Risk Based Decision Making

Oleh:
 IK 01 IK 02

Konsep Dasar Risk and

Decision Making

Kompetensi Dasar
Mampu membuat
IK 03 keputusan berdasarkan IK 04
risiko

Risk Action Plan

Treatment Test
Materi

01
Konsep Dasar
Pembuatan Keputusan
Definisi

Menurut Kamus Besar Ilmu

Pengetahuan (Save,
2006:185), pengambilan
keputusan (Decision Making)
merupakan pemilihan
keputusan atau kebijakan
yang didasarkan atas kriteria
tertentu. Proses ini meliputi
dua alternatif atau lebih
karena seandainya hanya
terdapat satu alternatif tidak
akan ada satu keputusan
yang akan diambil
Langkah dalam
Decision Making

• Recognizing the problem

• Labelling the problem
• Analyzing the cause of the
problem
• Exploring optional solutions to the
problem
• Making a decision to solve the
problem
• Creating and following an action
plan to resolve the problem
Problems Recognition

• The symptom, be it trivial or

more serious, first identified is
not the whole problem hence
the “Iceberg rule”. Patience is
required to uncover the whole
problem by examination,
research, tabulation and study.
Techniques to recognize problems

• Symptom Identification
• Research Methods
• Data collection interviews
• Group brainstorming
• Etc.
 Problem Labelling

A label can be a phrase that highlights the

sides and key issue or major obstacle and is
accepted by all participants. It provides a
clear-cut reference point on which to focus
during the solution and decision-making
process. It should help to uncover the hidden
problem to be solved and to which all
participants agree on and therefor “own”
• Data Analysis
• Brainstorming
• Force-field analysis
• Key word analysis
 Problem Cause Analysis

This stage produces the true [root]

problem definition. [Steps 1 & 2 provide
general insight for sorting out causes]. The
root cause is a controllable, soluble force,
sometimes known as the limiting factor, or
missing link. It is the pivotal reason why
the problem started in the first place and
which must be dealt with to find a long-
term solution. This analysis also helps
identify contributing forces which make
the problem worst sort through partial
explanations and weeds out by-product
effects.
Methods used

• Brainstorming
• Positive/negative force analysis
• Charting unknowns
• Chronological analysis
• Repetitive why analysis
• Fishbone diagram
 Optional Solutions

This is to complete a list of conceivable

options addressing the root cause and
resolving the problem. Producing as
long a list as possible of courses of
action is important in order not to
select the first apparently reasonable
idea. It also ensures that all of the
group member’s pet solutions are
included and reviewed. Agreement on
the full list is important as it ensures
ownership of the whole list by all
members.
Decision Making
This allows one of the optional
solutions to be selected and a firm
joint decision on the course of
action. Evaluation consists of
eliminating the worse choices and
weighing up the remainder by
ranking, prioritizing and scoring.
Every realistic option, which
individual participants “own” part
of, should be on the remaining list
Once a decision is made on the
choice it should be adhered to.
Materi

02
Risk Management and
Decision Making
 Risk Mngmg’t and Decision Making

• Recognizing the problem

• Labelling the problem
• Analyzing the cause of the
problem
• Exploring optional solutions
to the problem
• Making a decision to solve
the problem
• Creating and following an
action plan to resolve the
problem
1. sasaran organisasi,
2. kriteria risiko dan
3. sumber daya yang ada.
4. pertimbangan cost benefit RENCANA TINDAK

5. Pandangan dan Implementasikan

komitmen stakeholders- Dan
nya. evaluasi

6. Risiko lanjutan dari

penanganan risiko
Materi

03
Risk Treatment
Risk Treatment Option
Contoh KK
Action Plan Criteria
Materi

04
Action Plan Test
Action Plan Criteria
 Apa yang harus diperhatikan
• Specific action
• Clear responsibilities
• Realistic deadlines
• Clear cut standards
• A coordinated sequence of actions
• A realistic and workable system
• Checkpoints for routine follow up
• Reliable measurement of results
• Needed personal development
• Correctly emphasized priorities
• Feasible contingency plans
• Agreement workable for all involved
• A good chance of achieving the ideal scheme