CCL Gujarat

Introduction

Global warming poses serious threat to sustenance of life on earth, be it the life of human
beings or the other living creatures. The implications of growing amount of carbon-dioxide
in atmosphere are elaborately discussed in literature 1 & 2. The rapid pace of increasing
human activity is an important reason behind increasing concentration of atmosphere which
is currently hovering around 400 ppm (2013-2014). Effects of rise in global atmospheric CO 2
concentration and the resulting climate change (including global warming) are experience
around the world.

Figure Error! No text of specified style in document..1 Increase in Atmospheric CO2

concentration3 over past decades

1
The current and future consequences of global change, Global Climate Change, National Aeronautics and
Space Administration (NASA, USA) http://climate.nasa.gov/effects

2
Global Energy Assessment (GEA), by International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),
http://www.globalenergyassessment.org/

3
“Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis”, Chapter 2, Figure 2.1, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_Chapter02_FINAL.pdf
Figure Error! No text of specified style in document..2 Rise in Atmospheric
Temperature4 (C) over past decades

Figure 35 compares the year-to-date temperature anomalies for 2017 (black line) to what
were ultimately the eight warmest years on record: 2016, 2015, 2014, 2010, 2013, 2005,
2009, and 1998. Each month along each trace represents the year-to-date average
temperature anomaly. The average global land and ocean surface temperature for January–
July 2017 was 0.90°C (1.62°F) above the 20th century average of 13.8°C (56.9°F)—the
second highest global land and ocean temperature for January–July in the 1880–2017
record, behind 2016 by 0.14°C (0.25°F). The anomalies themselves represent departures
from the 20th century average temperature.

Extreme weather effects are being experience more often at many more places in the recent
years. In INDIA 6 7 8 9 10 too, the frequency and unpredictability of such extreme weather
effects have gone up in the recent years, thus resulting in the loss of precious life and asset.
4
“Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis”, Chapter 2, Box 2.2, Figure 1, Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change

http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_Chapter02_FINAL.pdf

5
National Centres for Environmental Information, USA
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-information/extreme-events

6
Over 1,600 died in India due to extreme weather conditions in 2016, http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-
news/over-1-600-killed-due-to-extreme-weather-patterns-in-2016/story-ZXToWjowatrEYk81af2V4H.html
The number of death in INDIA due to heat stroke 11 during the recent past is mentioned in
Figure 4.

Figure 3 Rise of global average temperature since 20th century (NOAA, USA)

7
Year 2015: Five Extreme Weather Events in India, https://www.skymetweather.com/content/weather-news-
and-analysis/year-2015-five-extreme-weather-events-in-india/

8
Extreme weather events in India in the past 10 years, http://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/extreme-
weather-events-in-india-in-the-past-10-years-46450

9
India crippled by extreme weather as 100 million exposed to floods
https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2016/apr/21/india-drought-flooding-natural-disasters-
risk-population-economy-insurance

10
U.S.De, R.K.Dube and G.S.Prakasa Rao “Extreme Weather Events over India in the last 100 years”, J. Ind.
Geophys. Union ( July 2005 ), Vol.9, No.3, pp.173-187

11
National Crime Record Bureau, Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of INDIA,
Figure 4 Death rate due to Heat/Sun stroke in INDIA (NCRB, MHA, INDIA)

The possibility and frequency of occurrence of such extreme weather event is largely
uniform for various different geographical locations around the world. However, the scale
of damage due such environmental disaster is dependent on the disaster preparedness of
the local people, government and the available infrastructure. This is the reason behind the
disproportionately large damage meted by the developing or the under developed countries
(such as INDIA) as compared to the developed world. Besides such disaster preparedness,
there are many more developmental goals inspiring the local governments to work towards
superior economic growth rate with the ultimate aim of achievement of better standard of
living for their citizenry. More often than not, such superior economic growth rate is
achieved at the expense of intensive (and perhaps inefficient too) exploitation of natural
resources. INDIA accounts for ___ % of world population of which ___ % can be considered
to be underprivileged. Since past several decades, the successive government in INDIA have
been targeting the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 7 % or higher. Current government has
put forward the ambitious target of providing a secure home fulfilling the necessities of life
to everyone in INDIA by 2022. In addition, several other transportation, irrigation or
amenities project are under various phase of planning or engineering or construction. These
projects would demand large amount of construction material including cement.
Historically, the growth rate of cement demand in INDIA has been second only to China.
The intensity of the Effect of global warming and global climate change are being felt around
the world in affecting

per capita income and standard of living in INDIA, their dependence on infrastructure

Importance of cement sector for infrastructure development planned for the coming
decades

CO2 emission from Cement Plant and its proportion among other sources of CO 2 emission in
INDIA

Expected rise in CO2 emission in the coming decades

Gujarat Cement Plant Installed capacity per plant is 0.5 to 5.8 Million Tonnes per Annum
(largely under 3 TPA), total 18.72 TPA as of 2012

CO2 Emission of Indian cement industry has reduced from 1.12 t CO2 / t cement in 1996 to
0.719 t CO2 / t cement in 2010 Reference 1

Composition of Fluegas from Cement Plant Reference 2

Base Case streams –

20 Clinker - 28.48 kg/s Clinker

23 Clinker Cooler and Bag Filter - 0.02 kg/s CO2 is 0.03 mol %

26 Fuel drying and bag Filter 2.55 kg/s CO2 32.8 mol %

27 Raw Mill and Bag Filter 22.99 kg/s CO2 24.42 mol %

45 – TOTAL – 44.06 kg/s CO2 – 20.85 %

CO2 kg / Clinker kg = (0.02 + 2.55 + 22.99) / 28.48 = 25.56 / 28.48 = 0.8975

Post-combustion CO2 capture streams - Reference 2

21 – Clinker – 28.48 kg/s

31 - 22.37 kg/s CO2 – 23.74 mol %

32 – 2.55 kg/s CO2 – 31.88 mol %

39 – 18.99 kg/s CO2 – 17.39 %

45 – TOTAL – 44.06 kg/s CO2 – 20.85 %

CO2 kg / Clinker kg = 44.06 / 28.48 = 1.547

Cement production at 3 MTPA may result in 2.1 to 3.45 MTPA CO2 emission

This translates to 240 TPH to 293 TPH

240 TPH CO2 is produced by 312.4 MWg SCPF power generation

293 TPH CO2 is produced by 381.4 MWg (616.7 MW net ?? > than gross ??) SCPF
power generation

Techno-Economic Data for Calcium Looping CO2 Capture plant handling 293 TPH CO 2 is as
under:

1603 TPH fluegas input at 53.5 °C and 1338 TPH fluegas exit at 50 °C

2809 TPH Lean sorbent feed and 3338 TPH Rich sorbent exit at 650 °C – including 70.46 TPH
purge and 97.34 TPH make-up

Oxygen feed is 238.1 TPH at 9x % purity

CO2 Capture = 265 TPH

CO2 production in Calciner = 605.5 TPH

Power Generation by Heat Recovery from Carbonator = 366.6 MW

CAPEX for CO2 Capture Capital Cost 40 % Loc. Fact.

( $ / kW-net ) ( $ / kW-net )

Carbonator 615.9

Calciner 343.6

ASU 289.9

Blower 7.697

CO2 Product Compressor 100.1

CO2 Cryogenic Purification Unit 46.34

Heat Recovery Steam Generator 151.1

Coal Handling Equipment ofr ASU 88.08

Solid Handling Equipment 132.2

Steam Turbine for Power Generation 166.4

=========
 Process facility \Capital ( Total ) = 1941 776.4 $ / kW-net

CO2 Capture Plant Cost Capital Cost 40 % Loc. Fact.

( $ / kW-net ) ( $ / kW-net )

Process Facility Capital 1941

General Facility Capital 194.1

Engineering & Home Office Fees 135.9

Process Contingency Cost 510.5

Project Contingency Cost 553.4

Interest Charges ( AFUDC ) 242.1

Royalty Fees 9.707

Preproduction ( Startup ) Cost 85.18

Inventory ( Working ) Capital 16.67

Financing Cost 0

Other Owner’s cost 0

=======

Total Capital Requirement ( TCR ) 3689 1475.6 $ / kW-net

CAPEX of Calcium Looping CO2 capture plant = 1475.6 $ / kW-net X 616.7 MW net X 64
INR / $ = 58240.16128 M INR

O & M Cost – Variable and Fix

Variable O & M Cost Levelized O & M Cost ( $ / MW-h )

Sorbent 4.008

Coal 7.721

Caustic ( NaOH ) 0

Waste Disposal 1.654

Solid Byproduct Credit 0

Electricity 9.04
Auxiliary Power Credit - 30.27 not considered for INDIA

CO2 Transport 1.737

CO2 Storage 2.607

=========

Total Variable Cost - 3.49 33.76 x 40 % LF = 15.04

Fix O & M Cost Levelized O & M Cost ( $ / MW-h )

Operating Labour 0.09739

Maintenance Labour 4.058

Maintenance Material 6.088

Administrative and Support Labour 1.247

Taxes and Insurance 0

=========

Total Fix Cost 11.49 11.49 x 40 % LF = 4.596

=========

Total O & M Cost 8.002 15.04 + 4.596 = 19.636

Cement plant valuation

Reliance Cement - 5.8 million tonne per annum cement plant in Maharashtra - enterprise
value of about 5,000 crore (guessed as INR) in Q3 2015-16 – 5000 / 5.8 = 862 Crore / MTPA

Lafarge sell to Birla – 5.5 MTPA for 5000 crore – 909.1 Crore / MTPA

UltraTech Cement acquiring JP Associates’ 4.7 mtpa cement plant and allied assets in
Madhya Pradesh for `5,300 crore - 1127.66 Crore / MTPA

most sellers are expecting a valuation of $160 a tonne

Anything around $145-150 a tonne (975.415 to 1009.05 Crore INR / Million Tonne) is
reasonable price for a good profitable company with adequate raw material back up given
the fact that a new cement plant would require an investment of about $120 (INR 807.24
Crore / Million Tonne) a tonne and five years to become operational
USD – INR in January 2016 = 67.27

Total Capital Cost of US $ 120 to 140 / tonne (720.72 to 840.84 Crore INR / Million Tonne) to
set up a cement plant (in INDIA) –

USD – INR in July 2014 = 60.06

Nirma purchasing LafargeHolcim’s 11 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) India portfolio (in
2016) for an enterprise value of approximately Rs 9,400 crore ($1.4 billion) – 854.55 Crore
INR / Million ton

INDIA Cement plant CAPEX is in the range of 7200 to 11270 INR / (Tonne/year)

In 2010, HOLCIM’s total capital cost for Ste. Genevieve was $1.6 billion (versus the original
estimate of $800 million to $900 million). This plant is located on the border of Illinois with
Missouri at USA.

The plant's annual production capacity is 4 million tonnes of cement.

In 2010 USD was equivalent to around 45 INR.

This plant cost is equivalent to:

Cement Production 4 M Tonne/year USA Cement plant CAPEX

CAPEX Maximum 1600 M$ 400 $ / (Tonne/year) 18000 INR/(Tonne/year)

CAPEX Minimum 800 M$ 200 $ / (Tonne/year) 9000 INR/(Tonne/year)

Location factor for cement and allied industry of INDIA with respect to USA is 7200 / 18000
to 11270/9000 = 40 % to 125.22 %

BCSP (Breakeven Cement Selling Price) for Cement Plant without CO2 capture

Overnight CAPEX of 3 MTPA Cement Plant 3 M (7200 to 11270 INR) = 21600 M to 33810 M

OPEX 5460 INR / tonne - year (Assumed Ref. 4)

Payback Period 15 years

DCF 8%

BCementSP including CCL 1007 to 4060 INR / Tonne Cement

Calculation of CO2 Avoidance Cost

without CO2 capture with CO2 capture

Cement Production ( Tonne / 3 Million 3 Million
year )

Cement Production ( TPH ) 342.23 342.23

CO2 production ( kg / s ) 293 TPH 521.9 TPH (cement prod. +

cal’r)

Rate of CO2 capture ( % ) 0% 90 %

Breakeven Cement price 5405.5 6326.5

( INR / Tonne Cement)

CO2 Emission 293 TPH 29.29 TPH (from Carb’tor)

CO2 Emission rate (kg CO2 / 97.66 9.7633

kg Cement)

CO2 Avoided (Tonne CO2 / Nil 87.8966

Tonne Cement)

CO2 Avoidance Cost (INR / (6326.5 – 5405.5) INR / Tonne Cement / 87.8966 Tonne
Tonne Cement) CO2 / Tonne Cement

10.47

Reference 1

GHG REDUCTION POTENTIALS IN THE INDIAN CEMENT INDUSTRY – A WAY FORWARD

*P Fonta, **A K Mishra, **S K Chaturvedi, **A Pahuja, *C Twigg, ***N Trudeau, ***C Tam,

****PV Kiran Ananth, *E Sar

*World Business Council for Sustainable Development, Geneva, Switzerland

**National Council for Cement and Building Materials, Delhi, India

***International Energy Agency, Paris, France

****Confederation of Indian Industry, CII – Godrej Green Business Centre, Hyderabad, India

Reference 2

CO2 Capture in the Cement Industry Technical Study Report Number 2008/3
Reference 3

Cement sector M&As lie stalled over valuation

Suresh P Iyengar 12 January 2016

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/companies/cement-sector-mas-lie-stalled-over-
valuation/article8098768.ece

Reference 4

Industry Analysis: Cement – Part 2 July 2, 2014 | Vishal Khandelwal

https://www.safalniveshak.com/industry-analysis-cement-part2/

Reference 5

Nirma trumps bigger rivals like Piramal, JSW to win Lafarge Cement assets for $1.4 billion

By Arijit Barman , Rajesh Naidu July 12, 2016

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/indl-goods/svs/cement/nirma-trumps-
bigger-rivals-like-piramal-jsw-to-win-lafarge-cement-assets-for-1-4-billion/articleshow/
53162777.cms

Reference 6

http://www.x-rates.com/average/?from=USD&to=INR&amount=1&year=2014

Reference 7

The Global Cement Report™ – 12th Edition

https://www.cemnet.com/Publications/Item/176633/the-global-cement-report-12th-
edition.html

Reference 8

https://seekingalpha.com/article/243191-holcims-newest-u-s-plant-illustrates-cement-
economics 22 December 2010

Reference 9
http://reports.lafargeholcim.com/2015/annual-report/financials/md-a/investment-
activities.html

Reference 10

Table II of Western Coalfield _ CIL Price Notification Dt 29.05.2016

http://westerncoal.gov.in/sites/default/files/userfiles/notice_354.pdf

Reference 11

Indonesian government’s coal reference price, known as HBA or Harga Batubara Acuan,
surged 44 per cent on year in July to $83.97/mt, a seven month high.

$83.97/mt - 5611 Rs / Tonne Coal

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/indl-goods/svs/metals-mining/imported-
thermal-coal-prices-may-soften-from-october/articleshow/60050579.cms

Reference 12

Imported thermal coal prices may soften from October (2017)

By Debjoy Sengupta, ET Bureau | Updated: Aug 14, 2017, 01.28 AM IST |

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/indl-goods/svs/metals-mining/imported-
thermal-coal-prices-may-soften-from-october/articleshow/60050579.cms

Reference 13

http://www.gmdcltd.com/products/lignite.aspx

Reference 14

Electricity Tariff of Torrent Power (Accessed in August 2017)

https://connect.torrentpower.com/tplcp/index.php/searchTariff/index
Reference 15

All-india cement prices dip in June (2017)

By: Kotak Institutional Equities | Published: June 13, 2017 3:19 AM

http://www.financialexpress.com/market/all-india-cement-prices-dip-in-june/714714/