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Evaluation of grade estimation techniques

T. M. B E L L a & M. K. G. W H A T E L E Y 2
1C.L.M. Ltd (a member of the C.P. Holdings group of companies Ltd.) Nottingham Road,
Giltbrook, Nottingham, UK
2Geology Department, University of Leicester, Leicester LE1 7RH, UK

Abstract: A sample set was simulated from an exhaustive data set of silver values
derived from blast holes of the 5220 bench. The sample set was used to estimate the
ditribution of grade for the 5220 bench using a variety of estimating techniques. The
estimating processes were controlled by the knowledge of the statistical and spatial
distribution of the exhaustive data set. This approach was used to test the accuracy
and precision of the different estimation techniques. The results from the simpler
estimation methods (linear interpolation and triangulation) compared most closely to
the blast hole samples. The more complex techniques (inverse distance and kriging),
using weighting factors, were found to exaggerate the variance and smooth the inter-
quartile range.

The dilemma that any mining geologist or
engineer faces is 'How do I estimate a mean
value that accurately reflects the quality of
material that I am trying to estimate? What
fluctuations about the mean value can I expect
within a given environment?' There are many
estimation techniques available but which one
will work? Two aspects to grade estimation
include the calculation of a global estimate for
determining the total quantity of material and
calculating local estimates to aid mine planning
and scheduling. Local estimation will require
more detail and is often a precursor to
calculating a global estimate. Calculating a
local estimate requires the spatial nature of the
data values to be correctly defined, and in a
mining environment is dependent upon geologi-
cal control. Given that the spatial distribution is
intrinsically linked to the statistical distribution,
statistical inferences can be used to control
processes of grade estimation. The data derived
from an estimation process should always
honour and reflect the statistical variation and
spatial distribution of the sample data set.
Techniques that characteristically smooth the
data may provide a good global estimate but
deliver invalid results as regard spatial distribu-
tion and local estimation. Mining ore as waste
and vice-versa is always to be avoided. It is,
therefore, the aim of this paper to evaluate the
accuracy and precision of methods of grade
estimation in a typical mining environment of
high variability of grade. It is always important
to have a thorough statistical, spatial and
geological understanding of the sample data set
prior to deciding which estimation technique is
to be used.
A slice has been taken through an ore body
and an exhaustive sample set precisely defines
the characteristics of that slice. From knowing
the actual statistical and spatial distribution of
assay values we attempt to redefine the slice
from a sub set of the data using this prior
knowledge. It is therefore possible to test the
effectiveness of different estimating techniques
and also illustrate how a sub set of samples can
impoverish the results. Typically, attempting to
create detail from limited information is always
dependent upon sample pattern and size. In an
environment of high variance with high value
outliers, where spatial structure of the distribu-
tion of values is highly organized, estimation
processes need to adopt a localized approach.
The sample data set is from the Trinity Silver
Mine situated within Pershing County, N W
Nevada (Fig. 1), located on the NW flanks of
the Trinity Range, 25km N N W of Lovelock.
The mine was an open pit, heap leach silver
mining operation extracting rhyolite hosted,
disseminated, hydrothermal, silver oxide miner-
alization. The geology and mineralization is
described by Johnson (1977), Ashleman (1988)
and Bell (1989). The exhaustive data set used for
this evaluation was taken from a single bench of
the open pit. The 5220 level data set contained
1386 blast hole samples (Fig. 2). No spatial bias
or clustering effects are evident as the sampling
pattern was at regular 4.5m centres. The
location of 51 boreholes, from the exploratory
drilling programme, that intercepted the 5220

From Whateley, M. K. G. & Harvey, P. K. (eds), 1994, MineralResource Evaluation IL" 67

Methods and Case Histories, Geological Society Special Publication No. 79, 67-86.
Downloaded from https://www.lyellcollection.org by Universidad Catolica Boliviana, Cochabamba on Jun 17, 2023

68 T . M . BELL & M. K. G. WHATELEY

Black Rock
Desert
[

"i! x/x/," -- _

T30N STUDY ,~, + ~::::I i

i___~e 'i:ilili#ii!i,:::: /
~-'_ty-7"wi,ow /

2
T25N i

RJOE R40E
~ Tertiary sediments ~ Triassic sediments ~ Permian sediments ~--~1 Cambrian sediments
I I Recent & volcanics (ALSG)
Quaternary ~ Jurassic p'~ CretaceousGranodiorite ~ Ordovician sediments f Thrusts

Fig. 1. Map of Nevada showing the location of the Trinity Silver Mine, Pershing County.

10200N l

10000N

9800N

^.k.;.~.. , ~,, ,-~ ~ b . . . . . . i . . . . . . . . 'I. . . . . . . . . i. . . . . .~ m"/y/" / ,/ // y

9400N M00E "<"~?~S ,18~S ~9000E . ,I 9200E [

Fig. 2. Outline of the worked open pit and pattern of blast hole samples for the 5220 bench.
Downloaded from https://www.lyellcollection.org by Universidad Catolica Boliviana, Cochabamba on Jun 17, 2023
EVALUATION OF GRADE ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES
level were used for simulation. Table 1 outlines
the set procedures followed for the purpose of
this evaluation. This evaluation is based upon a
single case study and therefore reflects the
characteristics of this specific deposit. The
conclusions may be of assistance in evaluating
other deposits.
Table 1. Proceduresadoptedfor evaluating methods of
grade estimation
Global statistics
Descriptive
Histogram
Probability plots
Population analysis
Derived from global statistics
Descriptive statistics
Spatial distribution
Block model
Contour maps
Indicator maps
Moving windows
Semi-variograms
Link populations to spatial context
Borehole simulation
Triangulated model
Linear interpolation of grades
Grade estimation
Triangles
Linear interpolation
Inverse distance
Ordinary kriging
Estimation of errors
Error maps
Mean squared error
Ore envelopes and spatial integrity
Statistical assessment of the exhaustive
data set
The purpose of a statistical assessment of the
data set is to derive assumptions about the
accuracy and precision of subsequent grade
estimates. This requires an understanding of
the spread and character of the data. The
univariate statistics, histogram and probability
plot provide us with insight into the character of
the statistical distribution of data values. The
mean is of limited use if expected fluctuations in
data values about the mean cannot be predicted
within a given environment. The confidence of
the global or local mean, as described by the
variance, provides a measure of repeatability in
time and space. The calculation of a mean and
its confidence limits is frustrated by the implica-
tion that variables from a geological environ-
ment commonly consist of many quite small
values and a few large ones. Deviations from
69
symmetrical distributions and the linearity of a
normal or log normal probability plot confound
the modelling process and question the assump-
tions of applying a specific type of distribution
to the data (Isaaks & Srivastava 1989). Changes
in the characteristics of the cumulative frequen-
cies of a data set over different intervals need
always to be explored and checked against the
possibility of multiple populations. It is evident
from statistical information (Table 2, Fig. 3) that
the silver values (oz t-1) for the 5220 level neither
c o n f o r m to a Gaussian nor Log N o r m a l
distribution. If such distributions were modelled
over or under estimation, respectively, is likely
to occur.
The important features of the distribution are
captured by the univariate statistics (Table 2)
and illustrate immediately the problem of grade
estimation for the 5220 bench. T h a t is a
pronounced peak below the mean and a large
spread of data toward extreme high values (Fig.
3). The summary statistics provide measures of
location, spread and shape. The mean A~
content of the bench is recorded as 1.4oz t-,
which is an accurate estimate for regular spaced
data for the calculation of the total silver
quantity of the bench. However, other estimates
of central tendency that are more resistant to
outliers (median, trimean, biweight etc.) invoke
caution with respect to the precision of the mean
(Fig. 4). The high variance describes the high
variability of the data set and explains the poor
precision of the mean as a local or point
estimate. A strong positive skew with a long
tail of high values to the right is evident from the
high positive skewness ( + 4.37). The degree of
asymmetry is also supported by the coefficient of
variance (2.06).
The frequency histogram and probability plot
(Fig. 3) illustrate how the data are proportioned.
It is important to note that even though the data
values range from 0 to 32.8 oz f l Ag, only 23%
are > 1.3, 7.4% are > 5 and 2.7% are > 10 oz t-1.
The upper quartile indicates that 75% of the
entire data set lie between 0 and 1.14 oz t-lAg,
and the mean which is higher does not then
reflect the majority of the data resulting in local
or point overestimation. It is obvious therefore
that the positive skew has a disproportionate
influence upon grade estimation. Such a conclu-
sion can be derived if the coefficient of variance
exceeds 2 and therefore any local estimate within
the confines of the 5220 bench could generate a
mean that is considerably different from the
global mean.
A skewed distribution of this nature with high
value outliers needs to be evaluated for potential
modality and departures from a continuous
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70 T.M. BELL & M. K. G. WHATELEY

Table 2. Statistics calculatedfor the 5220 bench, including total and sub-populations

Total Ore 0-0.4 0.4-0.8 0.8-1.3 1.3-5 5-10 > 10

> 1.3 oz ffl oz t-1 oz t-1 oz t-1 oz t-1 oz t-1 oz t-1

No. 1386 323 730 217 116 221 65 37

Min. 0 1.303 0 0.401 0.802 1.303 5.133 10.115
Max. 32.8 32.8 0.398 0.797 1.292 4/997 9.906 32.8
25th% 0.169 1.913 0.1 0.4475 0.895 1.617 5.8028 11.1287
75th% 1.141 5.9505 0.257 0.6438 1.11 3.2543 7.9138 17.3173
Mean 1.402 4.8679 0.1823 0.5502 1.0202 2.5414 7.0679 14.8994
Median 0.357 3.167 0.1795 0.53 1.0345 2.326 6.702 13.357
Biweight 0.4464 3.6173 0.1798 0.5455 1.0193 2.4674 6.9665 14.0346
Trirnean 0.506 3.5745 0.179 0.5383 1.0197 2.3845 6.783 13.8265
Sichel t 1.3291 4.7268 0.2027 0.5501 1.0205 2.5392 7.0659 14.8483
Variance 8.3798 20.0419 0.01 0.0126 0.0189 1.0266 2.0817 23.898
Std dev. 2.8948 4.4768 0.0999 0.1125 0.1374 1.0132 1.4428 4.8886
MAD 0.323 1.8193 0.0798 0.0985 0.115 0.8294 1.1585 3.0156
Skewness 4.3656 2.3424 0.2284 0.4601 0.1095 0.7067 0.4979 1.6538
Kurtosis 28.4261 10.1776 2.1985 1.9570 1.9726 2.4729 2.2040 6.1592
Coef. var. 2.0647 0.9197 0.5478 0.2044 0.1347 0.3987 0.2041 0.3281

distribution. Detailed exposure of the histogram
and probability plot can highlight transitions
from one distribution to another. A marked
change in frequency from one class to another,
or deviations of the cumulative frequency
polygon from a straight line provides the
necessary statistical support for population
splitting. Often positively skewed data reflect
the mixing of sub-populations or grade classes.
Any such conclusion and attempt to model
Gaussian distributions by population splitting
requires statistical, spatial and geological sup-
port. Processes of overprinting, enrichment and
depletion can provide geological support for the
existence of sub-populations. The samples from
the 5220 bench were split into five grade
categories. Statistical support is evident for
breaks in the distribution at 0.4, 0.8 and 1.3 oz
t-l; however, arbitrary breaks at 5 and 10 oz t 1
were chosen to split the tail of the positive skew
and would require spatial or geological support.
The statistics (Table 2) and measures of central
tendency (Fig. 4) suggest that Gaussian distribu-
tions were approximated. The variance and
skewness decreased for each class, compared to
the global statistics, restricting expected fluctua-
tions which should result in more reliable grade
estimates. The value of such an exercise comes if
the s u b - p o p u l a t i o n s prove to be spatially
coherent.
Spatial description of the exhaustive data set
A coded block model and contours of silver
grade of the 5220 bench (Fig. 5a & b) illustrates
clear structure to the data. N o random spread is
evident and grade classes define specific struc-
tures. The bulk of the mineralized zone to the
east forms an elongated linear structure with
grade envelopes or shells surrounding high grade
cores. Each shell describes a specific transition
from one grade class to another. Alternatively
discrete ore lobes or zones can be defined to the
west and contain values specific to a single grade
class. Sub-populations can be located within
specific lobes or envelopes the boundaries of
which are clearly defined and represent areas
of high local variance. A 3D profile (Fig. 6)
through the mineralized zones illustrates the
transition from rapidly changing grade values to
areas of stable grade. Peaks in the grade profile
(Fig. 6) or sharp changes in grade are the prime
factor in causing poor grade estimates and
provide a case for spatially separating data for
the purpose of calculating grade estimates.
The indicator maps (Fig. 7) support the
structural integrity of the sub-populations
illustrating the localized clustering of specific
grade values. The 1.3 oz t 1 threshold defines the
NE trend of the data whilst the 5 and 10 oz t-1
thresholds represent clusters of high values that
are continuous over shorter distances. There is a
degree of scatter to the low values less than
0.4 oz f l . The semi-variogram parameters (Fig.
9) quantitatively verify these observations. Such
clusters can be separated and evaluated as single
classes and grade estimates calculated for given
zones. Such a method would reduce the overall
variance within each zone and provide a more
reliable set of local grade estimates for the
Downloaded from https://www.lyellcollection.org by Universidad Catolica Boliviana, Cochabamba on Jun 17, 2023

EVALUATION OF GRADE ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES

400

350-

300-

250-

t-

200-
0"
L_
LL
150-

100-

50-

tlfll~ HII,~, H HIl,I, H ll~]lJll,l,I J~III~IH,t,WHIW~ H rtlll,l,I HrI,H H HIH Jlll~l,,IJl Hill H H
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19
(a) Silver ( o z / t )

18-

16-

14-

~'~ 12-

" J 10-

>
8-

0 i i
o.o 0'.2 ' 0'4 ' 0'.6 018 1.0
0,1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9
(b) Cumulofive P r o b o b i l i l y

Fig. 3. Histogram (a) and normal probability plot (b) of the blast hole silver grades.

purpose of mine planning. the change in variability reflects the change in

By applying moving window statistics and the mean. The strong relationship between the
calculating the mean and variance for a given mean and variability is referred to as the
overlapping window (30 m 2) areas of high local proportional effect which implies that the
variance can be defined. The contours (Fig. 8) variability is predictable. Where that relation-
show that the average silver values and varia- ship is destroyed confidence in the mean is
bility change locally across the area. In general reduced. Contours of standard deviation high-
Downloaded from https://www.lyellcollection.org by Universidad Catolica Boliviana, Cochabamba on Jun 17, 2023
72 T.M. BELL & M. K. G. WHATELEY
/
16-
/1
/1
14-
12-
/1
/1
._..10- :
c. /
/
4-
/
2-
/
0
>10 1.3 - 5
5 - 10
Fig. 4. Measures of central tendency calculated for the exhaustive data set and specified grade classes in
light the areas of high variance and poor
precision of the mean, which tend to coincide
with the transition zones from one grade class to
another or the mixing of two populations.
Profiles of the window statistics (Fig. 8)
illustrate that where the standard deviation
exceeds the mean the grade estimate at that
point would be an overestimate due to the
influence of unrelated higher values. This
provides a case for ensuring that samples from
one zone are not used to estimate values within
another zone.
The semi-variogram is a tool which can
quantify the spatial continuity of the data
(Whateley 1992). The indicator maps and
window statistics show that there is a restricted
distance over which samples are comparable,
and that values from one zone/population can
not be used to calculate grade estimates in other
zones/populations. From omni-directional and
directional semi-variograms (Fig. 9) distances of
spatial continuity can be defined and an ellipse
of anisotropy constructed. The anisotropy can
be used to constrain the processes of grade
estimation. The semi-variograms show that the
east-west range reflects the discrete ore lobes
(semi-major axis 130 m), the northeast range is
the orientation of the main linear ore shells
(major axis 330 m) and the northwest range the
sharp boundaries to the ore shells (minor axis
80 m). Two ellipses of anisotropy can be defined
and reflect the two distinct structural zones
within the ore body.
q]ean
Jan
0.4 - 0 . 8 O r e ( > 1.3)
0 . 8 - 1.3 0 - 0.4 Total
Grade Classes
o z t -1.
Borehole simulation
Using different estimating techniques a series of
re-defined block models were calculated from a
sub-set of the original blast hole data. The sub-
set represents 51 boreholes that intercepted the
5220 bench (Fig. 10). Assay values were
simulated by simple linear interpolation from a
computer generated triangulated model of the
original blast hole samples. From the statistical
and spatial assessment of the blast hole samples
the following points were considered during the
iterative process of grade estimation. The data
are highly skewed resulting in a bias toward high
values by the mean. The data contain sub-
populations that are statistically and spatially
supported, exhibiting well defined trends and
discrete grade zones. The spatial structure is
quantifiable and the anisotropy used to restrain
the search distance during estimation. Without
considering the influence of outliers, spatial
continuity of the data and statistical breaks in
the distribution most estimating techniques are
likely to result in severe local overestimation.
The statistics of the simulated bore hole assays
reasonably mirror the statistical distribution of
the exhaustive data set (blast hole samples). The
skewness (2.38) and coefficient of variance (1.74)
are not as pronounced, and the mean is higher
(2.29 oz t-~). The drilling results reflect the high
variability of data (variance = 15.9) and illustrate
the potential problem of local overestimation
and confidence in the mean. The sample data set
Downloaded from https://www.lyellcollection.org by Universidad Catolica Boliviana, Cochabamba on Jun 17, 2023

E V A L U A T I O N OF G R A D E E S T I M A T I O N T E C H N I Q U E S 73

Ag oz/t

o,o - 0,4
[ ] 0.4 0,8
[] o.8 1.5
[] 1.3 - 5.o
[] 5.0 lO,O
(a) • .....

o,
~i
g~ g ol
~i
g i
~!--4

L. ~ ?, ',",l ~'~' ;L~. -,

. .~ t ) .~ ...........
-..... ~'~.......-_~+/ ....

:y!7 4
i.oooo ~~:~ ~ , : : , .::: : ,,,:~.
. . . . .--. ~ .... 1'4oooot

(b) I ei e
Fig. & The spatial distribution of silver grades on the 5220 bench; (a) block model coded according to grade
classes; (b) contours of silver grade at 0.5 ozt -~ contour interval.

shows no spatial clustering and conforms to a
fairly regular pattern (Fig. 10), although a high
proportion of drill holes are located within the
eastern ore zone.
Is it possible from a sample set that is biased
toward high values to generate a simulated block
model that reflects the original blast hole
samples without spatially or statistically split-
ting the sample set? To test this concept four
different processes of grade estimation were used
to create assay block models for the 5220 bench,
namely inverse distance, kriging, linear inter-
polation and triangulation. Each method was
restrained by search distances. The effect of
isotropy, extracted from the semi-variograms of
the blast hole samples, was applied only to the
inverse distance method. The power of the
inverse distance method was also varied but
found to have negligible effect and is therefore
not included.
Grade estimation and statistical comparison
The sample set is considered to be statistically
representative of the exhaustive data, although it
is a small sample size (4% of the total). It is
unlikely that the sample set will model the
spatial variation in values accurately, especially
given the sharp boundaries that exist between
grade zones. How accurate will estimated
block models be in providing a true picture
of the grade distribution on the 5220 bench?
To evaluate the results (Tables 3 & 4) of the
different grade estimation strategies four criteria
were compared and assessed for replications.
Downloaded from https://www.lyellcollection.org by Universidad Catolica Boliviana, Cochabamba on Jun 17, 2023
74 T. M. BELL & M. K. G. WHATELEY
Fig. 6. Three-dimensional model of the blast hole silver grades showing the location of pronounced peaks in the
distribution of grade values.
(1) the global arithmetic mean;
(2) statistical distribution based on the var-
iance and skew;
(3) spatial distribution of values;
(4) definition of the ore zone ( > 1.3 oz t-l).
The arithmetic mean used as a global estimate
of silver grade for the 5220 bench in every case is
overestimated (Fig. l la) with the results of
linear interpolation and triangles less pro-
nounced. However, the kriged and inverse
distance means compare favourably with the
mean of the drilling results. The statistical
distributions measured by the variance and
skewness vary considerably. A positive skew is
always maintained and the variance fluctuates
above and below the true variance. Inverse
distance with a search distance based on the
semi-major axis (120 m) of anisotropy appears to
mirror the variability of the blast hole samples.
Increasing the search distance to the maximum
axis clearly destroys the statistical distribution, a
function of excess smoothing and comparing
unlike values. All the estimating techniques have
t r a n s f o r m e d the distribution to the right,
introducing a greater bias toward higher grade
values indicated by a shift in the median value by
a factor of two. This is again less pronounced for
the linear interpolation and triangles method.
This would imply that the later two methods
have reduced the influence of high grade outliers
producing a more restricted distribution.
The spatial distribution of grade values (Fig.
12) provides further evidence that the different
estimating techniques have enhanced the inter
quartile range of values i.e. between 0.8oz t-1
and 5oz t 1. The structure of the data is
destroyed by inverse distance (Fig. 12 a--c) and
kriging (Fig. 12d); the discrete ore zones are lost
and the high grade cores are exaggerated. This
is most pronounced with the kriged model and
increasing the search distance (Fig. 12c) to the
maximum (330m) obliterates the high grade
cores causing a broad spread of values between
1.3 oz t 1 and 5 oz t-1. Both linear interpolation
(Fig. 12e) and triangulation (Fig. 120 maintain
the grade shells, high grade cores and discrete
grade zones, although the sharp boundary
between the 0.8 oz t -1 and 1.3 oz t " grade class
is lost. Overall the different estimating techni-
ques tend to be biased toward different grade
classes. All the methods maintain the N E
trending elongated linear nature of the grade
zoning illustrating the influence of the ellipse of
anisotropy, but to the extent that the discrete ore
zones to the west are lost. The geometry of the
ore grade envelope ( > 1.3 oz t -1) appears to be
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EVALUATION OF GRADE ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES 75

(a) ,)

(c)
(d)

,,llllllllllllllllll

,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

i
, , I : I I I I I I I ~ ' ~ Illill[lll[ll

,~llllllll:lllllllllllllllllll[lllllllllllllllllllllllll'
!!iiiiii!~iiiiiiii H ::'
:[iii[iiii]!!!iiiiii[i[[ii]iiiiiiiiiiiii!!l!l!][!I'
'IIIIIIIII ...................................
~iH~Lii[iii!![!!iii[[iiiiiiii[iiiiil!"
(e)
,~lllliiiii~iiiiiii2~'iiiiilllliiiiill
~,~:~
~'
Fig. 7. Indicator maps of Agoz t-~ at specifiedgrade boundaries; 0;) 0.4, (b) 0.8, (c) 1.3, (d) 5.0, (e) I0.0.

reasonably maintained although the percentage indicates that the extremes of the distribution
of blocks defined as ore has increased, mainly have been curtailed, thus the high grade cores
within the main eastern ore body. A high although maintained are less pronounced.
proportion of waste blocks will be flagged as
ore and to the west most of the ore would be E s t i m a t i o n o f error
mined as waste. Both linear interpolation and
triangles provide the best results in terms of ore The degree of error associated with each
waste definition. estimation strategy can be calculated by direct
The actual mean grade of the ore zone (Fig. comparison of each estimated block with the
l lb) is significantly overestimated by kriging actual mined block. Absolute errors can be
and inverse distance, and underestimated when calculated to give a + Ag difference. By calcu-
the search distance is increased. Triangles lating the square of the actual error the relative
provide the most accurate estimate (4.62 oz t-1) deviation from the actual can be ascertained.
compared with the actual (4.87oz t-l). The The measures of central tendency (Table 5) for
positive skew of all the models is significantly all estimations (mean and median) imply that the
reduced as high grade outliers become less majority of estimated blocks are only slightly
significant. Kriging and inverse distance pro- overestimated. The negative skew on the other
duce high variances similar to the blast hole hand implies a degree of underestimation
samples, and all methods except triangles particularly for the linear interpolated and
exaggerate the upper range of grade values triangulated models. The true picture is best
indicated by the higher median and upper illustrated by the histogram (Fig. 13) and
quartile. The low variance of the triangle model variance of absolute errors. The high variance
Downloaded from https://www.lyellcollection.org by Universidad Catolica Boliviana, Cochabamba on Jun 17, 2023

76 T. M. BELL & M. K. G. W H A T E L E Y

,10 ~
16 I
~ABOVE 8.0
e.o -8.0
4.0 -6.0
3.0 ---4.0
2.0 -3.0
i~l 1.0 -2.0
0.8 -1.o
:: 0.6 -0.8
0.4 -0,6
0.2 -0.4
BELOW 0,2
(a) 0 250 500 750 1000

,10 ~

~ABOVE 8.0
6.0 -8.0
4.0 -6.0
3.0 -4.0
2,0 -3.0
1.0 -2.0
:,~,~::, 0.8 - 1,0
'h .-::-:=:-: 0.6 -0.8
0.4 -0.6
0.2 -0,4
BELOW 0.2
(b) 0 250 500 750 1000

Mean Ag oz/t !
.................. A

StandardDevi=ion i,

4
i
]
I 'i
]

"\
/ \
o
/ \
f ~

/ ...........
x
t
/
'i

/ ......... \ Z

I I
00 2;0 ' 3001 ' 4 ; 0 ' 5 ; 0 . 600
. . . .700 8 ; 0 ' 9 ; 0 ' 10'00 1100
150 250 350 450 550 650 750 850 950 1050 1150
(c) Distance(m)
Downloaded from https://www.lyellcollection.org by Universidad Catolica Boliviana, Cochabamba on Jun 17, 2023
EVALUATION OF GRADE ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES
Mean Ag oz/t
Standard Deviation
O 4-
100 200 300 400 500
150 250 350 450
(d)
Fig. 8. Window statistics based on transformed grid oriented east-west with 30 m overlapping moving window.
(a) Contours of mean Ag oz t-1, (b) contours of standard deviation, (c) and (d) profiles 1 and 2 respectively of the
window mean and standard deviation showing the proportional effect and highlighting areas of expected high
error.
of the kriged and inverse distance models and
the high proportion of extreme errors illustrate
that both techniques result in a proportion of
blocks with high magnitudes of error, compared
with models derived from linear interpolation
and triangles. The error maps (Fig. 14) provide
further support with inverse distance (Fig. 14a-
c) and kriging (Fig. 14d) creating almost equal
proportions of over and underestimated blocks,
causing a balancing of errors, but the magnitude
of overestimation being greater. Increasing the
search distance (Fig. 14 b-c) creates more over-
estimation whilst the linear interpolated (Fig.
14e) and triangulated (Fig. 14f) models over-
estimate low values and underestimate high
values but the magnitude is small. The statistics
of the squared errors and the error fluctuation
graphs support the above premise (Fig. 15).
Conclusions
A sample from a given population, provided
that it is not biased, will generally reflect the
statistical nature of the population. Estimates
derived from a sample data set should always
maintain the statistical characteristics of that set
77
/
~ //"
600 700 800 900 1000 1100
550 650 750 850 950 1050 1150
Distance
of samples. The calculation of a point or block
model from a sub set of the blast hole samples
(e.g. drilling results) will always result in a
certain degree of overestimation because of the
high variability and strong positive skew to the
original data. Methods that reduce the magni-
tude of error tend to be those that are simple
(linear interpolation and triangles). Such meth-
ods were found to reduce the variance only to
the extent of minimizing the influence of high
grade outliers, which was acceptable. The more
complex techniques (kriging and inverse dis-
tance) exaggerated the variance by inappropri-
ately weighting extreme values but at the same
time smoothing the inter quartile range of the
data. Global estimates are best achieved from
methods (linear interpolation and triangles) that
gave equal or reduced weighting to high grade
outliers and honoured the spatial distribution of
the data points. Correct local grade estimates are
clearly dependent upon variability and spatial
distribution, quantitatively captured by the
anisotropy of assay values. Anisotropy applied
to estimating is essential in maintaining statis-
tical and spatial structures. Local estimates for
mine planning and scheduling can be drastically
Downloaded from https://www.lyellcollection.org by Universidad Catolica Boliviana, Cochabamba on Jun 17, 2023

T. M. B E L L & M . K. G. W H A T E L E Y
Gamma (h)
13-
/

11-

10- CO = .5C = 12.0A=lI0.0

3
/ +
-¢-
+
+

1
+
0 + + + ,

(a) lbo 2oo 300 4oo 5bo

Distance

Gamma (h)
13-
f _~
j +
q-
12-
+ CO = 1.3C= 11.8A=310.0
11-

/ +
+
+
+
+
+

//
8

(b) 0
0 1~)0 2'00 3~)0 4~0 5~)0 6'00
Distance

Gamma(h)
11-

//f+

+
CO = 1.0C= 8.1A=130.0
+

+ +
+ +

(c)
0 1()0 2(20 3'00 4'00 5'00 600
Distance
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EVALUATION OF G R A D E ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES 79

Gamma (h)
11- /~

CO = 1.0C= 10.3 A---80.0

10-897

6 /

3
2
1
+ + + ÷ + +

(d) o0 lbO 2bO 3'00 4bo 5bo ~

Distance

Gamma
11-
10- ,
/~ ÷

8 -~ + + + + + ÷ +

7 / ÷
÷
÷
CO = 1.5C= 8.2A=110.0
6 /
4
3
2
1

(e) 0
O lbO 2b0 3o0 400 5bo 6~1o
D~tance

Anisotropy Factors
1.4 / 3.9
/ ~ 1.6 ~~,a~-~

1.0

EllipseofAnisotropy
(f) ( /
Fig. 9. Spherical modelled semi-variograms for the silver assays of the 5220 bench. (a) N-S direction, ~ ) N E - S W
direction, (e) E - W direction, (d) S E - N W direction, (e) omnidirectional, (f) ellipse of anisotropy and anisotropy
factors.
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80 T. M. BELL & M. K. G. W H A T E L E Y

I I I I I I I I I I
o
0 Conventionalpercussiondrilling
O Reversecirculationdrilling O O
N 10200 Diamonddrilling (9 (9 -
(9 ~ Outlineof final pit Q ~ f ' - ( 9 ~ O O (9

N 10000 (9

N 9800

o (9 (9
o
N 9600 o

o (9 (9

N 9400 (9 O (9 O (9 (9 -

(3 O O O

N 9200 O (3
0 200 ft
I
O 0 5~0m
I I 1 1 I I I I I I
E 8000 E 8200 E 8400 E 8600 E 8800 E 9000 E 9200 E 9400 E 9600 E 9800

Fig. 10. Location of drill holes and intercepts with the 5220 bench. Grades were simulated by linear interpolation
from a triangulation model of the blast hole samples.

Table 3. Statistics for different grade estimation strategies calculated for the 5220 bench (total data set)

Inverse Inverse Inverse Kriged Linear Triangles

distance distance distance interpolation
(120m search) (330m search)

No. 974 1207 1388 964 1386 1386

Min. 0.001 0.001 0.015 0.001 0.001 0.012
Max 18.62 16.31 10.82 18.62 17.39 16.04
25th% 0.27 0.28 0.47 0.27 0.29 0.34
75th% 1.52 1.44 2.94 1.52 1.29 1.46
Mean 2.10 1.85 1.97 2.12 1.61 1.61
Median 0.63 0.64 0.82 0.66 0.59 0.63
Biweight 0.63 0.60 1.43 0.64 0.58 0.64
Trimean 0.76 0.75 1.26 0.78 0.69 0.76
Variance 13.00 8.29 4.59 13.07 6.38 5.36
Std dev. 3.61 2.88 2.14 3.61 2.53 2.31
MAD 0.40 0.36 1.01 0.40 0.36 0.37
Skewness 2.49 2.22 1.56 2.48 2.61 2.33
Kurtosis 9.01 7.32 4.76 8.96 10.14 8.41
Coef. var. 1.72 1.56 1.09 1.71 1.57 1.44
Downloaded from https://www.lyellcollection.org by Universidad Catolica Boliviana, Cochabamba on Jun 17, 2023

E V A L U A T I O N OF G R A D E E S T I M A T I O N T E C H N I Q U E S

Table 4. Statistics for the ore population (> 1.3 oz t-1) from different grade estimation strategies

Inverse Inverse Inverse Kriged Linear Triangles

distance distance distance interpolation
(120 m search) (330 m search)

No. 266 324 617 264 344 371

25th% 2.28 2.28 2.21 2.28 2.22 2.32
75th% 9.48 8.39 4.84 9.48 7.11 6.47
Mean 6.42 5.54 3.78 6.45 4.99 4.62
Median 5.94 5.03 3.17 5.93 4.30 3.96
Variance 21.63 11.83 4.34 21.66 10.21 7.43
Std dev. 4.65 3.44 2.08 4.65 3.19 2.72
Skewness 0.79 0.57 0.99 0.79 0.99 0.90

2.5~ 14 7- -25

2- 1 -12 6. . . . .
-2O

-10 5. . . .

1.5- -15
~4----

-10

2. . . .

0.5-
1

el I i i
lID 'D (330 m) Krige lID ' lib 330 &) Krige
1/D (120 m) Linear Triangle 1/D (120 m) Linear Triangle

A r i t h m e t i c Mean

Variance
.............
Blast Hole Mean

Blast Hole Variance

Fig. 11. Calculated mean grade estimates and variance for different estimation processes. (a) Global population,
(b) ore population > 1.3 oz t-1.
Downloaded from https://www.lyellcollection.org by Universidad Catolica Boliviana, Cochabamba on Jun 17, 2023

82 T . M . BELL & M. K. G. W H A T E L E Y

. :: .::ii:!i ~.:

~9 o,/t

~i2~iL ~ -- ~ .......
~ >,oc,
~E?2o
(a) (b)

II ~,oo

(c) (d)

(e) (f)

Fig. 12. Block models of estimated grade values. (a) Inverse distance with an 80 m maximum search distance, (b)
inverse distance with a 130 m maximum search distance, (e) inverse distance with an 330 m maximum search
distance, (d) kriged model, (e) simple linear interpolation, (f) triangulation model.
Downloaded from https://www.lyellcollection.org by Universidad Catolica Boliviana, Cochabamba on Jun 17, 2023

E V A L U A T I O N OF G R A D E E S T I M A T I O N T E C H N I Q U E S 83

II I

0o 1 II
400-

300-
,~ Inverse Distance ID
EL 200 . . . . "////// 120m Search
• ~///.///ID. 330m Search

Linear

O ~ j ~ ~ r f ~ j ~ ~ ~ Triangles
-10 -8 -6 4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
-9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9
Error (oz/t)

Fig. 13. Histogram of absolute errors for the different estimation processes.

Table 5. Statistics of absolute errors

Inverse Inverse Inverse Kriged Linear Triangles

distance distance distance interpolation
(120 m search) (330 m search)

25th°/e --0.23 --0.20 --0.001 --0.29 --0.16 -0.13

75th% 0.48 0.54 1.49 0.48 0.49 0.55
Mean 0.3 ! 0.29 0.57 0.30 0.20 0.21
Median 0.06 0.12 0.35 0.06 0.12 0.16
Variance 7.81 5.23 4.78 7.78 3.69 3.53
Std dev. 2.80 2.29 2.19 2.79 1.92 1.88
Skewness 0.74 - 0.72 - 2.94 0.75 - 1.62 -2.55

Table 6. Statistics of sqaured errors

Inverse Inverse Inverse Kriged Linear Triangles

distance distance distance interpolation
(120m search) (330m search)

25thO/o 0.02 0.02 0.06 0.02 0.02 0.02

75th% 1.32 1.29 4.23 1.32 0.81 0.96
Mean 7.90 5.30 5.09 7.86 3.73 3.57
Median 0.16 0.14 0.42 0.16 0.12 0.13
Std dev. 29.12 21.16 22.78 29.06 17.51 18.54
Skewness 6.85 10.41 17.42 6.87 15.97 18.00
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84 T. M. BELL & M. K. G. WHATELEY

~ Under Estimated Block Under Estimated Block

~LJ

• Over Estimated Block • Over Estimated Block

(ai) (aii)

• Over estimation by 1 St.d. • Over estimation by 1 St.d.

Under estimation by 1 St.d. ~ Under estimation by 1 Std.

(bi) (bii)

ated Block Under Estimated Block

............. ted Block • Over Estimated Block

(ci) (cii)

1 Std. y 1 St.d.

Under estimation by 1 Std. Under estimation by 1 Std.

(di) (dii)
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E V A L U A T I O N OF G R A D E ESTIMATION T E C H N I Q U E S 85

1ted Block ~ted Block

• Over Estimated Block • Over Estimated Block

(ei) (eii)

• Over estimation by 1 St.d. • Over estimation by 1 Std

......
Under estimation by 1 Std, 1"2:ilUnd. . . . timation by 1 St.d.

(fi) (fii)
Fig. 14. Error maps showing (/) blocks that are over or under estimated, (i/) zones of high error classed by
exceeding 1 standard deviation of the mean absolute error. (a) Inverse distance with an 80 m maximum search
distance, (b) inverse distance with a 130 m maximum search distance, (c) inverse distance with a 330 m maximum
search distance, (d) kriged model, (e) simple linear interpolation, (f) triangulation model.

40 •

Error Flucfuafions I IMean Squored Error

30

2- 20

b
A t
P)
~b
O--- m
s
o
~o
~o
< -1-

-10t
-20

~3- 1/rD r
T
1/D (330 m)
T T
Krige
r 40 1~ r
r
1/D (330 m)
"[
~drige
T
1/D (120 m) Linear Triangle 1/D (120 m) Linear Triangle

(a) (b)

Fig. 15. Graphs representing the calculated mean (tick) and expected fluctuations (vertical bar) about the mean of
(a) absolute errors, (b) standard error.
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86 T. M. BELL & M . K . G . WHATELEY

w r o n g if the spatial peculiarities are destroyed,
a l t h o u g h the global estimate can be correct. Yet
the calculation of a given ore envelope at a
stated cut off will be imprecisely located and
subsequent global estimate of ore grade material
will be i n c o r r e c t if spatial v a r i a b i l i t y a n d
structure are not h o n o u r e d .
References
ASHLEMAN, J. C. 1988. The Trinity Silver Deposit,
Pershing County, Nevada. Unpublished Field
Guide.
BELL, T. 1989. Ore reconciliation and statistical
evaluation of the Tt4nity Silver Mine, Pershing
County, Nevada. MSc Dissertation, University of
Leicester.
ISAAKS, E. H. & SRIVASTAVA, R. M. 1989. An
Introduction to Applied Geostatistics. Oxford
University Press.
JOHNSON, M. G. 1977. Geology and mineral deposits
of Pershing County, Nevada. Nevada Bureau of
Mines and Geology. Bulletin 80.
WHATELEY, M. K. G. 1992. The evaluation of coal
borehole data for reserve estimation and mine
design. In: ANNELS, A. E. (ed.) Case Histories and
Methods Mineral Resource Evaluation. Geologi-
cal Society, London, Special Publications 63, 95-
106.