88

River metamorphosis and

environmental change in the
Macdonald Valley, New South
Wales, since 1949
WAYNE D. ERSKINE

A signijicant metamorphosis of channel form occurred on the lower

Macdonald River between 1949 and 1955; width and width-depth ratio
increased and depth, sinuosity and weighted mean per cent silt-clay in the
channelperimeter decreased. The channel has remained unstable since 1955,
exhibitingfrequent variations in bed elevation and a recent period of minor
channel contraction followed by slight enlargement. Since 1946 there has
been an increase in summer and annual rainfall and an abrupt, upward shijt
of the annual series flood frequency curve. As a result an increased
proportion of the total sediment load of the river is now being transported
as bed-material load. The change in sediment load is a result of greater stream
competence and the consequent reworking of sandy sediment temporarily
stored within the channel as benches. The observed channel changes are a
quasi-adjustment to the increased flood and bed-material load discharges.

River metamorphosis refers to the complete transformation of river morphology as a

consequence of alterations to the hydrologic regime of the drainage basin (Schumm, 1969a).
All aspects of river channel form will respond to a sufficiently large change in hydrologic regime
(i.e. the discharge and sediment load time series). Water and sediment discharge are, in turn,
mainly controlled by the environmental characteristics of the basin (Schumm and Lichty, 1965).
River metamorphosis should therefore be indicative of environmental change. The nature of
this relationship, however, is often unclear and complicated by the effects of large floods (for
example, see Cooke and Reeves, 1976). Burkham (1981) and Hickin (1983) identified large
floods as important initiators of relatively long periods of transient behaviour or instability.
This type of channel response has been variously termed ‘non-equilibrium river form’ (Stevens
et al., 1975), ‘flood-induced channel changes’ (Burkham, 1981) or ‘flood-dominated channel
morphology’ (Hickin, 1983).

River Management Branch, N.S.W. Water Resources Commission, P.O. Box 952, North Sydney, N.S.W.
2060.
Australian Geographical Studies 24, April 1986
River Metamorphosis 89

Recent studies in central eastern New South Wales have highlighted the importance of a
post-1946 secular rainfall change as a cause of river metamorphosis (Pickup, 1976; Young,
1976; Erskine and Bell, 1982; Warner, 1983). The physical impact of this rainfall change,
however, may be compounded by recent land use changes, such as urbanisation and sand
extraction (Warner et al., 1977). Under these conditions it is difficult, a t best, to isolate the
hydrologic and sedimentologic effects of a specific environmental change. Nevertheless, a
significant adjustment of channel geometry can be induced by a relatively small increase in
annual rainfall (Rango, 1970).
A distinction must be made between the immediate and underlying causes of river
metamorphosis. For example, Erskine and Bell (1982) recognised that the sequence of large
floods recorded in the Hunter Valley between 1949 and 1956 produced dramatic channel changes.
They argued, however, that this sequence of events was not just a highly improbable occurrence
but instead marked the onset of a change in hydrologic regime characterised by increased flood
frequency. This increased frequency of moderate and large floods between 1949 and 1978
maintained a n enlarged river channel.
The purpose of this article is to extend and update Henry’s (1977) previous work on channel
changes in the lower Macdonald River in central eastern New South Wales (Fig. 1) and determine
the probable cause of the changes. Bell (1966a; 1966b) first recorded a substantial increase
in annual rainfall since 1945 in the Macdonald Valley and Erskine (1978) significantly expanded
this work. Riley (1980) suggested that the recent channel changes described by Henry (1977)
may be a direct consequence of correlative variations in rainfall and flood frequency. This
article explores in detail Riley’s suggestion.
The study reach of the lower Macdonald River, extending from the present upstream limit
of tidal influence near Wrights Creek to Mogo Creek, is shown in Figure 1. T h e catchment
area at the St. Albans river gauging station is 1680 km’. A detailed description of catchment
and channel characteristics is contained in Erskine and Melville (1983) and is not repeated here.
The Macdonald River is a n active sand-bed stream closely confined by sandstone valley walls
(third degree confinement of Lewin and Brindle, 1977).

RIVER METAMORPHOSIS
Early descriptions of the channel of the Macdonald River in the study reach refer to a sandy
bed with bars and pools and sandy overbank deposits (Hall, 1926). Many examples of river
bank erosion during major floods of the last 150 years are mentioned by Hutton Neve (1978).
It was also noted that bed aggradation and the consequent downstream displacement of wharves
and the limit of tidal influence invariably followed these events (see also Henry, 1977).
The first study of channel changes o n the Macdonald River was by Dyson (1966) who
concluded that progressive bed aggradation had occurred over approximately forty years as
a result of soil erosion in forested areas. Following Lamy and Junor (1965a; 1965b), bushfires
and the subsequent reduction in ground cover were recognised as the main cause of the
accelerated erosion. Scholer (1974) believed that aggradation had been occurring over a longer
time span and had been associated with a decrease in sinuosity. A detailed study by Henry
(1977) clearly demonstrated that the earlier investigations had failed to recognise the timing,
three-dimensional nature and magnitude of the channel changes. It was maintained that major
changes had only occurred between 1949 and 1955 in response to a sequence of large floods
and included a trebling of width, 3 metres of bed aggradation, transformation of cross-sectional
form from V- to U-shape and the cutoff of two consecutive bends. Bank erosion was identified
as the main source of sand. Hutton Neve’s (1978) descriptions of bank erosion, road destruction
 90 Australian Geographical Studies

Fig. I Location map of the study reach on the lower Macdonald River. For location of catchment see
Figure 5 .
River Metamorphosis 91

TABLE I
.)

A SUMMARY O F THE FLOOD HISTORY OF THE MACDONALD RIVER AT ST ALBANS

~~

Flood Gauge height Peok insrontoneous discharge

m mJ/s

1867 10.80’ N/A

May 1889 12.34’ N/A
1913 11.58’ N/A
18th June 1949 11.883 N/A
June 1950 >8.40 N/A
6th Aug. 1952 > 8.40 N/A
13-14 Aug. 1952 approx.9.90‘ N/A
24-26 Feb. 1955 6.65’ 596
Feb. 1956 4.626 313E
May 1962 7.87‘ 773E
29 April 1963 6.71’ 603
1 1 June 1964 7.62’ 736
7 August 1967 4.88’ 35 1
Jan. 1971 4.956 361E
11-12Jan. 1974 4.42’ 311
4-5 June 1974 6.71’ 595
4 March 1977 7.10’ 663
20 March 1978 8.40’ 891
2 June 1978 5.20’ 405

Note: The gauging station was installed in September 1954 and the gauge zero is R.L. 2.81111
Standard
Datum. For location of site see Figure 1.
Sources: 1 Hutton Neve (1978); 2 Field survey of historic flood mark by author; 3 Rankine and Hill
(1963); 4 Henry (1977); 5 Records of the Water Resources Commission; and 6 Author’s estimate
obtained by correlation with neighbouring river gauging stations. N/A -not available; E-estimated
discharge.

and massive overbank deposition by the June 1949 flood conflict with Henry’s conclusion that
this event did not result in any noteworthy geomorphic change. The following subsections present
new quantitative data on post-I949 channel changes.
1949-19-75
A detailed description of the 1949-55 floods is contained in Henry (1977) and Hutton Neve
(1978) and a summary of the presently available information on the flood history of the
Macdonald River is shown in Table I. Only major floods are listed for the period before 1955
and only events with a peak instantaneous discharge greater than 300 m’/s are listed for the
period after 1955. Although at least five large floods were recorded between 1949 and 1955,
the May 1889 flood is the largest since European occupation.
Changes.in planform during this period included two cutoffs at Flemings Creek in 1952
(Henry, 1977) and another just downstream of St Albans in about 1949 (Fig. 1). At the site
of the latter cutoff, early survey plans show that the Macdonald River was located north-east
of its present position up to a t least 1920 (Dalgety, 1842; Parish of St Albans, 1st to 4th Edition
maps). Local landowners believed that the former course was abandoned during the 1949 flood
( G . Thompson, pers. comm.; the late A. Smith, pers. comm.) and this date is consistent with
92 Australian Geographical Studies

A
FLOODPLAIN FLOODPLAIN
20 -
18-

16-
-t
--E
14-

12-

10-

8-
LEFT BANK RIGHT BANK
67
0 50 100 150 2CQ
(metres)

B
FLOODPLAIN

--
-1954
1980
(201339)

Fig. 2 (A) Channel cross section at Fernances buried bridge showing the pre-1949 and present channel
widths. For location of site see Figure 1 .
(B) Channel changes at the St Albans river gauging station. The 1954 cross section was provided
by New South Wales Water Resources Commission (Trac. Cat. 20/339). For location of site
see Figure 1.

the granting of the first grazing lease over the site by the Department of Lands in 1953. The
above cutoffs shortened the river by 950 metres reducing sinuosity from 1.16 to 1.06 (Erskine
and Melville. 1982). A ‘slightly indurated, reddish sandy clay deposit’ (Blong and Gillespie,
1978, 40) was exposed by the Flemings Creek cutoffs and formed a well defined knickpoint
which is still acting as a bed control (Fig. 1).
River Metamorphosis 93

TABLE I1

CHANNEL DIMENSIONS OF THE ABANDONED AND PRESENT CHANNEL OF THE

MACDONALD RIVER AT FLEMINGS CREEK IN 1978

Cross Width Maximum Width-deprh Weighted mean

Section depth ratio per cent silt-clay
m m

Abandoned
Channel
A-A 56.2 7.6 7.4 9.9
B-B' 55.8 1.2 7.8 7.8
C-C 13.5 5.3 13.9 4.5
Present Channel
4 - 4' 64.0 2.0 32.0 0.8
5-5' 82.0 3.4 24.1 0.9
6-6' 97.0 2.0 48.5 0.3

Note: For location of cross sections see Figure 1.

The quantification of cross-sectional changes during this period is more difficult because
channel changes usually destroy the pre-existing form, thereby removing the basis for comparison
(Schumm, 1969b). This is especially important on the Macdonald River because most early
survey plans did not cover the channel and benches where the changes occurred (Henry, 1977).
Furthermore, there are no early small-scale topographic maps and only one pre- 1949 vertical
air photograph of the study reach. At two sites, however, the pre-1949 channel geometry has
been preserved. Channel width has remained unchanged at Fernances buried bridge (Fig. 1)
where a marked localised channel contraction occurs between two sharp-angle bends cut in
bedrock. The bridge beams are still present and allow accurate determination of the former
channel width. Figure 2A shows a surveyed cross section through the old bridge site. Former
channel width corresponds to that at the existing dominant bench level which is 26.4 metres.
Upstream and downstream benchfull width is about 64.4 metres, an increase of 144 per cent.
Elsewhere in the study reach benches are not so extensive, having been partially destroyed by
repeated floods since 1949 (Henry, 1977; Hutton Neve, 1978).
The upstream cutoff at Flemings Creek also preserved the pre-1949 channel form (Henry,
1977). The dimensions of the former channel have been reconstructed from the channel-fill
stratigraphy of three cross sections at the apex of the abandoned bend (Fig. 3). Table I1 lists
the dimensions and weighted mean per cent silt-clay (Schumm, 1960) of the former channel
at each cross section. Three cross sections of the present channel at a similar location on the
new alignment were surveyed for comparison (Table 11). Although it is evident from Table
I1 that the present channel is wider than the pre-1949 channel there is some overlap between
the two data sets. The change in width ranges from - 13 to +74 per cent. Comparison of
the 1941 air photograph of the bend downstream of Wellums Creek with 1954 and 1965
photographs of the same area demonstrates that a small increase in width has occurred. A
substantial reduction in maximum depth and increase in width-depth ratio since 1949 is evident
from Table 11. Furthermore the weighted mean per cent silt-clay in the channel perimeter has
changed from about 7 per cent in 1949 to less than 1 per cent in 1978. Erskine and Melville
94 A ustralian Ceographical Studies

LEFT BANK RIGHT BANK

Loamy sand
L i g h t s a n d y c l a y loam. occasional l a y e r s o f p e a t
F i n e sandy loam
L a m i n a t e d s a n d s w i t h some c h a r c o a l i n t e r b e d s
I L o c a t i o n o f a u g e r or c o r e h o l e

Fig. 3 Stratigraphy of the channel-fill deposits of the Flemings Creek neck cutoff (after Erskine and
Melville, 1982). Texture classes are after Northcote (1974). For location of sites see Figure 1.

(1983) also found that the weighted mean per cent silt clay was less than 1 per cent at nine
upstream cross sections in the study reach in 1978.
Henry (1977)demonstrated that the bed aggraded by 3 metres between 1949 and 1955.The
evidence presented for the study reach included the burial of a number of low-level bridges
(Fig. l), sedimentation around the piles of the high-level bridge at St Albans, formation of
four floodplain lakes (Fig. 1) and the downstream displacement of wharves and the limit of
tidal influence. Figure 2B shows that 0.9 m of aggradation occurred at the St Albans gauging
station after 1954.Variations in cease-to-flow height since 1954 (see below) indicate that most
of this aggradation was produced by the February 1955 flood (Fig. 4). The 1941 air photograph,
by showing that there was definitely no floodplain lake on Wellums Creek, lends support to
Henry’s conclusions. Similiarly, the First Edition ‘St Albans’ 1 Mile Sheet (March 1934)depicts
three of the lakes as swamps or marshes. However, maps compiled from surveys undertaken
last century show lakes at all the present sites at various times (see Meehan, 1829;Anon, 183 1;
Shoue, 1848; 1849;Arthur, 1855). In 1848 and 1849 the lake on Mogo Creek had a similar
River Metamorphosis 95

surface area to that existing after 1955 (Shoue, 1848; 1849). This apparent conflict o n the time
of formation of the lakes may be explained by the episodic filling of these backwater zones
during large floods before 1949. During dry periods without major floods these flood basins
would dry out by evaporation and/or drainage to the Macdonald River. With the exception
of the two downstream examples (Fig. l ) , however, the lakes have been perennial since 1955
(including the droughts of the mid-1960’s and 1979-83). It is believed that Henry’s conclusion
of 3 metres of aggradation between 1949 and 1955 is correct.
The February 1955 flood was recognised by Henry (1977) as the event that destroyed large
areas of bench and floodplain. However, it would appear that the major changes occurred
before 1955 because there are no obvious changes in channel width between the 1954 and 1965
aerial photographs of the study reach. Figure 2B indicates that the channel at the St Albans
gauging station was wider in 1954 than at any time since. Morris (in Hutton Neve, 1978)
concluded that the two floods of August 1952 were the most destructive, a view supported
by the long-term residents of the area interviewed for this study. Ellis (undated) also found
that the August 1952 floods resulted in greater channel enlargement than the February 1955
flood in the neighbouring Baerami Valley. Similarly, Congewai Creek in the closely confined
reach near Wollombi was extensively eroded in August 1952 (Benson, 1952) but was little affected
by the February 1955 flood (Committee of Advice on Flood Control and Mitigation, 1957).
In summary, the channel changes between 1949 and 1955 consisted of a reduction in sinuosity
from 1.16 to 1.06, a substantial widening (up to about 150 per cent) of the channel by the
partial destruction of in-channel benches, about 3 metres of bed aggradation, a change in cross-
sectional form from a width-depth ratio of less than I5 to greater than 24 and a marked reduction
in the weighted mean per cent silt-clay in the channel perimeter from about 7 per cent to less
than 1 per cent. A trebling of channel width (Henry, 1977) is not supported by the new data.
1956-1978
Although n o major floods were recorded during this period there were six events which
equalled or exceeded the February 1955 flood (Table I). These moderate events occurred in
two distinct temporal clusters: three between May 1962 and June 1965 and another three between
June 1974 and March 1978. Erskine and Melville (1983) have demonstrated that moderate floods
have a significant impact on the channel causing extensive bank erosion and u p to 0.3 m of
bed aggradation. In the absence of another moderate flood at least four years are required
for channel recovery from such impacts (Erskine and Melville, 1984).
The channel changed little between 1955 and 1970 but contracted and slightly degraded
between 1970 and 1974. The post-1970 changes were interpreted by Henry (1977) as the initiation
of a recovery phase from the earlier destruction. Figure 4 shows fluctuations in cease-to-flow
height at the St Albans gauge since September 1954. This is a reliable representation of variations
in bed elevation over time because gauge zero has not changed since 1954 and the gauge does
not have a control structure. There is no trend over the last twenty-four years in bed elevation,
only fluctuations over a range of about 0.25 m caused by the movement of bedload waves
past the gauge (Erskine and Melville, 1983; 1984). Phases of aggradation generally correspond
to moderate floods such as February 1955, May 1962, March 1977 and March 1978. Between
1970 and June 1974 the bed did degrade by 0.2 m, as noted by Henry, but since the June 1974
flood bed elevation has changed markedly over relatively short periods and has not continued
degrading.
Comparison of 1954, 1965, 1970 and 1975 aerial photographs of the study reach shows no
major channel changes. Channel width, including the bed and unvegetated bars and low benches,
96 Australian Geographical Studies

1962
1
Fig. 4 Variations in cease-to-flow height at the St Albans river gauging station (Index No. 212010) since
October 1954. Data compiled from rating tables of the New South Wales Water Resources
Commission. For location of the gauge see Figure 1.

has remained virtually constant since 1954. There have been no planform changes either over
this period; the new channel at the three recent cutoffs has remained stable.
Henry surveyed a number of cross sections of the Macdonald River in 1973. Six of his sites
in the study reach were resurveyed in late 1978 in an attempt to determine recent changes.
The exact sites of Henry's cross sections could not be relocated, therefore between two and
four sections were surveyed in a 100 m reach centred o n the approximate site of the earlier
survey. Table 111 shows changes in channel geometry between the two surveys. Width and
maximum depth were determined for a stage corresponding to the first significant bench and
the values for the 1978 survey were averaged over the number of cross sections for each site.
Width increased at four, and maximum depth at five, of the six sites. No trends are evident
for width-depth ratio. The minor reduction in width at site five (the gauge) was caused by
the formation of a bench-like point bar during the March 1978 flood. Changes in maximum
depth are hard t o interpret because neither survey was levelled onto a bench mark which would
have enabled a comparison of reduced levels of the bed to be made between the surveys. The
Macdonald River has exhibited some widening since 1973 terminating a short period of minor
contraction recognised by Henry. The recent series of moderate floods ( I 974-78) caused this
widening. Clearly there has been no tendency for the channel to recover from the 1949-55
metamorphosis.
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE: I POST-EUROPEAN CATCHMENT DISTURBANCE
Dyson (1966) concluded from a reconnaissance inspection of the Macdonald River catchment
that channel aggradation was due primarily to accelerated soil erosion throughout the basin.
The most important factor causing the erosion was fire, with land use practices and poorly
constructed roads also being significant.
As noted by Henry (1977), Dyson did not recognise the timing and three-dimensional nature
of the channel changes. River bank erosion was therefore not identified as a significant source
of sand (Henry, 1977; Erskine and Melville, 1983; 1984). In conflict with Dyson's findings
the New South Wales Soil Conservation Service has shown that at the very time that channel
aggradation was occurring the upper Macdonald Valley was not experiencing extensive erosion
(Anon., 1954: 23 and 183)! Henry (1977) and Hutton Neve (1978) have also demonstrated
that the population of the Macdonald Valley peaked in 1841 and progressively decreased to
at least 1971. There is n o evidence either t o indicate that the declining population was
compensated by increased agricultural production. Catchment disturbance has been so small
since European occupation that Helman and others (1976) identified a large part of the
River Metamorphosis 97

TABLE I11

CHANGES IN CHANNEL GEOMETRY OF THE LOWER MACDONALD RIVER

BETWEEN 1973 AND 1978

Cross Year Number Maximum Width-

Site sections of of cross Width Depth depth
(Fig. 1) survey sections m m ratio

1 - 1913 1 56.1 1.65 22.2

192 1918 2 68.3 2.40 28.5
2 - 1913 1 108.5 3.20 33.9
5,6 1918 2 89.5 2.70 36.3
3 - 1913 1 92.2 1.02 90.4
1,8,9 1918 3 103.9 1.80 51.7
4 - 1913 1 48.5 1.oo 48.5
10,l I , 12.13 1918 4 55.0 1.92 28.1
5 - 1913 1 49.6 1.70 29.2
14,15,16 1918 3 41.2 3.19 12.5
6 - 1913 1 53.8 1.71 31.5
21.22.23 1978 3 13.1 I .93 37.9

Note: For location of cross sections see Figure 1 .

Macdonald catchment as a wilderness area (i.e. a core area of 38,400 ha that is perceived to
be natural and where genetic diversity and natural cycles remain essentially unaltered surrounded
by a buffer zone of about 25,000 ha or more). Over 95 per cent of the catchment is still under
native forest (Henry, 1977).
While bush fires, roads and land management practices have undoubtedly increased sediment
yields from extra-channel sources since European settlement, there is no evidence to indicate
that they are the main cause of the post-1949 channel changes.
I1 AN IMPROBABLE SEQUENCE OF LARGE FLOODS
Henry (1977) hypothesised that the primary cause of the channel changes was the cumulative
effect of repeated high floods between 1949 and 1955, probably accentuated by a raised
floodplain water table resulting from channel aggradation and the unprecedented rainfall of
1950. This sequence of events was undoubtedly the immediate cause of the changes and provides
another example of flood-related channel changes. A number of lines of evidence, however,
suggest that these floods were not the underlying cause. Gupta and Fox (1974), from an
investigation of the impact of three large floods on channel form of the Patuxent River, found
that although the net effect of the floods was substantial, the resultant damage was repaired
by succeeding moderate flows through the rebuilding of banks and bars. Such restoration to
the previously-existing channel form over a relatively short time period has been considered
characteristic of rivers in humid climates, such as that of the Macdonald Valley (see Wolman
and Gerson, 1978). The recuperative capacity of a river channel is dependent upon moisture
availability and vegetation (Wolman and Gerson, 1978). Schumm and Lichty (1963) concluded
that the Cimarron River narrowed during relatively wet periods, following the establishment
of vegetation and in the absence of large floods. Channel widening, on the other hand, was
a response to large floods during relatively dry periods. These trends were, nevertheless,
characterised by marked fluctuations in channel geometry. In the next section it is demonstrated
98 Australian Geographical Studies

I 1

Gauging station

Fig. 5 Isolines of Baker’s (1977) Flash Flood Magnitude Index and location map of the Macdonald River
catchment and of rainfall and river gauging stations referred to in the text.

that there has been a highly significant increase in summer and annual rainfall over the
Macdonald catchment since 1946. Furthermore between 1956 and 1978 there were no major
floods of a comparable magnitude to those of June 1949 and August 1952. This increased
rainfall and lack of large floods should have been suitable for the regeneration of riparian
vegetation and the construction of banks and bars. That this was not the case suggests that
the floods between 1949 and 1955 were not just a highly improbable sequence of events but
part of a regional change in hydrologic regime comprising an increase in the magnitude and
frequency of all floods (see Pickup, 1976; Riley, 1981; Erskine and Bell, 1982). This possibility
is considered in the next section.
Large flood variability may mitigate against channel recovery because the inter-arrival time
River Metamorphosis 99

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970

YEAR

Fig. 6 Variations in annual rainfall at Howes Valley (Kindarun). Location shown in Figure 5 .

between catastrophic events is short enough to reverse the primacy of frequency over magitude
in geomorphic work (see Baker, 1977; Abrahams and Cull, 1979). One measure of flood
variability, the standard deviation of the log-transformed annual flood series, called the Flash
Flood Magnitude Index by Baker (1977), was calculated for a number of river gauging stations
in central, eastern New South Wales (Fig. 5). A distinct regional pattern was evident with coastal
rivers having low flood variability (<0.4). the lower Hawkesbury-Nepean rivers (including
the Macdonald River), moderate variability (between 0.4 and 0.6), and Wollombi Brook and
Goulburn River in the Hunter Valley, high variability (>0.6). High flood variability generally
correlates with low mean annual rainfall, a trend previously identified by Macdonald (1970).
Erskine (in preparation) has also shown that flood variability is identical for the periods before
and after 1946. The Macdonald River does nor experience large flood variability having a Flash
Flood Magnitude Index about half of that of the West Nueces River in central Texas (Baker,
1977). This factor then cannot be responsible for the lack of channel recovery after 1955.

111 ALTERED HYDROLOGIC REGIME

Secular Rainfall Change
There is only one long-term official rainfall station in the Macdonald catchment at Howes
Valley (Station number 061030) which has a continuous record for the 62 year period from
1914 to 1975. Fluctuations in annual rainfall over this period are shown in Figure 6. Smoothing
by a five-year moving average indicates that a substantial increase in rainfall has occurred since
the late 1940s (Fig. 6). Mass curves and residual mass curves support this conclusion (Erskine,
1978). Although Bell (1966a; 1966b) first identified this increase in rainfall he did not determine
if it was statistically significant. Page’s (1957) test was used to determine precisely the time
of the change on the assumptions that there has been a n increase in mean annual rainfall at
an unknown point in the time series and that the increase has persisted for a t least twenty
years (see Murtagh, 1980; Erskine and Bell, 1982). The increase in annual rainfall started in
100 Australian Geographical Studies

TABLE IV

CHANGES IN ANNUAL RAINFALL FOR SELECTED STATIONS IN AND NEAR

THE MACDONALD RIVER CATCHMENT
-
Mean Mean Increase Level of
Rainfail Station Year annual annual in mean Percentage signif-
station number of rainfalI rainfall annual increase icance‘
change’ (1895-1946) (1947- 1976) rainfail
mm mm mm
-
Gosford 061023 1949 1203.6 1418.6 215.0 17.9 0.0012
Wyee 061082 1949 1128.2 1263.5 135.3 12.0 0.016
Wwng 061083 1945 1070.4 1261.5 191.1 17.9 0.002
Cessnock
P.O. 061009 1948 673.3 842.5 169.2 25.1 o.Ooo1
Richmond 067021 1949 700.2 934.6 234.4 33.5 0.ooo1
Windsor 067031 1945 691.9 882.5 190.6 27.6 O.OOO1
Howes
Valley 061030 1947 649.9 858.7 208.8 32.1 O.Ooo1

1914- 1947-
1946 1975
-
Howes
Valley 061030 1947 631.6 857.3 225.7 35.7 o.Ooo1

Notes: 1 From Page’s (1957) test; 2 From Student’s t test. For location of rainfall stations see Figure 5.

1947 (see Table IV) and is consistent with the results of Cornish (1977) and Erskine and Bell
(1982). Since 1947 mean annual rainfall has increased by 225.7 mm or 35.7 per cent @<O.OOOl)
(see Table IV). Erskine (1978) has shown by double mass analysis that the rainfall record at
Howes Valley is homogenous, therefore the increase in annual rainfall since 1947 reflects a
secular rainfall change and not a change in the site, height or exposure of the gauge (see Mitchell
et al., 1966).
To determine more accurately the magnitude of the increase in annual rainfall over the
Macdonald Valley, seven long-term stations in and around the catchment were selected for
further analysis (Table IV). A common period of record, 1895-1976, was adopted and missing
years were estimated by correlation with at least one neighbouring station. Table IV shows
that all stations recorded an increase in rainfall in the period 1945-49. For comparison of the
rainfall increase between stations the sub-periods, 1895-1946 and 1947-1976, were chosen because
Erskine and Bell (1982) found that 1946 was the modal year of change in a study of a larger
data set in the contiguous Hunter Valley. The increase ranges from 135.3 to 234.4 mm or 12
to 33.5 per cent and is highly significant (0.OOOl <p<0.016). There is a distinct tapering off
of the change near the coast (see also Bell and Erskine, 1981; Erskine and Bell, 1982).
Changes in seasonal rainfall at Howes Valley were also examined. Cornish’s (1977) summer
and winter monthly groupings were used and a log-transformation was carried out to normalise
the data. Mean summer rainfall has increased by 110.3 mm (64.7 per cent) since 1947 @<0.001)
but winter rainfall has not significantly changed. It would therefore appear that the increase
in annual rainfall is due predominantly to a change in summer rainfall (see Cornish, 1977;
Pittock, 1981).
 River Metamorphosis 101

No daily rainfall data are available for Howes Valley prior to 1941 precluding an investigation
of changes in twenty-four hour duration rainfall intensities and frequencies. Erskine and Bell
(1982), however, found appreciable increases in forty-eight hour duration rainfall intensities
for return periods of less than two years since 1946 at a number of stations in the Hunter Valley.
Changes in flood frequency
It is impossible to determine directly the effect of the rainfall change since 1946 on flood
frequeny of the Macdonald River because stream gauging did not commence at St Albans until
September 1954. The regional extent of the secular rainfall change, however enables the use
of long-term gauging records for neighbouring rivers to illustrate the magnitude of the change
in hydrologic regime.
Page (1972) has previously undertaken an annual series flood frequency analysis of the flood
record for Wollombi Brook at Warkworth (Station number 210004; catchment area 1735 krn’).
He found that for the period, 1908-49, the most probable annual flood (return period of 1.58
years for a Gumbel distribution) was 45 m’s-’ whereas for the period, 1959-67, it was 79
m’s-’ or 1.75 times greater. This change was not interpreted as an upward shift of the flood
frequency curve but as an unreliable estimate of the mode of the distribution due to the small
sample size of the latter period. Page’s conclusion is further considered below.
An annual flood series at Warkworth for the period, 1908-79, was extracted from records
of the New South Wales Water Resources Commission; missing years were estimated by
correlation with neighbouring stations. Dalryrnple’s (1960) station method of flood frequency
analysis was used so that the results could be compared with those of Page (1972). Plotting
positions were calculated by the Gringorten (1963) instead of the Weibull formula because
the Gringorten formula gives an unbiased estimate of the return periods of both high and low
ranking floods for a Gumbel distribution (Cunnane, 1978). The annual flood series was split
at 1946 and separate curves were determined for each subperiod (Fig. 7). Table V shows
substantial increases in both the most probable annual flood and the mean annual flood (return
period of 2.33 years for a Gumbel distribution) since 1946. The increase is much greater than
that identified by Page (1972). Clearly, there has been a complete upward shift of the annual
series flood frequency curve since 1946 indicating a large increase in flood magnitude for a
given return period (Fig. 7). Furthermore, the largest flood recorded during the earlier period
was exceeded twice in the seven year period, 1949-55.
An upward shift of the annual series flood frequency curve since 1946 was also found for
the Colo River at Upper Colo (Station number 212290; catchment area 4350 km’). The increase
in the most probable and mean annual floods for the latter period are included in Table V
and are consistent with the results of Gutteridge Haskins and Davey (1980) who analysed a
shorter, incomplete annual flood series.
The above work was carried out on contiguous catchments to the north and west of the
Macdonald Valley (Fig. 5). Recently published work has also outlined the change in hydrologic
regime for other nearby catchments. Pickup (1976) and Riley (1981) identified an increase in
flood frequency for the Hawkesbury-Nepean River since the late 1940s at Wdacia and Windsor,
respectively. Erskine and Bell (1982) have also demonstrated that the annual flood series for
the periods before and after 1946 at Coggan (Goulburn River) and Singleton (Hunter River)
in the Hunter Valley belong to different populations. All of the above work supports the
conclusions that there have been correlative changes in annual rainfall and flood frequency
(Hall, 1927; Riley, 1980; Erskine and Bell, 1982) and that a significant change in hydrologic
regime has occurred in the Macdonald catchment since the late 1940s.
102 Australian Geographical Studies

RETURN PERIOD (pars)

Fig. 7 Annual series flood frequency curves of the periods before and after 1946 for Wollombi Brook
at Warkworth. For location of the gauging station see Figure 5.

TABLE V

’CHANGES IN THE MOST PROBABLE AND MEAN ANNUAL FLOODS FOR THE
PERIODS BEFORE AND AFTER 1946 AT WOLLOMBI BROOK AT WARKWORTH
AND COLO RIVER AT UPPER COLO

Most probable Mean annual

Gauging Period of annual good Percentage flood Percentage
station record rn’s-’ increase ds-’ increase

Warkworth 1908-1946 40 242.5 160 170.6

1947-1979 137 433
Upper Colo 1909- 1946 425 36.5 525 138.1
1947-1978 580 1250

Note: For location of gauging stations see Figure 5.

River Metamorphosis 103

Changes in sediment load

The channel-fill sediments in the Flemings Creek neck cutoff have been used to reconstruct
the nature of the sediment load of the Macdonald River before 1949. The weighted mean per
cent silt-clay in the perimeter (M) of the abandoned channel ranged between 4.5 and 9.9 per
cent (Table 11) indicating that prior to 1949 the Macdonald River was transitional between
a mixed load and a bed load channel (Schumm’s, 1968 classification). In 1978, the river was
a bed load channel with a mean M of 0.64 per cent and a range of 0.3 to 1.0 (12 samples).
Clearly, there has been a marked reduction in M demonstrating that the channel is now
transporting an increased proportion of the total sediment load as bed-material load. The
increase in width-depth ratio since 1949 (Table 11) also supports this conclusion.
Three samples from the channel sands in the abandoned channel (see Fig. 3) had median
particle sizes ranging between 2.20 and 2.45 4 (0.18 to 0.22 mm). The range in median particle
size of 1978 bed material samples was 1.40 to 2.00 4 (0.25 to 0.38 mm). It would therefore
appear that there has also been a coarsening of bed material since 1949.
The temporal coincidence between the initiation of the channel changes and the change in
hydrologic regime as well as the persistence of the channel changes for twenty-five years indicates
that the channel changes and altered hydrologic regime are causally related. Although the channel
changes were certainly induced by the large floods of 1949-55, continued river instability since
1955 suggests that special significance should not be placed solely on these floods. Recent
moderate events have also been effective in shaping the channel (Erskine and Melville, 1983;
1984) and belong to the same distribution. The channel changes appear to be a response to
an abrupt increase in the frequency of geomorphologically effective floods since 1949.

THE NATURE OF CHANNEL ADJUSTMENT

When a river is affected by a change of some magnitude in discharge and sediment supply
it becomes unstable as the channel adjusts its cross-sectional and planimetric form to the new
hydrologic regime. Channel adjustment is not instantaneous but has a lag time. The large flood
of June 1949 initiated the channel changes which were continued by slightly smaller events
between 1950 and 1955. The very short inter-arrival time between these events increased their
geomorphological effectiveness (Wolman and Gerson, 1978). Another factor conducive to rapid
channel response is the highly erodible nature of perimeter sediments, especially when devoid
of vegetation (see Erskine and Melville, 1983). Although the 1949-55 floods effected the channel
changes (Henry, 1977), the widened channel was maintained by the repeated occurrence of
moderate events after 1955. Recent channel changes indicate that the Macdonald River is still
unstable.
The upward shift of the annual series flood frequency curve since 1946 has resulted in
greater stream competence as shown by the increase in median particle size of the bed material.
A similar trend was found by Pickup (1976) in the Cumberland Basin. Partial destruction of
benches and erosion in tributaries supplied large quantities of sand to the main channel. To
transport this material, the channel increased its sediment-carrying capacity by becoming wider,
shallower and straighter. These adjustments maximised bed shear over bank shear thereby
increasing both bed-material load discharge and the proportion of the total sediment load
transported as bed-material load. Massive reworking of sediment held in temporary channel
storages since 1949 may account for Blong and Gillespie’s (1978) observations of charcoal,
radiocarbon dated at up to 1800 years BP, in the bed of the present channel.
Schumm (1969a) derived a number of qualitative relationships that predict changes in channel
104 Australian Geographical Studies

geometry resulting from altered environmental conditions in a catchment. Changes in channel

morphology caused by an increase in discharge and bed-material load are shown by the following
relationship:

Q + Qs+ =
W+ L+ F + s~ d~ (1)
P-
where Q is discharge, Qs bed-material load, W channel width, L meander wavelength, F width-
depth ratio, S slope, d depth and P sinuosity. Following Schumm, a plus or minus exponent
has been used to indicate the direction of change. This relationship shows that width, meander
wavelength and width-depth ratio should increase and sinuosity decrease with an increase in
discharge and bed-material load. As both width and width-depth ratio increase, depth will
remain constant or decrease. An increase in slope will probably occur because a reduction in
sinuosity straightens the channel.
The post-1949 channel changes of the Macdonald River conform to the above relationship.
Width and width-depth ratio have increased and sinuosity and depth, decreased. The slight
reduction in sinuosity probably resulted in a minor increase in slope. Meander wavelength has
not been considered because of the close bedrock confinement.
Wolman and Brush (1961) also observed both channel widening and bed aggradation in their
sand-bed and bank flume channels when discharge and the rate of bed-load transport were
increased. The correlation between aggradation and a decrease in sinuosity was noted by Hurault
(1972) in the Cameroons. Cross-sectional changes of the lower Macdonald River were of greater
significance than planform changes because the channel pattern is closely confined by a
meandering bedrock valley. This severely limits the sites where cutoffs and avulsions can occur.
The 1949-52 cutoffs eliminated the last vestiges of meandering on the Macdonald River.
CONCLUSIONS
A significant increase in summer and annual rainfall over the Macdonald catchment since
1946 resulted in increased flood frequency and greater stream competence and bed load
transport. This change in hydrologic regime caused a metamorphosis of channel form between
1949 and 1955. The channel widened, aggraded and straightened and in-channel benches were
partially destroyed. Although there have been no major channel changes after 1955 the channel
has remained unstable exhibiting frequent variations in bed elevation over a range of 0.25 rn
and periods of slight channel contraction and widening. Channel adjustment to the altered
hydrologic regime conforms to that predicted by Schumm (1969a) and other field and laboratory
studies.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The assistance of the foIlowing people with field work is gratefully acknowledged: J. Erskine,
C.C. Erskine, D.O. Erskine, G. Ash, D.S. Ash, P. Fanning, K. Smart and M.D. Melville.
F. Grace, J . Munns, C.J. Bailey, A. Smith, R. Lockwood and others allowed me access to
their properties. Professor J.A. Mabbutt, Drs F.C. Bell, M.D. Melville, A.J. Parsons and
Ms P. Fanning commented on various aspects of the work. For the loan of his survey book
and interest in the study, I thank Hugh Henry. Officers of the New South Wales Water Resources
Commission supplied gauging information and assisted with the preparation of the article.
The Geographical Society of New South Wales gave permission for the reproduction of Figure
3. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and are not necessarily those of
the New South Wales Water Resources Commission.
River Metamorphosis 105

REFERENCES
Abrahams, A.D. and Cull, R.F., 1979: The formation of alluvial landforms along New South Wales coastal
streams, Search 10, 187-8.
Anon., 183 I : Sketch showing thesituation of the small farms on the Macdonald River and Webbs Creek,
State Archives Office Map No. 3847.
Anon., 1954: The Upper Hunter Region. A preliminary survey of resources, Sydney, New South Wales
Government Printer.
Arthur, J . , 1855: Macdonald River, State Archives Office Map No. 3849.
Baker, V.R.. 1977: Stream-channel response to floods, with examples from central Texas, Geological Society
of America Bulletin 88, 1057-71.
Bell, F.C., 1966a: Improved techniques for estimating runoff with brief records, unpublished MSc thesis,
University of New South Wales.
Bell, F.C., 1966b: Improved techniques for estimating runoff with brief records, University of N.S. W.
Water Research Laboratory Report No. 91.
Bell, F.C., and Erskine, W.D., 1981: Effects of recent increases in rainfall on floods and runoff in the
upper Hunter Valley, Search 12, 82-3.
Benson, R., 1952: Preliminary Report on Flooak in ffunterRiver, Augzut 1952, Sydney, Water Conservation
and Irrigation Commission Hydrographic Branch Report.
Blong, R.J. and Gillespie, R., 1978: Fluvially transported charcoal gives erroneous C14 ages for recent
deposits, Nature 271, 739-41.
Burkham, D.E., 1981: Uncertainties resulting from changes in river form, Journal of the HydraulicsDivision,
Proceedings of the American Society of Civil Engineers 107, 593-610.
Committee of Advice on Flood Control and Mitigation, 1957: Interim Report No. 5. The Incidence and
Behaviour of the Record Flood and the Extent of Inundation of the Towns, Villages and Farm Lands
of the Hunter Valley-February 1955, Sydney, New South Wales Government Printer.
Cooke, R.U. and Reeves, R.W.. 1976: Arroyos and Environmental Change in the American South- West,
Oxford, Clarendon Press.
Cornish, P.M., 1977: Changes in seasonal and annual rainfall in New South Wales, Search 8., 38-40.
Cunnane, C., 1978: Unbiased plotting positions-a review, Journal of Hydrology 37, 205-22.
Dalgety, S.G., 1842: Plan of the ViIlageof St Albansshowing an encroachment by Matthew P. Thompson,
and also an error in the original plan, State Archives Office Map No. 1186.
Dalrymple, T., 1960: Flood frequency analysis, United States GeologicafSurvey Water Supply Paper 1543-A.
Dyson, J.R.. 1966: Sand deposits in the Macdonald and Colo Rivers, Journal of the Soil Conservation
Service of N.S. W. 22, 158-73.
Ellis, I., undated: A History of Baerami Creek Valley, Muswellbrook, Muswellbrook Chronicle Print.
Erskine, W.D., 1978: An examination of the causes of river channel changes in the Macdonald valley
since 1949, unpublished BA(Hons) thesis, University of New South Wales.
Erskine, W.D. and Bell, F.C., 1982: Rainfall floods and river channel changes in the upper Hunter,
Australian Geographical Studies 20, 183-96.
Erskine, W.D. and Melville, M.D., 1982: Australian Landform Example No. 41. Cutoff and oxbow lake
a) on a straight-simulating river, Australian Geographer 15, 174-7.
Erskine, W.D. and Melville, M.D., 1983: Impact of the 1978 floods on the channel and floodplain of
the lower Macdonald River, N.S.W., Australian Geographer 15, 284-92.
Erskine, W.D. and Melville, M.D., 1984: Sediment transport, supply and storage in sand-bed channels
of the northern Sydney Basin, N.S.W., Drainage Basin Erosion and Sedimentation, A Conference on
Erosion, Transportationand Sedimentation in Australian Drainane Basins, Newcastle..~ May 1984. 59-70.
Gringorten. 1.1.. 1963: A plotting rule for extreme probability paper, Journal of Geophysical Research
68, 813-4.
Gupta. A. and Fox, H., 1974: Effects of high-magnitude floods on channel form: a case study in Maryland
Piedmont, Water Resources Research 10, 499-509.
Gutteridge, Haskins and Davey, 1980: Colo River- Stream Clearing Environmental Impact Statement,
prepared for Colo Shire Council.
Hall, L.D., 1926: The physiography and geography of the Hawkesbury River between Windsor and
Wisemans Ferry, Proceedings of the Linnean Society of N.S. W. 51, 55-93.
Hall, L.D.. 1927: The physiographic and climatic factors controlling the flooding of the Hawkesbury River
at Windsor, Proceedings of the Linnean Society of N.S. W. 52, 133-52.
106 Australian Geographical Srudies

Helman, P.M., Jones, A.D., Pigram, J.J.J. and Smith, J.M.B., 1976: Wildernessin Australia-Eastern
New South Walesand Southeastern Queensland. Armidale, Department of Geography, University of
New England.
Henry, H.M., 1977: Catastrophic channel changes in the Macdonald valley, New South Wales, 1949-1955,
Journal and Proceedings of the Royal Society of N.S. W. 110, 1-16.
Hickin, E.J., 1983: River channel changes: retrospect and prospect, International Association of
Sedimentologists Special Publication 6, 61-83.
Hurault, M.J., 1972: Relation centre le charge des course d'eau et le faconnement de leur lit, dans le systeme
hydrographique del Adamawa (Cameroun), Comptes Rendus Acadamie de Science Paris 275 series 11,
2627 - 30.
Hutton Neve, M., 1978: The Forgotten Valley. History of theMacdonald Vatleyand St. Atbans, N.S. W.,
Sydney, Library of Australian History.
Lamy, D.L. and Junor, R.S., 1965a: An erosion survey in the Ku-ring-gai Chase and adjoining catchment,
Part I, Journal of the Soil Conservation Service of N.S. W. 21, 94-1 10.
Lamy, D.L. and Junor. R.S., 1965b: An erosion survey in the Ku-ring-gai Chase and adjoining catchment,
Part 11, Journal of the Soil Conservation Service of N.S. W. 21, 159-74.
Lewin, J. and Brindle, B.J., 1977: Confined meanders, in K.J. Gregory (ed.), River Channel Changer,
Chichester, John Wiley, 221-33.
Macdonald, D.E., 1970: Flood frequency analysis in eastern Australia: A Hydrologic study of the flood
characteristics of selected rivers in eastern Australia, unpublished MSc thesis, University of Sydney.
Meehan, J., 1829: Plan of part of the Macdonald River with locations and settlers names, State Archivrs
Office Map No. 3017.
Mitchell, J.M., Jr, Dzerdzeevskii, B.. Flohn, H., Hofmeyr, W.L., Lamb, H.H., Rao, K.N. and Waller,
C.C., 1966: Climatic Change, World Meteorological Organisation Technical Note No. 79.
Murtagh, G.J., 1980: The conservative effect of rainfall variation on fertiliser response in a humid
environment, Search 11, 35-6.
Northcote, K.H.. 1974: A Factual Key for the Recognition of Australian Soils Adelaide, Rellim.
Page, E.S.,19S7: On problems in which a change in a parameter occurs at an unknown point, Biometrih
44, 248-52.
Page, K.J.. 1972: A field study of the bankfull discharge concept in the Wollombi Brook draining basin,
New South Wales, unpublished MA (Hons) thesis, University of Sydney.
Pickup, G., 1976: Geomorphic effects of changes in river runoff, Cumberland Basin, N.S.W., Australian
Geographer 13, 188-93.
Pittock, A.B., 1975: Climatic change and the patterns of variation in Australian rainfall, Search 6.498-504.
Pittock. A.B., 1981: Long term climatic trends in eastern Australian, in D.R. de Kanuow and B.G. Sutton
(eds), Cropping at the margin: potentialfor overuse of semi-arid lands, Australian Institute of Agricultural
Science and Water Research Foundation of Australia, 23-29.
Rango, A., 1970: Possible effects of precipitation modification on stream channel geometry and sediment
yield, Water Resources Research 6, 1765-70.
Rankine and Hill, Consulting Engineers, 1963: Report on Flooding and Flood Ploin Zoning within the
Colo Shire, North Sydney, Rankine and Hill.
Riley, S.J., 1980 Aspects of the flood record at Windsor, Proceedings o f t h e 16th Conference ofthr.
Institute of Australian Geographers, Newcastle. 325-40.
Riley, S.J.,. 1981: The relative influence of dams and secular climatic change on downstream flooding,
Australia, Water Resources Bulletin 17, 361-6.
Scholer, H.A., 1974: Geomorphology of New South Wales coastal rivers, University of N.S. W. Water
Research Laboratory Report No. 139.
Schumm, S.A., 1960: The effect of sediment type on the shape and stratification of some modern fluvial
deposits, American Journal of Science 258, 177-84.
Schumm, S.A., 1968: River adjustment to altered hydrologic regimen-Murrumbidgee River and
palaeochannels, Australia, United Sfates Geological Survey Professional Paper S98.
Schumm, S.A., 1969a: River metamorphosis, Journal of the Hydraulics Division. Proceedings of the
American Society of Civil Engineers 95, 255-73.
Schumm, S.A., 1969b: Ceomorphic implications of climatic changes, in R.J. Chorley (ed.), Introduction
to Fluvial Processes, London, Methuen. 202-13.
Schumm, S.A.and Uchty, R.W., 1%3: Channel widening and floodplain construction along Cimarron
River in South-westem Kansas, United States Geological Survey Professional Paper 352-D.
River Metamorphosis 107

Schumm, S.A. and Lichty, R.W., 1965: Time space and causality in geomorphology, American Journal
of Science, 263, 110-19.
Shoue, P., 1848: Survey of the Wallambine Common situated on the Macdonald River, County of
Northumberland, State Archives Office Map No. 6024.
Shoue, P., 1849: Survey of the Wallambine Common situated near the Macdonald River Country of
Northumberland 1849, State Archives Office Map No. 6023.
Stevens, M.A., Simons, D.B. and Richardson, E.V., 1975: Non-equilibrium river form, Journal of the
Hydraulics Division, Proceedings of rhe American Society of Civil Engineers 101, 557-66.
Warner, R.F., 1983: Channel changes in the sandstone and shale reaches of the Nepean River, New South
Wales, in R.W. Young and G.C. Nanson (eds), Aspects ofAustralian SandstoneLandscapes, Australian-
New Zealand Geomorphology Group Special Publication No. 1, 106-19.
Warner, R.F., McLean, E.J. and Pickup, G . , 1977: Changes in an urban water resource: an example
from Sydney, Australia, Earth Surface Processes 2, 29-38.
Wolman, M.G. and Brush, L.M., Jr., 1961: Factors controlling the size and shape of stream channels
in coarse noncohesive sediments, United States Geological Survey Professional Paper 282-G.
Wolman, M.G. and Gerson, R., 1978: Relative scales of time and effectiveness of climate in watershed
geomorphology, Earth Surface Processes 3, 189-208.
Young, R.W., 1976: Infilling o f the lake, in Illawarra Lake, Wollongong City Council and the University
of Wollongong, 10-19.