Mathematics AA Interntal Assessment

Using buffons needle Problem to calculate the probability of a handwritten

word intersecting a line on a notebook

Page count: 20
Introduction

Probability is a mathematical topic suggesting how likely an event is going to happen. People use

probability in their daily lives, when thinking about the chances of an event happening. By

knowing the probability of an event, someone can base a decision on the chances of the event

happening. Probability is often used in statistical analisys, outlining the likelihood of an event

occurring.

As I take notes in class, I often pay attention to the board rather than my book, sometimes when I

take notes, I find myself writing on the lines much more than writing between them. I wanted to

investigate the probability that I would right on a line versus the probability I would write on a

space.

When doing research, I came across buffon’s needle problem, this experiment showed the exact

probiblityy in which the tip of the pen would land on a line or a space on my notebook. Through

this experiment I could also figure out the probability of a word i write intersecting a line, based

on the words length with my handwriting. So I wanted to see for myself and understand how

accurate the relationship is.

I started off by understanding the mathematical derivation of the relationship in Buffon’s needle

problem, then using my derivation I calculated the exact probability of me writing on a line or in

between lines on my notebook, and finally I conducted my own version of the experiment to see

if this probability stood correct in the real world.

Buffons needle problem

Buffon’s needle experiment started in 1777, and it is viewed as one of the oldest problems within

the field of geometrical probablity, and it was even used to approximate the value of pi. The

experiment consists, of dropping a needle on a sheet of lined paper, and the probability in which

the neele intersected a line always had a relation to 2/pi, with the probability changing in respect

to the relationship between the length of the needle and the distance between the lines.

The probability in which a needle landing in between the lines is dpenedant on 2 primary factors.

The first being the distance between the lines D, and the second being the length of the needle

itself L. The relation between these factors is what determines the probability of the experiment.

𝐿
With the relationship being 𝐷
. In our case, the length of the needle has to be less or equal to the

distance between the lines, Expressed as 𝐿 ≤ 𝐷. This allows the probability of the needle

landing on 2 lines at once be 0. For this expreminet, I chose to have 3 needles one the length of

the needle to be equal to the distance between the lines D, another being double the length of D,

and the third being half the length of D.

According to the theorem bhind buffons needle problem, if a needle of length L is dropped onto a

sheet of paper with equally distributed lines with distance 𝐷 ≥ 𝐿, the probability in which the

needle lands on a line is exactly

2 𝐿
𝑃= π 𝐷
This means that the experiment can approximate the value

of π. If you drop a needle 𝑁 number of times, and get a

𝑃 2 𝐿
positive answer, in 𝑃 cases. Then 𝑁
should equal to π 𝐷

2𝐿𝑁
, meaning that π should approximate to 𝐷𝑃
.

Buffons needle problem can be solved by evaluating an integral. Using this method, we can also

solve the problem for a longer needle.

If you drop a needle short or long, then the total probability of the needle landing on an expected

number of crossings will be

𝐸 = 𝑝1 + 2𝑝2 + 3𝑝3 + …

𝑝1 represents the probability of a needle ladning on one line, 𝑝2 being the probability that the

needle lands on 2 lines and so on. Therefore the probability that the needle lands on at least one

line is

𝑃 = 𝑝1 + 𝑝2 + 𝑝3 + …

If the needle is shorter than the distance between the points 𝐿 ≤ 𝐷, then the probailpty in which

it lands on more than one line 𝑝2 , 𝑝3 , … will be zero, which gives us the conclusion that 𝐸 = 𝑃

for a shorter neelde (1), We can imagine the needle of length 𝐿 to be split up into 2 components 𝑥

and 𝑦, with 𝑥 being the front part of the needle the length between the intersection and the end of

the needle, and 𝑦 being the back part of the needle.

By doing this we can determine that 𝐿 = 𝑥 + 𝑦, and thus

we can rewrite 𝐸(𝐿) as 𝐸(𝑥 + 𝑦) = 𝐸(𝑥) + 𝐸(𝑦),

since the crossings produced are always just those

produced by the front part, plus those of the back part.

When inducting 𝑛 into the functional equation, 𝑛 𝐸(𝑥) can

be written as 𝐸(𝑛𝑥) where 𝑛 ∈ 𝑁 being for all natural

numbers, it can also be implied that

𝑛 𝑛
𝑚 𝐸( 𝑚 𝑥) = 𝐸(𝑚 𝑚
𝑥) = 𝐸(𝑛𝑥) = 𝑛 𝐸(𝑥).

Thus proving that 𝑛 ∈ 𝑄 for all rational numbers. Additionally, 𝐸(𝑥) is monotone, meaning that

𝑥 ≥ 0, and the function of E(x) is linear, therefore we can deduce that 𝐸(𝑥) = 𝑐𝑥 for 𝑥 ≥ 0

with 𝑐 being a constant when 𝑐 = 𝐸(1).

But we need to figure out what the constant is

In order to find that out we need to use needles of different

shapes, lets drop a polygonal shape, which is consistent of a

collection of straight needles with total length 𝐿, we can

determine the number of crossings it produces by the sum of

number of crossings of each segment of the polygonal shape.

Hence, as the expected function is linear, the expected number

of crossings is again. (2)

 𝐸 = 𝑐𝐿.

Lets consider a circle with circumference 𝐶 and diameter 𝑑 the length of the shape 𝑥 will become

𝑑π = 𝐶. If a needle of that dimension is dropped onto a lined paper with the distance between

the lines 𝐷 being equal to the diameter 𝑑, then the number of times the shape lands on a line will

always be 2 (3)

The circle can be approximated by a polygon with infinite sides, lets conder the circle with

𝑛
circumference 𝐶 to be inscribed in a polugonal shape 𝑃 , as well as being circumsribed in

polygonal shape 𝑃𝑛, thus the expected number of crossing between the shapes and the lines will

be as follows,

𝑛
𝐸(𝑃 ) ≤ 𝐸(𝐶) ≤ 𝐸(𝑃𝑛)
We know that the expected number of crossings for circle 𝐶 is always 2, thus we can infer from

(3) that.

𝐸(𝐶) = 2

𝑛
Also by knowing that 𝑃 and 𝑃𝑛 are both polygons, the expected number of crossings can be

modeled by the previous formula used, which is

𝑛 𝑛
𝐸(𝑃 ) = 𝑐𝐿(𝑃 )

and

𝐸(𝑃𝑛) = 𝑐𝐿(𝑃𝑛)

Thus we get (4)

𝑛
𝑐𝐿(𝑃 ) ≤ 2 ≤ 𝑐𝐿(𝑃𝑛)

𝑛
Both 𝑃 and 𝑃𝑛 approximate for the value 𝐶 for 𝑛 → ∞. Specifically,

𝑛
lim 𝐿(𝑃 ) = 𝑑π = lim 𝐿(𝑃𝑛)
𝑛→∞ 𝑛→∞

and thus for 𝑛 → ∞ we infer from (4) that

𝑐𝑑π ≤ 2 ≤ 𝑐𝑑π
This solves the value of 𝑐 (the constant) as

2 1
𝑐= π 𝐷

Referring back to (1) and (2) we know that 𝑐𝐿 = 𝐸, and that 𝐸 = 𝑃 for 𝐿 ≤ 𝐷 therefore, we

can deduce that for 𝐿 ≤ 𝐷

2 𝐿
𝑐𝐿 = π 𝐷

2 𝐿
𝐸= π 𝐷

2 𝐿
∴𝑃 = π 𝐷

This derivation can also be consducted by calculus.

Lets say you drop a short needle onto a lined sheet of

paper where the length of the needle 𝐿 is less than or

equal to the distance between the lines 𝐷, we can

consider the angle between the line drawn on the paper

and the direction the needle is pointing to be α, where

π
0 ≤ 𝑎 ≤ 2
, (We can ignore the case where the needle comes to lie with negative slope, as it is

symmetric to the case of positive slope, thus producing the same probability.)
By using trigonometric theories, we can determine the height of the needle from the horizontal

plane which is 𝐿 𝑠𝑖𝑛(α). with the probability of that needle crossing a horizontal line with

𝐿 𝑠𝑖𝑛(α)
distance 𝐷 is 𝐷
.

π
Since 0 ≤ 𝑎 ≤ 2
, we can integrate the probablity from the range of angle α, to find the

2 𝐿
definitive probability 𝑃. Which turns out to be π 𝐷
, for when 𝐿 ≤ 𝐷.

π
2
2 𝐿 𝑠𝑖𝑛(α)
𝑃=∫ π 𝐷
𝑑α
0
π
2
2 𝐿 𝑠𝑖𝑛(α)
𝑃= π
∫ 𝐷
𝑑α
0
π
2
2 𝐿
𝑃= π 𝐷
∫ 𝑠𝑖𝑛(α) 𝑑α
0

π
2 𝐿
𝑃= π 𝐷
(− 𝑐𝑜𝑠(α)]02

2 𝐿 π 2 𝐿
𝑃 = (π 𝐷
)(− 𝑐𝑜𝑠( 2 )) − ( π 𝐷
)(− 𝑐𝑜𝑠(0))

2 𝐿 2 𝐿
𝑃 = (π 𝐷
)(0) − ( π 𝐷
)(− 1)

2 𝐿
𝑃 = (0) − (− π 𝐷
)

2 𝐿
𝑃= π 𝐷

In the case of a longer needle, where 𝐿 ≥ 𝐷, the probability in which the needle crosses a line is

𝐿 𝑠𝑖𝑛(α) −1 𝐷 −1 𝐷 π
also 𝐷
, as long as 0 ≤ 𝑎 ≤ 𝑠𝑖𝑛 ( 𝐿 ). However for 𝑠𝑖𝑛 ( 𝐿 ) ≤ 𝑎 ≤ 2
, the needle

will definitely cross a line making the probablity 𝑃 = 1. Hence we can integrate both

probabilities with their respected values of α, for 𝐿 ≥ 𝐷 to find P.

 −1 𝐷 π
𝑠𝑖𝑛 ( 𝐿 ) 2
2 𝐿 𝑠𝑖𝑛(α)
𝑃= π
( ∫ 𝐷
𝑑α + ∫ 1 𝑑α)
0 −1 𝐷
𝑠𝑖𝑛 ( 𝐿 )
−1 𝐷 π
𝑠𝑖𝑛 ( 𝐿 ) 2
2 𝐿
𝑃= π
(𝐷 ∫ 𝑠𝑖𝑛(α) 𝑑α + ∫ 1 𝑑α)
0 −1 𝐷
𝑠𝑖𝑛 ( 𝐿 )
−1 𝐷 π
2 𝐿 𝑠𝑖𝑛 ( 𝐿 ) 2
𝑃= π
( 𝐷
(− 𝑐𝑜𝑠(α)]0 + (α] −1 𝐷
)
𝑠𝑖𝑛 ( 𝐿 )

2 2
2 𝐿 𝐿 −𝐷 π −1 𝐷
𝑃= π
( 𝐷 (1 − |𝐿|
) + 2
− 𝑠𝑖𝑛 ( 𝐿 ))

2 2
2 𝐿 𝐿 − 𝐷 𝑠𝑖𝑔𝑛(𝐿) π −1 𝐷
𝑃= π
(𝐷 + 𝐷
+ 2
− 𝑠𝑖𝑛 ( 𝐿 )

2 2 −1 𝐷
2𝐿 − 2 𝐿 − 𝐷 𝑠𝑖𝑔𝑛(𝐿) + 𝐷π − 2𝐷𝑠𝑖𝑛 ( 𝐿 )
𝑃= 𝐷π

2 2
𝐿 −𝐷 −1 𝐷
− 2𝐿 |𝐿|
− 2𝐷𝑠𝑖𝑛 ( 𝐿 ) + 2𝐿 + 𝐷π
𝑃= 𝐷π

2
𝐷 −1 𝐷
− 2𝐿 1− 2 − 2𝐷𝑠𝑖𝑛 ( 𝐿 ) + 2𝐿 + 𝐷π
𝐿
𝑃= 𝐷π

2
𝐷 −1 𝐷
2𝐿 1− 2𝐷𝑠𝑖𝑛 ( 𝐿 )
2𝐿 2
𝐿
𝑃= 𝐷π
− 𝐷π
− 𝐷π
+1

2
𝐷 −1 𝐷
2𝐿 (1− 1− 2 ) 2𝑠𝑖𝑛 ( 𝐿 )
𝐿
𝑃= 𝐷π
− π
+1

2
𝐷
𝐿 (1− 1− ) −1 𝐷
2 2
𝐿
𝑃= π
( 𝐷
− 𝑠𝑖𝑛 ( 𝐿 )) + 1

2
2 𝐿 𝐷 −1 𝐷
𝑃= π
( 𝐷 (1 − 1− 2 ) − 𝑠𝑖𝑛 ( 𝐿 )) + 1
𝐿

* I chose to show my work in 2 decimal places as I wanted to convert the probability I

calculate/find into a percentage.*

Finding the probability of me writing on a line in my notebook using buffons needle

problem

Referring back to my aim, I wanted to find the probability in which I write on a line or between

lines on my notebook, so in order to figure that out I had to first know the size of the average

word i write, which i can then apply to buffons needle problem, thus allowing me to calculate the

probability. First of all I did some research and found out that the average number of letters in a

word is around 4.70 letters (Wylie). But in my case I decided to round this value up to 5.00

letters since it wouldnt make sense to write a word without a whole number of letters.

One issue I faced when trying to calculate the average size of a word I write was that some

letters are used more than others. Letters such as (e, a, and r) have high usage rates with rates of

around (11%, 8% and 7%) respectively. In comparison to letters such as (z j and q) which have a

combined usage rates of less than (1%), when writing any text I would statistically use certain

letters more than others (“Letter Frequencies in the English Language”). In addition, capital

letters only account for 3% of text. (“What Percentage of Characters in Normal English

Literature Is Written in Capitals?”) In order to simplify my data gathering, I made the

assumption that all letters will be used equally. This includes capital and lowercase letters.

The next step was to define what the size an average word I write is, knowing that there were

roughly 5 letters in each word I decided to define the size an average word I write as

The average height of each letter, * 5(avergae length of each letter) + 4(distance between each

letter),
Now that I defined the average size of a word I write, I

started the measuring process. I measuered each letter from

it's furthest point, as you can see I measured the whole letter

so I can find the exact average size of each letter.

After, I measured out the width and height of each letter. I

found that certain letters can be grouped together as they have

similar sizes. Because I used a ruler with 1 milimeter long increments the uncertainty of my

measurements were 1mm/2 = 0.5mm, I could only approximate the measurement to a certain

degree, so I decided to group letters who had similar measurements into groups.

I started off by grouping letters by height, I realised that the height of the letters roughly split

into 3 categories

- All capital letters had the same height of 0.60 cm along with the letters

(b,d,f,g,h,i,k,l,p,q,t,y)

- Letters (a,c,e,m,n,o,r,s,u,v,w,x,z) also share the same height at 0.40 cm

- And the only letter which had a hight of 0.90 cm was the letter j

Then I looked at the length of each letter, and I foind that all of the letters I write have the same

length at 0.4 cm except for letters i and l which have a length of 0.1 cm .
This chart shows the letters categorised into groups according to their heights and widths.

Height of letter in cm Length of letter in cm ± 0.5 mm

± 0.5 mm
0.10 0.40

0.40 0 13

0.60 2 36

0.90 0 1

Through this data, I was able to calculate the average height an length of each letter

2(0.1) + 50(0.4) 20.2

Average length of a letter 𝐴𝐿 = 52
= 52
≈ 0. 39 𝑐𝑚

13(0.4) + 38(0.6) + 1(0.9) 28.9

Average height of a letter 𝐴𝐻 = 52
= 52
≈ 0. 56 𝑐𝑚

I measured out the distance between the lines on my notebook which turned out to be

𝐷 = 0. 9 𝑐𝑚

I also measured the distance between each letter which turned out to be

ß = 0. 10 𝑐𝑚

When calculating the hight and length of a word I split up the word into 2 components in relation

to buffons needle problem. The height of the word being a needle 𝐿𝑠, and the length of the word

being another needle 𝐿𝑙, using my definition of what the size of an average word i write is I

calculated the total length of the word.

𝐿𝑙 = 5(𝐴𝐿) + 4(ß)

𝐿𝑙 ≈ 5(0. 39) + 4(0. 10)

𝐿𝑙 ≈ 2. 34 𝑐𝑚
As for the height of the word, it is simply the same as the height of a letter as I write letters

beside each other rather than ontop of each other in the english language.

∴ 𝐿𝑠 = 𝐴𝐻 = 0. 56 𝑐𝑚

Now that I have come up with an exact measurement of the average word I write, 𝐿𝑙 × 𝐿𝑠, the

next step was for me to calculate the probability in which the word intersects a line on my

notebook 𝑃(𝐿). In order to figure out this probability, I must split up the word into 2 separate

components, being the length of the word 𝐿𝑙 and the height of the word 𝐿𝑠, and calculate their

own probabilities, which is the probability in which the word intersects from it's short side 𝑃(𝐿𝑠),

and the probability in which the word intersects form it's logn side 𝑃(𝐿𝑙). After that I must find

the union of these probabilities in order to find 𝑃(𝐿).

Using my derivation of buffons needle problem earlier, I must compare these lengths to the

distance between the lines on my notebook 𝐷. As mentioned earlier, the probability in which one

of these components crosses a line on my notebook depends on their size compared to 𝐷

If 𝐿 ≤ 𝐷, then the formula I must use to calculate the probability will be

2 𝐿
𝑃= π 𝐷
.
If 𝐿 ≥ 𝐷, then the formula I must use to calculate the probability will be

2
2 𝐿 𝐷 −1 𝐷
𝑃= π
( 𝐷 (1 − 1− 2 ) − 𝑠𝑖𝑛 ( 𝐿 )) + 1 .
𝐿

The height I calculated for the average word I write 𝐿𝑠 is less than the distance between the lines

on my notebook 𝐷, as 0. 56 𝑐𝑚 < 0. 90 𝑐𝑚 therefore to calculate 𝑃(𝐿𝑠), I used the probability

formula for 𝐿 ≤ 𝐷 as follows

2 𝐿𝑠 2 0.56 1.24
𝑃(𝐿𝑠) = π 𝐷
≈ π 0.81
≈ π
≈ 0. 39 → 39%

Moving on to the length of the word 𝐿𝑙, it is greater than the the distance between the lines on my

notebook 𝐷, as 2. 34 𝑐𝑚 > 0. 90 𝑐𝑚 therefore to calculate 𝑃(𝐿𝑙), I used the probability formula

for 𝐿 ≥ 𝐷 as follows

2 𝐿 𝐷
2
−1 𝐷
𝑃(𝐿𝑙) = π
( 𝐷𝑙 (1 − 1− 2 ) − 𝑠𝑖𝑛 ( 𝐿 )) + 1
𝐿𝑙 𝑙

2
2 2.34 0.90 −1 0.90
𝑃(𝐿𝑙) ≈ π
( 0.90 (1 − 1− 2 ) − 𝑠𝑖𝑛 ( 2.34 )) + 1
2.34

2 −1
𝑃(𝐿𝑙) ≈ π
(2. 60(1 − 0. 85) − 𝑠𝑖𝑛 (0. 38)) + 1

2
𝑃(𝐿𝑙) ≈ π
(0. 11 − 0. 39) + 1

−0.64
𝑃(𝐿𝑙) ≈ π
+ 1 ≈ 0. 80 → 80%
 Now that I have figured out the probability for both of these components, I realised that I have 2

of each component (𝐿𝑠1, 𝐿𝑠2, 𝐿𝑙1, 𝐿𝑙2) , meaning that I have to take in account that the word can

intersect a line on my notebook from all four sides, either from one of the 2 long sides or one of

the 2 short sides. This means that I must figure out the probability that at least one of the sides

intersects so i can find the exact probability that none of the sides intersect, in other words it is

the probability that either 𝐿𝑠1, 𝐿𝑠2, 𝐿𝑙1, 𝑜𝑟 𝐿𝑙2 intersects a line on my notebook.

This allows me to find out the exact probability of a word a write intersecting with a line in my

notebook 𝑃(𝐿). I can figure that out by finding the union of all 4 probabilities probabilities, and

since all 4 sides can intersect a line on my notebook at the same time, I can state that all of these

events are independent of each other, thus allowing me to use the following formula.

𝑃(𝐿) = 𝑃(𝐿𝑠1∪ 𝐿𝑠2∪ 𝐿𝑙1∪ 𝐿𝑙2) = 𝑃(𝐿𝑠1) + 𝑃(𝐿𝑠2) + 𝑃(𝐿𝑙1) + 𝑃(𝐿𝑙2) − 𝑃(𝐿𝑠1) × 𝑃(𝐿𝑠2) − 𝑃(𝐿𝑠1) × 𝑃(𝐿𝑙1)
− 𝑃(𝐿𝑠1) × 𝑃(𝐿𝑙2) − 𝑃(𝐿𝑠2) × 𝑃(𝐿𝑙1) − 𝑃(𝐿𝑠2) × 𝑃(𝐿𝑙2) − 𝑃(𝐿𝑙1) × 𝑃(𝐿𝑙2)
+ 𝑃(𝐿𝑠1) × 𝑃(𝐿𝑠2) × 𝑃(𝐿𝑙1) + 𝑃(𝐿𝑠1) × 𝑃(𝐿𝑠2) × 𝑃(𝐿𝑙2) + 𝑃(𝐿𝑠1) × 𝑃(𝐿𝑙1) × 𝑃(𝐿𝑙2) + 𝑃(𝐿𝑠2) × 𝑃(𝐿𝑙1) × 𝑃(𝐿𝑙2)
− 𝑃(𝐿𝑠1) × 𝑃(𝐿𝑠2) × 𝑃(𝐿𝑙1) × 𝑃(𝐿𝑙2)

𝑃(𝐿) = 𝑃(𝐿𝑠1∪ 𝐿𝑠2∪ 𝐿𝑙1∪ 𝐿𝑙2) ≈ 0. 39 + 0. 39 + 0. 80 + 0. 80 − 0. 39 × 0. 39 − 0. 39 × 0. 80

− 0. 39 × 0. 80 − 0. 39 × 0. 80 − 0. 39 × 0. 80 − 0. 80 × 0. 80
+ 0. 39 × 0. 39 × 0. 80 + 0. 39 × 0. 39 × 0. 80 + 0. 39 × 0. 80 × 0. 80 + 0. 39 × 0. 80 × 0. 80
− 0. 39 × 0. 39 × 0. 80 × 0. 80

𝑃(𝐿) = 𝑃(𝐿𝑠1∪ 𝐿𝑠2∪ 𝐿𝑙1∪ 𝐿𝑙2) ≈ 2. 38 − 0. 15 − 4(0. 31) − 0. 64 + 2(0. 12) + 2(0. 25) − 0. 10
𝑃(𝐿) = 𝑃(𝐿𝑠1∪ 𝐿𝑠2∪ 𝐿𝑙1∪ 𝐿𝑙2) ≈ 0. 98 → 98%
Now that Ive figured out the exact probability in which a word a write intersects a line on my

notebook, 𝑃(𝐿), I decided to conduct an experiment to see weather or not this probability works

in the real world, to avoid human error, I decided to not write a word but instead carve out a

piece of card board with the same

dimensions as the average length and

width of a word I write, with area

𝐿𝑠 × 𝐿𝑙 and perimeter 2𝐿𝑠 + 2𝐿𝑙.

I proceeded to drop this piece of cardboard onto my notebook 100 times, taking note of the

probability that each side intersects, ( 𝑃(𝐿𝑠1), 𝑃(𝐿𝑠2), 𝑃(𝐿𝑙1), 𝑃(𝐿𝑙2), ), along with the probability

that any side intersects, which is the probailoty of the piece of cardboard representing the

average word I write intersecting a line on my notebook. (𝑃(𝐿)).

Here are my results along with the percentage error calculated by the following formula.

𝑂𝑏𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑒𝑑 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 − 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒

𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟 = 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒
× 100%
 Probability that a side will intersect a line on

Sides of the Number of times event happened my notebook

catrboard (#) (𝑃) Percentage

piece used to error

Observed probability Expected probability
represent the (%)

average word Intersected a Didnt intersect a Decimal Percentage Decimal Percentage

I write line on my line on my form form form form

(𝐿) notebook notebook (%) (%)

Short side 1 40 60 0. 40 40% 0. 39 39% %

(𝐿𝑠1)

Short side 2 37 63 0. 37 37% 0. 39 39% %

(𝐿𝑠2)

Long side 1 78 22 0. 78 78% 0. 80 80% %

(𝐿𝑙1)

Long side 2 81 19 0. 81 81% 0. 80 80% %

(𝐿𝑙2)

Any side 99 1 1. 00 99% 0. 98 98% %

(𝐿)
Conclusion

The purpose of this experiment was to determine the likelihood of a word I write crossing a line

on my notebook. To achieve this, I calculated the probability using Buffon's needle problem.

I initially struggled to understand the idea of Buffon's needle problem, as the concept was new to

me, but through extensive research and experimentation, I was able to derive the solution. This

allowed me to accurately calculate the probability of a average word I write intersecting a line on

my notebook based on the shape of the average word.

After calculating the probability, I examined its applicability to real-world circumstances. To

achieve this, I conducted an experiment in which I dropped a cardboard cutout with the same

dimensions as the rectangle used to calculate the probability. After comparing the results of this

experiment to the calculated probability, I determined that the observed probability was within a

margin of error of less than 5 percent.

Nevertheless, I was surprised to discover that the likelihood of writing a word on a line was

greater than I had anticipated. Initially, I believed the probability to be approximately 70%, but

then I realized that if the length of an object exceeds the distance between the lines, the

probability of intersection with a line is high, as the word could intersect multiple lines on my

notebook.

In conclusion, I now realize that regardless of how I write, my words will almost always cross a

line on my notebook. This event's absolute probability is approximately 0.998 out of 1.

Evaluation

Despite the fact that the experiment produced results that were close to the expected outcome

with an error factor of less than 5%, there were discrepancies in both the experiment and the

calculation of probability, Uncertainty in measuring the letters was a difficulty that arose. A 1mm

ruler with an uncertainty of 0.5 mm was utilized. All measurements of the words were less than 1

cm, with one measurement being exactly 1 mm with an uncertainty of 0.5 mm, the high level of

uncertainty when measuring such a small distance may have affected the results. However, this

could be remedied by either enlarging the experiment or employing a more precise measuring

instrument.

In addition, when I write in my notebook, I only write horizontally and never vertically or

diagonally. This should have decreased the likelihood of the word crossing a line, as a vertical

word has a 100% chance of crossing a line on the notebook, whereas a horizontal word does not.

In defining the average size of a word, it was determined that a word is a rectangle. In reality,

however, a word is a collection of lines, and there are instances in which a word would not cross

a line due to the presence of space between the lines.

Extentions

This experiment could be expanded in a variety of ways. First, rather than using a rectangle to

represent a word, a replication of an average word could be created. This change would eliminate

the possibility of the rectangle crossing a line on the notebook, even though a real word would

not.

In addition, as with any experiment, it would be sensible to conduct additional trials to determine

whether the results approach the expected probability limit as the number of trials increases.

Several additional errors and considerations could be addressed to increase the precision of the

experiment's results.
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