the inspect-and-adapt cycle in
Scrum, leading to the emergence of phenomena such as relaFvity and quantum mechanics.
In this paper, we aim to illustrate how diversity contributes to the enhancement of ecosystems,
whether in nature or within the context of an Agile TransformaFon. We argue that diversity, much
like in a complex adapFve system, fosters adaptability, resilience, and ulFmately, a more robust
system. By drawing parallels between natural ecosystems and Agile TransformaFons, we hope to
shed light on the importance of diversity in driving innovaFon and adaptability in any system.
Introduc)on
The world of nature is a magnificent, intricate tapestry of relaFonships and interacFons. As we delve
deeper into the complexiFes of ecological systems, we uncover invaluable lessons that can be
applied to other aspects of our lives, including the way we approach work and collaboraFon. An April
2023 study on ant species in a Puerto Rican coffee farm has provided us with a powerful metaphor
for understanding the diversity principle in complex adapFve systems, such as Scrum. Here we
explore how the concept of intransiFve compeFFon can inspire us to create more dynamic, resilient,
and innovaFve Scrum teams.
The Power of Intransi)ve Compe))on

IntransiFve compeFFon, as observed in the ant community at the coffee farm, is characterized by a
cyclical relaFonship among species, where no single species dominates the others. This dynamic
structure promotes species coexistence and increases biodiversity, leading to a more resilient and
diverse ecosystem.
When applied to Scrum, intransiFve compeFFon serves as a reminder that we should not strive for a
single dominant strategy or approach. Instead, we should embrace the dynamic nature of complex
adapFve systems, allowing our teams to conFnually adapt, iterate, and self-organize in response to
changing requirements and project goals. Diversity is not “nice to have.” It is a criFcal component of
effecFve autonomous teams.
Unleashing Diversity and Innova)on in Scrum Teams

Encourage diverse perspecFves: Just as intransiFve compeFFon fosters biodiversity, fostering a
diverse team composiFon can lead to a wealth of different perspecFves and creaFve problem-solving
approaches. Encourage team members to share their unique experiences, skills, and ideas to create a
more innovaFve and adaptable team.
Embrace adaptability and conFnuous improvement: The heart of Scrum lies in its ability to adapt and
evolve. Emphasize the importance of regular feedback, retrospecFves, and conFnuous improvement,
allowing your team to learn from their experiences and fine-tune their processes.
Foster a culture of collaboraFon and experimentaFon: IntransiFve compeFFon thrives in an

environment where species are free to interact and adapt. Similarly, Scrum teams should be
encouraged to collaborate, experiment, and learn from one another. Create a safe space for team
members to take risks, try new approaches, and learn from their failures.
Break down hierarchies: Hierarchical structures can sFfle creaFvity and limit the potenFal for
intransiFve compeFFon to thrive. Encourage open communicaFon and shared decision-making,
allowing all team members to contribute their ideas and experFse to the project.
Focus on outcomes, not processes: While it's essenFal to have a solid Scrum framework in place, it's
crucial not to become overly reliant on a single dominant process. Instead, focus on achieving the
desired outcomes, allowing your team the flexibility to adapt and iterate as needed.
Conclusion
IntransiFve compeFFon offers a powerful metaphor for understanding and embracing the diversity
principle in complex adapFve systems like Scrum. By fostering diverse perspecFves, embracing
adaptability, and encouraging collaboraFon and experimentaFon, we can create more dynamic,
resilient, and innovaFve Scrum teams, ready to tackle the challenges of an ever-changing world. Let
the lessons from nature inspire you to unleash the full potenFal of your Scrum team and harness the
power of intransiFve compeFFon for success.
References
1. J. Vandermeer and I. Perfecto, "IntransiFvity as a dynamic assembly engine of compeFFve
communiFes," Proceedings of the NaFonal Academy of Sciences, vol. 120, no. 15, arFcle
e2217372120, Apr. 2023.
2. Hidden Order: How AdaptaFon Builds Complexity, John H. Holland, 1995. Addison-Wesley,
New York, NY. 185 pages. ISBN: 0-201-40793-0.

3. S. J. Gould, The Structure of EvoluFonary Theory. Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press of Harvard
University Press, 2002.

The Confluence of First Principles, Scrum, Product
Teams, and Design Thinking: A Deep Dive into Agile
Product Development
Introduc)on
The world of product development is a complex and dynamic environment, where the need for
efficient and effecFve strategies is paramount. The concepts of First Principles, Scrum, Product
Teams, and Design Thinking have emerged as powerful tools in this arena, each contribuFng unique
perspecFves and methodologies to the process. This essay explores the interplay of these concepts,
and how they can be harnessed to drive successful product development.
First Principles
First principles thinking is a problem-solving approach that involves breaking down complex
problems into basic, self-evident principles or truths. This approach encourages us to challenge
assumpFons, quesFon established pracFces, and create new soluFons from the ground up. In the
context of product development, first principles thinking can be used to challenge the status quo and
drive innovaFon.
Scrum
Scrum is an agile framework for managing complex projects, o\en used in so\ware development.It
emphasizes iteraFve progress, team collaboraFon, and the flexibility to adapt to changing

requirements. Scrum encourages teams to learn from experiences, self-organize while working on a
problem, and reflect on their wins and losses to conFnuously improve.
Product Teams
Product teams are cross-funcFonal groups responsible for managing a product from concepFon to its
end of life. They typically include members with a variety of skills and backgrounds, such as product
managers, engineers, designers, and marketers. The key to a successful product team is the ability to
work together towards a common goal, with each member contribuFng their unique skills and
perspecFves.
Design Thinking
Design thinking is a human-centered approach to innovaFon that draws from the designer's toolkit
to integrate the needs of people, the possibiliFes of technology, and the requirements for business
success. It involves five stages: empathize, define, ideate, prototype, and test. Design thinking
encourages teams to focus on the user's needs at every step of the process, leading to more effecFve
and user-friendly products.
The Confluence
The confluence of these four concepts creates a powerful framework for product development. First
principles thinking provides the foundaFon, encouraging teams to challenge assumpFons and think
creaFvely. Scrum provides the structure, with its iteraFve approach and emphasis on team
collaboraFon. Product teams bring together a diverse range of skills and perspecFves, while design
thinking ensures a focus on the user's needs.
In this framework, each concept informs and enhances the others. For example, the iteraFve nature
of Scrum aligns with the prototyping and tesFng stages of design thinking. Similarly, the diverse
perspecFves within product teams can fuel the creaFve problem-solving encouraged by first
principles thinking.
The Confluence: A Deeper Explora)on

The confluence of First Principles, Scrum, Product Teams, and Design Thinking creates a robust and
dynamic framework for product development. This framework is not merely a combinaFon of these
concepts but a symbioFc ecosystem where each concept feeds into and enhances the others,
creaFng a whole that is greater than the sum of its parts.
First Principles thinking serves as the bedrock of this framework. It encourages teams to quesFon
assumpFons, challenge established norms, and approach problems from a fundamental level. This
mindset is crucial in the rapidly evolving landscape of product development, where innovaFon and
adaptability are key. It ensures that the team does not get stuck in tradiFonal ways of thinking and is
always open to new ideas and approaches.
Scrum, with its iteraFve and incremental approach, provides the structure for this innovaFon to take
place. It allows for quick prototyping and tesFng, ensuring that the product is conFnually improving
and adapFng to changing requirements. The Scrum framework also fosters a collaboraFve
environment where each team member is encouraged to contribute their ideas and experFse. This
aligns perfectly with the principles of Design Thinking, which emphasizes empathy, experimentaFon,
and iteraFon.

Product Teams are at the heart of this confluence. They are the ones who bring together diverse
skills and perspecFves, fostering a culture of collaboraFon and shared ownership. In this
environment, designers are not just implementers of tasks; they are problem solvers who contribute
to the overall strategy and vision of the product. This aligns with the principles of Design Thinking,
which advocates for a user-centric approach to product development. Designers in a product team
are thus empowered to advocate for the user, ensuring that their needs are at the forefront of all
decision-making processes.
Design Thinking serves as the guiding philosophy for this framework. It ensures that the product
development process remains human-centered, with a focus on meeFng the needs of the user.
Design Thinking also encourages a culture of experimentaFon and learning, which aligns with the
iteraFve nature of Scrum. It ensures that each iteraFon of the product is informed by user feedback
and real-world tesFng, leading to a product that is not only funcFonal but also resonates with the
users.
In this confluence, the iteraFve nature of Scrum complements the prototyping and tesFng stages of
Design Thinking. The diverse perspecFves within Product Teams fuel the creaFve problem-solving
encouraged by First Principles thinking. The user-centric approach of Design Thinking ensures that
the product remains relevant and valuable to the users. This confluence creates a dynamic and
adaptable framework that is capable of navigaFng the complexiFes and uncertainFes of product
development.
In conclusion, the confluence of First Principles, Scrum, Product Teams, and Design Thinking provides
a comprehensive and flexible framework for product development. It leverages the strengths of each
concept to create a holisFc approach that is capable of driving innovaFon, delivering value, and
achieving success in the ever-evolving landscape of product development.
The Driving First Principles

The confluence of First Principles, Scrum, Product Teams, and Design Thinking is not a mere
coincidence or a fashionable trend in product development. It is driven by fundamental principles
that govern not only product development but also the universe itself.
The principle of ComputaFonal Irreducibility, as proposed by Stephen Wolfram, suggests that

complex systems cannot be simplified or predicted without performing each step. This principle is at
the heart of Scrum and Google's Design Sprints, where product development is broken down into
iteraFve cycles. Each cycle or sprint results in a working prototype that is presented to the customer
for feedback. The feedback then informs the next sprint, and the process conFnues, iteraFng on the
prototype unFl a minimum viable product (MVP) is achieved. This iteraFve process aligns with the
principle of ComputaFonal Irreducibility, acknowledging that we cannot leap to the final product
without going through each step of the process.
Quantum Mechanics, another fundamental principle of the universe, also plays a role in this
confluence. Quantum Mechanics suggests that the universe is staFsFcal and that parFcles do not
take a definite form unFl observed. This principle is mirrored in the process of product development,
where concrete prototypes do not take a definite form unFl they are tested and observed by users.
This user feedback then informs the next iteraFon of the prototype, similar to how an observer
influences the state of a parFcle in Quantum Mechanics.
The principles of evoluFon and Complex AdapFve Systems (CAS) theory further reinforce this
confluence. In evoluFon, diverse species adapt and compete for survival. Similarly, in product

development, diverse teams collaborate and adapt to create innovaFve soluFons. This process
generates new features and improvements, akin to the emergence of new species in evoluFon. The
compeFFon among these features in the market is reminiscent of the survival of the fiPest in
evoluFon.
The concept of Diffusion of InnovaFon, as described by Prof. Rogers at Stanford, and the idea of
"Crossing the Chasm" by Geoffrey Moore also align with these principles. They suggest that for a
product to achieve market dominaFon, it must successfully navigate the chasm between early
adopters and the early majority. This process is akin to a species adapFng and evolving to survive in a
new environment.
In conclusion, the confluence of First Principles, Scrum, Product Teams, and Design Thinking in
product development is driven by fundamental principles that govern the universe. These principles
provide a scienFfic and philosophical foundaFon for this confluence, reinforcing its effecFveness and
relevance in the ever-evolving landscape of product development. By understanding and applying
these principles, teams can navigate the complexiFes of product development, drive innovaFon, and
ulFmately achieve success in their market space.
References
1. Wolfram, S. (2020). A Project to Find the Fundamental Theory of Physics. Wolfram
Media. [Link](hPps://www.wolframphysics.org/)
2. Moore, G. A. (1991). Crossing the Chasm: MarkeFng and Selling High-Tech Products to
Mainstream Customers. HarperBusiness.
3. Rogers, E. M. (2003). Diffusion of InnovaFons, 5th EdiFon. Free Press.
4. VePerli, C., Uebernickel, F., Brenner, W., Häger, F., Kowark, T., Krüger, J., Müller, J.,
PlaPner, H., Stortz, B., & Sikkha, V. (2013). JumpstarFng Scrum with Design Thinking.
University of St.Gallen for Business AdministraFon, Economics, Law and Social Sciences
(HSG), InsFtute of InformaFon Management.
5. Knapp, J., Zeratsky, J., & Kowitz, B. (2016). Sprint: How to Solve Big Problems and Test
New Ideas in Just Five Days. Simon & Schuster.
6. Cagan, M. (2020). EMPOWERED: Ordinary People, Extraordinary Products. Silicon Valley
Product Group.
7. Gribbin, J. (2012). In Search of Schrödinger's Cat: Quantum Physics and Reality. Bantam.
8. Gould, S. J. (2002). The Structure of EvoluFonary Theory. Belknap Press.
9. Holland, J. H. (2014). Complexity: A Very Short IntroducFon. Oxford University Press.

Why Management Won't Help
In the world of Scrum—an iteraFve project management approach that fosters collaboraFon,
learning, and rapid iteraFon—there is a persistent quesFon that surfaces in the minds of its
dedicated pracFFoners: why won't management help? This issue is not born of incompetence or
misunderstanding on the part of Scrum devotees, but rather a larger problem, nestled within the
roots of managerial pracFces and tradiFonal business educaFon. Three publicaFons provide insights
into this issue, and we'll explore them to understand this problem and suggest possible soluFons.
In 2016, I collaborated on a piece Ftled "Embracing Agile," published in the Harvard Business Review
(HBR). This arFcle outlined seven key piralls managers o\en encounter when aPempFng to
implement Agile transformaFons (Rigby, Sutherland, & Takeuchi, 2016). A telling anecdote that
followed this publicaFon was when HBR's own senior management asked their IT team whether they
were guilty of any of these missteps. The team candidly admiPed they were guilty of all seven,
illustraFng the pervasiveness of these managerial hurdles.
This problem, however, runs deeper than a few common mistakes. "The Puritan Gi\," a book by
Kenneth and William Hopper, aPributes the issue to a criFcal shi\ in the business world in the mid-
20th century. The managerial role transformed from pracFFoner-managers—those possessing
detailed knowledge and experience in their area of oversight—to professional managers, who are
o\en distant from the real work being performed by their teams. This transiFon, the Hoppers argue,
leads to a host of management issues, including a reluctance or incapability to support Agile
transformaFons (Hopper & Hopper, 2007). A leading reviewer of this book says, “if you read it from
cover to cover you may never, ever, need to read another management book again.”

The Hoppers further criFque business schools for their role in this problem, as they tend to focus
heavily on financial analyFcs, consequently downplaying the importance of hands-on leadership. This
criFque resonates with the observaFons made by Professor Hirotaka Takeuchi, a business strategy
expert at Harvard Business School (HBS). He rouFnely demonstrates to his students how numerous
successful companies originally started with small, self-organizing teams under hands-on leadership.
In his course, Professor Takeuchi introduces Agile as a core management principle and challenges his
students—parFcularly those hailing from Japan—to abandon their conservaFve approaches to bePer
compete in the contemporary economy.
Professor Ikujiro Nonaka, known as the Godfather of Scrum in Japan and an esteemed academic, has
personally expressed concern over Japan's declining innovaFon, deeming it a significant threat to
their economy. He asked me to assist Japan with Scrum, viewing it as a pivotal strategy for revitalizing
their innovaFve capacity. This led to a joint venture with two Japanese companies to create Scrum
Inc. Japan and an Agile EducaFon program at Toyota.
Addressing this issue requires Scrum pracFFoners to assume a criFcal role: educaFng Agile
managers. Managers need to comprehend the essence of Agile philosophy and principles,
understand its benefits, and learn how to effecFvely support their teams in this novel way of
working.
In his book "XLR8" (Accelerate), John KoPer adds more weight to this perspecFve. He posits that
enduring success in Agile transformaFon is almost impossible without Agile management steering
the Agile segment of his proposed "dual operaFng system." This dual system integrates the
convenFonal hierarchical structure with a more flexible, quick, and innovaFve Agile network (KoPer,
2014).
To sum up, management's reluctance to support Scrum and Agile transformaFons can be traced back
to tradiFonal management pracFces and business educaFon focusing excessively on financial
analyFcs. However, the remedy lies within educaFon and understanding—helping managers grasp
Agile and Scrum's philosophies and witnessing firsthand the benefits these methods can bring to the
organizaFon. When managers transiFon from directors to enablers, they open up a world of
possibiliFes for innovaFon, efficiency, and overall organizaFonal success.
References:
1. Rigby, D. K., Sutherland, J., & Takeuchi, H. (2016). Embracing Agile. Harvard Business Review,
94(5), 40-50.

2. Hopper, K., & Hopper, W. (2007). The Puritan Gi\: Triumph, Collapse and Revival of an
American Dream. I.B.Tauris.
3. HRMaturity. (2011, November 29). The greatest management story ever told: A book review
of The Puritan Gi\. HRMaturity. hPps://www.hrmaturity.com/the-greatest-management-
story-ever-told-a-book-review-of-the-puritan-gi\/
4. KoPer, J. P. (2014). Accelerate: Building Strategic Agility for a Faster-Moving World. Harvard
Business Review Press.

Why Agile Transforma>ons Fail: A First Principles
Perspec>ve
Introduc)on
Agile has become a buzzword in the modern business lexicon. However, despite its popularity, the
successful implementaFon of Agile is far from universal. According to a Forbes survey, more than half
of Agile transformaFons fail, not living up to the expectaFons of those who foot the bill. Why is this
the case? This arFcle will argue that a significant reason lies in misalignment with First Principles,
including Stephen Wolfram's principle of ComputaFonal Irreducibility, the principles underpinning
the evoluFon of Complex AdapFve Systems (CAS), and the neuroscience underpinnings of Agile and
Scrum. These fundamental principles serve as the bedrock upon which successful Agile
transformaFons are built.
Agile Transforma)ons: Where Things Go Wrong

Before delving into the First Principles perspecFve, it's important to consider what typically goes
wrong in Agile transformaFons. In an illuminaFng Harvard Business Review (HBR) arFcle Ftled
"Embracing Agile", Darrell K. Rigby, Jeff Sutherland, and Hirotaka Takeuchi pointed out several ways
in which execuFves and managers unintenFonally undermine Agile transformaFons. These included:

1. Doing Agile rather than being Agile. Many organizaFons focus on the mechanics of Agile—
pracFces like sprints and stand-ups—without fully embracing the principles of transparency,
inspecFon, and adaptaFon that consFtute the Agile mindset.
2. Ignoring Agile principles when responding to problems. When issues arise, there's a tendency to
revert to tradiFonal, command-and-control style management, which runs counter to Agile's
emphasis on self-organizaFon and self-management.
3. Failing to adapt the performance management system. TradiFonal performance management

systems, centered on individual performance evaluaFons, can undermine the team-centric ethos
that Agile promotes.
4. UnderesMmaMng the importance of good Scrum Masters and Product Owners. These roles are
crucial to Agile teams, and organizaFons that overlook this o\en struggle.
5. NeglecMng to remove impediments. Managers someFmes fail to eliminate obstacles, such as

outdated systems, excessive bureaucracy, or rigid hierarchies that hinder Agile teams.
6. Ignoring culture. Agile transformaFon is as much a cultural shi\ as it is a change in working

methods, requiring transparency, team-based rewards, and a focus on customer value.
7. Failing to properly scale Agile. Many organizaFons grapple with extending Agile beyond individual
teams, struggling to coordinate different parts of the organizaFon and align strategic objecFves with
team-level work.
InteresFngly, the HBR leadership team's interacFon with their own Scrum teams provides a real-
world case study of these piralls. A\er the publicaFon of the "Embracing Agile" arFcle, the HBR
leadership asked their Scrum teams if they were comminng any of the listed errors. To their surprise,
the response was that all seven errors were present!
Waterfall Management and Disjunc)on with First Principles

A significant cause of Agile transformaFon failure is the incongruity between Agile methodologies
and tradiFonal waterfall management. Agile methodologies, resonaFng with Stephen Wolfram's
principle of computaFonal irreducibility, promote the idea that the future state of a complex system
like a so\ware project can only be understood through actual computaFon or execuFon, thereby
advocaFng flexibility, customer collaboraFon, and iteraFve development. On the other hand,
waterfall management remains rigid, highlighFng sequenFal planning, hierarchical control, and siloed
work. This misalignment, when Agile pracFces are superimposed on a waterfall framework, can
negate the benefits of both methodologies, o\en leading to disillusionment and the perceived failure
of Agile transformaFons.
Misalignment with Complex Adap)ve Systems (CAS)

OrganizaFons, by nature, are complex adapFve systems. They are comprised of diverse, self-
organizing, interdependent components interacFng dynamically. Agile methodologies, parFcularly
Scrum, embody the principles of CAS - encouraging autonomy, fostering collaboraFon, promoFng
adaptaFon, and using feedback loops for conFnuous improvement. In contrast, tradiFonal
organizaFonal structures o\en encourage control, discourage collaboraFon, and resist change,

thereby conflicFng with CAS principles. This misalignment impedes the successful implementaFon of
Agile and can result in the failure of Agile transformaFons.
Neglec)ng the Neuroscience of Scrum

Understanding the neuroscience of Scrum—the psychological and neurological aspects that make it
effecFve—is criFcal to a successful Agile transformaFon. Neuroscience reveals that the pracFces in
Scrum, like short iteraFons, regular feedback, and visible progress, cater to the brain's reward system
by releasing dopamine, fostering saFsfacFon, moFvaFon, and producFvity. When organizaFons focus
merely on the outward pracFces without understanding and promoFng these underlying
neurobiological principles, the transformaFon can lack the intended posiFve impact, leading to
perceived failure.
Strategies for Success

To recFfy these misalignments and enhance the success rate of Agile transformaFons, organizaFons
need to:
1. Align Management Approach with Agile and First Principles: Shi\ing from tradiFonal
management structures towards an approach that aligns with Agile methodologies and respects the
principles of computaFonal irreducibility and complex adapFve systems is essenFal for successful
Agile transformaFon.
2. Embrace the Principles of Complex AdapMve Systems: OrganizaFons should promote autonomy,
encourage collaboraFon, adapt to feedback, and foster an environment of conFnuous learning,
mirroring the principles of complex adapFve systems.
3. Leverage the Neuroscience of Scrum: By understanding the neurobiological basis of Agile

pracFces, organizaFons can ensure that these pracFces are implemented in a way that opFmizes
their impact on team moFvaFon and producFvity.
Conclusion
Agile transformaFons, while complex and challenging, present unprecedented opportuniFes for
organizaFons willing to align their operaFons with first principles and Agile methodologies. By
understanding and embracing computaFonal irreducibility, system evoluFon principles, complex
adapFve systems, and the neuroscience of Scrum, organizaFons can significantly boost their chances
of Agile transformaFon success.
References:
1. Wolfram, S. (2020). A Project to Find the Fundamental Theory of Physics. Wolfram Media.
2. Ogunnaike, B. A., & Ray, W. H. (1994). Process Dynamics, Modeling, and Control. Oxford
University Press.
3. Sutherland, J., Schwaber, K. (2020). The Scrum Guide. Scrumguides.org.
4. Sutherland, J., Jakobsen, C., & Johnson, K. (2012). Scrum and CMMI Level 5: The Magic
PoFon for Code Warriors. Scrum Inc.
5. Rigby, D. K., Sutherland, J., & Takeuchi, H. (2016). Embracing Agile. Harvard Business Review,
94(5), 40-50.

6. Schwaber, K. (1995). SCRUM Development Process. In: Business Object Design and
ImplementaFon. Springer.
7. Sutherland, J., Downey, S., & Granvik, B. (2014). Shock Therapy: Bootstrapping
HyperproducFve Scrum. Scrum Inc.
8. Sutherland, J., & Sutherland, J.J. (2014). Scrum: The Art of Doing Twice the Work in Half the

Personal Scrum
The Essence of Being Human

The essence of being human is enigmaFc, intricate, and beauFfully complex. Our minds are like a
grand theatre, and in the spectacle that unfolds within, a mulFtude of characters vie for the
spotlight, each bringing their unique percepFons, thoughts, emoFons, and moFves. I borrow this
imagery from Dr. Lewis Thomas, the noted physician and essayist, who in his riveFng piece "The
Selves," explores the concept of the mind as a commiPee of independent and someFmes compeFng
agents. Dr. Thomas views our 'selves' not as a monolith but as a dynamic and fluid assembly of voices
that have their own part to play in the drama of human consciousness. His noFon beauFfully
dovetails with Marvin Minsky's cogniFve theory of a 'society of mind,' where a vast, diverse array of
agents collecFvely weave the emergent tapestry of conscious thought.
The Commièe in the Mind

There is a growing school of thought within the cogniFve sciences which suggests that this
commiPee-in-the-mind model isn't merely metaphorical, but is, in fact, an accurate descripFon of
how our brains operate. Contemporary neuroscience supports this theory with evidence from
various fields, including neuroimaging studies that reveal the brain's vast networks of interconnected
modules, each assigned its unique role.
This metaphor also provides an intuiFve explanaFon for why we o\en experience inner conflict,
change our minds, or struggle to make decisions. If our consciousness is indeed a product of the
interacFons between various agents or modules, then it's only natural that these agents might
someFmes disagree, leading to internal debates, negoFaFons, and compromises. This model, then,
also offers valuable insights into our mental health, by illustraFng how imbalances or disrupFons in
the interplay of our mental 'agents' can contribute to condiFons like depression, anxiety, and
schizophrenia.

Now, if we accept this model of the mind as a commiPee of agents, an intriguing quesFon arises:
how can we manage this commiPee effecFvely? How can we channel its diverse energies and
perspecFves towards producFve ends, both for ourselves and for others? This is where the principles
of Scrum, a framework originally developed for managing complex projects, can provide a compelling
soluFon.
Scrumming the Self

Scrum provides a structure for organizing tasks, prioriFzing goals, and fostering collaboraFon. It is
built around the principles of transparency, inspecFon, and adaptaFon. In Scrum, a Scrum Master
guides the process, helping the team navigate obstacles and stay focused on their goals. The Scrum
team operates in 'sprints,' focused periods of work followed by reflecFon and planning for the next
sprint.
Applying Scrum to our personal lives — or 'Personal Scrum,' as it's been coined — can be incredibly
powerful. Imagine each 'agent' in your mind as a member of your personal Scrum team. Your
emoFons, your raFonal mind, your creaFve side, your memories — each has a unique perspecFve
and a valuable contribuFon to make. Your job, as the Scrum Master of your mind, is to guide these
agents, help them collaborate effecFvely, and steer them towards your goals. You prioriFze tasks,
manage resources, navigate obstacles, and ensure that each agent is heard and valued.
Personal Scrum
Personal Scrum, like its professional counterpart, revolves around sprints. You set specific, achievable
goals for each sprint, breaking down larger tasks into manageable chunks. You reflect on your
progress at the end of each sprint, learning from your experiences, and then plan your next sprint,
adapFng your strategies based on what you've learned. This iteraFve process allows for conFnuous
growth and improvement.
By integraFng the commiPee-in-the-mind model with Personal Scrum, you're harnessing the power
of your diverse mental 'agents,' channeling their energies towards producFve ends. This approach
can not only enhance your producFvity and well-being but also foster a deeper understanding of
your own mind and its unique dynamics.
Furthermore, understanding our minds as complex adapFve systems, as proposed by Minsky and
reflected in the evoluFonary neurobiology, helps us appreciate the incredible flexibility and resilience
of our mental life. It offers us an empowering perspecFve on our capaciFes for learning, adaptaFon,
and growth, and highlights the criFcal role of diversity and collaboraFon, both within our minds and
in our social interacFons.
In this context, Personal Scrum is more than just a tool for self-management; it is a metaphor for the
very processes that drive our minds, our lives, and our evoluFon as a species. It's a testament to our
extraordinary ability to self-organize, adapt, and create in the face of complexity and change.
Conclusion
Understanding the fundamental principles of mind and applying them in the form of Personal Scrum
can be a transformaFve journey. By observing, managing, and integraFng the unique 'selves' within
us, we can navigate our personal and professional lives with greater clarity, flexibility, and purpose.
As we tune in to the symphony of our thoughts and emoFons, guided by the principles of Scrum, we

create a harmonious orchestra within our minds, each note contribuFng to the grand composiFon of
our existence. We become, in essence, the conductors of our own consciousness.
In the grand scheme of things, every one of us is an embodiment of the universe's unending dance
between order and chaos. By understanding our minds' fundamental nature, embracing our inner
diversity, and using tools like Personal Scrum, we can engage in this dance more fully and
consciously. And in doing so, we not only enrich our own lives but also contribute to the greater
harmony and evoluFon of our world.
References
1. Minsky, M. (1986). The Society of Mind. Simon and Schuster.
This is the primary reference for Marvin Minsky's model of the mind as a collecFon of semi-
independent agents.
2. Sutherland, J., & Sutherland, J.J. (2014). Scrum: The Art of Doing Twice the Work in Half the
This book by one of the creators of Scrum, discusses how the Scrum methodology can be
applied not just in the context of so\ware development but also in personal life.
3. Siegel, D. J. (2012). The Developing Mind: How RelaFonships and the Brain Interact to Shape
Who We Are. Guilford Press.
Daniel Siegel's work in interpersonal neurobiology illustrates the influence of relaFonships
on our neurobiology, emphasizing the interplay of different parts of the brain in shaping our
idenFty.
4. Thomas, L. (1983). The Medusa and the Snail: More Notes of a Biology Watcher. Viking Press.
Lewis Thomas, in his collecFon of essays, explores the fascinaFng intricacies of biology and
how they mirror the complexiFes of human idenFty. The essay "The Selves" is included in
this collecFon.
5. Waldrop, M.M. (1992). Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of Order and Chaos.
Simon & Schuster.
This book provides a comprehensive overview of the field of complexity science and how it
relates to diverse areas, including the human mind.

Stephen Wolfram's work discusses computaFonal irreducibility and its implicaFons for
understanding complex systems, including the brain.

Epilogue: Our Journey Con>nues
As we turn the final page of this iniFal ediFon, rest assured we're just embarking on this voyage of
discovery. We've only scratched the surface of the rich, interconnected layers that underpin Scrum,
from the fundamental forces of physics and chemistry to the intricate complexity of biology and
evoluFon.
Complex adapFve systems, human psychology, and myriad other realms of knowledge conspire to
shape Scrum, and our exploraFon into these facets has merely begun. Unraveling the threads of
these disciplines illuminates the 'why' behind our acFons in Scrum, offering us deeper insight and
understanding.
In response to the thirst for knowledge exhibited by the latest batch of Registered Scrum Trainers,
we've taken heed. Queries about the specifics of Scrum Poker and other facets of our pracFce
deserve comprehensive answers, rooted in first principles.
This book serves not just as a foundaFon, but as a launching pad. It is for you, the inquisiFve reader
and Scrum pracFFoner, and for the broader community eager to delve beneath the surface of what
we do and why we do it.
From here on, anFcipate weekly addiFons to our collecFve body of knowledge. As we delve deeper
into these topics, expect to receive a series of papers, each shining a light on another facet of our
pracFce. The quesFons before us are as boundless as our potenFal to learn.
Our journey has just begun. Together, let's conFnue to explore, quesFon, and grow. See you in the
next update.

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Note to Reader 3

How Scrum Emerged From First Principles 6

The Paradox of InducAve vs DeducAve Reasoning 18

The Next Best Step and ComputaAonal Irreducibility 24

How to Make Agile TransformaAons Successful 33

MarAal Arts, Shock Therapy, and Scrum 42

Scrumming the Scrum: An IntersecAon of ProducAvity, Happiness, and Neuroscience 45

Copyright 1993-2023 Jeﬀ Sutherland 1

Why Agile TransformaAons Fail: A First Principles PerspecAve 58

Epilogue: Our Journey ConAnues 65

Copyright 1993-2023 Jeﬀ Sutherland 2

Copyright 1993-2023 Jeﬀ Sutherland 3

My past as a Professor of Radiology, trained in radiaFon physics, along with my experience as a

Copyright 1993-2023 Jeﬀ Sutherland 4

Copyright 1993-2023 Jeﬀ Sutherland 5

The FBI's Triumph and the Path to Empiricism

Taiichi Ohno's Sage Advice and the Pursuit of Con)nuous Improvement

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Scrum's Origin in Lean and the Dance of Complex Adap)ve Systems

Gödel's Theorem and Computa)onal Irreducibility: Unraveling Certainty

The Cathedral Unveiled

The FBI's Triumph and the Path to Empiricism

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Taiichi Ohno and the Pursuit of Con)nuous Improvement

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Godel's Theorem and the Power of Empiricism in Scrum

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Computa)onal Irreducibility and the Emergence of Scrum

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The Transforma)ve Power of Scrum: Shaping the Future of Product

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Personal Connections to Mentors Who Affected Scrum

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The Paradox Explored

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5. DematerializaFon: The digiFzaFon process eventually results in the disappearance of physical

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The Complexity and Importance of Priori)za)on in Scrum

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Game Theory and Decision Making in Scrum

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Driving System Evolu)on via Punctuated Equilibrium and Complex Adap)ve

The Role of AI: A ChatGPT Analogy and the Emergence of Exper)se

Leveraging AI for Decision Making

Copyright 1993-2023 Jeﬀ Sutherland 26

The Human Element in Scrum Decision Making

Challenges and Poten)al Solu)ons

Real-World Applica)ons and Case Studies

Copyright 1993-2023 Jeﬀ Sutherland 27