MODULE 2

Probabilities

A. Introduction
There are times that we talk about the certainty or uncertainty of a particular
situations or event to happen. Probability will talk about the chances of winning in the
lottery for example. Students talk about their chance of passing examination. In all
these similar situations, we are involved about the chances that are likely to happen or
not. Further, we make estimates, forecasts or predictions.

B. Objectives:
In this Module, everyone is tasked to work on the
following:
1. Define probability.
2. Illustrate an experiment, outcome, sample space
and event.
3. Perform operation of events.
4. Count the number of ways of arrangements using
the addition and multiplication principles of
counting.
5. Apply the rule of probability in addition and
multiplication of probability
6. Solve problems applying probability in worded
problems

C. Pre-Test Evaluation:
Solve the following problems.
1. The following table shows the number of male and female students enrolled in
two degree programs of certain school.
Degree Program Male Female Total
CTE 600 200 800

CBA 80 320 400

Total 680 520 1200

If a student is chosen at random, what is the probability that the student is

a. A male?
b. A female?
c. A CTE students?
d. A CBA students?
e. A male CTE student?
f. A female CBA student?

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 2. Two letters are randomly chosen, one after the other, from the word “GREEN”.
a. Find the sample space of the experiment
b. List down all outcomes with at least one F.
3. A box contains 5 white balls, 7 yellow balls, and 8 green balls. If two balls are
drawn with the assumption that no replacement is done after the first ball is
drawn, in how many ways can each of the following occur?
a. Both balls are green
b. The two balls are both white or both yellow or both green

D. Learning Contents:

I. Probability
Probability can be defined as the Mathematics of chance. Most people are familiar with
some aspects of probability by observing or playing gambling games such as lotteries, slot
machines, black jack, or roulette.
If the event can either succeed or fail to happen (all equally likely), the probability that will
happen in a given trial is the ratio of the number of ways in which it can happen to the total
number of ways in which it can either happen or fail.
The formula for determining the probability of an event E is

P(E) = number of outcomes contained in the event E

Total number of outcomes in the sample space
Examples:
1. Find the probability of drawing a king from a deck of cards?
Solution: Since there are 4 kings out of 52 cards, then

P(king) = 4/52 = 1/13---answer

Expectation: if p is the probability of success in a single trial of an event, the

expected number of successes in n trials np.

2. Two coins are tossed, find the probability that both coins land heads up.
Solution:
The sample space for tossing two coins is HH, HT, TH, and TT. Since there are 4
events in the sample space, and only one way to get two heads (HH), the answer
is
P(HH) = ¼ --- answer
3. A die is tossed, find the probability of each even:
a. Getting a two
b. Getting an even number
c. Getting a number less than 5
Solution:
The sample space is 1,2,3,4,5,6, so there are six outcomes in the sample space.
a. P (2) = 1/6, since there is only one way to obtain a 2.
b. P(even number) = 3/6 = ½ , since there are three ways to get an odd number 1,3
and 5

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 c. P(number less than 5) = 4/6 = 2/3, since there are four numbers in the sample
space less than 5.
4. Find the expected number of hearts in making 100 draws from a deck of cards?
Solution: The probability of drawing a hearts is 13/52or ¼. Since 100 draws are
the expected number of hearts are P=¼ x 100 = 25
5. How much would a person expect to win if he gets P1.00 if he is successful in
drawing a heart from a deck of cards?
Solution: His expectation is ¼ x P1.00 =P0.25. This means that he was to
draw cards repeatedly under the same conditions; he would expect to win, on
the average, P 0.25

Exercises:

1. A dish contains 8 red jellybeans, 5 yellow jellybeans, 3 black jellybeans and 4

pink jellybeans. If a jellybean is selected at random, find the probability that
it is
a. a red jellybean
b. a black or pink jellybean
c. not yellow
d. an orange jellybean
2. A spinner for the child’s game has the numbers 1 to 9 evenly spaced. If the
child spins, find each probability
a. The number is divisible by 3
b. The number is greater than 7
c. The number is even number

II. Sample Spaces

A tree diagram consists of branches corresponding to the outcomes of two or

more probability experiments that are done in sequence.
In order to construct a tree diagram, use branches corresponding to the
outcomes of the first experiment. These branches will emanate from a single
point. Then from each branch of the first experiment draw branches that represent
the outcomes of the second experiment. You can continue the process for future
experiments of the sequence if necessary.

Example: A coin is tossed and a die is rolled. Draw a tree diagram and find the
sample space.

Solution:
1. Since there are two outcomes (head and tails for the coin), draw two branches
from a single point and label on H for head and the other one T for tail).
2. From these one of these outcomes, draw and label six branches representing
the outcomes1,2,3,4,5, and 6 for the die.
3. Trace through each branch to find the outcomes of experiment.

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 1 = H1

2 = H2

H 3 = H3

4 = H4

Hence there are 12 outcomes. They are H1,H2, H3,H4, H5,H6, T1,T2,T3,T4,T5
and T6
Once the sample space has been found, probabilities for events can be computed.
Examples:

1. A coin is tossed and a die is rolled. Find the probability of getting

a. A head on the coin and a 3 on the die
b. A head on the coin
c. A 4 on the die
Solution:
a. Since there are 12 outcomes in the sample space and only one way to get a
head on the coin and a three on the die,
P(H3) = 1/12
b. Since there are six ways to get a head on the coin, namely: H1,H2, H3,H4,
H5,H6,
P(head on a coin) = 6/12 = 1/2
c. Since there are two ways to get a four on the die, namely: H4 and T4
P( 4 on the die) = 2/12 = 1/6
2. Three coins are tossed. Draw a tree diagram and find the probability of getting
a. Two heads and a tail in any order
b. Three heads
c. No heads
d. At least two tails
e. At most two tails

Solution:

a. There are eight outcomes in the sample, they are HHT, HTH and THH
P( 2 heads and a tail)= 3/8
b. Three heads can occur in only one way,
P(HHH) = 1/8
c. The event of getting no heads can occur in only one way-namely TTT; hence
P(TTT) = 1/8
d. The event of at least two tails means two tails and one head or three tails.
There are four outcomes in this event: TTH,THT,HTT and TTT hence
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 P(at least two tails) = 4/8 = ½
e. The event of getting at most two tails means zero tails, one tail or two tails.
There are seven outcomes in this event – HHH,THH,HTH,HHT,TTH, THT
and HTT : hence,
P (at most two tails) = 7/8
A table can be used for the sample space when two dice are rolled. Since the first
die can land in 6 ways and the second die can land in 6 ways, there are 6 x 6 or 36
outcomes in the sample space.

Example: When two dice are rolled, find the probability of getting
a. a sum of nine
b. doubles
c. a sum less than five

Solution:

1 2 3 4 5 6

1 (1,1) 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6

2 (2,1) 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,5 2,6

3 (3,1) 3,2 3,3 3,4 3,5 3,6

4 (4,1) 4,2 4,3 4,4 4,5 4,6

5 (5,1) 5,2 5,3 5,4 5,5 5,6

6 (6,1) 6,2 6,3 6,4 65, 6,6

Solution:

a. There are four ways of rolling a nine. They are (6,3), ( 5,4), (4.5) and (3,6)
P(9) = 4/36 = 1/9 ---answer

b. There are six ways to get doubles. They are ( 1,1), (2,2), (3,3), (4,4), (5,5) and
(6,6)
P = 6/36 = 1/6 --- answer
c. A sum of less thanfive means four, three or two. There are three ways of getting a
sum of four (3,1), (2,2), and (1,3). There are two ways of getting a sum of three
((2,1) and (1,2). There are one way of getting a sum of two (1,1).
P( sum less than 5) = 6/36 = 1/6 ---answer

Exercises:
1. A box contains a P1 bill, a P5 bill and a P10 bill. Two bills are selected in
succession, Draw a tree diagram and find the sample space. Find the probability
that the total amount of money selected is
a. P6 b. greater than P10 c. less than P15

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 2. When a card is selected at random, find the probability of getting
a. a 9 b. the ace of diamond c. a club d. a black card

III. Addition Rule

Mutually Exclusive Events
Two events then are mutually exclusive if they cannot occur at the same time. In
other words, the events have no common outcomes. Two or more events are mutually
exclusive if not more than one of them can happen in a given trial. Thus, the drawing of
an ace and a king (in a single draw) from a deck of a cards are mutually exclusive events.

Example: Which of these events are mutually exclusive?

a. Selecting a card at random from a deck and getting an ace or a club

b. Rolling a die and getting an odd number or a number less than 4
c. Rolling two dice and getting a sum of 7 and 11
d. Selecting a student at random who is full-time or part-time
e. Selecting a student who is a female or a junior
Solution:

a. No. The ace of clubs is an outcome of both events.

b. No. One and three are common outcomes.
c. Yes
d. Yes
e. No. A female student who is a junior is a common outcome.

The probability of two or more events occurring can be determined by using the
addition rules. The first rule is used when the events are mutually exclusive.

Addition Rule 1. When two events are mutually exclusive,

P ( A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
Example: When a die is rolled, find the probability of getting a 2 or a 3.
Solution:
P(2 or 3) = P(2) + P(3) = 1/6 + 1/6 = 2/6 = 1/3

Example: In a committee meeting, there were 5 freshmen, 6 sophomores, 3 juniors

and 2 seniors. If a student is selected at random to be the chairperson, find the
probability that the chairperson is a sophomore or a junior.
Solution:
There are 6 sophomores and 3 juniors an a total of 16 students.

P(sophomore or junior) = P (sophomore ) + P (junior) = 6 + 3 = 9

16 16 16
Example: A card is selected at random at random from a deck, Find the probability
that the card is an ace or a king.

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 Solution:
P( ace or king) = P(ace) + P(king) = 4 + 4 = 8 =2
52 52 52 13
The word or is the key word, and it means one event occurs or the other event occurs.

Exercises:
1. In a box there are 3 red pens, 5 blue pens and 2 black pens. IF a person selects a
pen at random, find the probability that the pen is a). a blue or a red pen and b). a
red or a black pen
2. On a bookshelf in a classroom there are 6 mathematics books, 5 reading books, 4
science books and 10 history books. If a student selects a book at random, find the
probability that the book is
a. A history book or a mathematics book b. a reading or a science book

Addition Rule II
When two events are not mutually exclusive, you need to add the probabilities of
each of the two events and subtract the probability of the outcomes that are common
to both events. If A and B are two events that are not mutually exclusive, then
P(A + B) = P(A) + P(B) – P (A+B), where A and B means the number of
outcomes that event A and event B have in common.
Examples:
1. A card is selected at random from a deck of 52 cards. Find the probability that it is
a 6 or a diamond.
Solution:
P (A + B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A +B) = 4/52 + 13/ 52 - 1/52 = 4/ 13 ---answer
2. A die is rolled. Find the probability of getting an even number or a number less
than 4.
Solution:
Solution:
P (A + B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A +B) = 3/6 + 3/6 - 1/6 = 5/6 ---answer
3. Two dice are rolled, find the probability of getting doubles or a sum of 8.
Solution:
P (A + B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A +B) = 6/36 + 5/36 - 1/36 = 10/36 =
5/18
Exercises:
1. The probability that a student owns a computer is 0.32, and the probability that a
student owns an automobile is 0.49, find the probability that a student owns a
computer or an automobile.
2. When a card is selected at random from a 52-card deck, find the probability that a
card is a face or a spade.

III. Multiplication Rules

Independent Events
The event of a set are independent if the happening or any one of them does not
affect the happening of the other. Two events A and B are said to be independent
if the fact that events A occurs does not affect the probability that events B
occurs. For example, if a coin is tossed and then a die is rolled, the outcomes of
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 the coin in no way affects or changes the probability of the outcomes of the die.
Another example would be selecting a card from a deck of card, replacing it, and
then selecting a second card from a deck. The outcomes of the first card, as long
as it is replaced, has no effect of the outcomes of the second card.

Dependent Events
The happening of one event affects the probability of occurrence of another, the
second event is dependent on the first. When the occurrence of the first event in
some way changes the probability of the occurrence of the second event, the two
events is said to be dependent. For example, selecting a card from a deck of card
and is not placed, and the second card is selected.

Exercises:
Determine whether the two events are independent or dependent.
1. Tossing a coin and selecting a card from a deck.
2. Driving on ice and having an accident
3. Drawing a ball from an urn, not replacing it, and then drawing a second ball

Multiplication Rule1: For two independent events A and B, P (A and B) = P(A) * P(B)

Examples:
1. A coin is tossed and a die is rolled. Find the probability of getting a tail on the
coin and a 5 on the die.
P (tail and 5) = ½ * 1/6 = 1/12 ---answer

2. An urn contains 2 red balls, 3 green balls, and 5 blue balls. A ball is selected at
random and its color is noted. Then it is replaced and another ball is selected and
its noted. Find the probability of
a.) Selecting a blue ball and then a red ball
b.) Selecting a green ball and then a blue ball
Solution:
a. P(blue and red) = 5/10 * 2/10 = 1/10 ---answer
b. P(green and blue) = 3/10 * 5/10 = 3/20 ---answer
3. A die is tossed 3 times. Find the probability of getting three 6s?
Solution:
P(6and 6 and 6) = 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6

Exercises:
1. A card is drawn from a deck, then replaced, and a second card is drawn. Find the
probability that the two kings are selected.
2. If 12% of adults are left-handed, find the probability that the three adults are
selected at random, all three will be left-handed.

Multiplication Rule II. When two events are dependent, the probability is of both events
occurring is
P (A and B) = P(A) . P(B/A)

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Examples:

1. Two cards are drawn without replacement from a deck of 52 cards. Find the
probability that both are queens.

Solution: (P(Q and Q) = 4/52 . 3/52 = 1/221 ---answer

2. A box contains a 3 orange balls, 3 yellow balls and 2 white balls. Three balls are
selected without replacement. Find the probability of selecting 2 yellow balls and
a white ball.

Solution: P(yellow and yellow and white) = 3/8 . 2/7. 2/6 = 1/28 --answer

Exercises:

1. Find the probability of drawing a king or both first and second draws from a deck
without replacement the first card drawn.

2. A bag contains 5 white, 6 red and 15 green balls. If I ball is drawn without
replacement, find the probability that it will be red or green.

E. Formative Test:

I. Solve the following problems.

1. The cards are shuffled and dealt face down on a table. (Hearts and diamonds are
red, and clubs and spades are black). If a person selects one card at random, find
the probability that the cards is
a. the four heart
b. a red cards
c. a club
2. A class of students consists of 4 freshmen, 8 sophomores, 6 juniors and 7 seniors
as shown in the table below:

Rank Frequency

Freshmen 4

Sophomores 8

Juniors 6

Seniors 7

Total 25

Find the probability of selecting,

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 a. A sophomores
b. A juniors
3. In the sample study of 642 people, it was found that 514 people have high school
diploma. If a person is selected at random, find the probability that the person
does not have a high school diploma?

II. Answer the following problems and show your process.

1. A box contains a red ball (R), a blue ball (B), and yellow ball (Y). Two balls
are selected at random in succession. Draw a tree diagram and find the sample
space. Find the probability that a ball is selected,
a. all red b. all blue c. one yellow d. one blue
2. A die and a coin are tossed. What are the possible outcomes of the
experiment?
3. A couple has four children. If two of their children are girls, list down their
possible children.
4. Two letters are randomly chosen, one after the other, from the word GREEN.
a. Find the sample space of the experiment.
b. List down all outcomes with at least one E.
5. Peter rolls a die 4 times in a row. How many outcomes are there for the 4
rolls?
III. Solve the following problems.

1. At a political rally, there are 8 Democrats and 10 Republicans, six of the

Democrats are females and 5 of the Republicans are females. If the person is
selected at random, find the probability that the person is a female or a Democrat.
2. A box contains 5 white balls, 10 yellow balls, 6 red balls and 12 green balls, find
the probability of getting:
a. White balls or yellow balls b. red balls or yellow balls or green balls
3. There are 50 different colored marbles in a bag: 26 are green, 16 are blue, 6 are
red and 2 are yellow. Peter reaches into the bag and blindly picks a single marble.
The following letters refer to these events.
A- the marbles is red, B- the marbles is blue, C- the marble is green and D- the
marble is yellow
Find the following:
a. P(A) f. P(A or C)
b. P(B) g. P(A or B orC)
c. P(C) h. P (not D)
d. P( A or B) e. P{ not ( A or B)}
4. In a standard deck of 52 cards, what is the probability of getting either a face or a
spade?
5. When a die is rolled, what is the probability of getting either a 4 or an odd
number?
6. A pair of dice is rolled. What is the probability of obtaining a sum of at least a 7
or a multiple of 3?
7. In a class of 15 boys and 20 girls, what is the probability that a committee of 5 is
made up of 3 boys or 2 girls?
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 8. A coin is tossed 4 times. Find the probability of getting 4 heads.
9. A card is drawn from a deck of cards, find the probability that a card is red or
king?
10. A card is selected at random from a deck of 52 cards, find the probability that it
is a 5 or an ace?
11. At a College School 300 students, 62 play football,23 play baseball and 14 play
both sports. If a student is selected at random, find the probability that the
student plays football or baseball?
12. An urn contains 2 red balls, 3 green balls and 5 blue balls. A ball is selected in
random and its color is noted. Then it is replaced and another ball is selected and
its color is noted. Find the probability of each of these;
a. selecting 2 blue balls
b. selecting a blue ball and a red ball
c. selecting a green ball and then a blue ball
13. If 12% of adults are left handed, find the probability that if three adults are
selected in random, all three will be left handed.
14. A card is drawn from a deck, then replaced, and a second card is drawn. Find the
probability that 3 kings are selected.
15. In a study, there are 8 guinea pigs; 5 are black and 3 are white. If two pigs are
selected without replacement, find the probability that both are white ?

F. References:
1. Romeo M. Daligdig, EdD, Mathematics in the Modern World, Lorimar Publishing
Inc. 2019
2. Cengage, Mathematics in the Modern World,Rex Book Store, 2018
3. Pearson Education ,Probability and Statistics 8th Edition, New Jersey: (2007)
4. Sirug, W. ,Basic Probability & Statistics: a step by Approach: Mindshapers (2015)
5. Mendenhall, W. Introduction to Probability and Statistics 14Th ed. Singapore: Sengage
Learning Asia, (2014)

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