Risk – Practical – Bayesian Networks

1. Consider the following diagram:

a) If there has been a flooding does that tell me something about the amount of rain that
has fallen?
b) The water level is high: If there has been a flooding does that tell me anything new
about the amount of rain that has fallen?

Answer:

a) Yes. In serial connections, the evidence is transmitted if there´s no evidence on “Water

level”. They are d-connected or are conditional dependent.
b) No. In serial connections, the evidence is not transmitted if there is evidence on “Water
level”. They are d-separated or are conditional independent.

Definition of Conditionally independent: A variable X is said to be conditionally

independent of another variable Y given knowledge Z, if obtaining knowledge about the
value of X does not change your beliefs about the value of Y when you already know Z.

2. Consider the following diagram.

a) Are A and C are d-separated?

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Risk – Practical – Bayesian Networks

blue path ✓

green path ✓

gold path ✓

purple path ✓

So A and C are d-separated

b) Suppose we learn something about M

• A and B are still d-separated

• The green path is now a

d-connecting path

• A and C are not d-separated, i.e. they are d-connected

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Risk – Practical – Bayesian Networks
3. Consider the following diagram:

a) Can knowledge of A have an impact on our knowledge of J?

b) Can knowledge of A have an impact on our knowledge of B, knowing E?
c) Can knowledge of A have an impact on our knowledge of G, knowing E and F?

Answer:

a) Yes, they form a serial connection and are d-connected.

b) Yes, they form a diverging connection but having hard evidence on E defines a d-
connected relation. Even there´s no hard evidence on E, it should be noted that A-E-J-
F-B form a serial connection and A and B are d-connected.

c) Yes, they form a serial connection and are d-connected. Even there´s no hard evidence
on E and F, it should be noted that A-E-J-F-D-G form a serial connection (A-E-J-F) and a
diverging connection (D-G), so A and B are d-connected.

4. Is E d-separated from A, assuming evidence on D?

Answer:

No, they are d-connected, because A and E are linked by two serial connections.

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Risk – Practical – Bayesian Networks

5. In both graphs, determine which variables are d-separated from A? (2.4 Nielsen)

(a) (b)

Answer:

a) We can reach I, starting from A, following I-G-D-B-A or H-F-C-A. So, A and I are d-
connected.
b) We can not reach F and C from A, since E-I-F is a diverging connection and imposes
d-separation between A and F and C.

6. Consider the network in Figure. Which conditional probability tables must be specified
to turn the graph into a Bayesian network? (2.12 Nielsen)

Answer:

Synthetically, the parent’s nodes have non conditional probabilities while children
nodes have conditional probabilities given the fathers.

7. Consider the Bayesian network in next Figure with conditional probabilities given in next
Table. Use your system to investigate whether A and C are independent. Use Netica to
prove it. (2.23 Nielsen)

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Answer:

A change in A affects C and a change in C affects A. So, A and C are dependents or d-

connected (as expected in a serial connection).

If B is instantiated, A and C become d-separated (as expected in a serial connection):