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Carbon Footprint and Productivity: Does The "E" in Esg Capture Efficiency As Well As Environment?
Carbon Footprint and Productivity: Does The "E" in Esg Capture Efficiency As Well As Environment?
Carbon Footprint and Productivity: Does The "E" in Esg Capture Efficiency As Well As Environment?
59–69
© JOIM 2018
JOIM
www.joim.com
This paper analyses the now-popular carbon ratio (emissions relative to sales) as a way
to select stocks. We document that reduced carbon ratios are associated with stronger
future profitability and positive stock returns in a global universe of stocks. But why? The
prevailing view is that lower emissions reduces a firm’s exposure to future greenhouse gas
regulations or taxes, and the market is slow to appreciate this. However, we find strong
effects in industries such as internet and commercial services where carbon taxes would
have little direct effect. We show that there is a more fundamental connection between
carbon emissions and overall productive efficiency. Most of a firm’s activities, or inputs,
result in some form of carbon emission due to direct energy consumption or indirect
emissions (e.g., travel). We first show evidence that carbon emission works like an input
to production along with the more traditional capital and labour. More importantly, firms
that produce more than expected given their inputs tend to outperform in the future both
in profitability and returns.
This paper analyses the now-popular carbon ratio profitability and stock returns in a global uni-
(Scope 1 and 2 CO2 emissions relative to sales) as verse of stocks. But more importantly, why? The
a way to select stocks. We document that reduced prevailing view is that lower emissions reduce
carbon ratios are associated with stronger future exposure to future greenhouse gas regulations and
taxes and the market has yet to fully incorporate
these effects. However, our results apply to indus-
∗ We thank Ron Guido for his comments and assistance. tries such as internet and commercial services
a Blackrock,400 Howard Street, San Francisco, CA 94104, where carbon emissions are too small to imply
USA. Tel: (415) 793-0208. E-mail: Gerald.garvey@ black- any strong effect from regulation. Furthermore,
rock.com, Mohan.iyer@blackrock.com.
b Blackrock, Level 37, Chifley Tower, 2 Chifley Square, our sample is concentrated in recent years with
Sydney NSW 2000, Australia. E-mail: Joanna.nash@ declining energy prices and unfulfilled promises
blackrock.com of Global Warming regulation.
We emphasize a fundamental connection between have the strongest improvement in their carbon
carbon emissions and overall productive effi- ratios appear to outperform those with deteriorat-
ciency which does not depend on regulation or ing ratios by approximately 2.5% annually.
government action. Most of a firm’s activities, or
Section 1 below defines carbon emissions and
inputs, result in some form of carbon emission
summarizes past work in this area. Section 2
due to direct electricity consumption or indi-
considers the relationship between carbon emis-
rect emissions (e.g., travel). Carbon emissions
sions and efficiency, and Section 3 looks at how
relative to sales, we argue, is a proxy for pro-
this relates to company performance and stock
ductive efficiency and/or effective pricing power.
returns. Finally, Section 4 concludes.
So an improved carbon footprint is associated
with an ability to obtain more revenue from the
same inputs, which in turn reflects improved effi- 1 Background
ciency in areas such as scheduling or inventory
management, or more effective product pricing. 1.1 What is being measured?
Carbon footprint represents the total set of green-
Our first set of tests show that carbon emissions
house http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_
are a productive input in a classical Total Fac-
gas gases caused by an organization, event,
tor Productivity setting (see, e.g., Solow, 1957).
product, or person.1 Greenhouse gas (GHG)
We start with firm revenue as our proxy for out-
emissions include carbon dioxide, methane,
put, total operating assets as a proxy for capital,
nitrous oxide, and related compounds, and are
and headcount as a proxy for labour. We show in
made comparable by converting to carbon diox-
a simple Cobb–Douglas (1928) specification that
ide equivalents where a tonne of carbon dioxide
these two proxies have strong explanatory power
has a global warming potential of one.
and readily interpretable coefficients. We then add
carbon emissions to the regression and find that it The emissions reported are then broken down
has a significant positive incremental effect. The into three “Scopes”. Scope 1 greenhouse gas
implications are (i) increased production gener- emissions are the emissions released to the atmo-
ally involves carbon emissions as well as capital sphere as a direct result of an activity, or series
and labour, and more importantly (ii) firms that of activities of the company. Scope 1 emissions
produce more than expected given their inputs are are sometimes referred to as direct emissions.
more productive. Examples are: emissions produced from manu-
facturing processes, such as from the manufacture
We then show that these productivity results carry of cement; emissions from the burning of diesel
over to more traditional financial performance. fuel in truck; fugitive emissions, such as methane
Firms with improved carbon ratios have higher emissions from coal mines, or production of elec-
future return on assets (ROA) as well as risk- tricity by burning coal. Scope 2 greenhouse gas
adjusted stock returns. These results continue to emissions are released into the atmosphere from
hold when we control for revenue growth. This the indirect consumption of an energy commod-
control is important because while we think of ity. For example, a power station burns coal to
revenue as merely a scalar, improved carbon power its generators and in turn creates electricity.
ratios are inevitably a mix of revenue growth and Burning the coal causes greenhouse emissions to
emissions growth. We find qualitatively similar be emitted. These gases are attributed to the power
but modest effects for stock returns; stocks that station as scope 1 emissions. If the electricity is
then transmitted to a car factory and used there to report their scope 1 and 2 emissions and they can
power its machinery and lighting, the gases emit- voluntarily report their scope 3 emissions. Data
ted as a result of generating the electricity are then in relation to carbon credits or offsets need to be
attributed to the factory as scope 2 emissions. reported separately. Many third-party providers
collect this carbon emissions data on an annual
Scope 3 greenhouse gas emissions are those
basis.
beyond scope 2, generated in the wider economy.
They occur as a consequence of the activities of We use data from the MSCI ESG Manager
a facility, but not from sources owned or con- database. This covers approximately 6400 firms
trolled by that facility’s business. Some examples globally and they collect scope 1, 2, and 3 emis-
are extraction and production of purchased mate- sions. We will focus on scope 1 and 2 emissions
rials, transportation of purchased fuels, use of sold as the number of companies that report scope 3
products and services, and flying on a commercial is relatively small and we believe it is less able
airline by a person from another business. to be accurately measured by the companies. As
noted by Koch and Bassen (2013), the data is
Reporting of carbon emissions is in general volun-
skewed with a small number of large emitters and
tary. For companies with facilities over a certain
a large number of small emitters. There is also a
size, some governments require the amount of
large disparity between scope 1 and 2 emissions
carbon emissions to be reported for that facility,
by company. Some have very large scope 1 and
to the relevant authority, on an annual basis. This
minimal scope 2 where the majority have large
normally covers only scope 1 and 2 emissions as it
scope 2 and minimal scope 1. A histogram of the
is normally done at the facility level. Many com-
total breakdown of scope 1 and 2 emissions by
panies as part of their annual sustainability report-
company for 2015 is shown in Exhibits 1 and 2.
ing voluntarily report their carbon emissions. This
data is provided in annual reports, sustainability
reports, the carbon disclosure project2 (CDP), or 1.2 Past research
some combination of the above. Many compa-
nies follow the GHG accounting and reporting Previous work has largely focused on the link
principles3 which only require that companies between carbon emissions and/or reporting of
component of ESG, where Gompers et al. (2003) Mirvac is an Australian developer of both com-
published a widely followed paper showing that mercial and residential property. They aim to be
firms with stronger governance outperformed net energy positive by 2030 via both reduction in
between 1991 and 1999. Bebchuk et al. (2013) consumption and by producing energy. An exam-
showed that the effect disappeared in the years fol- ple of one of their initiatives is to install LED
lowing the publication of the study (2000–2008) lightening with integrated sensors into the build-
and attribute the original results to a one-time ings they operate and own. For one shopping
appreciation of the virtues of governance. centre this involved an investment of $350,000
with a saving of $135,683 per year. Other mea-
2 Carbon output and efficiency sures they have implemented to improve energy
savings is hot water timers which has led to a
We present two suggestive cases and then show
reduction in 31% of gas usage, whilst another
systematically that emissions are a systematic
project which changed the type of air conditioning
factor in production.
unit used resulted in a reduction of 945 MWh of
energy use over 12 months, 982 tonnes of carbon
2.1 Cases
emissions, and $135,000 in energy savings per
We begin with BT PLC, a British Multinational year. Although these may seem like small individ-
Telecommunications Services Company. One ini- ual initiatives they add up to a substantial savings
tiative that BT has implemented is the use of for the company that is unlikely to be easily picked
field force automation. Field force automation up in financial statements. By implementing these
refers to the use of typically handheld PDAs, projects, Mirvac will be maintaining their out-
wireless devices or mobile phones to capture put (same number of buildings they manage) but
field sales or service information in real time. doing so in a more cost effective and efficient
The captured data is transferred immediately to manner.
back end systems through wireless connectivity.
This instant capture of information reduces time 2.2 Systematic productivity estimates
delays, avoids manual double entry data errors,
and enhances field force productivity. From an We now ask whether these cases generalise in
operations perspective, availability of field infor- larger-sample statistics. We use a classic produc-
mation in near real time allows to plan delivery tivity framework based on the Cobb and Douglas
(1928) production function: Yjt = aj Kjt α Lβ M γ ,
schedules, reduce inventory and monitor, and jt jt
control the field workers. BT has been using these where Yjt is firm j’s output in period t, aj is
systems for a number of years which has helped it firm j’s total factor productivity index, Kjt is
improved its responsiveness to customers as well the amount of capital it uses, Ljt is the amount
as avoiding unnecessary travel. BT was able to of labour, and Mjt is the amount of materials
provide a similar service to Northumbrian Water and other variable inputs. This framework is
allowing them to reduce mileage by around 20%, appealing for practical uses as it is log-linear,
improve productivity by 10% through optimal with the estimated coefficients α, β, γ repre-
job allocation and reduction in travel times. This senting the marginal productivity of each input,
improved efficiency for BT also leads to a new and the sum α + β + γ represent average returns
revenue source. The change in emissions from to scale (greater than 1 means increasing, less
each company was a way to capture these new than 1 means decreasing, equal to 1 means con-
efficiency innovations. stant). Another useful property for our current
At a 10% significance level, all but three of these turnover, sales growth). Using data for compa-
sectors have a significant marginal productivity nies in the MSCI World universe over the period
of carbon. Many of the significant sectors are not 2011 to 2014 we find the following results in
heavy direct carbon emitters; consider Telecom- Exhibit 7.
munications, Consumer staples and Real Estate.
This is consistent with our interpretation of car- The negative sign for carbon ratio indicates that
bon emissions as a marker for a broad class of a fall in the carbon ratio leads to an increase in
input uses. profitability. We also find that asset turnover is
associated with stronger future profitability, sales
3 Carbon intensity and financial on its own is mildly negative, and past sales
performance growth has no discernible effect.
3.1 Profitability
To highlight our claim that carbon ratio is an
The productivity results are novel and illuminat- indicator rather than a driver of fundamental
ing, but are neither predictive nor related directly efficiency, we repeat the analysis removing the
to financial performance. To move to a finan- most carbon-intensive industries. The results are
cial forecasting setting, we first ask whether the shown in Exhibit 8. We can see that even with
change in carbon ratio ([Mt /Yt ] − [Mt−1 /Yt−1 ]) the large emitting industries removed, there is
predicts next year’s return on assets (ROA) con- still a strong and significant relationship between
trolling for past ROA and well-known variables companies that are improving their carbon ratio
related to our key construct (level of sales, asset and ROA.
5/1/2014
11/1/2013
7/1/2011
9/1/2011
11/1/2011
1/1/2012
3/1/2012
5/1/2012
7/1/2012
9/1/2012
11/1/2012
1/1/2013
3/1/2013
5/1/2013
7/1/2013
9/1/2013
1/1/2014
3/1/2014
7/1/2014
9/1/2014
11/1/2014
1/1/2015
3/1/2015
5/1/2015
7/1/2015
9/1/2015
11/1/2015
-0.05
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