Daily Bullion Physical Market Report Date: 7th June 2023

Daily India Spot Market Rates Gold and Silver 999 Watch
Description Purity AM PM Date GOLD* SILVER*
Gold 999 60003 60096
6th June 2023 60096 71904
Gold 995 59763 59856
Gold 916 54962 55047 5th June 2023 59601 71462

Gold 750 45002 45072

2nd June 2023 60308 72358
Gold 585 35101 35156
1st June 2023 60157 71372
Silver 999 71688 71904
Rate as exclusive of GST as of 6th June 2023 Gold is Rs/10 Gm & Silver in Rs/Kg The above rates are IBJA PM Rates; *Rates are exclusive of GST

COMEX Futures Watch ETF Holdings as on Previous Close

Description Contract Close Change %Chg ETFs Long Short

Gold($/oz) AUG 23 1981.50 7.20 0.36 SPDR Gold 938.11 0.00

Silver($/oz) JUL 23 iShares Silver 14,519.41 0.00

23.67 0.04 0.15

Gold and Silver Fix Bullion Futures DGCX Gold Ratio

Description LTP Description Contract LTP Description LTP
Gold London AM Fix($/oz) 1961.90 Gold($/oz) AUG. 23 1972.4
Gold Silver Ratio 83.71
Gold London PM Fix($/oz) 1957.25 Gold Quanto AUG. 23 60005

Silver London Fix($/oz) 23.65 Silver($/oz) JUL. 23 23.67 Gold Crude Ratio 27.62

Weekly CFTC Positions MCX Indices

Long Short Net Index Close Net Change % Chg
Gold($/oz) 142504 34651 107853 MCX iCOMDEX
16094.41 32.27 0.20%
Silver 40262 29984 10278 Bullion

Macro-Economic Indicators

Time Country Event Forecast Previous Impact

7th June 06:00 PM United States Trade Balance -75.8B -64.2B Low
7th June 08:00 PM United States Crude Oil Inventories - 4.5M Low
Nirmal Bang Securities - Daily Bullion News and Summary
 Gold futures finished higher Tuesday for a second straight session as investors assessed the outlook for interest rates ahead of next week's
meeting of Federal Reserve policy makers. Investors await to see "what will happen with the recent stock market rally and if the disinflation
process will allow the Fed to skip a rate hike next week. Demand for safe-havens have somewhat eased up and traders are waiting to see if the
next market risk triggers a de-risking moment. Gold gained ground on Monday, lifted by a weaker-than-expected U.S. services index reading from
the Institute for Supply Management, which saw traders further ratchet down expectations for an interest rate hike when the Federal Reserve
meets next week. Fed-funds futures traders have priced in a probability of less than 20% for a quarter percentage point rate hike in June, down
from nearly 67% a week ago, but they still see a better than 60% chance that rates will rise by the end of the Fed's July meeting. More clear
direction from the Fed following the June 13-14 meeting could set the tone for the precious metal. The prospect of rising rates will presumably
weigh on the gold price until the meeting, in other words. However, a more pronounced and lasting correction is then on the cards after the Fed's
interest rate decision assuming our experts are right because the market's positioning would then turn out to have been too hawkish.

 Exchange-traded funds cut 78,138 troy ounces of gold from their holdings in the last trading session, bringing this year's net purchases to
280,867 ounces, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. This was the fifth straight day of declines. The sales were equivalent to $153.3 million
at yesterday's spot price. Total gold held by ETFs rose 0.3 percent this year to 94 million ounces. Gold advanced 7.6 percent this year to $1,961.86
an ounce and by 0.7 percent in the latest session. State Street's SPDR Gold Shares, the biggest precious- metals ETF, maintained its holdings in the
last session. The fund's total of 30.2 million ounces has a market value of $59.2 billion. ETFs also cut 589,758 troy ounces of silver from their
holdings in the last trading session, bringing this year's net sales to 2.66 million ounces. This was the fourth straight day of declines, the longest
losing streak since May 1.

Zimbabwean Gold Deliveries Fall 4% to 2,876 Kgs in May. Deliveries drop from 2,991 kgs a year earlier, Fidelity Gold and Refinery, a unit of the
central bank, says in an emailed statement. Supply by large-scale miners increased to 1,070 kgs from 1,056 kgs, while output by small-scale miners
declined to 1,806 kgs from 1,936kgs. Cumulative deliveries through May were 13% lower at 11,446 kgs. Zimbabwe is targeting production of 40
tons of gold this year.

Gold continues to be viewed favorably by central banks as a reserve asset. Nearly a quarter of 59 central banks surveyed intend to raise their
gold reserves in the next 12 months, World Gold Council's survey found. The survey, published on Tuesday (Jun 6), also showed that seven in 10
central banks believed global central bank gold reserves will increase in the next 12 months - a 10-point
increase from last year's survey results. Interest rate concerns prevailed as the top worry among respondents in influencing their reserve
management decisions. This is followed by concerns over inflation, geopolitical instability and environmental, social and governance issues.
Factors which were of lesser priority, as compared with last year's findings, include concerns over current or future pandemics, as well as digital
currencies. Respondents were also more pessimistic on the future role of the US dollar. Exactly half think that the percentage of reserves
denominated in US dollar would stand at between 40 per cent and 50 per cent in five years' time, down from the 51 per cent in Q3 2022. Close to
60 per cent thought that gold would account for more five years from now - at between 16 per cent and 25 per cent of total reserves, as compared
with the 15 per cent in Q3 last year. In April, global official gold reserves fell 71 tonnes, Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) World Gold
Council's monthly analysis - sourced primarily from the International Monetary Fund - indicated. This was chiefly due to Turkey's 81 tonnes gold
sale to satisfy strong local gold demand, the council said.

 Fundamental Outlook: Gold and silver prices are trading flat on international bourses. We expect prices to trade sideways to
higher for the day prices as cautious traders await the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision at its policy meeting next week,
although a softer dollar will keep bullions supported.

Key Market Levels for the Day

Time Month S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

Gold – COMEX July 1930 1945 1960 1990 2020 2045

Silver – COMEX Aug 23.10 23.45 23.70 23.95 24.10 24.40

Gold – MCX Aug 59500 59700 59850 60000 60250 60500

Silver – MCX July 70700 71200 71700 72300 72800 73300

Nirmal Bang Securities - Daily Currency Market Update
Dollar Index Market Summary and News
Consumer expectations for euro-zone inflation eased significantly in April, adding to the case
LTP/Close Change % Change for the European Central Bank’s historic ramp-up in interest rates to conclude this summer.
Expectations for the next 12 months fell to 4.1% from 5% in March, the ECB said Tuesday in its
104.13 0.12 0.12 monthly survey. For three years ahead, they slid to 2.5% from 2.9% — moving toward the 2%
medium-term target. German bonds extended gains after the release and traders pared bets for
further interest-rate hikes, though another half-point of increases as early as September remains
Bond Yield fully priced. The yield on two-year securities fell as much as 8 basis points. The survey’s recent
results show the choppy nature of the retreat in inflation, which hit a euro-era record last year.
10 YR Bonds LTP Change March’s survey revealed a “significant” upswing in price expectations. Indicators since then have
proved more encouraging. Inflation itself slowed to 6.1% in May, and an underlying measure
United States 3.6602 0.0328 stripping out volatile elements such as energy weakened more than expected to 5.3%. The
European Commission’s own survey of inflation expectations for the coming year fell to the
Europe 2.3690 -0.0020 lowest since 2020. With the ECB expected to raise rates next week, the survey will feed into the
debate about how long borrowing costs must rise to ensure inflation returns to target.
Japan 0.4260 -0.0080 Governing Council member Boris Vujcic told Bloomberg this week that price risks remain skewed
to the upside. Investors and most economists anticipate two more quarter-point increases in the
India 6.9780 -0.0170 deposit rate, to a peak of 3.75%. ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated Monday that rates
will rise further to regain control of prices, saying there’s “no clear evidence” that underlying
inflation has peaked.
Emerging Market Currency
Chinese authorities asked the nation’s biggest banks to lower their deposit rates for at least
Currency LTP Change the second time in less than a year, according to people familiar with the matter, marking an
escalated effort to boost the world’s second-largest economy. State-owned lenders including
Brazil Real 4.9115 -0.0072 Bank of China Ltd. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. and Bank of Communications Co.
were last week advised to cut rates on a range of products, including on demand deposits by 5
South Korea Won 1308.25 2.9000 basis points and three-year and five-year time deposits by at least 10 basis points, said the
people, who asked not to be identified. The request was communicated through the central
bank’s interest rate self-disciplinary mechanism, the people said. Banks are assessing the
Russia Rubble 81.5806 0.7037 request and may adjust rates as early as this week, said the people, adding that the move isn’t
mandatory. Big lenders currently offer an annualized rate of 0.25% demand deposits, and 2.6%
Chinese Yuan 7.1176 0.0209 and 2.65%, respectively, on three-year, five-year time deposits. The People’s Bank of China
declined to immediately comment. “China’s further monetary easing would have limited scope,
Vietnam Dong 23488 -12 given the Sino-US monetary policy split and the less effective monetary transmission,” said Bruce
Pang, chief economist for Greater China at Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. “Cutting deposit rates could
Mexican Peso 17.3859 -0.0192 provide incentive and capacity to banks for more credit support. It also means reduced chance
of policy rate cuts in the near term.” China’s 10-year government bond yield slipped 1 basis
point to 2.70% after the news. The onshore yuan weakened as much as 0.3%, touching a low of
7.1253 per dollar. The guidance, which follows similar rate reductions in September last year,
NSE Currency Market Watch will help alleviate pressure on lenders as they strive to balance shrinking margins and
government directives to beef up lending support to the economy.
Currency LTP Change
The Reserve Bank of India intensified its operations to remove cash from the banking system,
NDF 82.6 0.03 showing it wants to keep liquidity tight to rein in inflation. The central bank said Tuesday it
drained 323.8 billion rupees via a 3-day reverse repo auction at a cutoff rate of 6.49%. That was
USDINR 82.6675 -0.055 after it drained a combined 1.2 trillion rupees over two previous occasions this month. The
central bank’s actions suggest it doesn’t want to ease up in its fight against inflation until price
JPYINR 59.56 0.2825 gains are firmly under control. Even though inflation has eased in recent months, it still remains
above the 4% mid-point of the central bank’s target range. The central bank’s efforts to remove
GBPINR 102.635 0.1375 short-term funds from the system comes amid a jump in excess banking cash after the
withdrawal of high-value banking notes and a dividend payout by the RBI to the government.
EURINR 88.5175 -0.045 The RBI’s foreign-exchange operations, where it buys dollars to soak up foreign inflows, may also
be adding to liquidity. The RBI will maintain adequate liquidity in the banking system, Governor
USDJPY 138.9 -0.83 Shaktikanta Das said last month, without specifying any amount. The RBI drained 508.7 billion
rupees from the banking system on June 2 through a 14-day reverse repo auction, and it
GBPUSD 1.2409 0.0021 removed another 666.4 billion rupees via a four-day operation on June 5.
EURUSD 1.0698 -0.0017

Key Market Levels for the Day

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

USDINR Spot 82.1275 82.2275 82.4450 82.5525 82.6525 82.7550

Nirmal Bang Securities - Bullion Technical Market Update

Gold Market Update

Market View
Open 59869
High 60074
Low 59766
Close 59863
Value Change 15
% Change 0.03
Spread Near-Next 0
Volume (Lots) 3524
Open Interest 14655
Change in OI (%) 0.20%

Gold - Outlook for the Day

Gold prices are supported at lower levels like 1950-60 and likely to bounce back to 2000
we are recommending to go long for a pullback till 2000-2010

BUY GOLD AUG (MCX) AT 59850 SL 59680 TARGET 60100/60350

Silver Market Update
Market View

Open 71971
High 72500
Low 71380
Close 71601
Value Change -271
% Change -0.38
Spread Near-Next 0
Volume (Lots) 14698
Open Interest 13742
Change in OI (%) 1.03%

Silver - Outlook for the Day

Silver are supportive at lower levels of 23.60-50 and can bounce till 24.20-45. We are
recommending to go long between 23.70-80 for the target of 24.20-30.
BUY SILVER JULY (MCX) AT 71700 SL 71100 TARGET 72500/73000
Nirmal Bang Securities - Currency Technical Market Update

USDINR Market Update

Market View

Open 82.695
High 82.7175
Low 82.6125
Close 82.6675
Value Change -0.055
% Change -0.07
Spread Near-Next -0.1178
Volume (Lots) 1608857
Open Interest 2918941
Change in OI (%) 0.36%

USDINR - Outlook for the Day

USDINR future had a gap-down opening at 82.69 followed by a session and continued with
profit taking and price consolidates in narrow range. The pair has formed inside bar
candle. The pair has closed above 10-days EMA placed at 82.66. Negative indication on the
daily chart by the momentum indicator RSI trailing between45-55 level, MACD given
crossover above zero-line. We are anticipating USDINR May futures to trade in the range
of 82.45–82.70 for today.

Key Market Levels for the Day

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

USDINR June 82.3550 82.4525 82.5550 82.7575 82.8525 82.9550

Nirmal Bang Securities – Commodity Research Team

Name Designation Email

Kunal Shah Head of Research kunal.shah@nirmalbang.com

Devidas Rajadhikary AVP Commodity Research devidas.rajadhikary@nirmalbang.com

Harshal Mehta AVP Commodity Research harshal.mehta@nirmalbang.com

Ravi D’souza Sr. Research Analyst ravi.dsouza@nirmalbang.com

Smit Bhayani Research Associate smit.bhayani@nirmalbang.com

Utkarsh Dubey Currency Research Associate Utkarsh.dubey@nirmalbang.com

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