TheVietnamCommunist PartyandSino VietnameseRelations Vi t R l ti

ProfessorCarlThayer NorwegianCenterforHumanRights Norwegian Center for Human Rights TheUniversityofOslo,Oslo,Norway September6,2011 S t b 6 2011

One OnePartyState MonoO MonoOrganisational S i li M i ti l Socialism VietnamCommunistParty y

TheState Armed Forces Mass Organisations

PartyPowerStructure

>3.6 million members

Congress 1,377 delegates

Central Committee Committee 175+25 members

Politburo 14 members

Secretary Secretary General

VCPMembership1986 2011 VCP Membership 19862011

4.00 3.50

3.00

2.50

2.00

1.50

VCPMembership VCP Membership (inmillions)

1.00

0.50

0.00

6th 1986

7th 1991

8th 1996

9th 2001

10th 2006

11th 2011

PartyMembershipbyRegion% P t M b hi b R i %
7.00% 6.00%

5.00%

4.00%

3.00%

2.00%

1.00%

0.00% SMD SCV SCH S NTB NRR NCV N

SouthMekongDelta,SouthCentralVietnam,SouthernCentralHighlands,South; South Mekong Delta South Central Vietnam Southern Central Highlands South; NorthTayBac,NorthRedRiver,NorthCentralVietnam,North

VCPCCFullMembers VCP CC Full Members

200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 4th1976 5th1982 6th1986 7th1991 8th1996 9th2001 10th2006 11th2011

VCPCCFullMembers

GenerationalChangeontheVCP CentralCommittee2011

Fullmembers F ll b retained Alternatemembers promoted Newfullmembers

Vietnam sPowerElite Vietnams Power Elite

Secretary General State President Permanent Secretary Party y Secretariat Prime Minister

ChairNational Assembly Standing Standing Committee

InterpretingVietnamesePolitics Interpreting Vietnamese Politics

MartinGainsborough patronagerules! Martin Gainsborough patronage rules! EdMalesky winningcoalitions STRATFOR f i S O factionalinfightingreChina l i fi h i Chi LongLe threegroupingsthatdifferonwhat issocialistorientation AlexVuving modernisers,antiimperialists g , p andrentseekers CarlThayer sectoralrepresentation Carl Thayer sectoral representation

LongLe Long Le
Threegroupsdifferonsocialistorientation Three groups differ on socialist orientation Stateshouldleadsociety statefirst
S SupportedbySOEsandthemilitary t d b SOE d th ilit

Integrationwithglobaleconomy
EncourageFDIandentrepreneurship

Integrationwithglobalcommunity
Investinhumanresources,promotenew industriesthatmeetinternationalstandards

AlexanderVuving Alexander Alexander Vuving

VuvingI Vuving I
Antiimperialists Modernisers

VuvingII g
RegimeConservatives Modernizers Moderni ers RentSeekers

SectoralCompositionoftheCentral i Committee2011
11% 9%

SeniorParty CentralParty State Secondary/Provin cial ArmedForces

38% 42%

CC Members Holding Central Party CCMembersHoldingCentralParty PostsN=38

Politburo CentralCommittee Commissions
13

5 3 2 2

Partymedia MassOrganisation Secretariat InspectionCommittee

13

CCMembersHoldingCentral CC M b H ldi C t l StatePostsN=47

11 17 7 5 7

Cabinet NationalAssembly Othercentralstate Oth t l t t MassOrganisation DeputyMinister Deputy Minister

CCMembersHoldingPostsinthe CC M b H ldi P t i th MilitaryN=21(full&alternate)

MinisterandDeputy Ministers
1 2 6 3

ServiceChiefs Service Chiefs MilitaryRegion Other

2

GeneralPolitical Department GeneralStaff

CCMembersHoldingProvincial CC Members Holding Provincial PostsN=94

1

11

PartySecretary DeputyPartySecretary Other

57

20

Regional DistrictPartySecretary

NewVCPPolitburoN 14 New VCP Politburo N =14

TruongTangSang Truong Tang Sang PhungQuangThanh NguyenTanDung NguyenSinhHung NguyenPhuTrong LeHongAnh Le Hong Anh LeThanhHai ToHuyRua To Huy Rua PhamQuangNghi TranDaiQuang iQ TongThiPhong NgoVanDu DinhTheHuynh Dinh The Huynh NguyenXuanPhuc

North:6,Centre4,andSouth4

GrowingPoweroftheOfficeofthePrime i i Minister

Equilibrium

Sino VietnameseRelations SinoVietnamese Relations

Mature Asymmery
Acknowledge A k l d ment of China pre-eminence Acknowledge ment of Vietnams autonomy

VietNam Viet Nam

Asymmetric Relations

Longterm Agreements

Defence ties

JointSteering Committee

Economic relations

Highlevel partyvisits party visits

Highlevel High level statevisits

Cooperation and Struggle CooperationandStruggle

$11billion deficit withChina with China

Economic andTrade Relations

$9 billion $9billion surplus withthe US

Party to Party PartytoParty

Visitsbypartyleaders Visits by party leaders VisitsbyCentralCommitteecommissions Ideologicalseminars GeneralPoliticalDepartment(army) General Political Department (army) GeneralDirectorateII(military intelligence) Ministry of Public Security MinistryofPublicSecurity

Military to MilitaryRelations MilitarytoMilitary Relations

Highlevelvisits
DefenceMinisters,ChiefofGeneralStaffetc.

Navalportvisits Jointnavalexercises Joint naval exercises ProfessionalMilitaryEducationandTraining Armssales Nationaldefenceindustrycooperation

ConduitsforChineseInfluence Conduits for Chinese Influence

ChineseEmbassy humanintelligence Chinese Embassy human intelligence Borderprovinces MilitaryRegionsalongborder Jointventures Joint ventures Students(civilianandmilitary) Partymedia

SouthChinaSea South China Sea

2007 2011Chineseassertiveness 20072011 Chinese assertiveness SpecialEnvoyFebruary2011 DeputyheadCentralMilitaryCommittee h dC l ili C i JointCommitteeonBoundaryDiscussions SpecialEnvoyJune2011 Bilateralmaritimediscussions Bilateral maritime discussions
7roundssince2010

Visit by Vietnams party leader later in 2011 VisitbyVietnam spartyleaderlaterin2011

TheVietnamCommunist PartyandSino VietnameseRelations Vi t R l ti

ProfessorCarlThayer NorwegianCenterforHumanRights Norwegian Center for Human Rights TheUniversityofOslo,Oslo,Norway September6,2011 S t b 6 2011