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Lecture 1
Pakistan Studies
Fatima Jamil
Lecture Outline
• Indus Valley Civilization
• Decline Of Mohenjo-daro And Harappa Culture
• Aryan Tribe And The Caste System
• Buddhism And Jainism
• Rebirth Of Aryan Culture- Gupta Empire
• Evolution And Growth Of Muslim Society In The Sub-continent (700-1526)
• Islam's First Wave
• The Campaigns Of Muhammad Bin Qasim
• Islam's Second Wave: The Ghaznavids
• The Delhi Sultanate (1206-1526)
• Effects Of Islam On The Subcontinent
Indus Valley Civilization
• Old Stone Age roamed the Indian subcontinent, but the first great civilization to flourish
there developed along the banks of Indus River in the third and second millennia B.C.
• Harappa and Mohenjo-Daro are the remains of two large cities which were the focal points
of an archaic culture extending for 1000 miles along the Indus Valley.
• The uniformity of the architecture and artefacts suggests the existence of a centralized
state comparable to Egyptian civilizations
Decline of Mohenjo-Daro and Harappa Culture
• There are various causes of the decline of this region, such as:
q The usual massive inundations of the Indus and its tributaries which undermined the
agricultural economy.
q The death blow at the hands of the invading Aryan tribes during the second
millennium B.C.
o Tribes were armed with good quality weapons while the Mohenjo-Daro defenders
had inferior quality weapons.
o Food supply of this culture was dependant on vulnerable system of irrigation while
the invaders were mobile with the seminomadic techniques such as cows and other
animals that could move along the tribe.
Aryan Tribe and The Caste System
• The Aryans worshiped a well-defined group of powerful gods- the sky, earth, rain
storm and lightening.
• The Aryan tribal solidarity was based on clan kinship standards- priests, warriors,
artisans and slaves- which is the structure of the classical Indian “caste” system.
• The growth of the priestly power and status in the Aryan society was an important
element in the extension of the Aryan political power- they slowly marched from
the Indus Valley down the western portion of the Ganges and its tributaries.
Aryan Tribe and The Caste System (Contd.)
• The diffusion of the Aryan culture brought the importance and the development of the
caste system in the traditional Indian society.
• They battled their way down from the northwest through the Ganges Valley, and conquered
and enslaved local people mostly who were darker and smaller than them.
• This principle became the basis for a further development into four traditional Vernas
(Caste levels) with the distinction based on occupation:
Aryan Tribe and The Caste System (Contd.)
• Brahman (priest)
• Kshatriya (warrior)
• Vaishya (merchant)
• Shudra (cultivator)
Buddhism and Jainism
• The latter half of the first millennium B.C. is very important for India in the light of history.
• By the sixth century B.C. there emerged many new religious and philosophical schools which taught
new religious practices by Buddha and Mahvaria (founder of Buddhism and Jainism)
- such as assuming new physical form and status in each successive life depending on the actions in
the previous life, the law of karma.
• These new views were shared with important differences with the Aryan religious views- their
messages of salvation were preached openly without regard for caste.
• This period reflects the struggle of control between the leaders of Aryan society and the new
religious elite with the teaching of Buddha and Mahavira.
• The arrival of Buddhism and Jainism led to the emergence of Mauryan state (a centralized
bureaucratic empire).
Buddhism and Jainism (Contd.)
• One of the Mauryan king, Asoka, whose rule began about 270 B.C. was converted to
Buddhism after his conquest of the subcontinent.
• The ideology through which Asoka hoped to unify his empire was comprised of laws
Buddhism, it bypassed the caste criteria and outlined economically efficient virtues
which might also be expected to facilitate political integration.
Rebirth of Aryan culture- Gupta Empire
• The events in the forth century A.D. led to the emergence of a new political power- the
Gupta empire.
• In 320 A.D. Chandragupta 1 ascended the throne to conquer the whole subcontinent
and to restore and bring new fruition the sacred values of the Aryan tribe.
• The arts and science reached new heights and standard of perfection was set which
endured for centuries.
• The Gupta leaders succeeded for a long time bringing political stability and new
cultural unity to the troubled land.
• However, incursions of the new foreign invaders who were already active in Europe
and Middle East led to the demise of the Gupta Empire- the Huns.
• By the end of the fifth century, Hun rule was spreading rapidly and the empire was
steadily torn apart.
Evolution and Growth of Muslim Society in the Sub-Continent
(700-1526)
• In the beginning of the 8th century A.D., Islam entered in the Indo-Pak Subcontinent
• Its real impact began when Muslim rulers from Central Asia invaded the subcontinent in
the 11th century through Sindh.
• The subcontinent was accustomed to invasions but unlike the Persians, Iranians or Greeks,
the Muslims introduced a strong central government and many other social
innovations
-left a legacy of incomparable art, architecture, scientific knowledge and many other contributions to
the world heritage.
• But in the process, it has created a schism with the Hindu majority of the subcontinent
which defines the relations between India and Pakistan to this day.
ISLAMS FIRST WAVE
• Islam was brought forth by Prophet Muhammad (S.A.W.) in the Arabia in 570-632
A.D.
• Soon after his death, the Arab armies set off on campaigns to conquer and spread the
message of Islam.
• When Islam arrived to what is now Pakistan, the Huns and other warfare had left the
area subcontinent unstable and unsafe.
• Between 637 and 643, during the reign of Caliph Hazrat Umar (R.A.) the Arabs
conquered Kamran (Iranian province that included south of Baluchistan) however
this was under loose control and the inhabitants revolted after a few years.
• In 660 under the Caliph of Hazrat Ali (R.A), Haris ibn Marah was sent to conquer
Makran, Baluchistan and Sindh but he was killed in a revolt and lost all Islamic
control.
The Campaigns Of Muhammad bin Qasim
• In 710, when Hajjaj bin Yousuf was the governor of the Islamic empires, an Arab ship was
seized in Sindh and Muhammad bin Qasim was sent to launch a campaign against all
Sindh.
• Qasim set out for Debal at the Indus River delta and dug trenches and awaited orders for
attack.
• Qasim made the holy flag of the city the target, knocked it down and conquered the town.
• The new Caliph Sulaiman ceded power against Yousuf ’s family and Qasim was
recalled and executed before further advances were made.
• Despite the halt in advance of the Arab forces, for the next 200 years Sindh
remained part of the Islamic Empire under at least 37 Arab governors.
• Over time Islamic and Sindh customs intertwined to create a new culture, so
much that Sindh became the first language into which the Quran was
translated.
Islams Second Wave: The Ghaznavids
• Mahmud of Ghazni in the start of 11th century attacked and conquered Multan and its
Hindi allies.
• He also continued his battles against the Hindu Shahi dynasty which gradually lost
ground from 1000 to 1026. In 1001 he conquered Peshawar and it became the centre of
the empire.
• During the Ghaznavid period the Muslim scholars and missionaries travelled throughout
the kingdom spreading the message of Islam- from Lahore to the Salt Range to others
in Punjab.
The Delhi Sultanate (1206-1526)
• The Delhi Sultanate established Islamic rule throughout the subcontinent and
maintained for more than three centuries.
• About 1500 independent Muslim kingdoms had arisen in Multan, Gujarat, Malwa,
Sindh and Khandesh in central India.
• With the death of the last ruler, the Delhi Sultanate came to an end and it gave way to a
kingdom that would be among the grandest the world had seen: Mughal Empire.
• The Mughal era is known as the period of Muslim architecture, literature, religious
reformists.
Effects of Islam on the Subcontinent
• Islam completely changed the living standard, style and thinking of the people
in the subcontinent.
• Economic and social development boosted in the subcontinent and so did inter-
religious harmony as well.
• Turks introduced Persian language which intermingled with Arabic and gave birth
to many languages including Urdu.
• Though the Muslim society experienced ups and downs throughout history, yet
it yielded positive effects on the minds of people at large in Indo-Pak subcontinent.
Indian Revolt of 1857
Sir Syed Ahmed Khan
Lecture 2
Pakistan Studies
Lecture Outline
• Indian Revolt
• Ideology of Sir Syed Ahmed Khan & The Aligarh Movement
• The Muslims Political Struggle
• Legislative Act, 1861
• Sir Syed Ahmed Khan And The Aligarh Movement
• Indian Councils Act, 1892
• Hindi- Urdu Controversy
MUTINY OF 1857
• The Indian Rebellion of 1857 refers to a rebellion in India against the rule of the British
East India Company.
• The rebellion began as a mutiny of sepoys of the East India Company's army on 10 May
1857 in Meerut
• The rebellion posed a considerable threat to East India Company power in that region
• The rebellion led to the dissolution of the East India Company in 1858.
• It also led the British to reorganize the army, the financial system and the
administration in India.
• The country was thereafter directly governed by the crown as the new
British Raj
Cause of rebellion
• The domination of higher castes in the Bengal Army has been blamed in
part for initial mutinies that led to the rebellion.
• Many people were convinced that the Company was masterminding mass
conversions of Hindus and Muslims to Christianity
• There were also grievances over the issue of promotions, based on seniority.
• The final spark was provided by the ammunition for the new Enfield P-53
rifle
British reaction
1. The rebellion was an event of great importance in the front of history of modern India.
2. The Parliament of the United Kingdom withdrew the right of the British East India Company to
rule
3. The United Kingdom started ruling India directly through its representative called the Governor
General. (Comes in the Legislative Councils Act of 1861)
4. It made India a part of the British Empire.
5. It promised "the Princes, Chiefs, and Peoples of India," equal treatment under the British law.
6. In 1877, Queen Victoria took the title of Empress of India and the Viceroy of India ruled India
for her.
7. The Mughal dynasty, which had ruled India for about four hundred years, ended with Bahadur
Shahs death.
British reaction
1. The British also took many steps to employ members of Indian higher castes and
rulers in the government.
2. They started employing Indians in the civil services but at lower levels.
3. They stopped taking that lands of the remaining princes and rulers of India.
4. They stopped interference in religious matters.
5. They increased the number of British soldiers, and allowed only British soldiers to
handle artillery.
6. The Indian troops were tired with the mouth of cannons and was burst out in
pieces
Post 1857 Conditions
• Already had an exposure to British education, culture, liberal ideas and
above all the English language.
• Hindu populated cities or Bombay, Mudras and Calcutta. The first
educational institutions based on British pattern were established in those
cities.
• The first three universities were established by the British India
government in the same cities in 1858.
• Hindus found it easier to switch over from Persian, the official language
or Mughal courts, to English the new official language.
Conditions of Muslims Post 1857 War
• British blamed Muslims for the revolt
• Denied jobs in the government sector
• Muslims disappointed and aloof.
• Education was their weakness, politics was an enigma, and religion was
an obsession
Sir Syed Ahmad Khan
• Revivalist
• It was this movement which under the leadership of Sir Syed that brought about
significant changes in social, economic and political lives of the Muslims in India
that left tremendous impact on the overall society and polity of India.
• The Aligarh movement guided the Muslims to recapture their lost glory in the
British Indian rule.
Purpose of the Movement
• He wanted to persuade the British to change their
policy of hostility towards the Muslims on the one
hand and infuse a sense of profound loyalty
among the Muslims to the British on the other. He
pleaded with his community to remain loyal to
British
Purpose of the Movement
• The intended purposes of his movement were:
1. To minimize all grounds of animosity which the Muslims were likely
to harbor against the British; and
2. To remove all doubts from British mind that Muslims were not loyal.
Sir Syed Ahmed Khan And The Aligarh Movement
• Sir Syed's first and foremost objective was to create friendly atmosphere
for the two communities - He thus started the Aligarh Movement.
• Sir Syeds major strategy was urging the Muslims to acquire education with
emphasis on learning English language and science.
• Separate electorates
The Muslims Political Struggle
• After the First War of Independence in 1857, direct British rule was imposed over India changing the
whole structure of India.
• The Muslims were the worst sufferers because they were the rulers and were not willing to accept the
supremacy of the British.
• The British with the help of the Hindu took actions to crush the Muslims completely-
o their economic condition was denied
o their lands were confiscated
o they lost their jobs
o they lost advantage of their language, literature and culture
The Muslims Political Struggle (Contd.)
• The Muslims were looking for ways and opportunities to the old position in their society.
• Sir Syed Ahmed Khan pulled the Muslims out of this despair.
• With their vigorous support Sir Syed started the Aligarh Movement.
• He launched the Aligarh movement which guided the Muslims to get stability back in their social,
economic, educational and political aspects of life.
Legislative Councils Act 1861
• The first ever constitutional structure was formulated in 1861.
• It was formed to safeguard the interest of the Indian people but with
time it turned into a pure Hindu body working to safeguard the interests
of Hindus and eliminating the Muslims from the society.
• The Act of 1892 could not fully safeguard the interests of the Muslims and the
Muslim leaders now rightly felt for a separate electorate to protect the Muslims
interests.
Indian Councils Act, 1892 (Contd.)
• The Indian National Congress expressed its dissatisfaction :
1. Over the inadequate representation which the legislative councils act
of 1861 gave to the Indian people
2. Demanded that nomination to the Central and Provincial Legislative
Councils should be through general elections instead of by nomination
3. It also demanded the appointment to the government service
through competitive examinations
Indian Councils Act, 1892 (Contd.)
• Syed Ahmed Khan criticized these demands
1. System of education based on Western democracy can not be introduced in India -
Hindu majority over Muslims
• Advocated the procedure of nomination
• The Hindi-Urdu controversy began in 1867 when Hindus demanded the replacement of Urdu by Hindi as
an official language in public offices and courts.
• In 1871 George Cambell, Lt Governor of Bengal ordered that Urdu be completely eliminated from
syllabus books.
• In 1900 Governor Anthony MacDonald also ordered that Hindi should be used in courts, public offices
and educational institutions as an official language
Hindi- Urdu Controversy (Contd.)
• Sir Syed was disappointed to see the Hindus behaving in such a manner and was now convinced that the
Hindus would never be friendly with the Muslims.
• He decide to adopt measure to protect Urdu- he established Central Association in Allahabad for the
protection of Urdu.
Hindi- Urdu Controversy (Contd.)
• The students of Aligarh college also protested against the elimination of Urdu from their syllabus
books.
• However, Nawab Mohsin-ul-Mulk did not stop his efforts for the protection of Urdu- he wrote
several books on Urdu literature.
Hindi- Urdu Controversy (Contd.)
• The elimination of Urdu as an official language had an impacts on the political scene of the subcontinent
as it meant the total destruction of Muslims as a nation.
• This created awareness amongst the Muslims who realized the hatred of the Hindus and British
towards the Muslims and their culture.
• The anti-Urdu stance strengthened the belief in the Two-Nation concept by the Muslims which later on
came to be the main factor for the struggle of a separate homeland.
“Acquisition of knowledge of science and technology is the only
solution for the problems of Muslims.”
• West Bengal with the capital of Calcutta and become the Hindu
Majority.
MUSLIM REACTION TO THE PARTITION
• The new province of Eastern Bengal gave happier prospects of
economic political and social life to the Muslims.
• The partition gave huge chances of progress to the Muslims who were
supressed and dominated class of society before the partition.
• They now hoped that their social status would get a tremendous
boost in the new province.
MUSLIM REACTION TO THE PARTITION
• The partition is given a lot of prospects for the Muslims to improve
their cultural and educational interests to the best level.
• They termed the partition as degrading and an insult to the national character of the
Hindu population.
• The day of 16 October, 1905, when the partition was enforced, was declared as a
national tragedy.
• Hindus were outraged at what they saw as a "divide and rule" policy, even though Curzon
stressed it would produce administrative efficiency.
• They thought that the partition of Bengal will be the favor of Muslims economically and
politically and more loss for us that is why their narrative as opposed to the partition of
Bengal.
HINDU REACTION TO THE PARTITION
• People disobeyed government orders by refusing to pay taxes and
rentals.
• Bombs were thrown and attacks were made on the lives of the British
people, Hindu majority boycotted the British manufacturers.
• The net result of this was that the Hindu agitation definitely disunited
the Muslims from the Congress.
HINDU REACTION TO THE PARTITION
• It also convinced the Muslims leaders for the need for a separate
Muslim political organization which would safeguard the interests of
the Muslims of India.
SIMLA DEPUTATION
• Liberal Party of England had won General Elections in 1905 and announced
it would introduce constitutional reforms in India.
ü The Simla Deputation was a gathering of 35 prominent Indian Muslim leaders led by the Aga Khan
III in Simla in October 1906.
ü The deputation aimed to convince Lord Minto, Viceroy of india, to grant Muslims greater
representation in politics.
SIMLA DEPUTATION
• The deputation apprised the Viceroy of Muslim demands and
expressed the need of protection of Muslim interests
• At this time the Muslims had left the Congress and they had no
political platform to project their demands.
FORMATION OF ALL INDIA MUSLIM LEAGUE
• The annual session All India Muslim Educational Conference was held
in 1906 at Dhaka.
• He said that Congress political activities were highly injurious for the
Muslims.
FORMATION OF ALL INDIA MUSLIM LEAGUE
• The birth of All India Muslim League at Dacca on 30th December 1906
came as an expression of that desire.
• Educating the Muslim and Indian community at large on the actions of the
government, and discouraging violence.
Indian Councils Act of 1909- Also known as
Morley Minto Reforms
• The act was formulated by John Morley, secretary of state for India (1905–10).
• In Britain the Liberal Party had scored an electoral victory in 1906 (under
leadership of Lloyd George) that marked the dawn of a new era of reforms
for British India.
• The Viceroy Lord Minto with Lord Morley prepared a Bill which was
enforced in 1909 and came to be known as Minto-Morley Reforms of 1909.
The Morley-Minto Reforms became law in 1909 as the Indian Councils Act.
1. The long-standing demand of Muslims for a separate electorate was conceded and
included in Minto-Morley Reforms.
2. The preparation of separate electorate was ordered.
3. The authority of council was enhanced- members were given more liberty.
The acceptance of separate electorate for the Muslims enhanced their political importance for which members of the Simla
Deputation deserve all credit.
The importance of the Councils was to ensure that Indian legislators were given a chance to express their opinions.
ANNULMENT OF PARTITION
• The Hindus threatened the government to boycott and it could not
stand extreme pressure and give way to the Hindus agitation.
• The capital of British India was moved to Delhi from Calcutta in 1911.
• In December 1916, the Muslim League and the Congress for the first
time in the history of India held their sessions together in Lucknow.
• Its most important feature was that it led Hindus to realize a separate
political entity of the Muslims.
• On 20th August 1917, Edwin Montague said that in order to satisfy the
local demands, his government was interested in giving more
representation to the natives in India.
• The First World War ended in 1918 with the Allies emerging as
conquerors and were bent upon destroying the Khalifate of Turkey.
• The Indian Muslims were greatly disappointed over the fate of Turkey
and desired a respectable settlement be concluded between British
and Turkey.
• The Viceroy promised that the demand would be met and no harm
will be done to the Khalifat and the sacred places of Islam.
• He promised that religious and political matters will and should be
kept separate.
TREATY OF SEVRES
• The war ended and peace was made through the Treaty of Sevres in
1920.
• According to this treaty that Allies could occupy any part of Turkey at
will.
• Syria, Iraq and Jordon would be separated from the Turkish Empire.
• The Muslims were disappointed over the betrayal of the government.
• The Muslims launched the non-cooperation movement to safeguard
the Khalifate.
The Treaty of Sèvres was a 1920 treaty signed between the Allies of World War I and the Ottoman Empire.
NON- COOPERATION MOVEMENT
• The Hindus under the leadership of Ghandi gave full support for the
Khilafat movement.
• The plan was to boycott all British institutions and goods completely.
• The Congress adopted and re-affirmed this program in December
1920.
The Chauri Chaura incident took place on 4 February 1922 at Chauri Chaura in the Gorakhpur district in British
India, when a large group of protesters participating in the non-cooperation movement, were fired upon by the
police.
The incident led to the death of three civilians and 22 policemen
END OF KHILAFAT MOVEMENT
• The Khilafat movement ended in a complete failure for the Muslims-
they felt betrayed at the eye of victory.
• This shook the Muslims and left the Muslims almost leaderless.
• The Indian politics entered a new era once again back to rivalries
between Hindus and Muslims.
RESULTS OF THE KHILAFAT MOVEMENT
1. The Khilafat movement was a great Muslim struggle and established
foundations to launch further Muslim Freedom movements.
2. Ghandi's betrayal confirmed to the Muslims that Hindus can never
be sincere to the Muslims.
3. The British now seriously felt of giving independence to India.
4. It played an effective role in eliminating un-Islamic trends and
concepts from the religion.
5. It immensely strengthened the Two- Nation Theory.
6. It added much to the economic miseries of the Muslims.
• Your Analysis on the article
SIMON COMMISSION, NEHRU REPORT,
JINNAHS 14 POINTS, RTC’s, Government
of India Act 1935, elections & Congress rule,
Pakistan Resolution, Cripps Mission, Cabinet
Mission & Independence Act 1947
Lecture 4
Pakistan Studies
Lecture Outline
• Simon Commission
• Nehru Report
• Fourteen Points Of Quaid-e-Azam
• First Round Table Conference Nov 1930-Jan 1931
• Ghandi – Irwin Pact
• Second Round Table Conference Sep 1931-dec 1931
• Third Round Table Conference
• Government Of India Act, 1935
• Elections of 1937
• Congress Rule
o Issues After the Congress Rule
o End of Congress Rule
• Pakistan Resolution
• Crips Mission
o Proposal of Crips Mission
o Rejection OF Crip’s Proposal
• Cabinet Mission
• Clauses of the Cabinet Mission Plan
• Act of 3 June 1947
• The Indian Independence Act 1947
Simon Commission
• The British government appointed a Commission under Sir John
Simon to report the constitutional progress for India in Feb 1928.
• Since the Commission had no Indian member, the Congress and the
section of Muslim League under Quaid-i-Azam decided to boycott the
Commission.
• The people received the Commission with the slogan “Simon go back,
Simon go back”
Simon Commission (Contd.)
• In spite of the non-cooperation by the people the Commission did its
work and prepared a report for constitutional reforms in India.
• The Congress and the Muslim League both refused to accept the
recommendations of the Simon Commission.
Nehru Report
• To draft constitutional reforms in India an All Parties Conference was held at Delhi in
February 1928.
The Nehru Report of 15 August 1928 (approved on 28 August) was a memorandum to appeal for a
new dominion status and a federal set-up of government for the constitution of India.
It also proposed for the Joint Electorates with reservation of seats for minorities in the legislatures.
• The conference failed to reach any conclusion about the issues of minority rights.
• In the third session committee under the chairmanship of Nehru determined the basic
features of the future constitution of India and came with a report known as the Nehru
Report.
Nehru Report (Contd.)
o Dominion Status
o Separate electorate should be replaced by joint electorate.
o Full voting rights should be given.
o Linguistic
The language of the Union shall be Hindustani, which may be written either in Devanagari or Urdu
character. The use of the English language shall be permitted
Nehru Report (Contd.)
• An All Parties Conference held in December 1928 in Calcutta, Quaid-
i-Azam issued the following points as amendments to the report:
1. Federation System - The residuary power will be given to the provinces and the future constitution will
be federal.
2. Provincial Autonomy - All provinces shall be granted autonomy of uniform measures.
3. Minority representation - There shall be an adequate and effective representation of minorities in all
legislature and elected bodies of the country.
4. The separate electorate will continue.
5. Sindh will be separated from Bombay and shall be treated will all provisional rights.
6. 1/3rd seats in Legislature - There shall be one-third seats for the Muslims in the Central Legislative.
7. Religious Freedom - Full religious liberty shall be given to all the communities.
Fourteen Points Of Quaid-e-Azam
8. The NWFP and Balochistan shall be given full provisional rights.
9. The boundary changes shall not affect the Muslim minorities in Bengal, Punjab,
and NWFP.
10. Muslims shall have equal job opportunities in the governmental sector.
11. 1/3rd seats in Cabinet - No cabinet shall be formed whether provisional or central without one-third
representation by the Muslims.
12. Muslim rights and culture should be safeguarded - The Muslim rights including their culture,
language, education, and religion must be protected by the constitution
13. The Central Legislative shall not make any changes to the constitution without the
agreement of the State constituting India.
14. No law can be passed regarding any religious community unless on-third people of
that group's legislature vote in agreement.
Fourteen Points Of Quaid-e-Azam
(Contd.)
• The reasonable demands of the 14 points were rejected by the Hindus.
• With this the divide among Muslims, British and Hindus grew deep.
• The demand for a separate nation was made from the platform of the Muslim League.
• His address inspired and motivated Muslims who feared their rights to practice their religion
and culture.
• In 1940, it also became the basis for Pakistan resolution.
Gandhi’s Salt March, 1930
• Simon Commission Report published in 1930: negative response.
• He also reasoned that it would build unity between Hindus and Muslims by fighting a wrong
that touched them equally
• The first session of the RTC began in London on 12th November 1930.
• All parties were represented except the Congress. (why)
• The most important decision taken at the conference was the approval of a
federal system for India.
• They also agreed on giving Sindh a separate identity and for establishing a
responsible government in the province.
• The deliberations of the minorities could not reach a conclusion.
• In comparison, this conference was more successful than the other two.
Ghandi – Irwin Pact
• Lord Irwin, the Viceroy invited Ghandi to discuss the future of the subcontinent.
• Under this the Congress would discontinue the Civil Disobedience and
participate in the second RTC.
• The British government on their part would withdraw all acts relating to offences
not involving violence and would release all persons jailed due to the Civil
Disobedience.
Second Round Table Conference
Sep 1931-dec 1931
• All authority was vested in the Parliament which was under British
influence.
Elections of 1937
• Both the Congress and the Muslim League were critical of the
Government of India Act, 1935.
• Congress refused to include any Muslim politicians in the provincial rule in Muslim
minority provinces.
• As a result, All India Muslim League lost in the elections and Congress was able to
form ministries in eight out of eleven provinces.
Congress Rule
• The purpose of the scheme was to obliterate the cultural traditions of the
Muslims and to inculcate into the minds of Muslim children the superiority of
the Hindu culture.
• Purpose:
o Two nation theory
o The idea of separate homeland
o Muslim quest for political, economic and cultural safeguard.
Cripps Mission
• To check the situation Sir Stafford Cripps a member of the war cabinet
was sent in March 1942 to India
o to get India’s cooperation to fight the war.
Proposal of Crips Mission
1. Dominion status after war like Canada and Australia.
2. Promise of the formation of a Constituent Assembly to finalize the
Constitution.
3. Princely States to be free to join India or remain independent.
4. Provinces could decide to be separate from India and frame their own
Constitution.
5. Till further notice the Defense would be handled by the British
government.
Rejection OF Crip’s Proposal
o Pethic Lawrence
o Sir Stafford Cripps
o A.V. Alexander.
A Cabinet Mission came to India in 1946 in order to discuss the transfer of power from the British government to
the Indian political leadership, with the aim of preserving India's unity and granting its independence.
Clauses of the Cabinet Mission Plan
1. Federal Union
2. Provincial Autonomy
3. Grouping of Provinces
4. Formation of Constituent Assembly
5. Representation of Minorities
6. Formation of an Interim Government
7. Freedom to join the Commonwealth
8. Transfer of Power
Act of 3 June 1947
• He presented his plan- The Mountbatten Plan before the Congress and Muslim League leaders.
o Nehru, Patel, Kripalani, Jinnah, Liaquat, Nishtar and Baldev Singh.
• After the acceptance of the Mountbatten Plan by all the Indian leaders
then British PM introduced the Indian Independence Bill in the
British Parliament and it was passed by both the British Houses on July
5, 1947 and got the royal assent on 18th July, 1947.
Lecture 5
Pakistan Studies
Lecture Outline
• Jinnah’s Speeches
• The Challenges Of Independence (1947–1958)
1. Unprecedented Migration & Settlement of Refugees
2. Unfair Boundary Distribution
3. State Language Movement
4. Indus Water Crisis
5. Division of Military and Financial Assets
6. Accession of Princely States
7. The Kashmir Crisis
o Crisis-UN Action
8. Objectives Resolution, 1949
9. Economic Issues And Other Problems
10. Growing Unrest
11. Military Rule
Quaid’s Concept of State
Democratic Muslim state
Jinnah’s Speeches
• Till 1955, about seven million refugees from India entered West
Pakistan and about 5.6 million Hindus and Sikhs left Pakistan
• Nearly all states opted for either Pakistan or India accept four states,
Junagadh, Hyderabad, Jodhpur and Kashmir.
o Junagadh: Nawab accepted Pakistan on September 15, 1947, however India stormed in
the troops and Reversed Nawab’s Decision.
o Hyderabad: Nawab was reluctant to accede to either India or Pakistan, however hindu
majority was incited to revolt against Nawab’s desire to be independent. The whole
province suffered turmoil and violence. At the end Indian troops invaded this state and
forced Nawab to join India.
“Wherein the State shall exercise its powers and authority through the chosen
representatives of the people; wherein the principles of democracy, freedom,
equality, tolerance and social justice, as enunciated by Islam, shall be fully
observed; wherein the Muslims shall be enabled to order their lives in the individual
and collective spheres in accordance with the teachings and requirements of Islam
as set out in the Holy Qur’an and Sunna; wherein adequate provision shall be made
for the minorities freely to progress and practice their religions and develop their
cultures”.
• Electricity generation capacity in West Pakistan (50 MW only) and number of telephone
(16,500)
• Yahiya Khan was the second Chief Martial Law Administrator of Pakistan.
• Yahiya's regime is accused for being one of the major causes of the division of
Pakistan
General Yahya Khan (1969-1971) (Contd.)
• 1962 Constitution was abrogated
• Basic Democracy was dissolved
• Interim constitution of Pakistan from 1969 to 1973.
• Removed 303 officers, posted army officers instead at different levels of
administration.
• The jurisdiction of judges was curtailed.
• However, unrestricted political activity from January 1970 onwards and
announced elections to be held by the end of 1970.
• Curbs on press were lowered
Elections Of 1970
• Results:
o Mujib’s Awami League emerged as the single largest part winning 160 seats
out of 300 seats
o while Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto’s PPP won 81 seats.
“Break the legs of any party member who dares to attend the March 3 session”
• The situation devolved into a full scale civil war and India invaded East
Pakistan in November 1971 to support the Bangladeshi rebels.
• So under strong public pressure Yahiya resigned and asked Zulfiqar Ali
Bhutto, president of the PPP to form the government.
• Who is to be blamed Bhutto or Yahiya and What were the main reasons of
this divide?
• On 20th December, 1971 Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto became the president of Pakistan.
• Bhutto had campaigned on the simple promise of “roti, kapra aur makan”.
• Other groups swarming the PPP were Sindhi landlords, army officials,
industrialists and civil servants.
• Accordingly his policies were aimed towards these groups: industrialists, civil
servants, landlords and the military.
Bhutto’s Address
• After becoming the president, Bhutto addressed the nation saying
'My dear countrymen, my dear friends, my dear students, labourers, peasants... those who
fought for Pakistan... We are facing the worst crisis in our country's life, a
deadly crisis. We have to pick up the pieces, very small pieces, but we will make a new
Pakistan, a prosperous and progressive Pakistan, a Pakistan free of exploitation, a
Pakistan envisaged by the Quaid-e-Azam'.
• These reforms:
o Reduced the ceiling on landholdings
o Promised the land to tenants by taking it back from landlords
“We(Pakistan) will eat grass, even go hungry, but we will get one of our own (Atom Bomb)....
We have no other choice!”
Constitution Of 1973
• Bhutto stepped down as president and became prime minister.
• Bhutto denied the allegations and refused to hold the elections again.
Downfall Of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto (Contd.)
• This led to political unrest, mass demonstrations and violent anti Bhutto
protests.
• Bhutto was arrested on September 3, 1977 and hanged on the 4th April ,
1979 by Zia’s order.
General Zia-ul-Haq (1977-1988)
&
The Muddling Nineties: Benazir
Bhutto And Nawaz Sharif (1988-1993)
Lecture 7
Pakistan Studies
Lecture Outline
• General Zia-ul-Haq
o The First Phase
o The Second Phase
• Elections of 1988
• Benazir Bhutto’s First Government
o Bhutto’s Foreign Policy
o Bhutto’s Domestic Policy
o Downfall Of Benazir’s First Government
General Zia-ul-Haq
• It was the third time in Pakistan's history that martial law was imposed.
o In corporations like PIA and WAPDA, military men held top positions.
o From 1980 onwards the regime ensured that the army officers would fill 10% of
the vacancies of the Civil Services.
General Zia-ul-Haq (Contd.)
• Pakistan indulged into war and after that massive aid flowed into Pakistan
o about $3.5 billion
o 40 F-16’s
o 100 tankers
• Pakistan's role in the fight against Soviets dramatically changed its image
both domestically and internationally.
• The refugees also brought with them weapons and drugs which created the
Kalashnikov culture and led to a dramatic increase in ethnic and religious
violence.
The Second Phase (Contd.)
• At the domestic level, PPP and other parties launched the Movement for
the Restoration of Democracy (MRD)
• Local elections were held on a non-party basis in Feb and martial law was
lifted in December 1985.
• Which led to the tensions and violence across the Pakistan, the
situation of law and order kept on deteriorating.
The Second Phase (Contd.)
• The spread of Kalashnikov culture led to a sharp increase in robberies and
kidnappings.
• At the same time ethnic tensions increased between the Sindhis and
Afghan refugees which escalated to great heights in the late 1980s.
• The Muhajir Quami Mahaz (MQM) was formed to voice their grievances.
The Second Phase (Contd.)
• Zia’s death was in a suspicious airplane crash along with several other top
generals on August 17, 1988.
• Ghulam Ishaq Khan became the new president of Pakistan and elections were
announced in November 1988.
• Two rivals came to dominate the political landscape during this period:
Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif.
Elections of 1988
• In the elections, PPP won a majority and Benazir became the first female
Prime Minister of Pakistan.
Benazir Bhutto’s First Government
• She announced
o the release of political prisoners
o restoration of press freedoms
o the lifted ban on student unions and trade unions
Bhutto’s Foreign Policy
• She strengthened relations with Muslim countries.
• After taking office, she attempted to strengthen the country’s alliance with
the United States.
• Bhutto tried to ease tensions with India while seeking solutions to the
disputes—primarily Kashmir.
• She appointed her mother, Nusrat Bhutto as senior minister without any
portfolio and her father in-law, the chairman of the Parliamentary Public
Accounts Committee.
• A care taker government was made in 1990 and Ghulam Mustafa Jatoi was
named as the caretaker prime minister.
• Ishaq Khan soon dissolved the provincial assemblies as well and scheduled
new elections for October 1990.
The Muddling Nineties:
Benazir Bhutto And Nawaz
Sharif (1988-1999) Contd.
Lecture 8
Pakistan Studies
Lecture Outline
• Nawaz Sharif ’s First Government
o Foreign Policy And Kalashnikov Culture
o Downfall Of Sharif ’s First Government
• Elections of 1993
• Second Benzair Government (1993-1996)
o Failure In Benazir’s Policies
o Benazir’s Central Asia Policy
o President Dismisses Benazir’s Government
• Nawaz Sharif ’s Second Government (1997-1999)
o Nuclear Tests And The Economy
o The Coup Against Sharif
Nawaz Sharif ’s First Government
• On November 1, 1990, Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif, became prime minister for
the first time.
• He tried to form a Muslim Bloc by uniting all Central Asian Muslim countries
o Thus he extended the membership of Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) to
all Central Asian countries.
• Pakistan also joined the international coalition to drive Iraq out of Kuwait
during the Gulf War.
• In July 1993 both Nawaz Sharif and Ishaq Khan resigned from their
positions.
• Pakistan also became one of the leading sources of drug supply to the
US and Europe.
President Dismisses Benazir’s Government
• Throughout the later half of the 1990s relations between Bhutto and Leghari
deteriorated.
• After Bhutto’s dismissal, Malik Meraj Khalid was named caretaker prime
minister.
Nawaz Sharif ’s Second Government (1997-1999)
• In the February 1997 elections, PML won a two-thirds majority in the National
Assembly and Nawaz Sharif was re-elected as the Prime Minister.
• No longer concerned about dismissal from his position, Nawaz Sharif let his
relationship with President Leghari deteriorate.
Nuclear Tests And The Economy
• On May 28, 1998, Pakistan conducted its own tests of five nuclear
devices.
• Pakistan expressed willingness to sign the treaty if India did the same,
but India declined.
Nuclear Tests And The Economy (Contd.)
• Following Pakistan’s nuclear tests of late May and early June 1998,
o the United States reimposed sanctions included a ban on aid , financing, ban on
loans from US banks and restrictions on exports.
• Japan joined the United States, freezing most of its development aid
to Pakistan and withdrawing support for new loans.
The Coup Against Sharif
• Sharif, worried about the potential for a coup, planned to replace
Musharraf.
• The plane ultimately landed with only minutes of fuel left on-board.
• Illiteracy
• Heavy influx of refuges
• Total central government expenditure on refugees by 1958 was almost Rs.491 million
• Jinnah’s death, 1948
• In order to help the artisans and craftsmen among the refugees, the government
established a Refugee Rehabilitation Finance Corporation.
Which
o Provided credit facilities
o gave 17 million in loans
o invested 3 million in industrial colonies
o distributed sewing machines worth 4 million
o supplied raw materials worth 12 million to refugees at cheap rates.
Broad Objectives
2. Defense Capability
• After independence the major tension with neighboring India was on
Kashmir conflict.
• This led to a firm commitment on the part of the government to give high
priority to strengthening the county’s defense capability.
• This was done by setting aside major portion of the country’s revenue
for building up the defense forces.
Broad Objectives
2. Defense Capability
• Commitment to strengthen the defense capability
oAgriculture's share (including forestry and fishing) was 53% of GDP in FY 1950.
oWest Pakistan, for example, traditionally produced more wheat than it consumed
and had supplied the deficit areas in India.
• Commodities such as coal and sugar were in short supply in Pakistan they
had traditionally come from areas now part of India.
Agriculture Sector - Stagnation
• The biggest policy failure in Pakistan’s early years was agriculture failure.
o Agriculture suffered from negative growth rates in some years.
o Agriculture growth was less than population growth, around 1.7% annually.
• In order to meet the shortage the government approached the USA, Canada,
and Australia, and other countries to provide long-term credits as well as
outright gifts to help in the import of food grains.
Steps Taken For Development
1. Non-devaluation decision of September 1949
• As a result of this India suspended trade by not accepting the value of the
Pakistani currency and a trade deadlock ensued.
• India had to rescind its earlier decision and trade was once again opened
between the two countries.
• With controls imposed on imports, esp. on consumer goods, the prices of the domestically
produced goods increased sharply in the domestic market because of monopoly power which
changed the terms of trade in favor of industry and against agriculture.
• High profits, high savings, high investments, and high rates of growth were the main
features of the industrial development in the earlier years.
oThere were some improvements in exports, but imports which were earlier
being curtailed by government control were not really falling.
oDue to devaluation domestic prices rose, especially for food items, and this
reflected itself in a rising cost-of-living index.
oAnother adverse affect of devaluation was that the government had to pay
more for the food and grain.
• The rate of growth for both private and public investment was high during
1950-5.
• Investments in social sectors, i.e. education and health were minimal and
these sectors had very low priority in the total development expenditure.
Domestic Capital Formation
Institutions/Organizations
• Organizational growth was very rapid and impressive during this period.
Lecture 3
Lecture Outline
• Overview
• Growth
• Agriculture Growth
– Green Revolution
• The 1959 Land Reforms
• Investment
• Inflation
• Tax mobilization
• Water and Power Investments
• Failure: Negligence of Social sector
• Foreign Aid
• The consequences of Growing Dependence
• Trade policy
• Export Bonus Scheme
• Concentration of Economic Power
• Ayub Khan’s Policies – An Assessment
Overview
• Martial law October 1958
1950’s 1960’s
East Pakistan
West Pakistan
• Phase 1 (1960 to 1965)- Main cause of growth was increase in irrigation facilities,
mainly tube wells.
• Phase 2 (1965 to 1970)- Impressive growth rates when irrigation facilities were
supplemented by the technology package of high yield variety (HYV) seeds,
chemical fertilizers and pesticides.
Agriculture Growth-Green Revolution
(Contd.)
The Issues of the Tube wells:
• In 1959 there were 2,000 tractors in the country which increased to 18,909
in 1968.
The 1959 Land Reforms
• Before reforms of 1959 land ownership was highly skewed in favor of few
large landlords who controlled large track of land.
• The reforms were meant to put ceiling on landholdings and were supposed
to be an attempt to change tenancy regulations.
• Approximately 6000 owners owned more than the ceiling of 500 acres
permitted in 1959.
• They constituted of 0.1 percent of the owners but owned 7.5 million acres
or 15.4 percent of total land.
The 1959 Land Reforms (Contd.)
Recovered land:
• Not only was a small amount of land handed over but of that land, more than half
(57 percent) was uncultivated. Of this,
• Another feature of these reforms was that these lands were to be sold to landless
tenants.
• By 1967, only 50% of the resumed land was sold, with only 20% of the resumed
land sold to landless tenants.
• The reminder was auctioned to rich farmers civil and military officials.
Tax mobilization
• The 1960s were the only period in Pakistan’s fiscal history with significant
public savings
oi.e. the excess of government revenues receipt over revenue expenditures
materialized.
• Efforts to broaden the direct taxation system kept the indirect taxation
to minimum and hence prices of goods remained stable
• Real private fixed investment more than doubled, grew faster than
public investment, and accounted for nearly half of the total fixed
investment by 1969-1970.
Inflation
• Total water and power investments in West Pakistan during the 1960s accounted
for more than 50% of total public sector spending
• Tarbela Dam: Reluctant donors were persuaded to include Tarbela dam in Indus
Works.
o Completed in 1971, just in time when there was oil price hike (1973-OPEC) which made
thermal power extremely expensive
Failure: Negligence of Social sector
• Political alignment with the US, therefore, a lot of foreign aid was flowing
into Pakistan.
• This led to the problems of foreign debt which we are still facing
today.
Trade policy
• Like many developing countries, Pakistan did not give importance to its exports
during initial period.
o Between 1960 and 1970, West Pakistan exports increased by around 7% annually,
more or less in line with the growth of output
o However, exports were narrowly focused on cotton textiles and required large export
subsidies
o There was no significant improvement in the structure of exports over the period.
Export Bonus Scheme
• Introduced in January 1959
• The concentration of wealth and economic power was transformed into a major
political issue in 1968 as a result of Mahbub ul Haq’s now famous speech of 22
families.
o His speech was not aimed against the business community but was intended as a symbolic
criticism of the entire system of distribution and social justice developed during the Ayub regime.
• Dramatic turnaround in investment and growth in both East and West Pakistan.
• This development momentum was seriously disrupted by the 1965 war with India.
o Reduction in foreign aid availability and increased defence spending squeezed
investment.
• Growth of GDP remained high both in East and West Pakistan in the second half of 1960s
but still this was concentrated mostly in agriculture in West Pakistan.
• In economic policy terms, major failures were the perpetuation of the industrial and trade
policies of 1950s and an excessive reliance on external assistance.
Phase 3: 1972 to 1977
Lecture 8
Lecture Outline
• Experiment With Nationalization
• Macroeconomic Management
• Pattern Of Growth
• Foreign Trade
• Oil Price Shocks
• External Debt Problem
• Foreign Assistance
• Budget Deficits
• Tax policy
• Inflationary Pressure
• Energy Price Subsidy
• Wheat Subsidy
• Public Investments
• Social Services
– Education
– Health
• Reaching The Poor
• The Bhutto Reforms of 1972
• Bhutto’s Bad Luck Factors
Experiment With Nationalization
• After the separation of East Pakistan, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto was brought into power by
Pakistan's military and was President till 1977.
• The nationalization programme was implemented for the first time in the history of
Pakistan on 1st January 1972, and it was promulgated through three different stages.
• There was a virtual stagnation of GDP at less than 1.7% annual growth in
the transition years 1971-72.
• During the five years of Bhutto's government the annual growth rate of
economy averaged 4.9%.
Pattern Of Growth
o The rate of investment as per GDP recovered from a low of less than 13% to over 19% over
the period of four years.
o Higher military expenditures while adversely effecting long term economic growth did
help short term economic expansions.
o The beginning of the boom in worker remittances also had positive effects on the expansion
of the service sector.
Foreign Trade
• The separation of East Pakistan did not lead to a major decline in Pakistan’s
exports.
1. Exports of primary products from West Pakistan, such as cotton and rice were sold
below the international prices.
2. The real devaluation of the exchange rate in May 1972 facilitated the exports in
international markets.
3. The boom in the international economy and commodity markets in 1972-3 increased the
demand for Pakistan’s exports.
Oil Price Shocks
• External payment position worsened due to rise of international oil
prices at the end of 1973 because of OPEC.
• However the official grants and loans from Middle Eastern oil exporting
countries increased, so the financing of the enlarged deficit did not pose
major problems.
External Debt Problem
• Pakistan had to face rising debt servicing burden because of the existing debt
of 60s.
o As political crises began in 1971 and economy stumbled, Pakistan found itself unable
to meet debt service obligations.
o The seriousness of the problem can be judged from the fact that the debt service
payments due in 1971-2 would have absorbed over 40% of Pakistan’s foreign
exchange earnings of that year.
• Western industrial nations, OPEC countries and multilateral banks resumed the
assistance for Pakistan on substantial scale in 1974-5.
• The average level of foreign assistance commitments and disbursements reached a peak, over
1.2 bill US dollars annually between 1974-78.
• Because of this large foreign assistance, the oil shock on the balance of payments was greatly
neutralized.
Budget Deficits
• The high rising burden of defense expenditure was a root cause of fiscal
imbalance.
Tax policy
• The government was not able to use the tax policy as an effective
instrument of resource mobilization.
• Collection from income and corporate tax during the 70’s did not exceed
1% of GDP.
• The essential inelasticity of tax system remained intact with its heavy
dependence on indirect taxes and especially certain duties.
Inflationary Pressure
• The growing fiscal deficit, combined with inflation resulted from higher
international oil prices, had serious inflationary consequences.
• On the economic front, the rapid rise in price level quickly dissipated any gains
from exchange rate adjustments.
Wheat Subsidy
• Initially the government was slow to adjust wheat procurement prices but later on
these price were increased to around Rs.1 per kilo from Rs.0.5 per kilo in 1969-
70.
• The efforts to keep wheat prices relatively low provided strong incentives for the
production of raw cotton.
• In order to compensate farmers for wheat prices, which were well below
international prices through out the 70s, government continued to provide large
direct subsidies on fertilizers, pesticides and equipment for plant protection.
Public Investments
• There was a massive increase in public investment as the total public sector
development spending increased from 4.7% of GDP in 1971-72 to 11.7% of
GDP in 1976-77.
• Only about one third of the education expenditures were directed at the
primary level.
Social Services - Health
• As a proportion of GDP the growth in health sector was from 0.4% in 1971-2 to
0.8% in 1976-7.
• Number of basic health units increased from 249 in 1971 to 786 in 1977 and the
number of rural health centre increased from 87 to 256 over the period and 1900
health guards were trained.
Reaching The Poor
• Food, clothing and shelter for the poor was a key slogan of the founders of the PPP and
it was this platform which had brought Bhutto to power.
• Large parts of Bhutto’s economic and social program land reforms, labor policy,
educational reform, sharp expansion in public development spending, credit
policies for small farmers and businessmen were aimed at improving the condition of
poor.
• In all 0.6 million acres were resumed far less than 1959 figure and constituting only 0.001 % of total farm
area in country.
• The act was completely ignored by military government after July 1977.
Bhutto’s Bad Luck Factors
May 1972 Devaluation of Pakistani rupee; initial outcome highly positive with exports growing
by more than 100%
Octber1973 Fourfold increase in international petroleum prices; imports cost much more; prices
of fertilizers; essential inputs, and oil jump; excessive inflation domestically
1974- 1977 World recession follows OPEC price rise; demand for Pakistani exports remain severely
depressed and affects industrial output
1974- 1975 Huge failure of cotton crop by as mush as 25% at a time when international cotton
price risen; affected industrial output
1976-1977 Worst floods in Pakistan’s history; agriculture crops destroyed; further import of food
crops; excessive expenditure on public good measures all affecting industrial output.
Phase 4: 1977 to 1988
Lecture Outline
1. Economic Performance and Policies
4. Privatization
• During 1977-83, the rapid rise in worker remittances had pushed GNP growth rate to an
annual record of 7.6%
• As worker remittances tended to decline steadily after 1982-3 and interest payments on
external debt gathered momentum, the GNP growth rate fell sharply to 4.9% per annum
during 1983-8.
• In the first half of the 1980’s, worker remittances proved important in building foreign
reserves and helped the government in meeting its foreign debts.
Economic Performance- Worker Remittances (Contd.)
• Unfortunately, the workers remittances boom did not translate into a significantly higher rate of
national savings and investments.
o The pattern of expenditure of families benefiting from remittances did not increase the national
savings rate or enhance the long-term growth of the economy.
o About 63 % of remittances were spent on consumption goods (primarily imported luxury goods
such as video-recorders, cars, TVs) and only 12% percent went to savings.
o As a consequence, the domestic savings rate fell from 7.8% of GDP in 1977–1978 to 5.4% by
1982–1983
Economic Performance- Worker Remittances
(Contd.)
Years USD (Millions) % of GDP
1972-1973 136 2.1
1976-1977 578 3.8
1982-1983 2,886 10.1
1987-1988 2,013 5.2
1990-1991 1,848 4.1
1993-1994 1,455 2.3
Agricultural Growth and Policies
• The agricultural growth increased to 4% in 1977-88 from 2% in 1972-77.
o Wheat production rose from an annual average of 8.5 mill tons in 1975-7 to nearly 13 mill tons in
1986-8.
o Cotton production increased from 0.5 mill tons average in 1974-6 to 13 mill tons in 1985-7.
o Domestic fertilizer production of nitrogenous fertilizer nearly tripled during the first half of 80’s.
o The livestock grew annually by 5.5% in the 80’s and further continued.
Privatization
• The process of gradual deregulation of markets and production continued over the years but
so massive was the scale of nationalization and its consequences that despite successive attempts
to privatization, large segments of banking, insurance and industry remained in the state
control during the Zia regime and couldn’t be deregulated.
• In mid 1977 was the need to restore business confidence and motivation, in order to revive
investment in industry and agriculture.
Export and Industrial Growth
• Industrial growth under Zia was impressive as Manufacturing sector growth over 1977-88 averaged over 9% as
compared to 3.7% in 1972-77.
o The investment climate for the private sector was improved by providing guarantees against future
nationalization,
Export and Industrial Growth (Contd.)
• Private sector investment in manufacturing grew by 9.5% per annum during 1978-83.
• The revival of private industrial sector was particularly important for addition to capacity in traditional
industries such as cotton textiles which have quick pay off.
• The manufactured exports boom of the 1980’s was narrowly linked to the expansion of raw cotton
production which in turn made possible a major expansion of cotton textiles.
• Over 60% of the increase in real value of exports over the decade was attributable to cotton, cotton
textiles and garment exports.
Exchange Rate and Trade Policy (Contd.)
• Pakistan in 1982 began to regularly adjust the value of the rupee.
• The rupee was devalued from Rs. 9.90 per US dollar to Rs. 11.84 in 1982 and then gradually depreciated to Rs. 18 per
US dollar by the end 1988.
• Between 1982 and 1988, there was a substantial real depreciation of the rupee; the nominal exchange rate was
devalued almost twice as fast as warranted by the relative change in prices between Pakistan and major trading partners.
• This real devaluation assisted the overall export expansion of 7-8% per annum during the period and contributed in a
significant way in reducing the relative dependence on worker remittance.
• But the results were however disappointing as exports from the zone were
relatively small.
Industrial Policy Framework
• While there were significant improvement during the Zia period in the
industrial policy framework in terms of emphasis on the role of
the private sector,
o not much was done for fundamental change in industrial policies which
had hampered the structural change in manufacturing during the 1960’s and
1970’s.
Industrial Policy Framework (Contd.)
• By the early 1980s, East Asian countries like China, Thailand, Malaysia, the
Philippines and Indonesia were successfully following the lead of Korea, Taiwan,
Hong Kong and Singapore to develop manufactured goods export aggressively.
• Weaknesses in the trade policy were a key factor in the lag in manufactured exports.
Slow Growth in Investment
• High economic growth during the Zia period was not accompanied by a rapid rise in
investment.
• The main element in the rising of fiscal debt burden has been the interest payments on domestic debt reflecting
both the enormous growth in internal debt and the high interest rates at which the borrowing was done.
• Domestic debt increased from 2.8% of GDP in mid 1981 to 4.2% of GDP in mid 1988.
• There was a much higher reliance on government borrowing from non bank sources at relatively high interest rates
of 14-15% per year.
• A greater reliance on non inflationary sources of financing meant that credit creation in the public sector and the
overall rate of monetary expansion slowed down sharply in Zia period.
Social Progress
• Substantial economic growth and relatively low inflation during the Zia period did translate into broad based income growth for
most income group.
• Average per capita GNP grew at an annual average of 3.3% per annum or by 4.3% during 1977-88 though the growth was much
higher in the earlier period.
• Real wages which had increased during the Bhutto period, showed further increase during Zia’s rule.
• The annual earnings of two main wage groups of factory workers indicate an increase in nominal wage of around 150% over
1977-88.
• The wages of unskilled laborers tended to rise faster than those of skilled.
• High growth rate of the economy, good agricultural growth, and labor immigration influenced real wage rate and incidence
of poverty.
• Like Ayyub's period, in Zia’s regime employment creating growth did not receive special policy support and agricultural
program did not favour farmers.
Social Progress (Contd.)
• Primary school enrollment during 1977-88 expanded at an annual rate of only 4% only moderately faster
than the growth rate of the population.
• Nearly 75% of the real increase in public sector development program between the Fifth and the Sixth plan
period was pre emptied by increase allocations for energy.
• Total public spending on education did increase to 2.7% of GNP by 1987-8 from 2% of GNP in 1976-7.
• Progress in increasing access of the population to basic health services was slow.
• Only modest gains were made in reducing infant mortality and increasing life expectancy.
• The increased demand for services in rural areas following rising incomes generated pressures for rapid rural
electrification and rural roads.
Islamization of the Economy
• As a part of general emphasis on Islamic values and codes of conduct, Zia announced a plan for the implementation
of an Islamic economic system in February 1980.
• The institutionalization of zakat and introduction of interest free banking were the two most important
measures of Islamizing economy.
• The aim was to free the economic order from exploitation and provide equal socio economic opportunities for the
needy.
• Under the Zakat Ordinance, most financial assets in the banking system and saving instruments were made subject
to 2.5% deduction annually on account of zakat.
• By 1987-8, zakat collections deducted at source were Rs.1.9 billion and had risen further to Rs.2.6 billion by
1988-9.
Islamization of the Economy (Contd.)
• Even assuming that all the benefits were to the lowest 20% income households and that the administration
expenses were minimal, the zakat donation would have augmented the income of this group by only 2%.
• Islamization also affected the interest rate policy. Technically all lending and deposit rates were by 1988 set
on profit and loss sharing.
• The move to profit and loss sharing as such did not make big difference to the process of financial
deepening that is increase in share of monetary assets to GDP.
• The ratio of the total monetary assets to GNP, which is suffered a sharp decline in Bhutto’s period due to
higher inflation and uncertainty about the future of private enterprise, had recovered to 36.5% in 1980.
• Under the circumstances zakat deduction of 2.5% per annum, from which foreign currency deposits are
exempt, provides a strong disincentive to hold rupee assets.
Phase 5: 1988 to 1999
(Economic Management Under Benazir
Bhutto And Nawaz Sharif)
Pakistan’s Studies
Lecture Outline
1. The Muddling Nineties
7. Fiscal Deficits
8. Debt Growth
• The fiscal deficits had touched a new peak of 8.5% of GDP in 1987-8
• The current account balance of payments deficits had grown further.
• The investment rate had stagnated
• Spending on human resource had been greatly neglected.
• Shortages of infrastructure had become serious issue
• Structural weaknesses in manufacturing and exports sector were constraining future growth.
• Political intervention in state owned commercial banks also resulted in large increases in bad
debts of the banking system, increasing the large contingent liability of the public sector.
Macro Economic Management
1988-96 periods was marked by a slowing down of the rate of economic growth, sharp
acceleration in inflation and worsening of distribution of benefits of growth.
• GDP growth rate during this period averaged 4.9% per annum compared to 6.6% per
annum during 1977-88.
• The rate of inflation accelerated during 1988-96 and exceeded 12% per annum during
1993-6.
• Workers remittances continued to decline, interest rate on foreign debt rose modestly
but steadily.
Reasons for Slowdown of the Economy
1. The continued low rates of savings and investments.
5. Macroeconomic policies à failed to halt the growing imbalances in the budget à growing financial
vulnerability.
7. No serious efforts were made to mobilize domestic resources in the public sector for development.
The Age of Structural Adjustment-1990’s
• Seventh five year plan (1988-93) was commissioned at the same time as
IMF/World bank implemented Structural Adjustment Program
1. An increase in the level of indirect taxation (in the form of generalized sales tax) by July 1990.
3. An increase in producer prices of major crops (wheat, cotton, sugarcane, rice and oil seeds ) and in
the prices of petroleum products.
4. A 12.5% reduction in public sector development program during the agreement period (1989-1991)
• The first large energy development project in the private sector, the hub
power project was completed in 1997.
• With the help of the World Bank, plans for the first large oil field power
station with a capacity of 1293 MW at hub in Baluchistan were finalized.
Shift Towards Private Sector (Contd.)
• The sale of the part of the shares of PTCL to the foreign investors was
only a first step towards the privatization of this important entity.
o E.g., monopoly in cement where Mian Mansha got all five plants of DG cement under
privatization scheme in 1992.
• Only 22% of privatized units performed better, however 34% were really
performing worse:
• The fiscal deficits averaged 6% of GDP during the fiscal years 1990-3 and
1994-6 respectively.
• Public sectors external debtà nearly doubledà rise in ratio of debt to GDP.
• The debt-servicing problem was compounded àby a faster growth in interest payments than in debt
stock
• Loan defaults
• Nawaz Sharif
oMotorway
– 1991: signed contract with Daewoo to build a four lane motorway by 1995
oYellow Cabs
– Easy loans to import duty free vehicles
– Banks were unable to trace 50-60% of the vehicles on defaulted loans
Pet projects
• Benazir Bhutto
oPower Sector
– 1994: 19 agreements for independent power projects (IPPs)
– Subsequent problems with high tariffs
• The current budget for social services went up from 1.7% of GDP in 1991 to 2.2% in 1994.
• The rise in female enrollment ratio from 31% to 57% over the same period was particularly notable because it
signified a substantial narrowing of gender gap in basic education.
• In 1992, with the assistance of the World Bank, a comprehensive Social Action Programme (SAP) was designed:
Ø It aimed at improving and expanding primary education , basic health care, family planning, and rural water supply and sanitation
(RWSS)