Thayer Consultancy

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Background Briefing: Vietnams Anti-China Demonstrations Carlyle A. Thayer September , 2011

[clientnamedeleted] Q1. Given the recent visits of high ranking officers of Vietnam and China, will the relationbetweenthesetwocountriesbebetter? RelationsbetweenChinaandVietnamaresettoimproveasbothsidespreparefora visit by the secretary general of the Vietnam Communist Party Nguyen Phu Trong laterthisyear.ChinasStateCouncilor,DaiBingguo,issettovisitHanoishortlyand no doubt hammer out the agenda and dates for this visit. In June Vietnam sent a specialenvoytoChinatodiscusstheSouthChinaSea.Thetwocountrieshaveheld their seventh round of bilateral discussions on the South China Sea. And deputy defenceministerNguyenChiVinhhasjustconcludedastrategicdialogueinBeijing. Q2. Will the Anti China demonstrations on the streets affect relation between VietnamandChina? In June Vietnams special envoy and his Chinese counterpart met in Beijing and agreedtosteerpublicopinion.ThiswaswidelyinterpretedasapledgebyHanoito end public antiChina demonstrations in return for a toning down of Chinas ultra nationalistpress. Nevertheless antiChina demonstrationscontinued but they were increasingly marked by police intervention. On the weekend of July 31st no demonstrations were held. This past weekend calm prevailed. Vietnamese governmentandsecurityauthoritiesarenegotiatingwithleadingpersonalitiesand intellectualsbehindtheprotestsinordertoendpublicdemonstrations.Chinahas notseizedontheseprotestsasapretextformakingmatterworse.Thisisapositive development. Q3.WhatwillVietnamesegovernmentreactwiththesedemonstrations? Vietnam has already taken a number of steps to prevent further demonstrations. Theserangefromreasoningwiththeprotestleaders,intimidationtodetentionand threats of imprisonment. Security authorities in Ho Chi Minh City quickly clamped down on public protests and only two were recorded. It is clear that no further publicdemonstrationswillbepermitted.Protestershavebeenmovedfromoutside the Chinese Embassy to Hoan Kiem lake. In recent weeks police and plain clothes officershaveoutnumberedprotesters.Moresubtlemethodsofprotestmayemerge however. For example, students in Saigon conducted a sit in in a public park ostensiblyforstudypurposes.