GH SunshineINTRODUCTION TO TREE DIAGRAM

A tree diagram is a pictorial representation of different ways of outcomes. Tree diagram can be a useful
device for keeping track of conditional probabilities when using multiplication and partition rules.

The idea is to draw a tree where each path represents a sequence of events.
- On any given branch of the tree, write the conditional probability of that event given all the events on
branches leading to it.
- The probability at any node of the tree is obtained by multiplying the probabilities on the branches leading
to the node, and equals the probability of the intersection of the events leading to it.

*The probabilities on the terminal nodes must add up to one.

 GH Sunshine CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

Conditional probability is the probability that event A will occur given that event B has occurred,
denoted as P(A | B). The symbol ‘|’ does not imply division. P(A | B) denotes the probability that
event A will occur given that event B has occurred.

A rule that can be used to determine a conditional probability from unconditional probabilities is:

P(A ∩ B)
P(A | B) = , if P(B) ≠ 0 and P(A ∩ B) = P(A | B) . P(B)
P(B)

where
P(A | B) = the conditional probability that event A will occur given that event B has occurred
P(A  B) = the unconditional probability that event A and event B occur
P(B) = the unconditional probability that event B occurs
GH Sunshine HOW TO USE CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY?

EXAMPLE 1 MORE EXAMPLE…

A and B are two events with P(A) = 0.3, P(B) = X and Y are two events independent events with
0.45 and P(A ∩ B) = 0.15. Find P(B | A). P(A) = 0.5, P(B) = 0.4. Calculate P(A | B).

Solution: Solution:
P(B ∩ A) P(A ∩ B)
P(B | A) = P(A | B) =
P(A) P(B)

0.15 0.2
= 0.3 = 0.4 = 0.5

= 0.5
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) x P(B)

= 0.5 x 0.4 = 0.2

 EXAMPLE 2
A bag contains of five yellow balls and three blue balls. Two balls are drawn one by one with replacement.
a) Draw a tree diagram.
b) Find the probability of at least one blue ball will be selected.

a) Outcomes b) Probability of at least one blue ball

n(A)
P A = will be selected
n(S) 5 Y YY
8 = YB + BY + BB
3
5 Y
5 3 3 5 3 3 39
8 = × + × + × =
8 B YB 8 8 8 8 8 8 64

5 or
3 Y BY
8 8 1 - Probability of no blue ball will be selected
3
B 8 = 1 − YY
B BB 5 5 39
=1 − × =
8 8 64
GH Sunshine
 EXAMPLE 3
A bag contains of five yellow balls and three blue balls. Two balls are drawn one by one without replacement.
a) Draw a tree diagram.
b) Find the probability of getting the first ball is blue and the second ball is yellow.

a) Outcomes b) Probability of getting the first ball

n(A)
P A =
4 is blue and the second ball is yellow
n(S) Y YY
7 = BY
3
5 Y
3 5 15
7 = × =
8 B YB 8 7 56

3 5 Y BY
8 7
2
B 7
B BB

GH Sunshine
 EXAMPLE 4
65% of the students go to college by their own transport, 20% by bus and the remaining students walk to college.
From past experience, 2% of the students with own transport were late for college and 4% of those who take buses
were late to college. Only 1% of those walking to college were late. Draw a suitable tree diagram.

Outcomes
* O: Own transport P L O) = 0.02
0.02 L
B: Bus
W: Walk 0.98
L: Late O L’ P L′ O) = 0.98
L’: Not late (early) 0.65
L P L B) = 0.02
0.04
0.20 0.96
B L’ P L′ B) = 0.96

L P L W) = 0.01
0.01
0.15 0.99
W L’ P L′ W) = 0.99

GH Sunshine
 EXAMPLE 5
In a Running Kids game, players are asked to find treasure boxes (X, Y and Z) hidden in a garage. Each box contains a total
of 10 gold coins and silver coins. The probability of finding the treasure box X, Y and Z are 0.3, 0.5 and 0.2, respectively.
Box X contains 6 gold coins, box Y contains 3 gold coins, while box Z contains 2 gold coins.
a) Draw tree diagram to summarize the above information. b) What is the probability of getting gold coins?
P(G) = P (X ∩ G) ∪ P(Y ∩ G) ∪ P(Z ∩ G)
* G: Gold
S: Silver = (0.3 x 0.6) + (0.5 x 0.3) + (0.2 x 0.2)
0.6 G

0.4 = 0.37
X
0.3 S
G c) If the gold coins is found, what is the probability that it is
0.3
0.5 from box X?
Y 0.7
S P(X ∩ G)
P(X | G) =
0.2 G P(G)
0.2
(0.3 x 0.6)
Z 0.8 =
0.37
S
14
= or 0.4865
17

GH Sunshine
 EXAMPLE 6
A manufacturing firm employs three designs for the development of a particular product. The three designs; A, B and C are used
for 30%, 20% and 50% of the product respectively. The defect rate for the three designs is as follows.
P(D|A) = 0.01 P(D|B) = 0.03 P(D|C) = 0.02

where D represents defective product.

a) Draw a tree diagram representing the situation. b) Find the probability that a product chosen at random
is free from any defect.
* D: Defect
D’: No defect P(D|A) = 0.01 P(D’) = P (A ∩ D’) ∪ P(B ∩ D’) ∪ P(C ∩ D’)
0.01 D
= (0.3 x 0.99) + (0.2 x 0.97) + (0.5 x 0.98)
0.99
A
0.3 D’ = 0.981
D P(D|B) = 0.03
0.03 c) If a random product was observed and found to be
0.2
B 0.97 defective, find the probability that design B was
D’ used.
0.5 D P(D|C) = 0.02 P(B ∩ D)
0.02 P(B | D) =
P(D)
C 0.98 P(D) = 1 – P(D’)
D’ (0.2 x 0.03)
= = 1 – 0.981
0.019
6 GH Sunshine
= or 0.3158
19
 GH Sunshine
QUICK CHECK QUESTIONS
Question 1
Three local pharmaceutical wholesalers (X, Y and Z) are competing for a contract to supply medicines to a Hospital ABC.
The probabilities that pharmaceutical wholesaler, X, Y and Z will win the contract are 0.35, 0.25 and 0.40 respectively. If
pharmaceutical wholesaler, X, Y and Z win the contract, the probabilities that they will make profits are 0.65, 0.85 and 0.55
respectively.
a) Draw a tree diagram for the above information.
b) Find the probability that pharmaceutical wholesaler will make profit.
c) Calculate the probability that the contract was given to pharmaceutical wholesaler X given that the contract is found to
be unprofitable.

Question 2
A transistor radio manufacturing factory has three machines, A, B and C. Machine A, B and C contribute 25%, 30% and 45%
respectively in the production of transistors. From past record, machine A, B and C produced 8%, 7% and 5% defective
transistors respectively.
a) Draw a tree diagram for the above information.
b) A transistor is chosen at random. Calculate the probability that the transistor is produced by machine C given it is
defective.

Answers:
49 45
1. b) 0.66 c) 2. b)
136 127